Mader hit the Over 63.5 rushing yards for Ashton Jeanty, projecting 68.5 yards with a 56.2% win rate at -113. Jeanty owns a stable 15-19 carry workload and has hovered in the mid-60s to low-70s for weeks. Dallas surrenders 110+ rushing yards per game to backs on 4.9 YPC and also allows big receiving totals, signaling a front seven that can be gashed. As long as Las Vegas avoids an early two-score hole, Jeanty’s volume plus favorable efficiency should get him home. Game-flow collapse is the lone worry.

Williams’ line is 48.5, and Mader projects 51.0 yards with a 54.9% cover chance at -110. Williams now runs 30-35 routes and sees 6-8 targets that include deep posts, digs and overs. Philadelphia permits roughly 150 WR yards per game and sits near the bottom in explosive-pass rate allowed. In a likely up-tempo contest where Detroit could be chasing, Williams’ vertical speed plus emerging intermediate usage offer multiple paths to 50+ yards. Target dispersion within Detroit’s crowded passing tree is the only real concern.

Mader projected Jahmyr Gibbs for 66.0 rushing yards and fired on the Over 61.5 at -112 (57.2% hit rate). Gibbs has averaged 14-18 carries recently, posting 60-90 yards in competitive games, and owns several 15-yard bursts behind Detroit’s gap concepts. Philadelphia quietly allows 4.0 YPC and 88 RB rushing yards per game, softening their perceived run-wall reputation. A tight spread keeps Detroit balanced, and Gibbs also closes games when ahead. Only a sudden pass-heavy pivot while trailing or David Montgomery siphoning early-down volume dents the play.

Mader tabbed the Over 45.5 receiving yards for Khalil Shakir, printing a 49.6-yard projection and 58.2% probability at -111. Shakir now runs 30-34 routes, drawing 5-7 targets as a full-time slot weapon, and has landed between 40-60 yards in four straight games. Tampa Bay’s defense bleeds yardage to WRs (160 per game) and ranks near the bottom in slot YPRR allowed. With Buffalo still leaning pass-heavy even when favored, Shakir has a clear runway for mid-40s plus yardage barring an early blowout that throttles second-half volume.

With J.K. Dobbins ruled out, Mader projects RJ Harvey for 16.8 receiving yards and backs the Over 15.5 at -114 (52.5% cover). Harvey already ran 10-14 routes weekly, but a lead-back snap share should lift him to 3-5 targets. Kansas City allows 30+ receiving yards to RBs per game, preferring to guard deep and concede underneath throws. A likely trailing script versus the Chiefs amplifies check-downs and designed screens. Only an unexpected committee split or total offensive collapse spoils the bet.

Mader leans Over 31.5 rushing yards for Zach Charbonnet, projecting 33.0 yards with a 52.9% cover chance at -112. Charbonnet sees 8-12 carries as Seattle’s downhill complement and averages 4-5 YPC when the game remains close. The Rams surrender chunk runs between the tackles and struggle to tackle physical backs early, a description tailor-made for Charbonnet’s style. The wager is fully volume-dependent—fall behind early and the carries vanish—but in the projected tight NFC West tilt, 8-10 touches should be enough to cash.

Mader hammered the Over 37.5 receiving yards for Christian Watson, posting a 50.1-yard projection and hefty 73.5% cover probability at -114. Watson logs 32-35 routes and sees 5-7 targets with multiple deep shots each week. The Giants blitz-heavy, man-coverage scheme creates constant single-coverage go-routes, a template that has them near the bottom of the league in explosive-pass prevention. Even with occasional drops or run-heavy spurts, Watson needs just one or two connections to soar past this modest line.

Jacobs’ line sits at 80.5 rushing yards, but Mader’s 78.0-yard projection and 46.9% cover probability steer him to the Under. While Jacobs has cleared 80 in several recent games on 19-23 carries, the number leaves little room if Green Bay falls behind or efficiency dips. The Giants’ run defense is inconsistent but not a total pushover, and any script that pushes the Packers into throw-mode can drop Jacobs’ carries into the mid-teens, historically his danger zone for sub-80 outcomes. Given the thin negative edge and volatility, Mader calls this his lone fade on the slate.

