Kyle Purviance said Bryce Harper is a premium hitting-prop play when he faces Eric Fedde, recommending both RBI and walk markets. Purviance highlighted Harper’s dominant track record in the matchup: 27 prior plate appearances have produced six home runs and five walks. He stressed that Fedde’s nibbling approach makes at least one free pass "almost guaranteed," while Harper’s power gives bettors multiple paths to cash RBI tickets. Purviance suggested splitting a unit between Harper to record an RBI (currently +115) and over 0.5 walks (-105) rather than chasing the longer-odds homer prop, noting that the combination leverages both Fedde’s control issues and Harper’s ability to drive himself in. The tout framed the play as useful for single-game parlays, straight prop betting, and DFS one-off exposure in cash lineups.

Brian Howard prefers the under 8.5 in A’s-Dodgers despite the public fascination with LA’s lineup. He cited Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s 2.38 ERA, 31 % strikeout rate and league-low 0.6 HR/9 along with Gunnar Hoglund’s surprisingly strong MLB debut month (3.12 ERA, 28 % K-rate, only one barrel allowed). Howard noted that both pitchers lean on splitters that generate sub-.180 xBA and that Dodger Stadium has played neutral-to-pitcher in night games this season (park-factor 94). Because neither bullpen has thrown more than 11 high-leverage pitches the past two days, he expects rested late-inning arms to close the door. He also mentioned that taking Oakland’s +220 moneyline becomes more attractive in a low-scoring environment but the total is his core play.

Kyle Purviance said the first number he grabbed for Wednesday’s Angels-Padres clash was the over 8.5 runs (-122 and likely to hit 9 by first pitch). He called both starters 'two bad pitchers'—Randy Vasquez owns a 5.92 ERA with a 15 % K-rate while Kyle Hendricks has already surrendered 10 homers in 34 innings with a 1.59 WHIP. Purviance added that each bullpen sits bottom-5 in xFIP, so ‘even if the starters survive, the relievers will pour gas on it.’ San Diego’s top-10 offense should supply most of the damage, but Purviance expects Los Angeles to tag Vasquez for at least four because the right-hander’s four-seam has been hit at a .404 xwOBA. He plans to sprinkle Jackson Merrill RBI props as a correlate and urged bettors to lock in 8.5 before the number disappears.

Kyle Purviance plans to lay the Cubs moneyline—even at the early ‑225 price—versus Miami and left-hander Ryan Weathers. Chicago leads MLB in wRC+ (142) and OPS (.889) against southpaws, while Weathers carries a 5.44 ERA, 1.6 HR/9 and ranks in the 10th percentile in hard-hit avoidance. Purviance likened Weathers to 'the Matt Harvey of 2025' and said the number should open closer to ‑275 once bettors notice the platoon mismatch. He is not worried about Jameson Taillon’s league-average profile because Miami’s offense sits 29th in slugging and dead-last in barrel rate. Any line shorter than ‑240 is a buy in his view.

Brian Howard called Tarik Skubal 'the best pitcher in baseball right now' and plans to hit both his strikeout over and the Tigers double-result (lead after 5 and win) against Boston. Skubal boasts a 1.68 ERA, 34 % K-rate and has allowed only two homers in seven starts. Boston’s lineup owns the sixth-highest strikeout rate versus lefties (26.4 %) and ranks 23rd in wRC+ in that split. Howard expects books to hang an 8.0 or 8.5 strikeout line at approximately ‑110; if that happens he will ladder to 9+ for plus money because Skubal has reached double-digit Ks in two of his last four outings while averaging 94 pitches. He paired the K prop with Detroit’s double result, noting the Tigers bullpen’s 2.91 ERA over the past two weeks and Boston’s bottom-10 pen in leverage index.

Kyle Purviance circled Hunter Dobbins’ strikeout prop, recommending 6+ Ks at +195 and 7+ at 4-to-1 against a Tigers lineup that strikes out 27 % of the time versus right-handers (24th in contact rate). Dobbins has cleared 5 strikeouts in three of four starts, including six against Kansas City—MLB’s second-toughest team to K. Purviance acknowledged pitch-count volatility (range 79-93 pitches) but trusts Dobbins’ 32 % whiff rate on his sweeper to exploit Detroit’s bottom-five chase discipline. He dismissed the low 7.0 game total, arguing that even a pitcher’s duel can feature punch-outs, and advised bettors to ladder rather than play the flat 5.5 at juiced odds.

