Geoff Fienberg took Washington because their posted win total sits at 9.5 despite last year’s NFC Championship appearance. He noted the Commanders still possess multiple offensive weapons and “what could be a top-three quarterback if he continues to play like he did last year.” The mismatch between ceiling and line made Fienberg view Washington as the clear value of the round.

Geoff Fienberg said he would have taken the Buffalo Bills first overall in the win-totals draft because, after breaking down the entire AFC slate on an earlier show, he views Buffalo’s 2025 schedule as “a cakewalk.” Fienberg believes that soft run of opponents positions the Bills to smash their posted win total and contend for the league’s best record, which is why he tried to trade up for the #1 pick before happily grabbing them at third overall.

Jake Ciely said he bumped Ollie Gordon up to RB38 in his final rankings and is drafting him ahead of every other back in the late-round handcuff tier. Ciely stressed that Gordon will open Week 1 as Miami’s number-two running back—and could be the starter if De’Von Achane’s injury lingers—on an offense that deliberately feeds its secondary back 8-12 touches and most of the goal-line looks. That weekly workload gives Gordon touchdown equity and "flex with benefits" value that backs such as Tyler Algier, Jordan Mason, Quinshon Judkins, Ray Davis and Tank Bigsby lack because they "aren’t definitively getting touches." Ciely views Gordon as a high-floor RB3 now with contingent RB1 upside if Achane misses time.

Jake Ciely advised fading Joe Mixon entirely, ranking him 66th overall and saying he would only consider Mixon with a final-round pick if an IR spot is available. Mixon is already ruled out for at least the first four games and the Texans have publicly stated they don’t know when he’ll be ready after that. Ciely noted Mixon’s 2024 RB2 finish was purely volume-driven despite the veteran looking "the worst he’s ever looked," and he expects that volume to disappear this year. He labeled Mixon "a void in 2025" and urged fantasy managers to spend late picks on higher-ceiling stashes like Will Shipley instead of clogging the bench with an aging back who may never be activated.

Ian Hartitz urged drafters to grab Ollie Gordon in the double-digit rounds after a perfect injury run-out in Miami. With Jaylen Wright ruled out for Week 1, De'Von Achane nursing a calf injury, and Alexander Mattison done for the year, Gordon is locked into at least the No. 2 job—and could open the season as the Dolphins’ lead back. Hartitz reminded listeners that Gordon posted a 2,000-yard, 20-TD campaign at Oklahoma State and was once mocked in the first round before falling to Round 6. Hartitz moved Gordon to RB 38 in his updated rankings, noting Miami routinely feeds its No. 2 back goal-line work. He expects Gordon to headline early waiver-wire columns if managers leave him undrafted.

Ian Hartitz called Theo Johnson a "freak among freaks" and moved him to the top of his late-round tight-end targets after the Giants released Greg Dulcich. Hartitz highlighted Johnson’s 9.93 Relative Athletic Score—second-best for a tight end since 1987—and pointed out that New York trusted him with an every-down role last year, something many athletic TEs never earn. If that role produces even 80–90 targets, Hartitz believes Johnson’s combination of size, speed and red-zone usage can outscore replacement-level options such as Zach Ertz, Isaiah Likely or Dalton Schultz. He advised drafting Johnson as soon as the top nine tight ends are gone because Johnson has a realistic path to a top-10 finish at the position.

Jake Ciely said Deebo Samuel should command roughly 100 targets in Washington while still getting designed carries, projecting about 20 combined touches in many games. Ciely argued that Commanders quarterback Jayden Daniels was forced to throw to sub-par pass-catchers last season, so Samuel instantly becomes the most reliable option in the offense. Even if Samuel falls short of the 130-target elite tier, the mix of triple-digit looks and backfield usage is enough for him to finish comfortably in weekly wide-receiver-three range for season-long fantasy line-ups.

