Michael Leone tagged Xavier Worthy as a must-grab upside swing in the middle rounds. Kansas City has finished top-three in pass-rate over expectation every year with Patrick Mahomes, and Travis Kelce’s age-related decline creates room for two receivers to hit simultaneously. Leone noted that Worthy and Mahomes narrowly missed on several deep shots last season; connecting on even a couple would have pushed Worthy’s ADP significantly higher. With the market fixated on Rashee Rice’s off-field uncertainty, Leone is scooping up Worthy wherever he can, betting that a pass-centric Chiefs offense will unlock multiple spike-week receivers.

Colm Kelly cautioned that Terry McLaurin’s 2023 touchdown reel is packed with one-off, non-repeatable plays—contested catches where defenders fell down or a busted coverage against Dallas that turned into a long score. McLaurin has never consistently commanded elite target share, so losing those low-probability TDs would leave drafters holding a shaky weekly floor on a third- or fourth-round pick. Kelly believes that makes McLaurin one of the scariest sink-hole selections in season-long leagues, preferring to chase younger receivers with ascending usage profiles instead.

Michael Leone warned that Garrett Wilson could end up as a classic “small hit, small miss” pick in Round 3. With Justin Fields likely under center, Leone anticipates a run-leaning scheme reminiscent of DJ Moore’s 2023 Bears season that ran absurdly hot on efficiency. He doubts Wilson’s 25 % target share will translate into difference-making raw volume and called the ceiling "hard to get there" if the Jets throttle back passing to protect Fields. Given the third-round sticker price, Leone is staying underweight and allocating that capital to receivers in more pass-centric environments.

Michael Leone believes Mike Evans is a screaming value in Underdog’s half-PPR, touchdown-heavy environment. Despite posting 13 end-zone targets and leading the league at 0.33 TDs per target in 2023, Evans slips into the late third/early fourth round because the market over-penalizes his age. Leone emphasized that Underdog’s scoring perfectly suits Evans’ spike-week profile, creating an arbitrage spot on a receiver who has cleared 1,000 yards in ten straight seasons. Conversely, Evans loses leverage in full-PPR FFPC drafts, so Leone is loading up on him specifically in Underdog Best Ball rooms, where the scoring and ADP dynamics swing in Evans’ favor.

Michael Leone cautioned drafters on Kyren Williams even though he flashed league-winning weeks last year. Williams goes roughly half a round ahead of Breece Hall despite what Leone calls a fragile setup: minimal pass-catching floor (sub-6 % target share), two straight off-seasons of the Rams drafting running-back competition, and a fantasy profile built almost entirely on red-zone carries in an offense that must stay top-10 for him to repeat. Because so many of his touches are low-value interior runs, any slip in goal-line usage could torpedo his weekly viability. Leone is passing on Williams at current cost and prefers Hall in that pocket of drafts.

Michael Leone said Breece Hall is the exact archetype he loves to attack: a blue-chip prospect who already proved he can dominate and is now heavily discounted after an injury-marred, circumstance-driven slump. Hall’s current RB13–RB14 ADP represents what Leone views as a pure floor outcome. As a rookie Hall averaged 5.8 yards per touch and showed top-five receiving volume before tearing his ACL. With the Jets’ offensive line upgraded and Aaron Rodgers returning, Leone expects 18+ touches and league-winning dual-threat upside. He’s clicking Hall over similarly priced backs because, in his words, “the upside is just massive while the cost bakes in most of the risk.”

When Colm Kelly floated Adam Thielen as a late-round target, Michael Leone immediately agreed, saying Thielen fits the same safety-valve profile he likes in Romeo Doubs. Leone views Thielen as a reliable source of early-season points—exactly the kind of veteran who can "patch some early production" for Best Ball rosters built around rookies or upside bets that may start slowly. Because Thielen’s role in Carolina is secure and his FFPC price is cheap, Leone is happy to sprinkle him onto riskier builds to prevent early-week zeroes without sacrificing too much ceiling elsewhere.