Brian Howard recommended taking the Mariners on the first-five moneyline behind Luis Castillo at roughly –105. Howard noted that the Yankees’ lineup boasts power but also the fourth-highest strikeout rate in baseball, a perfect matchup for Castillo’s change-up/slider combo that has generated a 29 % whiff rate this season. He framed the start as a "last audition" for Castillo, who may want to impress a Yankees front office expected to pursue pitching at the deadline. Because Seattle’s bullpen has been league-average while New York’s ranks top-three in ERA, Howard suggested a creative hedge: Mariners first five, Yankees full-game result—a combo that pays around 9-to-1. The core play, however, is Mariners F5 at near even money.

Kyle Purviance said the best way to attack Phillies–Cardinals Game 2 is backing Sonny Gray in the first five innings at roughly +115. Purviance pointed out that Aaron Nola has looked shaky in three of his last four starts and Philadelphia’s bullpen ranks near the bottom of MLB in ERA, making a full-game Cardinals ticket riskier. By isolating the first five, bettors get Gray—who owns a 2.11 ERA and has allowed just one homer all season—head-to-head with Nola while avoiding St. Louis’s equally dicey late-inning relief. Purviance added that the price is too good to pass up given Gray’s league-leading 29 % strikeout rate and the Cardinals’ recent 7-2 record in his outings.

Kyle Purviance said he is locking in the Braves moneyline at –105 and laddering alternate run-lines because, in his words, “Schwellenbach is better than Sasaki right now.” Purviance is a self-proclaimed Schwellenbach believer and thinks the rookie’s fastball/slider combo has looked sharp every outing. By contrast, he called Roki Sasaki a “time bomb,” noting the Japanese ace has not transitioned smoothly to the MLB ball and could easily surrender a crooked number early — “he can also go give up six in the first.” Given that volatility, Purviance loves the Braves –1.5 at +175 and is even sprinkling –2.5 at +267, arguing the market should not make Atlanta a slight dog when the more reliable arm is on their side.

Kyle Purviance loves Cubs –1.5 at +150. Jameson Taillon’s 3.08 xFIP and 54 % ground-ball rate suggest his early-season rebound is real, whereas Jose Quintana, with only two decent starts, now faces a Chicago order that ranks third in OPS (.812) against southpaws. Purviance hammered Milwaukee’s offense—25.6 % K-rate and 28th in ISO vs righties—claiming they lack the punch to come back if Taillon gets an early cushion. Chicago’s bullpen is seventh in WPA, wind is forecast to blow out to left at Wrigley, and Kyle sees the +150 as badly mis-priced.

Purviance made Arizona his “dog of the day,” backing them at +105 and even sprinkling an alternate –1.5. Brandon Pfaadt owns a 24 % strikeout rate and 3.31 xFIP over his last four starts, numbers hidden by his 4.34 ERA. Aaron Nola, meanwhile, is 0-5 with a 5.40 ERA and a declining whiff rate. The Snakes strike out less than any team in baseball (18.2 % vs RHP) while Philadelphia is just 18th in OPS and bottom-five in homers against righties. Purviance piled on the Phillies’ bullpen—second-worst ERA in MLB at 5.11—arguing Arizona will grind Nola out early and feast on shaky relievers late.

Kyle Purviance called the Mets –1.5 at +110 a gift. He likes the Tylor McGill vs Eric Fetty matchup, noting McGill’s velocity bump to 95-96 mph and 27 % K-rate over his last three starts while Fetty owns just a 6.7 % swinging-strike rate and 43 % hard-hit rate. Purviance emphasized that New York leads MLB in OPS and wRC+ versus right-handed pitching, even with Juan Soto slumping, because the lineup stays lefty-heavy all the way to Brett Baty in the eight-spot. He loves teams whose 6-7-8-9 hitters reach base, arguing it keeps pressure on the Cards’ bullpen, which is stretched after consecutive extra-inning games. He projects six-plus Mets runs and sees a multi-run win as the most likely outcome.

Brian Howard ultimately locked in Seattle –1.5 behind Luis Castillo. He acknowledged Patrick Corbin’s new sinker/four-seam mix but pointed to Corbin’s 46 % hard-hit rate and 1.8 HR/9. Castillo owns a 2.86 ERA, a strikeout-to-walk ratio over 4, and just one barrel allowed in his last three turns. Howard’s only hesitation was Seattle’s boom-bust offense, but after being quiet Friday he doubts they strike out 40-plus again. With the Mariners’ top-three bullpen and Corbin’s blow-up profile, he likes the run-line more than the –135 moneyline.

