Barnett circled Greyson Sigg at +600 for a top-20. Sigg posted a T4 here last year and owns multiple top-30s on the layout. Sitting outside the FedEx Fall top-100 cutoff, he needs a big week to keep full status, giving Barnett confidence the Georgia product will summon his best on a track he clearly enjoys.

Perry swapped off Bhatia and settled on Harris English at even money for a top-20. English brings back-to-back top-15 finishes from stronger fields into a significantly weaker Napa lineup. Perry added that fellow Sea Island pro Patton Kizzire’s Poa victory here last year proved Bermuda specialists can thrive at Silverado, bolstering his confidence in English’s short-game-driven profile.

Barnett called Akshay Bhatia his "basic" lock top-20 at +130 simply because sportsbooks are still giving plus money on a player he trusts. While he didn’t dive into stats, Barnett’s tone suggested confidence in Bhatia’s all-around form after a breakthrough summer that included a win and multiple high finishes on coastal tracks similar to Silverado.

Despite admitting personal bias against him, Perry punched a rage-click on Zac Blair +550 for a top-20. Blair has finished T4, T12 and T13 in three of his past five Silverado starts, evidence the short, tree-lined track suits his accurate, wedge-heavy game. Perry thinks those results justify the plus money in an otherwise volatile market.

Barnett called David Lipsky a live longshot at 200-1. Lipsky closed the summer hot with T-3 finishes at both the John Deere Classic and 3M Open, then backed that up with a runner-up at Silverado last season. Barnett thinks that combination of recent form and proven Napa success gives Lipsky legitimate win equity far beyond the triple-digit price.

David Barnett labeled Emiliano Grillo the best bet among the mid-tier options and is taking him outright at 90-1. Barnett reminded listeners that Grillo’s first Tour win came on this very track when the event was the Frys.com Open, giving him real closing equity at Silverado. With Ryder Cup stars soaking up the shortest odds, Barnett prefers backing a proven course winner who won’t be intimidated if he finds himself in Sunday’s final groups.

Pat Perry said Mark Hubbard is worth an outright flutter at 75-1 for the Procore Championship. Hubbard ranks 17th in Perry’s modeling, is coming off a T-3 last week, and owns three top-25 finishes in five career trips to Silverado despite two missed cuts. Perry argued the combination of recent ball-striking form and proven course comfort makes Napa the perfect spot for the veteran to grab his first PGA Tour victory at a juicy number.

Barnett called the 16-1 number on Justin Thomas "insane" and refuses to back it. He believes JT’s recent ball-striking and confidence lag badly behind Russell Henley, who shares the same price yet grades out far better in his model. In Barnett’s view, bettors paying 16-1 for Thomas are buying name value rather than win equity.

Perry sees value in Davis Thompson at 45-1. Thompson finished top-10 here in 2022 and top-30 in 2023 and is fresh off an 11th at the Wyndham. Perry likes the fit: Thompson can lean on length off the tee, owns a spike-putting profile, and has already shown he can contend on this track against weaker fields.

Barnett has "true conviction" in Akshay Bhatia at 35-1 thanks to his comfort on West-coast poa, strong around-the-green play, and sharp irons. The layout’s generous fairways offset Bhatia’s occasionally loose driving, and he already owns one strong finish here amidst two missed cuts, underscoring both volatility and upside. Barnett slots him behind only Scheffler and Henley on his outright card.

Perry called Cam Young "poised to win" at 22-1, citing a torrid run of 1st, 5th, 11th and 4th in his last four starts. With few top-tier names historically teeing it up at the ProCore, Perry thinks Young’s driving distance and long-iron prowess give him a ceiling edge over the mid-tier pack and put him in the same win tier as Cantlay.

Pat Perry likes Patrick Cantlay at 18-1, noting that just weeks ago his Ryder Cup spot was in doubt, but back-to-back strong finishes—2nd at the Tour Championship and a top-10 at the FedEx St. Jude—show his ball-striking metrics trending up across the board. Although Cantlay has not won since the 2022 BMW Championship, Perry believes his rounded game and current momentum make him under-priced in a field light on elite talent.

