Sean Paul recommended backing the Dodgers on the moneyline at -140 (playable to -160). He argued Los Angeles owns a decisive offensive edge, posting a 120 wRC+ since May 10 (4th-best in MLB) while carrying the league’s lowest strikeout rate (18.6%) and a 10% walk rate that ranks 3rd. Max Muncy’s return to form—144 wRC+ over the last 14 games—adds depth behind Shohei Ohtani. On the mound, Dustin May’s 52.1% ground-ball rate gives him an escape valve even though his batted-ball metrics sit below the 30th percentile. May only needs to limit a sluggish Guardians lineup that owns the second-worst wRC+ in that same span, the 4th-fewest homers, and just four hitters above a 100 wRC+. Meanwhile, Cleveland starter Tanner Bibee’s surface ERA (3.57) masks a 5.10 FIP, a strikeout rate that has cratered from 9.69 to 6.67 K/9, a chase rate in the 6th percentile, and a career-worst 1.71 HR/9. Paul called Bibee “fade-worthy” and noted Cleveland’s 42% fly-ball profile plays into May’s sinker. With both talent gap and matchup metrics lining up, Paul sees the Dodgers as undervalued favorites and advises betting their ML.

Chris Raybon expects second-round pick Tyler Shough to win the Saints’ three-way quarterback competition and start Week 1. Shough is the oldest QB in this rookie class and was widely labeled the most pro-ready passer behind Cam Ward, a profile Raybon says teams do not sit on the bench. Moore has already praised Shough pre-snap command, hinting the offense will borrow Moore’s trademark up-tempo approach that produced top-10 situation-neutral pace with both Dallas and the Chargers. While Raybon conceded Shough may struggle to "maximize" the playbook immediately, the volume alone (Moore offenses have averaged 37.8 passes per game) places Shough on the superflex radar and makes him a viable QB3 stash in best-ball tournaments where every late spike matters.

Koerner projected sixth-overall pick Ashton Jeanty for immediate bell-cow volume in a Pete Carroll-Chip Kelly marriage that screams run-heavy. Carroll has historically ranked top-5 in neutral-script rush rate and, according to Koerner, specifically lobbied for Jeanty 96th-percentile burst to recreate the Marshawn Lynch era. Kelly’s collegiate offenses funneled 22-25 touches per game to a lead back and his lone NFL season calling plays for Philly produced a league-high 321 carries for LeSean McCoy. Koerner dismissed concerns about Michael Mayer and Brock Bowers siphoning red-zone looks, noting that Kelly still fed McCoy 59 targets alongside a prime Jordan Matthews in 2014. With Jeanty already taking first-team reps and reporting weight-room numbers north of 600-lb squats, Koerner ranked him RB11 in early projections and urged taking him as early as Round 2 in redraft and best-ball formats.

Chris Raybon said Dyami Brown is a best-ball free square because Liam Cohen plans to mimic his 2023 Bucs playbook that regularly trotted out four wide receivers and peppered backs on check-downs. Jacksonville’s WR4 should see real snaps after Brown signed a two-year, $10 million deal identical to Tutu Atwell’s in Los Angeles, a signal Cohen views him as more than depth. Raybon reminded listeners that Tampa’s WR4 produced three usable fantasy weeks last year and argued Brown’s career 14.9-yard aDOT and 4.45 speed give him weekly home-run potential if Trevor Lawrence logs the anticipated volume bump. At a near-undrafted ADP, Raybon advised scooping Brown in the final two rounds of best-ball drafts whenever stacking Jaguars.

Sean Koerner said keeping Josh McDaniels as offensive coordinator is a sneaky long-term win for Drake Maye. McDaniels coaxed Mac Jones’ career year in 2021 (24 TDs, 67% completion) and, after flameouts in Denver and Las Vegas, is unlikely to land another head-coaching gig. That means Maye could enjoy rare play-caller continuity for multiple seasons — a luxury few young QBs get. Koerner expects McDaniels to replicate his quick-game concepts that generated a 6.8% sack rate and 69% first-read throws for Jones, traits that fit May’s decisive style coming out of UNC. While Koerner cautioned the current roster is still rebuilding and Diggs’ Week 1 health is pivotal, he upgraded May’s three-year projection and endorsed him as an upside QB2 in superflex formats.

