R.J. White endorsed Bijan Robinson for Offensive Player of the Year, citing a realistic path to 2,000 yards from scrimmage—and potentially even 2,000 rushing yards—in Atlanta’s run-centric scheme. White compared the possible stat line to Christian McCaffrey’s award-winning season and believes Robinson’s usage ceiling in Arthur Smith’s offense justifies an aggressive futures ticket.

Alex Selesnick pitched Jahmyr Gibbs as an Offensive Player of the Year sleeper. Gibbs produced 20 total touchdowns while sharing work with David Montgomery last season; Selesnick expects an even larger workload now that Detroit is prepared to feature him. He anticipates the Lions defense regressing, which should push games toward high-scoring environments that maximize Gibbs’s explosive dual-threat skill set. Calling Gibbs "as talented as any running back in the NFL,” Selesnick forecast a monster stat line that would keep him in the OPOY conversation.

Larry Hartstein recommended betting Ja'Marr Chase at +950 to win Offensive Player of the Year. Hartstein pointed out that Chase won the receiving triple crown last season but lost the award to Saquon Barkley’s historic campaign. Chase remains Joe Burrow’s first read—evidenced by catching all five preseason targets for roughly 80 yards—and Cincinnati’s leaky defense should force shootout scripts that inflate volume. Hartstein sees no reason Chase cannot repeat or exceed last year’s production and claims the +950 price understates that possibility.

R.J. White backed Patrick Mahomes at +700 to pace the league in passing yards. He noted Mahomes had only four games with Rashee Rice and just two with Marquise Brown last season, while first-round rookie Xavier Worthy needed time to develop. With Rice potentially available for more than half the season, Brown stretching the field from Week 1, and Worthy entering year two of the scheme, White expects a much better receiver situation. Mahomes has averaged 300-plus passing yards per game three separate seasons, and White thinks that ceiling is back in play, offering better value than the shorter-priced favorites.

R.J. White bet Bijan Robinson at +900 to lead the league in rushing touchdowns. Robinson finished just two scores off the top as a rookie and erupted for six TDs in a three-game stretch once the Falcons’ line was intact. White projects Atlanta to lean even harder on Robinson and thinks 15-plus touchdowns is the median outcome, making 9-to-1 excellent value.

Larry Hartstein named Jordan Love as an outside shot to reach 40 touchdown passes. Hartstein recalled Love closing 2023 with three-TD outings seemingly every week and trusts Matt LaFleur’s scheme to keep manufacturing open receivers. If Love stays healthy, Hartstein believes the late-season pace can extend to a full 17-game slate, making his long odds in the 40-TD pool worth sprinkling.

R.J. White took Dak Prescott at +900 in the 40-plus touchdown market. White doubts many quarterbacks even sniff 40, so he wants a generous payoff and Prescott fits. Dallas’ running back room is unsettled, which pushes red-zone work toward the passing game. With CeeDee Lamb and newly acquired George Pickens stretching the field, White expects a mix of goal-line play-action scores and long bombs to give Prescott a legitimate chance to hit 40 TDs relative to the price.

Alex Selesnick went "all in" on Baker Mayfield to clear 40 passing touchdowns again. Mayfield is coming off a 4,500-yard, 40-TD campaign and now gets first-round rookie Emeka Egbuka alongside Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, red-zone weapon Jalen McMillan, and breakout TE Cade Otton. With Tristan Wirfs healthy, Selesnick calls the Buccaneers’ line a top-three unit and loves that all five starters return. He believes the offense can be "historically good," giving Mayfield a realistic path to repeat as the league’s touchdown leader at juicy odds.

R.J. White grabbed Patrick Mahomes at +1000 to finish as the passing-yards leader. Mahomes has topped 300 yards per game in three different seasons and White blames the recent dip on receiver injuries and shaky left-tackle play. With Rashee Rice expected back, rookie LT Josh Simmons in the fold, and Jalen Moore providing depth, White expects Kansas City to stay pass-first because the ground game still doesn’t scare anyone. The healthier supporting cast plus a throw-heavy scheme gives Mahomes 5,000-yard upside at a double-digit price.

