Pat Kerrane noted that Tyler Warren’s ADP has finally corrected to a point where he is comfortable adding him—so long as the Penn State rookie falls behind Isaiah Likely and Dallas Goddard. Warren often drifts five or more spots past his Underdog average, and Kerrane likes scooping those slips, especially on DraftKings where stacks with Anthony Richardson come at an even steeper discount. He cautioned that Warren is still a luxury pick rather than a tight-end anchor, but in builds that already locked up an elite option he views Warren’s athleticism and potential route share as ideal late-round juice.

Kerrane cannot understand why drafters keep pricing George Kittle in the early fifth round. He reminded listeners that the same discount existed last year when skeptics doubted 49ers pass volume—then San Francisco threw more and Kittle delivered multiple 25-point weeks. Now the offense may have to pass even more with reports ranking the 49ers defense near the bottom of the league and injuries thinning the receiving corps (Deebo departure rumors, Brandon Aiyuk ACL, Ricky Pearsall camp injury). Kerrane expects Brock Purdy to lean heavily on his All-Pro tight end again, making Kittle’s combination of big-play ability and red-zone usage an easy smash at pick 50-55 on both Underdog and DraftKings.

Pat Kerrane argued that Trey McBride’s failure to score many touchdowns through two NFL seasons is the single soft spot in an otherwise efficient best-ball market. McBride already commands targets and racks up yards at an elite rate, yet variance has kept him off the scoreboard. Kerrane believes simply normalizing to league-average TD conversion would catapult McBride into the same weekly ceiling tier as Bowers, Kelce and Andrews while still being drafted a round later. Because tight ends are heavily touchdown-driven in half-PPR, Kerrane views betting on that regression as one of the cleanest paths to tournament-winning upside in 2025 drafts.

Beimfohr lumped Jake Ferguson into the same post-QB, pre-kicker wasteland where drafters are desperate for real upside. He loves scooping Ferguson around pick 145 on Underdog because the Cowboys funnel targets to tight ends in the middle of the field and give them frequent goal-line looks. That profile, combined with the fact that virtually every viable wide receiver is gone by that point, makes Ferguson a clean structural fit: he soaks up touchdown variance in half-PPR while freeing early capital for premium WRs and backs. Beimfohr’s directive: when the receiver board is barren, smash Ferguson and lock in a tight end who can post TE1 weeks without costing you earlier leverage spots.

Pat Kerrane called Trevor Lawrence the single most mis-priced quarterback in best-ball drafts, noting that his current 134 overall ADP should be at least 15–20 picks earlier—and he would still take Lawrence in the 90s if that became market price. Lawrence finished 2024 eighth in drop-backs, added Brian Thomas Jr. and Keon Coleman to an already fast-paced Jaguars attack, and now gets an improved tackle tandem after Jacksonville invested two early picks in the offensive line. Kerrane emphasized that Lawrence’s 20.4 expected fantasy points per game last season already sit in the low-end QB1 range; the real unlock comes if the Jaguars’ red-zone efficiency regresses upward from last year’s 27th-ranked mark. Because Lawrence also offers a sneaky rushing baseline (averaging 22 yards and 0.2 rushing TDs per game), Kerrane believes he carries top-six season-long upside while being routinely drafted as the QB16–QB17.

Erik Beimfohr said he is "about to move Brock Purdy way up" because the 49ers quarterback keeps slipping into the back of the double-digit rounds despite checking every box drafters chase at the position. Purdy finished 2024 first in yards per attempt (9.3) and second in EPA per play, yet his Underdog ADP sits 15–20 spots behind Jared Goff and Bo Nix, quarterbacks Beimfohr argues have identical pocket-passer profiles but significantly lower per-attempt efficiency. With Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, and George Kittle all healthy, San Francisco averaged 0.56 EPA per drop-back—nearly double the league average—giving Purdy weekly 25-point ceilings even without rushing juice. Beimfohr stressed that drafters can snag Purdy around pick 115, stack him with at least one of his yak monsters, and walk away with a fringe top-5 projection while everyone else pays a round earlier for less efficient arms.

Pat Kerrane said Evan Engram is one of the loosest ADP tags on the board, calling him a full-blown every-down candidate who is somehow drifting in the 110-to-120 range on Underdog drafts. Kerrane noted that Sean Payton has historically funneled routes to his primary tight end (Jimmy Graham and Jared Cook both logged 65-plus route-participation seasons under Payton), and Engram faces minimal target competition behind an unproven receiver room headlined by Courtland Sutton and a cluster of rookies. Bo Nix’s short-area accuracy (70-percent completion rate at Oregon, fourth-lowest collegiate aDOT among ’24 draft QBs) fits Engram’s chain-moving skill set perfectly. Kerrane argued that if Engram runs even 70 percent of routes he can out-produce Sam LaPorta, yet he costs 30 picks less and lets drafters lock in Bowers or McBride early while still grabbing a discounted TE2 later.

