Keith Stewart also spotlighted Collin Morikawa as a viable alternative to Scheffler. Morikawa is second on Tour in fairways gained and historically gains more than a stroke per round at East Lake thanks to elite approach play. Stewart argued that avoiding the Bermuda rough is paramount this week and Morikawa’s precision off the tee, combined with top-10 par-4 scoring, fits that bill perfectly. Priced around 30-1 with the winning score expected near −17.5, Morikawa’s accuracy-first profile makes him Stewart’s favorite precision play to steal the Tour Championship should Scheffler misfire.

Keith Stewart identified Russell Henley as his preferred long-shot outright if you fade Scheffler. Henley ranks among East Lake’s career strokes-gained leaders thanks to elite driving accuracy, a key on a course where the Bermuda rough "chews guys up." Stewart added that this third straight par-70 setup puts extra weight on par-3 and par-4 scoring, areas where Henley sits seventh and second on Tour this season. With the winning total projected around −17.5 and Henley trading 40-1 or longer, Stewart believes the accuracy edge gives Henley a realistic chance to upset the FedEx Cup apple cart.

Keith Stewart said bettors should not overthink the short +150 number and simply ride Scottie Scheffler to win the Tour Championship. Stewart pointed out Scheffler has captured five wins in his last 10 starts and has sat atop the world rankings for 118 consecutive weeks. He stressed that East Lake’s par-70 layout rewards fairway finders and elite ball-strikers, both Scheffler specialties, and that the penal Bermuda rough magnifies the edge. Vegas has set the winning score at −17.5, and Scheffler begins the staggered-start format with the season-long points lead plus his caddie Ted Scott is back on the bag. Stewart argued those factors combine to give Scheffler a Tiger-like advantage over the 29-man field and make him the clear betting choice to lock up the FedEx Cup.

Joe Pisapia warned that Josh Jacobs is unlikely to replicate last year’s carry load now that Jordan Love’s ankle is healthy. Pisapia noted Green Bay leaned on 340 Jacobs rush attempts in 2024 because Love lacked his usual pocket mobility and was "never right the entire season." With Love moving fluidly again, Pisapia expects Matt LaFleur to unlock more play-action and designed rollouts, trimming Jacobs’ touches and exposing him to injury risk if the Packers stubbornly keep his workload in the high-20s per game. Drafters counting on another usage spike should downgrade Jacobs into the mid-RB2 range.

Joe Pisapia said fantasy managers in super-flex drafts should treat Michael Penix as an upside swing for their late second or ideally third quarterback slot. Pisapia acknowledged it is "a little suspect" that Raheem Morris has held the rookie out of every preseason snap, but he views that more as Atlanta protecting potential trade leverage with Kirk Cousins than an indictment of Penix’s ability. The lack of in-game reps could slow early chemistry with Drake London and Kyle Pitts, yet Pisapia still prefers stashing Penix over the veteran waiver assortment because Penix’s rushing component and deep-ball profile give him week-winning ceilings if Cousins is dealt or benched.

Joe Pisapia said DeMario Douglas is the cheapest way to profit from Josh McDaniels’ return to New England and expects him to slide straight into the high-volume slot role once owned by Julian Edelman and Wes Welker. Edelman and Welker used to reel in 120 catches a year; while Pisapia is not projecting that total, he sees Douglas’ quickness and underneath route savvy fitting the same mold and translating to steady full-PPR flex production. Because fantasy players are tired of Patriots wide-receiver misses, Douglas is virtually free at the end of drafts, but Pisapia believes he has a realistic top-40 finish in his range of outcomes.

Joe Pisapia urged drafters to exploit Ricky Pearsall’s mid-40s wide-receiver ADP, calling him a near-free lottery ticket to weekly WR-2 production. Pearsall missed most of last season after being shot but flashed down the stretch, and the 49ers’ depth chart is wide open with Brandon Aiyuk expected to start on the PUP and only journeyman Jauan Jennings behind him. Pisapia noted that sheer volume in a soft early schedule could push Pearsall to seven-plus targets a week, especially if Christian McCaffrey or George Kittle miss time. Given the negligible opportunity cost, he sees Pearsall as a "find-out fast" pick who could anchor lineups by October.

