Matt Striker pegged Jonathan Taylor as a premier bounce-back candidate, reminding listeners that even in an "injury-ruined" campaign Taylor still racked up 1,400 rushing yards and 11 touchdowns. The Colts’ offensive line, ravaged by injuries last season, still managed to finish fourth in ESPN’s run-block win-rate metric and projects as a consensus top-10 unit at full health. With Shane Steichen expected to keep a balanced, run-friendly approach and Taylor no longer carrying a hold-out tag, Striker is comfortable selecting him in the late first or early second round, betting on a return to the overall RB1 conversation.

Matt Striker labeled Saquon Barkley a potential bust at his RB3 overall ADP despite the Eagles’ elite offensive line. Barkley handled 340+ carries last season—a workload threshold that historically precedes a 20-25% dip in fantasy production the following year, according to the data set Striker referenced from Joe Pizipia’s ‘Fantasy Blackbook’ research. Striker thinks drafters are paying for last season’s ceiling rather than baking in inevitable regression, and he is fading Barkley in the top half of Round 1, preferring wide receivers or lower-mileage backs in that slot.

Craig Mish said the market has over-reacted to Najee Harris’s July 4 eye mishap, pushing the former every-down back far enough down boards that he now represents one of the best cost-adjusted bets in the RB dead zone. Mish acknowledged that the Chargers added rookie O’Marian Hampton, have Hassan Haskins as a third-stringer, and still roster last year’s failed sleeper Kimani Vidal, but he believes Harris’s proven workload history and Greg Roman’s run-heavy tendencies will keep Harris firmly atop the depth chart once the medical staff clears him. With the ADP slide already two full rounds, Mish is happy to reach a half round ahead of consensus for the veteran and lock in a likely 275-touch back at a discount.

Matt Striker called Najee Harris one of his favorite late-round targets because the situation quietly checks every bell-cow box. Striker highlighted that the Chargers’ offensive line grades inside the league’s top-10 in most preseason models and that new coordinator Greg Roman has a long track record of leaning on the ground game (his Ravens offenses averaged nearly 32 RB carries per week). Harris has cleared 1,000 rushing yards in four straight seasons and has a contract escalator that kicks in at 1,050 yards, giving him extra motivation. Striker is unconcerned about Los Angeles drafting O’Marian Hampton or keeping Hassan Haskins and Kimani Vidal on the depth chart, noting that Harris’s proven pass-down chops keep him on the field for all three downs. With drafters shying away after the July 4 fireworks accident that saddled Harris with an “O” tag, Striker is scooping him several rounds below comparable volume bets and labeling him a clear sleeper.

Donnie Rightside advised betting the UNDER on Jayden Daniels’ season-long prop lines at FanDuel, calling them "out of control" for a player entering just his second NFL season. The market currently lists Daniels at 3,400 passing yards, 24 passing touchdowns, 675 rushing yards and 5.5 rushing touchdowns—numbers that price him like a top-five dual-threat quarterback. Rightside expects defensive coordinators to adjust after a full offseason of film study, leading to a classic sophomore regression. He also flagged the elevated injury risk that comes with Daniels’ rushing volume, citing Lamar Jackson’s periodic absences and Robert Griffin III’s career-altering knee injuries as cautionary tales. Because any concussion, hamstring tweak or ankle sprain that costs Daniels even one or two games would make those overs difficult to reach across a 17-game schedule, Rightside prefers playing the unders on all four props.

Brady Kannon spotlighted Jacksonville’s rebuilt interior offensive line as the hidden X-factor for both fantasy managers and prop bettors. The Jaguars added swingman Patrick Mekari and center Robert Hainsey while drafting Wyatt Milam, any of whom could slide in next to aging, perpetually banged-up veterans Brandon Scherff and Mitch Morse. Kannon expects this unit to be far more physical and finally open lanes for a ground attack that finished bottom-five in EPA per rush last season. If the group stays healthy, he projects the Jags to climb to mid-pack rushing efficiency, which would boost early-season overs on team rushing yards and make their starting running back (not named in the segment) a sneaky DFS play when salaries are still depressed.

