Davis Mattek argued that Chris Godwin is a screaming value after slipping into the WR5/6 range. Tampa chose not to place him on PUP, waived depth option Trey Palmer, and expects Godwin back by Weeks 5-7. Mattek reminded listeners Godwin out-targeted Mike Evans whenever healthy last season, and Evans now enters another year of age-related decline. With the Buccaneers still gunning for a fifth straight NFC South crown, Mattek sees a clear route for Godwin to reclaim WR1 status down the stretch and believes drafters should snap him up any time he falls past pick 120.

Davis Mattek called Xavier Worthy the single most under-priced player in 2025 drafts, insisting the explosive Chiefs wideout should be going two rounds earlier—inside the top 24—especially on half-PPR sites. Mattek pointed to Worthy’s perfect stylistic fit with Patrick Mahomes, his multi-use role (deep routes, end-arounds), and his ability to absorb big hits—highlighting an end-around where he was drilled by a safety, then jogged back in the next play—as proof size concerns are overblown. With Hayden Winks echoing the same stance, Mattek is jamming Worthy exposure before the market corrects, expecting spike-week production that wins Best Ball tournaments.

Peter Overzet quietly slid Jaylen Warren into the queue, explaining that a sideline blow-up between the coaching staff and Caleb Johnson reinforced his belief that Johnson is not a real threat. Overzet expects Warren to open 2024 as the primary runner while locking down the passing-down role for the full season—exactly the combination that produced usable RB2 weeks last year. Given that dual-use workload and a discounted draft slot, Overzet prefers Warren over backs like Tracy and views him as a value anchor for Zero-RB style builds.

Davis Mattek lobbied to grab Kyren Williams at the 3.10, reminding the room that Williams pumped out roughly 22 PPR points a week during last year’s money weeks and carried his NFC Primetime squad to the overall points lead until the final weekend. Mattek argued that Sean McVay’s willingness to feature one back, plus Williams’ pass-game chops, gives him a rare workhorse ceiling in the current running-back landscape. Because of that weekly RB1 potential, Mattek is happy to spend late-third capital instead of hoping a committee back emerges later in the draft.

Jakob Sanderson said Matthew Golden is exactly the kind of wide-receiver dart he wants in FFPC best-ball drafts. Sanderson admitted Golden’s college production profile has warts that would normally make him a fade in dynasty formats, but pointed out that the rookie has already been penciled in for real snaps with Green Bay and has generated steady positive camp buzz. Because late-round fantasy success is often driven by simple playing time plus spike-week talent, Sanderson prefers taking shots on Golden over low-ceiling vets who need multiple injuries to matter.

Pat Kerrane remained bullish on Rashee Rice, arguing the market is over-reacting to the suspension cloud. Kerrane expects the disciplinary process to move much faster than the Deshaun Watson precedent because the plea deal means facts are settled and the hearing happens in-season. His base assumption is “meeting then ruling,” with Susan Robinson potentially handing down the decision within a week, which would keep a six-game ban entirely inside Weeks 5-11 and allow Rice to return for the Main-Event playoffs. With that timeline in mind, Kerrane is comfortable drafting Rice alongside players like Chris Olave and Rome Odunze and believes the discount will disappear if a quick ruling materializes.

Jakob Sanderson warned that the timing of Rashee Rice’s looming personal-conduct suspension creates a very real chance managers lose him for the FFPC Main-Event league playoffs that start in Week 13. The hearing is scheduled after Week 4; if the arbitrator (Susan Robinson) hands down the widely expected six-game ban and then takes more than a week to release her decision—as she did in the Deshaun Watson case—the six games plus waiting period would wipe out the Chiefs’ seven contests between Weeks 6-12 (Kansas City has a Week 10 bye). Sanderson put Rice’s availability odds at roughly 80 percent for Best-Ball playoff weeks (17-17) but only 50-50 for managed-league playoffs. Because of that added risk he is dropping Rice to the “round-six, Chris Olave / Jalen Jennings / Ricky Pearsall nexus” and called aggressive drafting right now a mistake.

