Tony Farmer expressed real hesitation on Stefon Diggs despite an obvious path to monster volume in New England. Beat writers say Diggs has "disappeared" in practice and Mike Vrabel bristled when asked about his Week 1 status, raising durability and chemistry flags. Farmer acknowledged Diggs could command a 30-plus percent target share with only Demario Douglas and Kyle Williams competing for looks, but the wide range of outcomes pushed him toward avoidance at current fantasy ADPs and toward caution on early-season receiving-yardage overs until camp noise quiets.

Tony Farmer said Sam Darnold is a clear fade in both season-long formats and early player-prop markets after signing with Seattle. His main concern is protection: Pro Football Focus graded the Seahawks’ offensive line 30th in 2024, a massive drop from the top-10 unit Darnold played behind in Minnesota. Farmer added that losing Justin Jefferson’s gravity will make life harder because Seattle’s current receivers do not demand double-teams as often. He expects the pressure rate Darnold faces to spike and warned that bettors should look at unders on Darnold’s passing yards and touchdown totals until the line or scheme proves otherwise.

Tony Farmer called Davante Adams a boom signing for the Rams and a bet-on name in September prop markets. He argued Adams finally reunites with high-end quarterback play—Matthew Stafford posted a top-six EPA per dropback when healthy last year—something Adams has not enjoyed since 2021. Unlike his Raiders and Jets stints, Adams will face less double coverage thanks to Puka Nacua drawing attention underneath. Farmer compared the situation to Adams’ 2016 season with Jordy Nelson, predicting spike weeks right away. He recommended looking at receiving-yardage overs during the first few weeks before books fully adjust to the upgraded environment.

Tony Farmer doubled down on Joe Burrow, backing him at +550 to lead the league in touchdown passes. Beyond Cincinnati’s leaky defense forcing high-volume passing, Farmer highlighted that Burrow doesn’t siphon touchdowns with his legs the way Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, or Josh Allen do. Those quarterbacks “cannibalize themselves” with rushing scores, whereas Burrow funnels virtually every Bengals red-zone TD through the air.

Tony Farmer likes Joe Burrow at +500 to lead the NFL in passing yards. He normally hunts longer shots but believes the Bengals’ "so bad" defense will keep Burrow in shootouts all season, pushing his attempt volume past competitors. With health no longer a question coming out of camp, Farmer views the 5-to-1 number as fair value for Burrow to pace the league.

Tony Farmer said he is fading Jared Goff in 2025 prop markets, noting that Detroit replaced "one of the most creative minds in the NFL" with a clear downgrade at offensive coordinator. Farmer added that the Lions’ offensive line projects worse than last year, further dampening Goff’s efficiency ceiling. With both play-caller and protection trending the wrong way, Farmer prefers unders on Goff’s passing yards and touchdowns.

Tony Farmer urged bettors to fade Matthew Stafford’s season-long passing props. While some point to Stafford gutting it out in Detroit years ago, Farmer reminded listeners that the quarterback is now significantly older and the chronic back problems have only gotten worse. He expects missed games or diminished arm strength to undercut Stafford’s totals and sees little upside in backing any overs.

Tony Farmer advised betting the under on Tua Tagovailoa’s 2025 passing totals. He cited Miami’s "questionable offensive line" and Tagovailoa’s documented concussion history as a combination that raises both efficiency and games-played risk. Farmer sees enough downside volatility that rather than avoiding the market entirely, he prefers taking the under on any volume-based props for Tagovailoa.

Tony Farmer said Caleb Williams is a strong bet to smash his 2025 passing props and is even worth a sprinkle in the +3,700 MVP market. Farmer argued that going from the Matt Eberflus/Shane Waldron combo to Ben Johnson calling plays is "one of the worst situations to one of the best." He listed an upgraded supporting cast—DJ Moore, Rome Odunze, Cole Kmet plus top-10 draft picks Colson Loveland and Luther Burden—and noted that even depth WR Olamide Zaccheaus caught 45 balls last year. Pro Football Focus grades Chicago’s offensive line 4th overall, and Farmer believes even a top-12 finish would be a huge step forward. The kicker: Williams threw just one interception over his final 11 games of 2024, and that was a Week 17 Hail Mary. With excuses gone, Farmer likes Williams’ overs in season-long passing yards (12th on the board) and touchdowns.

