Scott Reichel took James Wood to leave the yard against Brandon Pfaadt. The D-backs right-hander has served up five homers in his last three starts and at least one in three straight, while his four-seam has a .596 SLG against when elevated. Wood, meanwhile, owns a 46% hard-hit rate since his call-up and has already barreled four balls at 107 mph or harder. Chase Field ranks 6th in Baseball Savant’s HR park factor for left-handed batters, and the forecast calls for 10-mph breeze out to right-center. With Arizona’s bullpen sporting a 5.02 ERA over the past two weeks, Reichel expects Wood to see a couple of cracks at shaky relief as well. He likes Wood’s HR prop at anything +425 or better and calls him a strong one-off in DFS stacks built around the Nationals-D-backs shootout.

Scott Reichel labeled Chicago first-five minus ½ at a juicy +200 as his ‘dog of the show’. He trusts Jonathan Martin, who carries a 3.45 ERA and has yielded only five total runs over his last three starts, to win the early duel with Dean Kremer. Reichel pointed out that Kremer has been a mess all season—5.02 ERA overall, four or more earned runs in four of his past seven outings, and 7+ hits allowed in each of his last three. By grabbing the alt run line in the opening five frames, Scott avoids the White Sox’s shaky bullpen and maximizes a matchup where he feels Chicago’s starter is clearly superior. He thinks the +200 price should be closer to +150 given Martin’s consistency and Baltimore’s vulnerability early in games.

Lonte Smith’s home-run pick is Brandon Nimmo, citing a perfect storm of factors. Rockies starter Antonio Sensatela has surrendered 4+ earned runs in six straight outings and owns a 7.89 ERA during that stretch. Citi Field will have 12-mph winds blowing out to right, boosting left-handed power. Nimmo has five hits in his last three home games after snapping an 0-for-17 slump on the road and now faces a pitcher allowing a .406 OBP the second and third time through the order. Lonte emphasized that Nimmo has not homered since May 11, so sportsbooks are hanging a friendlier number than usual on his HR prop—an angle he wants to exploit in both betting markets and DFS tournaments.

Scott Reichel played the full-game over 9, projecting a slugfest in Phoenix. Nationals rookie Michael Soroka has a 5.61 ERA, has yielded four homers in his last three starts, and Washington has dropped four of his five outings by multiple runs. Brandon Pfaadt’s recent regression is showing as well—three straight starts of 3+ earned—and he has been tagged five times over the fence in that span. Reichel pointed out that Washington’s offense has been buoyed by CJ Abrams and top prospect James Wood, while Arizona’s lineup still boasts top-10 hard-hit metrics even during its slide. Neither bullpen inspires confidence (both over 4.80 ERA in June), so Reichel forecast double-digit runs and would play the total up to 9.5 at even money.

Lonte Smith took a two-pronged approach: Pirates first-five moneyline and the full-game under 7.5. Smith likes Bailey Falter’s current groove—three earned runs allowed over his last five starts—and trusts him to keep San Diego’s slumping bats quiet early. Cease has been sharper at Petco (two earned or fewer in four straight home outings), so Smith expects a low-scoring first half and prefers grabbing Pittsburgh before its bullpen (4.61 ERA) gets involved. He added that both starters struggle with the long ball, but Petco suppresses homers by 13%, helping the under angle. Anything +140 or better on the first-five Pirates and under 7.5 at standard juice made his card.

Scott Reichel fired on Pittsburgh at +194, arguing the number is wildly inflated for a Padres club that is 10-15 over the past month. Reichel acknowledged Martin Perez Falter’s 5.07 road ERA but noted the lefty has allowed just two total earned runs across his last four starts by leaning heavier on a cutter that induces a 32% ground-ball rate. Dylan Cease, meanwhile, owns a 4.58 ERA and has coughed up three earned in back-to-back outings despite pitching in Petco. San Diego’s bullpen has the league’s worst ERA (6.11) in June, and the lineup ranks 28th in OPS against southpaws. Reichel projected the true line closer to Padres –155 and recommended sprinkling the Pittsburgh moneyline and a smaller stake on +1.5 runs at –110.

Lonte Smith made Minnesota his official lock, insisting the market is underrating Ober’s consistency and overrating Miller’s return. Smith highlighted that Ober has allowed more than one run in just two of five road starts and has kept opponents to seven hits or fewer in five of six. He also pointed to Miller’s control issues—four walks in two of his last four appearances—and the likelihood of a strict pitch limit after a three-week layoff. Seattle’s offense owns the league’s third-highest strike-out rate versus right-handed pitching, a profile tailor-made for Ober’s elevated four-seam/slider mix. If the price drifts to Twins +100, Smith called it ‘a gift’ and said he would still buy Minnesota up to –120.