Pat Kerrane argued that Rashee Rice is essentially undraftable in the FFPC Main Event after the latest legal update. Kerrane walked through the timeline: the earliest the NFL could issue discipline is Week 5; if a six-game ban is handed down and Rice immediately appeals, the process would almost certainly drag beyond Week 10, pushing any enforced absence into the league-playoff window (Weeks 15–17). Because FFPC uses head-to-head regular-season weeks to qualify for a tournament-style playoff, Kerrane said teams cannot afford to lose a starting wideout during that period. He compared the situation to Ezekiel Elliott’s mid-season suspension in 2017, noting how that torpedoed otherwise strong rosters. With wide-receiver depth plentiful in the draft range and Kansas City already adding Marquise Brown and rookie Xavier Worthy, Kerrane recommended simply passing on Rice at any price until there is clarity on the disciplinary timeline.

Ron Stewart said Mike Evans remains a strong selection in FFPC managed formats, pointing to Chris Godwin currently opening camp on the PUP list, which should funnel a hefty early-season target share to Evans. Stewart highlighted Evans’ unmatched consistency—nine straight 1,000-yard seasons—and noted that Tampa was willing to feed him manufactured touches last year, including 19 screens, to keep that streak alive. With the Buccaneers lacking established pass-catchers behind Evans and Godwin and Baker Mayfield showing a tendency to lock onto his primary read, Stewart expects Evans to post a safe weekly floor with spike-week upside. He believes age concerns are overstated and that the veteran profiles as a high-floor WR3 who can deliver WR1 weeks, making his ADP in the mid-fourth round an easy click when teams need reliable production.

Davis Mattek lobbied to take Kyren Williams over George Kittle, citing the Rams’ offseason contract extension as a clear sign they intend to keep feeding Williams as a high-volume workhorse. Mattek noted the market has been slow to react—most drafters are still selecting wide receivers like Garrett Wilson, Marvin Harrison Jr., and Jaxon Smith-Njigba in the same range even though that tier has "lost its luster" over the last two weeks. With running backs naturally pulling up in ADP and Los Angeles showing long-term commitment, Mattek believes Williams should be pushed into the early-third round of FFPC drafts and represents a better expected-value pick than a positional premium tight end like Kittle in this specific scoring format.

Pat Kerrane pushed back on Jakob Sanderson’s concerns and laid out the bullish case for Bucky Irving. Kerrane highlighted Irving’s impressive receiving profile, noting that he "really, really flashed as a receiver" while already handling goal-line carries last season. He argued that with Rashad White—the primary passing-down option—dealing with an injury, Irving’s path to a true three-down workload is wide-open. Kerrane added that year-two running backs are historically where we see the biggest jump in target share, and Tampa’s coaching staff has already trusted Irving near the stripe. If Irving can reach roughly 70 % of snaps while maintaining the goal-line role, Kerrane believes he carries ‘legendary’ upside in FFPC best-ball tournaments.

Jakob Sanderson argued that Sean Tucker is simply "better at the game" than Rashad White and therefore has a realistic chance to seize the majority of Tampa Bay’s backfield work once he is on the field. Sanderson reminded listeners that Tucker actually out-scored Bucky Irving in each back’s first career start, illustrating the talent gap he sees on tape. With White currently dinged-up, Sanderson expects coaches to give Tucker an expanded snap share; if Tucker flashes, he believes that will snowball into even more future touches. Because the Buccaneers have historically consolidated touches when a runner separates, Sanderson views Tucker as a high-upside stash in best-ball and high-stakes season-long formats.

Jacob Sanderson said he is fading Christian McCaffrey in Underdog’s Best Ball Mania while viewing him as the ideal early-round selection in the FFPC Main Event. Sanderson emphasized that format context drives the stance: McCaffrey’s week-to-week floor and elite touch share fit managed leagues that reward season-long consistency, but his BBM price is prohibitive for tournament structures that are decided by single-week ceilings in the playoff rounds.