Nick Holz urged drafters to target Marvin Mims Jr. in Round 13 as a breakout candidate. Mims led the league with 12.1 yards after catch last season, ranked fourth in yards per route run (2.86), 14th in yards per target, and finished first in PlayerProfiler’s target-separation metric at 2.73 yards. He also placed seventh in target rate, second in fantasy points per route run and per target, and fourth in QB rating per target. From Weeks 11-18 he logged two top-12 weekly finishes and multiple multi-touchdown games despite limited volume. Holz expects Sean Payton to expand Mims’ role with rookie quarterback Bo Nix, and believes Mims’ elite speed and separation will translate into a full-blown fantasy breakout.

Nick Holz pegged Jordan Mason as his favorite running-back sleeper. After being traded to Minnesota, Mason brings a 5.2-yards-per-carry average from his brief San Francisco breakout, where he finished as a top-five fantasy back in three of his four starts. Holz expects Mason to handle goal-line duties while sharing snaps with Aaron Jones, whose 300-plus touches last year and spotty durability create a clear path to a bigger role. In an offense that won 14 games and regularly reaches the red zone, Mason could be a league winner if Jones misses time. Holz advised drafters to grab him now, before his climbing ADP passes the double-digit rounds.

Nick Holz said fantasy managers should scoop up Dak Prescott in the double-digit rounds as a high-upside sleeper. Prescott averaged 20 fantasy points per game in his last fully healthy campaign and threw for more than 4,500 yards under Brian Schottenheimer just two seasons ago. Holz likes the upgraded supporting cast that now features George Pickens opposite CeeDee Lamb, Jake Ferguson at tight end, and newcomer Javonte Williams in the backfield. He added that Dallas’ aggressive, boom-or-bust secondary routinely allows explosive plays, forcing the offense into weekly shootouts that pad passing volume. With an ADP around Round 13, Holz believes Prescott can deliver top-10 quarterback numbers at a rock-bottom price.

Tony Farmer ultimately echoed Avery’s Baltimore-Cincinnati-Pittsburgh-Cleveland finish but warned bettors not to lock it in blindly. Farmer thinks the Bengals’ defense "could be so bad" that Cincinnati slips to third, allowing the Steelers to steal the runner-up spot behind Mike Tomlin’s steady hand. While he still projects the Browns as a distant fourth, he views the 2–3 spots as fluid and suggested hunting alternative exact-order tickets or Steelers-to-finish-second props at plus money.

Andrew Avery said Lamar Jackson is worth a bet at +550 to win MVP at BetMGM. Avery likes that Jackson enters 2025 with a chip on his shoulder after many believed he out-played eventual winner Josh Allen last season. He pointed to Jackson’s "off-the-charts" 2024 regular-season numbers and noted MVP voters often shy away from back-to-back winners, creating a potential over-correction in Jackson’s favor after finishing runner-up. Continuity is another selling point: Mark Andrews, Isaiah Likely, Derrick Henry, the wide-receiver group and most of the offensive line all return, giving Jackson year-over-year stability that few contenders enjoy. Because the award is regular-season only, Avery is unconcerned about any lingering playoff narrative. He expects Jackson to be in the final two-to-three names discussed and believes +550 offers enough value to fire now.

Tony Farmer recommended Lamar Jackson at +550 (BetMGM) to win the 2025 MVP. Farmer said Jackson posted MVP-caliber numbers last season and carries a chip on his shoulder after many analysts felt he deserved the award over Josh Allen. Because MVP voting ignores postseason results—where critics question Jackson—the Ravens quarterback can lean on his elite dual-threat efficiency and a still-loaded Baltimore roster to replicate or exceed last year’s statistics, making the price attractive.

For survivor-pool players, Tony Farmer circled Week 6—Steelers hosting the Browns—as one of only two ideal times to burn Pittsburgh. Cleveland will be on its third straight road game, including a London trip, while the Steelers come off a bye, creating a rare scheduling edge for a team projected in the league’s 18-20 range. Farmer advised holding Pittsburgh until this spot to maximize expected win probability relative to alternative weeks.

