The Weasle said a rear-naked choke or face-crank is the single most likely finishing sequence because Dricus Du Plessis repeatedly gifts his back when he panics under mount. He walked through three examples: Du Plessis trying a desperation counter-shot on Derek Brunson, immediately ending up mounted with one arm trapped; surrendering his back to avoid Brunson’s ground-and-pound; and nearly doing the same versus Darren Till after a caught kick. Brunson never threw hooks or chased the choke, but Chimaev "would be looking to get both hooks in, break your teeth with the face-crank, and never let you stand up." Given that Brunson produced those openings without even trying, The Weasle argued the RNC/face-crank prop (available at much longer odds than generic submission) is mispriced. He recommends sprinkling “Chimaev by rear-naked choke” or “Chimaev submission Round 1” instead of the broad ITD market, projecting the back-take to happen within the first scramble once Du Plessis inevitably turtles.

The Weasle balked at Ricky Simon being a –500 favorite over Cameron Smotherman (+350). While Simon’s chain-wrestling still makes him the pick, the analyst pegged a fair line around –200, noting several knockout risks. Smotherman carries genuine one-shot power and Simon’s plodding entries leave his chin exposed—an issue that nearly cost him against lesser punchers. Because Simon typically needs one takedown per round to seal minutes, any scramble he loses in open space could end with him on the wrong end of a big counter. The Weasle recommended either passing on the moneyline or taking a small stab at the Smotherman KO prop, which should sit north of +600.

Malcolm Wellmaker opened at a staggering –2000 against Chris Moutinho (+1000), but The Weasle called that number "insane." He still expects Wellmaker’s counter power to produce a first-round knockout, yet he emphasized that an –800 tag would more accurately reflect the matchup. Moutinho’s 2024 tape shows crisper boxing mechanics, new body-kick combinations, and better left-hand counters—enough tools to make a freak upset slightly more plausible than the 5% probability implied by +1000. Punters already holding Wellmaker tickets should consider hedge sprinkles on Moutinho or simply pass on the side and look for a knockout-prop instead.

Reacting to the current line of Rose Namajunas –255 versus +200 Miranda Maverick, The Weasle said Rose is not being priced high enough. He reiterated that Maverick’s plodding footwork and predictable overhands give her few realistic paths, while Namajunas owns the sharper lateral movement, higher striking accuracy, and the ability to mix in reactive doubles merely to keep Maverick guessing. Given that stylistic gap, he feels Rose should sit closer to the –400 range. Bettors laying chalk on Namajunas or using her as a parlay anchor are still getting value, in his view.

The Weasle argued that the betting market is over-correcting against Kamaru Usman. Buckley is sitting around –270 while Usman is +210, a spread the analyst said only makes sense if the former champion is completely washed – a notion he rejects. Usman has gone five rounds repeatedly and still looked durable in recent losses, whereas Buckley’s longest UFC appearance is three rounds. If Usman leans on his excellent fight IQ and systematically digs body shots early, The Weasle believes he can sap Buckley’s power and seize the championship rounds. Although he is still officially picking Buckley by third-round TKO, he labeled Usman a live underdog worth considering at the current number, projecting the true line closer to a pick’em or Buckley –140.

The Weasle predicted Joaquin Buckley to stop Kamaru Usman in round three, citing trajectory and stylistic wrinkles. Buckley has rattled off six straight at welterweight, fought four times in 2024 and owns the explosion to exploit Usman’s ageing knees and the habit of dropping his jab on the recoil—a flaw Colby Covington countered repeatedly. Expect Buckley to angle off center, fire oblique and side kicks to destabilize Usman’s base, then launch lunging hooks once the former champ’s jab retracts low. Usman still boasts elite fence wrestling and a damaging jab, but after an 18-month layoff and three consecutive losses, The Weasle questions whether his gas tank and reflexes remain championship level. If Usman cannot bully clinches early, Buckley’s foot-speed and combination punching should crack him and finish with ground-and-pound before championship rounds.

The Weasle sided with Rose Namajunas by decision over Miranda Maverick, despite acknowledging Rose has lost some pop and no longer works with Trevor Whitman at flyweight. Maverick is well-rounded but plodding; her striking and entries come in slow motion compared to Rose’s footwork. The analyst expects Namajunas to kite laterally, touch with the jab, mix in high kicks and occasionally shoot reactive doubles simply to keep Maverick guessing. Because Maverick telegraphs overhands and cannot match hand speed, The Weasle envisions her swinging at air while Rose lands two-to-one and exits. As long as Rose avoids prolonged clinches and doesn’t coast, her accuracy and movement should pile up points for a clear 30-27 or 29-28 result.

