At first glance –426 feels untouchable, but Data Skrive’s projection gives Arizona an 83% win probability (6-4 final), implying fair odds around –488 and creating a rare edge even on massive chalk. Corbin Burnes (2.95 ERA, 28% K-rate, 0.9 HR/9) draws a Rockies lineup that owns the worst road OPS in baseball (.593) and has already set a modern-era record by dropping 36 of its first 43 games. Colorado counters with debutant Carson Palmquist, a southpaw with just 23 AA innings and a career 4.25 minor-league walk rate. With the Rockies bullpen posting an 8.12 ERA over the last two weeks, the model simply cannot get the visitors above 2.9 projected runs. Burnes and the D-backs are playable in moneyline parlays or straight if books keep the line below –450.

Detroit opened –135 even though Jack Flaherty sits 1-5 with a 4.61 ERA. Data Skrive’s sim has the Tigers 55% to win (5-4 scoreline) because the underlying numbers tell a different story: Flaherty’s 3.22 xERA, 31% strikeout rate, and .280 expected wOBA allowed rank top-15 among qualified starters. Toronto counters with Bowden Francis, whose 5.40 ERA is backed up by a 6.01 xERA and a 46% hard-hit rate. The Tigers are 29-15 overall and 17-5 at Rogers Centre dating to 2023, while the Jays limp in at 21-22 with the league’s 27th-ranked offense versus right-hand pitching (86 wRC+). The model likes the Tigers to grind out another low-scoring win and recommends the moneyline up to –140.

The computer makes Cincinnati a slight favorite (6-5) even though sportsbooks hang the Reds at +105. That 4-5% edge is driven by park context and pitching volatility. Great American Ball Park boosts right-hand power by 14%, and the Reds’ lefty-mashing middle of the order faces Tanner Bibee, whose 3.80 ERA masks a concerning 1.6 HR/9 and sub-20% strikeout rate on the road. Brady Singer’s 4.97 ERA looks ugly, but his 14% swinging-strike rate and 50% ground-ball clip suggest positive regression. With the Guardians bullpen stretched after three straight high-leverage nights, Data Skrive flags Cincinnati as a live home dog and likes the full-game over 9 in the most hitter-friendly environment on the slate.

Data Skrive’s projection model spit out a 6-3 final in favor of the Cubs, giving Chicago roughly a 70% win probability that still beats the implied 69% odds of the current –225 moneyline. The model leans on three edges: a massive gap in overall team quality (Cubs 25-19 record, +46 run differential; White Sox 14-30, –72), Cade Horton’s strikeout-heavy profile that plays up in Wrigley’s cool May conditions, and a Cubs offense averaging 5.1 runs per game at home. Shane Smith’s shiny 2.08 ERA is countered by a 4.32 xERA and a White Sox bullpen that owns the worst WPA in baseball. Bettors looking to anchor parlays or same-game moneyline/under combos can comfortably ride the North Siders at this number.

The machine spits out Dodgers 6-4, making LA a manageable ‑200 play and flashing green on the Over 9.5. Rookie Matt Sauer (1.54 ERA) has yet to face a lineup twice; the model expects regression given a 4.01 xFIP and 9% walk rate. Oakland starter Osvaldo Bido owns a 4.75 ERA and allows a .290 average the third time through. Dodger Stadium’s night-time run environment is neutral, but both offenses are red-hot: LA leads MLB in OPS (.832) since May 1, and Oakland unexpectedly sits third in slugging (.464) over that span. With bullpens ranked 23rd (OAK) and 15th (LAD) in May ERA, the Over cashes 58% of simulations.