Adam Kaufman argued the Jaguars are a sharp over on the 7.5-win line. He rattled off every piece of positive regression he expects: a brutal minus-15 turnover differential, a 1-4 record in field-goal-margin games and league-average sack rate should all swing toward the mean. Kaufman also likes the schematic reset—new DC Anthony Campanile replacing Ryan Nielsen, who forced Josh Allen, Travon Walker and Andre Cisco to play at unnatural weights—and the return of a healthy Trevor Lawrence plus Evan Engram and Christian Kirk. Put it together and Kaufman grades last year’s three-win outfit as a true .500 roster that simply ran ice-cold. His actionable advice: bet Over 7.5 wins at anything better than −130 and sprinkle a small flyer on Jacksonville to finish second in the AFC South behind Houston.

Adam Kaufman compared FanDuel’s season props of 3700.5 passing yards and 22.5 touchdowns for Trevor Lawrence and argued the yardage over is reachable while the touchdown number remains dicey. He pointed to Liam Cohen’s new system that gives Lawrence “an answer for everything at the line,” plus field-stretchers like rookie Brian Thomas and the two-way dynamo Travis Hunter to juice chunk gains. However, Lawrence has never been a high-volume TD thrower (only 26 scores across his best 17-game split) and lost safety-blanket Evan Engram, which caps red-zone upside. Health remains the wild card after two injury-shortened seasons. Kaufman’s actionable angle: bet the over on yards but tread carefully—or even lean under—on touchdowns unless camp reports show significant red-zone growth.

Brady Kannon said Jaguars decision-makers are "adamant" Travis Hunter will play on both sides of the ball every week. Through the first four camp practices Hunter has logged 83 defensive snaps versus 47 offensive snaps, and the staff is comfortable pushing him to "70-80 snaps per game" with the possibility of hitting 100 in shootouts. Kannon added that usage will be matchup-driven; for example, Week 2 against Cincinnati’s duo of Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins could skew heavily toward defense. If other corners step up or if wide-receiver depth lags, Hunter’s offensive workload would rise. That unique two-way role gives him an unusually high snap share and multiple paths to fantasy points, making him an upside swing in best-ball drafts and a DFS tournament wildcard despite conditioning and injury-fatigue risks.

Andrew Fillipponi urged fantasy managers and bettors to fade the Steelers defense despite the splashy additions of Jalen Ramsey, Darius Slay, Patrick Queen and first-round DT Derek Harmon. Pittsburgh now spends more money on defense than any team in the league—$20 million more than the second-place Giants—yet Fillipponi argued that in today’s NFL even elite defenses can’t carry an offense stuck in the mud. He pointed to playoff examples like Kansas City and Philadelphia, both of which paired good defenses with 30-plus-point offenses, and said Mike Tomlin’s unit will struggle to return fantasy value at its ADP or justify short game-total unders. In short: do not draft the Steelers DST as a top-five unit and think twice before leaning on defensive props.

Andrew Fillipponi called Jaylen Warren a clear upgrade over Najee Harris, stressing that Warren offers "more burst and upside for longer runs" instead of Najee’s three-yard-and-a-cloud-of-dust act. Pittsburgh just gave Warren a $5 million deal—starter money in Fillipponi’s eyes—and the rebuilt interior line (Jack Frazier at center plus a promising second-year right guard) should finally open lanes. He still warned that rookie Caleb Johnson could eventually force a committee, but expects Warren to start the year with the lion’s share of touches and far more explosive plays. DFS players and season-long drafters should treat him as an undervalued RB2 for Weeks 1-4, with contingency plans if Johnson comes on.

Andrew Fillipponi predicted Pat Freiermuth will set personal bests in volume and production because Arthur Smith flat-out loves funneling the offense through tight ends. Smith has dragged Jonnu Smith with him to three different teams and even coaxed record-setting numbers out of Jonnu in Miami last year. Fillipponi thinks the Steelers will have no choice but to copy that approach: DK Metcalf is going to be double-covered all season, and the thin wide-receiver room offers little incentive to attack outside. He noted Mike Tomlin’s historic fear of middle-of-the-field throws and Aaron Rodgers’ lukewarm tight-end history, but argued both tendencies must change now that Freiermuth and Jonnu represent Pittsburgh’s second- and third-best pass catchers. The end result, in his view, is a sneaky TE1 season for Freiermuth in best-ball and season-long formats at a discounted ADP.

