Ducey likes Jacory Croskey-Merritt over 37.5 rushing yards at -110. Washington hammered the ground game in Week 1—32 carries, 220 yards, 6.9 YPC—while the Packers’ defensive stats were flattered by Detroit abandoning the run after an early 10-point hole. PFF still graded Green Bay’s run D only 18th. Croskey-Merritt, a seventh-round rookie who averaged roughly 4.0 YPC in preseason, earned a 33% snap share and ripped off 10 carries for 82 yards (including a 42-yard burst) versus New York. Ducey believes the Commanders’ run-heavy identity and the tailback’s explosive first impression make this number a bargain.

Ducey recommended betting Micah Parsons 1+ sack at +102. The Lions still allowed four sacks to Green Bay last week despite grading 17th in pass-blocking and Parsons picked up one in what Ducey called a "quiet" debut. On Thursday he’ll hunt Commanders rookie LT Josh Conerly Jr., whose 12th-worst PFF grade at the position included two sacks surrendered to Brian Burns. Ducey labeled Parsons "arguably the best pass-rusher in the game" and expects the mismatch against an overmatched rookie to cash the prop.

Kenny Ducey backed Jayden Daniels to top 50 rushing yards at +107 in his Commanders-Packers same-game parlay. Ducey pointed out that Green Bay’s coverage earned the 4th-best PFF grade in Week 1, yet its pass rush underwhelmed—something he expects to change with new arrival Micah Parsons screaming off the edge. Washington’s line let Daniels operate with just 2.77 seconds to throw (13th-fewest among 33 QBs) against a weaker Giants front, so Ducey anticipates even less pocket time on Thursday. The "second-year" quarterback already ran 11 times for 68 yards last week and has logged 9+ carries in seven of his last nine games (playoffs included), averaging 60 rushing yards. With volume, matchup, and recent form all pointing the same way, Ducey likes the alt-line over for Daniels’ legs.

Alex Christenson advised backing Zach Ertz for an Anytime Touchdown on TNF. He pointed out that Jayden Daniels looked Ertz’s way early and often—Ertz ranked second on Washington in total targets and led the club in red-zone targets during Week 1, cashing one for a score. Christenson believes Green Bay’s secondary holds up well on the perimeter, funneling passes inside where the veteran tight end still excels at finding soft spots despite diminished speed. With a projected shootout and Ertz commanding Daniels’ trust near the goal line, Christenson likes the + odds for the TE to score again in Week 2.

Alex Christenson said Romeo Doubs is mispriced for Anytime Touchdown markets on Thursday Night Football. Doubs logged a massive 97% snap share in Week 1—no other Packers wideout cleared 66%—while finishing second on the team in targets and first in receiving yards. Christenson expects sportsbooks to adjust soon but notes they still hang + odds on Doubs as if he were a WR2/3. With a game total of 5.5 touchdowns and both offenses projected to push the pace, he views Doubs’ every-down role and established chemistry with Jordan Love as the best touchdown bet on the board.

Haslbauer’s model immediately installed Scheffler at No. 1, and the analyst expects the world-beater to treat this ‘team-building’ stop as a business trip. Silverado de-emphasizes SG: Off-the-Tee and rewards elite second-shot play, a blueprint tailor-made for Scheffler’s Tour-leading SG: Approach and Birdies-or-Better rates. Add in plus Par-5 scoring and solid Poa splits, and Haslbauer believes bettors shouldn’t be scared off by a short price or DFS salary—Scheffler projects for the highest win equity in the field and remains a justifiable anchor for outrights, one-and-done pools, and high-stakes DFS builds.

Grillo, the 2015 winner at Silverado, cracked sixth in Haslbauer’s opening model thanks to an elite blend of Par-5 scoring, California Poa putting, and a proven track record on comp layouts such as Colonial and Detroit Golf Club. The Argentine sits top-10 in both Course History and Comp-Course History and remains one of the few players who can gain either by pounding driver or threading fairways on the 7,123-yard par-72. Haslbauer highlighted Grillo’s consistent SG: Approach numbers from 100-150 yards and his ability to convert birdies on easier setups, making him an early outright target and a core DFS option despite the presence of multiple Ryder Cup heavyweights.