Cody Roark urged bettors to consider AFC West futures on Denver (+550) or the Chargers (+330), saying he "has a strong feeling" Kansas City’s run of division titles ends in 2025. His reasoning: Denver’s defensive upgrades (Talanoa Hufanga, Dre Greenlaw) and improved offensive depth, Jim Harbaugh’s arrival in Los Angeles, and Pete Carroll’s culture change in Las Vegas all tighten the margin for error. Roark argued that if the Broncos avoid their customary September slump, "that trend could be in danger for Kansas City," making plus-money anti-Chiefs tickets attractive.

Cody Roark expects Bo Nix’s stats to "rise astronomically" after a 3,775-yard, 29-TD debut. He reminded viewers that Nix posted those numbers after a slow start while learning Payton’s offense, then ripped off 29 TDs versus five total turnovers in the final 11 games. Nix spent the offseason adding muscle and now owns the job with no Stidham or Wilson competition, which lets Payton expand designed-run packages. Roark projects 4,200-plus passing yards and increased rushing volume, labeling Nix a fantasy QB2 who can finish inside the top 10.

Cody Roark called Evan Engram "the bigger needle-mover" than any other Denver acquisition, even ahead of J.K. Dobbins. He reasoned that Sean Payton’s scheme has historically fed athletic tight ends, invoking Jimmy Graham’s 7-plus targets per game under Payton. With Denver lacking a reliable middle-of-field threat last year, Roark expects Engram to become Bo Nix’s primary safety valve and red-zone mismatch, giving him a realistic path to top-five fantasy tight-end numbers.

Cody Roark told listeners not to panic about Sean Payton’s depth chart that lists RJ Harvey fifth. He said Harvey and newly-signed J.K. Dobbins have "really been splitting the carries with the first-team offense" every day of camp, emphasizing that Dobbins is an upgrade on last year’s backs but not a bell-cow. Roark’s take is that Harvey’s actual usage makes him an undervalued late-round stash while simultaneously capping Dobbins’ ceiling in season-long and best-ball formats.

Joe Pisapia said Jordan Mason is a "sneaky, good pickup" and a better investment at current ADP than Aaron Jones. Pisapia pointed out that Kevin O'Connell has publicly stated he wants Mason as the "1B" in the Vikings backfield, giving him an immediate path to weekly touches. He argued the 49ers trading Mason was a mistake—especially with Garendo already hurt—because Mason flashed feature-back skills last year and proved he can handle a full workload. Pisapia added that Jones carries considerable mileage, making Mason the safer season-long target relative to cost.

Joe Pisapia argued Xavier Worthy’s draft price is "far too high" given the Chiefs’ murky receiver hierarchy and overall offensive transition. Worthy is being selected in the same range as proven commodities like George Pickens, yet Pisapia says we have only brief flashes and no guarantee Worthy commands significant target share—especially with the Rashee Rice situation unresolved. He does not expect Worthy to justify his ADP.

Joe Pisapia is fading Travis Kelce at his second-round ADP. He noted the 34-year-old "clearly lost a step" last season as yards-per-route and explosive plays declined. With Kansas City entering a transitional phase offensively, Pisapia prefers similarly priced tight ends Mark Andrews or Evan Engram, who are five-plus years younger and still ascending.

Joe Pisapia labeled Courtland Sutton a screaming value. Under Sean Payton, Sutton turned in 81 catches, 1,081 yards and eight touchdowns—good for WR13 last year—yet he is drafted as WR22 and often slips to WR3 territory. Pisapia expects a near copy-and-paste stat line thanks to Sutton’s chemistry with Bo Nix and his clear status as Denver’s top target. He would take Sutton over DK Metcalf in that draft pocket every time.

Joe Pisapia urged drafters to pass on Chris Olave at current cost. Olave suffered multiple concussions last season and now faces uncertain quarterback play from Tyler Shough or Spencer Rattler behind what Pisapia’s Blackbook grades as a bottom-of-the-barrel offensive line. That shaky ecosystem limits touchdown and volume upside, making it unlikely Olave returns value. Pisapia prefers similarly priced receivers such as Jamison Williams or Tet McMillan, who carry fewer red flags.

Joe Pisapia said Justin Herbert is "free" in single-QB leagues yet still owns elite ceiling. Herbert finished QB9 with a rookie passing record and QB2 with 5,000 yards in his next season. Even under Greg Roman’s run-heavy scheme he logged 332 attempts last year; Pisapia projects that to reach 400 with yards-after-catch threat Trey Harris now on the roster. After tossing just three regular-season interceptions, Herbert’s efficiency plus near-last-round ADP in both redraft and Superflex makes him a slam-dunk target.