Andrew Fillipponi would bet the under on DK Metcalf’s 925.5-yard prop at FanDuel. His reasoning: • With George Pickens traded, Pittsburgh lacks a viable WR2, meaning defenses can roll constant double coverage toward Metcalf. • The shaky left-tackle situation forces Rodgers to get the ball out quickly, limiting deep shots that traditionally fuel Metcalf’s yardage totals. • Calvin Austin profiles as a slot-only option, and Roman Wilson didn’t play last year, so nobody commands enough respect to keep safeties honest. • Arthur Smith’s history suggests a heavier tight-end and run-centric attack, further capping wide-receiver volume. Given those factors, Fillipponi expects Metcalf to fall short of 925.5 yards despite name-value buzz around the Rodgers-Metcalf pairing.

Andrew Fillipponi said the popular over 8.5 wins play on Pittsburgh is, in his words, “the biggest sucker bet on the board.” He projects the Steelers for only 7–8 wins because: • Aaron Rodgers has gone 5-20 in his last 25 starts despite posting gaudy yardage/TD totals, signaling empty production that doesn’t translate to victories. • Broderick Jones is struggling badly at left tackle—reports out of camp say he has looked “awful” after inexplicably dropping 30 pounds—leaving a 41-year-old Rodgers exposed behind what might be the league’s worst blind-side protection. • There is no proven safety net behind Jones, so a breakdown up front would short-circuit both the passing game and Najee-less running attack. • Mike Tomlin’s never-under-.500 narrative is artificially inflating public confidence, and the 2025 schedule is not the cupcake slate that carried Pittsburgh to double-digit wins the previous two seasons. Fillipponi believes those factors combine to make the under 8.5 wins the sharper side.

Chase McCabe said dynasty managers should view Will Levis as a long-term backup, not a future starter. McCabe likes Levis’s arm strength but thinks his decision-making collapses whenever pressure arrives, a flaw that showed up in college and again during his rookie snaps. Because of that, McCabe doubts another franchise will hand Levis a 10-to-12-game starting audition, making him a cut candidate in deeper dynasty leagues unless your format rosters every No. 2 quarterback.

Adam Kaufman recommended betting the Titans regular-season win total UNDER 5.5 at +135. After reviewing the schedule he could only "come up with possibly four spots" he likes for Tennessee, citing the brutal opening nine-week stretch, road games at Denver’s altitude and Houston’s rise inside the division. Kaufman noted the franchise managed just three victories last year and must break in a rookie quarterback and brand-new skill group, making six wins feel like a reach. He views the plus-money price as value given how hard it is to locate six realistic victories on the slate.

Adam Kaufman warned fantasy managers not to expect much from 32-year-old Tyler Lockett after his off-season move to Nashville. Kaufman said Lockett is “well past his prime” and projects him for no more than about 700 receiving yards if he stays healthy. With Calvin Ridley expected to operate as the clear No. 1 and Tennessee likely prioritizing developmental reps for rookie Cameron Ward, Kaufman views Lockett as a secondary option whose best-case yardage ceiling makes him an avoid in season-long drafts and an under candidate in any yardage prop market.

Chase McCabe said he would bet the OVER on Cameron Ward’s 3,200.5 passing-yards line. McCabe expects Brian Callahan to showcase his new quarterback because the staff’s job security hinges on Ward’s development. He noted the Titans will lean pass-heavy: Tony Pollard replaces Derrick Henry, so the ground game is merely “fine,” and the franchise needs to prove Ward is progressing. With a porous defense that surrendered 27 points per game last season, McCabe anticipates frequent negative game scripts that force Tennessee to throw. All of that adds up to enough volume for Ward to eclipse the rookie prop despite an uninspiring receiver room.

Ben Stevens leaned the opposite direction, agreeing with 59% of the Fade-the-Public poll that Travis Hunter’s best hardware shot is Defensive Rookie of the Year at 10-to-1. Stevens reminded listeners that Hunter erased half the field at Colorado and will walk into Jacksonville as their CB1, giving him every-down snaps from day one. Even if quarterbacks avoid him, sticky man coverage and a few high-leverage pass break-ups in prime-time games can sway AP voters, who have given the award to corners in two of the last eight seasons despite modest interception totals. Stevens noted Cohen’s own words—Hunter will start camp on offense but "that will kind of become the norm…flip-flop within the same practice"—suggest the staff still views defense as his primary role. With a clearer path to 900-plus defensive snaps than to a 100-target receiving season, Stevens likes the value at 10-1 and would sprinkle a smaller amount on the +450 ‘either award’ prop in case Hunter’s snap split turns into a true two-way workload.

