Michael Harrison said Michael Thorbjornsen is the first name on his betting card at +3800 to win the Texas Children’s Houston Open. Harrison pointed out that Thorbjornsen already owns five top-5 finishes in the past year, including a T-3 at the WM Phoenix Open where he missed a playoff by one shot. Two weeks ago he played in the final group at the Players Championship before sliding to T-22 after a rough Sunday, which Harrison views as another sign the breakthrough is close. Because oddsmakers still list a dozen players shorter than Thorbjornsen, Harrison loves the near-40-1 price and believes the young American is “destined to break through” this week.

Michael Harrison recommended sprinkling a few dollars on Alejandro Tosti at +57500. Tosti has struggled in 2026, making his first cut in seven starts only last week (T-30 at the Valspar). However, his course history at Memorial Park is outstanding: T-2 and T-5 the past two years. Harrison called the Argentinian a clear 'horse for this course' and said that while winning might be a stretch, his past success makes him attractive in outrights and top-5/10/20 derivative markets at this enormous number.

Michael Harrison advised taking a flier on Gary Woodland at +11500. Woodland comes off his best finish of 2026 (T-14 at the Valspar) and nearly won this event last year, finishing runner-up to Min Woo Lee. He also posted top-25 and top-10 results in the two previous Houston Opens, demonstrating comfort at Memorial Park. Harrison added that a victory would be a feel-good story after Woodland revealed he is dealing with PTSD from his 2023 brain surgery, making him an easy player to root for at triple-digit odds.

Michael Harrison recommended betting Sungjae Im outright at +5700. Im led last week’s Valspar heading into Sunday but stumbled with a 74 and finished T-4. Harrison noted that Im’s ability to take the 54-hole lead on a brutal Copperhead layout shows his game is in great shape, and he expects a quick rebound at Memorial Park. With the marketplace still pricing him near 57-1, Harrison sees strong value on a proven two-time PGA Tour winner who was “playing tremendous golf” before one bad round.

Michael Harrison highlighted David Lipsky at +18500 as a lottery-ticket outright. Lipsky pushed Matt Fitzpatrick all the way to the finish before settling for second at the Valspar, his fourth top-5 in the past year. Harrison drew a parallel to Fitzpatrick, who bounced from runner-up at the Players to a win the very next week, suggesting Lipsky could follow the same script. Still hunting for his first PGA Tour trophy, Lipsky’s recent contention and long odds make him worth a small stake.

Michael Harrison recommended monitoring Sahith Theegala in the outright (+9600) and top-10/20 markets. After a down 2025 season, Theegala has started 2026 with four top-25 finishes in five events, including two top-10s. At Bay Hill he logged a T6 in 2024 and T14 in 2023, showing clear course comfort. Harrison believes the combination of early-season resurgence and proven API performance makes Theegala an intriguing value play across finishing markets.

Harrison included Michael Thorbjornsen at +7600, citing the young star’s elite iron game. Over the last 24 PGA Tour rounds, no player has gained more strokes on approach than Thorbjornsen. He has posted five top-5 finishes in the past year and missed the WM Phoenix Open playoff by a single stroke two starts ago. Harrison believes those ball-striking numbers give Thorbjornsen legitimate winning upside at a big number.

Michael Harrison targeted Nicolai Hojgaard at +6700, stressing that the Dane’s first PGA Tour win feels imminent. Hojgaard tied for 3rd in Phoenix after leading late and has racked up six worldwide top-5 finishes since last April. He has placed inside the top-15 in six of his past eight starts, highlighted by a T6 at last week’s Cognizant Classic. Harrison views that sustained high-end form as value at this price in the outright market.

Michael Harrison opened his betting card with Matt Fitzpatrick at +2600 to win the 2026 Arnold Palmer Invitational. Harrison pointed to four straight top-10 finishes at Bay Hill from 2019-22 (including a runner-up in 2019) and six career top-15s at the venue. Fitzy arrives in solid form after winning the 2025 DP World Tour Championship and starting 2026 with a top-10 in Phoenix, a top-15 at Pebble Beach, and a top-25 at Riviera. Statistically he ranks 4th in strokes gained: approach and 5th tee-to-green on the PGA Tour this season, numbers Harrison believes will have him squarely in the mix on Sunday.