Larry Hartstein said Dak Prescott is mis-priced at +900 to lead the league in passing yards. Hartstein pointed to Dallas trading for George Pickens to team with CeeDee Lamb, tight end Jake Ferguson, and deep threat Jalen Tolbert, giving Prescott a deeper arsenal than ever. Prescott already owns three seasons of 4,400-plus yards, so the ceiling is proven. With Joe Burrow the short favorite, Hartstein prefers the longer number on Prescott in a bet-on arm-talent, pass-heavy offense.

Larry Hartstein picked Dak Prescott in the ‘most passing yards’ futures market. Prescott already owns a 4,900-yard season and three others above 4,400. Hartstein expects Dallas’ defense to regress sharply—especially if Micah Parsons holds out—forcing shootouts. The front office added vertical threat George Pickens to a skill group that already boasts CeeDee Lamb and Jake Ferguson, and Prescott rekindled chemistry with Jalen Tolbert this summer. Hartstein likes the value relative to favorite Joe Burrow and sees a realistic path for Prescott to pace the league in yardage.

Alex Selesnick took Travis Kelce over 4.5 receiving touchdowns. He noted Kansas City’s passing attack cratered in 2024, but expects greater efficiency in 2025 and anticipates Kelce shifting into a red-zone specialist role as he ages. Given Patrick Mahomes’ trust in Kelce and the lack of proven WR options, Selesnick believes hitting five TDs is a conservative projection.

R.J. White bet Drake London under 7.5 receiving touchdowns. New quarterback Pennington reached the end zone in only one of three starts last year and still faces unclear efficiency over a full season. London scored just six times across his first 33 games and now lacks a secondary threat to draw coverage. White expects tight windows near the goal line and sees little evidence London suddenly posts eight TDs in what projects as a middling Atlanta offense.

Larry Hartstein played Zay Flowers under 4.5 receiving touchdowns. Flowers saw only seven red-zone targets last season—fifth on the Ravens behind both tight ends plus Rashod Bateman and Justice Hill. Baltimore added DeAndre Hopkins, whose primary fantasy value should come near the goal line, while Derrick Henry and Lamar Jackson remain elite rushing finishers. The crowded red-zone pecking order and run-first tendencies make five receiving TDs an uphill climb for Flowers.

Larry Hartstein recommended the under on Deebo Samuel’s season-long receiving yards (line not specified). Samuel posted career lows in yards per game, YAC and yards per route run in 2024 and turns 30 this season. Hartstein worries that Samuel’s bruising style and lengthy injury history are catching up. With Terry McLaurin expected to headline the attack and camp standout Jalen Lane earning snaps, Samuel’s target share could fall further. Hartstein views the health risk plus diminished efficiency as a clear signal to fade.

Alex Selesnick took Matthew Golden under 750.5 receiving yards. Golden struggled versus man coverage at Texas—an indicator Selesnick calls a red flag for first-year wideouts. Green Bay’s offense remains run-heavy and already spreads looks among several weapons, so Selesnick doubts Golden earns a full-time role. He sees the rookie functioning mainly as a situational deep threat and forecasts a difficult adjustment period, making 750 yards far too aggressive.

Alex Selesnick played Travis Hunter over 750.5 receiving yards. Hunter needs just 45 yards per game, and preseason usage (11 of 12 first-team snaps) showed the Jaguars plan to feature him offensively while easing defensive snaps. With Kirk, Engram and Gabe Davis gone, only Brian Thomas sits ahead of Hunter on the depth chart, so Selesnick projects an every-down role. He believes the number is depressed due to two-way-player concerns and thinks a fair line would be 850–900 yards.

