Chris Raybon advised taking the under on De'Von Achane's 7.5 rushing-touchdown season-long prop. Raybon pointed to multiple red flags: 1) Raheem Mostert may be past his prime but is still trusted at the goal line, siphoning short-yardage work. 2) Achane is dealing with a preseason calf issue that could linger or flare up again, shrinking his volume ceiling. 3) Miami’s offensive line just lost its best blocker, Terron Armstead, which Raybon believes will hurt run-game efficiency inside the red zone. 4) He expects the Dolphins to face more negative game scripts than the market projects, tilting their offense toward the pass. Because Achane’s explosive plays are more likely to come through the air, Raybon thinks seven or eight ground scores is an optimistic projection and prefers the under.

Nick Giffen likes the 10-to-1 price on Sam Darnold to lead the league in interceptions. He expects Seattle to trail more than last year’s Minnesota squad, forcing Darnold to throw despite Clint Kubiak’s run-centric philosophy. Kubiak’s Saints actually passed at a higher rate and played faster when behind than Minnesota did, so volume should remain high. Darnold tied for the NFL lead with 24 turnover-worthy plays in 2024 yet threw only 12 interceptions—four fewer than Baker Mayfield and Kirk Cousins—so regression is coming. He also swaps Minnesota’s 16th-ranked pass-blocking unit for Seattle’s 25th, adding pressure-induced mistakes to the mix. If he starts all 17 games, Giffen projects mid-teens picks and calls 10-1 “a gift.”

Chris Raybon recommended betting Baker Mayfield under 30.5 passing touchdowns at FanDuel (-158) and would still play 29.5 or 28.5 if the juice flips. Mayfield has gone under 29 touchdowns in every season of his career except 2024, when Liam Coen’s red-zone play-calling helped him to 28. Coen is now in Jacksonville, Chris Godwin is entering camp less than 100 percent, Mike Evans is past age 30, and rookie standout McMillan is expected to miss roughly half the season. Quarterbacks average about one missed game and Mayfield is no lock to play 17 again. Raybon projects a mid-20s touchdown total and calls Mayfield “fantasy no-man’s land” as a QB7, making the under a multi-unit play.

Chris Raybon said to smash the under on Javonte Williams’ 525.5-yard rushing prop. Raybon noted that ever since Williams’ 2022 ACL tear he has been a shell of his former self, rattling off 2024 game logs such as 8-for-23, 11-for-17, 5-for-12, and a four-game stretch that totaled 14 carries for a single yard. Williams produced three separate games with one or fewer rushing yards and finished the season with lines like 6-15 and 4-24. Raybon called it a "basement-level floor" and reminded listeners the Cowboys have already cycled through veterans like Dalvin Cook and Ezekiel Elliott, a signal the staff is willing to turn the backfield over quickly if Williams sputters again. Add a likely timeshare and there is, in Raybon’s words, “no realistic path” to 500 yards, let alone 525.5.

Sean Koerner bet Javonte Williams under 500.5 rushing yards (Caesars posts 525.5) for 2025. Williams is penciled in as Dallas’ Week 1 starter only because the book offers a line for every nominal RB1; Koerner doubts he holds the job. Miles Sanders and fifth-round rookie Jaden Blue are waiting in the wings, and Koerner believes Blue could pull even on early downs as soon as September. Williams was brutally inefficient in Denver—he logged several 10-plus-carry games under 20 yards and posted three contests with one or fewer rushing yards on 14 carries—despite running behind a top-10 offensive line. The Cowboys’ line is a downgrade, and the club could skew pass-heavy if Micah Parsons’ contract stalemate weakens the defense and forces shootouts. Koerner actually sees Williams’ best path to snaps coming on passing downs, not grinding carries. With a post-ACL track record that suggests replacement-level play and real risk he slides into a committee, Koerner thinks anything above 500 yards is too generous.