Data Skrive still leans Texas 4-3 even with Astros ace Hunter Brown sitting at a sparkling 6-1, 1.48 ERA. The projection values Jacob deGrom’s 34% strikeout rate and the Rangers’ top-10 offense against right-handed pitching (118 wRC+) over Houston’s league-average bats. Globe Life Field suppresses scoring, and both clubs feature rested high-leverage relievers, so the algorithm likes the Under 7.5 at 55% probability. Rangers ML ‑125 is graded a 57% edge, built on deGrom’s ability to work deep—he’s gone seven innings in four of five starts—and limit Houston’s struggling bottom half of the order (.601 OPS from spots 6-9).

The computer shows Toronto 5-4, recommending the Jays at ‑170 and Over 8 runs. Kevin Gausman’s strikeout stuff (10.5 K/9) is offset by a 1.36 HR/9 figure, while Rays starter Zack Littell brings a 4.40 ERA and 43% hard-hit rate. Both bullpens enter on short rest: Toronto used its top three relievers in consecutive games, and Tampa owns a 4.82 pen ERA in May. Rogers Centre has played 11% above league average for homers this season, and the model bakes in warm afternoon dome conditions to get the Over home 54% of the time. It gives Toronto a 63% chance to win outright.

Data Skrive’s forecast calls for a 5-4 Reds victory and makes Cincinnati a ‑220 favorite with a 69% win probability. Nick Martinez’s 1.9 BB/9 and 50% ground-ball rate should play well against a White Sox lineup that is dead last in ISO (.114). Chicago counters with Bryse Wilson (4.88 ERA, 1.46 WHIP) and an exhausted bullpen that logged 10 innings the previous two days. Even so, the Reds’ offense is middling, prompting the model to prefer Under 9 runs at a 56% clip. It expects Martinez to work into the sixth and hand a lead to a bullpen that owns a 3.28 ERA over its last 40 innings.

The model projects Minnesota 4-3 and makes the Twins a value play at +110 despite being road dogs. Chris Paddack’s 4.76 ERA is ugly, but his 24% strikeout rate and 3.63 xERA hint at better days. Baltimore counters with Tomoyuki Sugano (2.72 ERA), yet the Orioles have lost six of his last eight starts because of an anemic offense that ranks 28th in OPS (.657). With both lineups bottom-five in wRC+ against right-handed pitching this month, the computer assigns a 54% likelihood to the game staying Under the 9-run total and a 52% win probability to Minnesota—good enough for plus money.

Data Skrive’s projection engine spit out a 4-3 Braves win, enough edge to lay the steep ‑225 moneyline and play the total Under 8.5 runs. The model is leaning on the pitching mismatch: rookie AJ Smith-Shawver’s 2.76 ERA and 1.07 WHIP through his first six starts versus Trevor Williams’ 5.88 ERA and .292 opponent average. Atlanta’s pen has a 3.41 ERA over the last two weeks while Washington’s sits at 5.12, another reason the computer thinks run prevention favors the home side. With both clubs below .500 (Braves 21-22, Nats 18-26) but Atlanta carrying the clear arm advantage, the algorithm grades the Under at a 57% probability and the Braves ML at 65%.

The RealGM computer expects fireworks at loanDepot Park, projecting a 6-5 Dodgers win and circling the Over on the 9.5 run total. Los Angeles sends Tony Gonsolin (1-0, 4.50 ERA) to face Miami’s Cal Quantrill, who has been torched for an 8.10 ERA through six starts. With both bullpens ranking bottom-10 in xFIP and the roof likely open for a humid 80-degree South Florida evening, the model expects plenty of traffic on the bases. Bettors comfortable laying the steep –275 moneyline on L.A. can do so, but the article’s actionable angle is the Over given two vulnerable arms and elite Dodger bats that rank top-3 in wRC+ versus right-handed pitching.

Data Skrive’s algorithm calls for Detroit to leave Denver with a 6-4 victory, making the Tigers a playable –185 favorite against a Rockies club limping along at 6-28. Detroit rookie Jackson Jobe (2-0, 3.38 ERA) has flashed a 95-mph sinker and 31% whiff rate, while Colorado counters with Chase Dollander, who has been shelled for a 6.48 ERA and allows 1.9 HR/9—never ideal at altitude. Despite Jobe’s promise, Coors Field’s run environment pushes the model to the Over 9.5 runs as well. The Tigers’ offense ranks league-average but should get a boost from the park factor and Dollander’s command issues (11% walk rate). Bettors looking for a parlay piece can pair Detroit’s moneyline with the Over for plus-odds.

