Polzin doubled down on Sam Burns as the safest sub-$8K option and sweetened the pot by recommending a 45-to-1 outright. Burns is trending nicely—T-13 at RBC Heritage, T-11 at Wells Fargo and T-5 at the CJ Cup—while gaining 1.1 strokes per round tee-to-green across that span. He has finished 15th in each of his last two Memorial starts and grades 30th in Polzin’s stat model, highlighted by 6th-best Bentgrass putting and 18th in birdie-or-better percentage over the last 36 rounds. With a DraftKings salary of $7,900, Burns slides perfectly into fair-and-balanced constructions alongside Fleetwood, Conners and Si Woo Kim. Polzin projects a top-20 median finish with legitimate Sunday contention chances, making Burns a core DFS piece and a must-click at 45-1 before books adjust.

Calling him his No. 1 core play, Eric Polzin highlighted J.J. Spaun as both a DFS staple and a betting target at 70-to-1. Spaun ranks 9th in Polzin’s composite stat model—powered by top-15 marks in approach proximity from 175-200 yards, par-5 scoring, and scrambling on Bentgrass greens—and sits 13th in recent-form rating after finishes of T-16, T-21 and T-11 over his last four starts. He has gained strokes with the irons in six straight tournaments and owns a pair of top-30s in previous Memorial appearances, suggesting comfort with Muirfield Village’s demanding second-shot test. At a mid-7K salary on DraftKings, Spaun is the key enabler for Scheffler builds while still offering real win equity; Polzin is allocating roughly 15% of his outright card and 25-30% DFS exposure to the San Diego State product.

Polzin urged caution on Bud Cauley despite a flashy T-3 last week and seven consecutive made cuts. His custom model pegs Cauley only 23rd in overall stat fit because he ranks outside the top-40 in ball-striking, par-5 scoring and birdie rate—three categories Polzin says are non-negotiable at Jack’s Place. The Memorial’s thicker rough and longer par-4s differ dramatically from last week’s venue, so Polzin believes the recent podium finish will inflate ownership without offering comparable upside. He plans to come in well underweight or full-fade in GPPs, preferring similarly priced ceiling plays such as Matthias Schmid or Taylor Pendrith if their ownership stays low.

Eric Polzin singled out Christiaan Bezuidenhout as his favorite sub-8K salary-saver in the value tier. Bezuidenhout has been inching toward a breakout, gaining strokes in three straight events and posting finishes of T-18, T-27 and T-12 while climbing to 17th in Polzin’s recent-form model. More important for this week, he owns sneaky-good history at Muirfield Village—4th in 2023 and 37th in 2024—despite being priced like a cut-maker rather than a contender. Polzin noted that Bezuidenhout sits 11th in the field in bogey avoidance and 14th in Bentgrass putting over the last 36 rounds, two stats he weights heavily for the Memorial. Because the South African rarely attracts heavy ownership, Polzin plans to be 2-3x the field in GPPs and is comfortable pairing him with Scheffler-anchored builds to smooth out cut-risk.

Berger missed the cut in his last start, but Polzin chalked it up to a putting anomaly—multiple lip-outs and edge burns captured on broadcast. Prior to that he had strung together four top-25 finishes and was gaining over 1.2 strokes per round tee-to-green. His price has slid into the low-$7Ks, presenting what Polzin called a classic buy-low spot. He expects ownership to be suppressed after last week’s miscue, making Berger a strong GPP pivot with top-15 equity if the putter merely cooperates.

Polzin warned that Sungjae Im is no longer the cut-making machine of his rookie season but still offers slate-breaking upside. Im owns three top-10s at Muirfield (8th, 10th, and 15th) along with a missed cut, mirroring his recent volatility. Over the last 24 rounds he sits 12th in strokes gained approach yet just 68th in putting, explaining the boom-or-bust results. Polzin recommends deploying Im only in large-field GPPs, getting overweight when projected ownership is muted to capitalize on a potential top-5 outcome.

