Ron Romanelli renews his sharp criticism of the New York Mets' lofty win total, strongly recommending the under bet. Despite superstar Juan Soto's presence, he argues the rotation’s health and reliability remain major concerns—highlighting injuries to Sean Manaea and Frankie Montas and the frequent injury issues of Kodai Senga. He points to Clay Holmes as the questionable opening day starter, doubting his stamina and viability in a full-time starter role. He also expects regression from David Peterson and Tylor Megill, leaving the rotation vulnerable. Additionally, Romanelli believes the bullpen depth is shaky and susceptible to injuries, and views the offense as overly reliant on top-heavy production from players like Lindor, Soto, and Alonso. He predicts significant regression from Mark Vientos, and doubts that the lower half of the projected lineup consisting of players like Jesse Winker, Jose Siri, Brett Baty, and Luis Torrens can produce consistently, especially after losing Francisco Alvarez to injury. He also notes the Mets were fortunate last year going 28-16 in one-run games, likely predicting regression in close contests. Thus, he strongly advocates betting the Mets' win total under for 2025.

Ron Romanelli strongly advises betting the Colorado Rockies to exceed their projected win total of 61.5 in the 2025 season. He argues this number is set too low, noting the overall weakening of NL West rivals Padres and Giants, thus providing additional winnable games. Romanelli also points to Colorado's consistently solid record at Coors Field as another critical reason they should comfortably surpass this modest expectation.

Ron Romanelli is confidently backing the Dodgers to win the NL West at -600 odds, arguing this still represents strong betting value despite the heavy juice. Romanelli emphasizes the extremely high probability of this outcome, estimating the Dodgers win the division at least 90% of the time, well above the 86% implied odds at the -600 price. He highlights the Dodgers' already dominant team bolstered by significant pitching acquisitions Roki Sasaki and Blake Snell, plus increased depth that mitigates injury concerns such as Tyler Glasnow and Yoshinobu Yamamoto. With the bullpen strengthened by Kirby Yates and the offense reinforced by Michael Conforto along with reigning MVP Shohei Ohtani, Romanelli sees the Dodgers as near-locks barring catastrophic injuries. He strongly urges bettors to take advantage of this "pricey but profitable" wager.

Ron Romanelli sees excellent betting value taking the Cincinnati Reds at +450 odds to win the NL Central division. He acknowledges the division's uncertainty and volatility, with the Brewers, Pirates, Cubs, and Reds all capable of widely varying outcomes. Romanelli highlights the Reds' potential offensive strength, contingent on staying healthy, as a factor that could carry them. Despite doubts about starting pitching, noting Hunter Greene's significant expected regression and concerns about Brady Singer's fit in hitter-friendly Great American Ballpark, as well as bullpen weaknesses, he believes Cincinnati's lineup still positions them as viable contenders. He forecasts the Reds might become buyers at the trade deadline and strongly recommends this long-shot division future instead of more evenly priced win totals.

Ron Romanelli sees sneaky upside for the Washington Nationals, selecting them as a potential surprise team similar to the Royals' playoff run in 2024. He cites an improved, young lineup along with stronger-than-expected starting pitching and a more competitive bullpen as important factors. Even though he doesn't foresee playoff qualification due to a stacked NL East with strong Braves, Phillies, and Mets sides, he feels confident the Nationals' team upgrades and softer schedule versus weaker central and western opponents will enable them to comfortably exceed their projected win total.

Ron Romanelli argues the New York Mets' lofty win total of roughly 91 is unjustified despite adding superstar Juan Soto. He spotlighted significant rotation concerns: injuries to frontline starters Sean Manaea and Frankie Montas severely diminish pitching depth and overall rotation quality. While Soto provides an offensive boost, Romanelli strongly believes the rotation issues constitute too big a risk, especially in a division as competitive as the NL East. He advises bettors to confidently take the Mets' win total under, pointing to inflated expectations misaligned from their actual pitching situation.

Ron Romanelli identifies clear value on the Athletics' win total over 72.5, believing them far superior compared to the Angels, who share the same total. He highlights Oakland's stronger rotation featuring Luis Severino and Jeffrey Springs, along with promising stability from pitchers Bido, JP Sears, and Estes who now benefit from suitable backend roles rather than the top-heavy responsibility they carried previously. The Athletics' underrated lineup led by Brent Rooker, Lawrence Butler, J.J. Bleday, and Shea Langeliers significantly surpasses the Angels' depth, especially with uncertainties around Mike Trout's health. Given these advantages, Romanelli confidently takes the Athletics to exceed expectations.