Ian Hartitz warned managers to stop paying up for Baker Mayfield. Tristan Wirfs is expected to miss time, Chris Godwin and Jalen McMillan will open the season on the shelf, and Mayfield already shows classic touchdown-regression indicators. Hartitz would rather wait several rounds and select upside rookies like Caleb Williams or Drake Maye, arguing that the depleted offensive line and receiving corps make it unlikely Mayfield matches last year’s production. In his view there is no reason to burn early-double-digit draft capital on Mayfield in any season-long format.

Jake Ciely advised treating Chris Godwin as the perfect stash-and-smash pick. Ciely dropped Godwin to WR42 because Tampa may hold him out until October, but he believes the team is merely being cautious. Once fully healthy, Ciely projects Godwin to deliver weekly top-20 production for roughly the final nine fantasy weeks. Because most league platforms let managers place any player listed as "Out" on IR, drafters can grab Godwin, park him, and enjoy a free roster spot while waiting for a difference-making second-half return.

Ian Hartitz said Mike Evans is his favorite dart throw in the murky Round-4 wide-receiver tier. With Chris Godwin unlikely to play until at least October and Jalen McMillan also sidelined, Hartitz expects Evans to monopolize Tampa’s targets. He reminded listeners that ESPN’s Open Score graded Evans as one of the league’s best separators last year, showing no age-related decline, and noted that Evans has averaged more fantasy points per game with Baker Mayfield over the past two seasons than he did with Tom Brady. Hartitz believes that if Evans stays healthy for all 17 games we could be talking about a top-three fantasy wideout by the end of September, making his current ADP a clear buying opportunity in season-long drafts.

Ian Hartitz ranked Terry McLaurin well below the consensus, citing target-volume worries. Even with Noah Brown as his only competition last season McLaurin saw just 117 targets, and Hartitz believes Cliff Kingsbury’s spread scheme plus the addition of Deebo Samuel will keep the share in the low-20-percent range. Hartitz also expects touchdown regression—McLaurin ‘lived and died’ on six-point plays in 2024—and would rather chase players like Xavier Worthy or Calvin Ridley who could see 30-40 more looks. He views McLaurin as a volatile WR2 rather than a bankable WR1.

Jake Ciely never moved Terry McLaurin out of his top-15 wide receivers during the hold-in and explained why he is staying there. McLaurin already has chemistry with quarterback Jaden Daniels and full command of Cliff Kingsbury’s playbook, so missing preseason reps was a non-issue. Ciely projects roughly nine touchdowns—down from last year’s 11 but still strong—and expects Daniels to throw 20-30 more times than he did as a rookie. Because McLaurin rarely leaves the lineup and offers a solid weekly floor, Ciely prefers him over similarly ranked but more fragile options.

Ian Hartitz called Javonte Williams the most mis-priced running back on the board. Dallas never signed or traded for competition, so Williams enters Week 1 as the unquestioned Cowboys RB1, yet his ADP is still outside the top ten rounds because drafters spent the summer panicking about a potential veteran addition. Hartitz argued that locking up the starting backfield in a Dak-led offense after the WR50-55 range is an easy value play and recommended scooping Williams any time he slips into double-digit rounds instead of chasing satellite backs with lower weekly ceilings.

Jake Ciely said Austin Ekeler is the one running back in the current RB22-30 blob who does not bring bench-level downside. Ciely pointed to Ekeler sitting in street clothes for the final preseason game. The other young backs played as proof the staff already views him as the lead option. Even if bruiser Chris Rodriguez pops up for a few goal-line carries, Ekeler’s pass-game role is locked in, giving him an RB2 floor and RB1 ceiling in half- and full-PPR formats. Ciely advised taking Ekeler over similarly priced backs whose workloads could evaporate by mid-season.

Jake Ciely warned drafters not to assume Jauan Jennings will keep his current snap share all season. Even if the wideout is active in Week 1, Ciely doubts the role is "locked in" once Brandon Aiyuk’s contract dispute is resolved. He pointed out that after Jennings’ Week 2 breakout last year, the receiver managed more games under 10 PPR points than over, highlighting volatility. With Ricky Pearsall flashing as the preferred Deebo Samuel replacement and Shanahan historically shrinking his WR rotation once his starters are healthy, Ciely has a 20-spot gap between Pearsall (WR23) and Jennings (WR43). He advised treating Jennings strictly as a back-end WR3 or bye-week fill-in rather than a weekly starter.