Lonte Smith made the Yankees his dog of the day at +105, citing a sizable mound edge. Luis Warren has righted the ship, giving up fewer than three earned runs in four straight and posting seven-plus strikeouts in each outing. On the flip side, Dodgers starter Gavin Stone NAC sports a 7.07 ERA at Chavez Ravine, has surrendered five homers over his last three turns, and has been tagged for four or more earned runs in two of his last three. Smith emphasized Warren’s road dominance—two earned or fewer in five of six away starts—and trusts a rested Yankees bullpen (3.21 ERA last 10 days) to slam the door. He prefers the full-game moneyline but also suggested a first-five play if New York stays plus money.

Lonte Smith prefers the under 7.5 because both starters have been limiting damage despite allowing base-runners. Skubal’s road ERA sits at 1.98 and he hasn’t walked more than one batter in a start since April 12. Wacha has given up two or fewer earned runs in six of his last seven appearances, including only one total across his last three at Kauffman Stadium. Detroit’s offense has regressed to league-average after a hot April, and Kansas City’s lineup is batting just .226 against left-handed pitching. Lonte forecasted a 2-1 or 3-1 type finish and would chase the total down to 7 at standard juice.

Scott Reichel backed Minnesota at the pick-em price, arguing the Twins should be laying at least –120 in Seattle. Reichel noted that Bailey Ober has quietly surrendered fewer than two earned runs in six of his last seven starts and owns an 8.2% walk rate that keeps traffic manageable even when his road ERA (4.67) ticks up. He contrasted that with Bryce Miller’s disastrous recent form—4+ earned runs in three of the right-hander’s last four outings before hitting the IL on May 11—and reminded listeners Miller is returning from an elbow flare-up without a rehab tune-up. Seattle’s lineup scores almost a half-run less per game at T-Mobile Park, and its bullpen has been used heavily after Thursday’s 11-inning loss. With Ober’s 28% CSW holding steady and Minnesota slugging .448 against righties in June, Reichel saw clear value grabbing the Twins straight up and said he would play them to –115.

Lonte Smith agreed with the Tampa side, calling the current even-money price a steal. He noted that Littell’s pitch-to-contact style has worked because he limits hard contact (31% Hard-Hit) and walks almost nobody (4.2% BB rate). Gordon, meanwhile, has allowed 7+ hits in all three MLB starts and has yet to record an out in the sixth inning, which exposes a Houston bullpen that owns a 5.12 ERA over the last two weeks. Tampa’s offense has climbed to a 123 wRC+ since May 20, and the club is 6-1 in its last seven road games. Lonte expects the Rays to close around –115 and is comfortable backing them up to that number.

Scott Reichel grabbed Tampa at even money, citing a clear pitching edge and current form. Zack Littell has held opponents to three earned runs or fewer in five of his last six starts, and the Rays have won six straight games he has appeared in. Houston counters with rookie Blair Gordon, who sports a 5.06 ERA and has been tagged for a .356 OBP the second time through the order in limited action. Tampa is 8-2 over its past ten and ranks top-10 in wRC+ during that span, while the Astros bullpen has leaked to a 4.52 ERA since May 15. Scott expects the market to flip Tampa to the favorite by first pitch and would play the moneyline down to –110.

Lonte Smith took a small swing on Kansas City at +150, reasoning that Wacha’s underlying numbers are stronger than the public realizes. The veteran owns a 21% K-minus-BB rate over the last month and has allowed exactly one earned run across his previous three home outings. Skubal is elite but showed vulnerability two starts back (8 ER in two games before his latest gem) and faces a Royals lineup that strikes out just 18% versus lefties, the second-best mark in MLB. Playing at spacious Kauffman suppresses Skubal’s home-run advantage, and Lonte sees value whenever a competent home side is catching +150 or better in a game with a 7.5 total.

