Iain MacMillan recommended Corey Conners at +3300 to win the Memorial, citing the course’s emphasis on precision over length. Conners sits 11th on Tour in driving accuracy, 9th in greens in regulation, and 5th in scrambling from the rough—three stats MacMillan says give him a leg up at Muirfield Village. Conners has posted two top-20 finishes at this event in the last three years and has quietly logged top-20 results in seven of his past eight starts this season. MacMillan views the 33-1 price as clear value for a player whose skill set aligns perfectly with Jack’s Place.

Iain MacMillan advised betting Justin Thomas outright at +1800 for the Memorial. MacMillan pointed out that Thomas ranks second in the entire field in true strokes gained over the last six months and already owns a 2025 victory at the RBC Heritage. The writer believes the market is giving bettors a discount because Thomas missed the cut at the PGA Championship, a result MacMillan is willing to overlook given Thomas’s otherwise strong recent form. MacMillan emphasized Thomas’s elite iron play and expects his approach game to keep him in contention through the weekend at Muirfield Village.

Iain MacMillan labeled Keegan Bradley a misprice at +5500 to win the Memorial. Over the past six months Bradley ranks fifth in the field in strokes gained tee-to-green, gaining an average of +1.63 strokes per round in that department. His main weakness—putting—has kept his number long, but MacMillan argues that a tee-to-green profile that strong should never be listed at 55-1. Bradley is also coming off a T8 finish at the PGA Championship, and as Team USA’s Ryder Cup captain he could bolster his case for a rare player-captain role with a win here. MacMillan sees far more win equity than the odds imply.

Peter Dewey recommended the Cardinals moneyline at –110 because St. Louis has won 7 of its last 10 and faces an Orioles club that is 18-34 overall and 8-15 at home. Baltimore starts Charlie Morton, who owns a 7.68 ERA (10.22 as a starter) and whose team is 0-12 in his 2025 appearances. Erick Fedde (3.77 ERA) gives the Cards a clear pitching edge, and St. Louis also boasts a stronger bullpen while Baltimore’s relievers rank fourth-worst with a 5.46 ERA. Dewey expects the Cardinals’ current surge to continue against Morton and a shaky relief corps.

Peter Dewey advised taking the Giants’ First-5 moneyline at –120, pointing to rookie opener Hayden Birdsong’s 1.91 ERA (3.74 xERA) and the league-best 2.62 bullpen ERA ready to bridge any early exit. Detroit counters with Keider Montero, sporting a 5.28 ERA, 35 hits allowed in 30.2 innings, and four outings of 3+ runs in six tries. Statcast pegs Montero in the 9th percentile for pitching run value and 24th percentile xERA. Dewey trusts San Francisco’s arms to stifle a mediocre Tigers offense while Montero’s struggles dig an early hole.

Peter Dewey said the Red Sox are a worthwhile First-5 innings moneyline play at –160 because ace Garrett Crochet (1.98 ERA) owns elite Statcast marks — 99th percentile pitching run value, 73rd percentile xERA, 84th percentile strikeout rate — and has held opponents to two or fewer earned runs in 10 of 11 starts. Milwaukee’s lineup is just 25th in OPS this season and must rely on extended-opener Chad Patrick, whose Brewers are 4-7 when he pitches and who has gone the full five only five times. Boston’s bats have woken up (7th in runs, 6th in OPS over the past 15 days), so Dewey expects Crochet to secure a lead before either bullpen appears.

John Schwarb targeted Keith Mitchell at +5500 to be first-round leader. Mitchell owns the PGA Tour’s lowest opening-round scoring average this season, making him a Thursday specialist. Schwarb acknowledged Scheffler could also open hot but argued the payoff on Mitchell is far superior for a player who routinely posts red numbers out of the gate.

Vincenzi recommended Christiaan Bezuidenhout Top-10 at +550. The South African gained strokes both off the tee and on approach at the Truist Championship—his first positive ball-striking week of 2024—then followed with his best SG: Approach showing since The Players while finishing 9th in that metric last week at Quail Hollow. Vincenzi believes the return of his iron game plus Colonial’s reduced emphasis on length makes a plus-money Top-10 a sharp play.

