Tom Jacobs took 45/1 on Hideki Matsuyama in Bet365’s three-place market, betting that the Japanese star’s trademark course repetition shows up again at TPC Southwind. Matsuyama opened 2025 with a record-setting −35 at The Sentry but has lacked top-10s since; however, his last five starts feature elite irons (SG Approach ranks of 6th, 23rd, 1st, 38th, 5th) and improving tee-to-green numbers while the driver finally cooperated at the Open. The world No. 12 already owns a win here (2024), a playoff loss in 2021, and a 16th in 2023 where he closed 65. Jacobs noted Hideki’s propensity to double-up victories at comfortable venues (e.g., Phoenix) and believes the shorter Southwind layout plus positive Sony Open history fit the pattern. If he starts faster, Jacobs sees a realistic path to a 12th PGA Tour title and a profitable top-3 ticket.

Calling him his "banker," Tom Jacobs recommended Russell Henley at 22/1 each-way (8 places) on bet365, noting that few players not named Scottie Scheffler are hotter. Henley owns four straight top-10 finishes, back-to-back major top-10s, and an earlier victory at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. Statistically he sits 8th in SG Tee-to-Green, 14th Approach, 5th Around-the-Green and 33rd Putting, a career-best combination. TPC Southwind mitigates his lack of distance and accentuates his accuracy—he has finished 6th and 7th here and has both a win and a playoff loss at the corollary Sony Open. Jacobs trusts the complete skill-set and current confidence to land Henley a second win of 2025 and pay off the each-way ticket.

Tom Jacobs labeled Harris English a high-ceiling wager at 55/1 in Bet365’s three-place market, arguing the recent major form and course history mirror trends of past Memphis winners. English has finished 2nd at both the Open and PGA Championships and 12th at the Masters while already winning at Torrey Pines this season, a profile that matches Lucas Glover, Hideki Matsuyama and Will Zalatoris who all arrived here with a top-3 result or a prior win. TPC Southwind is a sweet spot: English has a win and two additional top-10s on the track, albeit before it became a playoff stop. Jacobs sees Ryder Cup motivation and a classic boom-or-bust stat line—one win, two runner-ups and a 4th but nothing between 5th-10th—so he forgoes extra places to juice the outright and podium payout, calling English “live to steal a second trophy of the year.”

Tom Jacobs advised grabbing the each-way 70/1 on Chris Kirk with bet365’s 8-place market, stressing that Kirk’s recent ball-striking uptick and course comfort make him a realistic contender in a 70-man playoff field. Jacobs reminded readers that the 6-time PGA Tour winner owns playoff pedigree (2014 Deutsche Bank), has collected two victories across 2023-24, and arrives off a string of steadily improving finishes: 18th RBC Heritage, T12 U.S. Open, playoff loss Rocket Classic, 14th 3M Open (5th at halfway) and 5th last week at Wyndham to clinch his playoff berth. TPC Southwind’s sub-7,300-yard layout neutralizes Kirk’s lack of distance; he led here after an opening 64 last year, posted 16th in 2023 with closing 67-67-66, and owns a prior 6th when the event was a regular-season stop. With elite recent iron numbers and tee-to-green gains, Jacobs believes Kirk is “fairly priced” and worth the eight-place insurance.

Jacobs rounded out his card with Russell Henley at 66/1 each-way (Bet365, 8 places). Henley arrives on the back of 5th, 10th and 2nd-place finishes, mirroring the momentum Brian Harman carried into his surprise 2023 triumph. Henley was 5th in last year’s Open after contending through 54 holes, and he also owns top-20s at golf’s oldest major in 2021 (20th) and 2019 (37th). Advanced metrics bolster the case: 9th in SG: Tee-to-Green, 15th Approach, 6th Around-the-Green and 5th Total for the season, per Jacobs. Data Golf and OWGR even rate him as the world’s No. 6 player. Lack of length is offset by elite accuracy, a trait Jacobs believes will be rewarded at Portrush. Skipping the Scottish Open for extra prep, Henley looks poised to give the Georgia Bulldogs another Claret Jug bid.