Scott Reichel hammered Detroit –1.5 and even grabbed Tigers first-five –0.5 because Tarik Skubal is, in his words, "the best pitcher in baseball right now." The left-hander is fresh off a 101-pitch Maddox (complete-game shutout) in which he fanned 13 and walked none, pushing his season line to a 1.71 ERA, 0.79 WHIP, and 34% strike-out rate. Skubal has recorded 11+ Ks in back-to-back starts and has yet to allow more than two earned runs in any of his five road outings. Royals starter Michael Wacha carries a 4.67 xERA, a 1.38 WHIP, and has surrendered 7+ hits in four of his last five turns. Detroit’s bullpen owns a 2.91 ERA the past two weeks, so Scott feels comfortable asking for a multi-run cushion and would lay the run line as long as it stays at even money or better.

Lonte Smith sprinkled Miami on the moneyline at +145 despite the pitching mismatch on paper. He trusts Edward Cabrera’s recent surge—1.96 FIP over his past three home starts—and pointed out that the Marlins offense has actually out-scored San Francisco during the last seven days. The Giants are laying –175 despite ranking 27th in runs per game this month and traveling to one of the league’s most pitcher-friendly parks. Lonte figures Cabrera only needs six solid innings because the Giants have yet to solve elite sinker/curve combinations this season (.271 wOBA). With Miami in better current form, he believes the line should be closer to +125 and is happy to fade a slumping favorite.

Lonte Smith tailed the under 8.0 for the whole nine innings. Cabrera owns a 2.61 ERA across his last four appearances and has walked only four batters in that span after early-season control problems. Ray enters with six straight quality starts and has allowed one earned run or fewer in four of his last five, pushing his season WHIP down to 0.94. Neither offense inspires confidence: Miami sits 29th in hard-hit rate during the past two weeks, while San Francisco’s bats have completely cratered ( .196 team average and just 0.84 runs per game over the last three). Lonte projected a 3-2 or 3-1 finish and would still play the under at 7.5 if the market drops.

Scott Reichel played the first-five under 4.5 because neither lineup is trustworthy at the moment. He reminded listeners that San Francisco has scored just five runs total over its last three games and every Giants contest this week finished below eight runs. Miami starter Edward Cabrera routinely cruises the first time through the order (2.61 ERA over his last four starts) while inevitably melting down later, so Scott wants to stop the clock before the blow-up inning arrives. Giants ace Ray is 7-0 with a 2.56 ERA and a 29% strike-out rate, and Miami’s offense ranks 28th in ISO versus left-handed pitching. San Francisco is also third-to-last in stolen bases, negating Cabrera’s biggest weakness. Reichel expects no more than two runs apiece through five and would play under 4.5 down to –120.

Lonte Smith built a two-leg parlay: Mets team total over 5.5 with Rockies team total under 2.5, projecting a lopsided affair. Senga has been dominant (one earned run or fewer in 7 of 8 starts; 36% CSW on the ghost fork) and faces a Colorado roster dead-last in road OPS (.557). Sensatela, meanwhile, has a 7.89 ERA across his last six and has given up 4+ earned in six straight, setting up a ‘get-right’ spot for a slumping Mets offense. Smith expects New York to hang six or more, noting Sensatela’s .406 OBP allowed the second and third time through the order, while Colorado may not scratch out two runs against Senga and a rested bullpen (2.98 ERA last 10 days). At standard pricing the parlay pays roughly +160 and he would play it down to +140.

Lonte Smith fired on the over 9, contending both offenses are primed to punish two hittable arms. He acknowledged Buehler’s recent form but noted his hit rate is still volatile (6+ knocks in three of his last six) and Schwellenbach has coughed up four homers in his past three starts while yielding 6+ hits in seven of nine outings. Boston’s lineup has a 113 wRC+ against right-handed pitching, while Atlanta owns MLB’s third-highest hard-hit rate since May 20, and Smith believes the Braves are due for positive regression after stranding 83% of base runners this month. With both pens imploding — combined 5.67 ERA in June — he projected 10–11 total runs and would play over 9 at –120 or better.

Scott Reichel prefers the first-five under 4.5 (–115) in Boston-Atlanta, arguing neither lineup has been trustworthy and both starters are trending up. Walker Buehler has allowed two earned or fewer in four of his last five and owns a 29.8% strikeout rate away from Fenway. Braves rookie Spencer Schwellenbach has settled in with a 2.62 ERA at Truist Park and has limited opponents to <3 ER in three of his last four. Reichel pointed to both clubs ranking bottom-10 in runs per game over the previous two weeks and insisted dodging the worn-out bullpens (Boston relievers 5.91 ERA last 14 days, Atlanta 5.43) is critical. He projects a 2-1 or 3-1 score through five and would only look full-game under 9 if forced.