Donnie Rightside said the market is underrating Travis Hunter’s Offensive Rookie of the Year chances at the current 9-to-1 price. Rightside pointed to head coach Liam Cohen’s camp plan—Hunter will spend the first week almost exclusively with the offense before rotating series on both sides—as a sign the Jaguars envision him as a real part of the passing attack rather than a gadget player. Rightside thinks Jacksonville could lean on Hunter for 55-60 offensive snaps a game, enough volume for a 1,000-yard, 10-TD ceiling that historically wins OROY. He contrasted that with Defensive Rookie of the Year voting, where sack totals and tackle volume drive awards and cornerbacks rarely win unless they post 7+ interceptions—numbers difficult to reach when QBs simply throw away from elite corners. With Hunter’s offensive pathway clearer and the OROY field led by two running backs (Ashton Gentie) and one quarterback (Cam Ward) who could cannibalize each other’s votes, Rightside advised grabbing the +900 now before preseason highlights shorten the number.

Ben Stevens predicted Baker Mayfield will again finish as a top-five production quarterback in 2024, calling him one of fantasy’s best late-round steals. Stevens expects the Buccaneers’ pass-heavy scheme to push Mayfield near 5,000 passing yards and roughly 40 touchdowns while maintaining a quarterback rating north of 100. He credited Mayfield’s late-career renaissance to improved decision-making, a humbling stint of team-hopping that forced him to "figure out how to play the position," and the presence of elite wideouts in Tampa’s vertical attack. After two consecutive seasons of QB1-caliber efficiency, Stevens sees no reason to doubt Mayfield’s ceiling, advising season-long and best-ball managers to draft him aggressively and to look at over props on his yardage and touchdowns once sportsbooks post them.

Donnie Rightside urged bettors to pounce on any “fewest wins in the NFL” market involving the Jets if Tyrod Taylor ends up starting in place of the newly-acquired but now-injured Justin Fields. Rightside noted New York’s posted win total sits at just 5.5 and argued the front office is far more interested in laying a foundation than chasing six meaningless victories. In his view, the franchise is better off bottoming out—think three wins—then resetting around a blue-chip quarterback in next April’s draft. He added that Taylor, at this stage of his career, offers minimal upside and virtually guarantees a conservative offense that caps both scoring and win probability. If the Jets resist trading for an expensive veteran and ride with Taylor, Rightside believes their downside is enormous and that betting them for the league’s worst record is “the clearest edge on the board.”

Donnie Rightside applauded Zac Taylor’s plan to let Joe Burrow and the Bengals’ first-string offense log "a quarter to a quarter-and-a-half" in all three preseason games, arguing it finally sets Cincinnati up to avoid its annual 0-2 hole. Burrow is fully healthy for the first summer since entering the league—no ACL rehab, no calf strain, no pitch counts during camp—and Taylor confirmed the team will "play him more in games than we ever have." Rightside stressed that real game-day scripts, full warm-ups, and live snaps at 85-degree field temps matter for conditioning and tempo in a way joint practices never can. He expects the extra reps to sharpen timing with Ja’Marr Chase & company, giving bettors confidence to back Cincy in Week 1 lines and making Burrow a stronger early-season DFS and best-ball asset than in past years when he started slowly (0-2 in 2022 and 2023, 0-3 in 2020).

Donnie Rightside said he would hit any prop listing the Browns to start more than 2.5 quarterbacks this season. His logic: Joe Flacco is 40, on a one–year deal, and simply keeping the seat warm. Kenny Pickett needs a real-time audition because Cleveland must decide on him before next year’s draft, while rookies Shedeur Sanders and Dillon Gabriel will also need live reps once the Browns fall off the playoff pace. Deshaun Watson remains on PUP but still clogs a roster spot, creating a four-headed depth chart that Rightside thinks forces Kevin Stefanski to “find out what we have” down the stretch. Given the franchise’s low expectations and the likelihood they are 5-7 or worse by December, he believes Cleveland will churn through at least three different starters, making the OVER the sharp side of that market.

