Liam Murphy labeled Travis Hunter a priority target in Best Ball drafts and a worthwhile swing in season-long formats at the right price. Hunter’s two-way profile (wide receiver plus cornerback) generated 19.4 fantasy points per game in his healthy outings last season, and Murphy expects Colorado’s pass-heavy tilt under Sean Lewis to continue. He acknowledged that setting weekly line-ups could be tricky because Hunter’s spike weeks may be unpredictable, but noted that managed-league ADP will likely be cheaper since running backs get pushed up. In Best Ball, Murphy views Hunter as a potential ‘set-and-forget’ scorer by mid-season thanks to top-tier talent, massive snap share and built-in correlation for late-season CFB slates.

Liam Murphy said fantasy managers are "bored of Allgeier" but he still views the Falcons backup as a smart late-round grab. Drafting Allgeier lets Murphy comfortably stop at just five running backs because, as he put it, "if Bijan fails then Allgeier benefits." The pairing creates inexpensive contingent upside without sacrificing slots needed for other positions.

Liam Murphy said Jalen Tolbert is "currently the wide receiver two of Dallas" and therefore a late-round name who can supply multiple usable weeks in Best Ball Mania formats. Drafting Tolbert as his seventh wideout lets Murphy remain light at the position while still capturing upside tied to the Cowboys’ starting lineup. He framed Tolbert as a better bet than most receivers in the same ADP range simply because the role is already there rather than hypothetical.

Responding to questions about why some rankers are fading Jameson Williams, Murphy said he’s still loading up on the Lions speedster. Williams owns true 40-point single-game potential, plays half his schedule in a dome, and is tethered to a Ben Johnson offense that finished top-six in explosive pass rate last season. Trade rumors don’t scare Murphy—he only worries about suspensions, and there’s no credible smoke on that front. At a mid-Round-9 cost, Murphy believes drafters are paying for Williams’ floor while getting free access to a league-winning ceiling comparable to what Gabe Davis flashed in 2022 playoff formats.

Liam Murphy called Justin Fields a "mega winner" of the 2025 draft because Pittsburgh passed on quarterbacks in every round, virtually guaranteeing Fields a season-long audition. That job security, paired with his perennial top-three rushing workload at the position (9.6 designed runs per game last year), gives drafters a high weekly floor and 30-point ceiling. Murphy likes pairing Fields with a pocket passer like Brock Purdy, then stopping at two quarterbacks, arguing the combo delivers both weekly stability and tournament-winning upside without spending extra draft capital on a third passer.

Murphy warned that Kenneth Walker’s boom-bust weekly stat lines make him a shaky pick in Eliminator contests where consistency wins. Walker delivered six games under nine fantasy points last season and shares touches with Zach Charbonnet, so the Seahawks back too often leaves you short of the weekly median you need to advance. Murphy is still willing to take Walker in spike-week driven tournaments, but in Eliminator drafts he prefers steadier backs who catch passes or own the goal-line role, naming Rachaad White and Aaron Jones as superior choices in the same ADP tier.

Liam Murphy declared he is "still a fade" on Najee Harris even after the veteran slipped to pick 82. He argued that new OC Arthur Smith’s run-heavy reputation shouldn’t overshadow Jaylen Warren’s rising snap share (25 % of third-down plays in 2024). Murphy expects a near-even touch split and doubts Harris’ 3.9 yards per carry over the last two seasons will suddenly spike behind Pittsburgh’s still-shaky interior line. With Aaron Jones and Tony Pollard available in the same zone—backs Murphy believes have cleaner workloads—he said the opportunity cost of clicking Harris remains too high for a player whose weekly ceiling hinges on multi-TD games.