Jake Ciely said he has moved Ricky Pearsall all the way up to WR23 on his latest board and believes 120 targets are a realistic ceiling in Kyle Shanahan’s offense. Ciely argued that Pearsall is occupying the same manufactured-touch role that normally belongs to Deebo Samuel, while Brandon Aiyuk’s eventual return threatens Jauan Jennings rather than Pearsall. He noted Jennings produced more single-digit fantasy games than double-digit ones after his early-season spike last year, whereas Pearsall will benefit from Brock Purdy’s top-five efficiency metrics (69% completion rate, 8.9 YPA in 2024). Because the 49ers’ passing tree is so condensed, Ciely is comfortable valuing Pearsall in the same tier as Jameson Williams, Marvin Harrison and Garrett Wilson for season-long drafts.

Ian Hartitz called Brian Robinson an elite contingency bet now that Kyle Shanahan has publicly labeled him the 49ers’ No. 2 running back and Isaac Guerendo aggravated a shoulder injury. Hartitz slotted Robinson around RB50, the same range he previously kept Guerendo, and said he’s comfortable grabbing him in Round 12 as an upside RB4/5. He reminded listeners that Elijah Mitchell, Jordan Mason and even Mike Davis have flashed league-winning value whenever Christian McCaffrey misses time in Shanahan’s system, so Robinson automatically joins the ‘top-five handcuff’ conversation even if he offers no weekly standalone role while CMC stays healthy.

Jake Ciely said Christian McCaffrey is still the safest first-round pick on the board even after San Francisco acquired Brian Robinson. Ciely expects the passing-game usage to stay intact because the 49ers’ wide-receiver room is in shambles: Brandon Aiyuk is reportedly out six weeks, Jauan Jennings is iffy, DeMarcus Robinson is suspended, and Skyy Moore just arrived. With Kyle Shanahan needing someone he trusts on high-percentage routes, CMC should keep his heavy target share. Ciely conceded the rushing workload might slide a touch—Robinson could steal ‘four carries that would have been Guerendo’s’—but called that marginal and not enough to move McCaffrey from the top of his rankings.

Chris Mills recommended two ways to fire on Sepp Straka at East Lake. First, he likes Straka at +175 for a First-Round Top-10 because the no-cut format gives Straka four cracks at a blow-up, and history says one of those rounds will be low: Straka has posted 6-under or better in seven of his last 11 no-cut events. Second, he’s betting Straka +275 to top the Continental Europe trio of Viktor Hovland and Ludvig Aberg. Mills argues Straka’s 2025 resume—two wins and five additional top-15s—beats both rivals, while Hovland has been "hit-or-miss" and Aberg "still cannot close on Sundays." East Lake’s southeast bermuda layout rewards accuracy over distance, another Straka strength: he ranks 4th on Tour in fairways hit and gains 0.42 strokes per round putting on bermuda. Mills calls +275 "crazy value" for a player whose game fits the course and who routinely spikes low rounds.

Chris Mills said to take Harris English at –107 in the 72-hole head-to-head against Keegan Bradley at the Tour Championship. Mills watched English’s on-course “walk-and-talk” interview earlier in the week and came away convinced English is relaxed and "playing with house money" after climbing into the FedExCup top six. Mills likes that English has already locked up a trip to the 2026 Masters, so the only thing left is chasing the $18 million purse, freeing him to stay aggressive. He trusts English’s history at accuracy-centric East Lake (three straight finishes of T22 or better) and points out that Bradley’s irons have cooled, losing 0.4 strokes-gained approach per round over the last two playoff starts. Mills expects English’s steadier tee-to-green form (gaining in all four SG categories at Olympia Fields) to win the matchup by two or more shots.