Barnett tagged Russell Henley as the only sub-20-1 player worth betting besides Scheffler. On Bet the Number’s model covering the last 30 rounds, Henley ranks second. His laser accuracy leaves him with so few 100-150-yard rough shots that the database records "NA" in that bucket, proof he rarely misses fairways. Combine that with elite short-iron and around-the-green play and Barnett sees Henley as a live winner at 16-1—especially compared to Justin Thomas at the same price.

Pat Perry fired a 60-to-1 parlay: Deebo Samuel anytime TD (+165) in the Commanders-Packers game, Cowboys spread (-108) vs the Giants, a ProCore hole-in-one prop (+125), Patrick Cantlay top-20 (-140), and Scottie Scheffler outright (+210). Perry likes Deebo’s red-zone usage, trusts Dallas against "a lifeless" Giants offense, believes the course regularly yields aces, notes Cantlay’s recent 2nd at the Tour Championship and top-10 at St. Jude, and backs Scheffler’s clear class edge.

Barnett’s "get real crazy" play is Scottie Scheffler outright at +210 parlayed with Europe to win the Ryder Cup at +150, returning +675. He argued Scheffler should be even shorter than +210 given how little nuance the course demands, and he called Europe plus money "insane" considering the strength of its lineup and home-course advantage.

Perry labeled Harry Hall his deepest top-10 dart at +185. Hall ranks eighth in this week’s model and "as good as he putts" could vault up the board while trying to impress European Ryder Cup selectors who, per Hall, view him as outside the usual boys’ club.

Perry floated Maverick ("Mav") at +150 as a top-10 sleeper. McNealy is "playing really well" even though he lacks recent East Lake reps, and Perry thinks that current form alone can get him on the first page of the leaderboard.

Pat Perry said Sam Burns showed enough last week to warrant a +125 top-10 ticket even though he doubts a win is in play. Burns’ recent form plus the fact that he needs a big points move for Ryder Cup consideration create what Perry views as solid betting value.

Barnett is willing to back Cam Young at +140 for a top-10 finish and considers the 30-to-1 outright a fringe sprinkle. Young’s length fits East Lake’s par-5s, and Barnett highlighted that Young still needs Ryder Cup points, giving him rare extra motivation compared to many in the field.

Barnett pegged Ludvig Aberg at 16-to-1 as his other outright dart. After a quiet mid-season Aberg is "starting to show back up again," just in time for the Ryder Cup, and Barnett believes that surge in form gives him the second-best shot of catching Scheffler at East Lake.

Barnett called Viktor Hovland one of only two players with a real chance to chase down Scheffler and likes the 28-to-1 outright as well as the +130 top-10. His case: Hovland has already won at East Lake, and the iron play "has looked unbelievably good lately—kind of back to vintage Victor." Barnett thinks that combination of course history and resurgent approach play makes Hovland the best value on the board behind the favorite.

David Barnett said Scottie Scheffler is the only logical outright this week. Barnett called Scheffler "unstoppable," noting the Sunday chip-in at BMW, the fact that he already banked $15 million for leading the FedEx Cup through Wyndham and BMW, and that he very nearly won St. Jude with a replacement caddie. He added that East Lake is only about 7,500 yards and sits on familiar Bermuda greens—both traits that accent Scheffler’s strengths better than longer venues such as Caves Valley. Because Barnett sees no course where Scheffler can’t win and believes the staggered format actually helps him, his betting card starts and largely ends with Scheffler outright, possibly paired with a single top-10 prop to juice odds.

David Barnett said the Tour Championship betting card basically begins and ends with Scottie Scheffler at +150. Barnett pointed out that Scheffler has already banked $23.9 million in 18 starts this season, winning five times and finishing inside the top-10 in 15 of those events. He reminded listeners that Scheffler gained 10.5 strokes on the field at East Lake last year en route to the title and now faces only 29 opponents with no starting-stroke cushion required. Oddsmakers list Scheffler at a prohibitive –1250 just to finish top-10, underscoring how dominant his baseline is. In Barnett’s view, the combination of elite recent form, proven course history and the small, no-cut field justifies eating the short price and locking in the outright even at +150.