The Weasle forecasted Andre Petroski winning an uneventful decision over Edmen Shahbazyan by leaning on one takedown per round and heavy top pressure. Petroski’s wrestling first style has already produced victories despite microscopic output—only 23 significant strikes across three rounds versus Dylan Budka and just 12 against Josh Fremd—yet his control time keeps judges happy. Shahbazyan’s striking is levels above Petroski’s, but his takedown defense has crumbled against Derek Brunson, Jack Hermansson and Anthony Hernandez, each logging lengthy spells of control. The analyst admitted that if Edmen stuffs entries he likely scores a knockout, because Petroski is hittable and lacks volume standing. Still, he expects Petroski to grind from half-guard, land enough pitter-patter to avoid stand-ups and squeak out 29-28 scorecards.

The Weasle picked Cody Garbrandt to win a judges’ decision over Raoni Barcellos, but only if No Love keeps the fight clean. He noted both veterans own 80-plus % takedown defence and carry knockout power, yet Garbrandt’s rapid hand speed and superior head movement give him the technical edge at boxing range. Barcellos, who just landed a career-high eight takedowns on Peyton Talbot after never topping three before, will be slower and too static defensively—exactly the kind of target Garbrandt’s sharpshooting combinations punish. The analyst warned Garbrandt’s chin cannot survive another reckless brawl; Pedro Munhoz already proved that. A 16-month layoff is an X-factor, but if Cody sticks and moves, stuffs level changes and refuses to trade pocket hooks, his speed and accuracy should bank three rounds on the cards.

The Weasle said Michael Kiesa’s length, superior chain-wrestling and slick top game should overwhelm fellow veteran Court McGee, forecasting a third-round choke finish. Kiesa is the noticeably bigger welterweight and the better pure grappler; McGee’s jab and pressure could unsettle him—similar to what Kevin Holland did—but McGee lacks Holland’s knockout pop. Expect Kiesa to circle on athleticism rather than textbook defense, time reactive shots once McGee overcommits, and then dominate the scrambles. The analyst envisions Kiesa trapping an arm-triangle or taking the back for a rear-naked choke after wearing McGee out with positional control.

The Weasle predicted Malcolm Wellmaker will spoil Chris Moutinho’s UFC return with a late-first-round knockout. He acknowledged that Moutinho 2.0 looks sharper— cleaner boxing form, back-step left-hand counters, and new body-kick wrinkles—yet still marches straight forward without cutting the cage. That pressure is tailor-made for Wellmaker’s counter power. The analyst highlighted Wellmaker’s vicious one-punch KO of Cameron Saaiman, noting the same right-hook bomb will be waiting whenever Moutinho crashes range. Because Wellmaker hits noticeably harder, owns the technical striking edge, and needs only a single clean connection, The Weasle sees Moutinho’s improved durability cracking once the first big counter lands.

The Weasle predicted Jose Ochoa to stop Cody Durden in round two via head-kick TKO. Durden is a big, gritty flyweight who relentlessly hunts takedowns but repeatedly ducks his head—in fact, that habit got him dropped by Bruno Silva’s uppercut and Mohamed Mokaev’s flying knee. Ochoa is a switch-stance sniper with creative kicks and solid takedown defence. The analyst believes Ochoa will stuff enough shots to keep the fight upright, rack up damage at range, then time Durden’s next duck with a high kick that lands flush for the finish. Given Ochoa’s five-fight finishing streak and Durden’s defensive flaw, The Weasle views the knockout as more likely than a decision.

The Weasle projected Ricky Simon to smother Cameron Smotherman for three rounds and earn a unanimous decision. Smotherman’s boxing-heavy style and porous defense against takedowns make him a perfect target for Simon’s chain wrestling. Simon should avoid extended striking exchanges—where his plodding footwork can get him clipped—and instead hunt singles and doubles, either from the centre or against the fence. Once grounded, Smotherman is expected to struggle to stand because Simon excels at riding positions and mat returns. Unless Simon falls in love with his hands and gets caught, The Weasle sees his wrestling volume and top control sealing every round.

