David Barnett flagged Viktor Hovland as his favorite high-priced DFS pivot. Hovland ranks 14th in Barnett’s model thanks to scorching iron play—nearly six strokes gained on approach during his Valspar win—and 182-mph ball speed that will attack Quail’s 470-yard par-4s. Barnett stressed that rain-softened turf minimizes Hovland’s weakest link (around-the-green), turning his elite tee-to-green profile loose. The Norwegian finished T-24 at Quail last year and owns a 3rd and runner-up in the last two PGAs. With roster percentages expected to condense around Justin Thomas and Patrick Cantlay at similar salaries, Barnett thinks a low-owned Hovland “could tilt GPPs.”

Pat Perry also grabbed Corey Conners at +180 for a Top-20, arguing the Canadian’s skill set perfectly matches Quail Hollow. Conners sits top-15 on TOUR in proximity from 175-225 yards and has gained strokes putting in three of his last four starts. Course history backs it up: T-11 at this year’s Wells Fargo plus T-8 and T-13 the two previous editions at Quail. Perry expects Conners’ fairway-finding driver to keep him out of the gnarly rye rough Webb Simpson warned about, giving him more full-green looks on a week where wet conditions place a premium on approach precision.

Pat Perry stamped Sepp Straka at +180 for a Top-20 saying “this feels as close to free money as we get at a major.” Straka is fresh off a signature-event win where he gained 7.4 strokes on approach and now owns four TOUR titles in two seasons. Perry highlighted that Straka ranks 8th in proximity from 175-200 yards—the bucket that dominates seven holes at Quail—and his elite accuracy (15th fairways gained) neutralizes average length on soaked fairways. With nine made cuts in his last ten starts and a top-70-and-ties cut line this week, Perry thinks the Austrian’s floor is being mis-priced at nearly 2-to-1.

David Barnett doubled down on Patrick Reed, calling the +210 Top-20 price “almost disrespectful.” He cited Reed’s recent move into a Titleist GT3 driver that has him gaining strokes off-the-tee on LIV, plus inside info from caddie Kessler Karain that Reed’s short game is dialed in. Reed owns multiple Quail Hollow top-10s, including a solo 2nd in 2013, and Barnett believes the thick, overseeded rough + soft greens will reward Reed’s elite scrambling and hot putter. With the bomb-friendly layout now complemented by added length off the tee, Barnett sees a very clear path for Reed to cash the ticket at better than 2-to-1.

David Barnett said he is locking in Patrick Cantlay for a Top-20 finish at +130 because plus money on one of the steadiest tee-to-green players in the field is “a gift.” Barnett reminded listeners that Cantlay has gained at least 1.2 strokes off-the-tee in five of his last six starts and ranks 4th in total driving during that stretch. Quail Hollow’s soft, rain-soaked layout rewards pure carry distance (Cantlay averages 182-mph ball speed) and punishes crooked drives, a combination that fits Cantlay’s accurate power profile and his top-15 long-iron proximity from 175-225 yards. With the PGA Championship cutting to the top 70 and ties, Barnett thinks Cantlay’s high floor plus recent form make the +130 line his favorite cash bet of the week.

In their self-described ‘rape-whistle parking garage’ segment, Barnett and Pat Perry agreed Cameron Young is finally priced correctly at 250-1 outright and +500 for a Top-20. Barnett admitted he has faded Young all year but cannot ignore a number this long for a player who hits 186 mph ball speed and owns legitimate major results: T-3 at the 2022 PGA, runner-up and T-8 at past Opens, plus two top-10s at Augusta—another high-ceiling, long-iron test. Young just posted his best approach week in 11 months, gaining 2.5 strokes at the Philly Cricket Cup (T-7) after switching back to a familiar iron setup. Perry added that Quail’s soft fairways and penal rough amplify Young’s driver advantage while minimizing his sporadic wedge play. With length, prior Quail reps, and a glimmer of iron life showing, the duo are holding noses and taking the upside on both the outright ticket and Top-20 market.

