Gehman laid -120 on Jason Day 30th-or-better, citing Day’s West-Coast track record that only Tiger Woods and Jon Rahm can match across the American Express, Farmers, and Pebble Beach. Fresh off a T2 in Palm Springs, Day’s well-rounded game profiles perfectly for Torrey’s blend of long irons, thick rough, and poa greens.

Gehman bet Jake Knapp 31st-or-better at +100 after a stealth T11 in Honolulu. Knapp gained off the tee in two more rounds, marking seven straight events gaining multiple strokes with the driver. Gehman thinks that reliable weapon keeps Knapp safely inside the cut line and into the 30s on a course where distance is mandatory.

Gehman played Marco Penge top-20 at +230 even in his first PGA TOUR start, arguing that an early-season illness is the only reason the market is sleeping. Penge won three times on the DP World Tour in 2025 and finished runner-up to Gotterup at the Scottish Open, flashing elite distance that should translate immediately to Torrey Pines.

Gehman took Kevin Yu for a top-20 at +240, stressing that Torrey’s average approach shot (182 yards) plays right into Yu’s wheelhouse. Yu ranks 4th on TOUR in strokes gained on approaches outside 180 yards and already owns strong course vibes with a T6 here in 2024 plus a T17 at last year’s Genesis Invitational on another long West-Coast track.

Gehman slotted Chris Gotterup for a top-10 at +280, noting the fresh confidence from his Sony Open victory and a 123 mph club-head speed that should let him launch it past Torrey’s gnarly rough. That combination of raw distance and recent winning form makes Gehman believe Gotterup will remain on the first page of the leaderboard.

Rick Gehman backed Cameron Young to win at +1800, pointing to an 11-event stretch that closed 2025 with seven top-10s and a breakthrough win at the Wyndham Championship. Gehman highlighted Young’s return to top-tier driving—one of the few players who can reliably turn the ball right-to-left—and said that combination of power and controlled shot shape is exactly what Torrey Pines rewards on its 7,700-yard setup with demanding long-iron approaches and penal rough.

Riley Hamel recommended betting Wyndham Clark at 55/1, citing the player’s recent heater—top-20 finishes in four of his last five PGA Tour starts—and a T-7 result at TPC Southwind in 2024. Clark currently sits 49th in the FedEx Cup standings and needs a strong showing to lock up a BMW Championship berth, a motivational angle Hamel believes will produce aggressive play. With Clark’s hot putter and volatile scoring upside, Hamel thinks bettors should ride the momentum at the generous outright price.

Riley Hamel labeled Daniel Berger an automatic add at 50/1 because of his dominant history at TPC Southwind. Berger won here in 2016 and 2017, missed the cut only once in 2018, and has since finished T-2 in 2020 and T-5 in 2021. Hamel trusts the clear horses-for-courses trend, noting Southwind’s par-70 setup accentuates Berger’s accurate driving and wedge play. He believes the betting market is undervaluing that track record, making 50/1 a value position for outright tickets.

Riley Hamel said Matt Fitzpatrick is a strong outright bet at 22/1 for the FedEx St. Jude Championship. Hamel pointed out that since the beginning of May Fitzpatrick has finished inside the top-25 in seven of nine starts and cracked the top-10 five times, including each of his last four tournaments. Course history also tilts in his favor: three top-10s in six career trips to TPC Southwind and a T-18 here in 2024. Hamel likes the combination of red-hot recent form, proven success on the par-70 Southwind layout, and Fitzpatrick’s comfort on Bermuda greens, arguing the number is mis-priced relative to the short odds on Scottie Scheffler.