Andrew Avery bet Cincinnati under 9.5 wins at +115 (DraftKings). He argued the Bengals lost key defenders—Sam Hubbard, Jermaine Pratt, Mike Hilton, Sheldon Rankins—and replaced them with downgrades such as T.J. Slayton and an untested second-round linebacker while also switching from respected DC Lou Anarumo to college coach Al Golden. Last year the team became the first in NFL history to average 27.8 points in losses, underscoring how porous the defense was. Avery also flagged a front-loaded schedule that includes the entire NFC North by Week 9 plus road trips to Denver and Buffalo, a shaky offensive line, and the possibility one injury derails an already thin roster.

Tony Farmer grabbed Steelers over 8.5 wins at +105 on FanDuel, noting Mike Tomlin has never posted a losing season and now has far more talent than the "mediocre" rosters he previously dragged above .500. He highlighted a revamped secondary with Darius Slay and Jalen Ramsey outside plus ascending Joey Porter, and a ferocious front seven featuring Alex Highsmith, Patrick Queen, T.J. Watt and interior rookie Derek Harmon, who logged 34 QB pressures at Oregon. Farmer believes even average quarterback play—he compared potential production to last year’s mix of Russell Wilson and Justin Fields—gets this roster to nine or ten victories.

Andrew Avery took the plus-140 DraftKings prop that Cleveland’s longest 2025 winning streak stays under 1.5 games. He pointed to a brutal travel pattern—Cincinnati in Week 1, at Baltimore in Week 2, a West-coast swing to Las Vegas in Week 12 immediately followed by San Francisco, and a Miami-New England-bye-at-Jets gauntlet from Weeks 7-10—as spots that make back-to-back victories improbable. Avery also cited an unsettled quarterback room headlined by Joe Flacco with two unproven youngsters behind him and overall roster weakness, arguing the Browns lack the offensive consistency needed to stack wins.

Nick Holz labeled Josh Downs his favorite breakout, citing elite underlying metrics: 30th in targets-per-route, 24% target share, 2.29 yards per route run, eighth in YPRR versus man, and a 44% separation rate. Downs averaged 14–15 PPR points with Joe Flacco compared to 12 with Anthony Richardson, underscoring how quarterback accuracy boosts his slot-heavy skill set. Holz is comfortable regardless of whether Daniel Jones or Richardson wins the reported camp battle but said a Jones victory would be "a smash" for Downs. With a DraftKings prop of 700.5 yards (-115 over) and a reasonable mid-round ADP, Holz believes Downs can outkick cost and become an every-week starter.

Nick Holz said Rome Odunze is his No. 1 breakout pick because Ben Johnson’s new Chicago offense mirrors the play-action, in-breaking route tree Odunze dominated with at Washington. Holz pointed out that Keenan Allen’s departure frees up 100-plus targets, and insisted the Bears “can’t get worse” after last year’s chaotic route combos. Odunze already flashed with an 11th-best 13.8-yard aDOT, ranked 10th in red-zone targets, and produced 54-734-3 as a rookie despite the dysfunction. Drafted around overall pick 38 (round 11 in early best-ball rooms), Holz believes Odunze can smash that price and finish inside the top-15 fantasy WRs, easily clearing his 800.5 receiving-yards line at DraftKings.

Tony Farmer advised taking the Dolphins at 25-to-1 on Bet365 to finish with the NFL’s worst record. He argued the wager hinges on two big red flags: (1) Tua Tagovailoa’s extensive concussion history paired with a deteriorating offensive line after Terron Armstead’s retirement and a second-year left-tackle who graded in the 40s by PFF; and (2) a locker-room cloud that includes ongoing Tyreek Hill drama and questions about Mike McDaniel’s job security. Farmer believes a single Tua injury flips Miami from a middling roster to Zach Wilson leading a bottom-three offense, making the long number attractive if you ‘simulated the season 25 times’.

Andrew Avery countered that pairing Josh Allen at +600 for MVP with a Bills Super Bowl future creates an attractive correlated payout. Avery highlighted that several books now offer MVP-championship combo tickets and that Buffalo’s 2025 schedule is unusually soft for a team coming off a division title. With Allen likely to post gaudier counting stats against that slate and media narratives rewarding a bounce-back passing season, Avery argued the ceiling outcome is better captured through the combo market than the straight 6-to-1 MVP ticket alone.

Tony Farmer advised bettors to fade Josh Allen’s current +550 to +600 MVP price. Farmer pointed out that Allen’s traditional passing numbers pulled back last season, making it unlikely that voters reward a similar statistical line two years in a row. While acknowledging Allen’s dual-threat impact, Farmer believes narrative fatigue and the difficulty of going back-to-back after already winning the award make the implied 15–17% probability too steep. He prefers allocating bankroll elsewhere in preseason awards markets.