Michael Leone called George Pickens’ move to Dallas an "absolute perfect fit" for fantasy purposes. Unlike his prior situation, Pickens will now play with a high-quality quarterback in a fast-paced, pass-friendly offense that operates in a dome for roughly half its games. While CeeDee Lamb will remain the clear alpha, Leone expects Pickens to carve out a healthy secondary target share and, more importantly, to become significantly more efficient and consistent because of the improved play calling and environment. Since the market is fixated on the volume he loses by not being his team’s No. 1 option, Leone intends to draft Pickens aggressively wherever his price is lower than last year’s.

Michael Leone warned that he is "worried about Cooper Kupp" despite Kupp fitting the broad uncertainty profile Leone usually targets. The core issues are a sharp downgrade from Matthew Stafford to Sam Darnold, an entirely new coaching environment, and the continued march of age-related decline after multiple lower-body injuries. Leone believes those factors create far more downside than the market is baking in at Kupp’s current price and therefore prefers to pass on him in Best Ball drafts where younger wideouts with clearer paths to efficiency are still available.

Michael Leone said he is "pretty high" on Stefon Diggs at the current FFPC cost even though the veteran is coming off an injury-marred season and is well past the typical wide-receiver peak. Leone conceded there are legitimate worries about Diggs’ age and recent health, yet he emphasized two upside levers the market is ignoring: (1) Diggs will face "absolutely no target competition" in New England and (2) he will be paired with a "young ascending quarterback" who can grow alongside him. Leone compared the situation to last year’s veteran running backs who switched teams and then smashed, arguing that drafters are once again over-penalizing uncertainty. He plans to be overweight on Diggs in Best Ball rooms, especially when his early rounds have already locked in safer production at other positions.

Michael Leone highlighted Romeo Doubs as his favorite safety-valve pick after Round 12. Doubs projects to run a full allotment of routes with Jordan Love and carry useful red-zone equity, giving best-ball drafters a consistent 8–12 point weekly range that prevents roster zeros. Leone specifically likes pairing Doubs with rookie-heavy builds—when early picks are tied up in uncertain archetypes, Doubs’ bankable playing time shores up advance-rate risk while still leaving room for multi-TD spike weeks in Green Bay’s ascending offense.

Michael Leone labeled Rashee Rice the rare mid-round receiver who offers both a relatively safe weekly floor and legitimate league-winning upside. Kansas City funneled 20% of Mahomes’ targets to Rice once he became a full-time player last year, and the depth chart still lacks proven competition. Leone expects a concentrated target share that protects drafters from a total bust while still leaving room for a 1,200-yard spike season if Rice claims the alpha role in the league’s most efficient passing offense.

Michael Leone said Tyreek Hill is actually a low-risk selection relative to his late-first ADP. Leone pointed to Hill’s league-leading target share and the Mike McDaniel–Tua Tagovailoa combo that has produced top-three offensive efficiency whenever Tua is healthy. Even if Hill loses a step or Miami regresses, the volume concentration makes it “almost impossible” for him to pay off worse than fifth-round value. Leone thinks drafters are overweighting the two injury-shortened seasons and the generic age-29 cliff narrative, leading to unnecessary fade-risk in best-ball and season-long contests.

Colm Kelly said MarShawn Lloyd is one of the few late-round rookie backs who does not need an injury to matter right away. Kelly reminded Kevin that Lloyd’s 2023 season disappeared for “a variety of reasons,” yet the coaching staff had been talking up a breakout before that setback and the entire offense projects to take a step forward this year. Because of those circumstances, Kelly expects Lloyd to claim standalone snaps immediately—something he is not projecting for fellow rookies Will Shipley or RJ Giddens. Grabbing Lloyd after that contingent-only tier, in Kelly’s view, gives the roster an extra source of usable RB points early in the Best Ball Mania V regular season while still preserving the normal rookie upside later in the year.