Barnett highlighted Thomas Detry at 200-1 as a ceiling play few are talking about. Detry averages 180 mph ball speed, giving him enough juice to attack Quail’s 470-plus yard par-4s, yet he’s also a streaky putter who can pile up birdies when the flat stick cooperates. The Belgian quietly owns serious major chops: solo 4th at the 2024 PGA, T-14 at the 2024 U.S. Open, and T-13 at the 2023 Open Championship, all while entering those weeks in mediocre form. He also won this year’s Waste Management Phoenix Open in a shoot-out environment, demonstrating closing ability on a big stage. Barnett believes Detry’s volatile but powerful profile is tailor-made for an outright sprinkle and deep DFS tournament exposure.

Barnett floated Dean Burmester as a sneaky 140-1 outright after reviewing his LIV form and distance profile. Burmester has posted a runner-up and a T-4 on LIV this season while averaging 190 mph ball speed—elite carry that neutralizes Quail’s wet fairways. He won last year’s LIV Miami at Doral, another long, water-laced bomber track, and finished T-12 at the 2024 PGA and T-19 at the Open, proving he can hang in majors. Barnett likes that Burmester’s driving dominance pairs with an underrated short game (top-30 in scrambling on LIV) and believes the South African’s volatility is exactly what you want in a triple-digit ticket.

Perry tossed Taylor Pendrith into the outright dart board at 150-1 because the Canadian’s power/putting combo profiles perfectly for a rain-soaked Quail Hollow. Pendrith averaged 186 mph ball speed on Tour last season, easily clearing the saturated rye rough that Webb Simpson called the thickest he’s seen. He already proved course comfort with a T-9 at the 2024 Wells Fargo and owns two additional top-25s on similar long, soft venues (Torrey Pines and TPC Potomac). Pendrith’s streaky flat stick caught fire during those weeks—he gained 4.1 strokes putting in Charlotte last year—and Perry believes Quail’s overseeded greens roll similarly this week. With heavy rough penalizing shorter hitters and books hanging a triple-digit number, Perry labeled Pendrith a live long bomb for betting cards and a DFS leverage play.

Pat Perry argued Corey Conners is still worth a click at 65-1 despite lacking bomber status. Conners sits 7th in Perry’s model largely because of his surgically accurate long irons—he ranks top-15 on Tour in proximity from 175-225 yards, the yardage bucket that dominates seven holes at Quail Hollow. He finished T-11 at this year’s Wells Fargo and owns a T-8 (2023) and T-13 (2024) on the same property, proving he can navigate the course without elite length. While Conners is only average off the tee, Perry noted his fairway-finding allows him to attack soft greens, and the Canadian has gained strokes putting in three of his last four starts. For a player who routinely lives on leaderboards in tough, long setups and is priced deeper than 40-1 fringe names, Perry sees 65-1 as mispriced value.

David Barnett said Patrick Reed is a must-add outright at 90-1 because several inside factors are finally pointing green. Barnett texted Reed’s caddie Kessler Karain, who confirmed the 2018 Masters champ just switched into a Titleist GT3 driver after Macau and has been ‘in contention almost every week’ on LIV since the change. Karain emphasized that Quail Hollow will still demand driver this year despite the wet conditions, and Reed now feels comfortable stepping on the new head. Barnett also highlighted Reed’s elite scrambling and historically hot putter—exactly what Karain said separates him here. Reed owns multiple top-10s at Quail, including a solo 2nd at the 2013 Wells Fargo, and nearly won the Masters this spring, proving the closer gene is intact. At a number that prices him alongside mid-tier ball-strikers with zero major pedigree, Barnett believes the combination of a tuned-up driver, short-game edge and proven win equity makes Reed the best longish ticket on the board.

Pat Perry tagged Sepp Straka as his favorite long-shot outright at 60-1. Straka now owns four PGA TOUR victories, including last week’s signature-event win where he gained 7.4 strokes on approach and dunked a four-iron from a fairway bunker on 18 for the clincher. Perry emphasized that Quail Hollow’s soft fairways neutralize Straka’s merely average length but reward his elite accuracy (15th in fairways gained this season) and laser irons—he sits 8th in proximity from 175-200 yards, the range that dominates Quail’s par-4s. The Austrian also proved major mettle with a Sunday 63 at last year’s Open and went 2-0-1 in the Ryder Cup. With PGA Championships historically producing first-time major winners like Morikawa and Mickelson’s improbably long-shot triumph, Perry believes Straka’s current form makes him a live ticket and a DFS pivot off the chalk bombers.