Ben Stevens questioned why sportsbooks list Joe Flacco as the slight favorite to open the season under center for Cleveland and recommended taking a shot on Kenny Pickett in any "Week-1 starter" markets that reopen. Stevens reasoned that Flacco “is not the future—maybe not even past weeks two or three,” while the front office desperately needs to evaluate Pickett after trading for him this spring. With Deshaun Watson stashed on PUP following a second Achilles rupture and rookies Shedeur Sanders and Dillon Gabriel viewed as long-term projects, Stevens thinks Andrew Berry and Kevin Stefanski will prioritize gathering a full season of tape on Pickett before deciding whether to invest future draft capital at quarterback. Given that context, Stevens believes the coaching staff will give Pickett all the first-team reps in August, making him undervalued relative to the current odds that favor the 39-year-old Flacco.

Ben Stevens said he is holding an alternate Giants ticket OVER 3.5 wins and remains confident it cashes now that Brian Daboll has officially named Russell Wilson the Week-1 starter. Stevens argued Wilson is still "serviceable," pointing to last year’s 11-game sample in Pittsburgh—63.7 % completion rate, 2,416 yards, 18 total TDs and only 5 INTs—as proof the veteran can keep the offense on schedule. He likes the supporting cast: Malik Nabers coming off an "outstanding rookie season," rookie back Tyrone Tracy already handling the lead-back role, plus a defense he called a "good foundational unit." Even though the Giants face the league’s toughest schedule by projected opponent win totals and the market has moved the primary win total to 5.5 (under juiced), Stevens believes Wilson can steal enough winnable spots and keep New York competitive long enough for him to get to four victories and cash that alt ticket.

Donnie Rightside said Miami is a clear under play on their posted 8.5-win total (alt line 6.5 also heavily juiced). His pessimism stems from Tua Tagovailoa’s multi-year concussion and hip history, the fact the Dolphins went just 6-4 in the ten games Tua both started and finished last season, and Mike McDaniel’s 5-18 straight-up record as an underdog. Donnie highlighted a treacherous opening stretch—at Colts, vs Patriots, at Bills, vs Jets, vs Panthers, then at Browns—that could easily leave them 1-4 or worse, putting McDaniel on the fast-track to be the first coach fired and re-igniting Tyreek Hill’s trade demands. Rightside concluded that with so many red flags Miami is “not going to be a playoff team” and betting their season-win under is the best way to capitalize on the uncertainty around Tua’s health and the coaching hot-seat.

Fernando Ramirez said the Chargers defense is being undervalued in fantasy drafts and futures markets even after finishing No. 1 in scoring defense last year at just 17.7 points per game. He reminded listeners the unit went 12-5-1 against the spread—including a 4-0 mark while sweeping the Broncos and Raiders—under first-year coordinator Jesse Minter. Ramirez expects a similar or better showing in 2025 because Minter returns with his scheme fully installed and cornerstone safety Derwin James still patrolling the back end. Although Joey Bosa and run-stuffer Puna Ford departed, Ramirez noted the club is "genuinely excited" about second-year linebacker Deion Henley and rookie corners Star Heaps and Cam Hart, projecting an overall faster back seven. He views the defensive line as the only mild concern yet believes Harbaugh’s run-heavy offense will protect that group by controlling tempo. Ramirez advised scooping the Chargers DST as a top-5 fantasy unit and leaning toward season-long win-total overs or weekly unders whenever sportsbooks price them as an average defense.

Fernando Ramirez predicted Najee Harris will be the centerpiece of Jim Harbaugh’s new power-run identity and remain a reliable 1,000-yard back for both fantasy and prop bettors. Ramirez emphasized that Harbaugh wants to "tire teams out in the fourth quarter" and now has the personnel to do it: 370-pound Mekhi Becton at tackle, rookie battering ram Omarion Hampton to spell Harris, and an offensive philosophy centered on downhill, gap-scheme runs. He blamed last season’s late-game collapses on offensive-line fatigue and a lack of between-the-tackles punch, problems Harris directly addresses. With four straight 1,000-yard campaigns even in Pittsburgh’s identity crisis, Ramirez believes Harris is positioned for heavy volume, meaningful goal-line work, and a strong chance to beat seasonal rushing props while helping the Chargers push over their 9.5-win total.