Colm Kelly justified spending a late pick on rookie Will Shipley even after loading up on other backs. Colm sees virtually zero stand-alone value while Saquon Barkley is healthy but emphasized that Shipley’s 4.39 speed and 76-catch college resume make him an instant three-down replacement if Barkley breaks down. The Eagles averaged 29.6 running-back PPR points per game last year and return the entire offensive line, so any multi-week Barkley absence would turn Shipley into a potential league-winner right when fantasy playoffs start. Colm admitted rookie-heavy backfields can leave early-season holes, yet he felt comfortable adding Shipley as RB6 because Jordan Mason and Chubba Hunter already provide short-term floor. The pick is a classic “nothing now, everything later” dice roll he loves in Best Ball Mania.

Referencing his own tight-end advanced-stats series, Kevin Szafraniec said Brenton Strange is one of his favorite last-round punts. Strange matched Evan Engram in yards per route (1.40) on limited snaps and posted a 76 th-percentile burst score coming out of Penn State, numbers that suggest he could step right into Jacksonville’s high-tempo passing attack if Engram ever misses time. Even without an injury, Kevin thinks the Jaguars’ 12-personnel wrinkles under new OC Press Taylor could push Strange toward a 45-target season, which is plenty when you grab him in Round 17/18 as your TE 3 behind an elite like George Kittle. Kevin said he would have jammed Strange even harder had they drafted Trevor Lawrence, but he still likes the low-cost attachment to an offense projected top-10 in pass attempts.

Kevin Szafraniec said he is still scooping up Quentin Johnston in the Round-13/14 pocket because the profile lines up perfectly for best-ball tournaments. Kevin is not convinced rookie Trey Harris will out-snap Johnston – at worst he sees a 50/50 split – and he flat-out dismissed early-camp blurbs that Mike Williams will start opposite Ladd McConkey. Johnston finished 2023 with a 1.79 yards-per-route mark over the final month and drew a target on 28 % of his routes during that span, numbers Kevin views as proof the former first-rounder finally acclimated. In Kevin’s projections Johnston needs only 80–85 targets to pop two or three WR1 weeks thanks to his 14-yard aDOT and 99th-percentile explosion score. That boom potential pairs cleanly with a Texans bring-back in Week 17, so Kevin gladly bypasses same-range options like Adam Thielen to chase Johnston’s ceiling.

When the draft room forced a Minnesota choice, Kevin Szafraniec took Jordan Mason over veteran Aaron Jones. Kevin thinks the Vikings’ $100-million investment in two interior linemen signals a commitment to inside-zone runs that fit Mason’s downhill style. He expects a near 50-50 workload, but Mason’s age and lower mileage give him the better odds of holding the high-value red-zone carries as the season grinds on. Kevin admitted that Jones is fun to watch but warned that a 30-year-old back coming off multiple hamstring tweaks is an easy fade at equal cost. In Kevin’s projections, Mason can finish as a top-24 RB even if the split never fully tilts, making him the sharper best-ball play.

Kevin Szafraniec called Zach Charbonnet one of his favorite zero-RB picks in Best Ball Mania V. He reminded Colm that Kenneth Walker has already missed five games in two seasons and routinely aggravates the coaching staff by trying to bounce runs. Kevin does not expect new OC Ryan Grubb to tolerate that forever, especially after hand-selecting Charbonnet for a more downhill scheme. Even in a healthy scenario, Kevin projected a 65/35 carry split that still gives Charbonnet 8-10 touches a week with full-series upside whenever Walker dings a hamstring. At a Round-10 price tag, Kevin believes the contingent value combined with a usable weekly floor makes Charbonnet a must-have piece for zero- and hero-RB builds.

Kevin Szafraniec leaned toward TreVeyon Henderson over RJ Harvey when the room forced a choice in the mid-6th. Kevin’s logic was strictly backfield competition. Henderson really has only Rhamondre Stevenson in his way, and Kevin is already projecting Stevenson for a limited role after two straight seasons of disappointing efficiency and a looming contract decision. By contrast, Harvey will have to share early-down work with J.K. Dobbins, and Kenneth Walker owners can fall back on Zach Charbonnet. Kevin pointed out that Henderson’s three-down profile (he caught 45 balls at Ohio State) mirrors what the Patriots once asked James White to do. If Henderson even takes 55-60% of the work, Kevin thinks he provides weekly spike potential that outweighs Harvey’s or Walker’s current committee outlooks at an identical price.