Pat Mayo floated a straight-forecast angle: instead of the ‘without Scheffler’ market, bet Scheffler 1st and Cameron Young 2nd at 45-1. He reasoned that the exact-finish ticket offers more than double the non-Scheffler odds (≈20-1) while capturing the same thesis that Scheffler dominates and Young is best of the rest. Mayo admits you have fewer outs, but likes the payout if you’re already building around that leaderboard shape.

Mills suggested pivoting from Scheffler’s +150 outright price to the Top-American market. By removing European threats like McIlroy, Aberg, Fleetwood and Hovland, Scheffler only has to beat the U.S. contingent, with the next shortest American being Henley at +1100. Mills recommends staking an extra unit there if you already like Scheffler to win, calling it ‘way more sense’ than the low outright.

Ben Everill said Straka is ‘being disrespected’ at +5000 in a 30-player playoff finale after a season of steady performances. He argued that, with only Scheffler taking real win equity, everyone else’s number should be shorter. Everill likes the form Straka showed all year and says the missed start was family-related, not injury-related, so +5000 is more than fair if you want a non-elite outright.

Mills flagged Sepp Straka at +185 for a Round-1 top-ten, acknowledging the Austrian skipped last week for what he believes was a family matter, not an injury. Straka ‘likes to go low’ and is usually streaky out of the gate, so Mills feels the books are over-penalising him for the absence in a field this small.

Calling it an automatic click, Mills loves Russell Henley at +125 to finish Round 1 inside the top ten. Henley “always comes out fast,” carries strong course history at East Lake, and only needs to beat 20 players to cash. Mills even added that he sees Henley as a dark-horse outright, reinforcing why the +125 opening-day placement is, in his words, ‘a smash.’

Griffin was the third name Mills highlighted at +2500 for first-round leader. Mills argued the number is wildly generous when you only have 28 other golfers to clear, noting Griffin’s recent stretch of low opening rounds and saying the market is treating this like a 140-player Thursday when it clearly is not.

Mills lumped Cameron Young with Burns and Griffin as Round-1 bets that are ‘great form, great first-round scoring’ yet remain +2500 in a 29-man field. He stressed that Young’s explosive driver routinely gives him birdie looks early and that these odds are identical to full-field events, creating what he called ‘serious value’ for anyone chasing a first-round leader dart.

Chris Mills pointed to Sam Burns at +2500 in the first-round-leader market and called it mispriced given there are only 29 players in Atlanta instead of the usual 140-plus. Mills noted Burns’ current "great form" and proven fast starts, saying those same +2500 tickets are what books usually hang in a full field. With barely two dozen golfers to beat and dead-heat rules the only real drawback, Mills believes Burns is one of the best ways to attack Round-1 betting value.

Ben Everill advised steering clear of JJ Spaun’s 33-1 outright number, saying the Californian "might have had his moment and might be on the way back down." Everill admitted Spaun has burned him before but still questions whether Spaun’s inconsistent driver can stand up to East Lake’s punishing rough and the pressure of a no-cut, 30-player shoot-out where every bogey is magnified. Bettors looking for sleeper tickets should look elsewhere or consider Spaun head-to-head fades instead of chasing an outright win.

Everill liked Pat Mayo’s boosted 35-1 on Cam Young, pointing out the American is still auditioning for a Ryder Cup captain’s pick. That urgency should keep him grinding all four rounds regardless of early position. Young’s recent ball-striking surge aligns with East Lake’s demand to keep drives in the fairway to avoid thick collar rough introduced in last year’s renovation. With everyone starting at even par, Everill believes Young’s combination of length, motivation, and improved accuracy makes him an appealing outright or top-5 wager at long odds.

Ben Everill endorsed betting Tommy Fleetwood outright at 16-1, arguing the Englishman’s winless narrative actually sets up perfectly this year. With the Tour scrapping staggered starting strokes, every player begins at level par, giving Fleetwood only 29 opponents to beat instead of chasing a ten-shot head start. Everill noted Fleetwood is “hitting it amazingly,” carries solid past results at East Lake, and benefits from a setup where fairway finders can attack newly renovated greens if they avoid the gnarly Bermuda rough. For risk-averse bettors he suggested using ‘without Scottie Scheffler’ markets, but still sees a full-field outright as a live ticket in what would be a storybook FedEx Cup finish.

