Dimon played Over 220.5 passing yards at +110 for Carson Wentz, reasoning that a likely negative game script will inflate volume. Wentz threw only 172 yards last week because Minnesota led 48-10 and he attempted just 20 passes; Dimon expects far more drop-backs against a Steelers defense that finished 25th against the pass in 2024 and sits 26th through three games this season. With Minnesota installed as a slight underdog and J.J. McCarthy still sidelined, Dimon projects Wentz to clear 35 attempts and eclipse the 220-yard threshold even in a Minnesota loss.

Dimon took +165 on DK Metcalf to find the end zone, highlighting growing chemistry with Aaron Rodgers after scores in Weeks 2 and 3. He concedes Minnesota’s secondary has been 'solid so far this year' but reminds readers it ranked 28th in 2025 and allowed 24 passing TDs. Dimon expects Rodgers to keep testing a unit that still sits in the bottom half of explosive-pass metrics, projecting enough red-zone volume for Metcalf to extend his scoring streak to three straight games.

Ricky Dimon grabbed the Steelers at +120, arguing that the neutral-site trip to Dublin magnifies Pittsburgh’s edge in quarterback and coaching experience. Aaron Rodgers and Mike Tomlin are 2-1 with their only loss coming to a Seahawks club Dimon calls 'respectable,' while Minnesota’s two wins required a late field goal against Chicago and a blowout of a Bengals roster missing several starters. With J.J. McCarthy sidelined, Carson Wentz gets the call for the Vikings, and Dimon notes Wentz has produced 'a very, very small' sample of recent success. He believes the Steelers’ more battle-tested core is built to handle the logistical quirks of an overseas game and expects them to 'take care of business' straight up.

Chris Farley sprinkled on Matthew Golden anytime TD at +250, noting the rookie played 47% of snaps in his debut but drew only two targets because Green Bay controlled the game. He expects a faster-paced, higher-scoring contest Thursday; if the Packers fall into a neutral or negative game script, Jordan Love should look Golden’s way more often. Farley highlighted that Josh Jacobs logged 20 touches while Love attempted just 22 passes versus Detroit, a usage split unlikely to repeat if Washington pushes the pace. More routes for Golden at home boosts the rookie’s touchdown equity at tasty odds.

Chris Farley grabbed Deebo Samuel anytime TD at +190, arguing Washington will have to manufacture offense through its versatile wideout because Green Bay’s front just stone-walled Detroit for 46 rushing yards on 22 attempts. With Austin Ekeler and rookie Jacory Croskey-Merritt facing a brick wall, Farley expects Scott Turner to scheme Samuel on jet motions and red-zone gadget plays. Samuel commanded a team-high nine targets and caught seven passes in Week 1, making him Washington’s most reliable scoring threat against a run-stuffing defense.

Chris Farley took Jordan Love over 226.5 passing yards, citing Matt LaFleur’s track record against Dan Quinn defenses (30, 31 and 48 points in three meetings). Love had 167 yards by halftime last week before game script stalled him at 188. Farley remains skeptical of Washington’s secondary and expects a more competitive game that keeps Love throwing. He referenced Love’s 2023 home splits—268.9 YPG average and a 251-yard median in victories—and noted that last year’s injuries muddied season-long stats. With Green Bay likely needing to match Jayden Daniels score-for-score, Farley projects 250-plus yards for Love.

Chris Farley faded Jacory Croskey-Merritt under 42.5 rushing yards. He expects Green Bay’s ferocious Micah Parsons-led pass rush to force Washington into more passing sets, reducing the rookie’s snaps because he is unproven in pass protection. Farley also warned of a crowded backfield with Chris Rodriguez potentially active and Austin Ekeler handling catch-up duties. He called Croskey-Merritt’s Week 1 line inflated: 82 yards came on 10 carries but 42 yards were on one run, leaving 9 totes for 40 yards. The same Packers defense just held David Montgomery to 2.3 YPC. In a likely shootout, Farley believes Ekeler fits the script better and sees limited rushing volume for Croskey-Merritt.