MacMillan passed on Scheffler’s short +250 outright price and instead bet him to win wire-to-wire at +1600. Using DataGolf’s true strokes-gained, Scheffler has gained +3.27 true strokes per round over the last six months—1.49 better than the next-closest player in this field (Daniel Berger, +1.78). Given that massive separation, MacMillan sees genuine value in a market where Scheffler simply has to lead after every round rather than just Sunday.

Vincenzi’s preferred long-shot is Gary Woodland at +10000. Despite recent back concerns, Woodland ranks 4th in SG: Total in Texas over his last 36 rounds and finished runner-up at the Houston Open earlier this year. He’s 2-for-5 on top-15s at Colonial and logged a solo 9th in the loaded 2020 edition. If healthy, Vincenzi sees Woodland’s low, penetrating ball flight and proven Lone Star track record translating at a monster price.

MacMillan labeled Alex Smalley a live 90-1 dart. Smalley sits 7th in the field in SG: Tee-to-Green over the past six months and just parlayed that form into a T5 at the Myrtle Beach Classic and T28 at Valhalla. With Colonial favoring precision more than power, MacMillan thinks the market is sleeping on Smalley’s all-around profile in a diluted field.

Brian Giuffra punched an outright ticket on Aaron Rai at +3300. Rai ranks 16th on Tour in SG: Tee-to-Green and 21st in SG: Approach this season, numbers that ballooned to 9th and 3rd respectively at the PGA Championship where he still managed a T19 despite losing strokes putting. Giuffra also referenced Rai’s improving course history (T32 and T12 last two years). On a layout that penalizes errant drives and rewards precise irons, Giuffra believes Rai’s current ball-striking surge can translate into his first PGA Tour win.

Cody Williams grabbed Si Woo Kim +4000 to win. Kim owns four straight top-20 finishes (T8 Quail Hollow, T17 Truist, T15 Byron Nelson, T8 RBC Heritage) and has gained at least 3.2 strokes on approach in all three most recent starts. Williams emphasized Kim’s accuracy off the tee and vastly improved short game—traits that historically decide Colonial. Given that profile and current form, Williams expects Kim to contend deep into Sunday at a bomber-unfriendly track.

John Schwarb went back to Daniel Berger at +2200 after using him as a PGA Championship long-shot. Berger closed the PGA with a Sunday 68 (T33) and now returns to the site of his 2020 victory. Schwarb noted that Berger is still chasing his first win since a lengthy injury layoff but faces a weaker field this week while sitting tied as second choice behind Scheffler. The combination of trending form and proven course history makes Berger his top outright.

Matt Vincenzi fired on Jordan Spieth at +2500, highlighting an elite résumé at Colonial: a 2016 win plus six additional top-10s. Over his last 36 rounds Spieth ranks 1st in Strokes Gained: Total at the course, 5th in SG: Off-the-Tee on high-rough-penalty tracks, 2nd in SG: Total in Texas and 9th in SG: Off-the-Tee overall. Vincenzi believes those numbers, combined with Spieth’s comfort on Bermuda rough corridors, give him as much win equity as anyone not named Scheffler.

Iain MacMillan backed Harris English at +4000 to win Colonial. MacMillan pointed to English's T2 at the PGA Championship where he led the entire field in Strokes Gained: Approach (1.99 per round). Colonial rewards accurate iron play, something English has leaned on throughout his career, and the veteran owns plenty of reps at the layout. MacMillan argued that if anyone can keep pace with red-hot Scottie Scheffler this week, it's the in-form English, making 40-1 too generous.

MacMillan advised betting Aaron Rai outright at +4500 on FanDuel, arguing Colonial’s demand for fairway finding plays directly into the Tour’s most accurate driver. Rai just posted a T19 at the PGA Championship on a bomber-friendly Quail Hollow, yet still ranked 3rd in the field in strokes-gained approach (+1.88). He also logged a T12 at Colonial two years ago. With the course finally matching his skill set and irons dialed in, MacMillan believes it is an ideal spot for Rai to capture his first PGA Tour victory.

MacMillan recommended Harris English at +4000 on FanDuel, pointing to elite recent iron play and strong course history. English is coming off a T2 at the PGA Championship where he led the entire field in strokes-gained approach (+1.99 per round). At Colonial, he finished runner-up in 2016 and T12 last year, results MacMillan says show his precision-first profile fits the course perfectly. With form peaking and proven success at the venue, the 40-1 ticket is labeled a live outright.