Joe Pisapia advised steering clear of Najee Harris because there has been "no word anywhere" on Harris’ health or role coming out of Chargers camp. In an industry draft he monitored, that uncertainty pushed Harris to the 13th round. Pisapia said the silence this late in August is a red flag and recommended investing in backs with clearer information instead of gambling on Harris’ availability or workload.

Adam Kaufman predicted that the 2025 Dolphins will finish firmly third in the AFC East and likely miss the postseason. He said the club "is just nowhere near the Bills" and lacks the consistency required to contend for a wild-card spot. With New England still competitive and Tagovailoa’s availability week-to-week, Kaufman suggested bettors look at markets that let them fade Miami’s playoff chances instead of chasing long-shot division tickets.

Adam Kaufman said he leans toward the over on the New York Jets’ season-win total. Unlike Miami, he feels he "knows where the Jets are" in terms of roster construction and identity, which makes their projection less volatile. That clarity, combined with the possibility of the Dolphins stumbling if Tagovailoa misses time, gives Kaufman enough confidence to play the Jets over rather than tying up money in Miami’s uncertain outlook.

Adam Kaufman said he wants no part of any Miami Dolphins futures ticket because the franchise is riddled with unanswered questions. The entire handicap, he argued, hinges on whether Tua Tagovailoa can stay on the field. Kaufman pointed out that Tagovailoa owns a strong win-loss record when healthy, but multiple injury-shortened seasons make that wager closer to a coin-flip than a calculated bet. Last season’s promising stretch run collapsed with a frigid playoff loss in Kansas City, exposing how fragile the ceiling is when the quarterback is less than 100 percent. With no discount in the markets and too many variables, Kaufman advised simply passing on Dolphins season-long bets altogether.

David Furones cautioned that De'Von Achane’s touchdown upside could shrink in 2025. Miami added 220-pound Alexander Madison in free agency and drafted power backs Ollie Gordon and Jalen Wright specifically to “bring physicality” and keep the 188-pound Achane out of goal-line and short-yardage situations that frustrated fans last year. Furones said Madison has already “flashed in camp with his physicality,” and the coaches want a true thunder-and-lightning committee to free up Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle on the perimeter. That deployment would siphon the highest-value carries away from Achane and cap his weekly ceiling, so Furones advised downgrading Achane slightly in season-long rankings and approaching him as a boom-or-bust DFS play rather than a volume-safe RB1.

David Furones urged fantasy gamers to temper expectations for Darren Waller, labeling him a downgrade from the departed Jonnu Smith. Furones pointed out that Miami let Smith walk because they felt his 2024 production was a by-product of defenses bracketing Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, not elite tight-end play. Waller, meanwhile, is coming out of retirement, “in great shape but not in football shape,” and well past his peak seasons. Furones reminded listeners that Mike McDaniel’s offense has never maximized pure pass-catching tight ends—Mike Gesicki flopped under the same play-caller—and the front office reinforced that view by signing Waller cheaply instead of matching Pittsburgh’s offer to Smith. Expect a rotational role with limited target share and scant red-zone looks, making Waller a fade at his current draft cost.

David Furones predicted the Dolphins will finish 9-8 in 2025 and therefore recommended taking the over on their 8.5-win season total. He credited Miami’s revamped interior line—free-agent guard James Daniels back healthy from an Achilles, rookie Jonah Savaiinaea stepping straight into the other guard spot, and second-year left tackle Patrick Paul looking “much more polished”—for raising both the run-game ceiling and Tua Tagovailoa’s protection. Even so, Furones baked in the likelihood that Tagovailoa misses some time because of his concussion history and that “a lot of other key players” get hurt, which is why he stopped at nine wins rather than projecting double-digits. He expects a familiar script: Miami on the playoff bubble entering Week 18, mirroring last year’s 9-8 campaign, which makes the over the sharper side compared to an under that would require a three-game drop-off.

Ferronis highlighted Miami’s offseason commitment to fixing a run game that plummeted after Raheem Mostert and Jeff Wilson moved on. The club’s biggest free-agent check went to guard James Daniels (back practicing eight months removed from an Achilles tear), and it traded up in Round 2 for road-grader Jonah Savaiinaea. Ferronis expects Mike McDaniel to "earn it on the ground" early to force defenses out of the two-high shells that bottled Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle last year. If the line gels, whoever wins the early-down job could out-produce ADP, creating an early-season buy opportunity in best-ball, season-long and DFS contests before pricing adjusts.