Chris Farley backed Washington +3.5 on Thursday night, arguing the market is underrating how well Jayden Daniels and the Commanders are playing. He pointed out that Daniels went 19-of-30 for 233 yards with 1 TD and 0 INT while adding 68 rushing yards behind a 220-yard team ground effort against the Giants’ vaunted front. Washington’s defense also held New York to 231 total yards and sacked Russell Wilson twice. Farley acknowledged Green Bay’s impressive 24-13 win over Detroit but noted the Packers eased off after leading 24-6 early in the fourth quarter. With the Commanders fresh off an NFC title-game run, he expects a back-and-forth battle and thinks the hook on a field-goal spread is valuable on a short week at Lambeau.

JutPicks grabbed Matthew Golden at +250 for an anytime score, noting that Green Bay’s Week 1 blowout limited Jordan Love to just 22 pass attempts while Josh Jacobs soaked up 20 touches. If Thursday’s 48.5-point total proves accurate and the Packers fall behind, the rookie’s 47% snap share from the opener should climb. Even on only two Week 1 targets, Golden saw valuable perimeter routes and figures to leapfrog veterans for red-zone fades in a pass-heavier game script. With Washington’s secondary surrendering multiple explosive plays to Arizona last week, JutPicks believes the athletic rookie is live for his first NFL touchdown.

JutPicks backed Deebo Samuel at +190 to find the paint on Thursday night. He pointed out that Green Bay’s front just held Detroit to 46 rushing yards on 22 attempts, making a traditional ground attack a tough sell for Washington. With Austin Ekeler banged up and only rookie Jacory Croskey-Merritt behind him, JutPicks expects Eric Bieniemy to dial up Samuel’s trademark jet-sweep and screen packages, especially inside the 20. The wideout commanded 9 targets and pulled in 7 receptions in Week 1, a clear sign the offense already funnels touches his way. Add in the game’s lofty 48.5 total and the implied need for creative short-yardage solutions, and Samuel’s hybrid usage profile becomes JutPicks’ favorite anytime TD angle.

Champion encouraged sprinkling Rickie Fowler at +17500, citing his long history of contending in Opens—runner-up at Hoylake 2014 and 6th at Portrush 2019. Fowler punched his 2025 Open ticket by finishing 7th at the Memorial and has four top-20 finishes in his last seven starts. While acknowledging Fowler’s inconsistency, Champion argues that volatility is baked into the price and that the 36-year-old’s all-around game still suits Portrush’s fast, windswept test.

Champion labeled Ryan Fox a value longshot at +9000. Fox’s best Open finish (16th) also came at Portrush in 2019 when he was outside the world top 100. Since then he has added two PGA Tour wins, a Dunhill Links title, and a runner-up at the Irish Open on another rugged coastal layout (Ballyliffin). Champion regards Fox as a "confirmed links lover" whose power fades are less penal in fast conditions, asserting his recent quiet Scottish Open should be forgiven at this juicy price.

Champion suggested Matt Fitzpatrick at +5500 after the Englishman’s 4th-place finish at the Scottish Open. Fitzpatrick pairs an elite short game with strong recent results—top-10s at the PGA Championship and Rocket Classic—indicating his spring slump is behind him. His best Open showing (20th) came at Portrush in 2019, and Champion thinks the firm Dunluce Course accentuates Fitzpatrick’s accuracy and creativity around greens, making +5500 a worthwhile stab.

Champion recommended Tyrrell Hatton at +3300, arguing his extensive links pedigree makes him undervalued. Hatton owns three Dunhill Links victories and finished 5th at Troon 2016 and 6th at Portrush 2019. He showed major-winning form with a 4th-place finish in last month’s US Open. Although he prepped on a tree-lined setup at LIV Andalucia, Champion expects the Englishman to adjust quickly to Portrush’s fast, undulating greens, calling this championship Hatton’s best shot at a major title.

Joe Champion advised betting Xander Schauffele at +2500 to successfully defend the Claret Jug. Champion highlighted that Schauffele topped the Scottish Open field in strokes-gained approach while finishing 8th, signaling his irons are dialed in. Despite missing three months earlier in the year with a rib injury, Schauffele has remained competitive in every 2025 major (8th Masters, 28th PGA, 12th US Open). His Open resume includes runner-up at Carnoustie 2018 and last year’s victory at Royal Troon. Champion believes firm, fast Portrush conditions reward Schauffele’s controlled iron play and sees little reason he should be longer than +2500 after last season’s major double.