Ron Romanelli believes the Minnesota Twins are undervalued as AL Central favorites at +200 odds. He emphasizes Minnesota's strong pitching depth, including an elite bullpen and a formidable rotation anchored by a three-headed monster of Lopez, Joe Ryan, and Bailey Ober. Chris Paddock also impressed in spring training with improved control. Romanelli asserts that a healthy offensive core—highlighted by stars Carlos Correa and Byron Buxton—could propel the Twins toward division prominence. Given their balanced and deep pitching staff and high potential offensive ceiling, he recommends Minnesota as a smart preseason bet to claim the division title.

Ron Romanelli is fading the Baltimore Orioles in 2025, arguing that their win total of 87.5 is inflated after a 99-win season. Losing ace pitcher Corbin Burnes and starter John Means creates too big a void, leaving Zach Eflin as a questionable rotation leader along with uncertainties around imports Charlie Morton (aging) and Sugano (making his MLB debut). Losing Anthony Santander's power bat is also detrimental, despite the Tyler O'Neill addition. Romanelli believes the combination of these factors and increased competition within the AL East (improved Blue Jays, still-strong Yankees and Red Sox) will prevent Baltimore from hitting their elevated win total.

Ron Romanelli sees the Toronto Blue Jays significantly improving from their mediocre 74-win campaign in 2024, emphasizing regression in one-run games (they were 19-30 in tight contests last year) primarily caused by bullpen struggles. Romanelli points out a notable bullpen rebound is likely due to established relievers with strong track records. He anticipates Kevin Gausman returning closer to his earlier form (though not Cy Young caliber). Offensively, Toronto finished last season strong and added Anthony Santander, a major power bat who provides critical lineup protection for Vladimir Guerrero Jr., and Andrus Jimenez, whose strong contact rate and elite defense add crucial stability. Given these improvements, Romanelli predicts confidently that Toronto exceeds their win total of 78.5.

Dana Lane is confident Paul Skenes will put up a strong outing for the Pittsburgh Pirates against the Washington Nationals, emphasizing Skenes will be very mad and focused following a rare poor performance in his previous appearance. Despite his current ERA of 3.44 being higher than usual, Dana expects Skenes to get back on track effectively against a weak Nationals lineup.

Dana Lane is backing Tanner Houck and the Boston Red Sox in their matchup against the Tampa Bay Rays. Houck is coming off a strong start where he allowed only one earned run over 6.2 innings against the Rangers and will face a Rays lineup that struggles to produce timely hits, despite getting runners on base. Lane notes Boston has demonstrated their capability to produce runs and key hits consistently throughout the season, contrasting Tampa’s 21st-ranked offense, which averages only 3.79 runs per game. Given Tampa's offensive struggles, Lane believes Boston's consistent timely hitting gives them a significant advantage, recommending a bet on Boston at even money or possibly at plus odds later on.

Eric Pathi strongly recommends taking the Rockies plus one and a half runs at attractive odds of +145 against the heavily favored Dodgers, who are sitting at -325 moneyline. Pathi highlights unusual market value, noting that it has been rare lately to see the team receiving the run-and-a-half to also have such favorable juice at plus-money, indicating a major betting market imbalance and opportunity. He stresses avoiding being stuck taking high-priced chalk in baseball betting, implying market value lies strongly with the Rockies in this matchup.

Kosty Safir recommends betting the Toronto Blue Jays at home against the Atlanta Braves, highlighting Toronto's strong home performance (five home wins already) compared to Atlanta's struggles on the road (only one road win so far). Safir emphasizes a distinct pitching advantage for Toronto. Braves starter Grant Holmes has struggled badly in his first two appearances this year and matches up poorly against Toronto's hitters, who tend to perform strongly against right-handed pitchers (hitting .259 and averaging 3.5 runs per game against righties despite slightly below their overall rate). On the other side, Toronto starter Easton Lucas has impressed in his transition from reliever to starter, posting strong five-inning performances already this season against both the Nationals and Red Sox. Given Atlanta's serious batting woes versus left-handed pitching (.183 average and averaging just 2.5 runs per game), Safir expects Toronto to capitalize on this mismatch.

Brad Francis advised betting the Braves money line against the Rays, primarily due to Tampa Bay's struggles, having lost their last six straight games when listed as the underdog versus National League opponents. Francis also noted Chris Sale starting for the Braves as further rationale that the Braves would likely secure a victory.