Ferronis called Miami’s decision to make Zach Wilson its primary backup "a calculated target" that could blow up the club’s 7.5-win total. Tagovailoa has finished only one full season and missed six games in 2024—four to another concussion, two to a hip issue—so reliable insurance was critical. Many expected a proven veteran such as Jimmy Garoppolo or Joe Flacco, yet the Dolphins chose Wilson and seventh-round rookie Quinn Ewers. Ferronis argued the move leaves the roster "exposed" to heavy criticism (and losses) if Tagovailoa inevitably misses time, making fades on Dolphins futures or an under on their win total logical betting angles.

David Ferronis warned that Miami’s pass defense could be a weekly target for fantasy stacks and game-total overs in September. Both 2024 starting corners are gone—Jalen Ramsey was traded and Kendall Fuller released—while nickel Kader Kohu is already lost for the season with a knee injury. The Dolphins did reacquire safety Minkah Fitzpatrick, but Ferronis emphasized that the new corner trio of Jack Jones, Mike Hilton and assorted youngsters has only a month to learn Vic Fangio’s system. He added that the club must rely on three edge rushers coming off injuries (Chop Robinson, Jalen Phillips, Bradley Chubb) to mask those coverage gaps. Until that front proves healthy, Ferronis expects opposing quarterbacks to attack vertically, making Miami games attractive for DFS stacks against them and for bettors looking at early-season overs.

Matt Striker pegged Jonathan Taylor as a premier bounce-back candidate, reminding listeners that even in an "injury-ruined" campaign Taylor still racked up 1,400 rushing yards and 11 touchdowns. The Colts’ offensive line, ravaged by injuries last season, still managed to finish fourth in ESPN’s run-block win-rate metric and projects as a consensus top-10 unit at full health. With Shane Steichen expected to keep a balanced, run-friendly approach and Taylor no longer carrying a hold-out tag, Striker is comfortable selecting him in the late first or early second round, betting on a return to the overall RB1 conversation.

Matt Striker labeled Saquon Barkley a potential bust at his RB3 overall ADP despite the Eagles’ elite offensive line. Barkley handled 340+ carries last season—a workload threshold that historically precedes a 20-25% dip in fantasy production the following year, according to the data set Striker referenced from Joe Pizipia’s ‘Fantasy Blackbook’ research. Striker thinks drafters are paying for last season’s ceiling rather than baking in inevitable regression, and he is fading Barkley in the top half of Round 1, preferring wide receivers or lower-mileage backs in that slot.

Craig Mish said the market has over-reacted to Najee Harris’s July 4 eye mishap, pushing the former every-down back far enough down boards that he now represents one of the best cost-adjusted bets in the RB dead zone. Mish acknowledged that the Chargers added rookie O’Marian Hampton, have Hassan Haskins as a third-stringer, and still roster last year’s failed sleeper Kimani Vidal, but he believes Harris’s proven workload history and Greg Roman’s run-heavy tendencies will keep Harris firmly atop the depth chart once the medical staff clears him. With the ADP slide already two full rounds, Mish is happy to reach a half round ahead of consensus for the veteran and lock in a likely 275-touch back at a discount.

Matt Striker called Najee Harris one of his favorite late-round targets because the situation quietly checks every bell-cow box. Striker highlighted that the Chargers’ offensive line grades inside the league’s top-10 in most preseason models and that new coordinator Greg Roman has a long track record of leaning on the ground game (his Ravens offenses averaged nearly 32 RB carries per week). Harris has cleared 1,000 rushing yards in four straight seasons and has a contract escalator that kicks in at 1,050 yards, giving him extra motivation. Striker is unconcerned about Los Angeles drafting O’Marian Hampton or keeping Hassan Haskins and Kimani Vidal on the depth chart, noting that Harris’s proven pass-down chops keep him on the field for all three downs. With drafters shying away after the July 4 fireworks accident that saddled Harris with an “O” tag, Striker is scooping him several rounds below comparable volume bets and labeling him a clear sleeper.

