Brian Giuffra played Viktor Hovland at +2000 in the ‘winner without Scheffler’ market. Giuffra admitted Scheffler capping 2025 with a win feels ‘foregone,’ so he pivoted to a hedge that still pays if Scheffler dominates. Referencing Hovland’s elite East Lake history and current ball-striking surge, Giuffra thinks this derivative offers juicy odds on his preferred outright without needing to beat the world No. 1.

Cody Williams doubled down on Viktor Hovland as Top European at +750, reiterating Hovland’s second-best approach numbers over 24 rounds, improved driving accuracy, and four straight weeks gaining with the putter. With Rory shorter in the market and Jon Rahm absent, Williams sees Hovland as the clear value among Europeans.

John Schwarb played Cameron Young Top-5 at +450. Keegan Bradley announces captain’s picks next week, and Schwarb believes Young’s Wyndham win put him on the bubble. A big showing at East Lake would all but punch his ticket to Bethpage. The added stakes plus his ceiling tee-to-green make +450 enticing.

Brian Kirschner bet Harry Hall to finish better than 16.5th at –125. Hall has been ‘on a heater,’ and Kirschner trusts his elite putting to beat at least half the 30-player field. Recent ball-striking uptick plus a red-hot flat stick give Hall multiple paths to cash this placement prop.

Iain MacMillan grabbed Justin Thomas Top-5 at +300, arguing that East Lake has been Thomas’ personal ATM. He has finished ninth or better every time he’s teed it up in the Tour Championship, allowing him to ‘lean on experience and confidence’ even while overall form lags. MacMillan believes that course history makes +300 generous in a 30-man field.

Brian Giuffra’s first-round leader ticket is Patrick Cantlay +2200. With Ryder Cup roster debate swirling, Giuffra expects a ‘motivated Cantlay’ on a course where he owns strong history. East Lake is one of the tour’s longest tracks, and Cantlay is currently driving it long. Giuffra conceded Cantlay needs more fairways but argued that in a one-round sample the combination of length, familiarity and incentive could produce the day-one low score.

John Schwarb wagered on Tommy Fleetwood +1600 to grab the first-round lead. Fleetwood opened with 65 en route to a T4 at the BMW, bettered only by Bob MacIntyre’s 62. Schwarb noted Fleetwood is still searching for PGA Tour win No. 1 but keeps popping early, making him live to blitz East Lake on Thursday even if he fades later.

Brian Kirschner played Hideki Matsuyama +2200 for first-round leader. Matsuyama opened last week 69-64 while ‘hitting the ball great’ before a Saturday 76 derailed his BMW chances. Kirschner thinks that stretch proved the iron play is locked in and expects Matsuyama to fire a low number in round one at East Lake.

For first-round leader, Iain MacMillan took Ben Griffin +2200. Griffin ranks third in the field in true strokes gained in opening rounds over the last three months, trailing only Scheffler and Robert MacIntyre. He also just posted his best iron week of the season, gaining +1.58 strokes per round with his irons at the BMW. MacMillan expects Griffin to ‘come out firing’ again on Thursday at East Lake.

Brian Giuffra’s so-called ‘longshot’ is Viktor Hovland at +3000. Hovland ranks fourth in cumulative strokes gained at East Lake among this week’s field, and he just gained more than two strokes per round on approach at the BMW. Giuffra added that Hovland has been both accurate off the tee and positive with the putter in four straight events, gaining over one stroke per round on the greens here last year. In a 30-player field, Giuffra sees Hovland’s price as simply too long.

John Schwarb tabbed Justin Rose at +5500, emphasizing the veteran’s first start at East Lake since 2019 and his victory at the opening playoff stop in Memphis. With the staggered-start era over, Schwarb thinks Rose’s experience and confidence make his implied rank (22nd per odds) far too low for this 30-man shootout.

Brian Kirschner could not fathom Ben Griffin sitting at 40-1. Griffin has finished T11, T9 and T12 in his last three starts while flashing ‘elite’ approach numbers and a reliable putter on Bermudagrass. Still vying for the final Ryder Cup spot, Griffin’s motivation is sky-high. Kirschner called the wager a ‘no-brainer’ given recent form and surface fit.

Iain MacMillan’s longshot is Harry Hall at +5500. Over the past three months Hall sits fifth in true total strokes gained among the 30 qualifiers, yet his Ryder Cup candidacy is barely mentioned. Fresh off a sixth-place finish last week, Hall brings the kind of all-around form and momentum that can shock a limited-field event. MacMillan believes a win would force Team Europe’s hand and deliver a huge payday for bettors.