Sean Koerner said Clint Kubiak’s arrival in Seattle quietly tilts the offense back toward the backfield and specifically boosts Kenneth Walker. Kubiak’s lone year calling plays for New Orleans fed Alvin Kamara 86 targets—20 on designed screens—and Koerner expects that philosophy to follow him west. He emphasized that Kubiak’s outside-zone run game mirrors what Walker dominated at Michigan State and differs from Shane Waldron’s mixed concepts that sometimes bounced Walker too far outside. With a healthier interior line, Koerner projects Walker’s workload to rise from 15.1 touches per game to 18-19 while preserving his explosive 4.6 yards-after-contact clip. He also tagged Zach Charbonnet as an elite handcuff (“any Walker ding turns Charbonnet into a top-five play”), but the headline takeaway is that Walker’s ceiling jumps a full tier under Kubiak, making him a round-three target in both best ball and season-long leagues.

Chris Raybon framed Christian Kirk as “this offense’s Cooper Kupp.” He pointed out that every branch of the McVay tree leans on a slot-centric alpha, and new OC Nick Caley just spent two seasons scheming Kupp and Puka Nacua into 30-plus percent target shares. Raybon expects Caley to copy-paste those layered option routes for Kirk, who owns a career 2.05 yards-per-route mark from the slot. With Tank Dell’s recovery doubtful and rookie wideouts Higgins and Noel still learning, Raybon believes Kirk could open 2024 commanding double-digit targets most weeks. He projected 115–120 looks and labeled Kirk a screaming value in Round 8 of best-ball and PPR drafts as a safe WR3 who can post WR1 spike weeks.

Sean Koerner called Dalton Schultz the quiet winner of Houston’s coordinator change. Nick Caley coached tight ends for McVay and his offenses live in 11 personnel that funnels lay-up targets to the Y-tight end on boot and mesh concepts. Rams tight ends averaged a 19% target share under Caley despite competing with Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua; Koerner expects a similar design to give Schultz near-every-down routes. With Stefon Diggs gone and Tank Dell’s availability doubtful, Schultz projects for a career-high 90–95 targets and low-end TE1 production. At a TE17 price he’s "the last every-week starter" and an easy stacking partner with Stroud in best-ball tournaments.

Sean Koerner said Nick Caley’s arrival as offensive coordinator is exactly what C.J. Stroud needs to erase last year’s face-plant. Caley spent the past two seasons under Sean McVay running the Rams passing game, a background Koerner believes will translate into heavier pre-snap motion, a true 11-personnel base and cleaner first reads for Stroud. Inside buzz is that Caley will hand Stroud far more freedom to audible—something Bobby Slowik rarely allowed—which should push Houston’s pass rate back into the league’s top half. The Texans also upgraded a battered offensive line and imported Christian Kirk plus Day-2 rookies Higgins and Noel to make sure there are healthy targets once Tank Dell’s likely season-long absence and Stefon Diggs’ departure kick in. Koerner chalked Stroud’s sophomore crater (18 TDs, 31 sacks) up mostly to protection issues and now projects roughly 4,200 yards with 26-28 scores, good for mid-QB1 numbers at a current QB15 ADP. He urged drafters to scoop Stroud as a late-round ceiling play in best ball and a cheap upside QB1 in redraft.

Chris Raybon pointed out that Taysom Hill’s late-season knee surgery is expected to sideline him for all of 2024, removing the gadget QB who siphoned nine red-zone carries and six touchdowns from Alvin Kamara last year. With Hill gone and Moore historically preferring traditional red-zone concepts (his Dallas units ranked bottom-six in QB rush attempts inside the five), Raybon projects Kamara’s share of goal-line touches to jump from 38 % to roughly 65 %. Even if the overall offense is volatile, that touchdown infusion vaults Kamara back into mid-RB2 territory for season-long leagues and gives him weekly ceiling in best-ball formats where TD variance is king.