Larry Hartstein played James Conner under 900.5 rushing yards. Conner is now 30 and has surpassed 200 carries only four times. Hartstein reported that rookie Trey Benson is “absolutely dominating camp” and even Conner has called him a co-No. 1 back. Benson averaged 5.5 yards per carry over his final six games last year before injury, has bulked up to 225 pounds and brings explosive playmaking. Hartstein expects Arizona to be an excellent rushing team, but in a true committee that makes 900 yards an unrealistic ask for Conner.

Alex Selesnick backed Alvin Kamara over 750 rushing yards, noting the veteran topped 900 yards in only 14 games last season. New play-caller Kellen Moore will funnel the offense through Kamara, and there is “very minimal” depth behind him—Kendre Miller is still unproven and battling durability issues. Selesnick praised a Saints offensive line that now boasts four first-rounders, including consecutive top-15 tackles Taliese Fuaga and Kelvin Banks, and believes Kamara could hit the number in 12–13 games with several 100-yard outings.

R.J. White took Bijan Robinson over 1,150.5 rushing yards at –120 and would still play it at 1,200. He reminded listeners that Robinson piled up 1,450 yards last year even though his first 20-carry game didn’t come until Week 7; from that point forward he was on a 1,663-yard pace. With an inexperienced quarterback and limited pass-catching depth behind Drake London, White expects Arthur Smith to lean on Robinson from the opening whistle. Robinson’s line sits below those of Saquon Barkley, Derrick Henry and Jonathan Taylor despite White’s projection that the Falcon back could lead the entire league in rushing.

Alex Selesnick said he is hammering Aaron Rodgers to finish below 23.5 season-long passing touchdowns. He would have opened the prop at 21.5–22.5 because Arthur Smith’s offenses have ranked near the bottom of the league in pass rate and passing TDs three straight years. Selesnick expects Pittsburgh to rely on its run game and defense, limiting overall drop-backs. He also questioned Rodgers’ durability at this stage of his career and called the current receiving corps—headlined by an inconsistent DK Metcalf—the weakest Rodgers has ever worked with, especially in the red-zone. Those factors give Selesnick “so many ways” for the veteran to stay under the posted total.

Alex Selesnick is under 23.5 touchdown passes for Aaron Rodgers. He stressed that Arthur Smith’s offenses have been among the league’s most run-oriented and conservative, capping passing volume and scores. Pittsburgh plans to lean on defense, shorten games, and grind clock—a script that rarely yields 24+ TDs. Selesnick also flagged durability concerns for Rodgers at this stage of his career, increasing the chance he misses games. He personally would set the line at 21–22, making 23.5 an easy fade.

Larry Hartstein likes Trevor Lawrence over 22.5 passing TDs, citing new OC Liam Cohen’s résumé—he coaxed 41 touchdowns from Baker Mayfield last season. Lawrence now throws to BTJ, multipurpose threat Travis Hunter, and sneaky red-zone option Brenton Strange. Camp reports highlight improved footwork and faster reads; through two preseason outings Lawrence has only three incompletions (one a drop, one a throwaway). Hartstein believes Cohen’s timing-based system will fix Lawrence’s red-zone woes and push him well past 22 scores.

RJ White bet Sam Darnold under 20.5 touchdown passes. Darnold’s 2024 success owed much to Kevin O’Connell’s scheme and Justin Jefferson, neither of which he’ll have in Seattle. The Seahawks’ pass-catcher group is unproven, the offensive line remains a liability, and Darnold must master a new system. White added that rookie Jalen Milroe could siphon goal-line snaps or late-season starts, further eroding touchdown volume. Behind a porous line Darnold would likely need 17 healthy starts to hit 21 scores, a scenario White views as improbable.

Larry Hartstein played Josh Allen’s season-long passing yards under, citing Joe Brady’s shift to 50 % run rate after taking over the offense in November 2023. The Bills finished fourth in rush attempts and Allen still barely approached the posted total while playing all 17 games. With rookie Keon Coleman headlining an inexperienced receiver room, Khalil Shakir nicked up, and an easy schedule that could lead to early blowouts—and thus fewer late-game throws or even late-season rest—Hartstein expects Buffalo to double down on its successful ground-heavy approach, keeping Allen short of the market number.