Davis Mattek backed Sean Tucker as the Buccaneers runner to stash, stating Tucker is simply better at football than Rashad White. Mattek believes that once Tucker starts eating into White’s snap share the coaches will keep rewarding him with more work, a snow-ball effect that could flip the depth chart. The takeaway: draft or add Tucker cheaply now and temper expectations for White’s 2024 workload.

Peter Overzet said that according to ETR’s internal projections, Rashid Shaheed is the single biggest gap-beater in drafts right now—projected far above where he’s going in both Best Ball and managed formats. Overzet relayed that ETR’s social-media analyst Dave compared Shaheed’s projection to his ADP and found no other player offering more surplus value. At Shaheed’s double-digit-round cost in the FFPC Main Event or Underdog’s Big Dog, Pete argued you can slide him into a flex spot and bank on his spike-week deep targets without sacrificing early capital.

Jakob Sanderson argued that Calvin Ridley is a pass in current drafts because of opportunity cost, not the player himself. Ridley typically comes off the board in the late-fourth/early-fifth round, a pocket Sanderson calls the most talent-dense in the draft. He prefers TreVeyon Henderson, Hunter Henry, Jaylen Waddle, George Pickens, Kenneth Walker and several others who routinely share that range. Sanderson said he would be interested if Ridley’s ADP slipped to the 38-overall neighborhood, but at today’s price he rarely clicks the button, seeing little chance that Ridley becomes a true “you have to have him” piece in 2025 best-ball tournaments.

Davis Mattek said Calvin Ridley is set up for an "Andre Johnson-style" season where the surrounding offense is a mess but Ridley just keeps piling up numbers. Mattek’s case: (1) Tennessee has “no one on the roster who can earn targets,” so Ridley should dominate volume. (2) He expects a weekly stat line in the neighborhood of 8 catches for 80 yards, estimating roughly a 60-plus percent chance at a touchdown each week. (3) Even after Ridley’s ADP jumped from the 6th–7th round of early best-ball drafts, Mattek still views him as a strong buy because that combination of target share and red-zone equity is scarce in his current draft pocket. He prefers Ridley over similarly priced wideouts such as Terry McLaurin and Courtland Sutton and would even bet straight up on Ridley to out-score Marvin Harrison Jr. in raw 2025 fantasy points.

Jakob Sanderson painted a bleak fantasy outlook for Matthew Stafford after the quarterback’s latest herniated-disc flare-up. Sanderson does not see a workable ‘middle outcome’: either the pain resolves quickly, or Stafford winds up in surgery and possibly contemplating retirement. Because nerve pain in the back is "not something you grit through," Sanderson believes the Rams will be ultra-cautious, potentially holding Stafford out well into the regular season. That makes every Rams pass-catcher a volatility grenade, particularly Puka Nacua, whose target supply hinges on Stafford’s accuracy and willingness to throw over the middle. Sanderson advised drafters to discount Los Angeles stacks and have contingency plans for weeks 1-4 at minimum, warning that the risk profile feels more like a binary 0 or 16-game season than the market currently prices in.

Davis Mattek argued that Isiah Pacheco is mispriced by roughly 30 picks in current best-ball ADP. Even if the Chiefs bring in a ‘dusty’ veteran like Kareem Hunt to handle some pass-pro reps, Mattek noted that camp reports say Pacheco has "looked better than I was hoping he would" and has already taken the lion’s share of first-team carries. Kansas City’s tendency to lean on short, quick throws only boosts Pacheco’s floor, and with Elijah Mitchell trending toward release and Bershard Smith confined to special teams, Mattek sees a clear every-down pathway developing by mid-season. He told listeners to snap up Pacheco anywhere in the sixth round or later as a cheap conduit to Patrick Mahomes’ backfield.

Davis Mattek said Elijah Mitchell is on the wrong side of the Chiefs’ roster bubble after what he called a "tell-tale" preseason usage pattern. Mitchell did not see the field until Bailey Zappe and the third-string offense entered, a huge red flag for a franchise that normally hides anyone they actually care about in August. Mattek added that beat-writers have described Mitchell as a step slower than the version we saw in San Francisco and noted a string of negative practice reports about ball security and burst. Because Kansas City already treats the preseason like the Rams—resting starters and key backups—Mattek concluded the team is effectively showcasing Mitchell for other clubs before an inevitable cut-down. Fantasy investors looking for late-round Chiefs exposure should steer clear; Mattek expects Mitchell to be unemployed by Week 1.