Sean Koerner urged caution on Chris Olave after noting two major red flags. First, credible beat‐writers have repeated that Kellen Moore is open to moving Olave for draft capital, creating either a mid-summer holdout or an unfamiliar playbook if he’s dealt. Second, Olave has already suffered three documented concussions; Koerner worries a fourth could trigger an IR stint under the league’s stricter 2024 protocols. The upside is obvious—Moore historically force-feeds his No. 1 wideout from the slot (Keenan Allen and DeVonta Smith both logged 30-plus percent slot rates and 27-plus percent target shares under Moore). But with a rookie quarterback (Tyler Shuck) likely starting and Olave’s availability shaky, Koerner dropped him to the bottom of his WR2 tier and advised diversifying with steadier options in Rounds 3-4 of best-ball or redraft leagues.

Sean Koerner downplayed concerns about a post-Liam-Cohen hangover, explaining that new OC John Grizzard already masterminded Tampa’s league-best 51% third-down conversion rate as situational strategist. Because Todd Bowles again promoted from within, Koerner expects the same shotgun-heavy, quick-read scheme that helped Baker Mayfield set career highs in touchdowns (28) and EPA per drop-back. Grizzard’s specialty is sequencing high-leverage downs, so Koerner anticipates the Bucs to remain top-10 in pass rate over expectation, preserving the weekly volume that fed Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and kept Rachaad White’s receiving floor intact. Koerner left Mayfield parked in the mid-QB2 tier but urged drafters not to discount him in superflex or as a cheap stacking partner with Evans in DFS tournaments.

Raybon noted that as Beychal Tutin hype snowballs, drafters are letting Travis Etienne slide two to three rounds in best-ball rooms—even though Liam Cohen’s Tampa backfield supported two fantasy-viable runners (Rachaad White and Bucky Irving) in the same game. Cohen has publicly stressed throwing to the backs and Jaguars insiders keep floating trade rumors around Etienne, but Raybon thinks those whispers are suppressing price more than actual touch probability. He reminded listeners that Etienne still owns 4.45 speed, a 10% career target share and Jacksonville declined his fifth-year option, giving the club every incentive to showcase him before 2025 free agency. With goal-line vulture Tank Bigsby also discounted, Raybon called the entire trio a portfolio play and recommended scooping whichever Jaguar back falls past ADP in best-ball builds.

Chris Raybon compared Stefon Diggs’ 2024 outlook with the Patriots to Davante Adams’ first year under Josh McDaniels in Las Vegas. Adams commanded a 32% target share and led the NFL in touchdown catches at age 30. Raybon argued a similar funnel is in play because New England’s surrounding pass-catchers are thin and McDaniels historically features a true WR1 (Adams, Wes Welker, Demaryius Thomas). Diggs still posted a 26% target share and top-15 open-rate in Buffalo before an injury-marred finish, so Raybon sees talent erosion as overstated. With Drake May willing to pepper a favorite read, Raybon believes Diggs retains top-five weekly upside and labeled him a priority pick in Rounds 4-5 of best-ball drafts where ceiling matters most.

Chris Raybon said the Lions’ third-round selection of Arkansas wideout Isaac Teslaw — a receiver praised mostly for his run-blocking — signals that Detroit may lean even harder on the ground game under new OC John Morton. Raybon noted that Teslaw’s blocking chops plus Ben Johnson’s departure make it logical to shift volume toward the backfield. A heavier run rate would funnel extra carries and screens to Jahmyr Gibbs, who already owns the league’s fourth-highest explosive-run rate (12% of totes went 10+ yards). Raybon called Gibbs the primary beneficiary of a "keep it on schedule" offense, projecting a bump from last year’s 14.5 touches per game to 17-18 and reinforcing him as a second-round smash in both best-ball and season-long formats.