The Weasle predicted Arman Tsarukyan will dominate Justin Gaethje if the rumored No. 1-contender fight materializes. He highlighted Gaethje’s historically poor Brazilian jiu-jitsu—referencing Rafael Fiziev nearly catching an inverted triangle—and noted that while Gaethje has stout initial takedown defense, it will not withstand Tsarukyan’s relentless chain wrestling. Once on the ground, Tsarukyan’s top pressure and positional control should allow him to secure a submission even though submissions are not normally his finishing method. Given Gaethje’s deficiencies and Tsarukyan’s stylistic advantages, The Weasle declared Gaethje is “cooked” and advised backing Tsarukyan when lines open.

The Weasle argued the current line of roughly +285 on Charles Oliveira is a mis-price, insisting the bout should be near a pick-em. He emphasized Oliveira’s 74-inch reach, 5'11" frame and proven finishing power as major advantages over the shorter Ilia Topuria. Oliveira has demonstrated improved wrestling strength (multiple takedowns of Michael Chandler) and owns diverse finishing avenues: long- and mid-range kicks, knees, clinch elbows, as well as a lethal submission game. In contrast, Topuria thrives only in pocket boxing, rarely kicks, often drops his off-hand on combinations and looked vulnerable to height and reach when Jai Herbert nearly knocked him out. Moving up in weight introduces unknowns in Topuria’s cardio over five rounds and removes the safety net of his featherweight belt. Because Oliveira can knock out or submit Topuria from numerous positions and has fought his entire career at lightweight, The Weasle believes bettors should seize the generous underdog odds rather than lay −400 on Topuria.

The Weasle forecast Navajo Stirling to win by methodical third-round TKO. Sterling owns a sizeable reach edge, polished footwork, and superior shot selection, thriving in slow, patient fights – exactly the tempo Ivana Erslan prefers. Tape shows Erslan was dropped by Ion Cutelaba’s straight right and iced by Rafal Haratyk charging forward; Stirling variety and counters should replicate that damage while avoiding Erslan’s one-punch right-hand traps. Expect Sterling to pick him apart at range, then pour on strikes for a stoppage once cumulative damage adds up.

The Weasle projected Benoit Saint Denis to tap Kyle Prepolec mid-fight, calling the matchup a classic striker-versus-grappler that tilts heavily toward BSD once it hits the mat. Both men are southpaws with comparable hand speed, and Prepolec’s angular footwork plus slick counters could win early exchanges, especially because left-on-left stances mute BSD’s preferred body kick. However, Prepolec accepted the bout on short notice, has shown porous defensive wrestling in regional footage, and will be dealing with Saint Denis’ relentless double-legs and suffocating top game. The moment BSD secures a takedown, The Weasle expects a rapid positional advance to back mount or arm-triangle territory and a finish before the horn ends round two. He cautioned that staying upright gives Prepolec knockout chances—remember the lead-high-kick KO on his highlight reel—but trusts Saint Denis’ grappling advantage and gas tank to cash a sub ticket.

The Weasle urged listeners to throw a small bet on Kyle Prepolec at +700 even though he still projects Benoit Saint Denis to get his hand raised. At that price, he said you are paying for a miracle when Prepolec is actually a proven knockout artist with sharp south-paw counters, a sneaky left high-kick and crisp angles that can punish Saint Denis’ overly aggressive entries. Weasle reminded viewers that BSD has been rocked before — Nicolas Stolze wobbled him and Elizeu Zaleski dragged him into a brawl — so his defense is far from airtight. A single clean shot from Prepolec could cash a massive underdog ticket, and the Canadian’s power upside makes the +700 money-line simply mispriced. The official play: sprinkle Prepolec straight or as a hail-mary parlay piece while acknowledging Saint Denis by submission is still the most likely result.

The Weasle expects Belal Muhammad to retain his welterweight crown via grinding decision over Jack Della Maddalena. Jack is arguably the best pure boxer at 170—lightning counters, sharp reflexes—but his takedown defense has looked mortal against Gilbert Burns and Bassil Hafez. The Weasle noted two caveats: Della broke an arm against Burns and cut weight twice for Hafez, making those wrestling lapses hard to grade. Even so, Belal is the division’s premier fence wrestler, excels at cutting the cage with jab-into-double-leg sequences, and carries a five-round gas tank. Jack’s underhook-based scrambles will win some separations, and The Weasle thinks he stuffs a handful of shots, yet Belal’s relentless chain wrestling and top control should secure 3-4 rounds. At current odds of roughly –200, Muhammad by decision or simply money-line is the recommended play, with awareness that any clean break in space keeps Jack’s knockout threat live.