Iain MacMillan said the only palatable way to bet the overwhelming favorite is to grab Scottie Scheffler as a wire-to-wire winner at +1600 on DraftKings. Scheffler has gained +3.27 true strokes per round over the last six months, per DataGolf, a full 1.49 strokes better than anyone else in this field (next best: Daniel Berger at +1.78). He has finished top-3 at Colonial in each of the past three years and arrives off back-to-back victories won by a combined 13 shots. MacMillan noted the relatively weak, non-signature-event field leaves no one “playing close to the level of Scheffler,” making 16-1 worth laying for four straight rounds of front-running.

Iain MacMillan said bettors willing to embrace variance should sprinkle on Niklas Norgaard Moller at +30000 to win the PGA Championship. MacMillan’s argument hinges on driving distance being the single most important stat at a rain-softened Quail Hollow, forecasting a bomb-and-gouge setup. Norgaard ranks 2nd on the PGA Tour in driving distance at 319.6 yards, trailing only Aldrich Potgieter, who is not in the field. That average is a full yard longer than Rory McIlroy’s. The Danish rookie also flashed form with a T5 at last week’s Myrtle Beach Classic and owns a DP World Tour victory from last September’s British Masters, showing he can close. MacMillan acknowledged the outright is a massive stretch but sees enough ceiling in Norgaard’s length-driven skill set and current confidence to justify a small wager at + odds that imply a 0.33% win probability.

Iain MacMillan suggested a Top 20 wager on Taylor Pendrith at +360 instead of chasing his 150-1 outright. Although Pendrith owns only one top-20 in his last nine starts, Quail Hollow suits his strengths: he ranks 9th in true strokes gained off the tee among the world’s top 150 players over the past six months, just behind Scottie Scheffler. He is also inside the PGA Tour’s top 50 in approach proximity from 200+ yards, a crucial yardage on the par-4s and par-5s here. Pendrith finished T10 at last year’s Wells Fargo on this course, giving him proven comfort on the layout. Given the fit and previous result, MacMillan believes the +360 price for a top-20 finish is undervalued.

MacMillan recommended taking Min Woo Lee at 90-1 to win, or grabbing his +230 top-20 and +115 top-30 props. Lee ranks 4th on the PGA Tour in driving distance, a key metric at Quail Hollow’s lengthy layout with forgiving fairways. Over the past six months he sits 9th in true strokes gained around the green and 17th in putting, giving him the short-game safety net many bombers lack. He already owns a 2024 victory (Texas Children’s Houston Open) and profiles perfectly for the setup despite having no prior starts at Quail. The analyst sees the combination of elite length and well-rounded short game as justification for the triple-digit outright ticket.

Iain MacMillan said Bryson DeChambeau is his preferred outright bet at +1200, arguing the Quail Hollow setup rewards elite length off the tee. DeChambeau leads the planet in true strokes gained off the tee at +1.97 per round, +0.8 better than second-place Rory McIlroy per DataGolf. His approach play is trending up as well—he gained +1.27 strokes per round with his irons en route to a win at LIV Korea after contending at the Masters. DeChambeau has positive course history, finishing solo 4th at the 2018 Wells Fargo and T9 in 2021 on the same track. MacMillan believes that combination of fit, recent ball-striking, and the 12-1 number offers far more value than the shorter odds on Scottie Scheffler or McIlroy.

Iain MacMillan advised narrowing outright tickets to Scottie Scheffler (+450), Rory McIlroy (+500) or Bryson DeChambeau (+1100), arguing that "someone else would have to play the best tournament of their career" to beat them at Quail Hollow. He cited three pillars for the take: (1) Course fit—Quail Hollow rewards dominant driving, and the trio are the top three drivers on tour; (2) Recent form—each player is fresh off a victory (Scheffler at the CJ Cup Byron Nelson, McIlroy at the Masters, DeChambeau at the LIV Korea event); and (3) DataGolf metrics—the same trio ranks 1-2-3 in true strokes-gained tee-to-green over the past six months. Because the betting board drops from +500 to +1100 after McIlroy, MacMillan is comfortable allocating his entire outright card to this "Big Three" rather than sprinkling on longshots.