RJ White is fading Justin Herbert under 3,650.5 yards. New OC Greg Roman has coordinated bottom-five pass-attempt offenses in 10 of 11 seasons, and the Chargers’ offseason—adding power backs Omari and Hampton plus Najee Harris—signals a ground-heavy identity. Rashawn Slater’s season-ending injury pushes rookie Joe Alt to left tackle and weakens the right side, increasing sack and injury risk. Combine lower volume with the possibility Herbert misses time and White calls 3,650.5 "aggressive" for this version of the Bolts.

RJ White likes Bo Nix over 3,500.5 passing yards at –105. Nix threw for 3,775 last season despite a conservative early-season script; his final 10 games projected to 4,300 over 17 weeks. Denver added Evan Engram, saw Marvin Mims surge late, and rookie Troy Franklin is reportedly pushing for a starting spot—so much so the team felt comfortable trading away veteran depth. White highlighted Sean Payton’s Saints offenses finishing top-5 in passing yards in each of Payton’s first 11 seasons, suggesting Payton may have found his new Drew Brees. At a number he calls "the lowest we’ll see on Nix for a decade," White is all in on the over.

Alex Selesnick backed Bryce Young to beat 3,150 passing yards, noting it translates to only 187 per game. Young finished last year on a nine-TD, zero-INT tear over four contests and now gets head coach Dave Canales, whom Selesnick called a proven quarterback whisperer. Carolina shored up protection and drafted wideout Tetairoa McMillan—comped to Mike Evans—to give Young a true top target. With better weapons and scheme plus the confidence gained late in 2024, Selesnick doesn’t believe Young even needs a "big" season to clear this prop.

Larry Hartstein said Jordan Love will sail past 3,550 passing yards. Before Love’s groin issue last season, Green Bay averaged 36 throws and 270 yards per game, production Hartstein expects to return now that the quarterback is healthy. The Packers upgraded the line with Aaron Banks, drafted vertical weapon Matthew Golden, and bring back the entire 2024 receiving corps with hopes Christian Watson stays on the field. Hartstein reminded listeners Love led the league with a 16.5 % deep-throw rate, evidence Matt LaFleur prefers an aggressive down-field approach when the QB can extend plays. With volume, health, and new toys all pointing up, 3,550 would require only 209 yards a week—well within reach.

Patrick McDonald tacked Brian Harman onto his card at 65-1, calling the number too long for a recent major winner in a 30-man, no-cut event. McDonald believes East Lake will reward fairway finders who convert opportunities on receptive Bermuda greens, both of which are Harman specialties. He noted that Harman was on his FedEx Cup watch list even before the FedEx St. Jude and sees the left-hander’s precision game and Southeastern turf history as perfect ingredients for an upset if the favorites stumble.

Jason Sobel advised locking in Scottie Scheffler at +180 to win the Tour Championship/FedEx Cup right now rather than waiting for tournament week. At the moment, Scheffler only needs to overtake one player on the points list instead of beating 29 players once play begins. Sobel added that he doubts Ludwig Aberg or Robert MacIntyre will erase Scheffler’s cushion before East Lake, so bettors are essentially paying the same +180 price for a much simpler ask. If Scheffler enters the finale only four shots back, the number almost certainly shortens, making the current price the better expected-value play.

Sia Nejad anchored his early betting card with Cam Young at 30-1, adding Sam Burns and Harris English as secondary bullets. Nejad likes Young’s elite driver and overall tee-to-green profile—a perfect fit given that seven of last year’s top eight finishers at East Lake were also top-eight tee-to-green. With the TOUR likely to set the course up for birdies to boost drama, Nejad wants an explosive scorer and feels the 30-1 price is longer than it should be in a no-cut, 30-man field. He called the number “my card” on the spot, signalling conviction in Young’s ceiling.