Bookmakers opened Valentina Shevchenko a slight underdog, and The Weasle believes that line is wrong—picking the former champ by decision. He sees a massive speed gulf: Shevchenko’s sniper counters, especially the right hook, are tailor-made for Manon Fiorot’s forward blitzes where she habitually raises her chin (exposed in the Erin Blanchfield fight). Both women are southpaws, which neutralizes their customary open-stance body kicks, but Shevchenko’s wrestling gives her an extra card to play. If exchanges stall, she can hit level changes or chain trip throws that test Fiorot’s clinch defense. While Fiorot is the physically larger flyweight with strong hips, The Weasle expects Shevchenko to mix takedowns, land the cleaner counters, and bank at least three rounds for a 48-47 type victory—making the dog money on Valentina a worthwhile stab.

The Weasle predicted a throwback Jose Aldo performance, calling for a second-round TKO over Aiemann Zahabi. Zahabi’s most realistic path is pinning Aldo to the fence for long clinch sequences, something both Mario Batista and champion Sean O’Malley attempted. But Aldo has spent two camps drilling fence escapes and still sports legendary takedown defense. In open space, Aldo’s speed, straight right, jab, and trademark left hook should pick apart Zahabi’s looping overhands. The Brazilian’s calf kicks are another weapon—notice Zahabi eating low kicks against Javid Basharat. Because Zahabi lacks one-shot power and must strike to hide level changes, The Weasle believes he walks onto clean counters and accumulates damage until Aldo pours on a finishing flurry.

The Weasle sided with Natalia Silva by razor-thin decision, stressing that her constant lateral movement and taekwondo arsenal are nightmare ingredients for Alexa Grasso’s plodding boxing style. Silva owns what he called "maybe the best footwork in the division," mixing stance switches, side-kicks to the body, and slick head movement that make her difficult to line up. Grasso’s win condition is cutting off the cage to plant straight combinations or opportunistically wrestle, yet tape shows she often lets opponents circle out after initial traps. Because flyweight knockouts are rare and Silva seldom plants her feet, The Weasle expects a stick-and-move, 15-minute affair where Silva’s speed and volume edge the scorecards despite Grasso having the heavier hands and occasional takedown threat.

The Weasle warned bettors that a late Charles Radtke finish is a real path despite favoring Mike Malott overall. He reminded listeners that Malott looked spectacular when he destroyed Neil Magny in one round, but immediately emptied the gas tank and lost the next two. Radtke, by contrast, does not fade, owns crisp body work and counter hooks, and carries power deep into fights. Malott will try to bank the first two rounds with takedowns and top control, yet if his cardio again bottoms out, Radtke’s killer instinct and superior fundamentals on the feet give him a live round-three knockout shot. Because only Blood Diamond has even attempted to wrestle Radtke in the UFC, his defensive grappling remains an unknown, but The Weasle believes the cardio dynamic alone makes the Radtke-RD3 KO prop an intriguing hedge for bettors holding Malott tickets.

The Weasle leaned toward Mike Malott, noting his grappling arsenal should trump Charles Radtke’s crisp boxing. Radtke has only faced one takedown attempt in the UFC—and it came from Blood Diamond—so his defensive wrestling is unproven. Malott averages 1.8 subs per 15 minutes, rag-dolled Neil Magny early, and can mix double-legs with opportunistic back takes. Radtke’s body work and counter right hand make the stand-up competitive, but Weasle thinks Malott’s A-side path (wrestle, advance, hunt chokes) and Canadian crowd boost lead to a money-line play on Malott, likely via submission or control-heavy decision.

The Weasle predicted hometown fighter Jasmine Jasudavicius to outpoint former champ Jessica Andrade. He argued Andrade is past her prime—coming off a KO loss to Natalia Silva—and still relies on blitzing hooks without nuanced entries. Jasudavicius rides a four-fight streak built on fundamental distance striking, solid defensive wrestling, and smart footwork. She owns the reach edge, fights behind a disciplined jab, and historically elevates performance in Canada. Weasle envisions a matador-versus-bull dynamic: Jasudavicius circling, stuffing fence clinches, tagging Andrade from range, and winning a clear 30-27 or 29-28 decision.