Chris Raybon recommended Breece Hall under 5.5 rushing touchdowns at ‑150 on DraftKings. Hall has never topped five rush TDs despite playing 16 and 17 games the past two seasons, and Raybon expects his volume to be squeezed from several angles. Rookie bruiser Braylon Allen profiles as a short-yardage hammer who could siphon goal-line carries, while new quarterback Justin Fields is a proven red-zone runner who scored 14 rushing TDs the last three years. OC Tanner Engstrand showed a willingness to committee backs in Detroit, fueling concern Hall’s share of inside-the-five carries dips even if New York leans run-heavy overall. Raybon projects Hall to miss two or three games—more in line with his career usage—which would require an unrealistic spike in TD rate to clear this prop. Put it all together and the path to six rushing scores looks narrow.

Sean Koerner said to bet Cooper Kupp under 700.5 receiving yards at ‑114 on FanDuel. He argued the 32-year-old wideout is falling off fast: Reception Perception charts Kupp in the bottom fifth-percentile versus both man and press coverage, and the Rams were comfortable cutting bait this spring. Seattle is a terrible landing spot for volume—new OC Ryan Grubb kept four tight ends and two fullbacks, signaling heavy 12/22 personnel and a run-first identity built around Kenneth Walker and Zach Charbonnet behind what Koerner believes could be an elite defense. With only two wideouts on most snaps, rookie Tori Horton is already pushing for playing time, so Koerner doubts Kupp will even stay above a 70 % route rate late in the year. Add the age cliff, slot-only usage, and projected low pass rate, and Koerner sees far more downside than upside on a number that still expects the old Kupp to show up.

Koerner flagged Michael Wilson as a preseason faller. Zay Jones has reportedly leap-frogged Wilson on the outside while Greg Dortch owns the slot, forcing Koerner to cut Wilson’s route share in his Week 1 projections. Wilson now profiles as a fringe option only in very deep leagues or DFS punt pools.

Chris Raybon called Ollie Gordon the new Miami back to stash behind Devon Achane. Gordon has, in Raybon’s words, "looked much, much better" than Jaylen Wright on preseason reps, is healthy, and has handled passing-game work Wright never earned. Given Achane’s light frame and the Dolphins’ explosive offense, Raybon views Gordon as a high-ceiling bench piece in the double-digit rounds.

Raybon labeled Mayfield the ‘frozen-pond tier’ QB of 2025 drafts after a brutal August. Chris Godwin’s soft-tissue injury, rookie WR Jalen McMillan’s setback, and OC Liam Cohen’s departure strip away both weapons and scheme stability. Because Mayfield lacks elite passing efficiency and offers no rushing floor, Raybon is fading him in all formats, preferring the running quarterbacks drafted later.

Wilson hasn’t played poorly, but Koerner thinks the writing is on the wall after rookie Jackson Dart lit up preseason defenses. Koerner now projects Wilson to lose the starting job ‘sooner rather than later,’ slashing his already thin fantasy appeal. With no rushing upside left in Wilson’s game and a potentially short leash, Koerner advised fantasy managers to avoid Wilson entirely and instead speculate on Dart in super-flex formats.

Koerner dropped Anthony Richardson well down his ranks after the Colts named Daniel Jones the Week-1 starter. Richardson already entered the league with limited college reps and then missed valuable practice time due to injuries. The coaching staff compounded the issue by sitting him in preseason Week-3, signaling they view him as a long-term project rather than an immediate contributor. Koerner compared the situation to Trey Lance and warned redraft managers that Richardson now profiles as a hold-and-hope stash rather than a plug-and-play upside QB.

Koerner had been stashing Guerendo as Christian McCaffrey’s direct backup, but the 49ers’ acquisition of Brian Robinson Jr. pushes Guerendo to third on the depth chart. Given Kyle Shanahan’s history of giving the next man up a full workload, Koerner now views Robinson—not Guerendo—as the back to roster behind McCaffrey. Guerendo is a cut candidate in leagues without deep benches.