Joe Champion advised bettors to fade Rory McIlroy after his confidence-sapping performance with the driver. McIlroy missed the cut at the Canadian Open by shooting +9 through two rounds and has slid in the betting yet still holds a shorter price than several in-form peers. Champion argued Oakmont’s brutal fairways punish any wavering off-the-tee game, making it difficult to justify McIlroy’s odds when his trademark weapon is misfiring. While acknowledging McIlroy’s ceiling, Champion believes the combination of poor recent form and a demanding layout makes him an easy pass this week.

Joe Champion suggested Keegan Bradley at +10000, noting the 2011 PGA champion has missed only one cut all season (The Masters) and followed that with an 8th at the PGA Championship and 7th at the Memorial. Bradley slots between Lowry and Straka in strokes gained tee-to-green on Tour and sits inside the top 20 in driving accuracy—an under-the-radar combo for Oakmont. Champion added that Bradley is publicly gunning to be a playing Ryder Cup captain in September, a motivational angle he believes could raise the veteran’s ceiling. Given the consistent ball-striking and major-championship temperament, Champion finds triple-digit odds too generous.

Joe Champion threw Harris English into his long-shot portfolio at +10000, citing a track record of grinding out results in the game’s toughest conditions. English finished 4th at Winged Foot (2020), 3rd at Torrey Pines (2021), and 8th at LACC (2023). He arrives with confidence after a runner-up at the PGA Championship and a 12th at the Memorial. Champion stressed that English’s patience, experienced course management, and proven ability to scramble from thick rough make him dangerous if Oakmont plays anywhere near the traditional USGA carnage. With triple-digit odds, Champion views English as a cheap ticket that could pay handsomely if the winning score creeps over par.

Joe Champion recommended Shane Lowry at +4500, reminding readers the Irishman led after 54 holes at Oakmont in 2016 before a Sunday 76 left him T2. Lowry enters ranking 2nd on Tour in strokes gained tee-to-green—trailing only Scheffler—and just fired four rounds in the 60s at the Canadian Open while flushing his irons. Champion believes Lowry’s combination of patience, short-game touch, and elite approach play sets up perfectly for Oakmont’s slick greens and cavernous bunkers. After a season of top-10 finishes without a trophy, Champion expects Lowry’s form to converge with a friendly course history, making him a live mid-tier outright.

Joe Champion labeled Sepp Straka a prime outright wager at +5000. The Austrian owns two 2025 victories—The American Express in January and the Truist Championship in Pennsylvania—and just finished third behind only Scottie Scheffler and Ben Griffin at the Memorial. Straka ranks 4th on the PGA Tour in strokes gained tee-to-green, giving him the precise ball-striking profile Oakmont rewards. Although he missed the cut at Valhalla’s PGA Championship, Champion noted Straka rebounded immediately and has proven major pedigree with a runner-up at the Open Championship and a 7th at the 2023 PGA. With Ryder Cup motivation and elite current form, Champion thinks the 31-year-old is more than capable of breaking through for his first major at 50-1.

Joe Champion said Ludvig Aberg is his best-bet to lift the trophy at Oakmont at +3500. Champion argued the Swede’s length and laser-straight driving are exactly what a 7,342-yard par-70 with brutal rough demands. Aberg’s tee-to-green numbers jumped off the page last season when he finished 2nd and 7th in two Masters starts and 12th at Pinehurst’s U.S. Open despite sporadic form elsewhere. He comes in off a 16th at the Memorial and a T13 in Canada where he closed 65-66 after spending Monday scouting Oakmont’s greens. Champion also pointed out that Aberg’s lone 2025 win came at Torrey Pines South—another U.S. Open venue—suggesting the 25-year-old’s ceiling spikes on demanding, long layouts. At more than double Jon Rahm’s odds, Champion believes the price already bakes in Aberg’s occasional inconsistency and presents the best value on the board.