Eric Pathi recommended taking the Cubs plus one and a half runs at plus money or even after their likely victory over the Dodgers on April 12th. Pathi emphasized an established betting system favoring underdogs coming off significant upset victories when facing the same opponent in immediate subsequent matchups. He highlighted the inherent betting value in grabbing more than a run on the underdog without laying juice, citing it as the most advantageous wager type in MLB betting. Specifically, he suggests betting the Cubs as an underdog against Dodgers pitcher Tyler Glasnow in their game on April 13th, assuming the Cubs maintain their current 7-0 lead in the bottom of the seventh inning.

Brad Francis recommended betting on the Tigers money line, pointing to Detroit’s current five-game winning streak against AL Central teams and their success in taking the first two games of this series versus the Twins. Francis firmly believes that the Twins are an overrated team and that the Tigers are undervalued, calling the Tigers the best team in the division with potential to remain profitable throughout the season.

Brad Francis suggested a bet on the Mets money line against the Athletics, despite slightly steep odds at -148. He based this recommendation on the Mets' recent reliability in bounce-back spots, having won four consecutive times following a loss. He confidently expects this positive trend to continue.

Brad Francis recommended betting on the Royals money line against the Guardians, mainly due to starting pitcher Cole Ragans. Despite losing the first two games of the series, Francis expressed confidence in Ragans, whom he called one of the league's premier pitchers. He also noted the Royals' excellent recent performance as favorites, winning seven consecutive games in that spot.

Brad Francis recommended betting the Padres run line (-1.5) over the Rockies, citing the Padres' strong record of covering the run line successfully in seven consecutive home games at Petco Park. He emphasized the Rockies' struggles, calling them outright a poor team, and expects a big margin Padres win.

Chris Ruffolo likes Yordan Alvarez to hit a home run against Tyler Anderson and highlighted Alvarez's outstanding career success against Anderson, batting seven-for-nineteen including five extra-base hits and three home runs. Anderson typically finishes seasons with ERAs hovering around high four or low five, making him prone to power bats like Alvarez. Even though Alvarez is off to a slower start, Ruffolo expects this matchup to ignite a breakout and sees strong value at +310 odds.

Eric Pathi recommended backing the Los Angeles Angels as underdogs (+40 cents) against the Astros, citing their strong early-season track record as underdogs. The Angels currently hold a profitable record this season at five wins in eight games when listed as underdogs, along with a positive 2-1 record as favorites. He emphasized continuing this favorable betting trend, highlighting the consistent value they've provided early in the year when priced as underdogs.

Chris Ruffolo highlighted pitcher Corbin Burnes' difficulties last season against his former team, the Brewers, where he allowed three runs (two earned) and six hits through five innings, including a lead-off home run and multiple walks. Ruffolo emphasized that many Brewers hitters played alongside Burnes before he moved to Arizona, giving the lineup a significant familiarity advantage. Furthermore, Milwaukee's recent performances against right-handed pitching—ranking just outside the top five in isolated power and OPS, with a strong .258 batting average—reinforce Burnes' vulnerability. Ruffolo expects the Brewers to have similar offensive success against Burnes during this start, guiding bettors toward taking Milwaukee at plus-runs and the moneyline.

Chris Ruffolo shows confidence in Brewers starter Chad Patrick, who impressed in his first two starts this season, posting a sub-1 ERA with only one run allowed over ten innings and accruing nine strikeouts. Patrick effectively handled Cincinnati and Kansas City at home and now will take his hot arm into a tougher matchup against the Diamondbacks at Chase Field. Although Arizona has been successful against right-handers, Ruffolo expects the Brewers' bullpen to positively regress and support Patrick, positioning Milwaukee to offer strong betting value. He advises backing the Brewers at plus-runs and taking some action on their moneyline as well.

Chris Ruffolo pointed out that despite early-season struggles inflating bullpen statistics, Milwaukee's bullpen remains one of the more talented groups in the league from a roster and talent perspective. He highlighted recent improved performances, particularly in series against the Rockies and the back end of the Cincinnati series. Ruffolo expects continued positive regression as the bullpen recovers from inflated ERA numbers, particularly due to statistics lingering from a rough early-season matchup with the Yankees. This supports his view that the Brewers hold good value in this matchup versus Arizona, ultimately recommending betting Milwaukee at +1.5 runs and also placing a smaller amount on their moneyline.

Chris Ruffolo calls Nolan Arenado a great long-shot bet to homer at +1000 odds against Aaron Nola. Ruffolo points out that Nola is consistently prone to giving up home runs, evidenced by four homers allowed across two starts versus the Cardinals last season. Arenado's lone hit off Nola last year was a home run, enhancing Arenado's value at these enticing odds.