RealGM’s simulations hand Atlanta a 5-4 win 62% of the time, converting to fair odds of –163, yet the posted line sits at –210. While that leaves limited value on the moneyline, the model still leans Braves because their offense, sixth in hard-hit rate, faces rookie lefty Andrew Abbott (2-0, 2.84 ERA) who has benefited from a .241 BABIP. Chris Sale (1-3, 4.84 ERA) has been volatile, but his 28% strikeout rate hints at upside against a Reds lineup striking out 26% versus southpaws. The computer also recommends Over 8 runs given Truist Park’s friendly dimensions and two bullpens carrying ERAs north of 4.30.

Despite future Hall-of-Famer Justin Verlander taking the hill for San Francisco, Data Skrive’s model makes the Cubs a –155 moneyline play, projecting a 5-4 Chicago victory and endorsing the Over 8 runs at Wrigley. The computer notes the form gap between the starters: Colin Rea has quietly posted a 1.46 ERA across his first 24.2 innings, while Verlander has stumbled to an 0-2 record with a 4.62 ERA and a career-low 20% strikeout rate. Chicago’s 22-14 record is backed by a top-5 OBP, and the wind is forecast to blow out at 10-12 mph, boosting run-scoring expectations. Given the park factors and the starters’ current trends, the model sees value in backing the home favorite and the Over.

Data Skrive’s proprietary projection engine spit out a 6-5 final in favor of Washington, leading the article to recommend the Nationals at +105 on the moneyline over Cleveland. The model is essentially betting that Jake Irvin (2-1, 4.01 ERA) holds serve against Luis Ortiz (2-3, 4.78 ERA) and that Washington’s lineup—already averaging 4.7 runs per game at Nationals Park—can plate enough against a Guardians staff that has slipped to 17th in bullpen ERA. Cleveland owns the better overall record (20-14 to 16-19), but the computer views the matchup as close to a coin flip and sees value in the home dog. It also leans Over 9 runs, given the two middling starters and warm mid-afternoon weather projected in D.C.

Data Skrive forecasts a 6-5 Seattle win, playing Mariners ‑115 and Over 9. Bryce Miller’s splitter has been volatile (1.7 HR/9) and Luis Severino’s 10.8% walk rate keeps traffic on the bases, a recipe the model thinks inflates scoring in homer-friendly Sutter Health Park. Oakland’s bullpen has the league’s worst left-on-base percentage (64%), while Seattle’s deep lineup ranks fourth in OPS versus right-handed pitching. Add in a 12-mph wind out to left-center, and the computer likes the M’s to outslug the A’s in a track-meet.

The sim lands on Arizona 5-4 with value on D-backs ‑105 and Under 9.5. Griffin Canning has been lights-out (2.61 ERA) but Chase Field suppresses his elite curveball spin, and his 46% fly-ball rate can get him in trouble in a hitter’s park. Ryne Nelson’s bloated 5.82 ERA masks a 3.98 xFIP and 51% ground-ball rate, traits that play nicely against a Mets lineup that ranks 25th in hard-hit percentage on grounders. Both clubs boast top-7 bullpens in K-BB percentage, giving the under additional cushion.

Data Skrive projects Cardinals 6-5, recommending STL ‑145 and Over 8.5. Miles Mikolas sports a 3.02 ERA at home versus 6.71 on the road, and he’ll face a Pirates lineup that sits 29th in ISO against righties. Carmen Mlodzinski’s 6.58 ERA and .397 wOBA allowed to left-handed hitters sets up well for power bats Nolan Gorman and Lars Nootbaar. Both bullpens are bottom-10 in strand rate, so the model expects late fireworks to push the combined score past the posted total.

