Pat Moore doubled down on his Hopkins bullishness, declaring the veteran will have 12 touchdowns "by November." Moore argued that Baltimore finished sixth in red-zone pass rate under Todd Monken and that Hopkins’ career 61 percent contested-catch success makes him the obvious jump-ball option for Lamar Jackson. He dismissed concerns about target competition, saying Zay Flowers is a "space" receiver and Mark Andrews commands attention between the hashes, leaving perimeter and end-zone looks for Hopkins. Moore also noted Hopkins finally gets a full offseason to master the playbook after last year’s mid-season transition to Kansas City. With Hopkins routinely going in the final round, Moore views him as a near-free bet on double-digit TD upside in a top-five offense.

Peter Overzet said Miles Sanders is the exact kind of final-round running back who can swing Best Ball Mania drafts. He pointed to fresh Coach Speak Index notes in which Dallas staffers praised Sanders for looking "explosive" and picking up the playbook quickly. Overzet reminded viewers that Sanders was less than two years removed from a 1,269-yard, 11-TD season in Philadelphia before getting buried on last year’s dysfunctional Panthers offense. With the Cowboys declining to add a premium back and the depth chart otherwise filled with Day-3 picks and special-teamers, Pete believes Sanders could easily seize 60-plus percent of early-down and goal-line work. The pick also gives his roster a Week-17 bring-back opposite Jake Ferguson and Washington’s run-heavy attack. At a current ADP around 200, Overzet called Sanders "pure upside with built-in correlation at a rock-bottom price."

Peter Overzet said Miles Sanders is the exact kind of final-round running back who can swing Best Ball Mania drafts. He pointed to fresh Coach Speak Index notes in which Dallas staffers praised Sanders for looking "explosive" and picking up the playbook quickly. Overzet reminded viewers that Sanders was less than two years removed from a 1,269-yard, 11-TD season in Philadelphia before getting buried on last year’s dysfunctional Panthers offense. With the Cowboys declining to add a premium back and the depth chart otherwise filled with Day-3 picks and special-teamers, Pete believes Sanders could easily seize 60-plus percent of early-down and goal-line work. The pick also gives his roster a Week-17 bring-back opposite Jake Ferguson and Washington’s run-heavy attack. At a current ADP around 200, Overzet called Sanders "pure upside with built-in correlation at a rock-bottom price."

Pat Moore pitched DeAndre Hopkins as a smash last-round pick, saying drafters are treating him like "dust" even though Baltimore lacks a true alpha wideout. Moore reminded listeners that Hopkins has averaged 9.3 targets per game across his career despite playing with what he called "a bunch of dustballs" at quarterback. Sliding into a Todd Monken offense that finished 6th in red-zone pass rate, Moore sees an 8–12 target ceiling for Hopkins while defenses key on Zay Flowers deep and Mark Andrews inside. If beat writers report strong Lamar-to-Hopkins chemistry in camp, Pat expects the current ADP to rocket up multiple rounds, making now the last chance to bank 500-700 yards and six-plus TDs at a floor price.

Peter Overzet explained that taking Cam Ward as a naked QB3 solves the roster’s Goff-and-Stafford bye-week crunch. Pete argued Ward is "way more likely" than Daniel Jones or Anthony Richardson to be starting by Week 8, thanks to clearer depth-chart runway and a front office that wants him on the field early. Ward’s dual-threat profile—over 1,100 collegiate rushing yards across the past two seasons—gives him a realistic 15-point floor even if Seattle keeps the playbook simple. That steady output is all the team needs to survive the bye, while any unexpected spike week from Ward’s legs would be pure upside in Best Ball tournaments.

Pat Moore jumped on Jake Ferguson after an 8-pick ADP tumble, calling the fall “too good to pass.” Ferguson already handled a 17% target share on 88% route participation in 2023, and Moore noted the Cowboys never replaced vacated red-zone looks from departed Michael Gallup. Grabbing Ferguson at the discount not only juices expected value but also creates an under‐owned Week-17 mini-correlation versus Brian Robinson and Washington’s run-heavy attack. Moore likes the combo for Best Ball Mania because it boosts uniqueness without sacrificing any median projection at tight end.