Donnie Rightside advised betting the UNDER on Jayden Daniels’ season-long prop lines at FanDuel, calling them "out of control" for a player entering just his second NFL season. The market currently lists Daniels at 3,400 passing yards, 24 passing touchdowns, 675 rushing yards and 5.5 rushing touchdowns—numbers that price him like a top-five dual-threat quarterback. Rightside expects defensive coordinators to adjust after a full offseason of film study, leading to a classic sophomore regression. He also flagged the elevated injury risk that comes with Daniels’ rushing volume, citing Lamar Jackson’s periodic absences and Robert Griffin III’s career-altering knee injuries as cautionary tales. Because any concussion, hamstring tweak or ankle sprain that costs Daniels even one or two games would make those overs difficult to reach across a 17-game schedule, Rightside prefers playing the unders on all four props.

Brady Kannon spotlighted Jacksonville’s rebuilt interior offensive line as the hidden X-factor for both fantasy managers and prop bettors. The Jaguars added swingman Patrick Mekari and center Robert Hainsey while drafting Wyatt Milam, any of whom could slide in next to aging, perpetually banged-up veterans Brandon Scherff and Mitch Morse. Kannon expects this unit to be far more physical and finally open lanes for a ground attack that finished bottom-five in EPA per rush last season. If the group stays healthy, he projects the Jags to climb to mid-pack rushing efficiency, which would boost early-season overs on team rushing yards and make their starting running back (not named in the segment) a sneaky DFS play when salaries are still depressed.

Adam Kaufman argued the Jaguars are a sharp over on the 7.5-win line. He rattled off every piece of positive regression he expects: a brutal minus-15 turnover differential, a 1-4 record in field-goal-margin games and league-average sack rate should all swing toward the mean. Kaufman also likes the schematic reset—new DC Anthony Campanile replacing Ryan Nielsen, who forced Josh Allen, Travon Walker and Andre Cisco to play at unnatural weights—and the return of a healthy Trevor Lawrence plus Evan Engram and Christian Kirk. Put it together and Kaufman grades last year’s three-win outfit as a true .500 roster that simply ran ice-cold. His actionable advice: bet Over 7.5 wins at anything better than −130 and sprinkle a small flyer on Jacksonville to finish second in the AFC South behind Houston.

Adam Kaufman compared FanDuel’s season props of 3700.5 passing yards and 22.5 touchdowns for Trevor Lawrence and argued the yardage over is reachable while the touchdown number remains dicey. He pointed to Liam Cohen’s new system that gives Lawrence “an answer for everything at the line,” plus field-stretchers like rookie Brian Thomas and the two-way dynamo Travis Hunter to juice chunk gains. However, Lawrence has never been a high-volume TD thrower (only 26 scores across his best 17-game split) and lost safety-blanket Evan Engram, which caps red-zone upside. Health remains the wild card after two injury-shortened seasons. Kaufman’s actionable angle: bet the over on yards but tread carefully—or even lean under—on touchdowns unless camp reports show significant red-zone growth.

Brady Kannon said Jaguars decision-makers are "adamant" Travis Hunter will play on both sides of the ball every week. Through the first four camp practices Hunter has logged 83 defensive snaps versus 47 offensive snaps, and the staff is comfortable pushing him to "70-80 snaps per game" with the possibility of hitting 100 in shootouts. Kannon added that usage will be matchup-driven; for example, Week 2 against Cincinnati’s duo of Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins could skew heavily toward defense. If other corners step up or if wide-receiver depth lags, Hunter’s offensive workload would rise. That unique two-way role gives him an unusually high snap share and multiple paths to fantasy points, making him an upside swing in best-ball drafts and a DFS tournament wildcard despite conditioning and injury-fatigue risks.

Andrew Fillipponi urged fantasy managers and bettors to fade the Steelers defense despite the splashy additions of Jalen Ramsey, Darius Slay, Patrick Queen and first-round DT Derek Harmon. Pittsburgh now spends more money on defense than any team in the league—$20 million more than the second-place Giants—yet Fillipponi argued that in today’s NFL even elite defenses can’t carry an offense stuck in the mud. He pointed to playoff examples like Kansas City and Philadelphia, both of which paired good defenses with 30-plus-point offenses, and said Mike Tomlin’s unit will struggle to return fantasy value at its ADP or justify short game-total unders. In short: do not draft the Steelers DST as a top-five unit and think twice before leaning on defensive props.