Barnett called Patrick Cantlay ‘borderline a lock’ at 45-1, citing a ball-striking resurgence that mirrors his 2021 FedEx Cup form. Cantlay has gained over 1.2 strokes off-the-tee in five of his last six starts and ranks 4th in total driving over that span. He owns four career major top-5s, including T-3 finishes at both the PGA (2019) and last year’s U.S. Open, and Barnett believes the modern PGA setups play much closer to U.S. Opens—firm greens, penal rough, premium on long-iron proximity—elements Cantlay handles well. With the Tour’s Policy Board drama no longer siphoning his attention, Barnett sees an elite tee-to-green profile coming in underpriced relative to equally talented peers in the 25-to-30-1 bucket and is adding Cantlay to his outright card before the number shortens.

Barnett chose Justin Thomas over Xander Schauffele for outright tickets, declaring J.T. the ‘smart money’ at the shared 22-1 number. Thomas is trending hard—victory at the RBC Heritage plus runner-up finishes at Valspar, Houston and last week’s limited-field event give him three seconds and a win in his last seven starts. His strokes-gained approach numbers have climbed from 37th to 6th on Tour since early March, and the return of his patented low-launch, high-spin draw fits Quail Hollow’s long iron windows. Barnett also highlighted Thomas’s historically elite par-5 scoring (third on Tour this season) as critical on Quail’s reachable par-5s. By contrast, he noted Schauffele is still shaking off a preseason rib injury—good results on no-cut setups (T-12 Valspar, T-11 last week) hide the fact that his approach play has slipped outside the top 40. With form pointing one way, Barnett is locking in Thomas and fading Xander at identical prices.

David Barnett said bettors should pass on Jon Rahm at Quail Hollow no matter how tempting the number looks. Rahm has logged exactly one competitive round on the property since 2017—he missed the cut at the 2021 Wells Fargo—and Barnett called last month’s T-14 at the Masters a ‘non-competitive’ finish. He thinks the move to LIV has dulled Rahm’s edge, joking that the Spaniard is now losing “strokes-gained family life” because everything around him is too calm. Without the old fire, and with zero recent reps on a course that demands precise carry distance into soft, overseeded rough, Barnett sees no path to Rahm justifying a sub-15-to-1 outright ticket and is leaving him off his card entirely.

David Barnett said that if bettors are forced to choose between Rory McIlroy and Scottie Scheffler at the virtual-co-favorite price of +425 to +500, he is siding with Rory every time. Barnett called McIlroy “the king of Quail Hollow,” noting two Wells Fargo victories, a tournament-record 61, and nine top-10s in 12 career starts on the property. The Northern Irishman’s high-launch driver and towering long-iron flight perfectly match this year’s rain-softened, rye-rough setup, and Barnett believes the confidence from already bagging the Masters and another win earlier in the season removed any lingering mental baggage. Scheffler, by contrast, has skipped Quail for scheduling reasons and has logged zero competitive reps there, which Barnett labeled the lone ‘hole in the Scheffler boat.’ He is comfortable betting Rory down to 7-1 and would only flip to Bryson DeChambeau if the McIlroy number shortens into the 6-1 range.

Pat Perry said Bryson DeChambeau is the one top-tier name he is actually betting right now because the market is still hanging +950 to 11-1 while Rory McIlroy and Scottie Scheffler have been pushed to the mid-4s. Perry argued that number is at least two points too long when you consider Bryson’s major-championship resume—four top-5 finishes in his last six PGA Championships and U.S. Opens combined—and the way Quail Hollow magnifies his biggest weapon. DeChambeau is coming in scorching hot after a LIV win in Korea and a runner-up in Mexico, and he leads that circuit in ball speed and strokes-gained off the tee. Perry added that if Bryson were still teeing it up on the PGA TOUR every week the books would probably open him alongside Rory in the +700 range. Because the price discount exists strictly due to league optics, Perry is making Bryson his first outright ticket and a DFS core play for lineups that start with a bomber.