Peter Overzet said Dalton Kincaid is the perfect "floor" piece when you’re rolling out a three-late-tight-end construction. Because the Bills ran the league’s 4th-highest pass-rate over expectation last year and let Kincaid log 79% route participation over the final eight games, Pete believes the sophomore can bank 4–6 catches most weeks. Pairing him with boom-bust rookie Tyler Warren lets drafters chase Warren’s fifth-round ceiling while still locking in weekly points from Kincaid. The added bonus is a cheap Week-17 Bills stack with Khalil Shakir, giving the roster correlation juice without paying up for Josh Allen or Stefon Diggs.

Peter Overzet said Tyler Warren is the rare late tight end who could rocket into next year's fifth round. He likes grabbing Warren around pick 130 because the rookie owns Brock Bowers-type athletic markers (4.62 forty at 252 lbs, 92nd-percentile burst) yet slipped in the real draft, depressing his ADP. Overzet noted that Indianapolis has lacked a true pass-catching tight end since Jack Doyle, but Shane Steichen's scheme still funneled 109 targets to the position last season. With Anthony Richardson's big arm forcing safeties deep, Warren should see plenty of seam-stretching routes, giving him both weekly spike potential and a realistic path to 70+ targets. All that ceiling at a double-digit price tag makes Warren a priority piece in three-late-TE builds.

Pat Moore recommended scooping Jakobi Meyers a half-round ahead of ADP instead of blindly clicking Chris Olave. Moore argued that the "slight reach" costs almost nothing in median projection but provides two edges: (1) Meyers almost never makes it back in the draft room, so you secure a high-floor WR3 who posted a 20.2% target share and nine touchdowns in 2023, and (2) the Raiders wideout gives this roster a far less duplicated Week-17 mini-correlation against the Giants, differentiating it from the avalanche of Olave + Burrow builds he expects to flood Best Ball Mania. In short, Meyers is an undervalued volume receiver whose current late-5th ADP delivers structural uniqueness without sacrificing scoring potential.

Pat Moore opted for Jonathan Taylor in the mid-second round, explaining that Underdog’s half-PPR format nudges running backs up the board relative to full-PPR sites. Moore said he would have gone WR/WR on a full-PPR platform but believes Taylor’s three-down workload and touchdown equity score better in half-point scoring. Locking in an anchor RB early also lets him push the position for several rounds while the expected receiver avalanche unfolds, giving the roster better overall balance without sacrificing upside.

Peter Overzet said he purposely bypassed the chalky Puka Nacua + Davante Adams turn pairing because, in his words, “so many people are going to be doubling Puka with Davante.” Instead, he grabbed Kyren Williams to keep the Rams correlation while creating a far less duplicated roster construction in Best Ball Mania. Overzet noted that stacking Williams with Nacua lets drafters circle back later for a cheap Matthew Stafford or Rams tight end, producing a full-team stack that very few opponents will replicate at those ADPs. The underlying idea is simple: the Kyren pivot captures any game-breaking Rams offensive spike weeks without sharing a roster combo that thousands of other entries will have at the top of their draft boards.

Pat Moore cautioned drafters against chasing Alan Lazard at the end of Best Ball drafts this year. While Moore liked Lazard in 2023 because the veteran already had chemistry with Aaron Rodgers, he is "not as high on him this year" since the Jets are expected to lean far more on the ground game with Breece Hall fully healthy and a revamped offensive line. A run-first approach would cap Lazard’s target volume behind clear alpha Garrett Wilson and newly-added perimeter option Mike Williams, making him an avoid outside of very deep builds.

Peter Overzet said his earlier Best Ball Mania share of Travis Etienne is "aging gracefully" because new Jaguars offensive coordinator Liam Cohen has been "gushing" about Etienne this spring. Overzet interpreted the public praise as a strong hint that Cohen plans to keep Etienne in a true every-down role rather than splitting early-down work with Tank Bigsby. If Etienne maintains last season’s 76 percent snap rate while benefiting from a more up-tempo Cohen scheme, Pete thinks drafters could be getting a discounted RB1 at his current late-second ADP in Best Ball.