Andrew Fillipponi called Jaylen Warren a clear upgrade over Najee Harris, stressing that Warren offers "more burst and upside for longer runs" instead of Najee’s three-yard-and-a-cloud-of-dust act. Pittsburgh just gave Warren a $5 million deal—starter money in Fillipponi’s eyes—and the rebuilt interior line (Jack Frazier at center plus a promising second-year right guard) should finally open lanes. He still warned that rookie Caleb Johnson could eventually force a committee, but expects Warren to start the year with the lion’s share of touches and far more explosive plays. DFS players and season-long drafters should treat him as an undervalued RB2 for Weeks 1-4, with contingency plans if Johnson comes on.

Andrew Fillipponi predicted Pat Freiermuth will set personal bests in volume and production because Arthur Smith flat-out loves funneling the offense through tight ends. Smith has dragged Jonnu Smith with him to three different teams and even coaxed record-setting numbers out of Jonnu in Miami last year. Fillipponi thinks the Steelers will have no choice but to copy that approach: DK Metcalf is going to be double-covered all season, and the thin wide-receiver room offers little incentive to attack outside. He noted Mike Tomlin’s historic fear of middle-of-the-field throws and Aaron Rodgers’ lukewarm tight-end history, but argued both tendencies must change now that Freiermuth and Jonnu represent Pittsburgh’s second- and third-best pass catchers. The end result, in his view, is a sneaky TE1 season for Freiermuth in best-ball and season-long formats at a discounted ADP.

Andrew Fillipponi would bet the under on DK Metcalf’s 925.5-yard prop at FanDuel. His reasoning: • With George Pickens traded, Pittsburgh lacks a viable WR2, meaning defenses can roll constant double coverage toward Metcalf. • The shaky left-tackle situation forces Rodgers to get the ball out quickly, limiting deep shots that traditionally fuel Metcalf’s yardage totals. • Calvin Austin profiles as a slot-only option, and Roman Wilson didn’t play last year, so nobody commands enough respect to keep safeties honest. • Arthur Smith’s history suggests a heavier tight-end and run-centric attack, further capping wide-receiver volume. Given those factors, Fillipponi expects Metcalf to fall short of 925.5 yards despite name-value buzz around the Rodgers-Metcalf pairing.

Andrew Fillipponi said the popular over 8.5 wins play on Pittsburgh is, in his words, “the biggest sucker bet on the board.” He projects the Steelers for only 7–8 wins because: • Aaron Rodgers has gone 5-20 in his last 25 starts despite posting gaudy yardage/TD totals, signaling empty production that doesn’t translate to victories. • Broderick Jones is struggling badly at left tackle—reports out of camp say he has looked “awful” after inexplicably dropping 30 pounds—leaving a 41-year-old Rodgers exposed behind what might be the league’s worst blind-side protection. • There is no proven safety net behind Jones, so a breakdown up front would short-circuit both the passing game and Najee-less running attack. • Mike Tomlin’s never-under-.500 narrative is artificially inflating public confidence, and the 2025 schedule is not the cupcake slate that carried Pittsburgh to double-digit wins the previous two seasons. Fillipponi believes those factors combine to make the under 8.5 wins the sharper side.

Chase McCabe said dynasty managers should view Will Levis as a long-term backup, not a future starter. McCabe likes Levis’s arm strength but thinks his decision-making collapses whenever pressure arrives, a flaw that showed up in college and again during his rookie snaps. Because of that, McCabe doubts another franchise will hand Levis a 10-to-12-game starting audition, making him a cut candidate in deeper dynasty leagues unless your format rosters every No. 2 quarterback.

Adam Kaufman recommended betting the Titans regular-season win total UNDER 5.5 at +135. After reviewing the schedule he could only "come up with possibly four spots" he likes for Tennessee, citing the brutal opening nine-week stretch, road games at Denver’s altitude and Houston’s rise inside the division. Kaufman noted the franchise managed just three victories last year and must break in a rookie quarterback and brand-new skill group, making six wins feel like a reach. He views the plus-money price as value given how hard it is to locate six realistic victories on the slate.

Brady Kannon said he is laying the 7.5 points with Denver in Week 1. He called the Broncos defense "arguably the best in the NFL" and believes Mile High’s altitude will compound the challenge for rookie quarterback Cameron Ward in his first pro start. Kannon pointed out that Sean Payton’s club finished last season strong and returns almost every key piece, while Tennessee is still feeling out a brand-new offense and backfield after moving on from Derrick Henry. He expects Denver’s pass rush to force Ward into turnovers, giving Russell Wilson short fields and making it difficult for the Titans to keep the game within a touchdown.