Koerner warned that the Lions offense has "nowhere to go but down" after Ben Johnson’s departure, even though Detroit promoted from within by naming passing-game coordinator John Morton OC. Any drop-off in play design or sequencing could disproportionately hurt Jared Goff, a quarterback Koerner called highly scheme-dependent. While he isn’t slashing Detroit projections yet, Koerner is baking in a modest efficiency downgrade and recommends tempering expectations for Goff in drafts until we see Morton replicate Johnson’s magic.

Chris Raybon advised moving off Cole Kmet because Ben Johnson typically uses only one pass-route-running tight end. Detroit averaged 1.08 TE routes per snap under Johnson, leaving Brock Wright around a 30 % route share when Sam LaPorta was healthy. Raybon pointed out that even with a 90 % route rate last year, Kmet often logged zero-target games (the "Cade Otton award"). With heavy competition from DJ Moore, Rome Odunze, Luther Burden and rookie Colston Loveland, Raybon doesn’t see enough targets for Kmet to break spike-weeks in best-ball or hold TE1 value in season-long.

Koerner compared Colston Loveland to both Sam LaPorta and prime Jimmy Graham, calling him a "legit" pass-catcher who also blocks well. He noted Ben Johnson personally selecting Loveland in Round 2, the same draft capital Detroit invested in LaPorta. While sharing targets with Cole Kmet, DJ Moore, Rome Odunze and Luther Burden may cap 2024 volume, Koerner believes Loveland’s talent and Johnson’s TE-friendly scheme make him a long-term dynasty smash and an intriguing late best-ball flier.

Sean Koerner said Ben Johnson’s arrival in Chicago should turbo-charge Caleb Williams’ second-year leap. Johnson’s Detroit offenses led the league with roughly 3,500 first-read passing yards, while the Bears were second-to-last at just over 2,500. Koerner expects Johnson to script quicker, more defined first reads that let Williams get the ball out instead of absorbing sacks (PFF charged the rookie with 17 self-inflicted sacks). Add an upgraded line plus weapons like DJ Moore, Rome Odunze, Luther Burden and rookie tight end Colston Loveland, and Koerner projects a sizeable efficiency spike that justifies Williams’ rising QB7-QB8 best-ball ADP.

PJ Walsh said Action PRO’s in-house projections make the Reds a worthwhile wager at the current -125 consensus moneyline versus the Pirates. According to Walsh, the model shows Cincinnati should be a larger favorite, creating what he called a "very nice edge" for bettors. With Brady Singer toeing the rubber against Andrew Heaney in Wednesday’s 12:35 p.m. ET matinee, Walsh urged locking in the Reds before the market corrects the mispricing.

Whitchurch played OVER 1.5 walks for Michael Lorenzen at –180, projecting regression toward the veteran’s 8.5 % career BB% after a two-walk total across his last three starts. He emphasized that Lorenzen still handed out 13 free passes in six April outings and now faces San Francisco, the No. 3 lineup in walk rate versus righties (11.2 %). With Lorenzen’s zone rate down nearly three points year-over-year and the Giants rarely chasing, Collin expects the right-hander to revert to his usual two-plus passes.

Collin Whitchurch grabbed OVER 0.5 walks for Tarik Skubal at –180 despite the left-hander issuing only six free passes in 54 innings. The zag is about matchup: St. Louis ranks eighth in walk rate vs LHP (10.1 %) and boasts five hitters—Lars Nootbaar, Ivan Herrera, Nolan Arenado, Willson Contreras and rookie Masyn Winn—above double-digit BB%. Whitchurch notes that three of Skubal’s six walks came in a single early-April game, so the line may be overly influenced by a tiny recent sample. He thinks the Cardinals’ patience forces at least one four-pitch pass often enough to justify the juice.

Zerillo makes Toronto –110 behind Chris Bassitt’s rejuvenated arsenal and grabbed the Jays at +110, playable to even money. Bassitt has slashed his walk rate in half (4.5 %), posted a career-best 25 % strikeout rate, and coaxed chases 33 % of the time thanks to sharper slider locations. Meanwhile, San Diego’s lineup drops nearly 30 points of wRC+ against right-handers compared to lefties, and the Friars’ middle relief still ranks bottom-10 in both WHIP and xFIP. With projected pick-’em odds, Zerillo sees any plus-price as automatic value on Toronto.