Koerner highlighted Matthew Golden as a screaming value who is quietly becoming Green Bay’s primary target. With Christian Watson, Jayden Reed and Dontayvion Wicks all nursing injuries, Golden has run with the first-team offense in every two-WR set throughout camp and hauled in a 39-yard deep ball in the third preseason game. FantasyPros ADP has already climbed from WR46 to WR41, yet Koerner expects another leap because rookie first-round receivers drafted outside the top-30 have beaten ADP 66 % of the time the past seven seasons. He projects Golden to open the year as Jordan Love’s most-targeted pass catcher and recommends grabbing him any time he lasts past the 9th round.

Chris Raybon urged drafters to scoop up Marvin Mims before the market catches up. Mims was the PPR WR26 (WR28 in half-point) over last season’s final eight games despite running a route on only 39 % of dropbacks. This August he played more than 90 % of routes with the starting unit, confirming Payton now views him as an every-down option opposite Sutton. If that snap share holds Mims could triple last year’s playing time, giving him weekly boom potential even in an offense that may be volatile. Because he is still being selected outside the top-50 receivers, Raybon called him one of the best upside darts in the double-digit rounds for both season-long and best-ball formats.

Chris Raybon put the over/under at five games before Jaxson Dart supplants Russell Wilson. Raybon argued New York’s early-season slate is brutal, and once defenses roll coverage to the Giants’ No. 1 wideout they will need a passer who can threaten every level of the field while adding a rushing element. Wilson’s current style—deep bombs or check-downs—won’t cut it, whereas Dart’s legs and willingness to attack the middle open up the entire playbook. Raybon told listeners to stash Dart now in redraft and super-flex formats and be ready to deploy him in DFS showdowns the moment he’s named the starter.

Raybon advised allocating futures bankroll to Jacksonville at +300 instead of tying it up fading Tampa Bay. He reasoned that bettors get a much bigger payoff for what is essentially the same bet on "Cone"—his shorthand for the quarterback/offensive upside—being good, while the Buccaneers market sits near even money. In his view the Jaguars number bakes in their downside and still leaves plenty of ceiling if the offense clicks, making it the better value play.

Stuckey explained that instead of forcing a Tampa Bay win-total under at a number he thinks is efficient, he is backing Atlanta to win the NFC South at any price better than +200. He called the Falcons "still the best division pick," noting that the Buccaneers are trading at nearly even money while Atlanta provides more than double the payoff and captures the same anti-Bucs thesis without laying a big price.

Stuckey is sprinkling a “couch-change lottery ticket” on the Giants at 20-1 or longer to win the NFC East. He wants inexpensive exposure in case the heavily favored Eagles stumble, recommending bettors first decide between Dallas or Washington for a realistic hedge, then add New York last so the long odds still feel palatable. The play is framed strictly as an upside shot rather than a conviction pick, but the payout justifies a small stake.

Chris Raybon pushed back on Stuckey’s fade and said Washington is still an attractive plus-220ish NFC East bet even if the Giants are the bigger long-shot. He emphasized that WR Deebo Samuel’s conditioning looked much better in camp after a lost 2024 (pneumonia, weight issues), and that the attack never asked him to win with pure route running—speed and motion fit the scheme. The bet hinges on McLaurin returning healthy, Lattimore showing he isn’t washed, and Jayden Daniels maintaining last year’s accuracy, but Raybon believes the offensive ceiling is higher than the market implies. With Philadelphia staring at injury regression and Dallas shuffling coaches, he likes owning both a long Giants ticket and a smaller Commanders position to capture a division he sees as far more open than prices suggest.

Stuckey took under 9.5 wins on Washington, projecting an 8-8 finish and labeling 2024 a textbook regression setup. The Commanders played a comically soft quarterback slate, stayed almost completely healthy, went 8-4 in one-score games, and posted historically elite red-zone and fourth-down efficiency—metrics that crash back to earth more often than not. He still distrusts a defense that added little top-end talent and pointed out that center James Daniels is already dinged. Stuckey conceded QB Jayden Daniels answered most rookie questions but argued that for Washington to beat him, they need three fragile variables—Terry McLaurin’s ankle, Deebo Samuel proving he isn’t washed, and Marshon Lattimore holding up—to all hit. With a schedule spike and the league on notice for fourth-down aggression, he’s comfortable fading last year’s feel-good story.