The algorithm sees Cubs 5-4 and advises Cubs ‑150 plus Over 7.5. Matthew Boyd’s new splitter has produced a 32% whiff rate and a 2.70 ERA through six starts, while Landen Roupp’s 5.10 ERA is supported by an xERA north of six thanks to a 12% barrel rate. Wind is forecasted at 10-12 mph out to right at Wrigley, juicing run expectation. Chicago’s bullpen (2.98 ERA) should protect a late lead against a Giants pen that owns the fifth-worst HR/9 in MLB.

Royals ‑235 and Under 8 is the recommended combo after a 4-3 projection. Cole Ragans’ 31% strikeout rate draws a Chicago White Sox lineup that owns the worst OBP in baseball (.276). Rookie Shane Smith has been sharp (2.23 ERA) but faces a KC club that just set a franchise record with seven homers Saturday and ranks third in hard-hit percentage since April 20. The under still grades out because Kauffman Stadium kills opposite-field power and both starters are expected to work deep, limiting bullpen volatility.

Data Skrive’s sim calls it Brewers 5-4 and plays Milwaukee ‑115 plus Over 8. The model fades Ronel Blanco’s 10.5% walk rate inside the homer-friendly American Family Field, forecasting extra traffic for a top-10 Brewers lineup in wRC+. Tobias Myers’ 5.14 ERA looks scary, but his 3.71 xERA says positive regression is coming. Milwaukee’s ground-ball heavy staff matches well against Houston’s 28th-ranked slugging percentage on grounders. Add in a taxed Astros bullpen that coughed up seven runs Sunday, and the computer gives Crew backers the green light while expecting both offenses to clear the modest total.

The computer prints a 5-4 Atlanta victory and recommends Braves ‑155 and Under 8.5. Rookie AJ Smith-Shawver’s 3.12 FIP suggests his 4.26 ERA is due for positive regression, while Brady Singer’s road splits (4.28 ERA away from Kauffman) drag down Cincinnati’s outlook. Truist Park suppresses left-handed power, limiting the Reds’ main weapon. Atlanta’s bullpen (3.36 ERA) versus Cincinnati’s 4.71 ERA pen provides the decisive late-inning edge that pushes the Braves across while keeping the total in check.

Despite Nick Pivetta’s sparkling 1.78 ERA, the model still leans Yankees ‑150 and Under 8 with a 4-3 projected score. Carlos Rodon owns a 30.4% strikeout rate in the Bronx this season and draws a Padres lineup that strikes out at the sixth-highest clip vs lefties. Yankee Stadium’s run environment drops noticeably in 55-degree May night games, and both clubs carry top-10 bullpens by ERA. With two power pitchers and weather suppressing carry to right field, Data Skrive sees value in the favorite and the under.

Data Skrive projected Washington 6-5 and recommends Nationals ‑105 plus Over 9. The edge comes from a soft pitching matchup: Jake Irvin (4.01 ERA, but 3.58 xERA) faces Luis Ortiz (4.78 ERA, 1.43 WHIP) and a Guardians lineup that ranks just 24th in hard-hit rate. Washington’s bats have quietly posted a .756 OPS at home and should get a right-on-right boost from the short porch in left at Nationals Park. Both bullpens are running on fumes after a combined 19 relief innings over the weekend, so the model expects late scoring to push the total past nine while Washington’s contact-heavy offense steals the win.

Data Skrive’s projection model spit out a 6-5 final in favor of Los Angeles and immediately tagged two actionable angles: Dodgers ‑185 on the moneyline and Over 9.5 runs. The computer is essentially fading Sandy Alcantara’s ugly 8.31 ERA and 1.87 WHIP while trusting rookie Ben Casparius’ tidy 2.91 ERA and the league-leading Dodgers offense (23-11 record, 5.3 runs per game). Miami’s bullpen owns the third-worst xFIP in baseball, another reason the model expects run creation to keep climbing once Alcantara exits. With both starters averaging fewer than 5.2 innings per outing and LoanDepot Park’s retractable roof forecasted open in humid 80-degree weather, the algorithm is bracing for fireworks and a comfortable LA cover.