Pete Overzet singled out Geno Smith as one of his favorite quarterbacks in the 90-to-160 ADP window, calling that stretch the ‘sweet spot’ for three-QB builds. Smith is routinely the last passer in that tier to come off the board despite finishing 10th in EPA per drop-back two years ago and retaining DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett and Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Overzet believes Seattle’s modest pass-rate projections are already fully priced in, while drafters are overlooking Smith’s sneaky 20-plus rushing-yard floor and cheap stacking partners. Because Best Ball Mania rooms bunch nine quarterbacks in that pocket, grabbing Smith around pick 150 lets you pair him with an earlier upside QB (Stroud, Tua, Kyler) and still tack on a late flyer like Tyler Shough for bye-week coverage. The strategy locks in weekly usability without paying the Round-4 tax attached to the elite names.

Pete Overzet explained why he keeps gravitating toward MarShawn Lloyd over other late-round rookie backs like Taj Brooks or Breschard Smith. In his personal probability model, Lloyd carries roughly a 70 % chance of opening the year as Green Bay’s RB2 behind Josh Jacobs, whereas he gives Brooks and Smith closer to a 20–25 % shot of being the clear No. 2 in their respective backfields. That confidence stems from three factors: (1) the Packers spent Day-2 capital on Lloyd, (2) coaches have already name-checked him when discussing potential ‘alpha’ pass-game contributors, and (3) the only backs ahead of him are a soon-to-be-30 Josh Jacobs and journeyman A.J. Dillon. Because early best-ball contests punish zeros, Overzet prefers allocating late bullets to runners with a stronger RB2 floor while still retaining contingent RB1 upside if the starter misses time.

Overzet reassured drafters who fear Pat Bryant’s meteoric rise—he was an 18th-rounder a week ago—that the rookie wideout will not climb to a point where he’s undraftable. He expects a classic ‘boomerang’ in rookie ADPs: early-summer enthusiasm pushes prices up, but one bland Sean Payton press conference or a quiet OTA period will pour cold water and let Bryant settle back into the late double-digit rounds. Because Denver’s depth chart is still wide-open behind Courtland Sutton, Overzet is comfortable continuing to click Bryant a round ahead of current ADP, confident a ceiling remains baked in and the floor is protected by an eventual market correction.

Pete Overzet advised locking in Dalton Schultz in the mid-16th round whenever you already have C.J. Stroud and Nico Collins. Schultz completes a low-cost double-stack, allows you to punt the earlier tight-end window, and comes in a draft pocket where running back options are flattened out anyway. Overzet likes that Schultz still commanded an 18% target share last season and should remain Stroud’s primary red-zone outlet even after the arrival of Stefon Diggs. The takeaway: when you build Texans stacks, use Schultz as the correlation glue piece instead of forcing a more expensive tight end earlier.

Pete Overzet highlighted rookie Pat Bryant as a fast-rising late-round wideout whose ADP keeps creeping up because Denver’s receiver depth chart is wide open behind Courtland Sutton. Bryant, a third-round pick, can realistically leapfrog Marvin Mims and Josh Reynolds for perimeter snaps, and Overzet likes taking cheap stabs at any ambiguous room tied to an offense Sean Payton wants to open up. Bryant fits that bill while still costing a double-digit round pick, so Overzet is starting to grab shares now before summer camp hype pushes him into the single-digit rounds.

Overzet said he takes T.J. Hockenson every time he’s available in this mid-round pocket because the move instantly completes a premium double-stack with Justin Jefferson while solving the thin tight-end position. Minnesota finished top-10 in yards per play last season, and Overzet expects rookie passer J.J. McCarthy to keep the offense humming. Grabbing Hockenson at ADP protects Jefferson drafters from getting shut out of the stack later and bakes in correlated ceiling for the playoff weeks.