Stuckey bet Philadelphia under 11 wins and projected them 10-7 despite still ranking the roster top-five on paper. He highlighted major defensive attrition—edge Josh Sweat, corner Darius Slay, nose Jordan Williams, and safety C.J. Gardner-Johnson are all gone—while Year-2 in Vic Fangio’s scheme will lean on unproven depth. Offensively the Eagles enjoyed freakish 2024 health; he is already seeing cracks with A.J. Brown, Dallas Goedert and DeVonta Smith nursing injuries and fourth wideout Cedric Wilson lost for the season. Saquon Barkley’s 472 touches and 11 long-range TDs are statistical outliers unlikely to repeat, and any injury on the thin offensive line forces raw guard Kenyon Green into the lineup. Combine that with a night-and-day tougher road slate (at Green Bay, Dallas, Buffalo, Kansas City, and both improved Giants games) and Stuckey believes Philadelphia is priced like last year’s perfect-storm juggernaut rather than a team begging for regression in close-game and injury variance.

Stuckey said he has already sprinkled the Giants at 25-1 to win the NFC East because they finally have a roster that can mask the offensive line and quarterback questions. He rattled off the defensive upgrades—rookie safety Tyler Nubin, veteran safety Jevon Holland, corner Isaiah “A-Debo” Oliver, nickel Terell Phillips, plus a deeper edge rotation—that should let their exotic pressure packages hit home. Offensively he expects a healthy Andrew Thomas to lift a line that collapsed last year and called rookie Malik Nabers the first true difference-making weapon the room has had. Even if Russell Wilson starts and Drake Maye (whom he called “Dart”) takes over later, it will still be markedly better than the 2024 carousel of DeVito, Lock and a hurt Daniel Jones. Stuckey also cited massive positive regression signals: the Giants went 1-8 in one-score games and lost Thomas for most of the year. Because the 2025 schedule is brutal, he prefers the high-ceiling division ticket to a standard win-total over.

Stuckey said he is quietly buying the Giants as a surprise playoff contender. Pre-season standout Dart should push Russell Wilson for snaps early, giving the offense a vertical element it lacked. Defensively, New York pairs an already strong pass rush with secondary upgrades in Cooper DeJean, Tyler Nubin, and Trey Holland alongside Adoree Jackson and Deonte Banks. A healthy Andrew Thomas stabilizes a still shaky but improved offensive line, and rookie Malik Nabers provides a legitimate WR1. That blend of pass-rush pressure, better coverage, and an eventual quarterback upgrade convinces Stuckey the Giants can replicate their 11-win 2022 ceiling at an undervalued price in win-total and playoff-yes markets.

Chris Raybon called Washington the best value play to win the NFC East. The division hasn’t had a repeat champion in 21 years, and Raybon thinks rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels provides a higher floor and ceiling than last season’s production, noting Daniels played hurt mid-year yet still flashed top-five EPA per play early in 2024. Assuming Terry McLaurin stays despite contract noise and with Kliff Kingsbury scheming, he expects a second-year leap for the offense. Meanwhile, Philadelphia inherits a tougher first-place schedule and lost multiple defensive starters. Given those dynamics, Raybon prefers a Commanders division future over chalk on Dallas or Philly.

Stuckey leaned over 4.5 wins on New Orleans, noting the total bakes in every worst-case scenario. He projects them for 5.0 victories even after accounting for uncertainty at quarterback (Tyler Shough vs. Spencer Rattler) and an aging defense transitioning to Brandon Staley’s scheme. New play-caller Kellen Moore inherits a healthy Alvin Kamara, Chris Olave, Rashid Shaheed, and Juwan Johnson, while a re-shuffled line featuring Banks at LT, Trevor Penning inside, and rookie Taliese Fuaga at RT could be a net upgrade. With offensive variance skewed toward improvement and no clear power in the division, Stuckey sees limited downside and plenty of upside at 4.5.