Liam Murphy noticed Tucker Kraft falling well past pick 150 after Green Bay drafted slot weapon Matthew Golden, but he’s still loading up. Murphy thinks "there’s a real chance Kraft year three is simply an elite player," pointing to the tight end’s 2.01 yards per route run over the final six games of 2024 (TE7 in that span). He dismissed Golden as a slot-only prospect unlikely to cap Kraft’s middle-of-field targets and highlighted Jordan Love’s red-zone tendency—Packers threw 12 of their final 14 inside-the-10 plays to tight ends. Murphy sees Kraft as this year’s Sam LaPorta: an athletic Y-tight end who can win seams and find volume in Matt LaFleur’s play-action heavy scheme. He advised scooping Kraft every time he drifts into the 13th round.

Liam Murphy grabbed C.J. Stroud in the middle rounds and said it "could be the year Stroud goes for 5,000 yards." He cited Houston returning all three top wideouts—Nico Collins, Tank Dell, and Stefon Diggs—while adding first-round tackle Taliese Fuaga as evidence the front office expects a vertical shoot-out offense. Although the Texans’ offensive line remains "not great," Murphy argued Stroud’s elite pocket processing (league-best 1.88 seconds to throw on quick-game concepts) minimizes pressure sacks. If Bobby Slowik maintains last year’s 60 % neutral-situation pass rate, Murphy projects 620–640 attempts, which puts the sophomore within shouting distance of the rare 5K club. Stacking Stroud with Nico Collins keeps cost manageable while preserving exposure to a potential fantasy QB1 season at a Round-8 price tag.

Liam Murphy called Aaron Jones a screaming value after pick 110, noting that drafters are treating him like a committee back even though the Vikings gave him $7 million guaranteed and no rookie runner higher than Round 7 stands behind him. Murphy contrasted Jones with Najee Harris, who still faces Jaylen Warren, and Tony Pollard, who must hold off rookie Jaylen Wright, saying "one of these things is not like the others." He set Jones’ floor at 600 rushing yards and six touchdowns—numbers he posted in a DOWN season in Green Bay—and expects Kevin O’Connell to lean on the veteran at the goal line the way he once used Dalvin Cook. With Minnesota projected to play faster and throw more under Sam Darnold/J.J. McCarthy, Murphy believes Jones’ target volume rebounds to the 55–60 range, giving him top-20 per-game upside at an RB3 price.

Liam Murphy was thrilled to see De’Von Achane slide to pick 22, calling the dip "crazy" and encouraging drafters to scoop the explosive back whenever he falls past the 2-3 turn. Murphy pointed out that Miami spent draft capital shoring up the offensive line and defensive front—signals the franchise is "running it back" with the same hyper-efficient rushing attack that let Achane average 7.8 yards per touch as a rookie. With no meaningful additions behind him on the depth chart and Mike McDaniel still scheming space touches, Murphy believes Achane owns legitimate league-winning upside and should be treated as an every-week RB1 who belongs in the mid-second round.

Liam Murphy labeled DJ Moore a loser of the draft, arguing that Chicago’s selection of pass-catching tight end Colston Loveland at 10th overall and slot receiver Jermaine Burton early in Round 2 materially caps Moore’s target upside. He noted that Ben Johnson’s offenses have historically funneled volume to the slot, and said Moore now competes with Keenan Allen, Burton and Loveland for middle-of-field looks on a team that still projects as run-leaning with Caleb Williams. While acknowledging Moore’s talent, Murphy warned that paying the current late-third/early-fourth price assumes last year’s 26 % target share repeats. He advised letting someone else draft Moore unless he slips a full round.

Liam Murphy urged drafters to let Troy Franklin slide past his current late-Round-12 ADP, calling the fourth-round rookie "a significantly worse pick for likelihood to provide points than Michael Wilson or Wan’Dale Robinson." Murphy reminded viewers that Day-3 wide receivers almost never deliver startable weeks in Year 1 and said managers blindly clicking Franklin because of ADP are "getting slaughtered." He added that Franklin is strictly a splash-play flier on a Broncos offense that already features Courtland Sutton, Marvin Mims and Josh Palmer, making a consistent target share unlikely. Murphy’s advice: wait several rounds or skip him entirely and take veterans with real weekly floors.