Overzet grabbed rookie Tyrone Tracy at pick 110 and laid out why he prefers him over sixth-round teammate Cam Skattebo. Tracy converted from wide receiver, giving him the pass-catching chops coaches want, and should see the bulk of early-down work in what Overzet believes will be an improved offense with Russell Wilson under center. Skattebo’s short-yardage profile does not scare him because the team did not invest heavy draft capital there. Bottom line: Tracy is the cheapest path to lead-back volume in this backfield and worth any draft-room slide past ADP 110.

Pete Overzet said he is comfortable scooping Jauan Jennings in the double-digit rounds, calling the veteran a potential “alpha” if San Francisco’s wide-receiver room thins out. Because Jennings is practically free, Overzet likes pairing him with Brock Purdy and Brandon Aiyuk to complete an inexpensive 49ers double-stack. The logic is simple: Purdy routinely spreads the ball, and any spike in Jennings’ snap share could translate into week-winning scores while most of the room is chasing Deebo Samuel or Aiyuk 80 picks earlier. Overzet’s takeaway: when you need a late wideout and already have Purdy exposure, click Jennings for low-cost ceiling.

Pete Overzet said drafters should snap up Jalen Hurts any time he freefalls to the late-5th or early-6th round, even if they do not already own an Eagles pass-catcher. Hurts’ ceiling remains largely tied to his rushing—18 goal-line carries and 15 rushing TDs last season—so the correlation penalty for going ‘naked Hurts’ is minimal. Overzet pointed out that Philadelphia offers cheap back-door options later (Dallas Goedert around Round 9 and rookie RB Will Shipley in the teens), but you do not need them because Hurts’ spike weeks were actually negatively correlated with A.J. Brown’s and DeVonta Smith’s blow-ups in 2023. With the market hesitant to draft an unstacked elite quarterback, Overzet views a sliding Hurts as instant leverage: you lock in 30-point rushing upside and can still backfill modest correlation pieces without paying the premium attached to Brown or Smith.

Pete Overzet predicted that Kenneth Walker III will not be hanging around the early-sixth round much longer. He thinks projections will eventually pin Walker’s 2024 workload closer to the Kyren Williams / Breece Hall tier than to the RBs currently drafted in the 60s. The reasoning: (1) every piece of Seattle coach-speak since March has emphasized a return to power football—more two-tight-end sets, a dedicated fullback package, and heavier emphasis on the ground game; (2) Walker has dominated backfield touches whenever healthy, averaging 19.7 carries in his fully active games last season while Zach Charbonnet was limited to relief duty; (3) staffers keep praising Walker by name, suggesting there is no quiet committee brewing. Overzet acknowledged drafters are spooked by Sam Darnold’s quarterback play and Walker’s nagging injuries, but believes those concerns are already baked into the price. Once summer rankings lock in a 275-touch projection, he expects Walker’s Best Ball Mania ADP to climb at least a round, so he is grabbing the Seahawks runner today before that window slams shut.

Pete Overzet called Isaac TeSlaa a perfectly acceptable Round-17/18 dart throw because Detroit’s offense is too efficient to ignore any cheap pass-catcher who might climb the depth chart. He pointed out that Jameson Williams continues to give off "weird vibes," leaving only Josh Reynolds and Kalif Raymond between TeSlaa and meaningful snaps. The Lions ranked top-5 in EPA per play and red-zone pass rate last year, so even a part-time role could translate into usable spike weeks. Overzet noted the team traded up to bring TeSlaa in and that the rookie’s contested-catch profile meshes with Jared Goff’s tendency to target big bodies near the goal line (David Montgomery saw 38 red-zone carries, Sam LaPorta 26 red-zone targets). Bottom line: with little blocking his path and Detroit projected for another season of offensive fireworks, TeSlaa offers asymmetric playoff upside at virtually no opportunity cost.