Pat Kerrane acknowledged a "six or seven" worry level on Matthew Stafford’s balky back but still views Puka Nacua as worth his mid-second ADP. Kerrane argued Nacua’s game-breaking efficiency—2.85 yards per route run as a rookie—comes mostly on short- and intermediate patterns that a lower-ceiling replacement such as Jimmy Garoppolo could still deliver. If Stafford’s herniated-disc saga resolves quickly, Kerrane expects L.A. to again rank top-10 in neutral-situation pass rate, keeping Nacua locked into double-digit weekly targets. Should Stafford miss extended time, Kerrane projects only a 12 percent dip in Puka’s expected fantasy points because Sean McVay would lean on quick throws to mask line issues and protect a backup. Bottom line: the talent and role outweigh the quarterback risk, so keep drafting.

Davis Mattek warned drafters to throttle back on Rashee Rice exposure until the league finally announces the looming suspension he expects to be "four to six games." Mattek noted that once the punishment becomes official Rice’s ADP will almost certainly crater—just as Jordan Addison’s dipped immediately after his three-game news last year—creating a far better buying window for the final 20–25 Best Ball Mania entries. He is only taking Rice in time-boxed contests that finish before the suspension bites, preferring to "windmill in" the cheaper price later for regular-season formats. The long-term view stays bullish on Rice’s role in a Patrick Mahomes offense; the short-term advice is simple: stop clicking him at current fifth-round cost and wait for the discount.

Pat Kerrane warned that New York’s meticulous preseason drive allocation—Hall on early downs, “Davis” checking in for every 3rd-and-5+, and another back getting his own series—almost certainly mirrors their intended Week 1 rotation. He stressed that coaches only micro-manage preseason snaps when they want to rehearse the real thing, making this more alarming than Jacksonville’s Etienne/Bigsby split. If that plan holds Hall could lose most obvious passing-down work, capping both snap share and reception upside. Kerrane nudged Hall down in his ranks and advised best-ball drafters to temper expectations until the Jets show a different look.

Jakob Sanderson pushed back, offering a $1,000 wager that if Mims reaches 300 routes he will post under 2.0 yards per route run. Citing Reception-Perception data that placed Mims in the 1st percentile versus man and 22nd versus zone, Sanderson argued Mims cannot separate on a full route tree and lived off low-sample deep shots last year. He also pointed to Sean Payton’s career-long habit of rotating six or seven wideouts and the emergence of Troy Franklin and Pat Bryant as further snap competition. Sanderson believes Mims is overdrafted and will disappoint fantasy managers once his role expands.

Davis Mattek remains aggressively overweight on Marvin Mims after seeing him run with the starters all preseason. Mattek projects roughly 480 routes (up from 206 last year) and still expects about 2.07 yards per route run even with the volume bump—good for ~990 yards and a WR28 finish. He compared the potential usage to Sean Payton’s old Lance Moore seasons: vertical shots plus schemed slot targets. Mattek highlighted Mims’ 2.57 YPRR as a rookie, Payton’s public praise, and the lack of proven depth behind him as evidence the role is secure. At his late-round price Mims is a screaming buy in best-ball drafts.

Pat Kerrane said he is bailing on Tank Bigsby at his recent 120-ish draft slot after watching Jacksonville’s first preseason series. Travis Etienne handled the opening drive while Bigsby logged the heavier "get your reps" workload that coaches usually give non-starters, undercutting the entire thesis that Bigsby would be the trusted early-down runner on 1st-and-10. Because Bigsby offers almost no receiving production, Kerrane now sees him as only the low-ceiling early-down leg of a three-back committee. He moved Bigsby outside the top-150 overall and prefers higher-upside stabs like Tuten, Dylan Sampson, or Jaydon Blue in that range.

