Calling it a ‘vibes pick,’ Geoff Clark risked 0.18 units on Andrew Novak at +11000 and laid a half-unit on the Top-20 despite Novak ranking just 94th in his model. Clark leaned on Novak’s course history—3rd at the 2025 Farmers and T13 at the Genesis three weeks later—and a breakout 2025 campaign that included a playoff loss to Justin Thomas at the RBC Heritage, a T17 at the Truist Championship, and T6 at the FedEx St. Jude playoff opener. Novak even notched his first TOUR victory at the team-format Zurich Classic alongside Ben Griffin. Clark emphasized that Novak gained strokes with every club at Torrey Pines in both 2025 rounds and believes that kind of all-around profile warrants a small outright ‘sprinkle’ at triple-digit odds.

Geoff Clark sprinkled 0.22 units on Max Homa at a massive +9251 on Kalshi and a half-unit on Top-20, indicating he would still play Homa down to +5000. Clark cited a quiet resurgence since the 2025 FedExCup Fall—T19 at the Procore Championship, T18 Sanderson, T9 Bank of Utah, and T27 at The American Express last week—after what he called ‘a terrible regular season.’ Homa already owns a Farmers trophy (2023) and thrives on long, demanding venues, evidenced by prior wins at Quail Hollow and Riviera and top-tier Masters finishes (T3 in 2024, T12 last year). Clark’s thesis: when Homa is in form he has no weakness, and the most likely spot for a 2026 bounce-back win is a California track he has already conquered, making any number north of 50-1 a clear overlay.

Geoff Clark wagered 0.40 units on Adam Scott at +5000 (to win 20u) plus 0.5u on a Top-20 and also named the Australian his One-And-Done play for the week. Scott sits third in Clark’s Betsperts model and has gained strokes ball-striking in six of his last seven ShotLink starts. Unlike many peers, Scott skipped the offseason: he played three DP World Tour events, the Japan Open, and the first two 2026 PGA TOUR stops, posting finishes of 7th (BMW Australian PGA), 5th (Crown Australian Open), and two made cuts to open 2026. Clark pointed out Scott’s comfort on bumpy West-Coast Poa—17th in this field in SG: Putting on Poa over the last 36 rounds—and a stellar Torrey Pines resume with a runner-up in 2019 and a T10 in 2021, each time gaining more than one stroke per round on the greens. Clark is saving Matsuyama for a bigger purse event, so Scott is his tournament anchor in both betting and One-And-Done formats.

Geoff Clark grabbed Will Zalatoris at +4800 for 0.42 units to win 20 units and tacked on a half-unit Top-20. Clark acknowledged Zalatoris’ 18-month injury history but noted that Torrey Pines is the one place where the Texan actually gains strokes with the putter because the greens are Poa. Zalatoris has made four of seven cuts at Torrey with finishes of T7, 2nd, T13, and T23, and he has gained ball-striking strokes in six of those seven appearances, including the 2021 U.S. Open. Over the last 12 months he still sits 19th in this field in SG: Approach and 23rd in 200-plus-yard approaches. Clark said the elite ball-striking puts Zalatoris ninth in total SG at Torrey and sixth on crossover tracks, so he wants to invest before the number inevitably shortens once ‘old Willy Z’ resurfaces.

Geoff Clark said he risked 0.67 units at +3000 on Hideki Matsuyama to win the Farmers Insurance Open and added a 0.5-unit Top-20 ticket. Matsuyama ranks fourth in Clark's Betsperts model and is, in Clark's opinion, a top-five talent in the field yet only the eighth betting choice. Clark highlighted recent form—victories at the 2025 Hero World Challenge and 2025 Sentry plus a T13 at the 2026 Sony Open—along with elite fit for Torrey Pines: third in approach shots from 200+ yards and eighth in Strokes Gained Around-the-Green over the last 12 months. Poa is the only surface where Matsuyama gains putting strokes, and short-game specialists such as Harris English, Max Homa, Patrick Reed, Justin Rose, and Jason Day have all won this event. Clark thinks the market is over-reacting to the stronger field and sees a Saturday/Sunday leaderboard that plays directly into ‘Deki’s’ strengths.

Clark placed 0.16 units on Tom Kim at +12500, labeling the wager another "buy-the-dip" special. Despite a disappointing season, the 23-year-old already owns three PGA TOUR wins and thrives on short, positional tracks with Bent/Poa greens—the exact profile of Silverado Resort. Evidence: T-7 at the 2025 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (California) and a playoff loss to Scottie Scheffler at the 2024 Travelers Championship, both signature events on tight, wedge-heavy courses. Clark notes that Kim’s statistical strengths mirror Silverado’s key demands (precision irons, reliable flatstick) and trusts the underlying talent more than the recent results. With triple-digit odds in the strongest fall field to date, Clark sees Kim as a live longshot for an outright or top-finishing ticket.