The simulation sees a comfortable 5-3 Giants win and pairs Giants –350 with the Under 7.5. Logan Webb (3-2, 2.83 ERA) sports a 55% ground-ball rate that plays perfectly at Oracle Park, while German Marquez drags in a 9.82 ERA and .356 opponent average amid velocity woes. Colorado’s league-worst 6-27 record and an anemic 63 road wRC+ further tilt the matchup. With San Francisco’s bullpen fresh after an off-day, the model expects the Rockies’ offense to stay quiet, making a run-line lean or parlaying with the Under viable angles.

Data Skrive’s computer spits out Cubs 5-4 and advises laying the modest –115 plus taking Over 7.5. Rookie left-hander Shota Imanaga (2.77 ERA, 1.05 WHIP) has limited hitters to a .208 average and profiles well against Milwaukee’s lefty-heavy order, while Chicago’s bats rank 5th in OPS vs right-handed pitching and draw Freddy Peralta, who has surrendered 9 earned in his last 11 frames. Chicago’s 21-13 start versus Milwaukee’s 16-18 mark, combined with a forecasted right-to-left breeze inside American Family Field, nudged the model toward the hotter club in a game where both offenses still scratch out runs.

The model boldly backs Seattle at +150 even though Jacob deGrom (2.73 ERA) takes the hill for Texas. It projects a 5-4 Mariners victory and the Under 8. Key factors include rookie Logan Evans’ solid 3.60 ERA, Seattle’s superior 20-12 record, and Texas’ beleaguered bullpen (4.78 ERA, bottom-10 in MLB). Globe Life Field has played neutral for offense in 2025, so limiting late scoring tilts the edge toward the deeper Seattle staff. All told, the simulation thinks deGrom’s premium price is overstated and makes Seattle a value underdog play.

Data Skrive’s projection model flashed value on Kansas City at +110, spitting out a 10-9 Royals win and advising the Over 9.5. The sim leans on the pitching mismatch: Michael Lorenzen (3-3, 3.48 ERA) has been perfectly serviceable while Baltimore trots out Kyle Gibson and his grotesque 22.09 ERA. The algorithm folds in each club’s form—Royals 18-16, Orioles 13-19—and a bullpen fatigue factor after Baltimore’s relief corps chewed up 14 innings over the last two days. With a warm afternoon forecast at Camden Yards, the computer expects run-scoring to spike and gives the hotter, better-rested Royals a legitimate shot to steal one at + odds.

The computer fires on Tigers -175, calling for a 6-5 win and an Over 8 ticket. Jack Flaherty’s 3.34 ERA leads a 21-12 Detroit club against Kyle Hendricks, who has limped to an 0-3, 6.65 ERA start for the 12-19 Angels. Comerica’s warmer evening temps boost run projections, but Detroit’s lineup depth makes them safe chalk.

Projected finish: Orioles 4-3. Tomoyuki Sugano’s 3.00 ERA and 3-1 record get the nod over Kris Bubic’s 2.25 despite Baltimore trailing KC in the standings. The model values Camden Yards dimensions and Baltimore’s superior walk rate. Recommendation is Orioles -110 and Under 8.5.

Algorithm projects Dodgers 5-4 and recommends LA -115. Rookie phenom Roki Sasaki (3.55 ERA) squares off with Spencer Schwellenbach (2.87), but the Dodgers’ 22-10 record and MLB-best wRC+ tilt the edge westward. Truist Park forecasts light winds, supporting the Under 8.5 directive.