Although he ultimately played only the total, Sean Zerillo said Pittsburgh is worth a look at +115 and would bet them down to +108. His model makes the game Pirates –101. The edge stems from Cincinnati’s bottom-five defense against lefties (wRC+ 80) and Martinez’s limited ceiling beyond six innings, while Falter benefits from Pittsburgh’s vastly improved defense. Zerillo suggests readers who want side action can fire on the Buccos provided the number stays in the double-digit plus range.

Collin Whitchurch recommended taking the Pirates first-five-innings moneyline at plus money (preferred +105 to +110) despite Pittsburgh’s recent offensive funk. The angle is a straight fade of Cincinnati’s lineup against left-handed pitching: the Reds own a WRC+ roughly 20 points below league average versus southpaws, and only everyday infielder Santiago Espinal grades as an above-average bat in those matchups. Lefties force David Bell to bench or weaken T.J. Friedl, Will Benson (fresh off NL Player of the Week), and Gavin Lux, while switch-hitting star Elly De La Cruz carries an OPS nearly .200 lower from the right side. Bailey Falter gives Pittsburgh that platoon edge and is quietly dealing—16⅔ IP, 1 ER over his last three starts, leaning on a four-seamer he throws 40 % of the time with elite extension that jumps on hitters. Opposing him is Nick Martinez, whom Whitchurch labeled a “ticking time bomb”: his DRA (4.76) sits more than a run higher than his surface ERA, swinging-strike rate has fallen below 10 %, and first-pitch strike percentage is the worst since before his initial NPB stint. Weather could delay the game, but as long as plus money is available and Falter is confirmed, Whitchurch feels the Buccos are the right side through five.

Sean Zerillo projected the Diamondbacks at +180 and therefore wants +200 or better before firing on their moneyline. The handicap is two-fold: Arizona just tagged Yoshinobu Yamamoto for five runs with only four strikeouts—both season-worst marks for the Japanese ace—and Zerillo thinks that outing was not a fluke. Yamamoto’s average fastball velocity has lost a full tick since April, his sinker is down 1.1 mph, his splitter almost two, and Pitching+ has dropped from 105 to 101. Meanwhile Bot-ERA has risen to 4.40. Injuries have gutted the Dodgers’ rotation depth, so Dave Roberts may have to push Yamamoto deeper than ideal. On Arizona’s side, Zerillo expects only 3–4 effective innings from Ryne Nelson before Torey Lovullo pieces together a bullpen game, but the plus-money cushion offsets that risk. He will not play the Snakes below +200 and still prefers the total, yet believes the number offers sufficient value if the market drifts that high.

Sean Zerillo advised abandoning any remaining Orioles futures, calling their 15-31 start “virtually no path back.” Baltimore is already 14 games under .500 and sits in a division where only the Yankees are above break-even, yet four AL Central clubs are over .500. Zerillo pointed to the Orioles’ paper-thin rotation, refusal to invest in multi-year pitching, and an offense that ranks near the bottom of every major category. With Brandon Hyde out and structural roster issues persisting, Zerillo believes any playoff or win-total tickets should be treated as dead money and sees value only in looking toward 2026 markets.

Sean Zerillo reiterated his interest in the Blue Jays moneyline but sharpened the angle: play the full game at even money or better rather than chasing a live price or the first-five inning line. Zerillo makes the full-game number Toronto –110 while his first-five projection is a true pick’em, so the larger theoretical edge sits after the bullpens get involved. He concedes Dylan Cease has rediscovered ace form (19 strikeouts over his last two starts after a nine-run outlier) but believes San Diego’s A-relievers create a bigger gap versus Toronto’s pen than Cease does versus a resurgent Chris Bassitt. Bassitt’s profile supports the bet: walk rate chopped in half to 4.5 %, strikeout rate up to a career-best 25 %, outside-swing rate up to 33 % (career 25 %), swinging-strike rate up to 11 %, and his Location+ has climbed back to 105, correlating with a 3.2 expected ERA. With Bassitt pitching at a career peak and the Jays still catching plus prices, Zerillo is comfortable firing pre-game and would not delay for an in-game number that likely appears only once San Diego’s elite bullpen has the leverage.