Erik Beimfohr said Jalen Hurts falling into Round 5 on Underdog is “straight robbery.” Hurts averaged 24.5 half-PPR points per game last season—third among quarterbacks—and his 15 rushing touchdowns dwarfed every backfield in the NFC East. With drafters prioritizing the shiny new toys in Jaden Daniels and Caleb Williams, Hurts routinely slips to pick 55 where managers can scoop him without owning A.J. Brown or DeVonta Smith. Beimfohr loves that flexibility: he can grab one or both Eagle wideouts when values present themselves but is never forced to reach. He also noted that Hurts’ price is even cheaper on DraftKings, yet the half-PPR scoring on Underdog amplifies his rushing equity and goal-line “tush-push” sneaks. Beimfohr’s takeaway: hit the draft button whenever Hurts drops past the early fourth; you secure an elite weekly floor, a 35-point playoff ceiling, and can still hammer wide receivers and running backs around him.

Erik Beimfohr said Breece Hall is being criminally under-drafted in Round 4 on Underdog and called him an "absolute smash." Beimfohr ran a 2-v-2 comparison: an early-round wide receiver such as Puka Nakua or CeeDee Lamb plus Hall versus opening with a first-round running back like Audric Jente and later settling for Calvin Ridley or Jamison Williams at wideout. He argued Hall already owns true bell-cow upside whenever he is healthy, while the market’s hand-wringing about Isaiah Davis or a supposed three-back rotation under Aaron Glenn is overblown. Because Hall routinely handles every-down work, landing him in the fourth lets drafters start WR-WR and still secure an RB1 ceiling, creating what Beimfohr believes is the cleanest path to Week-17 firepower in 2025 best-ball tournaments.

Pat Kerrane called Brian Robinson one of the biggest fades at his new Underdog ADP of 89. Robinson cost pick-110 last summer, yet nothing in his profile has improved to justify a 20-spot bump. He handled only 47 % of snaps in 2024, failed to reach 18 touches after Week 6, and lost nearly all two-minute work to Chris Rodriguez. Kerrane doubts a Jacoby Brissett offense raises Robinson’s touchdown ceiling, and the running back’s meager passing role (0.60 yards per route run) makes true RB1 weeks virtually impossible. With higher-ceiling options such as Isaiah Pacheco or rookies Quinshon Judkins and Caleb Johnson available in the same range, Kerrane said he is striking Robinson from his player pool unless the price falls two full rounds.

Erik Beimfohr grudgingly endorsed Alvin Kamara as a “good pick in the sixth” on Underdog. Kamara quietly ranked RB8 in total half-PPR points last season even after missing four games, thanks to 17.7 touches and 5.9 high-value receptions per outing. Beimfohr acknowledged worries about new quarterback Tyler Shough replacing Derek Carr, but argued that Kamara’s role— 53 % team red-zone share and a 15-carry, 4-target weekly workload— should survive any competency downgrade. In half-PPR formats those rush attempts and goal-line looks carry more weight than the receptions he might lose. At a sixth-round price you are paying for a mid-RB2 yet getting realistic RB1 weekly ceilings without sacrificing elite early-round wide-receiver equity. Beimfohr’s bottom line: click the “gross” veteran, bank efficient yardage-plus-touchdown production, and let everyone else chase uncertain rookie upside at the same cost.

Pat Kerrane said fantasy managers should stop fading Joe Mixon now that his 2025 Underdog ADP sits firmly in Round 5. Mixon finished 2024 as RB10 in half-PPR points-per-game and logged a 67 % snap share despite turning 28. Kerrane emphasized that Woody Marks profiles strictly as a third-down satellite back— 188 lbs and ranked outside the top-60 in yards after contact per attempt in college— so Marks is unlikely to threaten Mixon’s early-down or goal-line work. No other Bengals back saw more than eight carries in any game last year. If Mixon simply repeats last season’s 18.4 touches and 3.1 red-zone opportunities per game, he can “bury” WR-heavy builds that pass on him for fringe wideouts with similar projection. Kerrane’s takeaway: swallow your pride, click Mixon in the fifth, and let your early-round receivers plus a bankable RB1 ceiling do the talking in best-ball tournaments.

Davis Mattek picked De'von Achane as his round-two smash, saying even a 50% haircut to last season’s ludicrous 8.0 YPC paired with 75% of his 2024 workload would still make him the story of 2025. He reminded listeners that Achane and Raheem Mostert finished RB2 and RB4 in points per game and that Miami still lacks a true third wide receiver. Mattek expects Mike McDaniel to continue scheming red-zone space plays for Achane, projecting roughly 170 carries and 80 receptions if the Dolphins offensive line can be merely league-average instead of bottom-two. Rookie backs Jalen Wright and Ollie Gordon can spell him, but Mattek believes the market’s discomfort—volume bros think he’s a gadget player, zero-RB drafters think he’s too expensive—has left Achane underpriced in the mid-second round.