Liam Murphy cautioned that Quinshon Judkins’ ADP bakes in bell-cow usage that may not happen. He expects veterans Samson and Ford to siphon far more work than drafters anticipate, saying he "wouldn’t blink an eye" if Ford plays 50 percent of snaps and handles most passing-down duties for the first eight weeks. With three viable backs in the room, Murphy called the situation "very muddy," likening it to last year’s RJ Harvey committee headache. While he still ranks Judkins as the first rookie running back to select, Murphy thinks the median projection is riskier than similarly priced options like James Cook, Breece Hall, or Chase Brown and advised either waiting for a discount or building rosters that can absorb a slower start.

Liam Murphy rejected concerns that shaky quarterback play should push Chris Olave down draft boards. He reminded listeners Olave has been a perennial Round-2 fantasy pick and said any Saints starter is still likely to throw 200-220 yards per game—more than enough for a 30-percent-target-share receiver. If Derek Carr simply holds the job all season, Murphy thinks Olave becomes a ‘mega value’ at his current third-round price tag.

Liam Murphy pushed back on current Rome Odunze ADP, arguing that both Odunze and DJ Moore need to be drafted later now that they share a depth chart. He has Moore ranked a tier lower than the market and Odunze even further down, reasoning that Chicago’s passing volume and Justin Fields’ uncertain job security limit the weekly ceiling for both wideouts. Murphy advised letting others chase rookie hype and instead scooping Odunze only after a multi-round slide.

Drafting in the late rounds, Murphy elected Zack Moss instead of sixth-round rookie Taj Brooks, explaining that Moss has already shown he can command touches whenever healthy. He reminded viewers that Moss averaged 17.9 DraftKings points in the three games he topped 20 carries last season and now backs up Chase Brown in what projects to be a top-five pass-rate-over-expectation Bengals offense. Murphy likes pairing Moss with Brown to secure Cincinnati’s entire backfield at minimal cost, noting that any missed time by Brown would vault Moss into must-start territory.

Murphy grabbed Dontayvion Wicks in the 20th round, saying he "doesn’t think [Wicks] should be here" and noting that the Virginia product could flat-out beat out Romeo Doubs. Even after Green Bay drafted rookie Matthew Golden, Wicks offers 4.44 speed, a 26 % college dominator, and shown trust from Jordan Love late last season (three games with 10+ DK points Weeks 15-18). He’s Murphy’s preferred long-shot piece of a Packers offense projected top-10 in pass volume.

Murphy continues to draft Kendre Miller in the 18th round, calling him the clear RB2 in New Orleans. The former third-round pick sits behind 29-year-old Alvin Kamara, whom Murphy labeled "fragile" after back-to-back seasons missing time. Miller produced 6.2 YPC at TCU and would inherit goal-line work in what projects to be an above-average offense with Derek Carr, Chris Olave and Malik Nabers. Murphy views Miller as the classic league-winning handcuff whose contingent value is mis-priced.

Murphy highlighted Chig Okonkwo as a perfect third-tight-end dart. Okonkwo closed last season with weekly DraftKings point totals of 8, 10, 9, 11, 5 and 7 despite erratic QB play. Tennessee has no credible WR2 behind DeAndre Hopkins, and rookie QB Cam Ward could lean on athletic middle-of-the-field targets if he wins the job. With four-catch upside baked in, Chig offers spike-week potential at the 16th–17th-round cost Murphy prefers when he’s already secured an elite TE.

Murphy remains well above market on Chris Godwin, calling the fall into the 70s "disrespect." He thinks drafters are double-counting risk—first, a vague injury concern, and second, fear that rookie Emeka Egbuka might bump Godwin outside. Godwin has averaged 138 targets the last three healthy seasons and still posted a 24 % target share in 2023 while playing hurt. With Baker Mayfield back and Tampa’s defense likely to regress, Murphy expects more shootouts and likes scooping discounted exposure to a proven slot alpha.