Haslbauer listed Akshay Bhatia among his first clicks once odds drop, noting the left-hander grades out above average in all six core stats (SG: Ball Striking, Good Drives, Prox 75-125, Par-5 scoring, Comp-Course history, SG:P on Poa) and again across the ten most predictive categories at Silverado. Bhatia also ranks top-10 in Haslbauer’s mixed-condition comp-course model (Twin Cities, Colonial, Waialae, Detroit, TPC San Antonio), reinforcing his fit on short par-72 tracks where aggressive drivers can still separate. With birdies-or-better gained and proximity wedges emphasized in the analyst’s model, Bhatia’s ceiling makes him an appealing mid-tier outright and a high-upside DraftKings play.

John Haslbauer said J.J. Spaun is his favorite early outright at Silverado, arguing the California native owns the rare three-leg combo of scorching form, sticky course history, and an ideal stat profile. Spaun ended the ’25 season with a U.S. Open win and a playoff loss at the FedEx St. Jude, then punched his ticket onto the USA Ryder Cup roster. He has finished T11 or better twice in his last four trips to Napa and, per Haslbauer’s model, is one of only eight players who grade out above average in every key metric he’s weighing this week – SG: Ball Striking, Good Drives Gained, proximity 75-125 yards, Par-5 scoring, Comp-Course history, and SG: Putting on Poa over the last 36 rounds. With wedge-heavy approach buckets, four scorable par-5s, and tricky California Poa greens all lining up with Spaun’s strengths, Haslbauer believes the 34-year-old will be the most motivated Ryder Cupper in the field and worth jumping on as soon as books open.

Haslbauer highlighted Emiliano Grillo in Tier 4 as his favorite 80-1+ dart because the Argentine is simultaneously eighth in SG: APP, seventh in SG: T2G, and top-25 in SG: P on Bermuda over the last 12 rounds—making him one of only eight players to clear the tee-to-green AND putting thresholds he deems essential this week. Grillo also ranks top-15 in Opportunities Gained and Proximity 125-200 yards, the key scoring zone at Southwind, and has gained at least 0.5 strokes per round on approach in five of his last six starts. With a no-cut format guaranteeing four rounds for his volatile putter to heat up, Haslbauer believes Grillo carries legitimate top-5 equity and is mis-priced in the 100-1 range for both outright tickets and top-10 props.

Henley grades No. 1 in Haslbauer’s weighted model that blends SG: T2G, SG: APP, weighted Bermuda putting, Fairways Gained, and Scrambling. He is one of only six players to check every box across the 10 highest-correlated stats to success at Southwind, and stands out as the only player in that subset currently top-10 in both SG: P (Firm & Fast Greens) and Double-Bogey Avoidance— critical with 11 holes bringing water into play. Over his past 12 rounds Henley ranks fourth in SG: T2G and first in SG: P on Bermuda, while his tidy driving accuracy (6th in Fairways Gained season-long) mitigates Southwind’s penal rough. Haslbauer expects books to open Henley around 28-1 and calls that a must-bet outright number given the Georgia native’s proven heat tolerance and strong comp-course results at PGA National and Harbour Town.

Haslbauer plans to build his early card around Tommy Fleetwood if books hang anything north of 25-1. Fleetwood is top-3 in Haslbauer’s custom model (behind only Scheffler and Henley) thanks to elite recent form: he sits fifth in SG: T2G over his last 12 rounds, eighth in Fairways Gained, and inside the top-20 in Scrambling Gained and Proximity 150-175 yards— the approach window that accounts for nearly one-third of Southwind iron shots. He owns positive histories at both East Lake and Sawgrass, two of Haslbauer’s primary comp courses featuring the same zoysia/Bermuda mix and water-lined angles. The Englishman’s Bermuda putting spike weeks (gained strokes in five of his last six starts on the surface) give him the ceiling to cash an outright in a no-cut event where four rounds are guaranteed.

John Haslbauer said Viktor Hovland is his favorite outright bet in the Without-Scheffler market because the Norwegian perfectly mirrors the profile of the last five winners at TPC Southwind— shaky off the tee at times but lethal with mid-irons. Hovland ranks top-10 in SG: APP over the last 12 rounds, checks both SG: T2G and SG: P (Bermuda) boxes, and is one of only eight players to grade top-25 in those combined metrics. Course history is elite and trending upward (T59 → T36 → T20 → T13 → solo 2nd in 2024, when he nearly erased Hideki Matsuyama’s eight-shot Sunday lead). Haslbauer noted Southwind plays like a Florida-style target track with firm, fast Bermuda greens and 11 water-guarded holes—conditions Hovland already mastered earlier this year while winning the Valspar at Innisbrook. With many stars limping into the playoffs, Haslbauer expects Hovland’s sharp approach play and proven playoff ceiling (two FedEx Cup wins since 2023) to push him over the top at +1800 or longer.