Pete Overzet advised grabbing Tyler Lockett in the double-digit rounds whenever you are building late Tennessee stacks. The Titans’ rookie wide-receiver picture is still a mess—he jokingly referred to "Shimmery Decay" and "I’m" as complete unknowns—and he expects we will not know which, if any, are playable until deep into August. Lockett slides 8-10 spots past his 2023 closing cost, yet still brings a bankable 20-plus percent target share and proven spike-week volatility. Overzet’s logic: rather than burning a pick on a Titans rookie who could be a season-long zero, use Lockett as a reliable bring-back with immediate utility while you wait for training-camp clarity. If one of the Tennessee rookies does earn a role, you can always add him later in other drafts, but today the veteran gives you correlation and production at virtually the same ADP.

Pete Overzet selected rookie Cam Ward as his QB2 after pick 160, calling the Titans passer an ideal best-ball gamble. Ward offers differentiated rushing juice at a basement ADP, something Overzet prizes when he already has a safe floor in Baker Mayfield. The Titans have Calvin Ridley locked in as the No. 1 but everything else—Tyler Lockett, Chig Okonkwo, a cluster of rookie receivers—is "ambiguous," giving drafters multiple cheap back-stack options in the final rounds. Overzet likes that Ward can add 30–40 ground yards and a goal-line score on any given week, mitigating Tennessee’s uncertain passing volume. Because Ward costs almost nothing and the room can still tack on a third quarterback (he mentioned Tyler Shough or Anthony Richardson) if needed, Overzet views him as a high-ceiling, low-opportunity-cost way to finish QB rooms that missed on earlier elite stacks.

Pete Overzet said he is still willing to draft Dalton Kincaid at current Best Ball Mania cost even though Buffalo’s scheme suppresses tight-end ceilings. He admitted the Bills will "run more than we want" and continue to rotate personnel, limiting Kincaid’s raw route volume and denying him a classic play-action, every-down role. However, Overzet believes the market is over-reacting to last year’s modest usage. Kincaid played through multiple nagging injuries as a rookie and still flashed, and—crucially—the Bills declined to add meaningful target competition this offseason. That vote of confidence plus a healthy offseason leaves room for a Year-2 leap. Overzet’s takeaway: the structural ceiling may be lower than a Mark Andrews-type profile, but in the ninth- or tenth-round pocket Kincaid remains an easy buy on Josh Allen rosters because a snap-share bump and improved health could turn him into a 6-catch weekly floor with touchdown upside.

Pete Overzet grabbed Travis Etienne at pick 128 to super-charge a developing Jacksonville super-stack built around rookie wideout Travis Hunter. He argued the price is light relative to Etienne’s 71% snap share, top-five breakaway-run rate, and 58 targets last season. New play-caller Dave Canales wants to keep the up-tempo pace that ranked eighth in neutral situations while adding more outside-zone looks—schemes that accentuate Etienne’s 4.45 speed and one-cut burst. Pairing Etienne with Hunter preserves flexibility: if Trevor Lawrence falls back to the next pick, drafters can add QB correlation; if not, Etienne still delivers a standalone RB1 ceiling in the same Houston-Jacksonville game environments that project among the highest Week-17 totals. Overzet’s stance: whenever Etienne slips into the mid-11th, scoop him as a discounted bell-cow who completes one of the AFC South’s most fantasy-friendly stacks.

Pete Overzet said Tyler Shough is firmly draftable in Rounds 17–18 because the path to season-long starts is clearer than the market thinks. New Orleans enters camp with only journeyman Derek Carr threatening Shough, and a new coaching staff has no loyalty to the veteran. Overzet emphasized that Shough’s collegiate tape shows functional mobility and a willingness to push the ball, traits that pair nicely with speedy wideouts Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed. In a late-round QB landscape littered with job-security landmines, Shough provides both opportunity and correlation outs: a full-season takeover would unlock weekly 3-TD potential, while even spot starts still correlate with cheap Saints pass-catchers already going in the double digits. His advice: skip the dusty WR6 darts and use an 18th-round pick on Shough anywhere you need a third quarterback.