Even with Jose Quintana’s spotless 4-0, 1.14 ERA start, the computer predicts Cubs 4-3 and advises taking Chicago -110. The Cubs’ 20-13 record and higher run-differential outweigh Jameson Taillon’s 4.01 ERA. Under 8.5 is a secondary lean given both clubs’ below-average hard-hit rates.

Seattle is forecast to win 5-4 and clear the 8.5 total. Luis Castillo’s 3.62 ERA faces Patrick Corbin’s surprising 3.79, but T-Mobile Park plus a superior 19-12 record keeps the Mariners the recommended side at -140. The model expects late-inning leverage from a top-3 bullpen to seal it.

Projected score: Reds 4-3. Nick Lodolo’s 2.25 ERA dwarfs Trevor Williams’ 5.70, and Cincinnati owns the bullpen advantage. At 18-15, the Reds lay -190 against a 14-19 Washington team. The park’s pitcher-friendly dimensions plus Lodolo’s strikeout rate lead the model to pair the moneyline with the Under 8.5.

Despite Aaron Nola’s 0-5 record and 5.40 ERA, the projection is Phillies 5-4 with a -125 ticket. The computer leans on Philadelphia’s 18-14 record and Citizens Bank Park’s power-suppressing weather. It also expects Brandon Pfaadt’s 2.78 ERA to backslide versus a top-5 lineup, making the Under 9.5 a companion play.

Computer says Red Sox 5-4, recommending Boston -115 and the under 9.5. Hunter Dobbins has opened his career 2-0 with a 2.45 ERA, while Minnesota’s Bailey Ober sports a 4.13 mark. Boston’s offense sits 4th in wRC+, and Fenway’s marine layer in early May supports the under call.

Projected final: A’s 6-5. Oakland gets the nod thanks to a 18-15 record and a better-than-advertised offense versus Miami’s 12-19 mark. Max Meyer has kept a 3.18 ERA, but the model expects regression, while Osvaldo Bido’s 4.31 ERA is backed by a bullpen that ranks top-10 in WAR. Moneyline odds weren’t listed, but the algorithm still prefers Oakland.

Prediction: Giants 6-4. Despite Jordan Hicks’ 6.12 ERA, the model loves San Francisco -275 because Colorado counters with Bradley Blalock, who has surrendered a 10.29 ERA in limited action. Add in the Rockies’ 6-26 record and Oracle Park’s pitcher-friendly dimensions, and the play is Giants moneyline and over 8 runs.

Computer score: Padres 5-4. Bailey Falter’s 5.93 ERA and Pittsburgh’s 12-21 record make San Diego the side despite Randy Vasquez owning only a 4.28 ERA. With the Padres sitting 20-11 and ranking top-5 in OPS, the model fires on the Friars’ moneyline even without posted odds.

Toronto is a -145 favorite in a projected 5-4 win. Kevin Gausman’s 4.50 ERA still grades better than Gavin Williams’ 5.14, and the Guardians bullpen has been stretched thin. The model also leans over 8 because both starters have mid-4 ERAs and each lineup sits top-10 in hard-hit rate.

Projected score: Mets 6-5. Laying -155 is supported by Tylor Megill’s 1.74 ERA and New York’s 22-11 record. Erick Fedde’s 4.68 ERA and the Cards’ 14-19 mark give the computer confidence the Mets offense can cash the moneyline and push the game over 8.5.

The computer likes Houston -250, projecting a 5-4 Astros victory. Hunter Brown owns a sparkling 4-1 record with a 1.22 ERA, a sharp contrast to White Sox right-hander Davis Martin’s 1-3 mark. Chicago is 9-23 overall, so the algorithm is content to eat the juice with the 16-15 Astros and play the total over 8 runs.

Data Skrive’s computer projection spit out Yankees 4-3 and recommended laying the -185 moneyline. The algorithm is willing to live with Clarke Schmidt’s 5.52 ERA because New York is 19-13, playing in the Bronx, and catches Tampa starter Zack Littell carrying a 1-5 record and 5.03 ERA. The model expects the Yankees’ stronger lineup and home park edge to overcome the mediocre pitching matchup while keeping the total under 9.5.