Scott Reichel recommended an alternate run line, Mets –2.5 at roughly –120, calling Antonio Sensatela ‘batting practice’. The right-hander is 1-9 with a 6.54 ERA, has surrendered 8+ hits in five of six, and owns MLB’s worst xERA (7.02). Kodai Senga counters with a 1.46 ERA and has allowed one earned run or fewer in seven of eight starts, four of them scoreless. Reichel hammered home Colorado’s historic road ineptitude — 3-25 record, .266 wOBA away from Coors — and the Mets’ clear motivation after falling behind Philadelphia in the division. He expects an early 4-0 cushion and a comfortable 7-2 type final, advising bettors not to fear the juice so long as the –2.5 price stays below –130.

Lonte Smith bet the over 8.5, forecasting both clubs to reach four runs. He highlighted Hendricks’ brutal recent stretch — 19 earned runs across his last four road starts and a home-run allowed in seven of his past eight appearances. On the other side, Jecconi is dealing with minor groin tightness, which Smith fears could cap him at 80–85 pitches and expose the middle of Cleveland’s bullpen. The Angels remain feast-or-famine but still sit 11-th in hard-hit rate and have eclipsed four runs in five of their last nine versus righties. With Hendricks’ sinker generating only an 8% whiff rate and both teams ranking top-10 in barrel percentage over the past week, he projects a 6-4 Guardians win and would play the over up to 9 at plus money.

Scott Reichel laid Cleveland –1.5 at +118, calling it a bargain versus contact-heavy Kyle Hendricks. The right-hander sports a 5.91 ERA overall, a 6.40 mark on the road, and has surrendered 3+ earned runs in four straight while allowing opponents to slash .321/.368/.549. Cleveland rookie Jonah Jecconi flashed legitimate upside last start (6 IP, 1 ER, 8 Ks vs Detroit) and owns a 14% swinging-strike rate through two outings. Reichel emphasized how cold the Angels’ bats have been — 2.9 runs per game over their last ten — and Cleveland’s top-five bullpen (2.92 ERA) should shorten the game. With a lineup that ranks seventh in wRC+ against right-handed pitching, he projects a 5-2 home win and would play the run line down to +105.

Scott Reichel laid the Cardinals money-line at –138, arguing the market is underrating Sonny Gray’s edge over Texas starter Corbin. Gray owns a sparkling 5-1 record and Reichel stressed his home/road splits are largely noise because the right-hander’s pitch-mix keeps barrels down everywhere (31% hard-hit rate, top-15 among qualified starters). Meanwhile Corbin has never worked past the sixth inning this season and carries a 1.48 WHIP along with a five-homer spike in his last three outings. Reichel also pointed out Texas is 18-12 at Globe Life but ranks 26-th in home OPS, cashing the under in 26 of 30 games and scoring one run or fewer 15 times. With St. Louis plating 4.8 runs per game since May 15 and sporting the superior bullpen (3.42 ERA vs Rangers’ 4.28), he sees the Cards as rightful –160 favorites and would grab anything better than –145.

Lonte Smith grabbed Texas at +125 and paired it with the full-game under 8, citing the Rangers’ 26-4 under record at Globe Life and their elite run-prevention profile (2.91 home ERA). Even with the offense sputtering — one run or fewer in 15 games — Smith trusts Corbin to keep it close because he has limited opponents to three earned or fewer in every start this year and owns a 2.12 ERA in his last four home turns. He acknowledged the long-ball risk (five homers allowed in those same outings) but noted St. Louis ranks just 24-th in road ISO. With Sonny Gray’s 32% CSW and Texas’ bullpen posting a 2.98 ERA over the past 14 days, he projects a 3-2 type contest. Anything +115 or better on the Rangers and under 8 at standard juice are plays for him.

Lonte Smith prefers the first-five innings under because both starters can miss bats and one of them works quickly enough to keep the scoreboard quiet. Milwaukee’s Dylan Patrick has yet to allow more than three runs in any start and owns a sub-3.00 ERA despite rarely pitching beyond the fifth. Jesus Luzardo, meanwhile, has given up only two total runs across his last three outings versus St. Louis, the Dodgers, and Atlanta while striking out 10+ in back-to-back appearances. Smith concedes the Phillies’ bats are hot, but he trusts Luzardo to handle them early and notes Patrick’s shortened outings limit their second-time-through familiarity. He would play under 4.5 at standard juice.