Andrew Avery said Keon Coleman is a value target in season-long and best-ball formats because his vertical skill set already meshes with Josh Allen’s aggressiveness. Avery noted Coleman ranked fourth among all NFL wideouts with at least 50 targets in 2024 thanks to a 33.9% deep-target rate. Coleman publicly called his own rookie campaign "trash," took accountability for conditioning issues, and has reportedly rededicated himself this off-season. Avery argued that if Coleman simply stays on the field he can convert those high-aDOT looks into a "nice little breakout," even if he falls short of 1,000 yards. The analyst emphasized Buffalo’s soft first-place schedule, which should provide plenty of neutral- or positive-script passing volume to support at least one secondary receiving option behind Stefon Diggs.

Andrew Avery played Keon Coleman over 750.5 receiving yards at ‑110 (DraftKings). He expects a breakout sophomore season now that Coleman is fully healthy and facing limited depth-chart competition. Coleman ranked fourth among WRs with at least 50 targets in 2024 with a 33.9% deep-target rate and already posted a 125-yard game versus Tennessee last year. Avery likes the established connection with Josh Allen, the Bills returning all five starting linemen, and the offense’s top-three PFF ranking to keep volume high enough for Coleman to flirt with 800-plus yards if he simply maintains last season’s per-route efficiency over a full schedule.

Tony Farmer recommended two Garrett Wilson props: over 925 receiving yards at ‑110 (Bet365) and an alternate 1,250-plus yards at +550 (FanDuel). Wilson has already cleared 1,040 yards in each of his first three seasons despite catching passes from Zach Wilson, Mike White, Trevor Siemian, Tim Boyle and a diminished Aaron Rodgers. Farmer called new starter Justin Fields an unquestionable upgrade, pointing to Darnell Mooney’s 1,000-yard campaign and DJ Moore’s near-1,400 yards with Fields in Chicago as proof the quarterback can feed a WR1. With better QB play and Wilson’s established floor, Farmer expects another statistical jump and likes both overs.

Nick Holz labeled Chris Olave a stay-away despite his youth and talent. Olave’s 2025 outlook is poisoned by what Holz calls "arguably the worst quarterback situation in the league," with Spencer Rattler, 26-year-old rookie Tyler Shough or late-rounder Jake Haener expected to battle for the starting job. Holz doubts new coordinator Clint Kubiak can elevate an offense that already cratered last year. He also flagged major concussion concerns: Olave suffered his fourth documented NFL concussion (fifth since college), forcing him to miss the final nine games of 2024. With an ADP around 76 (6th/7th round) and a DraftKings line of 825.5 yards, Holz prefers cheaper, healthier options and would bet the under on Olave’s yardage.

Nick Holz urged drafters to pass on Cooper Kupp even at his current seventh-round price. Since winning the 2021 receiving triple crown, Kupp has posted three straight seasons of declining yardage, culminating in just 10 catches over his final five games of 2024. Now 32 and coming off multiple lower-body injuries, he also faces a clear downgrade in environment: Sean McVay’s funnel scheme and Matthew Stafford have been replaced by Seattle’s offense and Sam Darnold. Holz added that DraftKings lists Kupp at only 775.5 receiving yards for 2025, a number he is comfortable taking the under on. Between age, health and situation, Holz says Kupp is a landmine pick who belongs on do-not-draft lists.

Nick Holz warned managers to steer clear of Tyreek Hill at his current top-15 ADP for 2025 drafts. Holz cited a perfect storm of age (Hill turns 31 during the season), mounting durability worries and a sharp drop-off in efficiency once defenses adjusted last year. From Weeks 8-16 with Tua Tagovailoa, Hill ranked just 24th in fantasy points per game, 39th in yards per route run and 34th in target share, while his 56.4 receiving yards per game were his lowest since his rookie year. Holz believes those splits point to a longer-term decline rather than a blip and notes DraftKings has already hung a modest 975.5-yard receiving prop, reinforcing the under. With similar names in the same range offering fewer red flags, Holz is fading Hill in all season-long formats and would lean under on that yardage line.