Murphy argued that first-round pick Xavier Legette should not be going roughly 70 spots after 34-year-old Adam Thielen. The rookie offers week-17 correlation in the NFC South (Bucs, Saints, Falcons, Panthers) and a clear path to WR1 targets on a depth chart sorely lacking explosive playmakers. Drafting before the NFL releases the schedule lets you fall into that divisional stack at a steep discount, making Legette one of Murphy’s favorite late-eighth/early-ninth round clicks.

Liam Murphy said Dak Prescott is a smash at current DraftKings Best Ball ADP because quarterbacks with nowhere near his track record go in the same range. Prescott just delivered 4,516 passing yards and 36 touchdowns, and Dallas kept its pass-heavy nucleus together while adding second-round rookie WR Adonai Mitchell. Murphy’s plan is to pair Dak with only one late flier rather than burning a roster spot on a third QB, freeing capital for extra upside at the onesie positions.

Liam Murphy purposely selected Khalil Shakir once he had drafted Josh Allen, emphasizing that drafters should "be breaking ties really throughout the draft toward your stack, especially late." Shakir provides cheap exposure to Buffalo’s high-octane passing game and raises the ceiling of an Allen roster through correlated spike weeks while keeping roster construction flexible elsewhere. Murphy’s takeaway: in the double-stack era of DraftKings best ball, snagging low-cost ancillary Bills like Shakir materially boosts playoff and finals upside.

Liam Murphy drafted Joe Mixon in the fifth round and argued his median projection is comparable to Josh Jacobs, Bucky Irving and Chase Brown. Mixon carries non-statistical red flags—age, off-field baggage and a new coaching staff—but Murphy thinks Houston firing OC Bobby Slowik (whose run-run-pass sequencing was painfully predictable) could make the offense more pass-heavy and raise Mixon’s touchdown equity even if raw carry counts dip. At his current DK ADP, Murphy sees Mixon as a still-volume-driven RB who can pay off in a more efficient, higher-scoring Texans attack.

Liam Murphy identified Jerome Ford as a timely swing in the double-digit rounds, saying it is "totally possible he just opens the year starting" for the Browns while Nick Chubb rehabs. Even if Chubb makes it back, Murphy expects Ford to at least hold the RB2 role over fourth-round rookie Trevor Samson, giving him weekly flex utility and contingent bell-cow upside in a Kevin Stefanski offense that ranked top-10 in red-zone rush rate. The cost is negligible compared to the payoff if Chubb suffers a setback, making Ford a classic asymmetric bet for tournament finals.

Liam Murphy urged drafters to grab J.K. Dobbins in the late rounds while he is still a free agent, predicting that "if he signs, he’s going up in price." Murphy compared the situation to last summer’s Dalvin Cook ADP rip after landing with the Jets and argued any team that brings Dobbins in will be doing so for meaningful touches, not depth. Because drafters are overweight rookies like Taj Brooks, he prefers the veteran who has already flashed 20-point DFS weeks and expects even a modest contract to push Dobbins into the single-digit rounds by August, creating instant closing-line value.

Liam Murphy called Adam Thielen an automatic click once he slides past ADP, reminding viewers the veteran averaged 15 DraftKings points per game last year and routinely goes a round earlier on DK than on Underdog. In full-PPR, his underneath role meshes perfectly with Bryce Young stacks, and Murphy joked, “Thielen is winning me $2 million in Week 17—clip it,” referencing the Panthers’ likely negative game scripts against the Jaguars that week. Age concerns do not bother him because target competition behind Diontae Johnson is unproven. Murphy sees Thielen as a cheap 8-10 catch floor who can still pop for 25 in the playoff pods.