Colm Kelly targeted George Kittle if he slid to the middle of Round 4, calling it a perfect sweet spot in a non-TE-premium format. Kittle generally goes three picks later than their slot, so Colm framed him as a small ADP win that unlocks multiple construction paths: you secure elite tight-end production early enough to stop at two TEs, yet you avoided spending Rounds 2-3 capital that could have gone to wide receivers. Snagging him also opens a cheap San Francisco stack; Colm immediately queued Jauan Jennings and later-round 49ers options, noting that Week 17 correlation comes almost for free once Kittle is on the roster.

Kevin Szafraniec advised prioritizing Lamar Jackson (and Josh Allen) because 2024 draft rooms let you grab their key partners in the cheap seats. With Jackson, Zay Flowers sometimes slips and Kevin is fine layering in Rashod Bateman plus either Ravens tight end long after QB selection. That gives you an inexpensive, high-ceiling Baltimore stack without burning early-round capital on ancillary pieces. Allen functions as a nearly standalone bet, but Kevin sprinkles Khalil Shakir and late-dart receivers to round it out. The takeaway: paying up for an elite quarterback is viable in Best Ball Mania V because the associated stack cost is dramatically lower than it is for, say, Tua–Tyreek or Mahomes–Kelce.

Kevin Szafraniec said J.J. McCarthy is mis-priced in FFPC best-ball drafts and should be scooped up whenever he lasts past QB20. Szafraniec trusts Kevin O’Connell’s track record of coaxing efficiency out of every quarterback he’s touched—citing how the Vikings stayed afloat last year with Josh Dobbs, Jaren Hall and Nick Mullens after Kirk Cousins tore his Achilles and even made Sam Darnold look competent in camp. McCarthy lost his entire rookie season to injury, which Kevin believes is artificially suppressing his ADP, yet he still spent that year in meetings absorbing O’Connell’s scheme. Now he walks into a dome offense featuring Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, T.J. Hockenson and new back Aaron Jones, plus likely pass-heavy game scripts inside a shoot-out-prone NFC North. Kevin views McCarthy as a cheap Week-17 correlation play (Packers–Vikings) with legitimate top-12 seasonal upside and is comfortable pairing him with a veteran QB2 in Superflex or using him as a late QB3/4 in standard best-ball tournament builds.

Kevin Szafraniec advised largely passing on Brandon Aiyuk unless the price tumbles. Aiyuk must recover from last year’s shoulder injury that limited him to just 46 targets, and Kevin questioned whether the 49ers already regret the extension they "felt forced" to sign. He expects Jauan Jennings to remain the primary wideout and thinks rookie Ricky Pearsall could siphon early-season snaps while Aiyuk ramps up. At Aiyuk’s WR42 cost, Kevin prefers similarly priced break-outs like Jayden Reed and would rather spend on George Kittle or Brock Bowers shares in the same draft pocket. The uncertainty around Aiyuk’s health, contract politics, and target share makes him a "tough click" in best-ball builds that need bankable early points.

Kevin Szafraniec argued George Kittle is mis-priced, stating he "should be going at least two rounds earlier" in non-tight-end-premium formats. He believes drafters incorrectly lump Kittle into the middle tier, even though Kittle’s ceiling is closer to Brock Bowers and Trey McBride. With Brandon Aiyuk rehabbing, Kevin expects early-season targets to flow through Kittle, making him a bargain at current cost.