Pat Kerrane explained why he moved Tank Bigsby down his ranks following Jacksonville’s first preseason action. Travis Etienne took 100 percent of the snaps with the starters, confirming the staff’s trust in him. Because Bigsby profiles strictly as a two-down runner, any loss of base-down snaps tanks his fantasy value. Kerrane contrasted the new usage with earlier optimistic camp reports that had Bigsby leading the backfield, saying those projections must be corrected. He advised drafters to fade Bigsby at current ADP in best ball and season-long leagues unless preseason rotations shift back in his favor.

Davis Mattek said Joe Mixon is an avoid at current cost after a Texans beat writer put Mixon’s odds of missing Week 1 at 30 percent because of a foot injury. Mattek argued that drafters would never have let Mixon go back-to-back with Chuba Hubbard earlier in the summer if that information had been available. With Houston comfortable rotating backs and Dameon Pierce waiting in the wings, Mattek expects Mixon’s early-season workload—and therefore his season-long ceiling—to be capped. Until positive health news surfaces, Mattek views any ADP discounts as illusory and is fading Mixon in best-ball drafts.

Jakob Sanderson said drafters should quit hand-wringing about how many mouths the Chargers have to feed because Ladd McConkey is going to eat regardless. McConkey ran 79 percent of his college routes on the perimeter, so the rookie can stay on the field in 12-personnel as well as in the slot. Sanderson emphasized that route competition will be among Keenan Allen, Quentin Johnston, Keandre Lambert-Smith, and Tre Harris—McConkey’s snaps are secure. With a full-time role and a proven ability to earn targets, Sanderson believes McConkey’s current best-ball price is still a bargain even after the early-August ADP spike.

Davis Mattek argued that passing on Keenan Allen at his current 12th-round ADP is "classic sloppy stubbornness." Mattek projected Allen to "sleepwalk into 70 receptions, 870 yards and five touchdowns" even on what he called a terrible Bears offense, noting the veteran was a fantasy-playoff hero in 2024. He highlighted Allen’s target-earning chops—posting a higher targets-per-route rate than Rome Odunze last year—and pointed out that Chicago lacks an established receiving tight end, so targets should funnel to Allen even while he lines up at X. Mattek views Allen’s volume and predictable weekly usage as a low-cost way to bank 115-plus targets with occasional spike weeks that can swing playoff matchups.

Jakob Sanderson said he is perfectly happy clicking Christian McCaffrey as early as the 1.03 in the FFPC Main Event, calling him "a way better pick in the main event than in BestBallMania" because managed-league lineups let you replace an injury-out while still capturing McCaffrey’s unrivaled weekly ceiling. Sanderson pointed out that McCaffrey has not missed a single OTA or training-camp rep and is practicing without limitations. He added that San Francisco’s schedule is “so cake”—Houston is the toughest road opponent thanks to last-place scheduling perks—so the 49ers should be playing from ahead most weeks, feeding high-value touches to their bell-cow. In Sanderson’s view we will look back and say McCaffrey "probably should have been the 101 the whole time."

Mike Schopp highlighted George Kittle as a strong target at pick 2.10 in FFPC main events. San Francisco’s receiving corps is suddenly decimated—Brandon Aiyuk and Jauan Jennings are nursing calf injuries, several depth options such as Jacob Cowings and Austin Watkins are sidelined, and DeMarcus Robinson is facing a three-game DUI suspension. With almost no healthy wideouts, Schopp expects Kyle Shanahan to funnel a larger share of the passing game through Kittle early in the season. In tight-end-premium scoring, that boost in volume plus Kittle’s red-zone usage justifies grabbing him ahead of ADP.

Jakob Sanderson framed Quinshon Judkins as the ideal late-season lottery ticket once he falls outside pick 150. Sanderson is comfortable eating six weeks of zeros on rosters that already feature premium backs like Christian McCaffrey because Judkins could return from suspension to a wide-open Browns backfield and become the lead runner for the fantasy playoffs. At that price, Sanderson argues, all you’re risking is an 18th-round bench piece while the payoff could be a fresh, motivated back stepping into full-time work when it matters most.