Pat Perry urged caution on Russell Henley’s Ryder Cup outlook and is looking to fade him in appearance and points props. Henley currently ranks fourth in U.S. qualifying but sits outside the top-100 in driving distance. Perry worries that Bethpage’s 7,500-plus yards and forced carries will highlight that deficiency—Henley loses roughly 0.3 strokes per round with long-iron approach shots. Although Henley posted a top-5 at Torrey Pines, Perry expects U.S. coaches to protect him in four-ball sessions, limiting his playing time. Perry plans to short Henley in ‘to score most U.S. points’ markets and will look for head-to-head fades against longer hitters such as Bryson DeChambeau and Keegan Bradley once books post Ryder Cup matchups.

David Barnett insisted Patrick Cantlay has to be on the U.S. side despite lukewarm 2025 form. Barnett cited Cantlay’s ‘Hatgate’ showdown with Rory McIlroy in Rome, where Cantlay birdied three of his last four holes and gained 2.1 strokes putting on Sunday, as proof he thrives when the atmosphere turns hostile. He believes Cantlay’s precise tee-to-green game is tailor-made for Bethpage’s tight fairways and penal rough and expects him to log at least four sessions. Cantlay has drifted to 20-1 in most-U.S.-points markets; Barnett views that as a buy window and is betting Cantlay to eclipse 2.5 points in any head-to-head captain’s-pick props that open this summer.

Matt Every said Cameron Young absolutely belongs on the 2025 U.S. Ryder Cup roster because Bethpage Black lets him turn the driver loose on almost every hole. Every pointed out that Young has gained strokes off-the-tee in 11 of his last 12 starts and sits top-5 on the PGA Tour in driving distance. He argued Bethpage’s heavy rough punishes shorter, accuracy-first players far more than long hitters who can gouge wedges out—something Young proved he could do while contending at Brookline and St Andrews. Every expects Young to be a four-ball weapon, believes his outright odds will shrink once the captain’s picks are announced, and advised locking in any Young exposure in Ryder Cup point or top-U.S. scorer markets now, before the number moves.

Perry closed the card with Akshay Bhatia at 55-1, emphasizing his 15th-place rank in the Bet-The-Number model and a No. 3 position in approaches from 150-220 yards— the exact bucket that dominates Wilmington’s par-4s. Bhatia has posted positive SG: Approach in seven of his last eight events and gained 1.8 strokes putting at the 3M, hinting the flat stick is close to cooperating. Perry admitted the putter remains volatile (158th season-to-date) but argued the upside outweighs the risk in a no-cut setting where ball-striking wins out. If the putter even lands at field average, Perry believes Bhatia’s ceiling is high enough to pay off a mid-tier outright number.

Barnett said Hideki Matsuyama’s outright price sliding from 50-1 to 40-1 still leaves meat on the bone. He called the Japanese star’s recent approach numbers ‘vintage Hideki’— gaining 5+ strokes with the irons at both the Scottish and FedEx St. Jude— while noting the short game has quietly gained strokes in six of seven starts. The only leak is driver accuracy, but Barnett is willing to live with a few missed fairways at Wilmington where rough is modest and Hideki’s historically elite scrambling (7th on TOUR) can bail him out. Barnett concluded Matsuyama’s long-term win rate (8 PGA victories) is far higher than most names in the 40-1 range, making him a must-add to the outright card.

Barnett jumped on Chris Gotterup even after the number shortened from 45-1 to 35-1, citing a perfect Bethpage prototype for the Rutgers product: monster driver (317-yard carry average), aggressive scoring mentality, and Northeast familiarity. Although Gotterup lost nearly four strokes on approach over the first two rounds at TPC Southwind, Barnett highlighted his bounce-back Sunday where he gained 2.7 strokes ball-striking, framing it as evidence the swing tweak clicked. With Ryder Cup chatter growing louder— Gotterup sits well outside the points but could make noise with a playoff win— Barnett thinks the upside outweighs the recent volatility and likes attaching himself to the ceiling price while the market frets about one bad week.