Purviance is laying –1.5 with Cincinnati at +110. Washington’s pen had to cover five innings Thursday, and its 5.46 ERA already ranks last in the league. Nick Lodolo can still flash ace stuff—30 % K-rate in his good outings and nine punch-outs in Colorado his last time out—while Trevor Williams carries a 4.78 xERA and .270 ISO allowed to lefties, a bad mix with Elly De La Cruz and Jake Fraley waiting. Kyle expects Lodolo to go six solid, the Reds to break things open once Williams exits, and a multi-run cushion to follow.

Brian Howard agreed with the Mets run-line angle but suggested juicing the payout by building a Same Game Parlay. He likes adding Jeff McNeil or Pete Alonso hit/run/RBI props to the –1.5. McNeil is 7-for-16 (.438) with just one strikeout in 20 plate appearances off Eric Fetty, while Alonso is 6-for-16 with two doubles. Combining ‘McNeil 2+ H/R/RBI’ or ‘Alonso 1+ RBI’ with the Mets –1.5 pushes the price north of +300 and leans into the same handicap—New York’s dominance against mediocre right-handed pitching.

Kyle Purviance said he has stopped fading the White Sox whenever bookmakers list them as underdogs and now treats Chicago as an automatic bet in that role. Purviance acknowledged that every left-handed split and OPS number still paints the Sox as a bottom-three offense versus southpaws, yet they continue to cash plus-money tickets because their actual in-game results keep outpacing the underlying metrics. He pointed to Friday’s matchup where Chicago, despite ranking 28th in OPS against lefties and showing negative run values for nearly every hitter, lit up Framber Valdez and Houston early. Purviance argued the market is over-reacting to those ugly season-long stats while ignoring how streaky baseball is and how quickly regression can come for both hitters and pitchers. Until pricing adjusts, he plans to blindly back the Sox any time oddsmakers make them dogs.

Kyle Purviance targeted the Tigers in the first-five-innings market against the Angels and Jose Soriano. He noted that Detroit sends ace-level lefty Tarik Skubal to the mound while Los Angeles is still without Mike Trout, stripping the lineup of its only elite bat versus left-handed pitching. Soriano, meanwhile, has struggled to locate his fastball and brings a 10.4% walk rate with just a 20% whiff rate into the start, numbers Purviance believes will let the Tigers’ contact-heavy order generate early traffic. With Skubal working on a 32% strikeout rate and sub-3.00 xFIP over his last four outings, Purviance expects Detroit to carry a lead through five and sees value in the Tigers F5 moneyline rather than the full-game price that exposes bettors to Detroit’s shaky bullpen.

Brian Howard is firing on the White Sox first-five moneyline at roughly +145 because he trusts Shane Smith far more than Tobias Myers. Smith carries a sparkling 2.30 ERA and sub-1.00 WHIP, while Myers owns a 4.50 ERA and an ugly 2.00 WHIP. Howard cashed this exact pitching mismatch the last time it aired and sees no reason to deviate from the "good arm vs traffic machine" formula. Isolating the first five removes Chicago’s shaky bullpen from the equation, and Howard will also look at Smith’s strikeout over (projected 4.5) since the Brewers whiff nearly 25 % of the time against righties.

Howard is taking a shot on Washington at roughly +185 because he sees very little separating Jake Irvin and Cristopher Sanchez right now. Over their past five turns Irvin owns a 2.87 ERA and 1.08 WHIP, even blanking the Mets for six innings, while Sanchez has been tagged for 10 runs across his last 11 frames. Howard argued that Philadelphia’s left-handed–heavy lineup just faced southpaw MacKenzie Gore tonight and now flips to a righty they’ve seen only once this year, minimizing the split advantage Sanchez usually enjoys. With the game essentially a toss-up in his model (he makes it Phillies –125), Howard believes the Nats’ big price is "too fat to ignore" and will sprinkle the money-line plus a smaller piece on the first-five line.

Kyle Purviance called the Cubs his "spot of the day" with Matthew Boyd taking the hill against Carmen Lazzinski. Pittsburgh is bottom-seven in wRC+ and ISO versus left-handed pitching, while Boyd has held left-side opponents to a .298 wOBA through four starts. Lazzinski’s arsenal sits in a tight 86–92 MPH band, giving hitters no velocity separation; Purviance joked that every pitch "looks like batting practice." He expects Chicago’s lefty-heavy top of the order—Pete Crow-Armstrong, Michael Busch, and Seiya Suzuki—to torch Lazzinski early, but admitted the Cubs bullpen owns the second-worst ERA in baseball. Because of that late-inning concern, he prefers laying –0.5 in the first five innings or pairing the full-game –1.5 in a run-line parlay. Purviance will also sprinkle Lazzinski under strikeouts (projected at 4.5) and dabble in Chicago hitters’ RBI props.