Scott Reichel is fine paying the tax on Philadelphia, grabbing the run line at roughly +105. He raved about Jesus Luzardo’s flawless 5-0 record and 2.15 ERA (1.90 at home) and believes the southpaw’s 10+ K upside neutralizes Milwaukee’s platoon advantage. Brewers rookie Dylan Patrick has been a nice surprise (2.97 ERA) but rarely works past five innings — three of his last four starts did not reach the fifth — meaning the thin Milwaukee bullpen will shoulder heavy work. Philadelphia owns MLB’s best home record and, with their offense averaging 5.5 runs per game at Citizens Bank, Reichel projects a comfortable two-plus-run victory.

Lonte Smith is doubling down on Chicago for the second straight game, recommending plus 1.5 runs, first-five moneyline, and full-game moneyline. Martin has logged three consecutive quality starts and has surrendered two earned or fewer in four straight road outings. Kremer’s surface stats look respectable, but Smith stressed the underlying contact issues: 7+ hits allowed in each of his last three outings and four earned runs in four of his last seven. He expects the White Sox, who have been ‘frisky’ at the dish this week, to score early and force Baltimore’s leaky bullpen into higher-leverage frames. Smith aims to cash at least one of the alternate approaches and turn a profit on the series even if Chicago only steals a game.

Scott Reichel grabbed Chicago around +160, calling the number ‘massive’ given the pitching matchup. Erick Fedde-disciple Jonathan Martin brings a 3.45 ERA into Camden Yards and has yielded only five total runs over his last three starts. Baltimore counters with Dean Kremer, owner of a 5.02 ERA who has allowed four or more earned in four of his past seven outings and was tagged for four runs by Minnesota in his most recent home start. Reichel also prefers Chicago’s recently improved bullpen to the Orioles’ shaky relief corps. With the market over-rating Baltimore simply because of its lineup, Reichel sees clear value on the better current arm and will live with the underdog variance.

Lonte Smith echoed the play on Cincinnati, taking both the first-five innings and full-game moneylines. He highlighted Nick Lodolo’s road dominance — two earned runs or fewer in five of six road starts, three of them scoreless — and noted the left-hander limited Chicago to three earned over five innings on 5/25. Brown’s form has cratered: eight earned in 4.2 IP versus the Reds last week and 14 earned across his last two appearances overall. With Cincy’s bats rolling again Friday, Smith sees an early lead and trusts the Reds’ bullpen more than Chicago’s at the moment. Anything near plus money in the first five and +130 or better full game is a buy for him.

Scott Reichel said the number on Chicago is completely out of whack and grabbed Cincinnati at +138. He pointed out that Cubs starter Brown owns a 6.39 ERA and has been rocked for 14 earned runs over his last two outings, including eight earned against these same Reds on May 25th. Brown has given up at least seven hits in four of his past five starts and simply is not missing bats. By contrast, Nick Lodolo sports a 3.39 ERA and while he has surrendered three runs in two of his last three, Reichel still grades him clearly superior. He believes this line should sit closer to Cubs -130, so the current price gifts more than a quarter-run of value. With Cincinnati’s offense heating up — they plated nine runs in Friday’s opener — Reichel recommended taking the Reds straight up and even sprinkling first five if the number is right.

Scott Reichel singled out Pete Alonso as his home-run play of the day against Rockies lefty Kyle Freeland. Citi Field is forecast for a 7 mph breeze blowing out to left, a perfect jet stream for Alonso’s pull-side power. Freeland may have allowed only three long balls over the past month, but Reichel argued the underlying contact is frightening: a .317 batting average against and 43% hard-hit rate overall. Alonso has rediscovered his timing, homering in two of the last four games and posting a 52% fly-ball rate during that stretch. Given Freeland’s 0-7 record and .930 OPS allowed to righties on the road, Reichel is happy to play Alonso Over 0.5 HR at +325 or better and to anchor Mets stacks in DFS line-ups that lean on right-handed power.

Lonte Smith doubled down on his White Sox upset angle by targeting Miguel Vargas to go deep against Zach Eflin. Smith called Eflin "batting practice right now," noting the right-hander has been tagged for 17 earned runs and seven homers in his last three starts while carrying an 8.74 ERA at Camden Yards. Vargas, meanwhile, owns multi-hit efforts in three of his last six games and has left the yard in two of his past four, boosting his hard-hit rate to 46% since returning from Triple-A. With Baltimore’s bullpen lugging a 7.00 ERA the last two weeks and wind projecting straight out to left at 8 mph, Smith likes Vargas’ chances to clear the wall and recommends betting Over 0.5 home runs at anything +400 or better while using him as a cheap DFS one-off in tournaments.