Erik Beimfohr planted his flag on Jarquez Hunter as the no-brainer final-round swing, calling it “highway robbery” to land Kyren Williams’ presumed understudy at pick 212. The Rams spent a third-rounder on the 5’10", 210-pound Auburn dynamo, and both Sean McVay and GM Les Snead have gushed about Hunter’s body-builder frame and three-down skill set. Beimfohr now has Hunter penciled in ahead of Blake Corum—who goes 100 picks earlier—for the RB2 role. That contingency value is enormous: Williams missed chunks of college and has already battled foot and hip issues, yet carried a 77 % snap rate when healthy. If Williams tweaks something, the true backup in McVay’s offense projects for 15-plus touches in a unit that ranked top-10 in red-zone trips last year. Even without an injury, Beimfohr thinks Hunter could siphon high-leverage goal-line work and carve out weekly flex usability. Given day-two draft capital, glowing coach quotes, and a dirt-cheap ADP, he is stuffing Hunter into every late Best Ball roster.

Davis Mattek told listeners he is happily burning an 18th-round pick on whoever winds up second on the Chiefs’ running-back depth chart, singling out Elijah Mitchell as the most likely winner if the season started today. Mattek reminded everyone that Isiah Pacheco is still recovering from a broken leg he rushed back from in 2024 and that Kansas City has no allegiance to him if a ‘hot hand’ emerges. He rattled off the candidates—Mitchell, Breschard Smith, Kareem Hunt, Deneric Prince and even Darwin Thompson—and said the only reason they are free is pure market uncertainty. In his view, if Hunt had not re-signed, Mitchell’s ADP would already sit in the Trey Benson/Isaac Guerendo tier several rounds earlier. Pacheco’s pedestrian efficiency (4.3 YPC, RB33 in elusive-rating) plus Andy Reid’s willingness to ride a back who flashes means the true RB2 could see 20 touches in any given week or inherit the job outright if Pacheco aggravates the leg. Until beat writers give clarity, Mattek is scooping Chiefs RB2 darts everywhere in Best Ball.

Erik Beimfohr called Will Shipley the single most mis-priced player in best-ball drafts. The Eagles’ depth chart is Saquon Barkley, Shipley and A.J. Dillon after Kenny Gainwell’s departure, leaving Shipley locked into roughly 20 % of snaps from Week 1 in an offense that ranked top-five in red-zone rush rate under Kellen Moore. Beimfohr argued that contingency value is elite: Barkley has missed 21 games in six seasons, and if the 102-overall back sits, Shipley would inherit a bell-cow workload behind Philadelphia’s top-three offensive line. He compared the Clemson rookie’s upside favorably to Trey Benson—who costs six rounds more— and is drafting Shipley in every league until the market corrects what he dubbed "silly" Round-17 pricing.

Davis Mattek identified Mason Taylor as his favorite late-round tight end. The Jets spent the 42nd overall pick on Taylor strictly for his receiving chops—he played virtually every snap at LSU and is not a glorified blocker like Tip Reiman. New York’s target tree behind Garrett Wilson is barren: Josh Reynolds, Allen Lazard, rookie Malachi Corley and waiver fodder Ariyon Smith are the next men up. Even with a conservative 390-attempt projection, Mattek believes 75-plus targets are on the table for Taylor, who could become Aaron Rodgers’ second read by mid-season. He also reminded listeners that second-round rookie tight ends occasionally detonate (see Sam LaPorta) and that sort of asymmetrical upside rarely sits in the 17th round. Mattek is comfortably drafting Taylor as his TE2 in best-ball builds that punt the position.

Erik Beimfohr highlighted Pat Bryant as his Round 16 upside dart. Denver stunned the draft community by spending a third-round pick on Bryant, signalling Sean Payton sees an immediate role. Beimfohr noted the rest of the wide-receiver room is thin—Marvin Mims still isn’t a full-time player and depth options are Lil’Jordan Humphrey types—so Bryant could walk into starting perimeter snaps opposite Courtland Sutton. Payton offenses have historically coaxed usable fantasy weeks from unheralded wideouts (Humphrey, Kenny Stills, Devery Henderson), and a Year-2 leap from Bo Nix should keep pass volume respectable. Beimfohr compared Bryant’s profile to rookie Kyle Williams—who costs five rounds more— and argued the cheap rookie offers genuine spike-week potential in late-season shootouts. He is scooping shares wherever he needs low-cost WR bullets.

Davis Mattek flagged MarShawn Lloyd as a must-grab in Round 16 best-ball drafts. Mattek reminded listeners that Matt LaFleur is fanatically committed to a two-back rotation—last year he still handed touches to UDFA Emmanuel Wilson and practice-squad refugee Chris Brooks while Lloyd sat out with an emergency appendectomy. The third-round pick now has that appendix out for good, eliminating the 2024 durability red flag. Mattek expects LaFleur to keep the backfield split even after drafting big WR/RB hybrid Savian— projecting roughly 90-100 carries and a handful of weekly targets for Lloyd even in a healthy offense. If the starter misses any time, Lloyd’s fresh legs and Day-2 pedigree give him a clear runway to 15-plus touches and league-winning upside. Mattek called him “Trey Benson five rounds cheaper” and is stuffing exposure at his current price.

