Sean Zerillo strongly recommends betting Corbin Carroll to lead MLB in runs scored. His modeling indicates that Carroll wins this prop 10-11% of the time, equating to fair odds of around 9 to 1. Carroll endured a slow start last season due to injuries yet still finished fifth league-wide with 120 runs and actually led all hitters in runs during the second half. Zerillo highlights a notable change—Carroll started pulling more fly balls in the air, significantly boosting his power potential. Given Carroll’s elite speed and discipline (high walk-rate), he's primed for frequent scoring opportunities and easy doubles or triples. Zerillo bet it himself at 20 to 1 but still advises it's good value at anything better than 10 to 1.

Sean Zerillo endorses Jacob deGrom as a high-upside bet at 4 to 1 odds to lead MLB in strikeouts, despite being highly injury prone. Zerillo incorporates injuries into his modeling and asserts that even if deGrom has a high (70%) injury risk, he's still mathematically a decent value at current odds. DeGrom offers significant ceiling potential, making him an intriguing long-shot given his elite strikeout rate and dominance when healthy.

Sean Zerillo sees the Toronto Blue Jays as significantly undervalued entering the season, notably recommending betting their season win total over 78.5 or 79.5 wins. He questions the strength and depth of divisional rivals like the Yankees, notably after Gerrit Cole’s injury. Due to the uncertainty in the AL East, Zerillo strongly believes Toronto is a legit threat to reach the postseason, further suggesting correlated longshot betting opportunities centered around Vladimir Guerrero Jr.'s MVP, hits leader, and RBI leader props as potential paths to success, given that any Toronto playoff push would likely rely on Vlad's elite production.

Sean Zerillo suggests betting Logan Gilbert for AL Cy Young as an under-the-radar candidate. Gilbert notably led MLB pitchers in strikeout-minus-walk rate during the second half of last season. Zerillo emphasizes key improvements—Gilbert saw increased velocity and notably altered his pitch mix, giving him further upside entering this season. His growth trajectory makes him a value Cy Young candidate, offering bettors hidden potential in the markets.

Sean Zerillo highlights Jacob Wilson as a strong Rookie of the Year candidate with major offensive upside this MLB season. Wilson dominated minor leagues last season, batting over .400 across 70 minor league games and appeared headed for Rookie of the Year contention before a hamstring strain prematurely ended his MLB stint. Now healthy and set to play in a newly offense-friendly ballpark in Oakland, Zerillo considers Wilson primed for success, making him a compelling bet for Rookie of the Year honors at relatively appealing odds.

Sean Zerillo identifies betting Cleveland Guardians to miss the playoffs as possibly his strongest bet on the board. His analytical projection models the Guardians' playoff chances at just 29%, which equates to fair odds around -240. Meanwhile, betting markets offer a significantly shorter -140 line, giving a huge value gap and roughly a 15% edge. Zerillo notes he's actually bet this multiple times already throughout the offseason (at -110, -120, and still sees substantial value currently at -140), stressing anyone making a singular preseason futures bet should strongly consider Guardians to miss playoffs due to compelling mathematical advantage.