Pete Overzet celebrated landing Rashid Shaheed at straight ADP, calling it the perfect bring-back for his Tampa Bay stack. Shaheed’s 16.8-yard aDOT and 2.62 yards per route versus zone coverage give him week-winning volatility—exactly what you want opposite Mike Evans and Chris Godwin in potential late-season NFC South shootouts. Overzet added that New Orleans faces Tampa in Weeks 16 and 17, so the correlated upside directly overlaps the Best Ball Mania playoff window. With divisional familiarity, dome weather, and virtually no competition for deep targets behind Chris Olave, Shaheed offers “cheap access to 20-point bombs” while costing only a late-10th/early-11th pick.

Pete Overzet acknowledged Baker Mayfield sits 30 spots below his pick in ETR’s raw ranks but said the double-stack with Mike Evans and Chris Godwin makes him worth the reach. He walked through his four-box rubric—ETR rank, ADP, positional need, and correlation—and pointed out that Mayfield hits three of the four: he was the second-best value by ADP, filled the build’s glaring QB hole, and completed a premium pass-catcher stack. If the bet hits, the room now lives in a world where Mayfield posts a top-three fantasy season, instantly leveraging earlier capital spent on the Buccaneers receivers. Overzet’s takeaway: ignore the vacuum ranking and treat Mayfield at face-value ADP any time you already own both primary targets, because the correlation equity more than cancels out the isolated projection miss.

Pete Overzet said he had to smash David Montgomery when the Lions back slid well past slot value, noting ETR’s ranks show him as a clear tier ahead of the other names on the board. Montgomery’s 2023 profile—268 touches, 14 TDs, and top-10 red-zone attempts—remains intact behind one of football’s three best offensive lines and in Ben Johnson’s run-friendly red-zone script. Overzet reminded listeners that Jahmyr Gibbs does not threaten Montgomery’s goal-line monopoly and the Lions projects for another 26-plus rushing TD season. In a hyper-fragile build that already featured Walker and another early back, Montgomery locks in weekly RB2 production while still offering multi-score spike weeks. At his current ADP he is “the rare middle-round runner that checks rank, ADP and floor all at once,” making him an easy click whenever he falls a round past consensus.

Pete Overzet advised pushing Joe Burrow past the four-five turn whenever possible, saying his projection team has Burrow a full round behind current Best Ball Mania ADP. The issue is ceiling: Burrow averaged just 14.4 rushing yards per game over the last two healthy seasons and ranks outside the top-15 quarterbacks in designed-run rate, capping weekly upside relative to rushing QBs going in the same range. Overzet’s plan is to let Chase or Higgins drafters overpay; he will only click Burrow when rooms let him slide into the mid-60s or later. If you believe Burrow’s ADP is truly efficient, Overzet conceded you might lock in the stack half the time, but because his model values rushing quarterbacks more heavily, he personally will push the exposure "close to 100 percent" of the time and allocate those draft-capital savings to skill players.

Pete Overzet said his ranks just bumped Kenneth Walker III up half a round because he now projects Seattle to pivot back toward a ground-first identity. He and his projection partner lowered the Seahawks’ expected pass rate after reading between the lines on coaching-staff comments and personnel moves (specifically, beefing up at guard and letting Noah Fant walk). That shift gives Walker a clear path to 275+ touches if he stays healthy. Overzet reminded listeners that Walker owns a 97th-percentile breakaway-run rate over his first two seasons and posted 4.6 yards per carry even during last year’s "down" campaign. With the big-play juice intact and Seattle unlikely to rotate rookies heavily near the goal line, Overzet is comfortable selecting Walker at pick 40—two to three spots ahead of current ADP—and pairing him with cheap Seahawks pieces later for correlation.