Brian Giuffra stayed on Ludvig Aberg at +1800 after cashing a T7 ticket on him at the BMW. Giuffra cited nearly two strokes gained per round both off-the-tee and on approach during Aberg’s last four events, elite indicators for East Lake’s length. Although the Swede struggled with the putter here in 2024, Giuffra pointed to strong results on Bermudagrass at TPC Southwind and Bay Hill as proof the flat stick can cooperate. With the course suiting his power/finesse combo, Giuffra expects a breakout victory.

Cody Williams fired on Viktor Hovland at +3000, arguing the Norwegian ‘turned a corner’ with last week’s T7 at the BMW. Over the last 24 rounds Hovland is second in the field in approach play at East Lake, and his driver finally cooperated at Olympia Fields. Williams highlighted four consecutive tournaments of positive strokes-gained putting and reminded bettors Hovland effectively ‘won’ this event in 2023 at –19 on the shadow leaderboard. With every part of the bag clicking, Williams believes East Lake sets up perfectly for another Hovland payoff.

John Schwarb grabbed Rory McIlroy +850 as the storyline foil to Scottie Scheffler’s dominance. Schwarb reminded readers McIlroy is already a four-time Tour Championship winner (one pre-staggered strokes), eliminating any course-fit doubts. With the Ryder Cup next month, Schwarb expects the Northern Irishman to send a message, especially playing head-to-head with Scheffler in Thursday’s pairing. Proven East Lake pedigree plus extra motivation form the backbone of Schwarb’s outright recommendation.

Brian Kirschner backed Sam Burns at +3000 to win, pointing to Burns’ motivation to lock down a Ryder Cup spot and his comfort on Bermudagrass greens. Burns gained 6.5 strokes off-the-tee and on approach last week at the BMW, evidence the ball-striking is peaking. He has already produced a T9 and T12 at East Lake the past two seasons, showing course fit. Kirschner expects another spike week from a player who has shown he can string strong starts together in 2025.

Iain MacMillan said J.J. Spaun is mis-priced at +2700 to win the Tour Championship. MacMillan noted Spaun ranks fourth in this 30-man field in strokes-gained tee-to-green over the past three months yet sits only eighth on the odds board. He reminded readers Spaun already owns this season’s U.S. Open title and nearly won both the Players and FedEx St. Jude, evidence the moment will not be too big. MacMillan’s take is that the market still doubts Spaun despite elite recent ball-striking, making him a value outright ticket.

Cody Williams sprinkled Kurt Kitayama Top-10 at +250, noting Kitayama ranks third in SG: Approach over the last 24 rounds, is the field’s best at converting birdie or better, and just won the 3M Open before adding a T9 in Memphis. Williams admitted the putter can be a "bugaboo" but believes as long as it’s not actively harmful, the tee-to-green dominance is too strong for Kitayama to finish outside the top fifth of a 49-man field.

Brian Kirschner played Cam Young Top-10 at +225, arguing the New Yorker’s "elite length off the tee" aligns perfectly with Caves Valley’s new par-70 setup, while his current "serious prowess with the flatstick" removes the typical short-game question marks. With Young’s recent form already pointing up, Kirschner sees little reason that trend stops in a trimmed-down field fighting for Tour Championship positioning.

MacMillan doubled down on Cantlay with a Top-5 ticket at +400, citing the T9 last week in Memphis where Cantlay ranked third in strokes gained: approach (+1.81 per round). Returning to a venue he won in 2021, MacMillan believes the combination of dialed-in irons and proven green-reading on these surfaces makes a weekend leaderboard appearance highly probable.

Brian Giuffra chased Sam Burns at +3000 for first-round leader, recalling Burns opened with a 64 en route to eighth place at Caves Valley in 2021, gaining more than one stroke putting per round and nearly a full stroke off the tee that week. Burns is coming off an event where he gained 1.55 strokes putting per round and has registered positive OTT numbers in six of his last eight starts, convincing Giuffra another Thursday 64 is firmly in play.

MacMillan’s first-round-leader dart lands on Harry Hall at +4000 because Hall is second on the PGA Tour in birdie-or-better percentage (25.78%) and third in Round-1 scoring average (68.17). Those early-round fireworks, coupled with a historically hot putter, make Hall a logical candidate to post something in the mid-60s before the firmer greens fully bake out.

Brian Giuffra called Hideki Matsuyama a value long-shot at +5000, explaining that "whatever the hell was going on" mid-season has been fixed. Matsuyama has gained more than three strokes per round on approach across his last two events and turned the putter from liability into positive territory. Giuffra argued Matsuyama is capable of "going low all four rounds," a trait that’s critical in a small field where sustained scoring is mandatory to contend on Sunday.