Liam Murphy said Bryce Young is a rock-solid third quarterback for DraftKings best-ball rooms because Carolina is "pretty much locked into the season" with him after last year’s benching fiasco. Murphy noted Young finished 2023 on an uptick and thinks the front office will give the 1.01 every opportunity to develop under Dave Canales instead of yanking him for Andy Dalton again. That job security, combined with a cheap price tag that allows easy stacking with Adam Thielen or rookie WRs later, makes Young an ideal safety net in 3-QB structures where you just need steady weekly starts to access the high ceilings of your other passers.

Liam Murphy pushed back on chat complaints that taking Joe Burrow at the 4-5 turn is “dead.” He noted that drafters fixated on ADP are ignoring one-week playoff variance: you only need a 6-7-turn player to outscore the 4-5-turn player he replaced in a single December elimination week for the reach to pay off. Burrow’s ceiling with Ja’Marr Chase remains 35-plus DK points, and that stack will be plentiful anyway because both players are so popular. Front-loading the combo gives you freedom to hammer undervalued RB/WR pockets later instead of praying Burrow lasts to Round 6. Murphy labeled it a perfectly defensible tournament path as long as you lean into unique secondary correlations elsewhere.

Calling him a "solid second running back," Liam Murphy endorsed grabbing Aaron Jones in the seventh round. Jones carries injury risk—hence the discount—but still projects for double-digit touches and most of Minnesota’s high-value work after signing a one-year, prove-it deal. Murphy argued that at this price all you really need is 10–12 PPR points per week, which Jones has hit in 35 of his last 46 healthy games. He compared the selection to accepting volatility on wide receivers earlier and said the Vikings’ dome schedule plus Kevin O’Connell’s top-10 red-zone pass/run balance keeps Jones’ touchdown equity intact even if Ty Chandler siphons a series or two.

Liam Murphy warned that Sam LaPorta is wildly overpriced on DraftKings best ball, going around pick 30 compared to pick 70 on Underdog. Because DK drafters lean heavier toward full-PPR tight ends and are busy forcing Lions game stacks, you are paying a two-round premium over guys like T.J. Hockenson or Kyle Pitts. Murphy said he is happy to scoop LaPorta when the room lets him fall on Underdog, but on DK he would rather push the position, collect middle-round value like Dallas Goedert, and spend that early-third capital on wide receivers whose ceilings are harder to replace in a three-WR format.

Liam Murphy said Keaton Mitchell should stay in your late-round running-back rotation. He reminded viewers how explosive Mitchell looked before the ACL tear—turning 47 rookie-year touches into 396 yards—and pointed out that Baltimore did not spend meaningful draft capital on another back despite holding a pile of picks. With Derrick Henry now the starter, Mitchell functions as pure contingency and change-of-pace juice; if Henry’s 30-year-old legs falter, the depth chart behind him is only Justice Hill for passing-downs work. That combination of injury contingent volume and home-run speed gives Mitchell week-winning upside that you can grab well after Round 15 on DraftKings best ball boards.

Liam Murphy labeled Kendre Miller a must-sprinkle pick in the final round. He still believes Miller is the clear RB2 in New Orleans thanks to third-round draft capital and a skill set that overlaps Alvin Kamara’s. Kamara will be 29 by Week 1 and missed time in three straight seasons, so Murphy views him as ‘fragile’. If Kamara’s knee or ankle flare up again, Miller would step into 15-plus touches and goal-line work on an offense that quietly finished top-12 in red-zone trips. Because Miller’s ADP sits in the 18th, the downside is negligible while the upside—another late-season rookie running-back breakout—can swing $2 million finals. Murphy compared the cost-benefit to last year’s Kyren Williams surge and said he is happy to keep betting on that profile until the room adjusts.