Scott Reichel made the first–five under 4.5 his Friday lock in Giants-Marlins. He pointed out San Francisco’s offense has completely cratered—five of the last six games have finished with four runs or fewer and the Giants are batting barely .200 over that span. On the mound, rookie lefty Kyle Harrison has settled in, allowing two earned or less in three straight while topping 95 mph with the fastball, and Cal Quantrill has surrendered a single earned run in three of his last four outings. LoanDepot Park’s spacious power alleys plus two pitchers who routinely work into the sixth set up what Reichel called a "2-1 type script" through five. He is comfortable playing the F5 under down to –120 and would not touch the full-game total because Miami’s bullpen remains volatile.

Lonte Smith reluctantly grabbed the Dodgers at +115, arguing the price is too tempting even with Max Fried in peak form. Los Angeles ranks near the top of MLB in wRC+ versus left-handed pitching, and Smith expects some regression from Fried once he faces this caliber of lineup. While Tony Gonsolin’s recent line (eight walks, eight earned over nine innings) is ugly, his career 3.21 ERA suggests better days, and the Yankees’ offense has been scuffling—just a .392 slugging percentage over the last ten despite sweeping the Angels. Smith sees a tight 2-1 finish either way, so he is pairing Dodgers ML down to +110 with Under 8.5 at –105 or better.

Scott Reichel locked in the Yankees at –105 on the opener and still likes them at –130 with undefeated Max Fried (7-0, 0.83 road ERA) facing Tony Gonsolin, who sports a 6.30 ERA at Dodger Stadium and eight walks plus eight earned runs in his last two outings. Reichel also cited New York’s nine straight series wins and the Dodgers’ volatile bullpen that has repeatedly coughed up late leads. Expecting a playoff-style duel, he grabbed Under 8.5 at +110, projecting a 4-2 Yankee victory and recommending the under at any plus number.

Lonte Smith prefers the total in Twins-Mariners, projecting a 3-1 or 4-0 type of contest and targeting any opening number of 8 or higher. He trusts Bryan Wu’s 1.10 ERA over three home starts and 31% chase rate to muzzle a Minnesota offense striking out 25% of the time versus righties. Although Zebby Matthews owns a bloated 7.71 ERA, Smith pointed to his above-average whiff rate and believes spacious T-Mobile Park plus two under-trending lineups (six unders in ten for both clubs) will keep damage in check. If the market drops to 7.5, he wants plus money; otherwise he’ll play the under at standard juice.

Scott Reichel isolated the opening five innings in Twins-Mariners, backing Seattle –0.5 with Bryan Wu versus Zebby Matthews. Wu has delivered eight quality starts in ten trips and has yielded just two combined earned runs over his last three, while Matthews carries a 7.71 ERA and profiles as a 4A arm. Minnesota is batting only .213 against right-handers the past two weeks, and Reichel prefers avoiding bullpens altogether to maximize the pitching mismatch. He projects a multi-run Seattle cushion by the middle frames and is comfortable laying up to –120 on the F5 run line, expecting the full-game price to settle in the –150 range.

Doubling down on Reichel’s angle, Lonte Smith will bet both the first-five and full-game moneylines on Washington provided he can get +130 to +150. Smith highlighted the Nats’ uptick—seven wins in their last ten and a 4-1 road stretch—and praised Irvin’s consistency: three consecutive quality starts, two runs or fewer allowed in three of five away from D.C. Arizona’s bullpen is the real target; the unit’s 6.00 ERA and .370 wOBA allowed over the past ten have turned close games into losses. While Smith respects Merril Kelly, he believes any Nationals lead after five forces Arizona to lean on that relief corps, a scenario that could blow up quickly. He also intends to sprinkle a Washington team-total Over 3.5, banking on late-inning fireworks against a gassed pen.

Scott Reichel plans to fire on Washington as soon as bookmakers hang a plus number, calling Arizona a bet-against team in an outright free fall. The Diamondbacks have dropped seven of eight and their bullpen owns a 5.90 ERA over the last ten games. Meanwhile the Nationals have won four of their last five on the road and already took two of three from Arizona in April. Reichel acknowledged Merrill Kelly’s steady run—two or fewer earned in seven of nine—but noted Jake Irvin has logged three straight quality starts and five of seven overall with two or fewer earned. Add in Arizona’s lineup batting under .230 during the skid, and Reichel projects a 5-3 Nats victory. His buy-point: Nationals moneyline at +130 or better, with a lean to the Nats team-total over to isolate Arizona’s shaky middle relief.

