Michael Leboff tabbed Mark Hubbard at 175/1 as a high-upside longshot. Hubbard is still chasing his first PGA Tour victory, but the 36-year-old has quietly posted nine top-15 finishes over the last two seasons, six of them in 2025, almost all on easy, birdie-fest layouts similar to Waialae. He owns plenty of Sony Open reps and recorded his best result here with a T21 last year. Given Waialae's history of producing shock winners (Nick Taylor 100/1, Grayson Murray 400/1) and the absence of most elite players, Leboff believes Hubbard's proven ability to spike on low-difficulty tracks offers massive upside at 175/1.

Michael Leboff advised taking a swing on Haotong Li at 90/1, labeling him "one of the hottest players in the field." Li closed 2025 with a T8 at the DP World Tour Championship in November and a T10 at the NedBank Golf Challenge in December, adding to a season that already included a worldwide win and multiple top-five finishes, including at The Open. The Hunan native is 1-for-2 at Waialae with a 12th-place finish in 2022, so he brings some course comfort to go with elite recent form. Leboff noted that five of the past six Sony winners were 20/1 or longer—two at triple-digit prices—underscoring why 90/1 on a surging ball-striker makes sense in this shallow field.

Michael Leboff recommended an outright bet on Brian Harman at 50/1 for the Sony Open, calling him the prototypical "horses-for-courses" play. Harman has teed it up at Waialae every year since 2012, missing only two cuts in 14 starts, highlighted by a T4 in 2018 and five additional top-25 finishes. Leboff added that Harman's 2025 campaign was sneakily elite—one win, two other top-fives and just four missed cuts across 24 events—so there's no concern about current form. With star names like Scheffler, McIlroy, Fleetwood and Schauffele skipping Hawaii, Russell Henley sits as a tepid 12/1 favorite, and five of the last six Sony champions have opened 20/1 or longer (Nick Taylor 100/1, Grayson Murray 400/1). Against that backdrop, Leboff views 50/1 as mispriced value on a dependable course specialist in a diluted field.

Erich Richter jumped on Raiders +10, spotlighting trench woes on both sides. Pro Football Focus grades the Chargers’ offensive line dead last (32nd) with the Raiders only one spot better, but that parity makes a double-digit spread look rich. With the total at 41.5, he calculated a 27-13 type of score would be required for Los Angeles to cover—a game script he calls too precise to trust. Citing a similar stance that cashed when he backed the Titans +13.5 versus Seattle, Richter expects the number to close nearer 7.5 and wants early tickets on Vegas before the market corrects.

Erich Richter grabbed the Giants +7.5 on Monday Night Football, arguing New England’s record masks a middling profile. He noted the Patriots sit just 17th in overall DVOA—below the Chargers, Jaguars and Steelers—despite a 9-2 mark, and their pass defense ranks 27th. He reminded readers the Pats nearly fell to a Bengals team missing Ja’Marr Chase, saved only by a Joe Flacco pick-six. Richter expects public money on Big Blue, especially if quarterback Jaxson Dart’s pre-game antics stir hype, and plans to middle if the line slides to –6.5. Even with Jameis Winston under center, he believes New York can exploit the soft secondary and potentially spring an outright upset.

Erich Richter backed Green Bay +2.5 for Thanksgiving in Detroit, stressing that the Packers’ defense is the sharp side of this matchup. He cited Aaron Schatz’s FTN DVOA projections showing a statistical dead heat and pointed out that Green Bay is allowing only 4.6 yards per play while Detroit is giving up 5.1. With the Lions sputtering for two straight weeks and having just made Jameis Winston look like a competent 2026 starter, Richter expects bettors to steam the Packers and shrink the spread before kickoff. He framed the play as ‘defense travels’ value, looking for closing-line equity on a live underdog.

Erich Richter backed Green Bay +2.5 for Thanksgiving in Detroit, stressing that the Packers’ defense is the sharp side of this matchup. He cited Aaron Schatz’s FTN DVOA projections showing a statistical dead heat and pointed out that Green Bay is allowing only 4.6 yards per play while Detroit is giving up 5.1. With the Lions sputtering for two straight weeks and having just made Jameis Winston look like a competent 2026 starter, Richter expects bettors to steam the Packers and shrink the spread before kickoff. He framed the play as ‘defense travels’ value, looking for closing-line equity on a live underdog.

Malik Smith said this is a buy-low spot for Geno Smith and recommended betting Over 1.5 passing touchdowns at -108 on BetRivers. He pointed out that Dallas has been shredded through the air all year, giving up the second-most Net Air Yards per attempt (8.0) and an eye-popping 22 passing TDs against only 19 passes defended entering Week 11. The Cowboys’ secondary upgrades at the trade deadline focused on the front seven (adding Quinnen Williams), leaving the coverage unit untouched. While the Raiders rank 31st in scoring (15.4 PPG) and bottom-three in total offense, Smith has flashed ceiling games against similarly weak pass defenses—throwing three TDs versus Washington and four versus Jacksonville. Smith believes facing a Dallas unit allowing more TD throws than pass break-ups is the confidence boost the quarterback needs and expects the Raiders to lean on the pass to exploit that mismatch.

Leboff took a 1000/1 flyer on three-time Tour winner Chez Reavie at FanDuel strictly on course fit. The Arizona State product finished T3 at Silverado in 2021 and hung around the leaderboard last year before fading on Sunday. While Reavie logged only 10 starts in 2025 and missed six cuts, Leboff argued that elite familiarity with the layout can mask current form and makes the quadruple-digit number worth a small stab.

Michael Leboff recommended Emiliano Grillo at 80/1 on FanDuel, noting the Argentine is no longer the boom-or-bust golfer he was a few seasons ago. Grillo made 10 of his last 11 cuts and posted six finishes of 25th or better, highlighted by a playoff loss at July’s John Deere Classic. Leboff believes that combination of week-to-week consistency and upside is under-priced in a field where attention is centered on Ryder Cup stars.

Michael Leboff advised taking Collin Morikawa at 25/1 on DraftKings to win the ProCore Championship. Leboff acknowledged Morikawa’s rough finish to the 2025 campaign—two straight missed cuts and just one top-10 since March—but argued the market has over-corrected. He reminded readers that Morikawa is still a two-time major champion with a ceiling matched only by Scottie Scheffler in this field. With Ryder Cup captain Keegan Bradley likely watching closely, Leboff expects a focused effort and views the drift from the mid-teens to 25/1 as a classic buy-low spot.