Stuckey said bettors should start the season by playing Panthers game totals to the over. Carolina’s defense was gashed for 180 rushing yards per game last year— the worst figure in the league since 1987— and the front office mostly added size rather than real play-makers. The unit remains thin, injury-prone, and he expects further special-teams regression. With Bryce Young and a competent run game capable of keeping the offense near league average, Stuckey projects frequent shoot-outs until bookmakers fully adjust, making full-game overs his preferred angle on Carolina.

Stuckey leaned toward betting the Falcons at +230 to +250 to win the NFC South, arguing the price is far better than Tampa’s –115 despite minimal difference between the teams. His power ratings make Atlanta favorites in eight games and underdogs by more than a field goal only three times (at San Francisco, home vs Buffalo off a bye, and at Minnesota in Week 2). The schedule ranks inside his three easiest in the league and opens with a home date against a Buccaneers roster dealing with multiple key injuries. Off-season moves aimed at fixing last year’s pass-rush woes—signing Leonard Floyd and drafting Pierce and Walker—should complement a secondary he calls "good enough." Offensively the unit "runs it back" with Michael Penix Jr. after the quarterback flashed versus poor defenses, while Bijan Robinson, Drake London, Kyle Pitts and Darnell Mooney give legitimate skill talent. Stuckey concedes the Kaleb McGary right-tackle injury and thin depth at receiver could bite, but maintains his numbers plus the soft schedule make Atlanta the clear value play to win the division.

Stuckey said he wants to fade Tampa Bay in every NFC South futures market because last season’s 10-win finish was propped up by what he called “an absurd quarterback schedule” (Rattler, O’Connell, Cooper Rush, Desmond Ritter, Tommy DeVito, plus an Eagles offense missing its receivers). The Bucs were still only 3-5 in one-score games and were out-gained by Detroit "by like a billion" in a game they somehow won. For 2025 he flags several red lights: offensive coordinator Liam Cohen is gone, Chris Godwin and Jalen McMillan are both sidelined, and All-Pro tackle Tristan Wirfs will miss the early part of the year. The front office did little to bolster a shaky secondary. Stuckey’s projections come out to 9.2 wins versus the posted 9.5 and he refuses to lay the roughly even-money price the market is hanging on Tampa to win the division, preferring to “sell the Bucs” instead.

Chris Raybon advised fading Minnesota’s win total and taking positions against them in divisional markets. He expects sharp regression from last year’s 9-1 record in one-score games and 33 takeaways, calling both numbers unsustainable. Raybon outlined fresh concerns: Jordan Addison is suspended for the first three games; left tackle Christian Darrisaw and linemates Fariz and Kelly are battling injuries while a rookie guard is slated to start, making the offensive line volatile. He added that Justin Jefferson has already been dinged, Aaron Jones is in decline, and T.J. Hockenson did not look like himself after injury. Defensively, the team must lean on inconsistent corners such as Jeff Okudah and rookie Rogers. With a noticeably tougher schedule, two weeks overseas and every rival coaching staff (Campbell, LaFleur, Ben Johnson) rated as equal or superior, Raybon doubts Kevin O’Connell can coax another above-.500 finish. He is betting the Vikings win-total under and expects them to miss the playoffs.

Stuckey said he has already bet Chicago’s win-total over 8.5 at plus money and sprinkled on them to make the playoffs. He pointed to what he calls "probably the most improved offensive line in the league," noting the additions of Tuney, Dalman and Jackson alongside tackles Jones and Wright. He expects new play-caller Ben Johnson to "do wonders" for an offense that now features Rome Odunze, Luther Burden and Colston Loveland with Cole Kmet and DJ Moore. Compared with Minnesota, Chicago carries fewer injury-question marks, avoids a rookie signal-caller learning curve and benefits from a coaching upgrade. Stuckey views the Bears as a competent, upward-trending organization and believes the current market underrates their median outcome, making the over and playoff tickets attractive.