Brian Howard said he is comfortable laying the run line with New York tomorrow because he thinks rookie southpaw Cade Povich is badly over-matched. Povich has allowed a .285 xBA, 46% hard-hit rate, and failed to complete five innings in four of his first five MLB starts, surrendering seven earned to Cincinnati in one of them. Howard noted the Yankees just hung 15 runs earlier tonight, calling their lineup “contagious” when it gets rolling and pointing to Aaron Judge’s 1.106 OPS against lefties as the spark. Even though Carlos “Cookie” Carrasco is a volatile veteran, Howard trusts him more than Povich and expects another short outing to push Baltimore’s already-taxed bullpen into the game by the fourth or fifth inning. With New York only –120 on the money-line, Howard prefers the better payout on –1.5 runs and will pair that leg in multi-team run-line parlays.

Purviance singled out Pete Alonzo’s RBI/total-base props against Corbin Burnes, noting the former Cy Young winner is throwing his cutter 55% of the time this year—exactly the pitch Alonzo punishes. The Mets slugger has a .608 xSLG and 18° average launch angle versus cutters since 2023, and five of his last nine homers have come on that pitch. Purviance added that Francisco Lindor and Juan Soto’s elite on-base skills ahead of Alonzo should guarantee traffic, while Burnes’ cutter has lost 1.5 MPH and two inches of horizontal break compared to his 2022 peak. Books typically hang Alonzo at –105 for over 1.5 total bases and +125 for an RBI; Purviance likes both, with a sprinkle on a home-run prop around +350.

Kyle Purviance circled Jose Ramirez’s runs + hits + RBIs prop, expecting it to clear 1.5 against Pablo Lopez. Ramirez is 7-for-19 (.368) lifetime off Lopez with six singles, a triple, and—crucially—zero strikeouts, suggesting he sees Lopez’s arsenal very well. Kyle noted Ramirez’s consistent contact profile means even a ground-ball can plate a runner, and books often post the R+H+RBI combo near even money (or a simple 0.5 Run/RBI prop at BetUS around +105). Because Ramirez rarely whiffs against Lopez’s fastball-changeup mix, Kyle believes every plate appearance carries real RBI or run-scoring upside and prefers this prop to standard total bases.

Brian Howard recommended finding every reasonable way to get money on the Padres—full-game moneyline, first five, or inclusion in parlays—thanks to Michael King’s edge over Giants rookie Landen Roupp. Howard likes King’s deep pitch mix and recent strikeout ability (nine punch-outs versus a low-K Rays lineup two starts ago). Roupp, by contrast, just surrendered five earned in 3.2 innings to Milwaukee and, in Brian’s words, now looks "there for the taking." He also prefers San Diego’s lineup depth over San Francisco’s, especially in a game with a low seven-run total where a single crooked inning could decide it.

Kyle Purviance advised laying the 1.5 runs with Atlanta when Chris Sale faces rookie Chase Dollander in Colorado. Kyle called the Rockies "the worst team I've ever seen" and noted they are striking out roughly one-third of the time against left-handed pitching while carrying a bottom-tier OPS in that split. Sale, meanwhile, "needs this game" and draws an offense that whiffs incessantly. On the other side, Dollander has already been tagged in Coors and owns shaky minor-league numbers, giving the Braves’ loaded lineup a huge edge. Because the moneyline is certain to be heavily juiced (he expects around –290 or shorter), Kyle prefers the run line or using Atlanta in a road-team run-line parlay.

Kyle Purviance said the only way to attack Tuesday’s Michael Lorenzen v. Taj Bradley matchup is to smash the over 8.5 runs. He reminded listeners that the Rays are still playing in their spring-training bandbox—“the Tampa minor-league stadium”—and the baseball is jumping there every night. Both starters are contact-heavy: Lorenzen’s 18.2% strike-out rate and Bradley’s 1.70 HR/9 have produced crooked numbers all month. Kyle has blindly played overs at the park the last two series (seven of the past nine games have cleared the number) and sees no reason to stop until the market adjusts. He recommended locking in over 8.5 while it is still below nine.