Lonte Smith said the only way he can touch Pirates-Padres is by grabbing Pittsburgh on the first-five moneyline at any number north of +115. He reminded listeners that Mitch Keller owns a sparkling 1.89 ERA over his last four starts and a 2.88 ERA on the road, yet still sits 1-6 because the Bucs rarely score for him. Smith thinks Keller can at least match Nick Pivetta, whose recent form is buoyed by good luck—five straight outings with a homer allowed and a rising hard-hit rate. While San Diego swept the season series in early May and has won nine straight head-to-head, the Padres have played “below-average ball” for two weeks and the bullpen is worn down after consecutive bullpen games. With Pittsburgh 6-4 in its last ten and San Diego offense stuck under four runs in five of seven, Smith projects a 2-1 or 3-2 Pirate lead through five and will sprinkle the full-game moneyline only if the price holds +160 or better.

Scott Reichel advised taking a shot on the Pirates moneyline around +160 against San Diego. He argued the price is inflated by the Padres’ 18-9 home record despite the club’s recent slump and shaky bullpen showing in Arizona. Mitch Keller may be 1-6, but his underlying numbers—3.66 ERA overall, 2.88 on the road—stack up favorably against Nick Pivetta, who is being asked to lay –190. Keller’s 27% strikeout rate travels well, and the Padres lineup has scored three runs or fewer in five of its last seven. Reichel also pointed out that Pittsburgh’s offense has quietly woken up, plating 15 runs in its two-game set with the Diamondbacks. With the Bucs sporting a top-10 defensive efficiency and San Diego’s pen worn down after bullpen games, he projects a coin-flip contest and sees anything +150 or better on Pittsburgh as pure value.

Lonte Smith is playing two ways in Rays-Astros: under 7.5 and Houston –1.5 at plus money. He highlighted that both starters have strung together four consecutive quality starts, with Valdez allowing three earned or fewer in eight of 11 overall and Pepiot blanking Toronto last weekend after holding Houston to three runs over six the start before. Smith acknowledged Tampa’s improved form (seven wins in the last eight) but still grades their offense as league-average at best, while Houston’s lineup is missing Kyle Tucker and has seen Yordan Alvarez in and out of the lineup. Given that, he envisions a playoff-style 3-2 game where whichever side wins likely does so by multiple runs because the trailing manager will empty a taxed bullpen for pinch-hit matchups. His card: Astros –1.5 down to +120 and under 7.5 at standard juice; if the total drops to 7 he’ll pass.

Scott Reichel’s favorite angle in Rays-Astros is the first-five under 3.5/4. He trusts both southpaw Framber Valdez (2 or fewer earned in five of his last seven) and rookie righthander Jose Pepiot—3.55 ERA overall, 1.96 on the road—to keep the bats quiet early. Reichel noted both pitchers come in on four straight quality starts and that Tampa’s surge back above .500 has been driven more by pitching than offense; the Rays are still bottom-third in hard-hit rate. Houston is winning, but injuries to Kyle Tucker and Yordan Alvarez leave the lineup stretched thin. With both starters routinely reaching the sixth and Minute Maid’s roof likely closed in late May humidity, he projected a 1-1 scoreboard through five and would play F5 under at anything –120 or better. He added a ‘sprinkle’ on Tampa moneyline at +140 or higher purely on price.

Lonte Smith agreed with Scott on the total and made the under 8 his best bet in Tigers-Royals. He pointed out Detroit’s bats have finally regressed to pre-season expectations—under a .200 average and .285 wOBA versus right-handers over the last ten games—while Kansas City remains ‘consistently inconsistent,’ hitting below .215 overall in that same span. Both starters are in form: Casey Mize (2.45 ERA) and Seth Lugo (3.02) have combined for nine quality starts in their last ten turns. Smith also cited the April head-to-head series that produced just 23 total runs in four games and a cool evening forecast that suppresses Kauffman’s carry. He projects a 3-2 or 4-3 final and will bet any under 8 at standard juice, taking 7.5 at plus money if the market dips.