The Weasle sided with Modestas Bukauskas by decision, citing technical kickboxing, distance management, and a capable guard game against Ion Cutelaba’s wrestling resurgence. Bukauskas’ switch-stance attack, jab, and calf kicks should piece up Cutelaba provided he keeps his hands high—he was slept by Vitor Petrino after dropping the right. Cutelaba’s wild hooks can loop around but lack precision; if they miss, Bukauskas scores. On the mat, Bukauskas showed effective defensive guard versus Petrino, suggesting he can stall, force stand-ups, and win minutes on the feet. Avoiding a big overhand equals a 29-28 type victory.

The Weasle backed Bruno Silva by second-round knockout, arguing Barriault’s deteriorating chin cannot handle Silva’s power, even though both men look washed. Barriault is the cleaner all-round technician and could sprinkle takedowns, but every recent exchange shows him freezing when struck. Silva is slower these days yet still fires heavy overhands that skirt high guards with 4-oz gloves. Because both middleweights fight at a low clip, a single landed bomb decides the bout, and Weasle trusts Silva’s punch resistance over Barriault’s.

The Weasle predicted Daniel ‘Willycat’ Santos will break Li Zhe Young with relentless pressure and score a late third-round TKO. He pointed out that Santos mirrors Charles Oliveira’s stance and walk-down style, throws volume in the pocket, and welcomes chaos. Li’s tape shows decent linear footwork but almost zero head movement; he was repeatedly tagged by Hider Amil. Against Santos’ forward march, that stationary head is an invitation for hooks and body shots. Weasle expects Li to survive early but accumulate damage until referees step in.

The Weasle said Bekzat Almakhan is a live knockout pick, projecting a finish midway through Round 2. He highlighted Almakhan’s freakish power for a bantamweight, noting that even a grazing right hand floored Umar Nurmagomedov in the Kazakh’s debut – something no one else has done. Almakhan ‘pitches his right hand like a fastball,’ mixes in head-kicks and uppercuts, and still maintains balance despite over-committing. Brad Katona must fight perfectly for 15 minutes, yet film shows Katona is hittable and relies on boxing-wrestling blends that leave him open for timed uppers and overhands. Almakhan is also a competent defensive wrestler, so Weasle expects him to stuff enough double-legs to keep it standing and eventually crack Katona for a KO.

The Weasle advised backing Siri Sidey by second-round TKO. City owns a three-inch reach edge, superior footwork and throws fluid four-punch combos while angling out. Smotherman plods forward behind single feints, ‘loads up on telegraphed punches’ and must crash inside to score. That forward march walks him into Sidey check hooks, step-in knees and quick high kicks. If Smotherman shoots, Sidey active guard produces triangles and elbows. The Weasle expects a highlight strike—high kick or flying knee—to drop Smotherman, followed by ground-and-pound for the finish. Betting angles: Sidey money-line, Sidey R2/R3, or Sidey KO/TKO prop.

The Weasle said Ivana Petrovich is the side to back in the opener because she is simply more well-rounded. Petrovich owns the only functional ground game in the matchup and her striking, while not dynamic, is at least technically sound. Juliana Miller comes forward recklessly, but The Weasle noted she never cuts the cage, so her aggression turns into aimless pressure that does not score. With both women labeled as "slow, sloppy strikers," Petrovich’s grappling edge becomes the deciding factor. He expects Petrovich to bank minutes from top position and take a clear decision, making her a solid money-line play and a safe parlay piece.

The Weasle called Jillian Robertson a tap-out waiting to happen for Marina Rodriguez, predicting a Round-2 submission. Since 2019 Rodriguez has been taken down by every opponent, often flopping like Carlos Condit against basic doubles and singles. Robertson’s striking is below average, but her wrestling is competent enough to drag the fight down or even jump guillotines if necessary. Once on the mat, Robertson’s top control and slick BJJ make her, in The Weasle’s words, "an absolute monster." Bettors should target Robertson by submission props and Round-2 finish sprinklings.

The Weasle recommended Gaston Bolanos by decision, noting this will be a slow-paced, point-fighting affair. Bolanos brings nasty calf kicks, sharp elbows, and an unpredictable, choppy rhythm that routinely freezes opponents. Quang Lee is the cleaner technician, but The Weasle argued Lee gets complacent and allows long stretches without offense. Over three rounds Bolanos’ volume and low-kick scoring should sway the judges. Betting angles: Bolanos money-line plus fight-goes-distance, or Bolanos by decision at plus money.