Harrison endorsed Kurt Kitayama at +4300, noting the momentum from a closing-round 64 that vaulted him to a runner-up finish at the Genesis Invitational two weeks ago. Kitayama lifted the trophy at Bay Hill in 2023 and added the 3M Open title last summer, giving him a proven winning ceiling. Harrison said the number could drift longer before Thursday but believes Kitayama’s combination of recent form and past success at the Arnold Palmer Invitational makes him a live long-shot worth backing.

Harrison flagged Davis Riley at +25000 outright and especially in top-10/20 markets after Riley led the Sony Open by two shots through 54 holes and ultimately finished T-6. Riley ranked first in putting that week, an encouraging sign for an event Harrison calls 'essentially a putting contest.' The combination of recent confidence with the flat stick and long odds makes Riley a high-ceiling punt for placement bets.

Calling the number a misprice, Harrison recommended Chris Kirk at +20000. Kirk missed the cut in Hawaii but finished inside the top-10 in two of his final three starts of 2025 and tied for third at this event in 2023, showing both recent form and course fit. Harrison believes those credentials should peg Kirk far shorter than 200-1 in a tournament that rewards streaky scorers.

Harrison highlighted Daniel Berger at +7500, citing the golfer’s scorching stretch from late 2024 to mid-2025 that featured two runner-up finishes and a third place. Although Berger cooled late last season, he jump-started 2026 with a T-6 at the Sony Open, closing with a 64 that tied for the second-best round of the day—evidence his iron play and scoring ceiling are returning in time for another low-scoring shootout.

Harrison listed Michael Thorbjornsen at +5000 as his first value play, noting the phenom already owns runner-up finishes at the 2024 John Deere and 2025 Corales plus three additional top-5s last year. Thorbjornsen ranked eighth on tour in birdie average in 2025, a critical stat for an event that annually turns into a putting-friendly birdie fest.

Michael Harrison opened his card with Sepp Straka at +3500, arguing the defending champion is undervalued despite longer odds than the top nine names on the board. Harrison pointed out Straka collected seven top-10 finishes last season, most recently a solo third at the Hero World Challenge. The Austrian ranked inside the top-15 in birdie average and owns four PGA Tour victories since 2022, evidence of proven closing ability in low-scoring shootouts like this event, where every winner has reached at least 20-under since the format change.

Michael Harrison highlighted Nico Echavarria at +5000 as impossible to ignore. The Colombian lost this event in a playoff in 2025, was T-4 at the RSM Classic in his most recent start, and owns three top-15 finishes in his last four outings. Over the past 12 rounds at Waialae he sits 6th in total strokes gained and strokes-gained: putting. With two PGA Tour wins in 2023 and 2024 already on the ledger, Harrison believes Echavarria’s course comfort and recent form make him a mis-priced outright and top-10 play.

Michael Harrison called Nick Dunlap a boom-or-bust lottery ticket at +19000. Dunlap captured a PGA title as a 20-year-old amateur in 2024 and added another win that same season, but struggled through most of 2025 before finishing with a T-8 at the World Wide Technology Championship. Against what Harrison terms a middling Sony Open field, he believes Dunlap’s ceiling makes him worth a stab in both outright and top-10/20 markets.

Michael Harrison recommended sprinkling Tony Finau at +11000 despite a down 2025 season that featured only five top-20 finishes. Finau is still a six-time PGA Tour champion who would normally reside near the top of the odds board if in form. Harrison argued the skill discount has gone too far and that Finau’s upside justifies a speculative outright wager at triple-digit odds.

Michael Harrison tabbed Matt McCarty at +6000 as a strong value bet. The 2024 Black Desert Championship winner produced nine top-20 finishes last season and closed 2025 with four worldwide top-15s in five starts, including a T-3 in Utah and T-8 in Australia. Over the last 24 measured rounds he ranks 7th in strokes-gained: putting and 15th in total strokes gained. Harrison thinks that combination of a red-hot putter and sustained form gives McCarty legitimate winning equity at long-shot odds.

Michael Harrison said he is opening his betting card with Hideki Matsuyama at +2000, calling that price a market mistake. The 2022 Sony Open champion ranks 1st in both total strokes gained and strokes-gained: approach at Waialae over the last 24 rounds. Matsuyama has not finished outside the top-30 in any of his last 12 starts and ended 2025 with three straight top-7s. With 11 PGA Tour victories already on the resume, Harrison is bullish on Matsuyama securing win number 12 and advised an outright wager at the current number.