Calling him the card’s "banker," Jacobs backed Jon Rahm at 11/1 each-way (Betfred, 10 places). Rahm has finished 14th or better in all three majors this year, pushing Scottie Scheffler to the wire at the PGA Championship and firing Sunday’s low round at the U.S. Open. His LIV form remains strong as well—2nd at Valderrama on the eve of Portrush. Rahm placed T11 when the Open last visited Northern Ireland in 2019 and has three top-7 Open finishes in his last four starts overall. Jacobs sees no weakness in the Spaniard’s game, figures his elite driving and iron play will handle Portrush’s demands, and notes Rahm’s desire to join Seve Ballesteros as Spain’s only Open champions. All signs, Jacobs says, point to Rahm being firmly in the mix late Sunday.

Jacobs labelled Ryan Fox his “next best” at 66/1 each-way (10 places, Betfred). Fox has already won twice on the PGA Tour this season to go with prior titles at the Dunhill Links, BMW PGA and Canadian Opens, proving he can thrive in elite company. Although the Kiwi has never truly contended in a major, he owns top-26 finishes in all four, with a career-best T16 coming at Portrush in 2019. Jacobs emphasized Fox’s statistical leap—high-end approach play, a powerful yet accurate driver and a streaky putter—plus recent results of 28th (PGA) and T19 (U.S. Open) that both followed victories. Having opened 68 to sit two shots off the lead here six years ago, Jacobs believes the more seasoned, confidence-laden Fox can stay in the hunt for all four rounds and deliver at least a place payout.

Jacobs advised an each-way play on Tyrrell Hatton at 28/1 (William Hill, 7 places). Hatton just logged a career-best major finish (T4) at the U.S. Open and owns three top-10s and four top-11s in the Open since 2016, including T6 at Portrush in 2019. A three-time Alfred Dunhill Links champion and winner of this year’s Dubai Desert Classic, Hatton has proven he can close on coastal layouts. Jacobs argued that the Englishman’s improved all-around game—highlighted by strong approach numbers and recent LIV contention—suggests he is overdue for a serious major run. With confidence boosted by high finishes at the Masters (14th) and U.S. Open, Jacobs expects Hatton to mount a legitimate Claret Jug challenge on a course where he shot four rounds of par or better six years ago.

Tom Jacobs recommended Marco Penge at 100/1 with Betfred (10 places, 1/5 odds) as his favourite long-shot for Portrush. Jacobs pointed to Penge’s runner-up finish at last week’s Scottish Open where he sat inside the top five all four days against an elite field that included Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy and Xander Schauffele. That performance finally provides contemporary links evidence to pair with his strong amateur résumé, erasing concerns created by two previous Open missed cuts. Jacobs also highlighted Penge’s encouraging T29 debut at the PGA Championship—his first start of any kind in the United States—and a steady run of results since (25th, 21st, 11th, 2nd). Noting flashes of early-round contention in Munich (led after Round 1) and Italy, Jacobs believes the Englishman’s confidence and recent ball-striking surge make a surprise top-10 or better finish at Royal Portrush realistic.

Tom Jacobs closed with Sepp Straka at 45/1 e/w (8 places) as his ‘bonus’ pick, citing an ideal statistical profile for Oakmont. Straka ranks 3rd in SG: Approach, 4th in SG: Tee-to-Green, 37th in SG: Off-the-Tee despite modest length, and 17th in SG: Putting. He has already posted two wins in 2025 and arrives with form of 13-12-1-MC-3, the lone missed cut coming the week after out-dueling Shane Lowry for a title. While his U.S. Open record shows two missed cuts in four starts, he’s flashed upside—8th after R1 in 2019 and 16th after R1 last year. Jacobs stressed that Oakmont does not demand bombs, noting the 2016 leaderboard littered with shorter hitters (Jim Furyk T2, Shane Lowry should-have-won, Kevin Na 7th). Straka has already proven major mettle with 7th at the 2023 PGA and T2 at the 2023 Open. Rested after skipping the Canadian Open, he enters refreshed and armed with elite iron play that should thrive in a projected even-par slugfest.