Brian Howard called the Colorado Rockies “the worst team in the history of baseball” and will fire on an Atlanta Braves double-result (lead after five innings and win the game) as long as it returns plus money. Even without knowing Atlanta’s starter, Howard is confident because Colorado is 5-21 on the road, ranks dead last in wRC+, and trots out German Marquez, who is easing back from Tommy John surgery and has surrendered a .406 OBP the first time through the order. Atlanta’s offense, averaging 5.6 runs per game at home, should jump on Marquez early, and Howard trusts the Braves’ top-five bullpen to finish the job.

Brian Howard is taking Arizona on the money line at roughly +125 with Eduardo Rodriguez opposing David Peterson. Howard noted the Diamondbacks own a .352 wOBA and the fourth-best OPS in baseball versus left-handed pitching, while Peterson is the same arm he has “picked on for years,” carrying a 10.4% walk rate and a .284 xBA against his four-seamer this season. Meanwhile Rodriguez has posted a respectable 3.29 ERA/1.24 WHIP and just stifled Miami over seven innings. Howard also cited the situational edge: Arizona has been sitting in Queens since Sunday, whereas the Mets played a getaway game in Washington and flew home. For him it is “dog or pass,” and the plus-money dog is worth the trigger.

Brian Howard is locking in Reds ‑0.5 in the first five innings at even money. He explained that Miles Mikolas’ 15.8% strikeout rate means Cincinnati will constantly put the ball in play, and several Reds crush four-seamers: Matt McLain carries an 85% hard-hit rate and .353 xBA, Blake Dunn owns a .344 xBA, and Elly De La Cruz has a +4 run value versus heaters. On the other side, Brady Singer’s heavy sinker/slider mix profiles well; only one Cardinal shows an xBA over .300 versus sinkers, while his slider generates whiff rates north of 30% across the lineup. Howard expects Cincinnati to "hang ten" early and thinks the first-five run line is the safest play, with a full-game double-result as an optional bonus.

Brian Howard flagged Kyle Gibson 5+ strikeouts at +120 as a sneaky value. The Yankees own the third-highest K-rate in MLB (behind only the Angels and Rockies) and were just fanned eight times by rookie Tomiakia Sagano. Howard believes Baltimore will let Gibson work deeper than usual because of their rotation issues, giving him the volume needed to eclipse five punch-outs. With New York’s free-swinging lineup and plus money attached, Howard called the over 4.5/5+ K prop a worthwhile dart.

Kyle Purviance said the only playable side Tuesday is Yankees ‑1.5 at plus money. His core argument: Baltimore owns the worst batting average in baseball versus left-handed pitching (.177) and now draws Carlos Rodon. Even if "bad Rodon" shows up, Purviance thinks New York’s bats will punish Kyle Gibson, a contact arm the Yankees have seen plenty, and Baltimore’s thin bullpen. He also noted the late-inning upgrade with Luke Weaver replacing a shaky Devin Williams in the closer role. Purviance framed a full-game run line or Yankees double-result as the best way to attack the matchup.

Kyle Purviance said bettors should look to fade Atlanta whenever Bryce Elder is on the mound. He pointed to Monday’s game in Colorado as yet another example—despite the Rockies being baseball’s worst club, they jumped out to a quick 3-0 lead against Elder before falling apart late. Purviance’s broader point was that Elder rarely misses bats and routinely puts his team in early holes, creating live-bet or full-game opportunities to take the opposing side or the opposing team total. While the Braves’ offense can bail him out, Kyle emphasized that the right-hander’s volatility makes Atlanta overpriced whenever he draws the start.

Kyle Purviance said he is happy to lay the run-and-a-half with Philadelphia in Saturday’s near-pick’em against Chicago. Purviance dismissed Colin Rea’s last outing—when the journeyman shut the Phils down—as a pure blip, calling Rea “dog-shit, not good” and noting the right-hander’s middling stuff will not survive a second look from Bryce Harper and company. With the full-game moneyline bouncing between –112 and –108, Kyle feels the run-line will open at +140 or better and gives bettors a cleaner way to attack a matchup in which he expects the Phillies’ offense to correct last week’s embarrassment. He framed the wager as a straight fade of Rea rather than a play on the Cubs, adding that Philadelphia’s rested high-leverage bullpen arms make the late innings far less volatile than the first meeting.