Kevin Szafraniec called Jauan Jennings the clear wideout to target in San Francisco and said he takes him every time over Waddle. Jennings earned a 25 % target share in his active games, erupted for 46.5 DK points in Week 3, and posted a 9.53 adjusted yards per attempt with Brock Purdy—an elite efficiency mark. With Brandon Aiyuk unlikely to play early and Deebo Samuel and Ricky Pearsall nursing injuries, Kevin anticipates Jennings’ role expanding beyond last year’s boom-or-bust profile (three WR1 weeks, one WR2 week). At his modest ADP, Jennings is Kevin’s favorite way to gain 49ers exposure in best-ball tournaments.

Colm Kelly endorsed Will Shipley as a final-round dart despite conceding the rookie offers little standalone value while Saquon Barkley is healthy. Barkley just helped the Eagles win a Super Bowl, so Colm expects the team to ride him early and often. Still, Shipley flashed enough in late-season mop-up duty to convince Colm the staff will trust him if Barkley misses time. On a roster that already invested heavily at wide receiver and secured early-season floor with veterans like Jordan Mason, Shipley’s contingent upside is exactly what Colm wants from his RB6.

Kevin Szafraniec flagged Brenton Strange as a Round-17/18 tight-end punt that pairs nicely with other Jaguars pieces. Citing his own advanced-stat study, Kevin noted Strange’s rookie efficiency metrics lined up surprisingly well with Evan Engram’s despite limited routes. He thinks Jacksonville will stay pass-heavy and that Strange could carve out red-zone work even if Engram holds the starting gig. Kevin is more willing to click Strange when he already has Trevor Lawrence or other Jags, but said the profile is strong enough to use him as a third tight end on any Kittle-anchored build that wants ceiling without burning early capital.

Kevin Szafraniec said Quentin Johnston is still worth scooping in the ugly WR13-14 range of Best Ball Mania drafts. Johnston’s 2023 finish left questions about whether he can hang on to the role he flashed down the stretch, and Szafraniec acknowledged rookie Trey Harris could force a split. Camp reports even have a recently-signed Mike Williams opening opposite Ladd McConkey—news Kevin flat-out does not buy. For him, Johnston’s value hinges on spike-week upside, not weekly start-sit reliability: two or three WR-1 caliber eruptions plus a handful of WR-2 lines would more than pay off his price. The pick also completes an inexpensive Chargers–Texans Week-17 bringback for drafters who already grabbed Houston pieces such as Nico Collins or C.J. Stroud earlier in the room.

Kevin Szafraniec is drafting Jordan Mason over Aaron Jones in the newly re-shaped Vikings backfield. He views the touch split as a true 50/50 but gives the edge to Mason thanks to fresh legs and Minnesota’s revamped interior offensive line, which he expects to create cleaner interior rushing lanes than the team had in 2023. Age-related decline and durability concerns for the 29-year-old Jones nudge Kevin toward Mason as the more sustainable play over 17 weeks of Best Ball Mania scoring.

Kevin Szafraniec called Zach Charbonnet one of his favorite Zero-RB darts in Best Ball Mania. He reminded listeners that Kenneth Walker has already missed significant time in two straight seasons and is working under a new offensive coordinator who may lose patience with Walker’s habit of bouncing runs. Charbonnet flashed workhorse usage when Walker sat last year, and Kevin believes a forced or merit-based timeshare is firmly in play. Even if Walker stays upright, Szafraniec projected Charbonnet for enough receiving and goal-line work to be usable in best-ball formats and sees league-winning upside if Walker’s durability issues crop up again.

Kevin Szafraniec explained why he’s mixing in elite quarterbacks like Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen when the draft hits a positional lull. Because neither QB requires early-round teammates, drafters can hammer best-player-available early and still build stacks cheaply on the back end—Flowers if he falls, Rashod Bateman, both Ravens tight ends for Lamar; Khalil Shakir or Dalton Kincaid for Allen. That setup preserves roster spots, avoids forced reaches, and locks in 25-plus point weekly ceilings at a moment in the draft where the skill-position pool gets flat.