Sean Koerner argued that fantasy players are sleeping on Tyler Higbee. He pointed out that Sean McVay was openly disappointed with the depth behind Higbee in 2024, prompting the Rams to draft Terrance Ferguson mainly as an indictment of backups Colby Parkinson and Davis Allen, not of Higbee himself. Koerner reminded listeners that Higbee flashed clear top-five upside late last season and said if the veteran shows a 75 percent routes-run rate in Week 1 he would immediately push into the weekly top-12, if not top-10, at the position. Because Higbee is largely undrafted, Koerner recommends scooping him off waivers or slotting him into low-cost DFS lineups early, then holding if the usage sticks.

Chris Raybon said Zach Ertz is being drafted far too late around TE19-20 and makes the perfect low-risk placeholder. Raybon noted that with Terry McLaurin’s status still unclear, Washington could lean on Ertz exactly the way they did last season when he quietly led the club in targets over several stretches. Because Ertz costs virtually no draft capital, managers can simply cut him if his age or health catches up, but Raybon expects a spike in Week 1 usage and sees a realistic path to replicating last year’s mid-TE1 production. He recommended waiting on tight end, selecting Ertz at the very end of drafts, starting him opening week, and then deciding whether to ride the volume or churn the roster.

Chris Raybon believes Zach Ertz is being dismissed too quickly. With Terry McLaurin’s status murky, Ertz could reprise last season’s role as Sam Howell’s preferred underneath option. Raybon recalled multiple weeks where Ertz led the Commanders in catches and emphasized that missed games don’t hurt as much in redraft formats—you simply replace him. For a player available in the late rounds who has already flashed double-digit-target upside, Ertz is an easy depth pick.

Chris Raybon pegged Brenton Strange as a classic late-round tight end who might simply win on route volume. He expects Strange to be Jacksonville’s starting TE and finish near the league leaders in routes run, similar to what Cade Otton delivered under Liam Cohn. That workload alone makes Strange draftable in all redraft formats, with room for more if Doug Pederson schemes him red-zone usage.

Chris Raybon reminded drafters that Dallas Goedert has ranked top-12 in points per game three straight seasons despite playing in a low-volume offense loaded with target competition. Goedert’s target-per-route rate sits north of 20 %, and he regularly logs 85-90 % of passing snaps, including postseason usage. The Eagles re-worked his contract this offseason, signaling full commitment. Raybon thinks the muddled ‘frozen pond’ tier after the big three TEs opens the door for Goedert to finish as the overall TE6, yet he often lasts beyond TE15 in drafts.

Sean Koerner suggested drafting Jonnu Smith as a Week-1 placeholder if you miss every other tight end. Smith finished as the TE5 last season on a Miami squad featuring Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, and Devon Achane—proof he can earn volume against stiff competition. Now in Pittsburgh with Aaron Rodgers, Koerner sees only DK Metcalf as clear target competition. Given Metcalf’s efficiency-over-volume style, there’s a non-zero chance Smith actually leads the Steelers in looks. Worst-case, you will know within a week whether he’s sharing snaps with Pat Freiermuth and can pivot quickly.

In the same late-round strategy bucket, Sean Koerner circled rookie Tyler Warren as a near-identical upside bet to Colson Loveland. Warren is also being drafted in the TE10-12 window; Koerner pointed out that rookie tight ends have become immediate fantasy difference-makers and sees Warren’s athleticism and projected route volume giving him a legitimate shot at a top-five finish as soon as 2025.

Chris Raybon said Matthew Golden is set up to become the Packers’ every-down No. 1 wideout immediately. Christian Watson is already ruled out for the start of the season and every other receiver on the roster—Jaden Reed, Romeo Doubs, and Dontayvion Wicks—has missed time with injuries. Raybon noted Doubs topped out around an 80 % route rate last year, whereas Golden “has a chance to be a 90 %-plus type of player.” Jordan Love quietly finished top-six in several efficiency metrics despite the early-season picks, and Raybon thinks Golden’s vertical skillset meshes perfectly with Love’s deep-ball accuracy. He’s drafting Golden outside the WR30 range but believes a healthy season could yield top-20, even top-15 fantasy numbers.