For a long-shot ticket, Iain MacMillan grabbed Kurt Kitayama at +6000 after noticing the American is "fourth in true strokes-gained tee-to-green over the past three months" and has posted four Top-15 finishes in his last five starts, highlighted by a win at the 3M Open and a T9 at last week’s FedEx St. Jude Championship. MacMillan views that sustained ball-striking plus recent winning experience as a profile that should be nowhere near 60-1 in a 49-man field.

Cody Williams selected Ludvig Aberg at +2500, noting the Swede owns three consecutive Top-25 finishes (two Top-10s) and is "10th in SG: Off-the-Tee" while sitting 11th in Strokes Gained: Approach over his last 24 rounds. Williams emphasized Aberg’s rare combo of distance and accuracy will be even more valuable on a firmer, faster, par-70 Caves Valley. He also pointed out that in a similarly set-up BMW a year ago, Aberg finished T2, arguing "let’s do one better this week" on a course he clearly likes and a statistical profile that mirrors every key metric the panel is targeting.

Brian Kirschner backed Patrick Cantlay outright at +2500, reminding readers Cantlay already "went back-to-back at the BMW" and won the 2021 edition at Caves Valley after a historic putting week. Kirschner argued this season’s "struggles have been overrated": Cantlay gained almost eight strokes on approach last week and has carried elite iron numbers all year. With the renovation tightening fairways and hardening greens, Kirschner expects Cantlay’s precise approach play plus proven course comfort to make another win entirely realistic.

Iain MacMillan said Justin Thomas is his favorite outright bet at +2500 because last week Thomas "gained strokes in all four major areas," a signal the all-around game is finally back. MacMillan highlighted that Thomas ranks fourth on the PGA Tour in birdie-or-better percentage (25.49%), a trait he believes will be "pivotal" if Caves Valley firms up and still rewards aggressive scoring. After several steady but unspectacular months, MacMillan views the across-the-board ball-striking gains as proof Thomas’ ceiling is returning at exactly the right time.

Brian Giuffra wagered on Russell Henley at +2000 in FanDuel’s "Winner without Thomas, Scheffler, Fleetwood, Schauffele" market. Removing four of the five shortest names still leaves Henley—who owns four straight top-10s and glowing iron numbers—at 20-1. Giuffra is hammering Henley all week, citing metrics that suggest genuine win equity even against the full field.

Cody Williams backed Ben Griffin to win FanDuel’s Group C at +350 over Henley, Straka, Conners and Young. Griffin is 12th in SG: Tee-to-Green and 11th in SG: Approach over the past 24 rounds and has been putting lights-out on Bermuda all summer. Williams favors the balanced profile for Southwind’s ball-striking test.

John Schwarb took Aaron Rai to be Top UK/Ireland player at +450. Unlike many Europeans who shut it down post-Links swing, Rai rested just one week before finishing T5 at Wyndham. Schwarb thinks that form carries over against only six other players in this prop, making the third-choice price appealing.

Brian Kirschner bet Brian Harman Top-20 at +200. Harman gained more than 10 strokes ball-striking en route to a T10 at The Open and owns two career top-10s at Southwind. Kirschner sees the tight fairways and Bermuda greens as an ideal setup and believes Ryder Cup motivation adds extra juice.

Iain MacMillan played Cameron Young Top-20 at +140, noting Young’s trademark elite ball-striking is now paired with one of the hottest putters on Tour—he gained 2.62 strokes per round on the greens in last week’s victory. MacMillan is surprised the market is still offering plus money.

Brian Giuffra bet Glover FRL at +6500. He acknowledged Glover’s recent putting woes but pointed out the veteran putted positively when he won here in 2023 and when he finished T3 in 2022. Giuffra expects a comfort-course bounce-back after a missed Wyndham cut.

Cody Williams also grabbed Scheffler FRL at +1100, emphasizing that the Texan leads this field in afternoon-wave scoring average and tees off in the next-to-last group Thursday. Williams likes the FRL number far more than the +280 outright price and is willing to ride Scheffler’s hot start potential.

John Schwarb swallowed +1100 on Scheffler to be Thursday leader, explaining that any double-digit number on the best golfer alive to top a single round is worth the risk. Schwarb simply trusts Scheffler’s week-in, week-out ceiling and prefers the shorter time horizon to the tiny outright price.

Brian Kirschner played Harris English FRL at +4000. English won this event in 2013 and nearly did so again in 2021, leading after 54 holes before finishing one shot shy. Kirschner noted English’s stellar Open showing—beating everyone except the winner—as a sign the form is peaking at the right time.

Iain MacMillan bet Denny McCarthy first-round leader at +5500. McCarthy ranks 4th in this field in opening-round strokes gained (+2.22) and finished top-10 here last year. Fresh off a T11 at Wyndham, MacMillan sees big Thursday upside in a player known for quick starts.