Colm Kelly wanted to grab rookie WR Tett McMillan in Round 3 and circle back to George Kittle in early Round 4 because the pair gives you Week 17 49ers-Cardinals correlation without sacrificing ADP value. Kittle usually lasts three picks past their slot, making the double tap doable even on a 20-second clock. Kelly noted that because BBM is not TE premium, he prefers loading up on wideouts first, then adding an elite tight end once the WR pool flattens. Landing Kittle there unlocks multiple San Francisco bring-back options (e.g., Jauan Jennings, Ricky Pearsall) and keeps roster construction flexible the rest of the way.

Kevin Szafraniec said Nico Collins should be the priority when you pull the 1.11 in Best Ball Mania. He ranked Collins slightly ahead of Amon-Ra St. Brown and rookie Brian Thomas Jr. because Houston’s passing game projects to stay aggressive after finishing top-10 in early-down pass rate last year. Szafraniec acknowledged Collins’ dodgy durability—he has yet to log a full season—but argued the ceiling attached to C.J. Stroud’s offense outweighs that risk at the back of Round 1. Starting with Collins also opens an easy Texans build later with Tank Dell, Dalton Schultz or even a discounted Stroud if he slips past ADP.

Kevin Szafraniec placed C.J. Stroud in the exact same late-round tier as Jordan Love and advised drafters to scoop whichever signal-caller falls further in a given room. He thinks offseason ADP movement has swung too far the other way—both quarterbacks were priced higher last summer, produced solidly, and now have slid to a point where waiting at QB becomes a legitimate edge. Szafraniec believes Stroud (and Love) can jump multiple rounds in next year’s drafts once the market recalibrates to their true ceiling, so he is comfortable passing on earlier quarterback runs, banking the value, and locking in Stroud if he is the cheaper of the two when that tier comes up.

Kevin Szafraniec argued that Cade Stover is strictly a dynasty flyer right now and almost unplayable in 2024 redraft or best-ball formats. Stover quietly logged the ninth-most targets among NFL tight ends last season, yet he ranked a disastrous 130th in Fantasy Points Over Expectation. That combination of volume without efficiency signals a low weekly floor, and Kevin admitted he only sprinkles in the rookie as an absolute last-round emergency pick. The path to real fantasy relevance hinges on long-term development rather than immediate role, so Szafraniec is reserving most of his Stover exposure for dynasty leagues where patience can be rewarded, while steering clear in season-long and Best Ball Mania drafts that demand near-instant production.

Kevin Szafraniec expects C.J. Stroud to take a tangible efficiency leap under new offensive coordinator Nick Caley. Houston was already top-10 in pass rate and tied for fourth in pass plays per 60 minutes, but Stroud’s 8.0-yard average depth of target and bottom-half on-target percentage kept him from soaring in fantasy. Szafraniec noted that Caley’s background with the Rams could trim Stroud’s ADOT by a yard—Matthew Stafford sat around 7.0 last season—which should yield easier throws and more sustained drives. With an upgraded receiver room (Nico Collins, Christian Kirk, rookie Jaden Higgins) and the same pass-heavy philosophy, Kevin is drafting Stroud in the Jordan Love tier, betting that a modest efficiency bump turns last year’s QB15 type into a weekly top-10 option in Season-Long leagues and a stackable upside piece in Best Ball.

Kevin Szafraniec said he is perfectly happy clicking Nico Collins at the 1–2 turn even though the wideout has averaged only 12.4 games per season across his four-year career. Szafraniec conceded you should budget for a missed game or two, but the ceiling is too good to pass up: Collins ranked WR9 in points per game, WR14 in total Fantasy Points Over Expectation, and matched Jaden Reed’s elite 2.1 PPR points per opportunity. With Houston tied for fourth in the league at 37 pass plays per 60 minutes and still projecting as a top-10 pass-rate offense, Szafraniec views Collins as a weekly alpha who can win you leagues if he finally strings together 16–17 games. He recommends drafting Collins aggressively in Season-Long and Best Ball formats while making sure you have contingency depth for the inevitable absentee weeks.