Matt Every noted that Kitayama opened 55-1 Monday but was bet down to 45-1 by show time and said he would still fire. Every believes the market hasn’t fully priced Kitayama’s ball-striking surge— he has gained 7.4 strokes tee-to-green per tournament since June— or the narrative juice of needing a late-season win to crack the Ryder Cup team. The Bet-The-Number model graded him No. 2 overall this week, and Every emphasized Kitayama’s elite long-iron play (Top-3 in approaches 175-225 yards season-to-date) matches the bulk of Wilmington’s par-4 approach distances. With confidence soaring after back-to-back top-12 finishes, Every is happy to ride the steam at 45-1.

Barnett flagged Kurt Kitayama at +300 for a top-10 as his favourite placement bet. With only 49 players teeing it up, he framed 3-1 as ‘better than most NFL money-line dogs’ and argued Kitayama’s recent form (T2, T11, T9 last three starts) plus 2nd-place ranking in the Bet-The-Number model makes the price a steal. Kitayama has gained at least 1.2 strokes on approach in five consecutive events and is 4th in total driving carry over the same span— two skills Barnett thinks are mandatory at Wilmington. He added the Ryder Cup carrot (Kitayama needs a win or high finish to impress captains) as an intangible that should keep the foot on the gas through Sunday.

Pat Perry told listeners he had no issue swallowing the short +750 on Rory McIlroy. Perry argued the course sets up perfectly: generous fairways accentuate McIlroy’s 1st-ranked driving distance, while bent/poa mix greens mirror venues where Rory has gained 0.7 strokes putting per round over the past two seasons. He stressed that, unlike some elites merely tuning up for East Lake, McIlroy’s statistical profile (top-5 in SG: Tee-to-Green in five straight starts) screams ‘peak form.’ Given his track record of erupting during playoff events (three wins and eight top-5s in his last 12 FedEx Cup starts) Perry believes Rory’s true win probability is closer to 15%, making +750 a playable number even for single-bullet bettors.

Barnett followed Cameron Young with Ben Griffin at 35-1, noting that Griffin graded 5th in the Bet-The-Number model and shockingly ranked near the top of the field in driving-carry distance— a metric usually dominated by bombers. Barnett admitted he underestimated Griffin’s power but pointed out that the lefty sits 3rd in the field in strokes-gained approach over the last eight rounds and has gained with the putter in six straight events. Barnett called Griffin “freaking dialed right now” and said a win doesn’t feel crazy on a course that rewards carry distance and hot irons, making 35-1 a number he wanted to grab before it shortens.

David Barnett said Cameron Young was the first name that stopped him when scrolling the odds board and immediately clicked the 30-1 outright. Barnett argued the Wilmington routing rewards heavy drivers who can carry bunkers, a skill Young flashed when he ranked 6th in total driving carry in the Bet-The-Number database. He added that Young sits 14th in the Ryder Cup standings, giving him added motivation to keep his foot on the gas, and pointed to Young’s last five starts (four top-25s with +1.4 strokes-gained tee-to-green per round) as proof the ball-striking has rounded back into form. With no cut in a 49-man field and the “monkey off his back” after last season’s playoff win, Barnett believes Young’s win equity is meaningfully higher than his 30-1 price implies.

Barnett labeled Xander Schauffele an avoid for both betting cards and DFS builds, saying the American "is not fully himself" at the moment. While Caves Valley is expected to reward bombers and hot putters, Barnett does not believe Schauffele’s current ball-striking consistency is sharp enough to keep pace with Scheffler or the other heavy hitters in what should again be a birdie-fest (projected winning score 18-under or better). Given Xander’s premium price and recent underwhelming finishes, Barnett prefers to deploy salary-cap or outright units elsewhere.