Polzin flagged Taylor Pendrith as a volatile but high-reward tournament play. Pendrith ranks inside the top-15 in driving distance and approach proximity from 175-200 yards—two metrics historically predictive at Jack’s Place. He owns a pair of T-5 finishes this season (Houston Open, PGA Championship) under similar tough-scoring conditions and rates as a top-20 statistical match in Polzin’s model. Although his Memorial results read 38th and 58th, Polzin thinks the firmer setup in 2025 replicates PGA Championship conditions and could unlock Pendrith’s ceiling. He will overweight the Canadian only if projected ownership stays in the single digits.

Burns has quietly made five consecutive cuts and ranks sixth in Polzin’s recent-form index over the last five tournaments, highlighted by a 5th at the CJ Cup and T-13 at RBC Heritage. Two straight T-15 finishes at Muirfield show he can handle Muirfield Village’s demanding tee-to-green test. At a depressed salary in the low-$7K range, Polzin labels Burns the safest click in the lower tier, especially useful for Scheffler builds that still need cut-making stability and scoring upside.

Polzin views Si Woo Kim as one of the safest mid-tier plays this week. Kim’s Memorial record is elite for the price: 15th, 4th, 13th and 9th in four straight trips to Muirfield Village. His model pegs him sixth in overall stat fit, buoyed by top-10 rankings in par-5 scoring and birdie percentage. While his ball-striking metrics are merely average, Kim offsets that with strong scrambling and a scorching putter on Bentgrass. Coming off a T-28 where one low Saturday cost him a chance to contend, Polzin expects Kim to be both low-owned and live for another top-10 finish, making him an ideal single-entry or cash-game anchor.

Polzin called Sepp Straka a sneaky cornerstone for balanced lineups despite a "disappointing" week prior. Straka sits second in the entire field for overall stat fit, including 7th in birdie-or-better percentage, 11th in ball-striking, and 6th in both greens-in-regulation and par-5 scoring over his last 36 measured rounds. His course history has improved each of the last four years, giving Polzin confidence a win is within range even after his recent victory at the Truist Championship. At a mid-$8K salary Straka gives managers a high floor with legitimate top-5 upside, allowing them to squeeze in Xander plus another upper-mid option without dumpster-diving.

Polzin likes Corey Conners as an outright bet at 33-to-1, noting the Canadian sits second in his model’s recent-form rankings and inside the top-12 for overall stat fit. Conners has gained strokes on approach in nine consecutive starts and ranks sixth on Tour in greens-in-regulation over the last 24 rounds. Although the win has been elusive, he has rattled off finishes of 6th (The Players), 8th, 18th, 8th and T-11 in marquee events, showing he can contend in elite fields. Polzin thinks the Memorial’s emphasis on precise iron play and long par-4 scoring is tailor-made for Conners and suggested pairing him with Xander Schauffele in balanced DFS builds when fading Scheffler.

Eric Polzin pointed out that American books such as DraftKings and FanDuel are still hanging 30- or 31-to-1 numbers on Tommy Fleetwood while Euro-facing shops Betway and Unibet have already trimmed him to 18-to-1. Polzin believes the U.S. price is a clear value because Fleetwood checks every box he wants at Muirfield Village: three top-10 finishes in his past four worldwide starts, top-10 birdie-or-better rate, and a strong par-5 scoring profile that translates at Jack’s Place. His lone start at the Memorial was a T-20 last year, which Polzin views as an encouraging baseline given the limited-field nature of the event. He advised grabbing the 30-1 before it disappears and building DFS cores around Fleetwood in balanced lineups thanks to the sub-$9K DraftKings salary.

Polzin advised fading Justin Thomas this week. Despite Thomas ranking well in the model’s key stats, he enters off a missed cut at the PGA Championship—an event that should have suited him—and has now missed the weekend in two of his past four starts. With Scheffler and Schauffele demanding salary, Polzin does not see the upside in paying a premium for Thomas’s volatile form, especially when safer options like Fleetwood or Connors exist in adjacent price ranges.

Schauffele grades out as the No. 1 ‘specialist’ when Polzin weights the course’s unique characteristics—long par-4s, penal rough, and fast Bentgrass greens. Although his recent form ranks 11th and his overall stat fit 18th, Polzin still views Xander as the second-best golfer in the field. At a sub-$10K salary he slides easily into fair-balanced builds and gives rosters legitimate win equity without paying Scheffler’s premium. Polzin plans to mix in Schauffele on roughly half of the non-Scheffler lineups.