Wilfinger grabbed the Padres -1.5 at +120, noting a decisive talent gap. Nick Pivetta has allowed only 39 hits in 56.1 innings and owns a microscopic 1.44 ERA at Petco Park; San Diego is 7-3 in his starts. Pittsburgh’s Mitch Keller gave up 4 runs on 8 hits to these same Padres earlier this year, and Wilfinger doubts the light-hitting Pirates can bail him out—their lineup ranks near the bottom of every major offensive metric. With Pivetta’s form plus San Diego’s potent offense, he projects another comfortable Padres win by multiple runs.

Caleb Wilfinger laid the -1.5 run line with the Mets at -148, arguing Colorado is a dream fade. The Rockies own MLB’s worst record away from Coors Field (3-25) and rank dead last in staff ERA (5.55) while surrendering a steady stream of home runs. Wilfinger trusts David Peterson’s recent form—2.79 ERA on the year and just 3 earned runs allowed over 13.2 innings against the Yankees and Dodgers—as a major class drop versus Colorado’s weak lineup. Given New York’s stronger lineup and bullpen edge, he expects the Mets to take a multi-run lead into the ninth and cash the run line.

Wilfinger played Under 7.5 (–115) in Mariners–Padres, citing an ideal pitching matchup and recent series trends. Seattle sends Bryan Woo (2.84 ERA, .225 xBA, microscopic 4.1% walk rate) while San Diego counters with Michael King, who has a 2.32 ERA and 56 strikeouts over 50.1 innings through nine starts. The first two games between these clubs both cashed unders, and Wilfinger highlighted Seattle’s offense slumping throughout the set and lacking familiarity with King’s arsenal. Given the Mariners’ identity as a staff-driven club and the Padres receiving ace-level production from King, he expects another low-scoring contest and would play the under down to 7.

Caleb Wilfinger laid the –1.5 run line with the Dodgers at –115, noting several matchup edges. He expects Tony Gonsolin to carry over momentum from his season-best outing against Arizona into Sunday’s finale. Wilfinger argued the Angels’ recent offensive surge is unsustainable and pointed to their bullpen’s 5.11 ERA as a late-inning liability. On the flip side, Los Angeles fields the far deeper lineup and now draws Yusei Kikuchi, whose inconsistencies should allow the Dodgers’ bats to do "real damage." Wilfinger believes the combination of a superior starter, elite offense, and shaky Angels relief corps sets up a classic bounce-back and cover on the run line, playable to –125.

Caleb Wilfinger laid the -120 moneyline with Boston, arguing that Garrett Crochet’s current 1.93 ERA and 1.50 ERA in May create a clear pitching edge over Chris Sale. Crochet has surrendered only two runs in his last 12 innings, while Atlanta’s offense has averaged fewer than four runs per game over the past week against weak Pirates and Nationals staffs. Conversely, the Braves are just 1-5 in Sale’s road starts this year. Wilfinger noted that Boston’s lineup has been producing despite a recent sweep by Detroit and expects that run support to continue at Fenway. With the better starter, home field, and an opponent in a mild offensive funk, he sees value up to -130.

Wilfinger recommended laying -1.5 runs with Arizona at -172 despite the juice, citing a massive mismatch on the mound and in the bullpen. Corbin Burnes owns a 2.95 ERA and has allowed just one earned run over his last 13 innings against the Mets and Dodgers. Colorado has yet to name a starter and drags MLB’s worst overall pitching ERA (5.73) and a homer-prone bullpen into Chase Field. With the Rockies widely regarded as the league’s weakest roster and Arizona’s offense primed to tee off, Wilfinger expects the Diamondbacks to carry a multi-run lead into the late innings and is comfortable playing the run line to -185.

Caleb Wilfinger recommended Atlanta on the moneyline at -145 (playable to -155) because the matchup heavily favors the Braves. Pittsburgh’s Bailey Falter owns a 5.06 ERA and just a 19.9% whiff rate and has been homer-prone, setting up the meat of Atlanta’s order for a bounce-back night. On the other side, the Pirate offense carries MLB’s second-worst slugging percentage against right-handed pitching and now faces Bryce Elder, who, while unspectacular, limits damage well enough when given run support. Wilfinger noted that ‘fading the Pirates has been profitable all season’ and expects the superior roster to open the series with a win.