Kyle Purviance reiterated that Detroit remains a buy at –120 in Saturday’s makeup opener against Baltimore. He and Brian handicapped the matchup before Friday’s rain-out and nothing has changed in Kyle’s eyes: former No.1 overall pick Casey Mize is healthy again and draws rookie Brandon Young, who is making just his second big-league start. Kyle noted the Tigers’ decision to keep Mize on normal rest signals confidence in his pitch count, while Baltimore’s bullpen is stretched after yesterday’s double-header shuffle. With the better starter, a rested high-leverage trio, and a still-short money-line number, Kyle advised sticking with Detroit rather than chasing a volatile first-five or run-line angle.

Brian Howard recommended bypassing the steep –192 moneyline on Cincinnati and instead betting the Reds ‘double result’ (lead after five innings and win the game) to snag a plus-money number. His logic: Hunter Greene should dominate early, and with reliever Ian Jabot already throwing the night before, Cincinnati’s shakiest high-leverage arm is unlikely to be available to melt the lead late. Howard believes Colorado’s league-worst 80 wRC+ on the road and their 0.78 runs per first five innings against right-handers make the double-result a cleaner, more profitable angle than laying heavy juice or messing with an inflated run line.

Brian Howard shifted his Texas stance to the first-five inning market, saying he would "take Tyler Mahle tomorrow, first five" rather than the full-game line. Howard raved about Mahle’s 3-0 record, microscopic 0.68 ERA, and 0.83 WHIP, calling the right-hander "straight up better than Verlander" and shrugging off the matchup with Robbie Ray by adding, "don’t care." He argued that isolating the opening five frames lets bettors capitalize on Mahle’s current dominance before either bullpen becomes a factor. Howard also pointed to a real-time odds swing—from Rangers +1.5 (-180) to ‑1.5 (+140) while they were on air—as evidence that the market is already moving in Texas’ favor, reinforcing his confidence in the first-five play.

Brian Howard plans to fire on Texas at –105 with Tyler Mahle opposing Robbie Ray on Saturday. Mahle’s surface numbers (3-0, 0.68 ERA, 0.83 WHIP) back up the eye test—his four-seamer has jumped two ticks post-surgery and opponents have managed just a .191 xBA through four starts. Howard trusts Mahle far more than Ray, who is making only his second appearance off Tommy John and surrendered a 44% hard-hit rate to right-handed bats in that debut. He added a sprinkle on a Willie Adames home-run prop, pointing out that Adames owns a lifetime .536 slug versus lefties and Ray’s fly-ball tendencies could be punished in the warmer Bay Area weather. Howard expects the Rangers’ lineup to bounce back after being held in check by Justin Verlander’s “corpse” on Friday, projecting a 5–3 type win that cashes both the moneyline and Adames long-ball ticket.

Brian Howard circled Hunter Greene’s strikeout props as the way to attack Saturday’s Reds–Rockies game. Howard dug into Colorado’s numbers and found they have fanned 180 times in just 553 plate appearances versus right-handed pitching – a 32.5% K-rate that dwarfs every other club once you adjust for volume. Greene’s high-octane four-seamer (average 98.6 mph) and 30% career strikeout rate match perfectly with that weakness. Howard wants plus money before firing: he’d pass on 8+ Ks at +110 but would gladly ladder to 10+ if books hang something near 3-to-1. He framed the play purely as a Rockies “auto-fade” against good righties and expects Greene’s velocity to overwhelm a lineup that has struck out more on the road than at Coors.

Brian Howard said he wants exposure to Detroit’s left-handed bats—specifically Kerry Carpenter RBI or total-hit props—when they face Charlie Morton in the nightcap. Howard’s angle is simple: Morton "cannot get a lefty out" right now, coughing up a .296 average and .394 wOBA to left-handed hitters since the start of 2024. Carpenter logged a .522 slugging percentage against righties last season and owns the highest hard-hit rate on the club through April, making him Howard’s favorite target. Brian suggested stacking Carpenter with other Detroit lefties like Riley Greene in same-game parlays or laddering Carpenter 2-plus hits for plus money, expecting the Tigers to chase Morton early.

Kyle Purviance said to fire on Josh Jung’s home-run prop at +750 for Friday’s Giants–Rangers game. Purviance argued the number is too long given Jung’s underlying profile: despite launching only two long balls so far, Jung continues to grade out well on the power metrics Purviance tracks ("he profiles well") and faces an aging Justin Verlander whom Purviance called "isn't great" at this stage. Purviance believes the matchup plus Texas’ hitter-friendly park create the perfect spot for a breakout swing and labeled the +750 price a clear value play for bettors hunting a one-swing payday.