Jason Sobel recommended taking a shot on Sam Burns in the outright and “without” markets for the Tour Championship. Sobel compared the event to a first-round-leader bet—volatile and rewarding players who can catch fire—and argued Burns is tailor-made for that environment. The LSU product is solid enough tee-to-green to handle East Lake’s ball-striking demands, yet owns one of the streakiest putters on TOUR, capable of pouring in birdies if the PGA sets the course up easier, as Sobel expects. Burns has not won all season, but Sobel believes his ceiling is high enough to steal the FedEx Cup in a 30-player field if he posts one of his trademark “roll-everything-in” weeks.

Patrick McDonald said he is betting Russell Henley at 25-1 to win the Tour Championship. McDonald stressed that East Lake is a ball-striker’s track: last year the top four finishers ranked 1-4 in strokes-gained tee-to-green and seven of the top eight were inside that same metric. With Bermuda rough penalizing misses and the layout playing a lot like TPC Southwind, he wants an ultra-accurate driver who lives in the fairway. Henley ranks near the top of this season’s SG: Approach board and is one of the most accurate drivers left in the playoffs. In a 30-man, no-cut field, McDonald called 25-1 “disrespectful” value and even joked that Keegan Bradley should pair Scheffler and Henley together at the Ryder Cup—his way of underscoring how elite Henley’s current form is.

Claudia Bellofatto argued the +205 price on Dricus Du Plessis is too wide and represents pure value. She thinks the betting market is charging a "hype tax" for Khamzat Chimaev’s viral jaw-crank of Robert Whittaker, ignoring Du Plessis’s own 9-0 tear in less time than Chimaev’s 8-0 run. Bellofatto highlighted Du Plessis’s 6.12 significant strikes landed per minute, 54 % striking defence, switch-stance blitzes, and proven five-round gas tank (two recent 25-minute fights versus Sean Strickland and Israel Adesanya) as edges that could flip the late moments of a championship bout. She also questioned whether Chimaev can sustain his frenetic wrestling pace for 25 minutes on U.S. soil after three years fighting mostly in the UAE. With those intangibles plus stylistic chaos that Chimaev cannot game-plan for, Bellofatto recommends grabbing the underdog moneyline before books correct the number.

Danny Brasco called Edson Barboza by knockout his favorite bet of the entire UFC 319 slate. Brasco believes Barboza’s trademark kicking arsenal will translate even better now that the Brazilian has bulked to 155 lbs, while Drakkar Klose’s durability is eroding. Klose needed neck surgery after a weigh-in shove and was violently stopped by Joel Alvarez in his return; Brasco thinks that shaky medical history plus Klose’s high-guard stance leaves him wide open for Barboza’s body kicks and flying knees. With Barboza hungry to prove he still has highlight-reel power, Brasco prefers the KO prop to the moneyline, expecting the veteran to close the show inside the distance rather than rely on judges.

Claudia Bellofatto said the cleanest way to attack the UFC 319 main event is the Over 2.5 Takedowns prop on Khamzat Chimaev at –105. Chimaev has a 100 % takedown-defence rate himself but, more importantly for this wager, he relentlessly pursues his own shots—averaging 4.31 completed takedowns per 15 minutes and attempting one every 48 seconds he is upright. Bellofatto reminded viewers that Chimaev launched 12 attempts (landing 4) against Kamaru Usman and 4 attempts (landing 2) on Robert Whittaker. Opponent Dricus Du Plessis stops only 50 % of tries, so even if the South African pops back up, every mat return counts. Because Du Plessis’s cardio and durability should let the fight stretch beyond the opening storm, Bellofatto feels three—or more—completed takedowns is the most probable statistical outcome and the nearly even price is mis-hung.