Nick Holz warned that Jared Goff is being drafted at his 2024 ceiling (QB10) and is a clear fade for 2025. Goff just logged career-best marks—4,629 yards and 37 TDs—but Holz doubts a repeat with OC Ben Johnson gone to Chicago. Detroit’s interior line took hits as center Frank Ragnow retired and guard Kevin Zeitler left in free agency, a major concern for a pure pocket passer like Goff. A brand-new offensive system, an already banged-up Amon-Ra St. Brown (knee surgery), and the NFL’s third-hardest schedule (based on 2024 win percentage) further cloud the outlook. DraftKings set Goff’s passing-yard prop at 3,900.5 (-110 both ways), almost 750 yards below last year. Holz believes drafters paying QB10 prices are buying a best-case scenario and recommends fading Goff.

Nick Holz advised avoiding Justin Herbert in 2025 drafts because Jim Harbaugh and OC Greg Roman plan to ground-and-pound. Roman’s history and the additions of Najee Harris plus rookie Amarian Hampton point to a rush-centric attack, leaving fewer pass attempts for fantasy scoring. Herbert’s production is already trending down: sub-4,000 passing yards and only 25 TDs last season after eclipsing 5,000/38 as a sophomore. He has failed to crack the fantasy top-10 at the position for three straight years. DraftKings opened Herbert’s 2025 passing-yard line at 3,600.5 (-110 each side), reflecting tempered market expectations. Holz sees no path to the 40-attempt games needed to smash his QB14-ish draft slot and is passing on Herbert.

Nick Holz said fantasy managers should steer clear of Josh Allen at his current 2025 ADP of 22 overall (early round-2 in 12-team formats). Holz argued Allen would need a historic campaign—think Aaron Rodgers 2011, Peyton Manning 2013/14, or Patrick Mahomes 2018—to pay off that slot. He noted Allen’s 2024 passing yardage and touchdown totals were both down from his career norms, and even his rushing yardage slipped despite a career-high 15 rushing scores masking the decline. Holz prefers Lamar Jackson, Jayden Daniels, and Jalen Hurts, all of whom go later and boast stronger supporting casts. DraftKings has Allen’s rushing-TD prop at 10.5, signaling sportsbooks also expect regression. With a shrinking statistical cushion and a sky-high draft cost, Holz is fading Allen in season-long drafts.

Nick Holz predicted a huge sophomore leap for Caleb Williams with offensive wizard Ben Johnson now in Chicago. As a rookie Williams endured three coordinators and admitted no one even taught him NFL film study, yet from Week 11 on he still ranked as a top-10 fantasy QB—throwing 11 TDs to 1 INT over the final eight games. Johnson’s Lions offenses consistently finished top 5 in yards and scoring, and he now inherits a weapons group of DJ Moore, Rome Odunze, Cole Kmet plus rookies Colston Loveland (TE) and Luther Burden. GM Ryan Poles shored up interior protection by signing Joe Thuney and other vets, addressing the constant up-the-middle pressure that plagued Williams early. Holz framed the coaching upgrade, fortified line and expanded skill-talent as ingredients for a 2025 breakout that could vault Williams into the fantasy QB1 conversation.

Nick Holz projected Trevor Lawrence to rebound in 2025 under new play-caller Liam Cohen, who just engineered Baker Mayfield’s career year (4,500 yards, 41 TDs) and a 31 percent fantasy-point jump in Tampa. Holz argued Lawrence’s pre-Cohen numbers already mirror Mayfield’s pre-breakout profile, and Jacksonville has upgraded the supporting cast by adding two freak athletes—Travis Hunter and Brian Thomas Jr.—to Calvin Ridley’s old outside role. With Cohen designing a vertically aggressive scheme, Holz expects Lawrence to eclipse DraftKings’ 3,700.5-yard prop (±110) and regain the 25-TD, 4,000-yard form he showed in 2023. Lawrence’s ADP currently trails the elite tier, so Holz labeled him a prime mid-round target for season-long drafters looking to bank top-5 upside at a discount.