Erik Beimfohr called Mike Gesicki his late-round tight-end cheat code, stressing that labeling him a ‘tight end’ is a technicality—Gesicki is really a big slot who never blocks. Joe Burrow personally lobbied the Bengals to bring him back, and with Tyler Boyd gone Cincinnati desperately needs an interior target behind Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins. Rookie TE Erick All twice tore the same ACL and Tanner McLachlan is a blocking prospect, leaving Gesicki almost unchallenged for passing-down snaps. Two years ago he commanded a 14 % target share in Miami on similar slot usage, and Beimfohr expects 60-plus looks in a Bengals offense that ranked fifth in red-zone pass rate. Those high-value end-zone targets combined with Burrow’s accuracy give Gesicki a clear path to top-12 fantasy production at a round-15/16 cost—roughly the same price as waiver fodder like Durham Smythe. Beimfohr is happily banking on Gesicki whenever he punts the early-round tight-end tier.

Erik Beimfohr pegged Roschon Johnson as the quintessential Round-15 stash, arguing Chicago’s unsettled backfield gives him multiple outs to relevance. DeAndre Swift sits atop the depth chart, but Beimfohr reminded listeners every staff Swift has played for eventually soured on him, opening the door for Johnson’s reliable pass protection to earn third-down work. At 225 lbs Johnson profiles as the natural goal-line option and, in Beimfohr’s words, "a young Samaje Perine—unspectacular yet trustworthy in every phase." He forecast an initial 60/40 Swift split yet noted GM Ryan Poles’ willingness to churn the roster: one veteran cut landing in another city could instantly elevate Johnson to Chicago’s 1A role. In Ben Johnson’s uptempo offense—projected top-10 in pace and red-zone snaps—eight to ten high-value touches can swing best-ball weeks. At a 15th-round ADP, Johnson offers low-risk insurance with a viable weekly flex ceiling if the depth chart tilts his way.

Erik Beimfohr spotlighted Braelon Allen as his favorite Round-14 swing, dubbing the 19-year-old "the Jason Tatum of running backs" because he is still a teenager yet already built like a 230-pound workhorse. Beimfohr projects a 65/35 split behind Breece Hall but noted OC Klint Kubiak’s Shanahan DNA routinely forces 8–12 touches for the No. 2 back. Pairing Allen with newly acquired rushing quarterback Justin Fields should spike his yards per carry—Mattek’s earlier research showed backs next to mobile QBs gain roughly 0.5 YPC. There is also a non-zero chance New York flips Hall before the deadline to avoid an extension, a scenario that would hand Allen an every-down role for a 14th-round price. Even if a trade never comes, Allen’s size makes him the likely goal-line hammer on an offense that finished seventh in red-zone trips after Fields arrived. Beimfohr believes that blend of standalone value and nuclear contingent upside makes Allen a smash wherever drafters miss on early backs.

Erik Beimfohr said Adam Thielen is a no-brainer Round-14 selection because the market keeps writing his obituary a year too early. Thielen turned 34 last season and still piled up 615 yards and five scores in only 10 games, ripping 9-102 against Philadelphia and 5-110-2 versus Tampa. Those numbers produced WR28 value in points added per game—a pace normally drafted in the sixth round. Beimfohr argued nothing about turning 35 automatically eliminates that role, especially with Carolina’s pass-catcher depth unchanged beyond rookie Tee Mac. Thielen gives early-season stability to builds that lean on volatile upside rookies like Trey Harris or Rashee Rice and still owns the ‘one-week nuke’ profile Best Ball drafters need. With a 14th-round ADP that carries zero opportunity cost, Beimfohr is happily scooping Thielen for 14-point filler weeks and the occasional vintage blow-up when younger studs miss time.

Erik Beimfohr closed Round-13 by touting Tyler Allgeier as the quintessential premium handcuff. Arthur Smith’s Falcons led the league in rush rate over expectation last year (-11 %) and kept the same run-heavy DNA under Zac Robinson, giving Allgeier a weekly 6–8 carry floor in non-Bijan snaps. Beimfohr noted Allgeier already has two games of 20+ fantasy points on his resume and handled 203 touches as a rookie, proof he can shoulder the full load if Bijan Robinson were to miss even a couple quarters with a concussion or hamstring tweak. Falcons RBs combined for 23 carries inside the five in 2024— third-most in the NFL— so any multi-week absence from Bijan would instantly make Allgeier an every-week RB1. At a cost outside the top-150, that blend of defined contingency value and minor standalone scoring equity makes Allgeier an easy late click whenever Beimfohr fades early running backs.

Davis Mattek planted his Round-13 flag on Isaac Guerendo, calling the second-year back an "S-tier" handcuff who may still log 8–10 weekly touches even behind Christian McCaffrey. Mattek thinks San Francisco’s decision to flip Jordan Mason for a late pick signals real confidence in Guerendo as RB2. The former Louisville track star ran a 4.33 forty at 221 pounds and posted an 87th-percentile burst score— traits that mesh perfectly with Kyle Shanahan’s wide-zone scheme that led the NFL in rushing EPA per play last season. Mattek expects McCaffrey’s snap share to fall from 79 % to the low-70s in an effort to keep him fresh, projecting roughly 125 carries and 25 targets for Guerendo even without an injury. Should McCaffrey miss time, historical usage shows the backup averages 19.4 fantasy points per game under Shanahan (see 2020 Jeff Wilson stretch). At a back-half-of-Round-13 ADP, Mattek believes Guerendo belongs in the same conversation as Zach Charbonnet and Trey Benson, making him a must-click in Best Ball builds.