Conners has made 11 consecutive cuts and logged four top-20 finishes over that span, prompting Polzin to label him a ‘made-cut machine.’ The Canadian ranks third in the field in recent form and continues to gain strokes on approach, matching the greens-in-regulation emphasis at Jack’s Place. Polzin likes Conners as a high-floor play for double-ups and single-entry tournaments, especially on rosters built around Scheffler’s hefty salary.

Polzin called Tommy Fleetwood the “next best safe option” behind Scheffler. Fleetwood’s recent form includes a T5 and T10 in his past four starts, and he continues to grade out well in birdie-or-better rate and par-5 scoring—both key stats at Muirfield Village. At a mid-range salary Fleetwood fits naturally in fair-and-balanced constructions, giving lineups a reliable floor without sacrificing upside. Polzin recommended locking him in cash games and sprinkling into GPPs where managers fade Scheffler.

Eric Polzin said Scottie Scheffler should still be the cornerstone of DFS builds and outright cards even at a salary that breaks roster construction. Scheffler has finished 1st, 2nd and 3rd in his last three trips to Muirfield Village and remains, in Polzin’s words, “the only golfer we can fully trust in 2025.” Polzin is planning roughly 50 % exposure to Scheffler on DraftKings and is comfortable firing the 3-to-1 outright number because the field lacks other bankable stars. He acknowledged the lineup squeeze the price tag creates but argued Scheffler’s combination of elite strokes-gained profile and flawless course history justifies the cost.

Polzin doubled down on Ryan Gerard as both a core DFS play and a long-shot outright despite books crashing his odds from 75-1 earlier in the week. Gerard owns a 2nd at the Valero Texas Open and 9th at the Houston Open, plus a fresh top-10 at the PGA Championship. The 9to5 model rates him 5th in recent form and top-10 overall, highlighted by strong approach play and par-4 scoring. Bogey avoidance (38th) and ball-striking (51st) are mediocre, but Polzin believes Gerard’s momentum and proven Texas comfort make him an ideal ceiling swing in balanced builds or as a 66-1 ticket before more steam arrives.

At just above $7,500, Alex Smalley made Polzin’s first-look lineups thanks to a 3rd-best stat-fit grade that features elite iron play. Smalley withdrew here last year but previously posted 4th and 27th, giving him two quality results in three trips. Polzin conceded the WD flags risk but argued the reward outweighs it: Smalley’s three straight made cuts and top-10 ball-striking numbers create true top-10 equity at a mid-range salary. He prefers pairing Smalley with chalkier anchors like Berger or Rai as a tournament pivot.

Polzin highlighted Harry Hall as the sub-$8K name that "stands out a lot" for tournaments. Hall’s putter has powered seven consecutive made cuts and a top-5 at Colonial in 2023. He has also flashed Texas form with 26th at Valero and 18th at the Houston Open. While Hall’s course-specialist rank sits just outside the top tier, Polzin trusts the short-game floor on a layout where bogey avoidance is critical. The Englishman’s volatile off-the-tee profile keeps ownership muted, making him a leverage option in balanced builds that bypass Scheffler.

Polzin labeled Si Woo Kim a classic boom-bust tournament play. The South Korean ranks 6th in the 9to5 stat model and carries top-10 finishes at both the PGA Championship and RBC Heritage this season, yet his recent-form grade is a shaky 53rd. Colonial history is mixed—one WD four years ago balanced by multiple made cuts—so Polzin will monitor ownership: if the field flocks to Kim after his major splash, he will fade, but at sub-15% exposure Kim is on his outright card and firmly in GPP pools thanks to elite tee-to-green numbers on windy, positional tracks.

Polzin advised passing on Maverick McNealy in DFS despite acknowledging solid recent finishes (3rd, 32nd, 3rd) and adequate Colonial history. McNealy sits in the low-$9K range, but Polzin said the price is "a little bit overpriced," especially when fair-and-balanced roster builds offer safer profiles. McNealy grades only 13th on the specialist sheet and lacks top-tier ball-striking metrics that typically separate winners at Colonial. Polzin would not be shocked if McNealy plays well, yet feels the salary-adjusted ceiling is modest compared with similarly priced Si Woo Kim or Tommy Fleetwood. He plans to be underweight unless projected ownership collapses.