While Scheffler tops every category in Haslbauer’s model— No. 1 SG: T2G, SG: APP, SG: ARG, Bogey Avoidance and 5-year Major history— the tout warned bettors not to blindly eat the +450 outright number. Scheffler has yet to record a top-5 in four Open starts, and Haslbauer believes Portrush’s unpredictable coastal weather can neutralize his ball-striking edge. With the field strength loaded and wave-draw variance looming, Haslbauer said he is "less intimidated by Scheffler this week than any other event" and recommends fading him in outright markets and paying down in DFS for similarly high-floor players like Henley or Fleetwood.

Henley ranked 2nd— behind only Scottie Scheffler— in Haslbauer’s full statistical model thanks to No. 4 SG: APP, No. 6 Driving Accuracy and top-10 weighted putting on slow greens. He also appears in the top-10 list for comp-course history and is one of just ten players to grade above average in the tout’s custom quartet of Accuracy, Approach, Around-the-Green and Putting. Slotted in Tier-3 of the DraftKings pool, Henley should be sub-10% owned and is trading in the 55-to-1 outright range. Haslbauer advised leveraging the Georgia Bulldog in DFS cash builds and sprinkling a half-unit outright because "Portrush rewards precise iron play when winds are calm, and nobody’s irons are hotter in 2025 than Henley’s."

Haslbauer singled out Patrick Reed as the value name he intends to bet once tee-time waves are final. Reed is one of only ten players who rate above average in Driving Accuracy, SG: APP, SG: ARG and Weighted Putting over the last 36 rounds— the exact four-pillar profile the tout believes wins at Portrush’s tiny, undulating greens. Reed also boasts four straight made cuts at The Open and ranks top-20 in Haslbauer’s links-course comp model. With sportsbooks still offering triple-digit odds and a Tier-4 DraftKings salary, Haslbauer labeled Reed a "sleep-through-the-noise" sleeper who can spike if wind turns Portrush into a short-game contest.

Haslbauer placed Tommy Fleetwood in his Tier-2 player pool and said he will be on the betting card once the weather draw is known. Fleetwood gained 8.1 strokes tee-to-green at Portrush in 2019 and played in Sunday’s final pairing with winner Shane Lowry. The Englishman ranks 3rd in Haslbauer’s custom model, sitting top-15 in SG: APP, Driving Accuracy and Scrambling on slow fescue greens, while also appearing in the top-10 list for comp-course history (Royal Liverpool, Pebble, Sawgrass). With projected DraftKings pricing in the low $9K range and outright odds around 30-1, Haslbauer views Fleetwood as a high-floor core play in DFS and a live outright because “accurate plodders can follow the Brian Harman blueprint” at Royal Portrush.

John Haslbauer said Tyrrell Hatton should anchor outright cards at Royal Portrush. He noted Hatton is "a top-10 talent in the world" whose game is tailor-made for Portrush’s tiny greens and penal run-offs. The Englishman owns eight of his 10 professional wins on European soil and just picked up a third Alfred Dunhill Links title, reinforcing his comfort in heavy wind and fescue. Hatton arrives in red-hot form after T14 at the 2025 Masters and solo 4th at the U.S. Open, and he finished T6 the last time Portrush hosted in 2019. Haslbauer’s model ranks him 4th overall thanks to elite iron play (top-10 SG: APP) and above-average driving accuracy, scrambling and slow-green putting—all key stats the tout is emphasizing this week. With books still hanging mid-20-to-1 numbers, Haslbauer called Hatton “the first click” for both betting cards and Tier-2 DFS lineups.

John Haslbauer pegged Nick Taylor as a contrarian GPP flyer whose dreadful course history (no top-40s in eight trips) will keep ownership suppressed. Taylor thrives in raucous environments—witness wins at the RBC Canadian Open and WM Phoenix Open—and has already claimed the 2025 Sony Open on another short, accuracy-centric track. He arrives with five top-25s in his last six starts, including a T23 at last week’s U.S. Open, suggesting his all-around game is peaking. Haslbauer prefers the fresh form over the negative history and recommends peppering Taylor in DFS pools and sprinkling a small outright at 125-1 or longer.