Geoff Clark grabbed Sahith Theegala at a juicy +12500 for 0.16 units, calling it a classic buy-low. Theegala missed chunks of the season with two separate injuries, yet Clark argues no one owns better course history—Theegala captured the 2023 edition (then the Fortinet) and remains a Silverado horse. A Southern California native and Pepperdine product, Theegala is comfortable on Bent/Poa greens and resort-style layouts. His limited 2025 highlights (T-17 Genesis Invitational, solo 3rd at the 2024 TOUR Championship) reassure Clark that the talent is intact now that Theegala says he’s healthy. With course familiarity, California roots, and triple-digit odds, Clark believes the value on Theegala to win or place is too large to ignore.

Geoff Clark fired a full-unit outright bet on Sam Burns at +2000 (FanDuel). Burns slotted No. 2 in Clark’s Betsperts Golf model—trailing only World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler—because he dominates the two metrics Clark deems most predictive at Silverado Resort: putting and wedge play. Over his last 50 measured rounds Burns leads this field in Strokes Gained: Putting and ranks ninth on approaches from 100-150 yards. Driving accuracy is usually Burns’ bugaboo, yet Clark downplayed that flaw noting Silverado’s forgiving rough, just two holes with water, and minimal penalty unless a tee shot ends up behind a tree. Clark also framed Burns as the "most due" player without a 2025 win: he slept on the 54-hole lead at the U.S. Open (finished T-7), lipped a six-footer to lose a playoff at the RBC Canadian Open, and still logged 10 top-20 finishes this season. Course-fit boxes are checked as well—T-7 in his lone Silverado start (2020) while gaining strokes everywhere, eighth in this field for total SG in California, and seventh in SG: Putting on Bent/Poa greens that mirror Napa’s surfaces. A five-time TOUR winner who shines exactly where Silverado demands, Burns is Clark’s headline play for a breakthrough victory.

Geoff Clark grabbed Chris Gotterup at +4500, stating his fair number is +3000 given current form. Gotterup ranks 2nd in the field in total Strokes Gained over his last 20 rounds—trailing only World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler—thanks to a win at the 2025 Genesis Scottish Open followed by a solo 3rd at The Open. He sits 2nd in SG: Putting over the last 16 rounds and prefers Bermudagrass, the surface awaiting at Southwind. Driver usage at this course runs 20% above TOUR average, dovetailing with Gotterup’s strengths: 7th in SG: Off-the-Tee this season, 3rd in driving distance, and 3rd in SG: Ball-Striking over the last 36 rounds per BetTheNumber.com. Clark argues the former Haskins and Jack Nicklaus Award winner can overpower the layout and ride a sizzling putter, making the +4500 outright a value play in a 69-man field.

Geoff Clark fired on Sam Burns at +4000, leaning on both numbers and narrative. A Louisiana native and LSU alum, Burns is accustomed to the oppressive August heat at TPC Southwind and is one of the TOUR’s elite Bermudagrass putters. Over the last 36 rounds he is tied with Ludvig Aberg for 1st in total driving, a blend of distance and accuracy that matters on a course Clark calls "sneaky long with a ton of water." Burns has gained strokes in ball-striking in seven consecutive starts and in all five of his prior St. Jude appearances. His Memphis history includes a T5 in 2024 and a playoff loss in 2021. Recent close calls—a playoff defeat at the 2025 RBC Canadian Open and surrendering a 54-hole lead at the U.S. Open—have Clark saying the five-time winner is "due." Burns already owns three victories on southern crossover tracks such as Valspar and Sanderson Farms, and a win here would likely cement a Ryder Cup berth. Clark views +4000 as juicy for a player with Burns’ course fit and form.

Geoff Clark bet Hideki Matsuyama at +3500 to win the St. Jude, calling the number "disrespectful" for the defending champion. Matsuyama led last year by five after 54 holes, double-bogeyed 15 on Sunday, then birdied the final two holes to capture the title despite losing 3.3 strokes around the green, normally his greatest strength. Clark noted Hideki has gained strokes putting in four straight visits to TPC Southwind and in eight of his last nine starts overall. Although Matsuyama has struggled to find fairways this summer, he ranked ninth in driving accuracy during a T19 finish at last week’s Wyndham after an early out-of-bounds tee ball led to a triple. He sits 2nd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach over the last 20 rounds, per Betsperts Golf. Clark believes that if Matsuyama keeps the ball in the short grass and continues his recent iron and putting form, he can pull off a rare back-to-back victory in Memphis at attractive odds.