Although he thinks only five super-stars can realistically win, Matt Every still circled Hideki Matsuyama at sub 50-1 as the lone mid-range ticket worth a sprinkle. Matsuyama’s high-launch long-iron game ranks top-10 in SG:Approach from 175-225 yards—the exact window that appears seven times a round at Quail—and his 118-mph ball speed gives him the carry distance to manage saturated fairways. Every noted Hideki has gained strokes off-the-tee in eight straight starts and owns multiple soft-course major top-5s (Erin Hills, Harding Park, Oak Hill). With the market obsessed with Scheffler, McIlroy and DeChambeau, Every believes Matsuyama offers sneaky win equity and is a live Top-10 bet.

Matt Every prefers betting Xander Schauffele at 22-1 to Justin Thomas at the same price. After following Schauffele’s featured-group coverage last week, Every was struck by how “freaking long” he is—roughly four miles per hour more ball speed than Thomas—an edge he believes grows once the rain removes rollout and forces players to attack Quail’s 470-plus-yard par-4s with mid-irons. Every also trusts Schauffele inside 8 feet, a range Tour Junkies research tagged as pivotal on Quail’s paspalum-overseed greens. Because carrying the ball past the thick rough and converting 5-15-foot par-savers will decide the championship, Every labelled Schauffele the superior outright and DFS play over Thomas.

Pat Perry wants bettors to grab Andrew Novak at 60-1 while they still can, arguing the 29-year-old has "leveled up" and will keep rattling off leaderboards the next month. Novak’s last three individual starts read T-3 Valero, playoff runner-up to Justin Thomas at RBC, and a Zurich team win with Ben Griffin. Stat-wise he is gaining 1.1 strokes per round tee-to-green over his past 12 rounds, sits top-20 in fairways gained, and is 18th in proximity from 125-175 yards—the wedge window Matt Every said decides the event. Perry believes that confidence surge plus a game tailored to upcoming venues (Colonial, Memorial) makes Novak a buy for outrights, top-20s, and even season-long markets before the oddsmakers fully price in the breakout.

Pat Perry labeled Eric Cole a "get-your-first-win" candidate at 110-1. Cole has five top-15s in his last seven starts and finished T-5 last week despite Scotty Scheffler lapping the field. Over that run he ranks 9th in Strokes Gained: Approach and top-20 in Opportunities Gained, two buckets Perry thinks will separate players on Philly Cricket’s soft, tiered greens. Cole already cashed a plus-225 top-10 ticket for listeners at Harbour Town, proving his game travels. With no Scheffler in the field and Friday’s forecast expected to introduce volatility, Perry sees the 110-1 outright, plus-280 top-10, and matchup bets as "easy clicks on a guy whose wedges keep generating looks."

David Barnett argued that 65-1 is too long on Justin Rose, who ranks 10th in BTN’s public model and owns the exact skill set Philadelphia Cricket Club demands. Barnett called the venue "one of those classic, bent-grass, shot-maker courses" and noted Rose just gained 5.6 strokes putting on the same surface at Augusta before hanging around for a T-42 at Harbour Town. With softer greens minimizing rollout, Barnett expects Rose’s accurate driving and precise mid-irons—he is top-25 in proximity from 150-175 yards this season—to produce a steady diet of inside-15-foot birdie chances. Barnett likes Rose in outrights, head-to-head matchups, and as a contrarian DFS core piece because "this fits the 43-year-old’s eye as soon as he steps on property."

Pat Perry said he is "willing to bite" on Keith Mitchell at 60-1 to win the Truist Championship after Mitchell popped 12th in the Bet-The-Number model despite a stacked field. Perry highlighted Mitchell’s elite driver—top-15 in carry distance with the horsepower to fly Philadelphia Cricket Club’s 300-yard fairway bunkers that Barnett scouted earlier. Mitchell is also 11th on tour in Birdies Gained and has posted six rounds of 64 or better since January, evidence that he can keep pace in the projected birdie-fest created by soft, receptive greens. Two straight top-25 finishes have him trending, and Perry is pairing the outright with a plus-400 top-10 ticket because “distance plus scoring ceiling is exactly what this place rewards."