With Nick Pivetta (1.20 ERA) and Logan Webb (1.98 ERA) squaring off, Data Skrive’s simulations anticipate a pitcher’s duel that ends 4-3 in favor of San Diego. That result produces two actionable angles: Padres moneyline at +110 and an under 6.5 total. The model is effectively betting on Pivetta’s early-season strikeout surge (11.3 K/9) offsetting the Giants’ home-field edge while the Padres’ bullpen—top-5 in WAR to this point—closes the door late. Because the algorithm’s median run total is a full run below the market number, the under is flagged as an added edge.

Despite Garrett Crochet’s sparkling 1.95 ERA, the Data Skrive algorithm projects Toronto to sneak past Boston 4-3 and recommends taking the Jays at +125. The model expects Bowden Francis (3.58 ERA) to hold serve long enough for a Jays lineup that owns a higher season-long OBP than Boston to do damage against the Red Sox bullpen once Crochet exits. Because the simulated total lands at seven runs, the system also leans to the under 7.5, but the primary value signal is the Toronto moneyline at plus odds.

Data Skrive’s in-house projection engine spit out a 5-4 Minnesota victory and immediately tagged the Twins as a value moneyline play at +125. The model is essentially fading Cleveland starter Tanner Bibee’s sluggish 5.19 ERA and betting that Chris Paddack’s 6.45 ERA corrects toward career norms against an offense that ranks bottom-10 in wOBA versus right-handed pitching. With both clubs sitting right around .500 (Guardians 15-13, Twins 13-16), grabbing the live dog at plus odds is the recommendation, and the simulation also pushes the game over the listed total of 8 runs.

The algorithm calls for a 4-3 San Francisco win, advising Giants ‑145 and under 7.5. Landen Roupp (2-1, 4.09 ERA) has held hitters to a modest .301 xwOBA, while the visiting Brewers roll out Tobias Myers, who hasn’t allowed an earned run but will be making just his second MLB start. Oracle Park’s heavy sea-level air historically chops homers by 12%, reinforcing the model’s lean to the under. San Francisco’s 16-9 mark and deeper bullpen further tip the projection toward the home side.

Data Skrive’s projection has Washington prevailing 7-6 and pushes two bets: Nationals ‑115 and the over 8.5. Southpaw MacKenzie Gore (2-2, 3.41 ERA, 10.4 K/9) has quietly posted a 29% whiff rate, while Baltimore rookie Cade Povich (0-2, 6.38 ERA) carries a double-digit walk rate and has allowed a .553 slugging percentage to right-handers. Both bullpens rank bottom-10 in ERA, so the model anticipates late scoring surges on a mild night at Nationals Park where the wind is forecasted to aid left-center power alley.

Kansas City is a chunky ‑235 favorite but the model still grades them as value, projecting a 5-3 win with the under 8 runs. Lefty Cole Ragans (1-1, 3.58 ERA, 28.5% K-rate) draws a dream matchup against German Marquez, who has been shelled for an 8.27 ERA and a .328 opponent AVG through three starts. Colorado owns a league-worst 4-18 record and an anemic 70 wRC+ on the road, allowing the projection to fade the Rockies even in pitcher-friendly Kauffman Stadium, where run suppression pushes the total under.

The computer projects a 4-3 Seattle upset at Fenway and recommends two angles: Mariners moneyline at +145 and the under 8 runs. Garrett Crochet has dazzled for Boston (2-1, 1.13 ERA) but the model sees value in Bryan Woo’s own 2-1, 3.12 start and a Mariners bullpen that sits top-10 in xFIP. With both staffs dealing and cold April temps in Boston, the algorithm expects limited scoring and thinks the plus-odds on Seattle compensate for Crochet’s early-season hype.