Fernando Ramirez said bettors should hit the over on Justin Herbert’s 3,650.5-yard passing prop at FanDuel. He expects Herbert to grow in Year 2 of Jim Harbaugh’s system thanks to an upgraded supporting cast: Tyler Conklin added at tight end, versatile rookie TE Arande Gadsden (who Derwin James singled out in camp), rookie wideouts Trey Harris and Keondre Lambert-Smith stretching the field, and Omarion Hampton’s receiving chops out of the backfield. Ramirez noted Herbert has already cleared 4,300 yards twice and would have topped 3,800 last year despite a totally new scheme and limited weaponry. With healthier off-season reps and more explosive pass catchers, Ramirez projects Herbert comfortably eclipsing the posted number if he stays healthy.

Joe Reedy highlighted Cincinnati’s 2025 schedule as a hidden advantage in the AFC North futures market. Baltimore’s first-place slate forces the Ravens to face Kansas City, Houston and the L.A. Rams, while the Bengals’ third-place draw swaps in Jacksonville and Denver instead. Reedy said a simple split in the head-to-head series plus that cross-division disparity could narrow—or even reverse—the standings. He views those schedule quirks as enough to justify an early wager on the Bengals to win the division at plus money before oddsmakers fully price in the differential.

Joe Reedy warned fantasy managers and prop bettors to steer clear of Evan McPherson until further notice. Reedy called McPherson’s 2024 campaign "an awful year," a sharp contrast to the kicker’s first three pro seasons. He pointed out that Cincinnati went just 1-3 in field-goal-decided games and stressed that special-teams coordinator Darren Simmons "is not a patient individual." According to Reedy, if McPherson shows the same early-season inconsistency, Simmons will not hesitate to replace him, undoing any draft capital or preseason wagering tied to McPherson. Reedy expects Cincinnati’s return and coverage units to remain strengths but believes the place-kicking job could be in flux by October, making McPherson a risky season-long selection and an avoid in weekly kicker props.

Joe Reedy leaned toward the under on Cincinnati’s 9.5-win total, pointing to a confluence of red flags. After opening at Cleveland and home versus Jacksonville, he called the next five games—a gauntlet of Minnesota, Denver, Green Bay, a short-week trip to Pittsburgh and Detroit—"brutal," saying a 3-4 start would immediately pressure any over tickets. Reedy also flagged two defensive line holdouts (sack leader Trey Hendrickson and 1st-rounder Shemar Stewart), Zach Taylor’s historical September stumbles, and lingering offensive-line uncertainty that has already cost Joe Burrow two injury-shortened seasons. With those concerns, he views 9-8 as a realistic ceiling and the under as the sharper side.

Adam Kaufman said bettors should look to back the Bengals in August exhibition games because Zach Taylor has publicly vowed to play his veterans more than usual this preseason. Cincinnati traditionally sits its stars, but Taylor wants a sharper Week-1 start after years of slow Septembers, so Joe Burrow, Ja'Marr Chase and other first-teamers are expected to log meaningful snaps. Kaufman believes that talent edge versus opponents still running second- and third-stringers makes Cincinnati an attractive side on preseason point-spreads and moneylines.

Smylie Kaufman flagged Collin Morikawa as a sneaky win target because he’s debuting legendary looper Billy Foster on the bag this week. Kaufman noted that Morikawa already owns a solid record at Renaissance Club and that Foster—fresh out of "retirement" after stints with major champions—gives Morikawa a different, more direct voice on club selection. Kaufman argued that Morikawa’s old-school, spin-manipulation approach with his irons can be tough for a new caddy, yet history shows players often pop in the first outing with a fresh bagman. Given Morikawa’s precise iron game and Foster’s proven major-championship pedigree, Kaufman believes the duo has immediate upside for an outright ticket or top-finish play at the Scottish.

After Mike Carver floated Sam Burns as a sleeper, Smylie Kaufman backed the idea, explaining why Burns profiles as a strong outright or each-way play this week. Kaufman emphasized Burns’ two biggest weapons—elite driving and a hot putter—both of which are amplified on the firm Renaissance Club turf that yields plenty of wedge approaches. Burns has flashed form with several high finishes over the past six weeks and owns positive history at this event. Kaufman added that firm fairways should help Burns’ penetrating driver find extra rollout and set up scoring irons, giving him realistic win equity in a field loaded with stars.