Pat Kerrane pushed back on the Quinshon Judkins enthusiasm, pointing out that a six-game suspension means the runner will spend most of the year away from the facility. With only a couple weeks of OTAs under his belt, Judkins will have no practice reps, minimal knowledge of the playbook and zero rapport with coaches or quarterbacks. Kerrane asked how a back who joins the club in mid-October is supposed to become Cleveland’s starter "two weeks later." At an ADP in the 150s he views the pick as paying for a scenario that is almost impossible to achieve.

Davis Mattek said to stay away from Najee Harris even though his ADP has cratered into the 170s. Mattek originally liked Harris for early-season goal-line equity while coaches showed the veteran some deference, but that thesis dies if Harris, still on the non-football-injury list with an eye issue, cannot get cleared for contact. Jim Harbaugh admitted the club has no timeline, so Harris might not even dress in Week 1. Mattek thinks the best-case outcome is Harris backing up Omarion Hampton later in the year, turning the pick into a small win but a gigantic miss if you burn a roster spot on zeros all season.

Reacting to Jim Harbaugh’s vague "his eye is open" update, Davis Mattek said he is no longer interested in drafting Najee Harris at anything close to his early-August ADP. Mattek pointed out that the only defensible thesis for Harris was short-term goal-line volume while the rookie backs ramped up. If Harris "is not even going to be active in Week 1," that thesis is dead. Mattek now treats Harris strictly as the handcuff to Omarion Hampton and will only click him once he falls into the 170s—well after the range where he had been selected earlier in draft season.

Davis Mattek said drafters are overreacting to Trey McBride’s thin touchdown resume, calling the idea that the Cardinals tight end has an inherent glass ceiling on scoring "a sloppy-ass statement." Mattek stressed that touchdown production is highly volatile from season to season; McBride’s bad variance in college and the NFL does not predict future returns. Because many best-ball rooms still treat him as a player who "never scores," McBride’s ADP stays in the back half of drafts. Mattek advised continuing to scoop McBride at that depressed cost, arguing you’re paying for a floor that already assumes no improvement while still capturing the genuine upside that comes with even modest positive TD regression.

Pat Kerrane argued that seventh-round rookie Brashard Smith is quietly being trained to replace Jerick McKinnon in Kansas City’s high-value passing-down role, making him an ideal dart in the final rounds of best-ball drafts. Smith has already taken reps with the first team and is expected to make the roster as a kick returner—the same path Isiah Pacheco followed as a rookie. The Chiefs tried and failed to fill the receiving-back job with Samaje Perine last year, and neither Pacheco nor veteran tryout Kareem Hunt fits that skill set. Kerrane added that Elijah Mitchell “hasn’t looked explosive” and could even be cut, further clearing Smith’s path. If Smith locks down the two-minute and red-zone routes that fueled McKinnon’s late-season spike weeks in 2022, he could become a playoff winner despite minimal early-season usage. At his near-free price after Round 18, Kerrane views Smith as an asymmetric upside bet with almost no downside.

Pat Kerrane said Jacory Croskey-Merritt is exactly the kind of last-round swing he wants in best-ball tournaments. Because the rookie went almost completely undrafted earlier in the summer, any team that rosters him gains unique leverage against the early ADP super-teams you must beat in single-week eliminations. Kerrane pointed to an unusually loud camp drumbeat—four of six Commanders beat writers recently named Croskey-Merritt their biggest standout and one predicted he would be the starter by December. The depth chart is "pretty open;" outside of Brian Robinson there is no entrenched talent, and Dan Quinn’s reluctance to hand work to rookies simply means the bet is back-weighted. Kerrane framed the upside as “Brian Robinson with more juice” down the stretch. He also reminded listeners that Croskey-Merritt lost his senior college season, giving scouts a wide range of outcomes and making his seventh-round draft capital potentially deceptive. As long as the price remains in the final rounds, Kerrane sees immense upside with minimal opportunity cost.