Eric Polzin moved Aaron Rai into his CORE column, saying the Englishman checks every box for both DFS and an outright sprinkle. Rai owns finishes of 32nd and 12th in two Colonial starts, and Polzin noted those came before the recent spike in form that now has him trending 39->35->23->19 over his last four tournaments. The 9to5 model grades him 4th in course-specialist score and top-10 in overall stat fit, powered by 9th in Strokes Gained: Approach, 4th in Par-4 scoring, and 30th in ball-striking. Polzin acknowledged a mediocre 59th ranking in bogey avoidance and one poor Texas finish (Houston Open) but views the shortened 45-1 number as proof books respect the ceiling. He is treating Rai as a mid-$8K salary anchor who lets lineups stay balanced while still preserving win equity.

For bettors on BetR or Underdog, Polzin endorsed Bryson DeChambeau UNDER 71.5 Round-1 strokes, effectively banking on a sub-par opening 71 or better. The course scoring average is projected at 71.5, but Polzin expects Bryson to outperform that number given his recent ball-striking resurgence and the advantage his power provides in softer conditions. While he conceded the pick is ‘a little interesting’ because the line equals the projected average, he believes Bryson’s current form tilts the probability toward the under.

Polzin likes Nicolai Hojgaard OVER 11.5 greens-in-regulation in the opening round. He highlighted Hojgaard’s length off the tee as a critical advantage on a Bethpage-style setup expected to play long in cool, wet conditions. Extra distance should leave the Dane hitting shorter irons than the field, elevating his GIR expectation above the baseline 11 greens. Polzin prefers pairing this over with made-cut props in two-pick combinations on PrizePicks.

Polzin doubled down on fading Max Homa by playing UNDER 3.5 birdies or better in Round 1. Last year’s PGA Championship field averaged exactly three birdies per round, and Polzin projects similar difficulty this week. Given Homa’s mediocre recent iron play and the fact that 3.5 is half a birdie above the historical mean, the tout argues the under is the mathematically superior side.

Polzin recommended taking MAX HOMA OVER 71.5 first-round strokes. The course’s historical scoring average is 71.73, and PrizePicks has already bumped the number to 72 in certain states, signalling market resistance on the under. Homa’s recent form is shaky, and Polzin does not see him outperforming the field average on a layout expected to play long and penal in Thursday’s weather. Because the line sits a half-stroke below the venue mean yet Homa’s baseline form is worse than average, Polzin views the OVER as a solid fade.

Eric Polzin said Alex Noren’s made-cut prop is the single best bet on the board. After stripping the vig, his 9-to-5 model calculates a true 54 % chance of Noren reaching the weekend, which still beats the 50 % implied probability of the standard pick-em payout on PrizePicks. Polzin added that Noren has made five straight cuts, owns a previous 24th-place finish at this championship venue, and grades inside the top-50 overall in the 9-to-5 stat model. Those course-history and recent-form boxes, combined with the favourable priced line, make the OVER on 36.5 holes played (or ‘make cut’ on Underdog) his preferred wager.

Polzin advised against selecting Viktor Hovland in Tier 2, bluntly stating the Norwegian is “playing terrible golf” and choosing him would be "just trying to get lucky." Hovland’s recent finishes sit well outside the top-40 in three straight starts, and Polzin prefers consistent performers like Cantlay, Conners or Fleetwood. With no course-specific form to offset the slump, Hovland is a clear fade in pools this week.

For Tier 5, Polzin highlighted Keith Mitchell as the best upside swing. Although DraftKings pricing makes him the least appealing of the Mitchell-McCarthy-Spaun trio, Mitchell owns the shortest average outright odds, is 5th in the week’s stat-fit rankings, and has repeatedly snagged or flirted with first-round leads in four of his last five events. Add solid Quail Hollow history, and Polzin believes Mitchell’s ceiling outweighs slightly lower cut probability, giving pool players a differentiating bullet at the bottom of the card.