Kyle Purviance listed Andrew Abbott’s strike-out over as one of his best bets, saying he will fire on any 6-plus ladder the books post. Purviance reminded listeners that Abbott just fanned 13 in his last turn and now draws a Colorado lineup that has whiffed 77 times in 241 plate appearances versus lefties—a staggering 31.9% rate. Even at Coors Field, he expects the elevation to be neutralized by the Rockies’ chase-happy approach and their bottom-five wRC+ against southpaws. Purviance prefers an alt number because he expects the main line to open around 5.5 juiced; he is comfortable up to 6.5 at plus money, reasoning that Abbott’s swing-and-miss changeup profiles perfectly against Colorado’s aggressive left-hand bats.

Kyle Purviance said he is stepping up to the plate with Rangers –1.5 at +150 because he believes the gap between Nathan Eovaldi and the current version of Justin Verlander is wider than the market assumes. Purviance rattled off Verlander’s recent blemishes—at least two walks in four straight starts, an early yank in Seattle after getting tattooed, a five-run outing versus Cincinnati—and contrasted them with Eovaldi’s solid workload and strike-throwing. He also leaned on matchup data: San Francisco sits 20th in batting average (.237) and has only 19 homers in 578 PA against right-handed pitching, while Texas, despite a .219 average, brings more left-handed thump (21 HR in 584 PA) that could punish Verlander’s diminished velocity. With both clubs already in the Bay Area, Purviance dismissed the travel angle but argued the cross-bay team bus actually boosts clubhouse vibes for Texas. Bottom line: Eovaldi plus a livelier lineup and essentially no travel tax lets bettors trade a coin-flip money-line for juicy run-line odds.

Brian Howard wants a piece of the FIRST FIVE UNDER when Paul Skenes squares off with Yoshinobu Yamamoto on Friday. The full-game total opened at a stingy 7, so Howard expects the F5 number to surface at 3.5 (possibly juiced) or 4 flat. He argued the early innings favor a pitchers’ duel: • The Dodgers strike out a ton for a contending lineup, giving Skenes upside even though his triple-digit heater has appeared less frequently (only 17 pitches at 100+ mph so far). • Pittsburgh’s offense is bottom-five in wRC+, meaning Yamamoto can dominate with his splitter even if Skenes is merely solid. • Both starters routinely work into the sixth, allowing bettors to eliminate the volatile Pirate and Dodger middle relievers that exploded in their last series. Howard said he will fire on any 3.5 at –120 or better and might parlay it with his previously discussed Rockies–Reds F5 under to sweeten the payout.

Brian Howard recommended taking Under 9 runs (even money) in Coors Field because both offenses are inept against left-handed pitching. The Reds enter Friday hitting .188 with 53 strikeouts to just 36 hits versus southpaws, third-worst in MLB. Colorado is only marginally better at .216 and has fanned 77 times in 241 plate appearances against lefties. With Andrew Abbott coming off a 13-strikeout outing and Kyle Freeland’s soft-tossing profile actually neutralizing the Reds’ platoon bats, Howard expects a slow early pace and suggested an Under 4.5 in the first five as an alternate. He acknowledged that both bullpens are shaky but argued the strikeout-heavy matchup outweighs Coors’ park factor, estimating the true total at 8.1 runs after adjusting for the clubs’ combined 77 wRC+ versus lefties.

Kyle Purviance explained why he will bypass Logan Gilbert’s standard strike-out prop (projected at 8+ Ks) and instead sprinkle the ALT 10-plus market if books hang it around +360. Gilbert faces a Marlins lineup that owns the sixth-highest strike-out rate versus right-handed pitching (26.8 %) but books have adjusted, routinely pricing his 8-plus line at –105 to –120. Purviance refuses to lay chalk on such a high bar, citing umpire randomness—he lost three K’s on blown third-strike calls in MacKenzie Gore’s last start—as well as Seattle’s willingness to lift starters if they log a stressful inning early. By hunting the 10-plus ladder at 3.5-to-1 or better, he maximizes return while accepting the inherent volatility, arguing that if Gilbert is locked in, he can eclipse double-digit punch-outs for the third time in nine home outings.