John Haslbauer endorsed Denny McCarthy as a longshot outright and GPP staple, arguing that the Travelers’ trend toward lower scoring elevates putting skill—McCarthy’s calling card. The Maryland native leads the field in SG: Putting and is enjoying his best overall statistical season, having not missed a cut since the 2024 Open and posting 10 top-25s in 20 starts. He improved ball-striking enough to contend on longer tracks like Quail Hollow and Torrey Pines, so a return to the tour’s second-shortest course should be an additional boon. After a career-best T7 here in 2023, Haslbauer believes McCarthy can convert at + odds while offering ceiling ownership leverage in DFS.

John Haslbauer highlighted Brian Harman as the safest value on the slate, noting six top-10 finishes in his last seven Travelers starts. TPC River Highlands rewards accuracy and tidy wedges—exactly the profile that helped Harman win the 2023 Open and finish T3 at the RBC Heritage, another short Pete Dye venue, earlier this season. Although his recent form looks merely average, he has made 7 of his last 8 cuts and already notched a win this year at the Valero Texas Open, giving him both floor and ceiling. Haslbauer views him as a plug-and-play cash-game anchor and a solid outright each-way at triple-digit odds.

John Haslbauer said Si Woo Kim is a buy-low tournament play and outright longshot at the Travelers Championship. Kim owns victories at Pete Dye tracks TPC Sawgrass and The Stadium Course and now gets another short, positional Dye setup that should accentuate his aggressive ball-striking. Despite no prior top-10s at TPC River Highlands, Kim enters with four top-15 finishes over his last eight starts and ranks top-10 in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green and in total strokes gained under easy-scoring conditions across his last 36 measured rounds. Haslbauer expects the combination of elite recent form and historically muted ownership (due to the quiet course history) to create leverage in DFS contests and juicy + odds in the outright market.

John Haslbauer circled Patrick Cantlay as a mis-priced contender whose skill set mirrors Oakmont’s demands. Cantlay tops the Tour in Approach Putting on fast greens and sits inside the top-10 for SG: Total at recent U.S. Opens, never missing the cut in the last five editions. He is one of only nine players ranking above average in Total Driving, Driving Accuracy, proximity from 100-150 yards, and Approach Putting—four stats Haslbauer weighted heavily. Oakmont’s 28-yard fairways and 8,500-sq-ft greens place a premium on lag putting and bogey avoidance; Cantlay checks both boxes, sitting top-5 in three-putt avoidance and SG: Total in major championships over the last five years. With a balanced tee-to-green profile and odds expected around +2500, Haslbauer views Cantlay as the best mid-tier outright and a rock-solid DFS core play for balanced builds.

Haslbauer plans to grab early Bryson DeChambeau tickets, arguing Oakmont accentuates the two-time champion’s edge. Bryson is one of only fourteen players to make every U.S. Open cut the last five years and sits top-3 in Haslbauer’s statistical model thanks to elite Total Driving, SG: Total in difficult scoring, and recent comp-course form. Although Oakmont’s fairway bunkers reduce ‘bomb-and-gouge’, Haslbauer stresses that DeChambeau still gains distance while ranking above-average in accuracy and SG: Off-the-Tee in difficult driving conditions. He dominated Winged Foot 2020 with the same strategy and arrives with "great momentum" after consecutive top-10 major finishes in 2025. Oakmont’s two reachable par-5s and sub-350-yard risk-reward 17th provide wedge opportunities that separate the longest hitters. Given that Bryson leads the field in Doubles Avoided and sits inside the top-10 for Approach Putting on fast greens, Haslbauer believes anything longer than +1400 represents value.

John Haslbauer spotlighted Viktor Hovland as his favorite early outright for Oakmont, arguing the course hides Hovland’s one weakness while showcasing his strengths. Hovland has gained strokes around-the-green in 12 of 19 career majors because thick USGA rough turns scrambling into a guessing game, neutralizing touch—exactly what Oakmont’s 5-inch bluegrass will do. The 27-year-old already owns 11 worldwide wins, a 2023 Tour Championship and four major top-10s since 2022. In 2025 he’s won the Valspar and logged five top-25s in ten starts. He ranks No. 1 in the field for SG: Ball-Striking on Difficult Courses, top-5 in SG: Approach over the last 36 rounds and top-7 in SG: Total at majors over the last five years. Haslbauer noted his T3 at Oak Hill 2023—another Hanse-restored, thick-rough track—as proof he thrives in this archetype. With Oakmont’s oversized Poa greens allowing safe bail-outs and two-putt pars, Haslbauer believes Hovland’s elite long-iron play and total driving profile give him his best chance yet to collect a first major at projected +2200 odds.