Davis Mattek argued drafters should sprinkle a few Diontae Johnson shares as a portfolio hedge against heavy Harold Fannin Jr. exposure. Mattek recalled Johnson’s three-week heater last season when he posted 8-122-1, 7-83-1 and 6-78-1 lines and finished as a top-10 Battle Royale wide receiver each week. With Joe Flacco now the favorite to start — "best-case scenario for all of them" — Mattek believes Johnson could once again carve out spike-week production if he sticks as Cleveland’s primary slot option. Because both Fannin and Johnson go in round 20, swapping one for the other keeps roster construction intact while capturing Johnson’s proven ceiling at virtually zero cost. "If Deontay hits one 8-for-122 game you stone-lock him into a bunch of finals," Mattek said, framing the move as asymmetric upside that combats over-exposure to a single Browns piece.

Pat Kerrane advised fading Diontae Johnson despite the appealing 20th-round price. Citing the Akron Beacon Journal’s updated depth chart, Kerrane noted Johnson is now listed behind starters Jerry Jeudy and Cedric Tillman and even behind backups DeAndre Carter, Jamari Thrash and Kaden Davis. Johnson’s camp has been "highly concerning," and Kerrane doubts he is even locked into the final 53, let alone a slot role that would earn usable snaps. He also highlighted added target competition from Jeudy over the middle and a likely downgrade in quarterback play, making last year’s brief Carolina volume unlikely to repeat. Given the very real chance Johnson never sees the field, Kerrane prefers using the final pick on receivers with locked-in playing time such as Khalil Shakir or Kayshon Boutte rather than "burning a 20th-round pick on a guy who might literally never play."

Davis Mattek said Jordan James is his preferred last-round lottery ticket in San Francisco. Fourth-round rookie Isaac Guerendo and James are both currently sidelined, leaving 30-year-old Amir Abdullah as the temporary RB2 behind Christian McCaffrey. Mattek reminded listeners that Kyle Shanahan drafts a back every year because injuries always ravage the depth chart; Guerendo, for example, "has been injured his whole life and never got a full season in college." With Shanahan "terrified of rolling into the season with one-and-a-half running backs," Mattek expects whoever is healthy between the two rookies to claim the direct-backup role and inherit contingent touches in one of the league’s most RB-friendly offenses. James still costs a 20th-round pick, so Mattek is happily loading up in Best Ball as a pure upside stash whose path to relevance requires only the usual 49ers injury chaos.

Peter Overzet dismissed Will Shipley as a trap, arguing the rookie offers zero reliable fantasy value unless Saquon Barkley gets hurt. Overzet compared the buzz to last year’s failed Kenneth Gainwell hype and pointed out that the Eagles have ranked near the bottom of the league in running-back target rate for three straight seasons. With Barkley owning a three-down skill set, Overzet does not expect Shipley to siphon meaningful touches; projecting two or three catches per game is “wish-casting.” In his models Shipley would open the season at just 1.2 fantasy points per week, which he believes is a weaker proposition than betting on a player like Breshard Smith who at least has a clearly defined third-down path. For that reason Overzet is fading Shipley in best-ball contests unless Barkley’s health situation changes drastically.

Davis Mattek pushed back on the Shipley skepticism and called the rookie a sharp late-round pick behind Saquon Barkley. Mattek cited multiple Eagles beat writers who have discussed Shipley having a legitimate standalone role, noting that A.J. Dillon is expected to handle early-down work while Shipley gets most of the passing-down snaps. The Clemson alum averaged 3.2 receptions per game in college and could immediately provide 3-4 catches on Sundays—a usable weekly floor in full-PPR best-ball formats. More importantly, Mattek sees true contingent RB1 upside: if Barkley misses time, Shipley possesses the skill set to take over all three downs. Mattek therefore projects roughly 4.2 fantasy points per week to start, with clear pathways to double-digit spike weeks later in the year, making Shipley a better bet than similarly priced flyers like Breshard Smith.