Pat Perry highlighted Maverick McNealy as a sneaky outright at 45-1, noting only a handful of PGA Tour players can match McNealy’s five top-10 finishes this season. Although BTN’s model underrates him because carry-distance and bunker-carry buckets are mediocre, Perry pointed out McNealy’s recent uptick in club-head speed that has boosted his average drive to 302 yards while keeping his elite short-game intact. McNealy ranks 6th in Strokes Gained: Putting on bent/poa mixes over the last 50 rounds and has gained strokes on approach in six straight starts since switching to a shortened 8-iron shaft. Perry thinks that blend of improved distance and trademark flat-stick prowess will play nicely on receptive Bethpage greens and is buying at 45-1 before the market notices the quiet heater.

David Barnett flagged Daniel Berger as his favorite mid-tier flyer at 40-1. Since returning from injury Berger is hitting 70 percent of fairways while averaging 173 mph ball speed, numbers Barnett said let him ignore the carry-distance flag in BTN’s bunker-carry bucket because “he’ll just split the short grass.” Berger has gained strokes both on approach and around the green in four straight events and held the 36-hole lead in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green at Houston. The putter is volatile, but Barnett trusts Berger’s POA history and believes soft, receptive greens reduce three-putt risk. With two Major-quality victories already on his resume (Pebble and Colonial), Barnett sees Berger’s current form mirroring those runs and is betting the outright plus a first-round-leader ticket.

David Barnett could not resist Sepp Straka at 40-1, emphasizing that the Austrian ranks No. 2 in the Bet-The-Number model. Barnett reminded listeners Straka has two wins since Patrick Cantlay or Corey Conners last hoisted a trophy, and he just finished T-13 at RBC Heritage after a hype-blown Masters miss. Straka profiles perfectly for Philly Cricket: plenty of carry distance, plus-7.4 strokes gained approach over his last three events, and top-15 birdie-or-better rate on soft greens since 2023. Barnett likes that Friday’s ugly weather forecast could create volatility — an environment where Straka’s knack for streaky scoring often thrives. He is betting the outright and sprinkling a top-10 because “40-1 on the model’s No. 2 makes zero sense.”

Pat Perry argued Corey Conners is an outright steal at 30-1. Conners grades 13th in the BTN model and, according to Perry, “literally fits everything Matt Every just said we need” — natural distance-control wedges, a high fairway percentage, and enough pop to carry the 300-yard bunker lines Philadelphia Cricket Club presents. Over his last 24 rounds Conners ranks 4th on tour in proximity from 125-175 yards, the exact gap-wedge window Every circled, and sits top-10 in Strokes Gained: Approach during that span. Perry concedes the Canadian’s putter is the wild card but pointed out Conners gained strokes on the greens in three of his last four starts. With the market still obsessed with bomb-and-gouge names, Perry sees Conners as a live winner and back-door each-way at a number that “feels really good.”

Pat Perry opened his outright card with Ludvig Aberg at 16-1. Perry noted Aberg sits 15th in the Bet-The-Number model even after recent iron hiccups, which he chalked up to a brief lull rather than a trend. On a course none of the field has seen, Perry values Aberg’s track record of winning on blind venues across three tours the past two seasons and called the Swede a “quick study with a cheat-code driver.” With soft greens expected, Perry trusts Aberg’s high-launch draw to negate back-spin issues Matt Every warned about earlier, giving him birdie looks inside 15 feet all week. He views 16-1 as a discount versus the pre-podcast 14-1 opener and is comfortable using Aberg in outrights and DFS captain slots.

When forced to dip 75-1 or longer, David Barnett landed on Stephan Jaeger at 90-1, calling him “crafty” and noting that Jaeger keeps cashing checks despite lacking elite pop off the tee. Barnett argued that Jaeger’s top-15 ranking in strokes-gained approach over the last eight events—and specifically his deft knock-down wedges—offset the bomber bias, especially with Philly Cricket’s greens soft enough to receive spin-laden shots. Barnett likes pairing Jaeger’s steady tee-to-green numbers with the projected windy, storm-disrupted Friday forecast he mentioned earlier, believing volatility could bring a grinder like Jaeger into outright and top-20 contention while sportsbooks remain focused on raw distance.