The Weasle advised betting Thomas Peterson by decision. He highlighted that Dantel Mayes switches stances and throws unorthodox strikes, but the off-beat timing actually gets Mayes hit first. Peterson is a shorter southpaw who explodes into combinations that hide level changes; he took down every UFC opponent to date and even handled the much taller Muhammad Usman. With Mayes conceding takedowns and lacking defensive wrestling, Peterson’s mix of pocket boxing and chain wrestling should bank rounds. Lay the Peterson money-line or sprinkle Peterson-by-decision props, as The Weasle expects three grinding rounds rather than a finish.

The Weasle picked Cory Sandhagen to win a decision but warned that sportsbooks have over-corrected. He argued Sandhagen has become too content fighting for points after the Aljamain Sterling loss, shelving the finishing instincts that once made him dangerous. If Sandhagen shows that same safety-first version, Deiveson Figueiredo’s retained knockout power and newly embraced wrestling-jiu-jitsu blend make an upset realistic. Still, The Weasle believes Sandhagen’s cleaner footwork, higher strike volume and length will bank rounds as long as he avoids getting dropped. From a betting perspective he flatly rejected the −550 money-line—"never in a million years"—calling Sandhagen by decision at −150 the only playable angle on the favorite. If forced to bet the fight, he would sprinkle Figueiredo money-line at +410 for the finishing upside while passing on everything else.

The Weasle forecasted Reinier de Ridder to submit Bo Nickal in the third. He called de Ridder a ‘Driscus 2.0’—awkward but effective on the feet, extremely long, and lethal once fights get grappling heavy. Nickal’s explosive double-legs translate into big overhand swings, yet his precision and gas tank lag behind. Against Paul Craig, Nickal showed he can be drawn into wild exchanges and forced to shoot sloppy takedowns. De Ridder, a former ONE double-champ with a dozen submission wins, can strike just enough to frustrate Nickal, then catch the desperate shot in a guillotine or triangle. Expected script: de Ridder lands rangy combos, Nickal tires, shoots on a bad entry, tap follows. Recommended wagers: de Ridder money-line plus de Ridder Sub or R3 props.

The Weasle likes Santiago Ponzinibbio by second-round knockout. Ponzi’s snappy jab, inside-low kicks and in-and-out footwork contrast with Rodriguez’s stiff, flat-footed approach. While both are volume punchers, Ponzinibbio carries the heavier hands and faster hand speed. The jab can both set up Ponzi’s own right-straight counters and disrupt Rodriguez’s rhythm, forcing ‘D-Rod’ into a firefight he loses on power. Rodriguez’s durability keeps him upright early, but repeated jabs and calf kicks slow him until a right hand or hook ends the night in Round 2. Betting looks: Ponzinibbio ML, Ponzinibbio KO/TKO, under 2.5.

The Weasle predicted Montel Jackson scores a second-round KO, saying Marcos ‘runs into trouble by standing right in front of people.’ Jackson has logged 11 knockdowns in 10 UFC bouts and now pairs that piston left hand with cleaner foot placement and timing. Marcos is undefeated and varied, but his crash-forward style collides with Jackson’s southpaw counter lanes. The Weasle highlighted Jackson’s back-to-back performance-bonus knockouts and five-fight win streak as proof of trajectory. One well-timed left drops Marcos, with follow-up punches ending it. Suggested bets: Jackson money-line parlay piece, Jackson KO/TKO, sprinkle Round 2 props.

The Weasle said Mason Jones is the betting side because he can 'out-MMA' Jeremy Stephens and eventually force a stoppage. Jones showed cleaner fundamentals in his Cage Warriors war with Michael Figlak and now mixes jabs, spinning kicks and reactive takedowns far better than during his first UFC run. Stephens, meanwhile, is dropping back to lightweight where his takedown defence historically falls under 60 %. The Weasle noted Stephens still wings telegraphed haymakers and relies on calf-kicks, tendencies Jones can read and counter. If the 37-year-old veteran blitzes to make a statement in his return, that recklessness only opens more double-leg and clinch trips for Jones. Jones’ cardio edge and top control should snowball into ground-and-pound elbows for a third-round TKO. Recommended bets: Mason Jones money-line, Jones Round 3 or Jones ITD props.