Ben Everill highlighted Sam Burns as a bullish play in East Lake finish and place markets, noting that Burns knows ‘he needs to put up a big performance’ to cement himself as Scottie Scheffler’s Ryder Cup partner. Everill reminded listeners that the U.S. side was ‘boat-raced’ in Rome when Scheffler lacked a comfortable teammate, and Burns’ surge last week arrived just in time to catch captain Johnson’s eye. With extra motivation, recent form trending up, and a proven rapport with Scheffler, Everill expects Burns to attack pins aggressively and cash top-10/20 tickets.

Mills is fading a distracted Keegan Bradley by taking Andrew Novak at +150 (no-tie market) in the opening round. Bradley looked ‘terrible’ last week and is juggling Ryder Cup captaincy chatter after an exhausting media swing from Bethpage to East Lake. Novak arrives under the radar but in steady form, and Mills believes the +150 line underrates his chances against a player dealing with both poor ball-striking and heavy mental baggage.

Pat Mayo advised taking Brian Harman at +105 in the Bet-365 ‘without ties’ Round-1 matchup versus Keegan Bradley at East Lake. Mayo pointed out that Harman has carded an under-par score in every competitive round since winning The Open, a six-week stretch that shows both form and floor. Conversely, Bradley finished dead last at the BMW, had to play alone on Sunday, and now arrives with the mental weight of debating whether a Ryder Cup captain should even tee it up. Mayo added that Bradley owns a poor track record at East Lake, so the combination of shaky course history, recent ball-striking dip, and off-course distractions makes him a prime fade. Harman’s steady fairways-and-greens profile and hot putter give him a clear path to win the opening-round head-to-head.

Chris Mills likes Patrick Cantlay at essentially even money in his Thursday matchup with Corey Conners. Cantlay owns elite East Lake credentials—including his 2021 FedEx Cup title—and quietly sits on several top-10 finishes this season despite perception that he’s slumping. Conners, meanwhile, is fighting both balky putting (he ‘couldn’t make a putt over two feet’ in Memphis) and a possible wrist issue. For Mills, the bet is a straightforward course-horse with something to prove for the Ryder Cup against a banged-up opponent, and the pick-em price is simply too cheap.

Ben Everill urged listeners to look for opportunities to oppose Corey Conners this week. He pointed to a lingering wrist issue, a Sunday collapse in Chicago and whispers from inside the camp that something is still ‘niggling.’ Conners has never finished better than 20th in three prior Tour Championship starts—despite East Lake rewarding elite ball-striking—and bookmakers continue to price him around 14th-15th in position markets. Everill sees that as a disconnect and will be hunting head-to-head matchups to fade the Canadian until he proves the injury talk is overblown.

Chris Mills is firing again on Ben Griffin, grabbing him at +165 (with ties) over Tommy Fleetwood in Thursday’s two-ball. Mills called Griffin his personal cash cow, noting last week’s wild ride where the North Carolinian went six over through three holes, then ripped off seven under across the next eleven to finish inside the top-20 and win the daily matchup. Griffin’s combination of length off the tee, fearless birdie-making and a public perception gap keeps him priced as an underdog despite a ceiling that can bury steadier opponents. Mills loves that volatility in single-round bets and believes Griffin wins this matchup far more often than the 37 % implied by +165.

Ben Everill said the best way to profit from Scottie Scheffler this week is through derivative markets instead of the tiny outright number. Scheffler has a reputation for slow Thursdays, yet Everill reminded listeners that last year the Texan posted the low opening round at East Lake and now faces only 29 opponents. With that context, Everill prefers Scheffler to record 5-plus birdies, finish inside the first-round top-5, or even grab first-round leader—prices that still sit in the mid-single to low-double-digit range instead of the sub-+250 outright. He added that if Scheffler takes off early, bettors can still attack round-by-round matchups later, but these props capture ceiling value while avoiding the “without Scheffler” markets that merely slash the odds board.