Liam Murphy told viewers to keep scooping Chris Godwin whenever he slips into the 70s overall on DraftKings or Underdog. Drafters are fading him for two reasons—lingering injury speculation and anxiety that rookie Emeka Egbuka will kick Godwin outside—but Murphy is unconvinced either fear meaningfully caps Godwin’s production. He reminded the chat that Godwin’s slot-only seasons have produced WR2 numbers on a 92-catch pace, and the Bucs have shown zero urgency to move him from his most efficient alignment. At a WR24 price tag, Murphy projects a 14-point full-PPR floor with weekly 25-point upside that plays perfectly in DK’s three-wide-receiver format. The falling ADP also unlocks easy Week-17 NFC South game stacks against the Saints, Falcons and Panthers, which he wants before the schedule release inevitably tightens prices.

Liam Murphy snagged Dallas Goedert in Round 12 and called it “a gift” that he’s going after Kyle Pitts and Hunter Henry. Goedert ranked sixth among tight ends in both target rate (23 %) and yards per route (1.80) last season, yet is being drafted outside the top ten at the position. Murphy loves this range as a tight-end sweet spot that lets drafters hammer RB/WR early; Goedert’s full-PPR floor plus a Week 17 Cowboys shootout give him the ceiling needed to advance in one-week playoff formats.

Liam Murphy emphasized breaking late-round ties toward your stack and used Khalil Shakir as the example. After grabbing Josh Allen early to stay ahead of QB inflation, Murphy happily scoops Shakir in the double-digit rounds instead of forcing pricier Bills. Shakir logged an 83 % route rate over Buffalo’s final six games and produced 2.17 yards per route in that span, showing the slot job is his. In a full-PPR environment those short-area targets can spike, and pairing them with Allen offers correlated upside in Week 17 playoff pods while freeing earlier picks for other positions.

Liam Murphy called D’Andre Swift one of the best running-back buys on DraftKings. He argued Swift is "not that different" from Tony Pollard—Pollard averaged 13.0 DK points per game, Swift 12.0—but costs two full rounds less. Murphy labeled Swift "certainly a better pick than Brian Robinson or Caleb Johnson" and a discounted version of Joe Mixon, who averaged 18.8. He acknowledged Chicago could still sign Nick Chubb or J.K. Dobbins yet refuses to fade every player who might face future competition from an aging back with unknown health. In full-PPR best ball he wants Swift’s pass-catching chops in an offense that should improve with Caleb Williams, predicting ADP will climb once drafters realize the upside.

Liam Murphy said drafters should keep taking Rashee Rice in the middle rounds even with a looming suspension. He pointed to Rice’s three fully healthy weeks last year—20, 18, and 32 DK points—as proof he can already deliver first-round fantasy production. Murphy expects the Chiefs to throw more if their defense regresses and the re-tooled offensive line holds, giving Rice a legitimate path to a 25-point weekly ceiling. Hollywood Brown’s arrival and rookie burner Xavier Worthy do not scare him because Rice is the underneath target hog in Patrick Mahomes’ progression. Murphy believes embracing that risk is the type of bet that wins single-week playoff pods and the $2 million top prize.

Liam Murphy selected DeVonta Smith at the Round-3/4 turn and predicted his ADP will rise as summer progresses. He likes pairing Smith with CeeDee Lamb for a Week 17 NFC East shootout correlation and noted that Smith has repeatedly landed on Murphy’s own finals teams—including his $1 million DK win—thanks to the receiver’s spike-week profile. Murphy views Smith as a leveraged alternative to pricier WRs in the same tier, expecting multiple 30-point outings that are critical for advancing through single-week playoff pods in DraftKings’ $2 million flagship.

Liam Murphy endorsed taking Josh Allen a round or two earlier than you might on Underdog, explaining that quarterbacks fly off the board on DraftKings—often by the 1-2 turn—so securing an elite passer in the third prevents having to reach for lesser options later. He added that Allen’s dual-threat scoring profile is a unique differentiator in top-heavy playoff pods and lets drafters back-load stacks with cheaper Bills like Khalil Shakir or Dalton Kincaid. The move also helps build a structurally sound roster because you can then hammer RB/WR value pockets in Rounds 4-9 instead of chasing QB.