Davis Mattek declared Jack Bech a screaming Round-12 value, saying the rookie needs only to out-snap Trey Tucker to matter. Mattek loves the fit with new OC Chip Kelly, whose Eagles offenses annually finished top-3 in plays per game and top-5 in rushing attempts while still ranking second in total passing yards. A turbo-tempo system inside Allegiant Stadium’s dome plus six more indoor games in the AFC West creates optimal passing conditions. Mattek reminded listeners Bech actually led a 2021 LSU squad loaded with future NFL receivers (Malik Nabers, Brian Thomas Jr., Trey Palmer, Kayshon Boutte) in catches as an 18-year-old tight-end convert before smashing again after transferring to TCU. With Jacoby Meyers likely locked into intermediate work, Mattek envisions Bech handling the high-volume slot role on three-receiver sets, projecting “something like 65–70 receptions” if he logs even 70 % route participation. That rookie-year floor at a nothing cost makes him Mattek’s favorite late-round wideout in Best Ball tournaments.

Erik Beimfohr spotlighted Trey Benson as his Round-11 swing, arguing the sophomore back could force a near-even split with 30-year-old James Conner by October. Beimfohr noted Conner has missed at least two games in five of seven NFL seasons while averaging a punishing 19 touches per week. The Cardinals clearly saw the cliff coming— they spent a third-rounder on Benson last year, then gave him 4.6 YPC on limited work and publicly praised his pass-pro chops this spring. Benson’s rookie tape showed several mini-spike games (8-65-1 vs. LAR, 7-48-1 vs. CHI) that matched the explosive profile he flashed at Florida State. Beimfohr projects Arizona to open 2025 using Benson on roughly 40 % of early downs to preserve Conner, a role that already puts him in weekly RB3/FLEX territory in Best Ball. The real payoff is the contingent upside: if Conner’s body finally betrays him, Benson inherits a top-10 workload in an offense that ranked 11th in red-zone trips after Kyler Murray returned. At an ADP that barely cracks the top-130, Beimfohr sees Benson as the perfect blend of standalone value and league-winning ceiling.

Davis Mattek spotlighted Bhayshul Tuten as his round-11 hammer. Tuten posted the top speed score among running backs at the combine and landed in what Mattek calls a “nutted spot” under new OC Liam Coen. The only backs ahead of him are Tank Bigsby—PFF’s lowest-graded runner in 2023—and Travis Etienne, whom Mattek believes could be a surprise cut given contract dynamics. Coen’s offenses at Kentucky and with the Rams consistently fed one runner 65-plus percent of carries, heightening Tuten’s path to a three-down role. Mattek noted Jacksonville ranked sixth in red-zone trips last season, so any back earning primary duties can rack up touchdowns. At a double-digit-round cost, Tuten offers a legitimate league-winning ceiling if he simply outplays Bigsby in camp.

Davis Mattek cautioned drafters against chasing Brandon Aiyuk’s discounted ADP. Aiyuk is still recovering from a November knee issue and has yet to run routes in OTAs, a delay Mattek blames partly on his contract stalemate. He argued Aiyuk’s profile is fragile: the 49ers have never funneled volume his way—his career-high is just 105 targets—and his fantasy value has always relied on extreme efficiency that cratered late last year. With Jauan Jennings out-snapping him down the stretch and rookie Ricky Pearsall flashing target-earning chops, Mattek sees real risk Aiyuk settles as the third option behind Deebo Samuel and George Kittle. Entering his age-27 season without a clear path to volume, Aiyuk is, in Mattek’s words, “an icky click” even at a two-round discount.

Davis Mattek pegged Brock Purdy as the ideal fallback when the quarterback run dries up. Purdy is often on the board in the back half of round 10 despite finishing 2024 eighth in fantasy points per game and first in EPA per drop-back. Mattek loves that he works as a “catch-all” stack: drafters can pair him late with Christian McCaffrey, George Kittle, Jauan Jennings, or rookie Jacob Cowing without telegraphing the build. Even with San Francisco’s run bias, Purdy averaged 31.7 attempts and a league-best 9.6 YPA, producing five 25-plus point weeks—numbers Mattek sees repeating with all core weapons healthy. He views Purdy as insurance against missing earlier QB tiers while still offering a weekly top-10 ceiling in Best Ball tournaments.