The Weasle labeled Miesha Tate a layup pick, forecasting a 30-27 decision. He emphasized Yana Santos’ takedown defense is "not that strong"—Holly Holm took her down at will with basic kicks-to-trips and double-legs. Tate still owns the superior wrestling pedigree and top control, and if Holm can dominate the clinch, Tate should have an even easier time. Expect Tate to dump Santos repeatedly, rack up control time, and cruise on the scorecards. Betting angle: Tate money-line and Tate by decision props.

The Weasle expects violence and is siding with Azamat Bekoev to starch Ryan Loder inside one. Loder will be the longer southpaw and hunts submissions, but his all-gas approach leaves defensive holes. Bekoev keeps a low wrestling base, hand-traps on the fence, then uncorks sledgehammer overhands; The Weasle recalled Bekoev once swinging so hard he fell over, underscoring the raw power. He believes Loder’s blitz entries run directly into that overhand, with Bekoev’s takedown defense preventing the grappling escape hatch. Bet Bekoev KO/TKO in Round 1 or consider under 1.5 rounds.

Labeling it a ‘funeral booking,’ The Weasle predicted Zhang Mingyang will starch Anthony Smith in round one of Smith’s retirement fight. Zhang owns a 100-percent finish rate—all first-round stoppages—and wields blistering hand speed plus knockout power that only needs one clean shot. Smith’s jab/low-kick arsenal has slowed with age, and his historically shaky striking defense plus diminished footwork leaves him vulnerable. Unless the veteran immediately drags the bout to the mat, The Weasle sees Zhang landing a clean bomb and punching into a TKO, launching the Chinese prospect into light-heavyweight rankings.

The Weasle said Joselyn Edwards should out-point Chelsea Chandler over three rounds. He highlighted Edwards’ size and power advantage, noting her long front kicks will keep the southpaw Chandler at range and force the brawler to blitz straight into counters. Chandler’s looping left-hand/right-hook combinations leave a center-line opening—exactly where Yan Santos previously dropped her—and Edwards throws the same straight rights that caused that knockdown. Although Chandler could mix in takedowns, the tout believes Edwards’ recent improvement on the mat (rear-naked-choke win last time out) plus Chandler’s tendency to fade make wrestling less of a safety valve. With superior distance weapons, cleaner boxing fundamentals, and enough defensive grappling to survive brief scrambles, Edwards is projected to take a judges’ decision.

The Weasle flagged Giga Chikadze as one of the best underdog prices on the card at +150 against David Onama (-180). He reiterated that Onama rarely pressures and instead accepts a technical kickboxing match—precisely the scenario where Chikadze’s liver kicks, jab-cross counters, and distance management shine. Because Chikadze’s only UFC stumble came when Calvin Kattar marched him backward for five rounds, the analyst doubts Onama will apply that blueprint. Add in the Georgian’s historical tendency to finish with a body-kick/straight combo in Round 2 and The Weasle views the +150 moneyline and Round 2/3 KO props as mispriced relative to the skill gap and stylistic edge.

The Weasle explained that Carlos Prates generally spends the opening three minutes downloading reads before turning up the heat, so he expects the Brazilian to secure a second- or third-round knockout over Ian Garry. Prates owns a 78-inch reach, pairs elite Muay Thai hand-traps with one-shot power, and has shored up takedown defense while drilling with grappling ace Caio Borralho. Because Garry’s preferred linear in-and-out jab-cross leaves him in range for Prates’ own straight right and the Irishman often cedes center-octagon space, the analyst believes Prates’ forward pressure will force extended exchanges where the harder hitter lands clean. With Prates +110 on the moneyline and likely down on volume after Round 1, The Weasle suggested looking for an even juicier live number before backing the KO prop or moneyline, stressing that Prates historically sharpens his defense and accuracy once he settles in.

In the main-event breakdown The Weasle sided with Carlos Prates to upset #7-ranked Ian Garry. He was underwhelmed by Garry’s split outcome versus Shavkat Rakhmonov and the razor-close bout with Michael ‘Venom’ Page, arguing those fights exposed limits to Garry’s wrestling and overall ceiling. Prates owns a 78-inch reach—two inches longer than Garry—and pairs that frame with technically sound Muay Thai, not merely knockout power (though every UFC win is a one-shot finish). If Garry keeps his linear in-and-out kickboxing style, Prates’ length can jab and intercept him with counters. The bout may be billed as puncher vs technician, but The Weasle insists Prates is both and expects him to land the cleaner shots over five rounds or find a mid-fight finish.