Claudia Bellofatto skipped the money-line and laid ‑180 on the fight-to-go-decision prop. Her case: Lerone Murphy has evolved from knockout hunter to patient wrestler, with each of his last five victories coming via judges. Aaron Pico owns Olympic-trial wrestling chops plus serious boxing pop, but is debuting after an 18-month layoff and has historically taken risks he will likely curb over three rounds. Murphy’s cardio questions and Pico’s wrestling edge cancel each other out in Claudia’s eyes, making a 15-minute back-and-forth more probable than a finish. She leans Pico slightly but believes the safest angle is simply banking on the judges’ scorecards.

Danny Brasco grabbed Jared Cannonier at +165, arguing the line gives Cannonier just a 38 percent implied win rate despite his proven five-round gas tank and resume versus elite 185-ers (Adesanya, Strickland, Rodrigues). He acknowledged Michael “Venom” Page’s elusive footwork and welterweight highlight reel but questions MVP’s ceiling at middleweight after a flattering debut over Shara Magomedov, whose stock has since dropped. Brasco wants Cannonier to “sprint,” cut Page off with MMA Lab footwork, and let his notorious power speak, believing sustained pressure neutralizes Page’s matador game. He also flagged a market discrepancy: Cannonier +3.5 rounds sits at ‑165 (≈70 % win one round), suggesting the outright money-line may be undervalued.

Claudia Bellofatto paired the Oleksiejczuk money-line with the fight to end inside 1.5 rounds at +110. She pointed out that six of Oleksiejczuk’s last eight bouts have closed inside the opening frame and each of his last five victories came by knockout. The Pole is landing 5.27 significant strikes per minute with 51 percent accuracy, numbers Bellofatto contrasted with Meerschaert’s “loose defense” and fading chin. Books agree on violence – the ‘doesn’t go distance’ prop sits at ‑380 – but Claudia likes the plus money because Oleksiejczuk is also seven years younger, owns clear hand-speed and has shored up defensive grappling since moving to Brazil and training with “the fighting nerds” under Kyle Barallo. In her view GM3’s only path is the mat, and he will not survive long enough to get it there.

Bellofatto built a two-legger at +110: Michal ‘Hussar’ Oleksiejczuk money-line paired with under 1.5 rounds. Books have ‘fight doesn’t go distance’ juiced to –380 because it is classic striker-vs-grappler violence—Oleksiejczuk’s southpaw body hooks and blitzes have produced nine first-round KOs, while Gerald Meerschaert owns 27 career submissions. Bellofatto believes Oleksiejczuk’s hand speed and pressure make an early knockout more likely than another Meerschaert hail-mary choke, so hitching his ML to the short total turns heavy chalk into plus money. She purposely avoided piling on extra legs, calling the +110 number simple but strong given the matchup’s binary, finish-heavy profile.

Danny Brasco bet the Ruziboev-Battle middleweight bout to GO the distance, projecting a grinding, cage-heavy decision. Battle is a former welterweight who repeatedly missed 170 and now faces a true 185-er: Ruziboev stands a literal head taller and brings a 36-9 record but has not suffered a finish since 2016. Likewise, Battle has avoided stoppage since the second fight of his career. Brasco expects Battle to pursue dirty-boxing and wall-and-stall tactics but doubts he can ‘weight-bully’ the naturally bigger Uzbek. Ruziboev’s lone UFC defeat came to Joaquin Buckley at an ill-advised 170 cut; back at middleweight he should survive Battle’s clinch pressure while landing the cleaner outside strikes. With both men sporting reliable gas tanks and reputations for toughness, Brasco views the decision prop—price not stated but implied plus money—as the sharp side.

Bellofatto played ‘fight does NOT go the distance’ at –125 in the Elliott–Asakura flyweight clash. She noted Tim Elliott’s 47 % takedown accuracy and perpetual scramble style but warned his 38-year-old frame and hands-low entries leave defensive holes. Asakura owns vicious knees, kicks and one-punch power—his last three bouts ended inside the first seven minutes—and told reporters he is specifically timing a knockout if Elliott level-changes with his hands down. Elliott has not been KO’d in years, yet Bellofatto believes his year-plus layoff and the weight-class’s unforgiving speed make that streak vulnerable. Conversely, if Elliott hits a clean chain-wrestling sequence, Asakura’s grappling gaps could see him tap quickly, illustrated by his lone UFC loss coming via submission to Alexandre Pantoja. Either scenario ends before the horn, making the –125 price attractive.