Caleb Wilfinger said Detroit -1.5 is worth laying up to -125 because everything is pointing the Tigers’ way. Detroit owns the American League’s best record and a blistering 13-3 mark at Comerica Park. Tarik Skubal has been unhittable at home, giving up only 2 earned runs across 17.0 innings, while the lineup ranks 2nd in runs (208) and 3rd in hits (340). Texas, meanwhile, has nosedived over its last 15 games and sends struggling lefty Patrick Corbin plus a bullpen carrying a 4.03 ERA. Wilfinger framed the bet as a classic hot-vs-cold spot in which Detroit’s firepower and pitching edge justify laying the run and a half.

Dimon recommended Under 8 runs at -120 for Reds-Braves, citing a convergence of shaky lineups and hot starting pitching. Cincinnati has scored exactly two runs across its last three games and was just blanked and then held to a single run in Tuesday’s 10-inning loss. Atlanta is averaging only 2.5 runs over its past six contests. Grant Holmes has given the Braves length recently, going six strong versus the Dodgers with nine strikeouts and holding opponents to two runs or fewer in three of his last four outings (team 3-1 in that span). Hunter Greene brings ace-level form for the Reds: 4-2, 2.53 ERA, microscopic 0.82 WHIP, and a 55-to-8 K:BB ratio in 42.2 innings. With both offenses slumping and two in-form arms on the hill, Dimon expects a pitchers’ duel that stays comfortably under the posted total.

Ricky Dimon advised laying the -0.5 first-five-innings run line with the Yankees at -115 because Max Fried has been nothing short of absurd in pinstripes. Fried is 6-0 with a 1.01 ERA, 0.93 WHIP and a 24.2-inning scoreless streak, and New York is 7-0 in his starts, outscoring opponents 55-20. Dimon wants the bet limited to the first five frames to remove Devin Williams from the equation. San Diego counters with Dylan Cease, whose 5.61 ERA, 1.60 WHIP and inability to finish six innings (only once all season) make him a prime target. With Fried dealing and Cease scuffling, Dimon expects the Yankees to be in front by at least one run when the bullpens take over.

Josh Gayle advised betting the NRFI at -120 in Astros vs Brewers. He pointed out that Houston averages the fewest first-inning runs in MLB and is now without cleanup slugger Yordan Alvarez, further draining its top-of-the-order power. Milwaukee scores the third-fewest first-inning runs at home. On the mound, Hayden Wesneski has yielded just 1 run in the first inning across 5 starts, while Chad Patrick has surrendered only 1 run and 2 hits in the opening frame over 6 outings. Forecast models show neutral weather with no wind to aid hitters. Both clubs are 0-for-May in first-inning scoring, so Gayle expects six quick outs and recommends backing the NRFI.

Caleb Wilfinger laid ‑115 on the Royals ‑1.5 run line, citing a massive edge on the mound and at the plate. Cole Ragans owns a 2.45 xERA, .192 expected batting average, and 36% strikeout rate, numbers Wilfinger says signal positive regression after two shaky outings. The left-hander faces a White Sox offense he considers the worst in the AL. Conversely, Shane Smith’s 3.97 xERA, meager 21.9% chase rate, and 44.5% hard-hit rate indicate he’s been over-performing, setting the table for Kansas City’s bats that have helped the club win eight of its last ten. Wilfinger expects the Royals to stay hot and record their ninth victory in eleven games while covering the spread.

Caleb Wilfinger recommended betting the Dodgers first-five innings team total over 2.5 runs at ‑120. He pointed to Sandy Alcantara’s rough return from Tommy John surgery: an 8.38 ERA and 1.65 WHIP through six starts plus 20 earned runs, 21 hits, and 13 walks allowed in his last 16.1 innings. The Dodgers already crushed him on April 29 and own a batting average north of .300 with a .550 slugging percentage against the right-hander this season. With uncertainty around how Los Angeles will deploy its own pitching staff, Wilfinger prefers isolating the elite lineup and needs only three early runs to cash, a number he believes is well within reach given Alcantara’s current form.