Michael Harrison took a speculative stab on Nick Dunlap at a massive +50000, acknowledging the youngster’s volatile profile but elite upside. Dunlap stunned the golf world with two PGA Tour wins as a 20-year-old amateur in 2024, yet struggled throughout 2025. Harrison argued that against a shallow field where any hot week can win, Dunlap’s ceiling outweighs recent misses. He suggested pairing the outright ticket with top-10 and top-20 wagers, viewing Dunlap as the classic boom-or-bust lottery piece that can pay off big in Fall Series events.

Michael Harrison labeled Justin Lower a "live longshot" at +15000. Lower enters off a T-3 finish in Utah, his best result of 2025, and pairs that momentum with strong course history: a top-25 here in 2023 followed by a co-runner-up last year, missing the title by a single stroke. Harrison believes Lower’s recent spike with the flat stick plus his proven comfort on El Cardonal’s generous fairways create a legitimate path to victory, justifying an outright flyer at 150-1.

Michael Harrison advised sprinkling Carson Young at +11000 despite the American’s lukewarm recent form, citing an unrivaled course résumé. Young finished 9th at El Cardonal in 2023 and was co-runner-up in 2024; over the past two editions he ranks 1st in total strokes gained at this venue. Harrison argued that familiarity with the tricky Paspalum greens and coastal winds gives Young a ceiling few in this weak field can match, making triple-digit odds too tempting to ignore.

Michael Harrison recommended Mackenzie Hughes at +6000, stressing that the Canadian’s best golf historically comes during the Fall Series. Hughes owns two PGA Tour victories—both in autumn events—and arrives on the heels of a T-7 finish two starts ago, his fourth top-10 of 2025 that includes a playoff loss in Myrtle Beach. Harrison also highlighted course comfort: Hughes finished T-7 at this tournament in 2023. With proven closing ability, recent form, and a track record of thriving when bigger names take weeks off, Harrison views Hughes as undervalued in outright markets.

Sascha Paruk relayed the model’s Packers -2.5 pick while acknowledging its brutal 0-8 record when it has touched Philadelphia spreads. He still sided with the computer, arguing that the same fade-Eagles approach has been cashing for months and expecting the skid to reach nine straight miscues feels riskier than riding the trend.

Sascha Paruk endorsed the algorithm’s Under 51.5 recommendation, stressing that the model owns a 7-2 record on Commanders totals while faring just 3-5 on Detroit. With that 78% hit rate on Washington Over/Unders, Paruk believes this is one of the rare spots where trusting the struggling system still makes sense.

Sascha Paruk backed the model’s call on Jacksonville +1.5, pointing out the software’s 6-2 ATS mark on Jaguars action compared to a middling 4-4 split on Houston. The algorithm’s broader numbers are ugly, but this matchup falls into the select bucket where its past reads have been reliably profitable.

Sascha Paruk highlighted the A.I. laying 5.5 with Indianapolis on the neutral field in Berlin, noting a perfect storm of historical edges: the tool is 7-2 when picking Colts spreads and a disastrous 0-8 when trying to time Falcons sides. Rather than fight the trend, Paruk advised riding with the computer’s strongest ATS performer (Indy) against the team it has whiffed on every single week (Atlanta).

Sascha Paruk said the in-house model is backing New England +2.5 and reminded readers that the A.I. has absolutely crushed Patriots sides this season, cashing eight of nine ATS calls involving Bill Belichick’s club. While the system’s overall NFL record sits at a bleak 60-74, its Pats read has been money, whereas Tampa Bay sits at just 5-3 against the number in those same model picks. Paruk framed the wager as the clearest spot to lean on the data because it is the one team the algorithm consistently understands.

Paruk warned that Josh Jacobs’ 78.5 rushing-yard prop is too rich. The veteran back managed only 66 yards on 19 totes (3.5 YPC) in Week 1 and now faces a Washington front that just limited the Giants to 64 rushing yards. With Green Bay likely to sprinkle in A.J. Dillon and potentially play from ahead, Paruk doubts Jacobs sees the efficiency or volume needed to flirt with 80 yards.