Nick Holz said Drake Maye is a "certifiable breakout candidate" for 2025 now that Josh McDaniels returns to call plays in New England. From Weeks 6-17 of his rookie year Maye averaged 17.4 fantasy points and 36 rushing yards per game—trailing only Lamar Jackson, Jaden Daniels, Anthony Richardson and Jalen Hurts on the ground. McDaniels’ Patriots offenses have finished lower than 8th in scoring just once across 13 seasons, and Maye now adds Stefon Diggs as an alpha target, rookie slot winner Kyle Williams underneath, explosive Day 2 back Travion Henderson and first-round LT Will Campbell to shore up protection. The Patriots also own the league’s second-easiest schedule by 2024 win percentage, giving Maye soft match-ups plus a DraftKings prop of 19.5 passing TDs (-120 to the over) after he threw 15 in just 13 games. Holz framed all of it as the perfect storm for a sophomore surge in season-long and best-ball drafts.

Nick Holtz recommended passing on David Montgomery at his RB20 price tag. Montgomery averaged 16 touches per game across the past two seasons but is coming off an MCL injury and should cede more opportunities to the far more explosive Jameer Gibbs. Holtz expects Montgomery’s touchdown-driven 2024 fantasy production to regress, especially with offensive coordinator Ben Johnson leaving Detroit, a change he believes will pull down Jared Goff’s and, by extension, Montgomery’s red-zone output. He slots Montgomery as a low-end RB2 and thinks drafters are paying a premium for last year’s scores.

Chalk Ninja said he would bet the under on Aaron Jones’ 2025 rushing-yards prop of 775.5 at DraftKings (-110). He recalled Jones repeatedly leaving games early last season, highlighted the planned 1A/1B split with Jordan Mason, and emphasized that Jones is now on the wrong side of 30. With diminished volume and elevated durability concerns, Ninja doubts Jones reaches 776 yards, making the under an attractive wager.

Nick Holtz advised fading Aaron Jones in 2025 drafts despite the veteran’s likable reputation. Jones posted career-high carries and rushing yards last year, but his efficiency is tailing off: yards per carry has declined in back-to-back seasons and he ranked 40th of 46 qualifying backs in missed tackles forced per attempt. Now entering his age-30 season, he heads to Minnesota where Kevin O’Connell has already called the backfield a "1A-1B" split with Jordan Mason, signaling a cut in volume. Combining eroding efficiency, reduced opportunity and typical age-related risk, Holtz finds Jones an unappealing pick at his current cost.

Nick Holtz said drafters should avoid Saquon Barkley at his current early-first-round ADP in 2025 drafts. Barkley logged almost 400 touches during the Eagles’ Super Bowl season, a threshold that has historically preceded injury or sharp production decline; Holtz referenced post-peak examples like Shaun Alexander, LaDainian Tomlinson and Christian McCaffrey. He added the Madden-cover "curse" to the risk profile and stated he would rank Barkley closer to RB4-5, preferring ascending or sturdier options such as Bijan Robinson and Derrick Henry. Because virtually everything broke perfectly for Barkley in 2024, Holtz doubts a repeat and sees no justification for spending a top-half first-round pick on him in season-long leagues.

Jon Anik said bettors should give real consideration to Dustin Poirier at even money in the UFC 318 main event. Anik believes the Smoothie King Center crowd will be a net positive for Poirier, stressing that the Louisiana native "eats pressure for breakfast" and historically channels big-fight energy instead of wilting. He pointed out that Poirier will enter first in the blue corner, meaning he can soak up the atmosphere while Max Holloway walks last, a dynamic Anik thinks will further energize the hometown favorite. Citing conversations with "sharp handicappers," Anik noted that many are already leaning toward Poirier in what has become a near pick-em matchup. With both men capable of ending the fight on one shot but the intangibles—home crowd, retirement stakes, and Poirier’s proven ability to compartmentalize emotion—swinging in Poirier’s favor, Anik framed the even-money price as attractive betting value.

Nick Holz called Bucky Irving his favorite breakout, arguing the Buccaneers must lean on him after he out-performed Rashad White while playing under 65 % of snaps. Even on limited work Irving averaged 14 PPR points per game, and when touches climbed over the final eight contests he posted 18.1 PPR points. In his rookie year’s five games with 10+ carries, he racked up 128.4 total yards and 0.8 TDs per game (20.8 PPR). Holz projects those touch counts to rise sharply in 2025 under a still-intact offensive line with Baker Mayfield plus re-signed Mike Evans and Chris Godwin keeping boxes light. Current ADP is RB9, yet Holz envisions a top-four finish and likes the DraftKings over on 1,025.5 rushing yards (−115).