Javan Shouey played Corbin Burnes under 5.5 strikeouts at -120 on DraftKings, acceptable to -135. He cited Burnes’ career-low 21.9% K-rate and a single-digit swinging-strike percentage through five starts with Arizona, noting hitters are making contact both in and out of the zone more than ever. The matchup does him no favors: the Mets strike out just 19.5% of the time versus right-handers (5th lowest) and only 17.7% at Citi Field. Over the last two weeks New York carries a 125 wRC+ against righties, and its active roster has a 1.011 OPS in 86 prior plate appearances against Burnes. Arizona’s rested bullpen means the club has no reason to push him if he struggles. Combining the opponent’s contact profile with Burnes’ diminished whiff stuff, Shouey preferred the under on his strikeout prop.

Javan Shouey bet Michael King to record over 6.5 strikeouts at -129 odds on Caesars, playable to -140. Shouey pointed out that San Francisco owns the 9th-highest K-rate versus righties overall (22.7%) and the 4th-worst mark on the road (26.7%). King’s strikeout production spikes at Petco Park: last season he punched out 109 batters in 78.2 home innings compared with just 92 Ks in 95 road frames. San Diego is giving him a long leash—he has topped 100 pitches twice this month, including a 110-pitch shutout of Colorado. He has logged 7+ strikeouts in 4 of his 5 April starts and in 14 of his last 20 home starts dating back to 2024. All of those factors led Shouey to back the over in Wednesday’s matchup with the Giants.

Caleb Wilfinger backed the NRFI at -120 (playable to -130) for Sunday Night Baseball between the Phillies and Cubs. He expects a scoreless first inning because Wrigley Field will be pitcher-friendly—mid-50s temperatures and a light 8 mph breeze. Wilfinger noted Cubs right-hander Jameson Taillon has righted the ship after his rough opener, surrendering only 8 earned runs across his last 22.1 innings and owns plenty of familiarity with the Philadelphia lineup. On the other side, Aaron Nola’s surface stats look ugly (6.43 ERA, 20 ER in 28 IP), but Wilfinger pointed to a 4.57 xERA, 3.44 xFIP and 24.6% strikeout rate as evidence of positive regression. With both pitchers poised for early success in cool conditions, Wilfinger sees value in betting no runs in the first inning.

Dimon recommended Milwaukee at –106 on the moneyline (Bet365), arguing that Jose Quintana’s reunion with the Cardinals should be painful for St. Louis. Quintana is 3-0 with a 0.96 ERA and 1.02 WHIP through his first three Brewers starts and has allowed only three runs in 14 innings against his former club since leaving in 2022. On the other side, St. Louis turns to Erik Fedde, and Milwaukee’s lineup owns him: Rhys Hoskins is 9-for-31 with three homers, William Contreras 7-for-11 with two homers, Christian Yelich 6-for-13 with two doubles, and both Sal Frelick and Joey Ortiz are 3-for-5. The Cardinals have dropped each of Fedde’s last four outings. Even after losing the first two games of the series, Dimon expects the Brewers to snap that skid and cash the ML ticket.

Ricky Dimon laid out a first-five-innings bet on the Yankees –0.5 at –130 (FanDuel). His case revolves around new ace Max Fried, who is 4-0 with a 1.42 ERA and has surrendered just two earned runs in his last 21.1 innings. Dimon noted Toronto’s offense is ice-cold, scoring one run or fewer in three of its last four games and failing to top four runs in eight straight. Kevin Gausman starts for the Jays, and that plays directly into New York’s strengths: Aaron Judge owns a 13-for-39, 6-HR lifetime line against Gausman, while Paul Goldschmidt is 7-for-12 with a homer. Dimon prefers the F5 run line to the full-game money line because it removes the Yankees’ shaky bullpen (closer Devin Williams has struggled) from the equation, expecting Fried to stake New York to a lead by the midway point.