Danny Brasco laid –135 on Edson Barboza, arguing the 39-year-old’s return to lightweight restores both power and durability. Barboza just went five rounds with elite featherweights and should carry even more snap now that he is no longer draining to 145. Brasco expects Barboza’s trademark switch kicks and uppercuts to punish Drakkar Klose, a fighter he labels hittable and injury-prone—Klose was wobbled by a Joel Alvarez jab last time out and once required neck surgery after a Jeremy Stephens shove at weigh-ins. Both men are similar in age, but Barboza has stayed far more active. Brasco doubts Klose can impose his wrestler-boxer clinch game on a full-size 155-pound Barboza and thinks one clean body kick or counter right ends the night, making the modest favorite price a buy.

Claudia Bellofatto built an alt-method ticket at –115 that cashes if Chase Hooper wins by submission or Alexander Hernandez wins by decision. Hooper has ended three of his last four victories with rear-naked chokes and will shoot relentlessly the moment he feels space. Hernandez owns a 71 % takedown-defense rate, logged 4-of-5 takedowns and 65 % control time against Kurt Hallibow, and has earned each of his last three wins on the scorecards. Bellofatto added that Hernandez’s nonstop blitzes sap his cardio, making a late-fight scramble reversal into a Hooper choke entirely plausible, while a clean wrestling-and-boxing approach lets Hernandez coast to a points win. The double-chance line therefore captures what she believes are the only realistic endings and chops Hooper’s heavy money-line juice down to near pick-em odds.

R.J. White played David Njoku UNDER 5.5 receiving touchdowns at ‑120. He argues the market is pricing in last year’s six-score outlier that was fueled by Joe Flacco’s late-season YOLO stretch. White doubts a 40-year-old Flacco will start—or play as aggressively—over a full season, and he expects rookie Harold Fannin to siphon red-zone snaps as the year progresses. Njoku has surpassed five TDs only once in his career, so White views 5.5 as an inflated number that assumes the friendliest quarterback scenario. With a likely QB carousel and added target competition, he sees the under as the sharper bet.

Alex PropStarz is not sprinting to the window but would play the Saints over 4.5 wins if forced. He stressed their third-easiest schedule: only Buffalo, Los Angeles and Tampa Bay reached double-digit wins last season among their opponents, and he calls the NFC South the league’s weakest division. PropStarz expects Kellen Moore’s motion-heavy offense to squeeze competent play out of a shaky QB room and believes an average defense bolstered by Justin Reid can steal a couple of games. His projection lands in the 5–6 win range, enough for a small lean to the over.

Claudia Bellofatto also endorsed the Saints under 4.5 wins, attracted by the plus-money price. Her skepticism centers on crucial unknowns: first-year head coach Kellen Moore, an injury-marred quarterback in Tyler Shough whose deep-ball accuracy and availability are both question marks, and a roster she ranks bottom-five at most position groups. The Saints went 0-7 without Derek Carr last year; Claudia doubts this QB room fares any better. Even with a soft schedule and improved health, she pegs the realistic ceiling at four wins and prefers the under at plus odds.

Sia Nejad revealed he already bet Saints under 4.5 wins at +125 on The Early Edge and doubled down here. He thinks New Orleans will enter the soft part of its schedule with only one or two victories, at which point the franchise shifts into "experimental mode" to secure a top-three draft pick. Nejad pointed out the quarterback room of Tyler Shough, Spencer Rattler and Jake Haener is one of the league’s worst, and every defensive position group rates bottom-five by his power numbers. He does not see a realistic path to five wins even with the NFL’s third-easiest slate.