Smylie Kaufman said Tommy Fleetwood sets up perfectly to contend, and possibly break through for his long-awaited PGA-Tour-sanctioned win, at the Scottish Open. Kaufman highlighted four top-10 finishes for Fleetwood at Renaissance Club, noting that the Englishman is as comfortable as anyone on firm, coastal setups and will enjoy massive home-crowd support. The course offers plenty of wedges and rewards precise driving—areas where Fleetwood has excelled all season while compiling multiple top-10s worldwide. Kaufman conceded Fleetwood has been hard to bet outright but called this "a really, really good week" for a top-finish ticket or win sprinkle because of the track record, current form, and familiarity with links-style conditions.

Donnie Rightside advised passing on Tennessee’s 5.5-win total over, saying even a best-case scenario tops out at six victories. He questioned first-year head coach Brian Callahan’s long-term job security—jokingly comparing him to Callahan Auto Parts from ‘Tommy Boy’—and highlighted the uncertainty surrounding new general manager Mike Borgonzi. Rightside believes 2025 is purely an evaluation year for rookie quarterback Cam Ward, who inherits one of the league’s thinnest supporting casts after the Titans cycled through Will Levis and Mason Rudolph last season. With a rookie signal-caller, a defensive front that slipped to 26th in pressure rate, and no established offensive identity, he sees a 4–6 win range. Bettors looking for win-total exposure should either play the under or stay away, as ‘over’ tickets rely on Ward hitting an unlikely Year-1 star trajectory.

Ben Stevens said Indianapolis is an automatic fade on its 7.5-win total if Daniel Jones, not Anthony Richardson, is under center in Week 1. He outlined a bleak scenario: Richardson is still rehabbing last year’s shoulder injury, has started only four NFL games and posted a league-worst 47.7% completion rate, while Jones offers little more than ‘stability’ after a 15-31 career record and 3.6% TD rate. Stevens argued that choosing Jones would signal the franchise already doubts Richardson’s future, turning 2025 into a placeholder season with zero developmental upside. He also noted Shane Steichen sits at 17-17 in two years and could be a casualty of another losing campaign. Without a healthy, high-ceiling quarterback, Stevens projects the Colts to finish 6-11 or worse, making under tickets the sharp side the moment Indy hints that Jones will take the first snap.

Donnie Rightside urged bettors to grab Jacksonville at +220 to win the AFC South, calling the Jags the only team in the division with true ‘boom’ potential. Rightside said the hire of offensive guru Liam Coen will put Trevor Lawrence in the same QB-friendly system that resurrected Baker Mayfield, and Jacksonville followed the Tampa blueprint by surrounding Lawrence with explosive wideouts—rookie Brian Thomas Jr., two-way phenom Travis Hunter and deep threat Dyami Brown—while still featuring Travis Etienne in the backfield. He contrasted that arsenal with Houston’s defense-heavy spending spree, noting the Texans slipped to 20th in EPA per play vs. the pass after Week 12. Rightside added that Lawrence already owns a playoff win, and if the former No. 1 pick finally delivers top-10 efficiency numbers, Jacksonville’s ceiling exceeds anything C.J. Stroud can replicate behind a shaky Texans O-line. He concluded that a 10-7 record should take the division, giving the +220 ticket plenty of value.

Ben Stevens sees value in the Jets’ 5.5-win total, which is shaded to the over at –135. He believes first-year head coach Aaron Glenn will replicate the culture turnaround he spearheaded in Detroit, while Justin Fields gives New York a higher offensive ceiling than last year’s aging Aaron Rodgers experiment did. Stevens pointed out that a last-place schedule served up four games versus fellow bottom-feeders Tennessee and Arizona plus winnable home dates against Chicago and Las Vegas. With a retooled offensive line and four starters returning on a surprisingly stout defense (12th in DVOA despite the 5-12 record), he projects 6–7 victories—enough to cash over tickets and make the Jets pesky underdogs week-to-week.

Donnie Rightside recommended hammering the Dolphins’ under 8.5 wins (-180) and even sprinkling the alternate under 6.5 at plus money. Rightside called Miami ‘rudderless,’ citing front-office discord, Mike McDaniel’s hot seat, persistent concerns over Tua Tagovailoa’s durability, and reports that Tyreek Hill is unhappy. He noted that bookmakers are effectively projecting a 7-10 finish—reflected by the juiced alternate lines—and he sees little path to nine victories in an AFC East he expects Buffalo to dominate. Rightside compared the vibe to last year’s Panthers collapse, warning that mid-season firings would crater any remaining upside. His advice: fade Miami in every season-long market until the franchise shows direction.