Continuing the Chargers love, Erik Beimfohr spotlighted Justin Herbert as a round-10 cheat code. Herbert is routinely available around pick 120 despite ranking top-6 in both fantasy points per drop-back and passing yards in three of his four NFL seasons. Beimfohr argued drafters are overweighting last year’s fractured finger stretch and underweighting the upgrades: Trey Harris stretches the field, Ladd McConkey is an immediate YAC threat, and the offensive line added two day-one starters. New OC Kellen Moore kept Los Angeles top-10 in PROE, a trend Beimfohr expects to continue given a porous defense that invites shootouts. With affordable stacking partners (Harris round 9, McConkey round 7, Bowers round 6), Herbert offers a clean path to 25-point spike weeks without sacrificing early-round capital, making him his favorite mid-round quarterback bet.

Erik Beimfohr planted his flag on second-round rookie Trey Harris as the premier round-9 upside swing. Harris checked every pre-draft box Beimfohr wanted: day-two capital and a landing spot that needs an outside vertical playmaker. The Chargers lost both Keenan Allen and Quentin Johnston, leaving only Ladd McConkey and aging Mike Williams to command targets. Harris’ 18.7-yard college aDOT and 4.41 speed align perfectly with Justin Herbert’s top-five deep-ball attempt rate. At an ADP just outside the top-100, Harris carries a WR1 ceiling if he merely proves competent—his path to 100+ targets is clearer than most rookies because Los Angeles ran the eighth-highest pass rate over expectation last season. Beimfohr called him the “slam-dunk” rookie pick who can pay off in Week 17 shootouts.

Davis Mattek conceded Travis Kelce looked "actively bad" in 2024 but argued he remains a smash at his round-9 TE7 ADP. Even in a down year Kelce posted 97 receptions and cleared 110 targets for the ninth straight season. Mattek noted Kansas City slipped to 13th in yards per play—their worst finish of the Mahomes era—yet Kelce still produced two nuclear weeks (top-3 among tight ends). He expects the offense to rebound simply by regressing toward its six-year baseline, citing year-2 jumps from Rashee Rice, first-rounder Xavier Worthy, and a healthier Marquise Brown to lift overall efficiency and red-zone chances. In that scenario Kelce does not have to carry the unit; eight touchdowns on his usual volume would likely land him inside the top-4 tight ends. Mattek is happy to “just lock up 110 targets” at a draft cost that once bought Gerald Everett.

Erik Beimfohr reminded listeners that Baker Mayfield quietly finished 2024 as the QB4 overall while Tampa averaged top-10 offensive EPA. Mayfield was less than two fantasy points behind Joe Burrow yet costs four full rounds later (Round 8 vs. Round 4). Beimfohr thinks drafters are anchoring to Mayfield’s name value instead of the numbers: 4,508 passing yards, 33 touchdowns, and a 7.8 YPA that ranked sixth in the league. The entire skill group—Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Emeka Egbuka and Jalen McMillan—returns, and OC Liam Coen kept the aggressive down-field concepts that fueled Mayfield’s breakout. With Tampa’s defense projected bottom-12 in pass DVOA, Beimfohr expects another pass-heavy script and sees a realistic top-five ceiling at an eighth-round cost, calling Mayfield the easiest quarterback click in Best Ball drafts’ old-school QB window.

Davis Mattek made Caleb Williams his Round-8 priority, noting that this is the sweet spot where wide-receiver quality falls off and quarterbacks win drafts. Chicago just removed every excuse: OC Ben Johnson is in the building, the interior line was rebuilt via trades for Joe Thuney and Drew Dalman plus another veteran guard signing, and the pass-catcher group is loaded with Cole Loveland, Luther Burden, Rome Odunze and DJ Moore. Mattek expects a league-average pass rate—massive growth from the Fields era—and believes Williams’ dual-threat skill set can crack a top-five fantasy finish even if that projection is off by a little. If Williams still needs excuses after this season, Mattek says "it’s probably over," but he sees a 25-points-per-game ceiling in Week 17 shootouts and loves landing that upside without spending a top-75 pick.

Erik Beimfohr tabbed Stefon Diggs as the sneaky veteran smash in Round 7. The market hates the profile—31 years old, ACL recovery, new team—but Beimfohr argued all that risk is fully priced into a seventh-round ADP. Positive rehab reports keep trickling in, and New England finally landed a true alpha for No. 3 overall pick Drake Maye. With the rest of the Patriots’ receiver room consisting of dart-throws like Pop Douglas and rookie Kyle Williams, Beimfohr projects double-digit weekly targets for Diggs once he is up to speed. Diggs still posted a 26 % target share before last year’s Buffalo mess, and historical comps show veterans tethered to top-three rookie quarterbacks often smash. Beimfohr acknowledged the possibility Diggs opens on PUP—he thinks that news would only make the price sweeter—but believes the risk/reward is outstanding for a player who could be Maye’s first-read on every high-leverage play.

Davis Mattek called Caleb Johnson the slam-dunk Round-7 hammer for best-ball drafters still hunting an RB2. The 220-pound Iowa product out-gained the entire Hawkeye passing game in 2024 and still finished second in the FBS with 861 breakaway rushing yards despite a disappointing forty time. Mattek thinks the fit in Pittsburgh is perfect: Arthur Smith’s offense will almost certainly rank 32nd in PROE, Mike Tomlin loves reliable grinders, and the only real competition is 208-pound change-of-pace back Jaylen Warren. With quarterback play likely shaky (Will Howard, Mason Rudolph or a Hail-Mary Rodgers trade), Smith will lean on the run, creating a plausible scenario where Johnson sees 25-plus December carries and spikes in the fantasy playoffs. Mattek compared him to ‘Brian Robinson with juice’ and believes his combination of bell-cow build, breakaway ability, and seventh-round ADP makes him a potential league-winner before summer ADP catches up.