Iain MacMillan called Bryson DeChambeau the best value on the PGA Championship outright board at +1100. He pointed out that Quail Hollow favors bombers and DeChambeau, along with Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy, is "one of the three best drivers on the planet." DataGolf’s true strokes-gained tee-to-green numbers over the past six months back that up, with DeChambeau ranking third behind only Scheffler and McIlroy. Unlike those two, however, DeChambeau’s odds are more than double, giving bettors a superior payout for virtually the same statistical profile. MacMillan also emphasized DeChambeau’s red-hot form after winning last weekend’s LIV event in Korea, saying the American is peaking at exactly the right time for Quail Hollow.

Iain MacMillan highlighted Bryson DeChambeau as the clear No. 3 betting option at +1100 and argued the big-hitting American offers the best value of the Big 3. DeChambeau ranks third in true strokes gained tee-to-green over the last six months, matching Quail Hollow’s demand for aggressive drivers. He also arrives off a victory at last weekend’s LIV event in Korea, signaling peak form. Given the sizable gap in price between DeChambeau and the two shorter favorites, MacMillan believes Bryson’s outright ticket delivers the most attractive risk-reward profile of the trio.

Iain MacMillan noted Rory McIlroy sits directly behind Scheffler at +500 to win the PGA Championship and believes the number is fair because Quail Hollow accentuates McIlroy’s elite driving—he ranks No. 2 in true strokes gained tee-to-green over the past six months. McIlroy’s confidence is sky-high after finally bagging the Masters, giving him back-to-back realistic shots at majors. With the course demanding power off the tee and McIlroy trending in the right statistical direction, MacMillan expects him to be in the thick of it Sunday and views him as a co-favorite worth an outright ticket.

Iain MacMillan said Scottie Scheffler is a justifiable +450 favorite (18.18% implied) to win the PGA Championship because Quail Hollow rewards dominance with the driver and Scheffler currently ranks No. 1 in true strokes gained tee-to-green over the last six months (DataGolf). Scheffler is coming in hot off his first win of the season at the CJ Cup Byron Nelson, reinforcing both form and course fit. MacMillan thinks someone will need the best week of their career to keep the Big 3—led by Scheffler—from lifting the Wanamaker Trophy, making Scheffler a playable outright despite the short number.

Brian Giuffra took Brian Harman Top-20 at +200 because the lefty regularly thrives when weather turns sour, as evidenced by his Genesis top-20 during difficult conditions. Harman’s accurate driving, bentgrass putting pedigree and 19th-ranked proximity stats all set up well for a soggy Wissahickon.

Cody Williams sprinkled Ryan Gerard Top-30 at +150, arguing the market is ignoring Gerard’s recent surge—three top-12 finishes in four starts prior to last week. On a short course that rewards short-game artistry and solid approach numbers, Williams thinks Gerard cracking the top half of the signature-event field is well within range.

Brian Kirschner wagered Daniel Berger Top-20 at +130 after noting Berger has finished inside the top 20 in five of his last eight PGA Tour starts. Kirschner believes another big finish at an elevated event would bolster Berger’s Ryder Cup candidacy and likes his steady tee-to-green play to navigate Wissahickon.

John Schwarb paired his FRL play with Denny McCarthy Top-10 +360, trusting the Tour’s short-game wizard on a layout where nobody owns course reps. With signature-event FedExCup points on the line, Schwarb sees McCarthy’s putting carrying him into late-Sunday contention.

Matt Vincenzi doubled down on Patrick Cantlay with a Top-10 ticket at +400. Over his last 24 rounds Cantlay ranks 6th in SG: Approach and 15th off-the-tee, ideal traits for a course where precise placement precedes tricky putts. Vincenzi expects Cantlay to be firmly in the mix all weekend.

Iain MacMillan grabbed Alex Noren Top-20 at +300 in his first PGA Tour start since last October. MacMillan reminded bettors that Noren finished 12th on Tour in total strokes-gained last season and wants to see if he flashes 2024 form now that he’s healthy after a leg injury.

Brian Giuffra chose Brian Harman +5000 FRL saying the softer Thursday conditions will reward his laser-like accuracy. Harman, fresh off a win at the Valero, ranks 19th on Tour in proximity on approach and owns two career wins on bentgrass. His lowest scoring average this year comes in Round 1, further justifying the wager.