Scott Reichel is pairing the Tigers moneyline (around –120) with the full-game under 8 in Detroit-Kansas City. He lauded Casey Mize’s 6-1 record and 2.45 ERA, noting Detroit is 17 games over .500 for the first time since 2013 and 6-1 in Mize’s road starts. Royals right-hander Seth Lugo has been solid (3.02 ERA), which points to run prevention on both sides, but Reichel still prefers Mize and a Tigers bullpen that ranks top-10 in strand rate. He emphasized Kansas City’s stagnant offense—fewer than three runs in seven of its last ten—and Detroit’s recent slump versus righties (sub-.200 average over the past ten) as key reasons the total feels a run too high. His projection: Tigers 4, Royals 2, cashing both the side and the under.

Lonte Smith doubled down on the matchup by betting the first-five under 4.5 and sprinkling the Cardinals moneyline. Smith rattled off Liberatore’s dominant stretch—eight straight starts with two or fewer earned, a 1.91 ERA in that window, and only one homer surrendered—and contrasted it with a Rangers offense hitting below .190 in its last ten overall and just .210 against southpaws for the season. He added that Texas is averaging 2.2 runs a night during that skid, making a 0-0 or 1-0 scoreboard through five highly plausible. Leiter has held his own, but Smith stressed it ‘doesn’t matter how good your arm is when the bats won’t get you two runs.’ With St. Louis manufacturing runs late and Texas bullpen cracks showing, he likes the Cards at any plus number and the F5 under at –120 or better.

Scott Reichel said the only bet he wants in Cardinals-Rangers is the St. Louis moneyline, anticipating the Cards could open as short underdogs. He trusts Matthew Liberatore, who owns a 2.73 ERA overall and has allowed two runs or fewer in eight straight outings, to quiet a Texas lineup that is averaging just 2.2 runs per game over its last ten and hitting under .210 against left-handed pitching. Reichel compared the current Rangers offense to last year’s Mariners—great arms, no sticks—and called them incapable of giving rookie Jack Leiter, whose 4.71 ERA is backed by shaky command, enough run support. St. Louis, meanwhile, has scored six-plus in four of five and is slashing .270 versus righties. With the Rangers bullpen already overworked and the Cardinals’ knack for manufacturing late offense, Reichel projected another scrappy 4-2 type win and advised taking any plus number on St. Louis down to –105.

Lonte Smith echoed the Atlanta side but wants to see the number once books re-post after bullpen usage is confirmed. He noted the Braves took two of three at Fenway last week, outscoring Boston 20-13, and Giolito surrendered six earned in that series. Smith cited Giolito’s volatility, Boston’s ‘consistently inconsistent’ offense, and an already overworked Red Sox relief corps missing Chris Martin and Whitlock as reasons the Braves lineup — now with Ronald Acuna Jr. healthy — should get right. Four of Holmes’s five May starts have been quality, so Lonte leans under early but over full game because of Boston’s pen. Tentative targets: Braves ML up to –150 and full-game over 8 if it opens below 9.

Scott Reichel said he will back Atlanta at virtually any reasonable price against Boston. Lucas Giolito sports a 5.27 ERA and was torched by these same Braves for six runs in four innings two weeks ago. Atlanta counters with rookie AJ Holmes, who owns a sub-3.00 ERA at Truist Park and has allowed fewer than three earned in three straight, including two runs over six frames at Fenway. Reichel’s biggest edge comes after the starters leave: Boston’s bullpen has already blown 11 saves and ranks bottom-five in xFIP, while Atlanta’s late-inning group remains top-10. Even if Giolito survives the first time through, Reichel expects the Sox to crumble late, projecting Braves 6-3. He is willing to lay up to –155 on the moneyline and would sprinkle the –1.5 run line at plus money.

Lonte Smith doubled down on the Marlins, recommending both the first-five and full-game moneylines. He highlighted San Francisco’s brutal offensive slide—nine of the Giants’ last ten have stayed under because the lineup is hitting .200 overall and below .215 on the road. Conversely, Miami is 5-5 in its last ten but has plated six or more runs in three of the previous five and owns a .270 team batting average during that window. Smith also pointed to the Giants’ 2.29 road bullpen ERA as a mirage created by low-leverage innings; he expects heavier usage tonight with Harrison unlikely to eclipse five frames. Quantrill has limited opponents to one earned in three of his last four at home, giving Miami a real chance to win the first half of the game outright before the fresher bats take over late. His card: Marlins F5 ML to +110 and full-game ML down to +135.