Erik Beimfohr targeted Chris Godwin as a screaming Round-6/7 value, reminding listeners that before dislocating his ankle last season Godwin was the WR2 overall—less than a point per game behind Ja'Marr Chase. Tampa’s offense remains "awesome," and Beimfohr argued every fear (age 30, the ankle, first-round rookie Emeka Egbuka, third-rounder Jalen McMillan) is fully baked into a price that would otherwise sit at the 2⁄3 turn. Godwin’s 2024 rebound to 2.36 yards per route—after three straight seasons around 1.75—shows he can still win from the slot when actually deployed there. Beimfohr acknowledged the downside scenarios Davis Mattek later outlined: if the Bucs push Godwin outside again or run a Chiefs-like rotation with all four wideouts playing 65 % of routes, his ceiling evaporates. Still, he believes Tampa will keep the veteran in his high-efficiency slot role while Egbuka and McMillan develop, making the current price a bet-the-logo situation where Godwin’s proven WR1 upside far outweighs the injury and usage risks.

Davis Mattek said George Pickens is the Round-6 pick he is jamming before the ADP spikes. Pickens finally escapes Pittsburgh’s quarterback purgatory and lands opposite CeeDee Lamb in a Dak Prescott offense that has produced a QB1 season and multiple 4,500-yard campaigns. Mattek projects Dallas to stay pass-heavy because their defense is still leaky and Javonte Williams is an inefficient lead back, opening the door for a Lamb 30 % target share and a surprisingly attainable 28 % share for Pickens. With half his games now inside AT&T Stadium, Pickens gains dome-controlled scoring environments plus better quarterback accuracy on his trademark down-field shots. Mattek highlighted Pickens’ career 13.7-yard aDOT and 33-38 % contested-catch rates as ingredients for a blow-up touchdown season—despite just 12 career TDs so far, variance could easily swing his way. He admitted risks (Cowboys O-line, Dak injury, possibility Pickens is simply “dust”) but called the risk-reward “insane” and urged best-ball drafters to scoop shares before summer camp chatter pushes him into Round 5.

Davis Mattek called Jaylen Waddle a "super-boring" but wildly mispriced Round-5 pick. Waddle’s worst season in 2024—72-1,003-4 on only 105 targets—still produced WR32 numbers, and Mattek noted that even a 20 % bump on that line would push him back inside the top-20 wideouts. The Dolphins have averaged 30.6 points in games where Tua Tagovailoa and both starting receivers are healthy, so Mattek thinks all Waddle needs is a healthy season rather than a dramatic role change. He compared him to an "Anthony Davis" type who frequently limps off but still posts nuclear weeks—highlighting Waddle’s 35-point explosion in Week 9 last year. With drafters now selecting him more than two rounds later than 2024’s second-round ADP, Mattek believes the boundary for mattering is extremely low, making Waddle a rock-solid floor play who can still win weeks if the Dolphins offense takes even a modest step forward.

Erik Beimfohr said DeVonta Smith is a glaring Round-4 bargain because the market has over-corrected after last season’s disappointment. Smith sometimes lasts to pick 50 on DraftKings despite a fully consolidated Eagles passing attack that funnels almost every target to A.J. Brown, Smith, and Dallas Goedert. Beimfohr argued that drafters are ignoring Smith’s baked-in floor—he has finished no worse than WR21 in any of the last three years while never dipping below a 23 % target share when Brown was absent. He also highlighted Smith’s contingent upside: if Brown were to miss time, Philadelphia does not shift targets to depth receivers like Johnny Wilson; they simply condense them to Smith and Goedert, a pattern we already saw during Brown’s injury games last season. With Jalen Hurts expected to regress back toward 500 pass attempts, Beimfohr believes Smith’s 140-target ceiling is very much alive, making him an easy click in the mid-fourth round of Best Ball drafts.

Davis Mattek named Breece Hall the best value in Round 4 and thinks the market is punishing Hall too harshly for missing last year’s first-round expectations. Even in what many remember as a ‘down’ season Hall racked up 1,400 scrimmage yards, eight touchdowns and 76 targets. Mattek projects around 60 targets in 2025—enough to matter, especially because the Jets’ current WR2 depth chart reads Josh Reynolds and (maybe) Allen Lazard. He cited research that offenses with rushing quarterbacks gain roughly half a yard per carry for their running backs, a boost Hall will now enjoy. Mattek also floated a non-zero chance New York trades him to a creative offense like Chicago, which would be an immediate smash. Bottom line: a player who once warranted a first-round ADP is now priced in the mid-fourth despite elite receiving chops, home-run rushing talent, and almost no competition for touches. Mattek is scooping as much exposure as he can.