Chris Ruffolo likes Kyle Schwarber at +425 odds to homer against Andre Pallante. Pallante has allowed a home run in each of his first two starts of the year, and Schwarber has historically performed well against him, going 3-for-6 lifetime with a double and a homer. Given Schwarber's consistent power threat in the Phillies lineup and Pallante's shaky start, Ruffolo identifies significant value in Schwarber's home run prop.

Chris Ruffolo likes backing Teoscar Hernandez at +330 odds to homer against Cubs pitcher Matthew Boyd. Hernandez is tearing apart left-handed pitching this season, going 8-for-17 with five extra-base hits, including three homers against southpaws. While Boyd has pitched solidly for Chicago, Hernandez's hot start versus lefties and track record makes him a valuable bet at the current price point.

Chris Ruffolo recommends betting Aaron Judge to hit a home run at +210 odds, identifying a favorable matchup against Giants pitcher Robbie Ray. Judge went 6-for-10 with three homers against the Giants last season, and specifically, he's 3-for-8 lifetime versus Robbie Ray with all three hits being home runs. This season, Ray has already surrendered three home runs in two starts. Ruffolo also highlights that Judge has excelled against left-handed pitching this year, hitting four of his six homers against lefties.

Millz Young strongly advises betting on Juan Soto to record at least one hit due to an impressive 80% success rate recently (4 of last 5 games). Emphasizing Soto's strong form, Millz suggests today could see Soto achieve one or even two homers, recommending an additional smaller wager for a homerun prop.

Millz Young sees Manny Machado as nearly automatic for at least one hit today, highlighting a 100% success rate (5 straight occurrences) recently. Due to his great recent form, Millz also recommends sprinkling a smaller wager on Machado hitting a home run.

Millz Young has Bobby Witt Jr. as a solid bet to get at least one hit, noting this prop has hit for him at an 80% rate recently. Millz also suggests adding a smaller wager (sprinkle) on Witt hitting a home run today due to favorable circumstances.

Millz Young sees Jacob deGrom as a strong over candidate for his strikeout prop (5.5). Despite a slow start this season, Millz believes this matchup will see deGrom return to form, anticipating him pitching deep into the seventh or eighth innings and comfortably surpassing seven strikeouts.

Eric Pathi recommends betting on the White Sox despite their recent struggles, clearly emphasizing his approach of betting without emotion. The White Sox have dropped eight straight games and are currently 2-10, yet Pathi insists on backing them again, pointing out the importance of disciplined, emotion-free wagering similar to trading financial markets. He stresses the value in playing streaks and advises betting on the White Sox at plus 50 cents as he believes this losing streak offers positive betting value.

Jay Briggs suggested betting a Nick Castellanos home run or multi-RBI prop today against Braves starter Schwellenbach. While less emphatic than his Harper prediction, Briggs included Castellanos—nicknamed 'Nikki two-bags'—as an interesting prop option. Castellanos has a promising matchup for power hitting today in Atlanta, according to Jay, particularly given the Braves' pitching struggles early this season.

Jay Briggs identified Bryce Harper as one of his favorite home run prop bets today against Atlanta. He noted Harper is particularly well-positioned against Braves starter Schwellenbach, whom he respects but expects to yield a home run opportunity. Briggs specifically labeled Harper's home run prop as a good option, also briefly mentioning it could turn into a multi-RBI scenario. Harper's favorable matchup and hitting conditions strongly support Briggs' home run prediction.

Jay Briggs strongly recommended taking the over for Jesus Luzardo's strikeout prop against the Atlanta Braves today. He emphasized Luzardo's stellar recent pitching performance, particularly a dominating outing against the Dodgers, which Jay dubbed 'the Monstars.' Atlanta has struggled at the plate and swung through plenty of pitches early this season, making it very likely they experience high strikeouts today against Luzardo, who has found success in generating swing-and-misses.

Jay Briggs said that the Philadelphia Phillies at plus-money represents excellent value today against the Atlanta Braves, who he believes are extremely overrated right now. He pointed to the Phillies' hot 8-3 start compared to Atlanta's poor start at 2-9, emphasizing the discrepancy in market perception. Briggs also favors Phillies starter Jesus Luzardo, who has started the season very strongly with a 2-0 record and a recent strong outing against arguably the league's best lineup, the Los Angeles Dodgers. Based on current form and value, he's confidently backing the Phillies at plus odds.