Szafraniec warned that Romeo Doubs’ every-down role is masking serious efficiency concerns. Doubs mustered only a 7.5 Adjusted Yards-per-Attempt with Jordan Love last year – miles behind Reed’s 11.38 and Kraft’s 10.0 – and the Packers’ insistence on keeping him on the field has historically siphoned targets away from higher-upside teammates. With rookie "Golden" joining Reed atop the depth chart and expectations for a slightly more balanced attack, Kevin believes Doubs’ shallow-aDOT red-zone usage will be sporadic, leading to touchdown-or-bust fantasy weeks. He is actively fading Doubs at current ADP, preferring to allocate late-round exposure to Kraft or the incoming rookie wideout whose ceiling is higher.

Szafraniec called Tucker Kraft the most mis-priced pass catcher on the board, saying he could "completely obliterate ADP" and be drafted as a top-five tight end in 2025. Kraft ran 374 routes to Luke Musgrave’s 58 last season and earned 71 targets despite playing through a post-surgery return. In Rotoviz’s Advanced Stats Explorer, Kraft just posted one of the best tight-end tackle-evasion seasons ever recorded, confirming the George Kittle comps that followed him out of college workouts. His chemistry with Jordan Love shows up in a 10.0 AYA – nearly identical to Reed’s – and Szafraniec noted that if the volume merely inches up, the after-catch monster has league-winning upside. Because Kraft still goes in the "third cluster" of tight ends, Kevin is scooping him aggressively in tight-end-premium best-ball formats and sees him as the archetypal late-round swing who could jump 8–10 rounds in value by this time next year.

Kevin Szafraniec hammered home that Jaden Reed is the easy priority any time you are building Packers stacks. Using the Rotoviz Adjusted Yards-per-Attempt tool, Reed posted an absurd 11.38 AYA with Jordan Love last season – a threshold Szafraniec says is "crazy" because anything above eight is good and 10+ is elite. Reed finished WR4 in Fantasy Points Over Expectation and maintained 2.1 PPR points per opportunity, the same per-op mark shared by A.J. Brown, Ja’Marr Chase, and Justin Jefferson. Impressively, 20 of his 105 touches were designed runs, so those efficiency numbers are not propped up by cheap catches. With Dontayvion Wicks gone and rookie "Golden" (the new WR2) still unproven, Szafraniec expects Reed to sit atop the target totem pole even if Green Bay stays run-heavy early. He is drafting Reed in roughly 90 % of spots where their ADPs are back-to-back, often doubling down by also grabbing the rookie to maximize Week 17 correlation versus Baltimore. The takeaway: treat Reed as the ceiling play who doesn’t even need 30 % target share to pay off because his efficiency is already that good.

Szafraniec acknowledged that signing Josh Jacobs probably unlocked the real-life Packers offense by giving them a between-the-tackles sledgehammer, but he warned fantasy drafters not to chase Jacobs in the early second round. Jacobs has never been a consistent pass catcher in Aaron Jones’ old role and Green Bay leaned "too far into the run" last year when Love was banged up. With Malik Willis packages still lurking and the team expected to pass more in 2024, Szafraniec sees limited receiving volume and touchdown volatility capping Jacobs’ ceiling. At his current ADP he recommends pivoting to receivers or quarterbacks with higher weekly upside in Best Ball and redraft formats.

Kevin Szafraniec said Christian Watson is being written off because of last season’s injuries, but the underlying numbers remain electric. Watson still averaged 2.1 PPR points per opportunity, identical to his rookie year and on the same per-opportunity level as A.J. Brown, Ja’Marr Chase, and Justin Jefferson. With Jordan Love healthy, a top-five offensive line, and defenses now forced to respect new power back Josh Jacobs, Szafraniec expects fewer double teams and more high-value play-action looks for Watson. Because draft rooms remain focused on Detroit and Minnesota receivers, Szafraniec views Watson as an underpriced upside swing in both season-long and Best Ball Mania drafts, especially after reports that he is ahead of schedule in his injury recovery.