Kyle Purviance said he plans to attack Chris Sale’s strike-out prop from the UNDER side when books post it. His logic is simple: Arizona is one of the toughest lineups in baseball to fan from the left-handed side, striking out only 33 times in 205 plate appearances against southpaws (16.1 % K-rate) while batting a respectable .234. Purviance noted that Sale has "looked great" on the surface but will not have his usual swing-and-miss safety net against a contact-oriented Diamondbacks club that ranks 13th in average versus lefties and rarely chases out of the zone. Because the total opened 8.5 juiced to the under, Kyle expects books to hang Sale around 6.5–7.5 Ks, a number he believes the veteran struggles to reach without the whiff-happy opponents he faced in earlier starts. He will wait for the prop to open, but anything near even money on the under earns a wager in his portfolio.

Kyle Purviance declared Thursday “an all-Detroit spot,” recommending the Tigers double-result (lead after 5 innings and win the game) against Baltimore. He highlighted Orioles call-up Brandon Young’s brutal 2.50 WHIP— even worse than the 2.20 mark they faded on Chris Paddock earlier in the week— and noted that Young must now travel to Comerica after the O’s just finished a series on the road. Purviance is not interested in backing Baltimore against any competent right-hander, travel day or not, and he trusts Casey Mize’s recent uptick (three straight quality starts, 55 % ground-ball rate) to keep Detroit in front early. With the Tigers riding a 7-3 stretch and Young’s control issues setting up traffic on the bases, he views the double-result price as the cleanest way to exploit the matchup. For totals players, he also leaned Over 8.5 citing two volatile arms, but his primary wager is Detroit to lead and win.

Kyle Purviance said he will back Kansas City at +105 because he trusts Seth Lugo far more than Hayden Wesneski and believes the Royals ‘cheat at home.’ Lugo’s 1.02 WHIP and 55 % ground-ball rate make him a difficult matchup for an Astros lineup that has been merely league-average in slugging on the road. Meanwhile, Wesneski posts reverse splits; his 5.12 FIP against right-handed bats sets up well for Bobby Witt Jr. and Salvador Perez, both of whom crush sinker/slider pitchers. Purviance added that Kansas City’s bats “finally woke up today” and that Kauffman Stadium’s cavernous outfield suppresses Houston’s power advantage. Though co-host Brian Howard pushed back, Purviance said he is considering a full-game money-line and a plus-240 double-result ticket to exploit Kansas City’s 13–5 record when leading after five innings.

Purviance said if Minnesota sticks with rookie Simeon Woods Richardson instead of Pablo Lopez, he will fire on the Angels to lead after 5 innings and win the game at prices north of +200. His reasoning: Woods Richardson owns just 7.1 K/9, gives up a 41 % hard-hit rate, and rarely works beyond the fifth, forcing Minnesota’s thin bullpen to soak up outs. Los Angeles counters with a re-shuffled lineup now featuring a healthy Taylor Ward and the recently activated Anthony Rendon, which Purviance believes bumps their wRC+ against right-handers back into league-average territory. He also argued that the Twins have no business laying –185 to –205 with an offense that sits bottom-10 in OPS and ISO. “If we get the rookie not Lopez, I am taking the double result every time,” he concluded.

Purviance recommended Yankees –1.5 or, preferably, the double-result at roughly +140 against Toronto. He is committed to fading Jose Berrios, pointing to Berrios’ career 5.86 ERA in Yankee Stadium and the fact Aaron Judge has already taken him deep five times. Purviance admitted Carlos Carrasco is a sweat, but emphasized two mitigating factors: (1) manager Aaron Boone will give Carrasco a quick hook in a division game, leaning on New York’s rested bullpen, and (2) the Blue Jays’ staff overall has been nearly as shaky as Baltimore’s, posting a 4.94 team ERA in April. With the Yankees laying only –135 in a premium hitting environment (total set at 10), he views the first-five lead plus full-game win as the sharpest way to capture New York’s lineup advantage while limiting late-inning variance.

Kyle Purviance said he will attack Zach Neto’s first plate appearance with a strike-out prop that projects around +290 if Pablo Lopez draws the start Friday. Purviance pointed to Neto’s brutal BvP line—six punch-outs in 10 or 11 career plate appearances versus Lopez—and noted that even limited sample sizes matter when a hitter is whiffing 60 % of the time against a specific offering mix. Lopez’s fastball/change combo played Neto into the worst contact quality of any Angels regular last year, and Purviance expects the Minnesota right-hander to open with his high-usage changeup, forcing Neto into protect mode immediately. Because books now hang individual PA K props, Purviance prefers the first-AB market over Lopez’s full-game strikeout total, calling it “a cheaper sweat with far better pay-out.”