Pat Kerrane referenced a steady stream of Washington beat reports that mirror last summer's narrative: with Terry McLaurin absent, Zach Ertz is "getting every ball" in practice. Kerrane said the drumbeat reaffirms Ertz’s reputation as a volume sponge – he produced a 20-plus percent target share the last time he was healthy – and argued that reception-driven tight ends gain outsized value in premium formats. Because late-round drafters often need a dependable weekly floor after punting the position, Kerrane advocated making Ertz the third tight end on best-ball rosters. His path to fantasy utility is clear: bankable short-area volume with minimal cost and no reliance on random touchdowns.

Peter Overzet pointed out that T.J. Hockenson is falling two full rounds compared to prior FFPC seasons. Hockenson had routinely been a fourth-round selection, yet this summer drafters can land him in round six despite his 24% post-trade target share in Minnesota and a role that demands underneath volume. Overzet said that in tight-end-premium formats a sixth-round Hockenson is "totally fine," because his high reception total converts directly into bonus points without paying the Trey McBride, Brock Bowers or Mark Andrews tax. The value window closes quickly after Dallas Goedert, so he urged listeners not to overthink locking up Hockenson if he slips into the mid-sixth.

Davis Mattek explained that tight-end-premium scoring warps ADP in two distinct ways: it pushes the true elites such as Trey McBride and Brock Bowers way up the board and it artificially inflates the touchdown-reliant mid-tier (the TE5-TE8 range). Mattek called those "touchdown-deodorant" options the worst picks you can make because they are priced up without a stable reception floor. He prefers sliding past them and scooping reception-based veterans like Hunter Henry – and by extension Dalton Schultz – who routinely fall multiple rounds later. Because Henry collects points through short-area targets rather than fluky red-zone spikes, his weekly floor actually benefits from the premium scoring while his ADP stays depressed. Mattek recommended targeting Henry once the Dallas Goedert tier is gone, noting he is one of the few tight ends who gains real value while costing very little draft capital in FFPC best-ball rooms.

Davis Mattek warned drafters to stay away from Miles Sanders, calling him "left-wing sloppy" because his draft price is built only on hypothetical volume. "Sanders has done nothing to deserve any kind of draft capital—it’s all opportunity," Mattek said, contrasting him with more efficient or versatile backs. Without proven efficiency or passing-game chops, Sanders needs everything to break perfectly on the Cowboys’ depth chart just to pay off ADP, making him a fade in both managed and best-ball formats.

Davis Mattek slammed T.J. Hockenson’s sixth-round ADP, calling it "a shitty pick." Mattek argued that Hockenson sits in the dead zone of tight ends 5-8 who are artificially pushed up in tight-end premium scoring but lack true difference-making upside. Unlike Mark Andrews—who has shown an 11-TD-in-12-games ceiling—Hockenson’s value hinges almost entirely on receptions, and Mattek doesn’t believe those catches translate into weekly leverage at that price. His recommendation: either pay for an elite option like Andrews or wait several rounds for cheaper flyers such as Colston Loveland rather than spending a premium pick on Hockenson.

Pat Kerrane said Hunter Henry was an underrated tight-end option in FFPC‐style tight-end premium drafts. Henry hauled in 66 catches last year and, according to Kerrane, reception volume is exactly what gets the 1.5-PPR bump rather than fluky red-zone spikes. With only Stefon Diggs clearly ahead of him on the Patriots’ target tree, Kerrane noted Henry could conceivably lead the team in targets if Diggs misses time. That profile makes him a late-round value compared with mid-tier "touchdown-deodorant" tight ends who go several rounds earlier but rely almost entirely on scoring variance for production.

Davis Mattek cautioned drafters that Harvey’s workload could be maddeningly volatile. Citing Ben Albright’s assertion that "it’s clearly Dobbins’ backfield," Mattek said he has internalized Harvey as more of a Pierre Thomas pass-catching complement than a Mark Ingram workhorse. In some game scripts Harvey might see only six touches, leaving managers with a dud in their best-ball lineups. Mattek still likes Harvey as a talent but argued the uncertainty makes him a shakier pick than wide receivers such as DK Metcalf available in the same FFPC range.