Colm Kelly urged listeners to tread carefully with Travis Etienne even when he falls to the ninth round. Kelly said Etienne’s production "has been on a slope the last couple of years" and argued that rookie back Tutton could start siphoning touches if Etienne’s early-season efficiency disappoints. Instead of paying Round-9 capital for a back who may end up in a committee, Kelly prefers grabbing higher-upside receivers or contingency backs available later. His takeaway: Etienne no longer provides the structural advantage drafters need at that price, making him a fade unless he slips well past current ADP.

Colm Kelly grabbed Troy Franklin in the 20th as a stack-correlated upside dart with earlier QB pick Bo Nix. Kelly said Franklin’s ADP has flat-lined because the market worries about Denver’s depth chart, but he believes camp news could rocket the rookie into the teens— especially if Joe Flacco earns early-season starts and pepper-throws the outside. Franklin’s 4.41 speed and 2.9 collegiate yards per route give him a unique ceiling that simply does not exist among the dusty veterans still on the board. The click also protects their Jerry Jeudy shares, letting any Broncos breakout funnel points into this roster no matter which receiver emerges.

Colm Kelly welcomed Cole Kmet’s 18-19th-round slide, saying the Bears tight end is the perfect TE4 in FFPC Best Ball. Because the format offers 1.5 PPR for tight ends and two flex spots, Kelly expects there will be weeks where managers start three or even four TEs. Grabbing Kmet after ADP gives his roster a reliable bye-week plug-in with real flex viability—Kmet finished 2023 with six double-digit fantasy weeks and has averaged 20.2% of Chicago’s targets since the middle of 2022. Colm added that taking Kmet now preserves structural freedom later; missing him would have forced them into desperation darts like Noah Fant. The falling ADP plus the FFPC scoring wrinkle makes Kmet “easy closing-line value” according to Kelly.

Conor O'Driscoll reminded listeners that Marvin Mims played only 47 % of Denver’s offensive snaps in Week 17 – the same week most best-ball managers remember him posting a splash score. O'Driscoll warned drafters not to let that single-game memory override the broader usage trend. He argued that if you are taking a late-round swing at a Broncos wideout, the cheaper rookie Troy Franklin can replicate Mims’ down-field role without costing you the premium that last year’s highlight baked into Mims’ ADP. In other words, bank the extra roster equity by passing on Mims unless he free-falls several spots past market.

Conor O'Driscoll endorsed Tyler Allgeier as a low-leverage depth add in the mid-teens, saying the Falcons’ No. 2 back supplies just enough weekly points to cover rookie RB volatility later in the season. Atlanta averaged 30.5 rush attempts per game in 2023, and Allgeier still logged 36% of the carries even after Bijan Robinson’s arrival. Conor argued that pairing Allgeier’s bankable 8–10 touches with several late-round rookies prevents the roster from "playing catch-up" during the first half of the year while retaining contingent-value upside if Bijan misses time.

Colm Kelly called rookie Ray Davis a "priority target" after landing him in the mid-13th round, noting the 9-round gap between Davis and James Cook (4.02). Cook has not settled his contract situation, and Kelly believes any training-camp holdout would spike Davis’ price into the 5th round overnight. Even without a Cook absence, Davis’ pass-pro chops and downhill style fit Buffalo’s short-yardage needs, giving him immediate flex utility in a roster that already leans on rookie backs. Kelly framed the pick as classic zero-RB leverage: standalone touches now with league-winning upside if the depth chart tilts.

Colm Kelly said Rhamondre Stevenson works perfectly as a discounted "bridge" back while their rookie duo (RJ Harvey plus another first-year RB) ramps up. Stevenson is slipping a full round below spring ADP and, unlike most backs in this pocket, projects for locked-in Week-1 volume as the clear early-down option in a New England offense that averaged 26.9 RB touches per game last year. Kelly admitted he is "not overly optimistic" about Stevenson's year-long ceiling but stressed that securing 12–15 opening-week touches lets drafters chase pure upside later without risking early zeros in FFPC Best Ball playoff pods.