Adam Kaufman warned fantasy managers not to expect much from 32-year-old Tyler Lockett after his off-season move to Nashville. Kaufman said Lockett is “well past his prime” and projects him for no more than about 700 receiving yards if he stays healthy. With Calvin Ridley expected to operate as the clear No. 1 and Tennessee likely prioritizing developmental reps for rookie Cameron Ward, Kaufman views Lockett as a secondary option whose best-case yardage ceiling makes him an avoid in season-long drafts and an under candidate in any yardage prop market.

Chase McCabe said he would bet the OVER on Cameron Ward’s 3,200.5 passing-yards line. McCabe expects Brian Callahan to showcase his new quarterback because the staff’s job security hinges on Ward’s development. He noted the Titans will lean pass-heavy: Tony Pollard replaces Derrick Henry, so the ground game is merely “fine,” and the franchise needs to prove Ward is progressing. With a porous defense that surrendered 27 points per game last season, McCabe anticipates frequent negative game scripts that force Tennessee to throw. All of that adds up to enough volume for Ward to eclipse the rookie prop despite an uninspiring receiver room.

Ben Stevens leaned the opposite direction, agreeing with 59% of the Fade-the-Public poll that Travis Hunter’s best hardware shot is Defensive Rookie of the Year at 10-to-1. Stevens reminded listeners that Hunter erased half the field at Colorado and will walk into Jacksonville as their CB1, giving him every-down snaps from day one. Even if quarterbacks avoid him, sticky man coverage and a few high-leverage pass break-ups in prime-time games can sway AP voters, who have given the award to corners in two of the last eight seasons despite modest interception totals. Stevens noted Cohen’s own words—Hunter will start camp on offense but "that will kind of become the norm…flip-flop within the same practice"—suggest the staff still views defense as his primary role. With a clearer path to 900-plus defensive snaps than to a 100-target receiving season, Stevens likes the value at 10-1 and would sprinkle a smaller amount on the +450 ‘either award’ prop in case Hunter’s snap split turns into a true two-way workload.

Donnie Rightside said the market is underrating Travis Hunter’s Offensive Rookie of the Year chances at the current 9-to-1 price. Rightside pointed to head coach Liam Cohen’s camp plan—Hunter will spend the first week almost exclusively with the offense before rotating series on both sides—as a sign the Jaguars envision him as a real part of the passing attack rather than a gadget player. Rightside thinks Jacksonville could lean on Hunter for 55-60 offensive snaps a game, enough volume for a 1,000-yard, 10-TD ceiling that historically wins OROY. He contrasted that with Defensive Rookie of the Year voting, where sack totals and tackle volume drive awards and cornerbacks rarely win unless they post 7+ interceptions—numbers difficult to reach when QBs simply throw away from elite corners. With Hunter’s offensive pathway clearer and the OROY field led by two running backs (Ashton Gentie) and one quarterback (Cam Ward) who could cannibalize each other’s votes, Rightside advised grabbing the +900 now before preseason highlights shorten the number.

Ben Stevens predicted Baker Mayfield will again finish as a top-five production quarterback in 2024, calling him one of fantasy’s best late-round steals. Stevens expects the Buccaneers’ pass-heavy scheme to push Mayfield near 5,000 passing yards and roughly 40 touchdowns while maintaining a quarterback rating north of 100. He credited Mayfield’s late-career renaissance to improved decision-making, a humbling stint of team-hopping that forced him to "figure out how to play the position," and the presence of elite wideouts in Tampa’s vertical attack. After two consecutive seasons of QB1-caliber efficiency, Stevens sees no reason to doubt Mayfield’s ceiling, advising season-long and best-ball managers to draft him aggressively and to look at over props on his yardage and touchdowns once sportsbooks post them.

Donnie Rightside urged bettors to pounce on any “fewest wins in the NFL” market involving the Jets if Tyrod Taylor ends up starting in place of the newly-acquired but now-injured Justin Fields. Rightside noted New York’s posted win total sits at just 5.5 and argued the front office is far more interested in laying a foundation than chasing six meaningless victories. In his view, the franchise is better off bottoming out—think three wins—then resetting around a blue-chip quarterback in next April’s draft. He added that Taylor, at this stage of his career, offers minimal upside and virtually guarantees a conservative offense that caps both scoring and win probability. If the Jets resist trading for an expensive veteran and ride with Taylor, Rightside believes their downside is enormous and that betting them for the league’s worst record is “the clearest edge on the board.”