Cody Williams took Russell Henley +3500 FRL, pointing to the fit: a relatively short course emphasizing approach and short game. Henley gained at least 0.38 strokes on approach, around the green and with the putter over his last 20 rounds and finished T8 at RBC Heritage—another obvious comp. Williams expects that balance to translate to a low opener.

Brian Kirschner backed Keegan Bradley +4000 FRL by recalling Bradley’s first-round lead at the 2022 BMW, the last time the Tour debuted a bentgrass course in the Northeast. Kirschner believes Bradley consistently elevates his game in the region and is always live to open hot.

John Schwarb played Denny McCarthy +4500 for FRL. McCarthy sits 35th in FedExCup points thanks to finishes like T5 at Genesis and T14 at Players. Schwarb noted McCarthy is one of the Tour’s best putters and his Round-1 scoring average is his lowest of any round this season, making him an ideal rabbit on a brand-new track.

Matt Vincenzi took Hideki Matsuyama +3500 for FRL, spotlighting his success in the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast and at Baltusrol (T5, 2016 PGA—another Tillinghast). Matsuyama ranks 2nd over his last 50 rounds on approaches from 100-150 yards, a distance range likely to decide birdie looks on Philadelphia Cricket’s multi-tiered greens.

Iain MacMillan pivoted from Rory’s +450 outright to +1200 First-Round Leader. With Scottie Scheffler absent, McIlroy is first in the field in true strokes-gained over the past four months, out-gaining the next closest player by 0.45 strokes per round. MacMillan wants to capture that early ceiling in Rory’s first individual start since winning the Masters.

Brian Giuffra also grabbed Justin Rose +6500, staying with his European theme. Seven of Rose’s career wins came on bentgrass, including the 2013 U.S. Open at Merion and 2011 BMW at Aronimink, both down the road from Philly Cricket. Rose ranks 21st in SG: Approach over his last eight events and is rolling the rock exceptionally well, making him dangerous on Wissahickon’s sloping greens.

Cody Williams loves Ryan Gerard at +12000, arguing the 7,100-yard par-70 suits the youngster’s deft short-game and efficient iron play. Gerard missed the cut last week but logged three top-12 finishes in his previous four starts. Williams thinks Wissahickon is his best fit yet and worth a flyer.

Brian Kirschner doubled down on Harris English at +10000. He referenced English’s 2021 Travelers win, past success on northeast bentgrass and his current form—victory at Torrey Pines, 18th in Houston, 12th at Augusta. Kirschner believes English is positioned for another PGA Tour win on a soft, target-golf setup.

John Schwarb fired at Harris English +9000, reasoning that Wissahickon is the type of "artistry" track where elite putting shines. English finished T12 at the Masters and routinely gains with the flat stick, giving him sneaky ceiling despite middling ball-striking.

Matt Vincenzi’s long-shot ticket is Justin Rose at +6500. Rose owns winning memories in the Philly area, capturing the 2013 U.S. Open at nearby Merion and prefers bentgrass greens. Vincenzi noted Rose’s strong showing at the Masters as proof the 43-year-old still competes on big stages, making him live on another classic test.

Iain MacMillan tossed a dart at Patrick Rodgers at +12000 after Jason Day’s withdrawal opened a spot. Rodgers already proved he can hang in a signature event with a T3 at Genesis and posted T15 at last week’s CJ Cup. MacMillan conceded Rodgers must sharpen his irons but likes the "playing with house money" mindset for a talented putter on difficult greens.

Brian Giuffra stayed on the Year-of-the-Europeans narrative, grabbing Shane Lowry at +3700. He pointed to forecasted rain and potential wind on a classic, shorter course—conditions in which Lowry traditionally excels. On Tour this season Lowry is 11th in SG: Approach and 12th in distance-to-hole, indicators he can hit the correct quadrants on Wissahickon’s demanding greens. Already a solid bentgrass putter, Lowry hasn’t won since the 2019 Open but Giuffra sees the course and conditions lining up for a breakthrough.

Cody Williams pegged Corey Conners at +3000, citing a "complete game" perfectly tailored to Wissahickon. Over his last 20 rounds Conners ranks 4th in SG: Tee-to-Green thanks to accurate driving and pinpoint irons, while sitting 10th in scrambling over the last 16 rounds—critical on a green complex loaded with bunkers and subtle slopes. Williams believes that all-around profile gives the Canadian real winning upside in Philly.