Polzin called Tier 4 "pretty simple" and circled Keegan Bradley as the safest route. Bradley sits 19th in the 9-to-5 overall model and, despite letting pool players down at Augusta, has rediscovered form in subsequent starts. Polzin likes pairing his long-term ball-striking profile with solid Quail Hollow comfort. He acknowledged Sam Burns as an interesting alternative but still prefers Bradley for guaranteed cut equity deep into the card.

In Tier 3, Polzin is "probably just going Daniel Berger." Berger ranks top-10 in both key-stat fit and recent-form metrics on the 9-to-5 cheat-sheet. Since returning from injury he has rattled off T15 at API, T20 at THE PLAYERS, T30 at Valero, T21 at Augusta, solo 3rd at RBC Heritage and 11th last week. Although he lacks recent Quail Hollow reps, Polzin trusts the current trajectory and sees a realistic path to a top-10, making Berger the preferred blend of ceiling and stability over riskier options like Patrick Reed or Sungjae Im.

Polzin advised pool players chasing leverage to consider Corey Conners over Cantlay in Tier 2. Conners actually ranks third in the 9-to-5 model—one spot above Cantlay—and has flashed more recent upside, including an eighth-place finish at last year’s Masters and multiple top-10s this season. Because most entrants will default to Cantlay or Tommy Fleetwood, Polzin expects Conners to be the least selected of the top trio, giving savvy managers a chance to gain ground if the Canadian pops.

Discussing Tier 2, Polzin referred to Patrick Cantlay as the "simple and easy click." Cantlay shows the highest make-cut probability in the tier, the shortest odds, and grades No. 1 in the 9-to-5 raw model. Polzin likes that combination of safety and ceiling, noting Cantlay offers both reliable floor points and legitimate win equity—ideal when you do not want to gamble in your pool’s second slot.

Polzin called Xander Schauffele the "dark-horse" Tier 1 option that could separate an entry from a 50-50 Scotty/Rory split. Xander owns back-to-back runner-up finishes at Quail Hollow and has quietly rebounded from an early-season injury with finishes of 11th, 18th, 8th and 12th in his last four PGA Tour starts. Because casual office-pool players are unlikely to click him over the two betting favorites, Polzin views Schauffele as high-leverage upside while still carrying elite course comfort.

Polzin labeled Scottie Scheffler the ultimate floor play for Tier 1. Scheffler’s Vegas price sits at 4.5-to-1 and his 90 percent projected cut rate mirrors McIlroy’s, but Scottie’s weekly top-5 consistency—highlighted by four straight top-5s entering the major—makes him the “easy click” for managers who simply want to lock in points without worrying about ownership. Although Scheffler has not logged a Quail Hollow start, Polzin trusts the world No. 1’s all-around profile and recent form more than enough to offset that lack of specific course history.

Eric Polzin said Rory McIlroy is the premier Tier-1 choice for PGA Championship office pools because the Northern Irishman has "won two of his last three starts" at Quail Hollow, the 2025 host venue. Rory is tied with Scottie Scheffler for the shortest outright number at 4.5-to-1 and carries roughly a 90 percent cut-making probability according to Polzin’s model. McIlroy’s course dominance coupled with elite recent buzz makes him both safe and ceiling-heavy, and Polzin advised riding that record unless you need to dodge what he expects to be a roughly 50-percent roster rate.

Eric Polzin labeled J.T. Poston a mis-priced salary saver at $6,400. Poston brings a 12-event cut streak into the PGA Championship and has finished T23, 11th, 42nd, 26th, 28th, and 33rd over his last six individual starts. While his Quail Hollow results (60th, 81st, 26th) are underwhelming, he grades fifth in the 9to5 "likely course ties" metric and continues to gain strokes tee-to-green. Polzin believes the floor provided by the cut streak and the recent top-30 cadence make Poston a strong glue guy who allows double-stud builds without resorting to sub-6K darts.