Pat Perry grabbed Collin Morikawa in the draft specifically because Morikawa shows up this week with a fresh looper on the bag. Perry believes the switch can jump-start Morikawa’s trademark iron play—vital on a rain-softened course where spin management from 145-160 yards decides birdie chances, as Matt Every warned earlier. Morikawa ranks 2nd in proximity from that range over the last 24 rounds, and Perry expects a sharper game plan and club selection with the new caddie to mitigate the course’s steep back-to-front slopes. At 22-1 in the outright market and sub-10% early DFS ownership projections, Perry sees him as a leverage play with win equity that belies recent middling finishes.

Matt Every backed Ludvig Aberg at 20-1 in the signature-event draft, arguing that a brand-new tour stop erases most course-history edges and plays right into Aberg’s wheelhouse. Every pointed out that Aberg has spent the last two seasons winning on unfamiliar tracks all over the world, calling him "a quick study with a cheat-code driver." While Aberg’s approach numbers have been mediocre the past month, Every’s on-site intel from Pablo Creek indicates the Swede spent all last week grinding wedge distance control—exactly the 125-175 yard window Barnett highlighted earlier. With soft greens expected, Every thinks Aberg’s towering draw can attack tucked pins without fear of spin-back, projecting a high-birdie script that makes him worth an outright or first-round-leader stab.

David Barnett said Justin Thomas is the first name he would click on an outright card for the Truist Championship. Barnett connected several dots: Philadelphia Cricket’s 7,400-yard layout demands 300-plus carry to fly the 118 fairway bunkers (intel he shared earlier), and weekend rain has left receptive, run-out-free greens. JT’s elite combo of top-5 distance off the tee and a dialed-in wedge tree fits that profile perfectly. Barnett added that Thomas ‘got the monkey off his back’ with a recent win, finally converting strong strokes-gained numbers into a trophy, so confidence is trending up as the PGA looms. In Barnett’s eyes the course sets up as "bomber, wedge, birdie fest," and Thomas checks every box, making anything longer than 18-1 an autoplay in both outright and DFS captain builds.

Barnett called 75-1 on Michael Thorbjornsen ‘silly’ given the amateur star’s recent runner-up at Corrales (where he had a 10-footer to force a playoff) and T4 at the Zurich team event. Thorbjornsen brings above-average length—perfect for the soft Zoysia fairways—and owns one of the cleaner, more repeatable swings in the field. Barnett emphasized the value of getting a player who is already comfortable contending and who checks every distance-weighted approach bucket in his model. He thinks a birdie-fest like Craig Ranch is the exact venue where Thorbjornsen’s ceiling can finally show up for four straight days.

Barnett tapped Joseph Bramlett as his long-shot top-20 ticket at +450. The Stanford bomber owns a strong Craig Ranch history (T7 in 2021, T19 in 2023) and absolutely has to capitalize on limited exemptions—this is only his sixth start of 2025. Bramlett finished third in Puerto Rico earlier in the year and gains over a stroke off the tee in soft conditions. Barnett expects him to feast on the par-5s, noting that victory this week is unlikely but a floor of four steady rounds should get him inside the top-20 cut line and keep his status intact.

Pat Perry’s bomb for the six-pack card is Nate Lashley to finish top 20 at +550. Lashley has quietly cashed two of his last three visits to Craig Ranch (T17 in 2022, T23 in 2023) and rolls in on decent form—T12 at the Texas Open and T27 in Houston. Perry loves the way Lashley sets up birdie looks with wedges on easy, no-wind tracks and notes the plus-price more than accounts for his missed-cut downside. In a watered-down field, he thinks Lashley’s consistent wedge play can squeak another sneaky payday.

Pointing to 110-1 odds, Barnett argued Sami Valimaki should be on every long-shot card. The Finn nearly stole the Mexico Open last year on another wide-open resort layout and finished T4 in Houston earlier this season. Over his last eight tracked rounds Valimaki is gaining more than a stroke per round with the irons and putting better than field average, a combo few in this price tier can claim. While his ball speed is merely average, Barnett said perfect Craig Ranch lies mute that deficiency and let pure iron players keep pace. Given multiple recent Sunday leaderboards, he sees real spike-week potential.