Raybon continued to pound the table for Matthew Golden, arguing the rookie could open 2025 as Green Bay’s top option by default. Christian Watson is already ruled out for Week 1, while Jayden Reed, Romeo Doubs, and Dontayvion Wicks have each missed chunks of camp with various injuries. Golden, meanwhile, has taken every first-team rep available and was already praised by coaches as a plug-and-play Z receiver. Raybon said the path to an immediate target lead "was great back in May and is even clearer now," making Golden a late-round smash in redraft and best-ball formats alike.

Chris Raybon is pouncing on Zay Flowers wherever he slides out of the top-30 wide-receiver tier. Flowers logged a 90-plus-percent route rate as a sophomore and remains Lamar Jackson’s No. 1 target after the Ravens shifted Mark Andrews into more of a situational role. Raybon brushed off Baltimore’s public statements about "not needing" Flowers to rack up yardage, pointing instead to two straight productive seasons in run-heavy systems. He added that an aging Derrick Henry raises the odds Baltimore leans even further into Jackson’s arm if Henry misses any time. With no role change and elite usage metrics still intact, Raybon views current ADP slippage as noise and called Flowers a priority value pick.

Koerner said the injury pile-up in San Francisco turns Ricky Pearsall into a screaming value outside the top-30 receivers. Deebo Samuel is gone, Brandon Aiyuk is expected to miss at least the first six games, and Jauan Jennings is battling both an injury and a contract standoff. That leaves the 2024 first-rounder as the presumptive Week-1 target leader. Pearsall’s rookie campaign was derailed when he wasn’t cleared to practice until mid-season, but Koerner noted the 49ers still spent Round-1 capital on him for a reason and are now "rolling into Week 1 expecting Pearsall to be the guy." He recommended drafting Pearsall wherever available as a cheap bet on immediate volume in Kyle Shanahan’s receiver-friendly scheme.

Sean Koerner said Calvin Ridley is still sitting in the wide-receiver-30 range on most draft boards, a price he called flat-out wrong after moving Ridley up to WR23 in his own ranks. Koerner’s optimism hangs on new quarterback Cam Ward, who produced three catches for 50 yards to Ridley on just seven preseason snaps. Ward is +750 to lead the league in interceptions, and Koerner framed that as a feature, not a bug—calling Ward a "big-play hunter" who will force targets to Ridley, then get the ball back quickly after every pick-six. With Will Levis out of the way and no true target competition in Tennessee, Koerner expects a spike in catchable deep balls and labeled Ridley a high-ceiling WR3 who could easily post WR2 numbers if Ward’s YOLO tendencies hold. He advised scooping Ridley wherever he slips past the top-30 receivers.

Chris Raybon thinks Tyrone Tracy is a screaming value around RB30 while fantasy drafters chase rookie Scattaboo and overreact to Devin Singletary’s preseason goal-line carry. Tracy logged five straight touches with the starters in the first exhibition game and has looked like the most explosive back on the roster. With Daniel Jones and the rest of the Giants offense expected to take a step forward, Raybon believes Tracy can seize a majority share of early-down and receiving work, making him a cheap path to top-20 RB production.

Chris Raybon flagged D'Andre Swift as an unsexy but profitable pick after RB40. The Bears lost Roschon Johnson and multiple depth backs to camp injuries, leaving Swift as the only healthy runner with proven three-down chops. Chicago’s offensive line overhaul under Ben Johnson should boost run efficiency, and a new coaching staff has no reason to pigeonhole Swift as a mere passing-down specialist. Raybon expects a heavy early-season workload that could vault him into weekly RB2 territory before the market catches up.