Ben Stevens endorsed betting the Patriots’ win total over 7.5 (-125 at most shops). Stevens said oddsmakers are quietly pricing New England for an eight-win season because of three key edges: 1) the NFL’s second-easiest schedule by opponent win totals, 2) a proven head coach upgrade to Mike Vrabel, and 3) the optimism that No. 3 overall pick Drake Maye can operate behind an improving offensive line now anchored by franchise left tackle Caedan Wallace. He added that the AFC East looks softer than at any point in the last five years—Miami’s win total is sinking and the Jets are in a rebuild—so New England could go 4-2 inside the division. Stevens acknowledged protection is the lone ‘if,’ but argued that needing only a .500 record outside Buffalo makes the over a strong bet.

Donnie Rightside loves Buffalo’s outlook for the conference No. 1 seed, saying their ‘cake’ divisional slate plus an offense led by MVP-caliber Josh Allen makes the over 11.5 wins look light. Rightside highlighted an early stretch in which Buffalo is favored by a touchdown or more in four of its first five contests and faces only two projected top-10 defenses all year. On offense, Allen still has Dalton Kincaid, James Cook and a deeper receiver trio of rookie Keon Coleman, Khalil Shakir and DJ Palmer, enough firepower to stay top-five in yards per drive. Rightside also praised the front office for adding Nick Bosa opposite Greg Rousseau—if the former Defensive Player of the Year stays healthy, he thinks Buffalo can climb back into the top-three in pressure rate after finishing ninth last season. He concluded that home-field advantage is Buffalo’s missing Super Bowl ingredient; an East that features rebuilding New England, injury-plagued Miami and boom-or-bust New York gives them the inside track.

Ben Stevens called the Bills a ‘one-way street’ to an AFC East crown at –260, noting it is the shortest divisional price on any board yet still worth laying. His evidence: Buffalo has captured five straight East titles and now faces the league’s 28th-toughest schedule by opponent win totals. The Jets remain a health gamble with 41-year-old Aaron Rodgers, Miami’s defense took a step back after trading Jalen Ramsey, and New England is stuck in a rebuild with Drake Maye behind a shaky offensive line. Buffalo’s own win total sits at 11.5 (over –160), the highest in football, signaling books agree. Stevens argued that locking in divisional tickets also creates a cheap surrogate for Bills No. 1-seed equity because home-field runs almost always start with winning your division. He recommends pairing the –260 with rollover money-line parlays against AFC East foes to juice ROI rather than chasing longer-shot Super Bowl futures.

Donnie Rightside doubled-down on fading Cleveland’s 5.5-win total, stressing that a Joe Flacco opening-day start virtually guarantees a disastrous arc. Rightside expects the 39-year-old to stumble to a 1-5 record through the Browns’ brutal first six games, which include road dates at Baltimore and Kansas City plus home tilts versus Pittsburgh and the Jets. Once eliminated from realistic playoff contention, Rightside believes the front office will ‘wave the white flag’ and pivot to rookie quarterbacks Shadrach Sanders (Round 5) and third-rounder Dylan Gabriel to evaluate the future. He warned that late-season developmental reps typically tank short-term results—think four wins heading into December—leaving under tickets in great shape. His bottom line: bet the under now because roster self-scouting, a weak offensive line and a schedule ranked 2nd-hardest by Vegas win totals make six victories a longshot.

Donnie Rightside targeted the Browns’ 5.5-win total under should Joe Flacco win the Week 1 starting job. He noted Cleveland faces the NFL’s second-hardest schedule and currently has the juiciest under (-145) among the five teams posted at 5.5 wins. Rightside said starting an aging Flacco over Kenny Pickett or either rookie would signal the franchise is already in survival mode, not building for the future. In his scenario the Browns could stumble to a 1–5 start, and once they are out of playoff contention the front office will pivot to evaluating young quarterbacks—further tanking short-term results. With ownership demanding "don’t embarrass me" wins, he sees no upside path if Flacco opens the year under center and believes the under is live all the way down to 4.5 wins.