Barnett flagged Ryo Hisatsune at 75-1 as the rare non-bomber he is still willing to back. The Japanese phenom has posted top-20s at Valspar, Valero and Heritage and flashed on Sunday in team play with Takumi Kanaya. While Hisatsune sits below field average in ball speed, his bentgrass putter can catch absolute fire and he already owns a DP World Tour victory. In a volatile event where triple-digit winners have popped before, Barnett likes the idea of getting a proven closer with a red-hot flat stick at this number, even if he concedes the profile runs counter to his usual ‘bomb-and-gouge’ lean.

Barnett went back to the Ryan Gerard well at 65-1, noting the rookie has quietly been in the mix a bunch: 9th in Houston, solo 2nd at Valero and T12 at the Zurich last week. Gerard’s strokes-gained ball-striking numbers popped again in Mexico, and Barnett reminded listeners the UNC product can move it plenty far off the tee—an important box on a soft, windless Craig Ranch setup projected to play as a bomber’s paradise. With confidence up after seeing close friend Ben Griffin win Zurich, Barnett believes Gerard has enough form and length to post the 24-under type number likely required.

David Barnett talked Pat into taking a flyer on Mackenzie Hughes at TPC Craig Ranch, arguing the Canadian is finally pairing his elite short-game with real approach play. Hughes has now gained strokes with the irons in eight straight competitive rounds, something he has done only twice since 2019. Barnett highlighted the 2.4 strokes gained on approach he posted at the RBC Heritage against a top-end field as proof the improvement is real. Bet The Number’s ball-speed feed also shows Hughes sitting at 175 mph—middle of the pack instead of bottom third—suggesting a touch more pop off the tee than we are used to. Combine that with his usual magic around the greens and a reliably hot putter on bentgrass, and Barnett thinks Hughes is live well into triple-digit outright prices this week.

Matt Every touted Jhonattan Vegas as a live triple-digit longshot, saying he wants a player who can ‘bully’ Craig Ranch. Every recalled a casual 6-under round he watched Vegas post here that looked like a 2-over stroll, evidence of how easily the Venezuelan can dissect this track with raw length. With the layout offering generous landing areas and the winning score likely pushing 24-under, Every believes Vegas’s tee-to-green firepower gives him a realistic chance to spike a low round streak and contend despite negligible recent form.

Pat Perry pegged Jake Knapp as his favorite mid-tier outright at 55-1 (60-1 on FanDuel). Knapp finished 8th at Craig Ranch last season and owns elite driving distance, a trait Perry believes is critical with soft fairways and minimal wind expected. The rookie just carried Frankie Sappon to contention at the Zurich, underscoring current form and his ability to pour in birdies. On a course where players can ‘just send it off the tee,’ Knapp’s high-end scoring ceiling makes him a betting and DFS smash, and Perry prefers him even over shorter names like Sungjae Im and Si Woo Kim.

Pat Perry advised passing on Scottie Scheffler at a skinny +280 outright price. Perry noted that Craig Ranch has produced random winners like K.H. Lee twice, making it a volatile stop even for the world No. 1. Scheffler’s putter remains merely neutral here—he gained less than one stroke on the greens while finishing T5 last year—and a projected putting contest lowers his edge. Perry expects Scheffler to notch another routine top-10, but argued the combination of short odds, historically low winning-score variance, and a field full of bomb-and-gouge specialists makes betting him to win a poor risk-reward proposition.

David Barnett said Stephan Jaeger is the first name he stamped onto his outright card at 45-1. Jaeger has finished T20 and T11 in two visits to TPC Craig Ranch and comes in with irons firing, gaining on approach in three straight starts. Barnett is unconcerned about Jaeger’s occasional wayward driver because the wide Zoysia corridors and light rye rough let bombers swing freely. With Craig Ranch projected to play soft and windless, Barnett expects another birdie fest where Jaeger’s length and proven closing ability on the Korn Ferry Tour translate to a legitimate win shot and an easy DFS core piece.