Paruk called Over 53.5 receiving yards for Deebo Samuel a strong look. Washington funnels him bubble screens, slants, and jet motion touches that let him pile up yards after the catch. Against a Packers defense that concedes underneath volume to limit deep shots, Paruk expects Samuel’s manufactured opportunities and tackle-breaking ability to push him into the mid-60s.

Paruk leaned Under 1.5 passing touchdowns on Jayden Daniels at –151. Washington attempted only 26 passes in its opener and figures to keep the ball on the ground to protect a shaky line. With Green Bay’s secondary healthy and a disruptive edge rush waiting, Paruk doubts Daniels will see enough red-zone drop-backs to reach two scoring throws.

Calling the TD prop the sharper angle, Paruk grabbed Over 1.5 passing touchdowns for Jordan Love at –118. Love was hyper-efficient in Week 1 and piloted four red-zone drives without a misfire. Paruk trusts Matt LaFleur’s motion-heavy red-zone package—71% TD rate since last season—to generate at least two short-area scores despite Washington’s respectable between-the-20s defense.

Paruk endorsed Over 45.5 rushing yards for Jayden Daniels at –111. Washington builds designed keepers into every script, and Daniels’ athleticism is a safety valve when protection breaks down. Paruk expects Green Bay’s aggressive, up-field rush to open scramble lanes and anticipates 8-10 carries—enough volume for Daniels to clear the mid-40s even without a breakaway run.

Sascha Paruk laid the 3.5 points with Green Bay on TNF. He leaned on a stack of trends—Packers are 10-1 straight up as favorites, 4-1 ATS in their last five at Lambeau, and 9-0 when favored by fewer than seven. Paruk expects the Packers’ front (allowed just 2.1 YPC in Week 1) to stonewall Washington’s run-first attack, forcing Jayden Daniels into obvious passing downs where Rashan Gary and company can hunt. He also cited Jordan Love’s Week 1 efficiency within Matt LaFleur’s matchup-driven scheme and the early move from –3 to –3.5 as market confirmation.

Harrison acknowledged Scottie Scheffler’s "machine-like" five-win season makes him a deserving +205 favorite, but he cautioned bettors against laying that pre-tournament price. A +205 outright implies roughly a 33% win probability—a number Harrison considers too rich in a 144-man field, even for the game’s hottest player. He advised either passing on Scheffler altogether or waiting for an in-tournament dip before getting involved.

For those hunting deep flyers, Harrison highlighted Adam Svensson at +30000 outright and as a top-10/20 option. Svensson is fresh off a T-14 two starts ago and opened that event with a sizzling 60. He’s also finished inside the top-15 in each of his last two trips to Silverado, suggesting the track suits his eye. Harrison thinks the Canadian is live to crack leaderboards again and could reward top-20 tickets at juicy prices.

Harrison flagged Tom Kim at a massive +14000, arguing the number is simply too big for a player who piled up three PGA Tour titles before turning 22, the youngest to do so since Tiger Woods. Kim’s 2025 form has been ugly, but Harrison views the outright ticket as a classic buy-low spot on elite talent that only needs one spike week to cash a 140-1 lottery ticket.

At +4500, Harrison called Max Homa a "horse for this course" even after what he labeled a nightmare 2025 season. Homa flashed a pulse when he led the final round of the John Deere Classic before settling for T-5, his best finish of the year. More importantly, he dominated Silverado from 2022-23 with back-to-back wins and followed that up with a T-7 last year. Harrison believes the proven course history makes Homa an enticing bounce-back target at long-shot odds.

Harrison recommended betting Maverick McNealy at +2500, noting the American will be looking to prove a point after being left off the U.S. Ryder Cup roster. McNealy has logged six top-25s in his last nine starts and was solo third at the BMW Championship two tournaments ago, giving him seven top-10s on the year. He also finished runner-up at Silverado in 2021, so he can lean on positive memories while chasing his second PGA Tour victory.

Michael Harrison said he is opening his betting card with Sam Burns at +1800 to win the Procore Championship. Burns tied for 7th the last time he played Silverado in 2021 and has been one of the tour’s steadiest performers since May, rattling off five top-7 finishes—including a playoff loss at the RBC Canadian Open, a T-4 at the BMW Championship, and a T-7 at the Tour Championship. Harrison argued that if the heavy favorite Scottie Scheffler slips, Burns’ current form positions him to collect career win number six at a price that still offers real upside.