Collin Whitchurch tacked on a second way to attack Nick Martinez, betting UNDER 17.5 outs recorded at +120 (Bet365) and would still play it at any plus-money price. Whitchurch called Martinez a “ticking time bomb,” citing a DRA that sits 1.4 runs higher than his surface ERA (4.76 vs 3.33), a swinging-strike rate that has fallen below 10 %, and a career-worst first-pitch-strike rate. He expects David Bell to pull Martinez early once traffic inevitably mounts, giving the Reds only 5–5⅔ innings at most. The prop cashes if Martinez fails to complete six full frames, a scenario Whitchurch believes is more likely than the implied 45 % probability.

Sean Zerillo played the full-game under 9 because he believes Corbin’s new pitch mix plus two standout defenses can keep scoring in check. Since ditching his four-seamer 15 starts ago, Corbin owns a 3.98 ERA, 4.26 FIP, and 3.94 xFIP with a 13.7% K-BB%—all far better than his replacement-level numbers from 2021-23. Pitching+ rates him at 102 this season, the first time he has graded above 100. Texas ranks 1st in Defensive Runs Saved and 4th in Outs Above Average; New York sits 9th and 15th, with DRS crediting catcher and pitcher contributions that OAA misses. Zerillo concedes the risk of fly-balls leaving the yard but argues that Corbin’s cutter-heavy attack plus the Yankees’ solid run prevention behind rookie Will Warren make a 9-run total too high. He projects 7.7 runs and would bet the under to 8.5 (–110).

Collin Whitchurch laid out why he is backing the Yankees first-five-innings moneyline at anything better than –190. He noted that Patrick Corbin’s reinvention has masked several red flags that should be exposed in the Bronx. Corbin’s ground-ball rate has cratered to 37.5% (down roughly ten points from late-career Washington levels) while his hard-hit suppression looks fluky—just a 31.6% hard-hit rate and only eight barrels in 114 batted-ball events despite a career norm near 40%. Baseball Prospectus’ DRA sits 1.4 runs higher than his ERA, underscoring looming regression. That is a dangerous profile in Yankee Stadium, especially against a lineup that owns the league’s best wRC+ versus left-handed pitching. Whitchurch expects the Yankees’ right-handed power to punish Corbin’s rising fly-ball mix and is comfortable paying up to –190 on the F5 line to capture that edge before bullpens enter.

Chris Raybon doubled-down on his earlier rookie-QB stance, saying the Giants’ public commitment to Russell Wilson is mostly image control orchestrated by Wilson’s camp. He expects the organization to pivot to Jackson Dart quickly—if not in Week 1 then shortly thereafter—because Brian Daboll and Joe Schoen are unlikely to waste snaps on Jameis Winston once inevitable early losses pile up. Raybon pointed to four brutal openers (at Washington, at Dallas, vs Kansas City, vs the Chargers) that could leave New York 0-4 and make the PR cost of an early switch negligible. He reminded listeners of Pittsburgh’s 2023 ‘mysterious Wilson injury’ that handed Justin Fields six starts as precedent for how a behind-the-scenes agreement can keep veteran optics clean while the staff moves to the youngster. For fantasy and Best Ball drafters he recommends grabbing Dart in the last rounds before camp buzz spikes his price, and for bettors he suggests fading the Giants ATS in September on the assumption that a mid-game QB change is firmly in play.

Chris Raybon warned that Las Vegas draws one of the nastiest rest-disadvantage gauntlets he can remember to open a season and wants no part of Raider tickets in Weeks 1-4. He rattled off the specifics: Week 1 at New England, who enjoy three extra preparation days after a Friday kickoff in Brazil; Week 2 versus the Chargers on Monday night while L.A. comes off the same Brazil game and therefore has nine days’ rest; Week 3 at Washington, whose Thursday night outing gives them a mini-bye; and Week 4 against Chicago, a club that immediately heads into its own bye and historically empties the playbook before the week off. Raybon’s database shows teams facing back-to-back-to-back opponents on 8-plus days of rest cover only 41 % since 2000, and he projects the Raiders to be underdogs of at least a field goal in each contest. His recommendation is to fade Las Vegas ATS early, sprinkle an in-season UNDER on their live win total if they somehow steal Week 1, and revisit the Silver-and-Black once the schedule normalizes after October.