Mader played the Over 20.5 receiving yards for Chase Brown, projecting 23.1 yards with a 54.9% probability at -110. Brown has become the screen and check-down specialist, running 10-15 routes and drawing 3-5 targets in close games. With Samaje Perine (ankle) out, Brown’s third-down snaps climb further. Pittsburgh willingly concedes underneath catches to backs while its pass rush forces quick outlets, a dynamic that suits Brown’s burst in space. Volume is the only red flag if the Bengals opt to keep another back in to block.

Mader is tentatively on the Over 52.5 receiving yards for DK Metcalf, showing a 53.3-yard projection and 51.4% cover chance at -114. Metcalf still runs 35+ routes and commands 6-8 targets, many of them deep or intermediate isolations. Cincinnati’s outside corners have struggled with physical, vertical receivers, allowing an above-average explosive-pass rate. In a neutral-pace divisional game expecting 28-34 Steelers attempts, even modest efficiency should land Metcalf in the mid-50s. Efficiency variance or a surprise run-heavy pivot are the main outs against the bet.

Mader endorsed Over 1.5 passing TDs for Aaron Rodgers at -182, projecting 1.92 scores with a 57.2% hit rate. Rodgers has thrown two TDs in three of his last four, sees 2-4 red-zone attempts weekly and has Pittsburgh calling quick-game and isolation concepts near the goal line. Cincinnati’s defense ranks in the league’s bottom tier for red-zone pass efficiency, repeatedly giving up slants, crossers and MOF layers—Rodgers’ bread-and-butter. Risk centers on the Steelers deciding to pound it in or Cincinnati’s rush forcing conservative calls, but the volume of high-leverage throws tilts toward another two-score day.

Mader hammered the Over 260.5 passing yards for Joe Flacco, hanging a 294.2-yard projection with a 64.4% cover probability at -113. Flacco has logged 260-320+ yards lately on 35-42 attempts and is pushing the ball vertically with an elevated yards-per-attempt. A likely shootout environment against Cincinnati’s quick-strike offense forces volume, while Pittsburgh’s secondary has leaked explosive plays on crossers and deep overs all season. The Steelers generate pressure inconsistently unless they blitz, which plays right into Flacco’s strength of dissecting from a clean pocket. Only a protection collapse or run-heavy shocker by Pittsburgh could derail the play.

Mader likes the Over 79.5 rushing yards for De'Von Achane, projecting 82.0 yards with a 53.2% hit rate at -112. Achane owns a 6.0+ YPC clip with multiple 20-yard bursts in recent weeks and typically sees 12-16 carries—volume that climbs when Miami is favored and searching for chunk plays with Tyreek Hill sidelined. Washington’s front has hemorrhaged outside-zone explosives and ranks among the league’s worst in run defense success rate. If Miami controls the Madrid matchup as projected, Achane’s 14-18 carry path easily puts him on track to cash. The only pitfall is a possible backfield rotation or game turning into a rout that siphons late touches.

Dan Mader backed the Over 78.5 receiving yards for Jaylen Waddle, noting a projection of 83.7 yards with a 56.4% cover probability at -111. Since Tyreek Hill’s season-ending injury, Waddle has morphed into Miami’s clear WR1, logging 96-100% of snaps, 38-42 routes and a 28-32% target share. His yards per route run has spiked while producing 80+ yards in two of his last three full-speed games. Miami’s home pace and 24-26-point implied total create extra play volume, and Washington’s zone unit ranks bottom-five in explosive-pass rate allowed and is notoriously soft against motion receivers. The only real concerns are bracket coverage and a fourth-quarter slowdown if the Dolphins boat-race the Commanders, but Mader still sees enough volume, route diversity and matchup juice to clear the number.