Michael Harrison pegged Hideki Matsuyama as his favorite deep dart at +7000. The 2021 Masters champion has made 11 of 12 U.S. Open cuts with four top-10s, including 4th in 2022 and 6th in 2024—his best record at any major. Matsuyama has also recorded three tour wins over the past two seasons, showing he can still close. Harrison advised bettors to take the outright but also back Hideki in top-5/10/20 props, citing his combination of winning pedigree and consistent U.S. Open success.

Michael Harrison called Viktor Hovland a speculative but attractive bet at +6000. While Hovland lacks peak form, he flashed ceiling when he won the Valspar after three missed cuts and has since logged four top-30 finishes in five outings. Harrison reminded readers that the former world No. 3 captured the 2023 FedEx Cup and still possesses elite ball-striking that can pop at any time. At this triple-digit-ish price, Harrison believes Hovland’s ceiling alone justifies a small outright sprinkle and considers him live in the top-20 market.

Michael Harrison highlighted Sepp Straka as a value play at +5000, arguing the market still discounts him because he is "not a sexy name." Straka already owns four PGA Tour wins, two in 2025 alone, and sits 2nd in strokes gained: approach and 3rd in total SG this year. He claimed the Truist Championship three starts ago and followed with a 3rd at the Memorial, proving elite current form. Harrison views those iron numbers as perfect for Oakmont’s demanding greens-in-regulation test and recommends outright and top-10 wagers.

Michael Harrison endorsed Justin Thomas at +4000, noting the two-time PGA champion has rediscovered his best stuff. JT owns a win at the RBC Heritage plus runner-up finishes at the Truist Championship and Valspar this season. Over his last 24 measured rounds he ranks 3rd in strokes gained: putting and 7th in total SG, signals that both his flat stick and all-around game are peaking. Although his last U.S. Open top-10 came in 2020, Harrison believes the current statistical surge outweighs that drought and makes Thomas a plus-EV outright bet.

Michael Harrison said Schauffele is under-priced at +2000 given his remarkable U.S. Open consistency. The X-Man has finished top-15 in all eight career appearances, the longest active streak on tour and trailing only Jack Nicklaus (12) and Sam Snead (9) since WWII. Despite missing time with a rib injury earlier in 2025, he has posted six consecutive finishes of T-28 or better, highlighted by a T-8 at the Masters. Harrison stressed that Oakmont demands distance and Schauffele's length off the tee fits perfectly, making him a live outright threat and a strong top-10 wager.

Michael Harrison suggested taking a stab on Cameron Young at a massive +25000 outright and in top-5/10/20 markets. Young, still winless on tour despite seven career runner-ups, just found form again with a T-7 at the Truist Championship. He owns a T-3 at the 2022 PGA and was runner-up at that year’s Open Championship, proving he can hang on major leaderboards. Harrison believes the number is too big for a player whose ceiling is clearly victory if the putter heats up.

Michael Harrison called Cameron Smith’s +11000 outright odds a clear misprice. Before moving to LIV, Smith climbed to #2 in the world on the back of a 2022 double (Players Championship and Open Championship). He owns nine career top-10s in majors and arrives with three straight top-10s on the LIV circuit, signaling the short game is dialed. Harrison expects bettors to hit this number hard once they remember Smith’s ability to contend in any major setup.

Michael Harrison highlighted Russell Henley at +6500, noting the Georgian already captured the Arnold Palmer Invitational (a signature event) this spring and ranks fifth on tour in total strokes gained for the season. Henley has flashed major chops—T-4 at the 2023 Masters, T-7 at the 2024 US Open, and 5th at last year’s Open Championship—and logged a recent top-10 at the RBC Heritage. With Quail Hollow rewarding precise iron play, Harrison sees Henley’s all-around numbers translating to a serious run at his first major.

Michael Harrison advised grabbing Shane Lowry at +6000, arguing the Irishman is overdue for a win given an absurd 16 top-20 finishes in his last 19 worldwide starts. Lowry just finished runner-up at the Truist Championship despite a balky putter, and he owns five top-12s in his past seven PGA Championships, three of those inside the top-8. Harrison believes even average putting puts Lowry squarely in Sunday contention, making the 60-1 number far too long.