Brian Giuffra took Daniel Berger at +5000. Although Berger’s putter has cooled, Giuffra likes the underlying ball-striking: solid driving and approach numbers, plus past success on Poa greens (T3 RBC Heritage, T2 Phoenix Open). In a shorter field, Giuffra believes Berger’s current tee-to-green form gives him genuine win equity.

Cody Williams also grabbed Glover at 90-1, backing it with hard numbers: 7th in SG: Tee-to-Green and 10th in SG: Approach over the last 24 rounds, plus Top 25 proximity from 150-200 yards. Glover won here in 2023, was T3 in 2022, and gained more than 0.75 strokes putting in both starts—proof Southwind fits his eye even on the greens.

John Schwarb took Lucas Glover at +9000, recalling Glover’s Wyndham/St. Jude back-to-back wins that jump-started last year’s playoffs. Schwarb noted Glover’s trademark iron accuracy appears to be returning and suggested some top players may be rusty after resting post-Open, opening the door for another Glover heater in Memphis heat.

Brian Kirschner is running it back with Chris Kirk at +10000. Kirk gained more than four strokes combined on approach and around the green en route to a T5 last week and profiles perfectly for Southwind: accurate off the tee, elite with the irons, and historically successful on Bermuda greens. Previous finishes of T6 (2016) and T16 (2023) add confidence.

Iain MacMillan tagged Nick Taylor as a 90-1 flyer on FanDuel. Before missing the cut at The Open, Taylor strung together five straight finishes of T23 or better, including a solo 4th at the Memorial. MacMillan believes Taylor has proved he can hang with elite fields and sees value in a limited playoff field.

Brian Giuffra bet Russell Henley outright at +3000, citing four consecutive top-10 finishes and a T6 at Southwind two years ago. Giuffra stressed Henley’s approach numbers have been "on fire" and that his putting traditionally holds up on Poa, giving him the well-rounded profile needed to win this playoff opener.

Cody Williams fired on Viktor Hovland at +3500. He noted Hovland was runner-up here last season, has gained 1.40 strokes per round on approach across his last 12 measured rounds, and ranks fourth in proximity from 150-200 yards over the last 24. Williams added that Hovland is a top-30 putter on fast Bermuda greens and is trending upward with the driver—ideal ingredients for TPC Southwind.

John Schwarb wagered on Xander Schauffele at +1800, arguing the price has drifted only because of Scheffler’s dominance. Schauffele declared he was in "full chase mode" a month ago and has since finished T8 at the Scottish Open and T7 at the British Open. Schwarb also highlighted Schauffele’s solo-second finish at Southwind last year as proof the course fits his eye.

Brian Kirschner grabbed Matt Fitzpatrick at +2800 on DraftKings, noting the Englishman checks every box this week. Fitzpatrick owns strong course history at Southwind, has posted back-to-back top-8 finishes (The Open and Wyndham) and is "playing well in every single facet of the game." Kirschner likes the additional motivation of the playoffs and thinks the market is sleeping on Fitzpatrick’s all-around form.

Iain MacMillan said he is finally swallowing the short number and betting Scottie Scheffler outright at +280 on FanDuel. MacMillan pointed to Scheffler’s second-best approach performance of the entire season at the British Open and the fact he gained more than two strokes per round putting there—fixing the only leak in his game. With elite tee-to-green play already bankable, MacMillan expects Scheffler to be in contention "every single week" and believes the world No. 1 will open the FedExCup Playoffs with a win at TPC Southwind.

Kirschner grabbed Harman Top-20 at +200, arguing the left-hander gained over 10 strokes ball-striking on his way to a T10 at The Open and owns two career top-10s at Southwind. With Ryder Cup motivation and a course that rewards his accuracy, Kirschner believes pricing should be closer to even money.

Giuffra found a creative angle, backing Henley at +2000 in the ‘Winner Without Thomas, Scheffler, Fleetwood, Schauffele’ market. Removing four of the top five favorites still leaves the red-hot Henley, who owns four straight top-10s and ranks among the field’s best in approach and fairways hit, at a longshot price. Giuffra also sprinkled a Top-10 at +195 but views the without-favorites market as the superior leverage play.

Williams selected Griffin to win FanDuel’s Group C at +350 over Henley, Straka, Conners and Young. Griffin ranks 12th in strokes-gained tee-to-green and 11th in approach across the last 24 rounds, and he has been lights-out with the putter on Bermuda surfaces. Williams believes that balanced profile gives Griffin the highest floor-plus-ceiling combo in the mini-pool.