Evan Abrams said he is looking to ‘invest in a Jacksonville offensive improvement in every way the market will let me,’ from alt-team-total ladders to an OVER on the Jags’ season-win number. His case is that Trevor Lawrence has far more room to grow than a defense that has already under-achieved, and the schedule gives the offense a soft runway. Weeks 1-4 come against Carolina, Indianapolis, Chicago and Tennessee – none finished higher than 21st in defensive EPA last year – which Abrams believes can inflate early counting stats and push public money toward Jacksonville by October. He drew a parallel to Tampa Bay’s 2023 jump from 21.3 to 29.6 points per game under a similar coordinator change, noting that the Bucs nearly grabbed the NFC’s No. 3 seed on offense alone. In a division he called ‘just as shaky as the old NFC South,’ Abrams projects a 2-win bump if Lawrence simply reaches league-average red-zone efficiency. He is already building positions in season-long scoring props and will add weekly overs until bookmakers price Jacksonville like a top-10 attack.

Evan Abrams reminded bettors that divisional home underdogs in Week 1 have been a long-term winner and singled out Cleveland as the most likely candidate this year. The Browns are catching 5.5 points now, and Abrams said he will grab them if the line drifts to +6 or +6.5. His rationale: uncertainty at both quarterback spots (Cleveland still hasn’t announced a starter, while Cincinnati’s Joe Burrow is coming off wrist surgery), Trey Hendrickson’s status on the Bengals’ side is up in the air, and early-season variance often favors the home dog. Because May numbers can swing a full field goal before September, Abrams is content to wait, but he wants listeners ready to pounce once the market hits the key number.

Chris Raybon called Cleveland’s slate "Super-Bowl-level difficult" and suggested betting the Browns UNDER their posted win total. Before their Week 10 bye, Cleveland faces Tennessee, Baltimore, Green Bay, Detroit, Minnesota, Pittsburgh, Miami and New England—seven teams that finished 2023 in the top half of DVOA. Things do not ease up: out of the bye they travel to the Jets and Raiders and host Baltimore and San Francisco. Raybon questioned where the easy victories are outside of the Browns’ customary upset of Cincinnati in Week 1. Because 13 of 17 games kick at 1 p.m. ET, the schedule offers little chance to exploit rest-edge or time-slot variance, further lowering their ceiling in his projections.

Evan Abrams highlighted how the Cowboys’ post-bye schedule sets up as a betting landmine. Dallas goes Raiders-Eagles-Chiefs-Lions-Vikings-Chargers-Commanders in consecutive weeks, a run he called "a brutal, brutal gauntlet." The team also plays a record four Thursday Night Football games, creating condensed-rest spots that have historically produced a 47 % cover rate for the favorite. Abrams believes the cumulative effect of short weeks and elite opponents gives value to betting Dallas UNDER on in-season win totals and looking to fade them ATS from Weeks 11-17, particularly in the three-game stretch that includes Kansas City and Detroit—both top-five offenses by EPA per play in 2023.

Chris Raybon advised bettors to be cautious with full-season Charger futures and to look for spots to fade Los Angeles after mid-season. The Chargers will log the most air miles in the league, including cross-country swings to Miami, Tennessee and Jacksonville. Raybon emphasized that the roster skews toward big-bodied players—Mike Williams, Ladd McConkey, Gus Edwards, even the use of a fullback—and that type of build has historically struggled to stay healthy when paired with heavy travel. Los Angeles finished 30th in Football Outsiders’ Adjusted Games Lost last year, and Raybon believes a similar attrition pattern could surface once the mileage adds up, making UNDER win-total bets and second-half fades attractive.