Dabbundo grabbed Baltimore +1.5, noting that the playoff meeting in January closed around pick’em and the matchup fundamentals remain unchanged—except the Ravens get Zay Flowers and change-of-pace back Keaton Mitchell back from injury. Buffalo’s defense finished 28th in EPA after removing turnover plays, a volatility Dabbundo distrusts. He felt fortunate backing the Bills in January when Baltimore out-snapped them on a per-play basis, and he expects the healthier Ravens to flip the script this time.

Dabbundo laid the 2.5 with Green Bay, citing continuity. Jeff Hafley returns after engineering a top-10 defense, while Detroit replaces both play-calling coordinators and must fill Frank Ragnow’s retirement at center. Jordan Love piloted offenses that finished sixth and fourth in efficiency the last two years, and DVOA had virtually no gap between the clubs in 2024. With home field and coaching stability, Dabbundo believes the wrong team would be favored on a neutral field.

Dabbundo fired on Seattle +2.5. He likes new OC Klint Kubiak’s heavy play-action approach to hide a shaky offensive line—something Kubiak did successfully with New Orleans early last year. On the other side, he’s skeptical of San Francisco’s hype: Brandon Aiyuk is still recovering from a knee injury, Deebo Samuel is gone, and the receiver room is thin behind Jauan Jennings. With Mike Macdonald’s defense one of the few he trusts to slow a Kyle Shanahan system, Dabbundo sees value in the home underdog.

Dabbundo took Big Blue +6.5, arguing perception hasn’t caught up to reality. The same roster that lost to Washington by only three and five points last season now has Russell Wilson at quarterback and explosive first-round edge Abdul Carter. He thinks 2024’s tank job—11 losses in the final 12 games—created an inflated line, especially against a Commanders squad he believes is aging and primed for regression.

Dabbundo grabbed Browns +5.5, leaning on the 23-7 ATS record for home divisional underdogs in Week 1 since 2010. He views Cleveland as a classic dead-cat bounce offense: Joe Flacco stabilizes a QB room that finished 46th in EPA + CPOE last year, and the Bengals’ weak pass rush masks the Browns’ injured 2024 offensive line. Defensively, Myles Garrett and first-round DT Mason Graham should overwhelm a porous Cincinnati front. Dabbundo reminded readers that Joe Burrow starts seasons slowly and holds the ball longer than most, a dangerous combo against Jim Schwartz’s aggressive scheme.

Anthony Dabbundo bet Dallas +8.5, calling the number an over-reaction to Micah Parsons being shipped to Green Bay. He pointed out the line opened at +6.5 and ballooned past one score despite Dak Prescott ranking 10th of 81 qualified QBs in EPA per play since 2021. Dabbundo trusts Prescott’s proven ability to mount late scoring drives and noted that Philadelphia’s defense will debut five new starters while still juggling the CB2 job opposite Quinyon Mitchell. With Vic Fangio moving pieces like Cooper DeJean around and depth thinner than last season, Dabbundo doubts the Eagles can dominate enough to cover such a big banner-night spread against an offense that went 36-15 in Prescott’s three healthy regular seasons before 2024.