Caleb Wilfinger advised taking the Reds moneyline at -130 (playable to -135) in their trip to Coors Field. He cited left-hander Andrew Abbott’s hot start—2-0 with only four hits and two earned runs allowed over 11 innings—as a major edge over a Colorado offense sitting dead last in the NL with a .213 average and .632 OPS. Meanwhile, the Rockies own MLB’s worst record (4-20) and have lost 11 of 12. Projected starter Kyle Freeland carries a 4.85 ERA, .276 expected batting average against, and a 41.4% hard-hit rate, plus he’s dealing with a blister after surrendering 10 earned runs in his previous two outings. Wilfinger doubts the Rockies will supply Freeland much run support and expects Cincinnati’s lineup to scratch out multiple runs in hitter-friendly Denver, making the Reds a short favorite worth backing.

Caleb Wilfinger recommended betting Under 7 runs (-110, playable to -120) in Friday’s Pirates-Dodgers clash, calling it a classic pitchers’ duel. He highlighted Paul Skenes’ 2.87 ERA across five starts and even sturdier underlying numbers—a 2.06 xERA, 3.4% walk rate, .237 xwOBA, and 56.6% ground-ball clip that all sit in the top-10 percent of MLB. Skenes has yielded only 10 earned runs this year and has already stifled L.A. in limited exposure. On the other side, Yoshinobu Yamamoto owns a microscopic 0.93 ERA with a 35.2% strikeout rate, 63.5% ground-ball rate, and just three earned runs allowed in 29 innings. Wilfinger argued the Pirates’ light-hitting lineup won’t crack Yamamoto, while Skenes should neutralize a Dodgers offense that hasn’t solved him yet. With two Cy Young frontrunners on the mound and both inducing grounders at elite clips, he expects a low-scoring game that stays below the posted total.

Caleb Wilfinger backed the Cubs moneyline at -105, arguing Los Angeles is walking into a perfect storm after Tuesday’s extra‑inning collapse. The Dodgers burned six relievers—including both high‑leverage arms—and will now attempt a full bullpen game. Chicago, by contrast, got more length from its starter and brings a far fresher pen into Wednesday’s matchup. Wilfinger highlighted lefty Matthew Boyd’s quietly dominant start to 2025 (2.02 ERA, 3.33 xERA, 2.29 xBA, top‑9% hard‑hit rate) and noted that the Cubs’ offense ranks top‑5 in batting average, slugging, runs, and OPS. With Boyd expected to keep the champs in check and Chicago’s bats poised to pounce on a pieced‑together Dodger staff, Wilfinger sees value on the Cubs to clinch the series at Wrigley.

Wilfinger’s second best bet targets the Phillies First‑5 innings moneyline at -125 behind Zack Wheeler. He pointed to Wheeler’s elite underlying metrics—2.32 xERA, .197 xBA, top‑8% strikeout rate—and his long history of success versus the division rival Mets. Expecting positive regression for the perennial Cy Young candidate, Wilfinger projects a shutdown start in spacious Citi Field. On the flip side, lefty David Peterson has been serviceable (8 ER in 22 IP) but faces a Philadelphia lineup that owns him: Bryce Harper, Nick Castellanos, and Alec Bohm all carry strong career splits, and even Edmundo Sosa has produced in a small sample. By isolating the first five frames, Wilfinger removes bullpen volatility and banks on Philly’s bats giving Wheeler an early cushion, accepting a push if tied.

Ricky Dimon laid the -125 on Boston’s moneyline, arguing that the Patriots Day atmosphere at Fenway plus an extreme talent gap makes the Red Sox a bargain. Chicago is 5‑16 overall and a brutal 1‑8 on the road after finishing dead last a year ago. Walker Buehler, who has surrendered only 3 runs over his last 11.1 innings, gets the start for Boston and appears to be rounding into form after two shaky outings. Meanwhile rookie Jonathan Cannon is 0‑4 with a 4.42 ERA and the White Sox have dropped every one of his starts. Dimon expects Boston’s lineup to feast and views anything short of a comfortable home win as a major surprise.

Dimon grabbed Atlanta -0.5 on the first‑five‑innings line at -120, noting that the Braves’ 6‑2 home record and recent three‑game sweep of Minnesota signal the start of a turnaround. Rookie Spencer Schwellenbach brings a 2.55 ERA, 0.85 WHIP and 22:5 K:BB across 24.2 innings and is being mentioned as an early NL Cy Young dark horse. St. Louis is just 1‑9 on the road and hands the ball to Erick Fedde, whom Atlanta’s bats crush: Marcell Ozuna (7‑for‑12, 2 HR, 2 2B), Austin Riley (7‑for‑20, 2 2B), Michael Harris II (3‑for‑4, 2B) and Orlando Arcia (5 times on base in 7 PA) all own him historically. Because Atlanta’s bullpen is “somewhere between mediocre and bad,” Dimon prefers the F5 runline, which also offers better value than the full‑game moneyline.