Nick Holz touted Chase Brown as the screaming value of 2025 drafts, available outside the top-10 RBs despite RB1 usage down the stretch. Once Zach Moss went down, Brown averaged 23 touches over Cincinnati’s final eight games and finished fifth among running backs in receptions. From Week 8 on he never dipped below double-digit PPR points and sat as the overall RB6. Holz expects him to obliterate last year’s 1,350 total yards because the Bengals retained both Tee Higgins and Ja’Marr Chase, keeping defensive attention off the run game. DraftKings lists Brown at 875.5 rushing yards (−110 both sides); Holz loves the over, projecting a workload closer to 275 touches in a top-five scoring offense.

MacLean labeled Cameron Young the lone American he will back regardless of forecast, targeting a top-20 and sprinkling the 70-1 outright. Young has teed it up in three Open Championships and already owns two top-10 finishes plus a T31 last year, showing he can handle both benign and brutal links conditions. MacLean likes that Young consistently gains strokes off the tee, giving him scoring chances even when irons cool, and believes his comfort on firm, running turf sets him apart from other U.S. power players who struggle to flight the ball down. If the weather turns nasty, MacLean still trusts Young’s Open pedigree to cash placement tickets.

At a triple-digit 110-to-1, Steve MacLean sees Matt Wallace as a classic English grinder who could thrive if Portrush plays tough. Wallace has already shown major mettle this season—T17 at the PGA Championship and T23 at the U.S. Open—despite both layouts favoring bombers. MacLean pointed to Wallace’s tidy driving accuracy, proven patience in wind and extensive links background as reasons the number is too long. He suggested betting an each-way or top-40 and expects Wallace’s price to tighten once sharper bettors notice the course fit.

MacLean highlighted Jordan Smith as a sleeper who could pop if his Scottish Open form holds. Smith has been quietly piling up top-20s on the DP World Tour and was runner-up at last week’s BMW International Open. The Englishman’s game is built on fairway-finding and precise irons—traits MacLean values more than raw distance at Portrush, especially in cross-winds. Because books still price Smith like a fringe qualifier, MacLean likes sprinkling an outright ticket and backing him in placement markets once odds post after the Scottish Open.

Steve MacLean called Robert MacIntyre his favorite outright among the shorter prices if Royal Portrush gets its usual wind. MacLean reminded listeners that a 22-year-old MacIntyre finished T6 the last time the Open was held here and posted the low round (68) on Sunday while the field ballooned over par. Since that debut, the left-hander has padded his links resume with wins at the Scottish Open and Canadian Open and is arriving fresh off a runner-up finish at the U.S. Open on a course that did not suit him. MacLean argued the Scot’s upbringing on windy, firm Scottish tracks plus current peak form make him the perfect blend of course history, weather aptitude and confidence. He recommended an outright and each-way, noting the market will only shorten once the forecast confirms gusts.

Steve MacLean urged listeners to avoid Justin Thomas in all major-championship markets. Despite two career majors, Thomas has missed the cut in seven of his last ten majors and failed to finish better than T36 in that span. In 2024 alone he missed the cut at both the PGA Championship and U.S. Open after a mediocre T36 at Augusta. MacLean said Thomas never seems to deliver when bettors back him and therefore has created a personal three-year no-bet rule on JT until he shows real form. With links unpredictability adding another layer of variance, MacLean sees Thomas as a bankroll liability at Royal Portrush.

Steve MacLean said he will bet Scottie Scheffler to win the Claret Jug if the Open week forecast shows minimal wind. He argued that calm conditions remove much of the randomness that typically levels the playing field at this major, turning the event into a pure ball-striking test—Scheffler’s wheelhouse given his season-long dominance in strokes-gained tee-to-green and relentless run of top-5 finishes. MacLean called the tournament "wide open" in good weather but concluded Scheffler’s underlying metrics make him the clear play even at a short price, provided the wind cooperates.

Steve MacLean advised bettors to steer clear of Bryson DeChambeau at Royal Portrush. He noted that DeChambeau’s irons "haven't been dialed in all season" and that the former U.S. Open champ relies on a bomb-and-gouge style ill-suited to classic links golf. MacLean stressed that the Open demands artistry, flight-control and patience in wind and rain—traits European grinders possess but DeChambeau generally lacks. With American power players historically struggling on firm, windy links setups, MacLean sees little value in Bryson’s odds and recommends fading him in outright, placement and DFS builds.