Polzin urged listeners to fire a small outright ticket on Mackenzie Hughes at 300-1 and treat him as a GPP flier. Although Canadian by birth, Hughes resides in Charlotte and is the lone true local in the field—a narrative Polzin believes fueled last year’s T10 at Quail Hollow. Form is peaking: three top-10s in his last four starts and a playoff loss at the Myrtle Beach Classic. Add in first-round co-lead flashes at the CJ Cup and Byron Nelson, and Polzin sees legitimate spike-week potential. Given the combination of course familiarity, recent results, and an eye-popping triple-digit number, Hughes is Polzin’s favorite bomb of the week.

Eric Polzin spotlighted Denny McCarthy as a value lock when constructing studs-and-duds lineups. McCarthy has cashed 16 straight weekends and owns elite Quail Hollow results—6th and 8th—powered by a putter that helps him rank 7th in bogey avoidance. Inside the 9to5 model he lands 21st in the specialist bucket, 31st in overall stat fit, and 33rd in recent form, numbers Polzin says are absurd for a mid-$6K price tag. That combination of safety and modest upside lets managers comfortably afford both high-priced superstars while still projecting six golfers through the cut.

Eric Polzin called Keegan Bradley a core DFS piece thanks to the salary break DraftKings handed out at $7,200. Bradley sits inside the top-25 of every stat the 9to5 model weights—bogey avoidance, ball-striking, greens gained, effective scoring, and total driving—while bringing bankable Quail Hollow history (21st, 35th, 18th in three trips). Polzin likes that combination of floor and ceiling for cash or single-entry builds, insisting the veteran should cost at least $1,000 more given his metric profile. With ownership likely muted by the recent missed cut at The Masters, Polzin sees Bradley as “safety plus upside” that lets players jam in Rory or Scottie without sacrificing cut-making equity.

Polzin acknowledged the sticker shock on Rory McIlroy but still endorsed him as a worthwhile pay-up or outright at 4-to-1 to 5-to-1. Rory is the defending Masters and THE PLAYERS champion and owns two prior victories at Quail Hollow, a course he famously gushes about. Recent form remains pristine— a 7th-place tune-up last week joining his string of elite finishes— and he ranks #1 in Polzin’s strokes-gained off-the-tee model for this setup. The catch: salary constraints mean DFS rosters can realistically afford only one of Rory or Scottie. Polzin leans Rory in GPPs where ownership discounts could appear, pointing to Rory’s proven ceiling here and willingness to attack the drive-able par-4s. Bettors comfortable with short odds can plant a flag on the Northern Irishman, then keep cards lean to preserve bankroll.

Polzin urged listeners to grab Daniel Berger at 110-1 on FanDuel before the number corrects, calling it a mis-tag more appropriate for a journeyman than a former top-20 player flashing peak form. Since returning from injury, Berger owns a 3rd at RBC Heritage and an 11th last week, ranking 8th in both recent-form and overall stat fit in Polzin’s 9to5 model. He sits top-10 in strokes-gained approach and total driving over the past 12 rounds, metrics that historically separate contenders at a lengthened Quail Hollow. The only blemish is zero course reps in the last four years, but Polzin is willing to overlook that given Berger’s current ball-striking heater. He recommends adding Berger as a last man in for large-field DFS tournaments and tacking him onto outright cards that fade the super-short favorites.

Eric Polzin labeled Patrick Cantlay the “cheapest safe-upside option” on the slate, perfect for builds that fade the 11K giants. Cantlay has made 16 straight cuts and rolls in with solid form— 4th last week, then 13th, 36th, 33rd, 12th, 31st, and 5th in preceding starts— giving managers a high-floor path to 6-of-6 lineup survival. Although his Quail Hollow history is modest, Polzin trusts Cantlay’s combination of tee-to-green consistency and all-weather short game to bank another top-20. At $9.5K on DraftKings he delivers $1,000+ in savings versus Rory and Scottie while still carrying legitimate win equity. Polzin recommends slotting Cantlay into cash games and single-entry GPPs, noting that any outright number north of 30-1 is worthy of a sprinkle.