Sean Koerner said J.K. Dobbins is being slept on in the RB30-35 draft range. Payton wants a classic "Thunder & Lightning" backfield and has already called R.J. Harvey his Alvin Kamara type, leaving Dobbins to soak up the Mark Ingram early-down and goal-line work. Denver completely rebuilt the top of its RB depth chart after ranking 29th in rush EPA last year despite a top-10 offensive line. Koerner noted the preseason helmet mishap—Dobbins was supposed to take the first snap over Harvey—as evidence the staff already sees him as the nominal starter. A healthy Dobbins carries a weekly RB3 floor with true RB2 upside if Harvey misses time, and the cost is still outside the top 30 backs in most season-long drafts.

Sean Koerner flagged Jordan Mason as a screaming value outside the top-30 backs because Minnesota is opening the season in a near 50-50 committee with Aaron Jones and already giving Mason goal-line reps. The former 49er faced eight-man boxes on 33 % of carries last year—highest in the league—yet still ranked third in yards per carry when defenses were honest, evidence he can thrive once Vikings play-action removes stacked fronts. Koerner reminded listeners that Jones landed in Kevin O’Connell’s doghouse twice for fumbles, so Mason could flat-out win the starting job. Even without an injury he profiles as an RB3/FLEX; if Jones misses time Koerner’s upside chart pushes Mason into the RB2 tier.

Chris Raybon called Trevor Lawrence the best sleeper on the board, pointing out that he’s still going around QB19-20—or undrafted—despite a plausible Baker Mayfield-style rebound under new coordinator Liam Cohn. Cohn’s lone NFL stint saw Tampa jump from average to elite in red-zone efficiency and dramatically boost yards-after-catch, the two areas Lawrence has struggled most. Jacksonville already rostered Brian Thomas Jr. and added Travis Hunter, giving the former first overall pick his deepest pass-catching corps yet. Raybon expects frequent shootouts, likes Lawrence’s underestimated rushing ability, and believes fantasy managers will know within a few weeks if they’ve hit on a free QB1.

Sean Koerner highlighted Justin Herbert as a steal in the QB17 range, reminding listeners that the Chargers flipped from the league’s second-lowest to sixth-highest pass rate over expected once Greg Roman loosened the reins after Week 6 last season. Los Angeles fortified the receiver room—rookie deep threats Trey Harris and Keondria Lambert-Smith join returning target monster Keenan Allen—so Herbert no longer has to throw to “a bunch of dudes.” Even in a theoretically run-heavier system the former Oregon star logged 20-plus rushing yards in six of his final 11 games, giving him sneaky floor. Koerner views him as a safe Week 1 starter in 1-QB leagues and near-must in Superflex formats because the real-life talent is top-five while the fantasy market prices him outside the top dozen.

Sean Koerner said Caleb Williams is his favorite late-round quarterback target because the Bears finally fixed every issue that capsized the former No. 1 pick’s first season. Williams still managed a QB15 fantasy finish despite losing both his head coach and offensive coordinator in-season and absorbing 68 sacks, only about 45 % of which were charted as his fault. Chicago invested heavily in the offensive line and replaced the entire offensive brain-trust with Ben Johnson, the architect of Detroit’s high-efficiency attack the last three years. Koerner noted Williams’ first preseason action—a 97-yard touchdown drive—quieted social-media camp concerns and reinforced his dual-threat ceiling. He projects Williams as QB9 yet ADP sits around QB15, giving drafters room for profit plus weekly rushing upside.

Koerner wrapped the draft by nabbing Jackson Hawes (TE78 ADP) because he’s "third on the depth chart for the Bills" and therefore the most likely dart to stumble into a score. If either Dalton Kincaid or Dawson Knox misses time, Hawes’ snap rate would spike in multi-tight-end red-zone packages. Koerner compared the potential role to Reggie Gilliam, hoping for "a vulture touchdown or two" that would mitigate the risk of finishing 15+ spots below ADP while offering cheap exposure to Buffalo’s high-octane offense.