Pete Overzet grabbed Travis Hunter at the 4/5 turn and said he is happy to pay that price before the schedule release. Overzet argued Hunter would have been the consensus WR1 in this class if he were listed strictly as a wideout, noting multiple draft analysts had him graded above Brian Thomas Jr. on pure receiver traits. Jacksonville reportedly plans to deploy Hunter almost exclusively on offense, which alleviates worries about two-way usage sapping snaps. Overzet also likes the Jaguars environment after Dave Canales improved the pass game last year—Jacksonville ranked eighth in neutral-situation pace and added perimeter speed in the draft. Hunter’s current ADP wavers between the late third and early fifth because some drafters fear the "cornerback moonlighting" talk; Overzet thinks that uncertainty bakes in a discount that will evaporate once preseason reports confirm a full-time receiver role. His takeaway: click Hunter any time he slips past pick 45 and enjoy a rookie with WR1-overall talent attached to an up-tempo offense.

Pete Overzet said the hypothetical Metcalf-for-Pickens deal that would send DK Metcalf to Dallas instantly juices both Metcalf’s and Dak Prescott’s best-ball value. With no established WR2 behind CeeDee Lamb, Metcalf would walk into a massive target share while keeping Lamb’s schemed-touch volume intact. Leone’s preliminary ranks (which Overzet referenced) bumped Dak several spots because the Cowboys’ pass efficiency would spike; Metcalf, meanwhile, gains weekly ceiling thanks to a quarterback who finished top-five in EPA per play last year and an offense that averaged 35.4 pass attempts even in positive game scripts. Overzet acknowledged concerns about Dallas’ overall throw rate if they play with more leads but said being the clear perimeter alpha offsets that risk. Bottom line: draft Metcalf confidently two or three picks ahead of current ADP and treat Dak as a mid-tier QB1 whenever you can complete the new stack cheaply.

Pete Overzet said his only regret from the live draft was taking Rhamondre Stevenson at pick 130 instead of reaching almost 20 spots for rookie Ray Davis, who ultimately went at 148. Because the roster already featured Josh Allen, Overzet wanted the cheap Buffalo correlation and believes Davis’s role in a high-powered offense gives him tournament-winning upside that compensates for the reach. With drafters increasingly hunting for late-season Bills stacks, he expects Davis’s ADP to tighten, so he is comfortable grabbing the rookie a full round ahead of current consensus whenever he anchors an Allen build.

Pete Overzet pushed back on the idea that Alvin Kamara’s price will rise once summer drafts heat up. He argued there is no catalyst—no rookie hype piece, no depth-chart shake-up—that would spark enthusiasm the way a big camp report might for a younger back. In fact, he sees multiple reasons for Kamara to slip: talk of Derek Carr stepping away and the possibility of 26-year-old rookie Tyler Shough starting at quarterback dampen the overall offensive outlook. Unless beat writers start raving about Shough peppering Kamara with two-yard check-downs all camp, Overzet expects the veteran to drift a round or two cheaper. His advice: stay patient or remain underweight until that discount materializes.

Pete Overzet predicted that Joe Mixon could easily jump an entire round and wind up going ahead of Zay Flowers and DJ Moore in upcoming Best Ball Mania rooms. He hears a growing drumbeat of "over-valued" talk around both wideouts while Mixon continues to benefit from bullish chatter after landing in Houston. With negative sentiment pushing the receivers down and nothing but quiet optimism propping Mixon up, Overzet would not be shocked if their ADPs simply flip. His actionable takeaway: grab Mixon now while he still sits behind those two in drafts before the market correction makes the veteran back a mid-fourth-round pick.

Pete Overzet said he is struggling to click Kyren Williams at his current third-round Best Ball Mania cost because the bet is "basically all volume and trust." Williams posted exactly 0.0 rush yards over expected per carry last season, so every fantasy point came from McVay feeding him touches and using him as a pass-pro specialist near the goal line. While that coaching trust does create a moat, Overzet noted the Rams intentionally drafted a different archetype in rookie Jarquess Hunter—an explosive runner instead of another Williams clone—signaling they want juice, not just reliability. If beat writers start describing Hunter as a weapon who forces a rotation, Williams’ ADP could slide toward the Joe Mixon/Chuba Hubbard tier a full round later, which is where Overzet would feel comfortable taking him. Until then he would rather grab higher-upside backs like Omarion Hampton in the fourth and settle for about 8 percent exposure to Williams instead of matching market weight.