Polzin spotlighted Corey Conners as the week’s biggest outright bargain and a slam-dunk DFS core. Conners’ form line is pristine— 3rd at the Arnold Palmer, 6th at THE PLAYERS, 8th at Valspar, T10 at The Masters, and 11th last week— yet FanDuel hung a 75-1 outright price. The Canadian’s profile screams Quail Hollow fit: top-10 strokes-gained ball-striking over the past 24 rounds, elite total driving, and an iron-play surge that has gained 4+ strokes in four of his last five starts. Polzin compared him directly to Ludvig Aberg (priced higher everywhere) and noted Conners grades out better in every metric inside his 9to5 model. With salary relief in the low-$8K range on DraftKings and long odds in the betting market, Conners becomes a two-way core for Polzin— “a guy you start cards and balanced DFS builds with.”

Eric Polzin said Justin Thomas should be one of the first names clicked in both DFS builds and outright cards because the books and DraftKings algorithm clearly lagged on his resurgence. JT owns 18 consecutive made cuts and has rattled off 2nd-1st-2nd-9th finishes in his last four starts (runner-up last week, victory at RBC Heritage, runner-up at Valspar, 9th at Farmers). Polzin’s 9to5 model grades him 6th in recent form, 7th in statistical fit, and 10th in the specialist bucket for Quail Hollow— numbers usually attached to a $10K-plus salary, not the mid-$9K tag DraftKings hung on him. Course comfort is another box checked: Thomas has logged 21st, 14th, and 26th here despite poorer form in those seasons. With 22-1 still available at DraftKings, Polzin is locking Thomas in as his favorite mid-range outright and a tournament-winning ceiling play in DFS cash and GPPs alike.

Polzin reiterated his long-held stance that most LIV players are fades— citing data showing they finish roughly seven spots worse in majors than on the LIV circuit— but carved out an exception for Bryson DeChambeau. Despite the league-wide dip, Bryson remains a fixture on leaderboards at the big four, and Polzin plans to "be on him naturally" this week. DeChambeau’s combination of elite total driving (critical after Quail Hollow was lengthened by roughly 70 yards) and proven major performance offsets the generic LIV penalty Polzin applies in his rankings. While he stops short of labeling Bryson a core play, Polzin is comfortable mixing the former U.S. Open champ into DFS builds and outright cards at any number 25-1 or longer.

Eric Polzin called Xander Schauffele a slam-dunk core play and outright bet. Schauffele returns to Quail Hollow as the defending PGA Champion and owns absurd course form: runner-up finishes in three of his last four starts here with a worst result of 14th. When Polzin expanded the sample to the last four majors, Schauffele’s finishes read 2nd-2nd-2nd-14th, underscoring how well his game travels on the biggest stages. The 9to5 stat model— built on bogey avoidance, ball-striking, greens gained, effective scoring, and total driving— grades him as one of the top fits in every category, and Polzin notes the additional 70 yards added to the layout only enhances Schauffele’s edge. With that bulletproof combo of course history, recent major form, and statistical dominance, Polzin is anchoring DFS lineups around Xander and grabbing any outright number north of 10-1.

Eric Polzin flagged Keith Mitchell as his favorite salary-saver and a first-round-leader dart for the 2025 PGA Championship. Mitchell shows up inside the top tier of Polzin’s stat model that weights bogey avoidance, ball-striking, greens gained, effective scoring, and total driving— all skills that historically separate contenders at Quail Hollow. Polzin loves targeting Mitchell in FRL markets because the Georgia Bulldog routinely opens hot and already has multiple first-round-lead cashes on Tour. With DraftKings leaving him "priced extremely cheap" relative to other bombers who check the same statistical boxes, Polzin sees minimal downside in locking Mitchell into DFS lineups while sprinkling a FRL ticket at 65-1 or better.

Eric Polzin circled Sepp Straka as both a core DFS piece and an outright bet at 45-1. Straka grades inside the top-10 of Polzin’s key-stat model (SG: Approach, Fairways Gained, Par-4 450-500 scoring) and has produced three top-15s in the last five comparable signature events: 13th at the RBC Heritage, 5th at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, and 11th at the Cognizant Classic. Polzin likes that Straka can manufacture birdies in no-cut formats—he sits 9th in Birdie or Better Rate over the last 24 rounds—and thinks his accurate driver negates the thick rough that will punish wayward bombers. With a proven scoring profile and a palatable salary, Straka is locked into Polzin’s main lineup and on his betting card.