Jacobs labeled Harris English a juicy 80/1 longshot (8 places, 1/5) given his current trajectory: runner-up at the PGA Championship, 12th at The Memorial, 2nd at the Truist Championship, and four top-12s in his last six starts. English owns career-best finishes at both Augusta (12th) and the PGA (2nd) this season while riding 9-for-9 made cuts in U.S. Opens, highlighted by a 3rd in Rahm’s 2021 win. His recent ball-striking at the PGA was among the best of his career and he paired that with a spike-putting week at Muirfield Village, suggesting the full game is peaking. English has positive vibes at Oakmont as well—inside the top-16 through two rounds in 2016 before settling for 37th. His last five U.S. Open results read 4-3-61-8-41, three top-8s, proving he can handle the grind. In a Ryder Cup year and with odds drifting, Jacobs believes English is mispriced relative to his form and tournament comfort.

Jacobs recommended Joaquin Niemann at 30/1 e/w (8 places, 1/5) as the value ‘outsider’. Niemann just logged his first major top-10 with an 8th at the PGA Championship, ranking 3rd in SG: Approach after shaking off a slow start. He has since captured a fourth LIV title of the year at LIV Virginia, finishing birdie-birdie-birdie-birdie from 14-17 against fields that include Bryson DeChambeau and Jon Rahm—proof his winning chops translate. The 26-year-old owns six LIV wins, two PGA Tour victories, and additional wins in Asia and on the DPWT, underscoring a true ‘closing gene.’ In four straight U.S. Opens he’s made every cut with a best of T23 at Winged Foot, where he sat inside the top-12 for three rounds. A big hitter who is trending with the irons, Niemann now has the confidence box ticked and, according to Jacobs, is ready to contend on a layout where length plus approach play separate contenders from pretenders.

Tom Jacobs said Jon Rahm is the safest outright wager at 11/1 e/w (10 places, 1/5) because all the indicators are flashing green. Rahm closed 2024 with a T7 at the Open Championship and has already posted a 14th at Augusta and a Sunday charge at the 2025 PGA Championship in which he was the only player applying real heat to eventual winner Scottie Scheffler. The Spaniard’s U.S. Open dossier is stellar: victory in 2021, plus finishes of 3rd, 10th, and 12th. He was Low Amateur at Oakmont in 2016 (T23) and shot three strong rounds after a shaky Thursday, proving the layout suits his eye. Jacobs also noted Rahm’s every-other-year major pattern (wins in 2021 and 2023) and believes Oakmont sets up similarly to Torrey Pines in rewarding elite tee-to-green prowess. Still ranked among the very best in SG Tee-to-Green, Rahm carries the confidence of a Quail Hollow run and gets a benign forecast that keeps scores near level par—conditions in which he thrives.

Tom Jacobs called 100/1 each-way (Sky Bet 8 places) on Justin Rose a clear value play. Despite withdrawing ill from the Truist Championship, Rose has finished 6th or better in three of the last four majors—including near misses at the 2024 Open and 2025 Masters. His PGA Championship resume since 2020 is even stronger: four top-10s and a lone 13th, layered on top of earlier top-5s in 2012 and 2015. Although he missed the cut at Quail Hollow in 2017, he boasts three career top-5s (two top-3s) at the course in Wells Fargo play. At 44, the window is narrowing, but Jacobs believes Rose has geared his entire schedule toward majors and next year’s Ryder Cup, making last week’s WD more precautionary than alarming. Course comfort, recent major pedigree, and a triple-digit number convince Jacobs the Englishman still has one more Sunday run in him.