Liam Murphy said drafters should not hesitate to take CeeDee Lamb in the mid-first on DraftKings, even over Bijan Robinson, calling Lamb’s target upside "monstrous" and noting he was "borderline the 1.01 last year." Murphy’s logic is that Lamb’s weekly ceiling is built on elite volume rather than fragile rushing efficiency, which is especially valuable in DK’s full-PPR, 3-WR format. Because wide-receivers he likes tend to go later on Underdog but are pushed up on DK, locking in Lamb early gives you a bankable 25-plus-percent target share and leaves flexibility to scoop value backs in the middle rounds. He framed it as a high-leverage play for top-heavy finals where a 30-point WR week can swing $2 million.

Davis Mattek explained that J.K. Dobbins’ current restricted-free-agent status is comp-pick related only—he must sign somewhere before July 27 or the Chargers automatically retain his rights. Mattek expects a deal well ahead of that deadline, noting Baltimore used the same mechanism with Diontae Johnson before he inked elsewhere. Once Dobbins puts pen to paper, Mattek projects a sharp ADP spike, especially if the landing spot offers a clear path to early touches. He floated Dallas as the dream scenario, estimating Dobbins would jump to an 11.5 half-PPR points-per-game projection in a Tony Pollard-style role. Because current drafts price in uncertainty, Mattek is scooping Dobbins multiple rounds ahead of market as a classic news-driven value that could settle in the RB25 range by August.

Davis Mattek said he "doesn’t want to pass" on Isaac Guerendo in the final rounds because the rookie owns an eye-popping 9.98 Relative Athletic Score and, in Mattek’s words, is "literally the most athletic running back in the NFL right now." Mattek is unbothered by fourth-rounder Jordan James, calling James "not good" and predicting Kyle Shanahan will lean on Guerendo’s 4.33 speed for explosive change-of-pace snaps behind Christian McCaffrey. With the 49ers annually top-10 in rush EPA and known for turning raw speed backs like Raheem Mostert and Elijah Mitchell into fantasy difference-makers, Mattek views Guerendo as a high-leverage final-round bullet whose ADP will rise once training-camp clips of long runs circulate.

Discussing roster construction for Underdog’s Eliminator, Davis Mattek said managers should be "more Week-1-brained" at running back because only 0.7 percent of teams survive to Week 7. That makes veteran workhorse types—Najee Harris, Aaron Jones, Tony Pollard, Javonte Williams—far more viable than their season-long ADPs suggest. Mattek prefers drafting two of those backs early and skipping an eighth wide receiver to add a third quarterback or tight end. The logic: half-point PPR scoring and head-to-head matchups reward 20-point touch monopolies these backs can still deliver before wear-and-tear becomes an issue. Harris, for example, averaged 19.6 carries over Pittsburgh’s first six games last year; similar early-season volume could single-handedly advance Eliminator rosters before their fragility shows up in December.

Liam Murphy highlighted fourth-round rookie Isaac Guerendo as a must-mix final-round pick, noting the former Louisville back logged a 9.98 Relative Athletic Score that makes him "literally the most athletic running back in the NFL right now." Murphy is unfazed by Jordan James landing in the same backfield, calling James "not good" and emphasizing Kyle Shanahan’s history of turning raw speed backs (Mostert, Mitchell) into sudden fantasy factors. Guerendo’s 4.33 forty and 40-inch vertical translate to home-run Best Ball upside if Christian McCaffrey misses any time or Shanahan institutes another hot-hand rotation. Murphy prefers grabbing Guerendo before locking in a third quarterback, arguing the athletic profile gives drafters an asymmetric bet that can pay off in Week-15-to-17 tournament stages.