Davis Mattek said Rashee Rice is a slam-dunk Round-3 buy because the two things scaring drafters—his knee and the Dallas street-racing case—look overblown. Public medical reports say Rice would be healthy enough to play today, and attorney Drew Davenport noted the criminal charge is not even on a docket while the civil trial set for June will almost certainly get pushed. Mattek expects any NFL suspension to be short, reminding best-ball managers that Week 17 exposure matters more than September snaps. He pointed to Rice’s outrageous late-season usage: over the final three games he averaged 21.5 fantasy points, trailed only Puka Nacua in rookie yards-per-route-run, and earned targets at a Drake London–level clip while sharing the field with Xavier Worthy. Playing every playoff week with Patrick Mahomes, Rice carries true league-winning upside, and Mattek called him the easiest third-round click on the board.

Erik Beimfohr labeled CeeDee Lamb the best first-round value. Lamb’s 2024 eruption—highlighted by two most-efficient games with backup quarterbacks—proved he is QB-proof and matchup-proof. Despite running mates like Jalen Tolbert, KaVontae Turpin and Ryan Flournoy, Lamb still soaked up elite usage and refused to leave the field even while injured. Beimfohr loves the bankable floor/ceiling combo and notes that Lamb’s ADP is a tick cheaper than Justin Jefferson or Ja’Marr Chase, sometimes sliding past them entirely. He even prefers Lamb over Chase in certain builds, calling him an easy click in early best-ball drafts.

Davis Mattek argued that Justin Jefferson should be the 1.01 in every best-ball draft and even recommended taking 50-100% exposure in large field contests. Jefferson averages ten more receiving yards per game than Ja'Marr Chase and benefits from playing nine games a year indoors. Mattek highlighted Kevin O’Connell’s track record—top-10 in yards per attempt and passing touchdowns in every season he has called plays—and said those offensive principles matter more than whoever starts at quarterback. Jefferson was elite with Nick Mullens and Sam Darnold in 2024, so Mattek is unfazed by rookie J.J. McCarthy. He also expects the Vikings’ defense to regress, forcing pass volume back up. All that adds up to Jefferson owning unmatched weekly and season-long ceiling, making him a slam-dunk first overall pick.

Davis Mattek said that drafters are sleeping on A.J. Brown at his current WR10 price tag because the factors that capped his 2024 numbers are unlikely to repeat. He pointed out that Jalen Hurts’ pass attempts plummeted from 538 to 361 last season; Mattek is projecting a middle-ground 450 attempts over 15-16 games. Giving Hurts that volume bump alone pushes Brown from last year’s meager 97 targets in 13 games—50 fewer than Wan’Dale Robinson—to a 120-130 target range. In an offense that remains hyper-efficient, that extra volume would have driven Brown well inside the top five, so Mattek expects people to look back next year and laugh that Brown ever slipped to the late first/early second. He’s aggressively drafting Brown in best-ball as a clear buy.

Pat Kerrane tagged rookie Woody Marks as a sneaky late-round running-back target after Houston traded up to secure him in Round 4. Kerrane emphasized that Marks is "a straight-up third-down back"—a designation that locks him into the passing-down role immediately while leaving Joe Mixon to handle early downs and goal-line work. With the Texans fielding C.J. Stroud and a deep receiver corps, Kerrane anticipates high play volume and plenty of check-down opportunities, especially behind an offensive line he called "bad" and likely to force Stroud into quick outlets. He projected a 40–50 catch ceiling for Marks, enough to deliver spike PPR weeks at his current undrafted status in Best Ball contests.

Rob Coakley reiterated that he is actively taking the rookie Tuten ahead of Najee Harris whenever the choice pops up in the middle rounds. He believes Tuten’s ADP is about to leap into the 8th on Drafters because OC Ryan Cohen has no allegiance to Travis Etienne or Tank Bigsby, and Coakley already views Etienne as the most likely odd-man-out. In a cumulative-scoring format, the rookie’s clean path to fresh-legs upside and three-down work if he impresses in camp outweighs Harris’ capped receiving role and Pittsburgh’s run-heavy slog that offers little week-to-week eruption. Coakley wants to plant a flag before the market fully prices in Tuten’s takeover potential and is comfortable leaving every draft with a meaningful overweight position.

Erik Beimfohr said Dont'e Thornton is a perfect last-round dart on DraftKings. The rookie speedster logged 3.72 yards per route run at Tennessee in 2024 and 2.6 the year prior, flashing big-play chops despite only 94 career targets. Las Vegas invested fourth-round capital to let him fill Trey Tucker’s vacated deep-threat role; Tucker finished fifth league-wide in routes run last year, so the boundary spot rarely leaves the field. With defenses tilted toward Jacobi Meyers and rookie Brock Bowers, Thornton should see single coverage and have a clear runway to one-or-two-catch spike weeks that matter in Best Ball tournaments. Beimfohr is happily scooping him in Round 19/20 as cheap exposure to a Raiders offense that now pairs Geno Smith’s aggressiveness with Pete Carroll’s vertical ethos.