Tom Jacobs recommended Shane Lowry at 35/1 each-way (Betfair 12 places), noting a torrent of high-end results against elite fields. Lowry owns two runner-ups in Signature Events this season—Pebble Beach (behind Rory McIlroy) and last week’s Truist Championship, plus a 7th at the Arnold Palmer where he led through 36 holes. He sat inside the top six entering Masters Sunday before sliding to 42nd, a rare blemish during a run that also includes 18th at Harbour Town and solid play with McIlroy at the Zurich. Historically, Lowry has landed inside the top-12 in five of his last seven PGA Championships, showing he travels well to this major even without monster length. Jacobs concedes soft conditions could favor bombers but points to 2017 runner-up Patrick Reed as evidence short hitters can thrive at Quail Hollow. Lowry ranks 3rd in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green this season, so Jacobs is betting the putter cooperates for a Sunday run.

Tom Jacobs said Bryson DeChambeau is a must-back at 11/1 each-way (Paddy Power 10 places) for the 2025 PGA Championship. Jacobs pointed to DeChambeau’s outrageous run in U.S.-based majors: 6th, 2nd, 1st and 5th across the last four, with the runner-up coming in this tournament a year ago. Since a mildly disappointing Sunday at Augusta, Bryson has finished 2nd at LIV Golf Mexico and won LIV Golf Korea, giving him four straight events where he played in the final pairing. Quail Hollow course history backs the case as well—4th and 9th in two subsequent Wells Fargo starts after a learning-curve 33rd in the 2017 PGA. Jacobs emphasized that recent major performance is his top indicator, and DeChambeau checks every box while ranking among the biggest hitters—an edge if the Charlotte layout plays soft. Until the form dips, Jacobs plans to keep riding Bryson in every major.

For a 45/1 outsider Jacobs likes Ryder/Hoey. Ryder ranks 3rd in SG: Putting and is 10‑for‑10 in cuts made this season with two top‑16s, having led after round one in four of his last five starts (opened with a 63 last week). He finished 3rd in this event two years ago with Doc Redman. Hoey supplies the tee‑to‑green pop, sitting 1st in Total Driving and 6th in SG: Tee‑to‑Green while coming off 11th and 12th in his last three starts. Jacobs believes Ryder’s hot putter plus Hoey’s driving can mask their inconsistency and push them into contention, making the 6‑place each‑way ticket attractive at long odds.

Jacobs’ each‑way play is Higgo/Fox at 28/1. Higgo arrives red‑hot after winning the Corales, placing 12th in Puerto Rico, and finishing 3rd on the Korn Ferry Tour, all in the last month. With a fresh two‑year PGA Tour exemption he can swing freely. The duo finished 4th here last year despite Higgo entering off a missed cut, so the upside is obvious. Fox is trending again—T20 at the Players and T15 Houston where he started Sunday in 3rd—after opening his season with a 10th in Dubai. Both are long off the tee and capable of going ultra‑low in four‑ball sessions. Jacobs expects the confidence boost for Higgo and Fox’s recent ball‑striking to translate into an even better finish than 2024.

Tom Jacobs labeled Horschel/Hoge his “Banker” at 25/1 each‑way (6 places, Sky Bet). Horschel is a TPC Louisiana specialist—victory here as an individual, another win once the event switched to pairs, and a runner‑up finish with Sam Burns. Hoge carries the hotter recent form: four straight top‑18 finishes, three top‑5s, and a career‑best 14th at the Masters thanks to elite iron play. Horschel has flashed life too (4th Valspar, 27th RBC Heritage) and is known for clutch putting on these bermuda greens. Jacobs thinks Horschel’s course knowledge plus Hoge’s current ball‑striking ceiling gives them a real chance to claim a third title for Horschel and deliver place money at worst.