Kenny Kim said Corey Conners "makes a lot of sense at a course like this" and loves him at $7,100. Conners can "plot his way along," providing steady four-round scoring without forcing rosters into the over-owned 6K chalk. Kim expects to feature Conners heavily in balanced DFS builds that still leave salary for one or two expensive studs.

Byron Lindeque plans to "go overboard" on Cameron Young, aiming to double the field’s exposure. He expects ownership projections to come in lighter than they should for Young at his mid-7K salary and believes the bomber’s volatility scares casual players. In a no-cut, 30-man slate, Lindeque wants Young’s top-five upside anchoring balanced lineups while the crowd wanders elsewhere.

Kenny Kim argued Sungjae Im is the premier leverage play in the six-thousand range. Priced at just $6,200, Im owns "extremely good course history" at the Tour Championship, yet could be "one of the lower-owned guys in the 6K range" because salary relief is scarce in a 30-man field. Kim is willing to overlook shaky recent form, banking on the proven track record and ownership dip to swing GPPs if Im posts another top-tier finish.

Kenny Kim highlighted Hideki Matsuyama as a sneaky tournament play in the $7K tier. Matsuyama has been "decent hitting fairways," owns a short game that can rescue errant drives, and is "really good on long par threes and long par fours." Kim likes the $2,000 discount off Justin Thomas and expects the PGA DFS crowd to shy away because of recent off-the-tee concerns, creating a clear ownership discount. He views Decky as the perfect pivot for GPP players who want upside without eating chalk.

Byron Lindeque said Ben Griffin is an auto-click at $7,700, insisting DraftKings keeps mis-pricing him. Griffin has been "so solid" week after week, yet sits only $800 below Sam Burns at $8,500 — a gap Lindeque called absurd given their comparable upside. Because casual players gravitate to the better-known names in the elite 30-man field, Lindeque expects ownership to lag, so he plans to be well over the field in large-field DFS tournaments.

Kenny Kim recommended fading Justin Thomas in DFS even though Thomas owns a solid track record at East Lake. Kim noted that 2025 is Thomas’s worst driving season, a glaring weakness on a course that demands accuracy off the tee. While his putter is running at a career high, Kim feels the driver issues outweigh the spike putting and prefers to allocate $9K salary elsewhere.

Kenny Kim suggested rostering Rory McIlroy as a leverage play in the $10K tier. With Scottie Scheffler projected for massive ownership and Ludvig Aberg generating buzz, Kim believes Rory will be the lowest-owned of the elite options. East Lake fits McIlroy’s game and, in large-field GPPs, the ownership discount outweighs concerns about recent form, giving lineups that fade Scheffler a high-upside differentiator.

Kenny Kim’s favorite sub-$6,500 DFS punt is Jacob Bridgeman at $6,100. Kim highlighted Bridgeman’s fairway-finding prowess, competent short game and respectable putter, traits he believes are critical when you lock Scottie Scheffler into lineups and need three bargain plays. Because most of the field will default to Shane Lowry at $6,400, Kim expects Bridgeman’s ownership to stay low, giving Scheffler builds much-needed uniqueness.

Byron Lindeque labeled Ben Griffin a core DFS play at just $7,700. Griffin is ‘very, very good with the long irons,’ a solid driver and historically gains on Bermuda greens. He has been living inside the top-12 lately yet remains $1,500 cheaper than Sam Burns. Lindeque thinks the salary break allows gamers to jam higher-priced studs without giving up ceiling, and he plans to be overweight on Griffin in GPPs.

Byron Lindeque called Cameron Young a fair 20-to-1 outright in the no-Scheffler pool, stressing that East Lake is a ‘big-time driver golf course’ and Young’s driver is an ‘absolute weapon.’ Lindeque added that Young’s putting has quietly improved, so if the elite off-the-tee play shows up he has tournament-winning upside at a price depressed only by Scheffler’s presence in the main market.