Javan Shouey played Chad Patrick under 4.5 strikeouts at -142, viable to -150. Oakland has flipped last year’s profile, now ranking 4th in swing rate but dead‑last in pitches per plate appearance (3.61) and carrying just a 17.2% K‑rate vs right‑handed pitching over 641 plate appearances—the second‑largest sample in MLB. Eight straight right‑handed starters and 12 of the last 18 have stayed at four or fewer strikeouts against them, including Freddy Peralta’s five whiffs on a 6.5 line last night. Patrick posted only a 23% K‑rate in AA/AAA last year, projects around 20.5% as a rookie, and his early MLB whiff rate is an 8th‑percentile 17.2%. Hitters are making contact on his chase pitches 18.9% more often than league average, a problem against an Athletics lineup that ranks 12th in chase contact. Milwaukee has yet to let Patrick face more than 20 batters, and with a fresh bullpen Shouey expects another short leash, making five strikeouts an unlikely ceiling.

Javan Shouey backed Garrett Crochet to record the win at -120, playable to -130. He pointed out that Boston is a hefty -330 money‑line favorite and -180 to lead after five innings, creating a far better price on the pitcher‑win prop than laying the team lines. Chicago owns the league’s 28th‑ranked wOBA and a 56 wRC+ versus lefties, while Crochet just carved them up for 11 strikeouts over 7.1 innings of one‑run ball, flirting with a no‑hitter. Boston’s bullpen is rested and sits 2nd in FIP, increasing the likelihood they protect any lead. Weather at Fenway features low‑80s temps and a stiff breeze out to center, an overall boost for Boston’s bats against rookie Shane Smith, who is making his first quick‑turn rematch. Shouey acknowledged the traditional Fenway lefty risk and the back‑to‑back matchup factor, but believes the Red Sox offense’s home splits versus righties offset it, projecting Crochet to clear five innings with a lead that never disappears.

Dimon recommended laying the -1.5 run line with the Mets at +130 because Miles Mikolas looks like the perfect get‑right opponent for Juan Soto and company. Soto owns a .389 lifetime average with a homer and three RBIs off Mikolas, and the St. Louis right‑hander has stumbled to an 0‑2 record, 9.00 ERA, and 1.62 WHIP through 13 innings in 2025. New York counters with David Peterson, who sports a 2.70 ERA and 17 strikeouts in 16.2 innings. After the Mets opened the series with a 4‑1 win, Dimon expects their momentum—and Mikolas’s woes—to continue, making the run‑line price attractive.

Dimon played the Dodgers moneyline at -144 on the back of Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s elite early‑season form. The Japanese right‑hander is 2‑1 with a 1.23 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, and a 28:7 K:BB ratio over 22 innings, allowing just one earned run in his last 14 frames. Opposite him, Jacob deGrom is still shaking off rust from injury; his last two outings have produced seven earned runs, 11 hits (including four homers), and four walks in 11.2 innings. Dimon argued that deGrom’s current volatility is a poor match for a Dodgers lineup he calls “arguably the best in baseball,” making Los Angeles the side to back.

Ricky Dimon backed the Reds moneyline at +135, pointing to both a surging Cincinnati lineup and a favorable pitching matchup. The Reds racked up 29 hits and 18 runs in a three‑game set with Seattle earlier in the week, a sign their bats are heating up. Baltimore rookie Cole Povich owns a 5.20 ERA from 2024 and has opened 2025 with an ugly 1.80 WHIP; the Orioles have dropped his last two starts. Dimon noted that Cincinnati starter Andrew Abbott looked sharp in his season debut, limiting Pittsburgh to one run on two hits over five innings. With Abbott likely to receive ample run support against Povich, Dimon labeled the Reds a worthwhile underdog play.