Liam Murphy called Geno Smith a clear post-draft winner and "a great second quarterback" for Underdog’s Eliminator format. Seattle passed on quarterbacks until late Day-3 while Minnesota imported Sam Darnold—"a loser" with significant bench risk—cementing Geno’s job security. Murphy noted that stacking still pays off in head-to-head Eliminator matchups, and grabbing Geno after you control the Seahawks pass-catcher pool creates weekly 30-point upside spikes that can single-handedly win a matchup. Because Eliminator advances only 0.7 percent of entries by Week 7, Murphy prefers rostering three QBs; Geno’s ADP outside the top-150 lets drafters allocate early capital elsewhere before locking in a veteran who averaged 17.4 fantasy points in healthy games last season and now faces dome games in Weeks 15-17 (ARI, ATL, IND).

Davis Mattek said drafters who faded Chase Brown during the pre-draft process "got punished" because Cincinnati declined to add meaningful back-field competition. Mattek argued Brown belongs at the 2–3 turn alongside Devon Achane-type profiles. His case: 1) Zack Moss is a low-ceiling placeholder with poor yards-per-carry and success-rate numbers, giving Brown a clear runway to 65-plus percent of the touches. 2) Joe Burrow historically funnels targets to his backs when pressured (23 percent check-down rate in 2023), and Brown already flashed pass-game chops with 14 receptions on only 143 snaps last year. 3) The Bengals project for a top-10 scoring offense; if they find themselves in a must-win stretch, "he’s going to be on the field" for every high-leverage snap because the coaching staff trusts him in protection. Mattek compared the ceiling outcome to Achane’s 2023 stretch—explosive chunk plays plus goal-line work—but at a multi-round discount the market has not corrected.

Davis Mattek urged drafters to grab Rashee Rice immediately, arguing the only thing keeping him out of the first round is suspension uncertainty. Mattek said he would rank Rice right behind Puka Nacua—well inside the top-12 overall—if the off-field cloud disappeared, and he expects the market to treat him that way once clarity comes. Because early-summer best-ball rooms still price in a discount, Mattek views current drafts as the rare chance to build unique Patrick Mahomes stacks and WR rooms that won’t be available once Rice’s ADP rockets into the 1-2 turn range. He reminded listeners that Rice closed last season commanding double-digit targets in six of his final eight games, finishing top-10 league-wide in yards per route run over that span, and Kansas City did nothing meaningful at wide receiver in the draft. Mattek called the pre-hype discount "the easiest click on the board" for anyone chasing tournament-winning upside.

Davis Mattek said he is ranking Zay Flowers noticeably below ADP and treating him as a boom-bust WR4 you only sprinkle when stacking Lamar Jackson teams. Mattek’s main gripe is the weekly box-score pain: Flowers ripped off plenty of SportsCenter moments last year, yet finished with just four touchdowns and a string of 4-for-64 type lines that never cracked best-ball starting lineups. Mattek even noted Willie Sneed owns the same single-season TD high (four) in this Ravens offense, underscoring how difficult it is for Baltimore wideouts to deliver big scoring seasons in a low-volume, run-centric scheme. While a "miracle" 10-TD outlier is possible on any Jackson-led team, Mattek believes Flowers’ realistic range of outcomes is more like 1,000 yards and four scores—hardly worth his current sticker price. He is shifting exposure toward cheaper upside swing wideouts and only clicking Flowers when he drifts a full round past ADP.

Liam Murphy argued that TreVeyon Henderson’s early-Round-5 ADP (low-50s overall) is overpriced given the Patriots’ likely struggles. Henderson would need Detroit-style Gibb/Montgomery efficiency to pay off, yet New England ranked bottom-five in both red-zone trips and explosive-play rate last season. Murphy conceded Henderson’s talent but noted he still shares early-down and goal-line work with Rhamondre Stevenson, capping weekly upside on a team projected for just six wins by Vegas. Unless the offensive line and rookie quarterback tandem make a massive, unlikely leap, Henderson profiles as a game-script-sensitive back whose ceiling is tied to touchdown variance. Murphy is sliding him down his ranks behind similarly priced receivers and prefers taking Quenchon Judkins two rounds later.