David Barnett advised passing on Rory McIlroy in outright and DFS builds for the BMW. Barnett’s read is that McIlroy is treating Caves Valley primarily as a warm-up for next week’s Tour Championship at East Lake, so he doubts Rory will press the gas pedal the way Scheffler will. Although the setup should suit McIlroy’s length, Barnett questioned whether the competitive edge will be there in a no-cut event that offers limited FedExCup upside for a player already safely through. The combination of presumed lower motivation and a likely high ownership tag makes Rory a fade in Barnett’s view.

Matt Every said he is riding with Scottie Scheffler to win the BMW Championship even though there is uncertainty around regular caddie Ted Scott. Every acknowledged the on-course communication looked off when Scheffler’s stand-in looper was on the bag last Sunday, yet reminded listeners that Scheffler fired a 62 during the third round of the PGA Championship with that same fill-in. Caves Valley is a 7,600-yard par-70 that Every expects to play soft enough to encourage low scores, which amplifies Scheffler’s tee-to-green dominance and long-iron edge. With no cut in a 49-man field and $3.6 million to first, Every believes the combination of Scheffler’s bomber profile and four-round scoring safety makes him worth the short number in betting markets and a lock-button play in DFS contests.

Pat Perry said bettors should stop backing Tommy Fleetwood in outright markets until he finally proves he can finish a tournament. Perry pointed out that Fleetwood now leads the PGA Tour in top-10 finishes without a win—a stat ESPN flashed on Sunday—and noted Graham DeLaet’s on-air comment that every near-miss only worsens the mental hurdle. Watching the first FedEx Cup playoff, Perry saw Fleetwood lose control off the tee early, tighten up on approach shots, and fail to birdie the soft par-5 16th despite a perfect fairway lie, all classic signs of a player feeling the pressure. Perry compared Fleetwood’s body language coming down the stretch to a golfer sweating a Friday cut, concluding you can still cash placement tickets (top-10/20) on Fleetwood’s consistent ball-striking but outright wagers are lighting money on fire until he shows he can handle Sunday leads.

Perry’s longest top-10 ticket is Emiliano Grillo at +650. He’s trusting David Barnett’s model, which ranks Grillo No. 2 this week, and pointed out the Argentine has been “playing pretty well,” enough to justify the chunky payout in a small field.

Barnett likes Aaron Rai at +240 for a top-10, explaining that if Rai doesn’t win he still expects a big week because the Englishman sits 14th on the European Ryder-Cup standings and is hovering near the critical top-50 FedEx-Cup cutoff. That extra incentive plus solid recent form make the plus-money finish attractive.

Barnett called Xander Schauffele at +135 for a top-10 finish "a lock," pointing out the hosts already like him outright. In a 69-man field, Barnett believes any plus-money on Xander’s floor-high profile is a must bet.

Perry said Lucas Glover at 80-to-1 "could do some damage" despite a disappointing week at the Wyndham. Glover’s previous win at Southwind and dependable tee-to-green profile give Perry confidence that the veteran has the experience to seal another big playoff victory if he finds the weekend lead.

Barnett said Chris Kirk "gets me the most at 100-to-1," separating him from the other long shots. The host sees Kirk’s all-around game as suited to Southwind and trusts him to "close the door" if he gets in contention, making the triple-digit number too tempting to pass up.

Perry highlighted J.T. Poston at 65-to-1, stressing that Poston is already a multiple PGA-Tour winner who "does kind of just come out of nowhere." Poston’s irons popped last week at the Wyndham, and he owns a "decent record" at Southwind thanks to a tidy short game—making him dangerous if the approach play stays hot.

Barnett floated Denny McCarthy as a long-shot outright, noting McCarthy finished 11th last week, carries "decent form," and is one of the tour’s best putters. Because TPC Southwind features "pure Bermuda" greens—his favorite surface—Barnett believes the setup could line up for McCarthy’s first PGA-Tour victory.

Pat Perry argued that Shane Lowry is "pretty good value" at 50-to-1 because he sits 7th in the Bet-The-Number model. Perry acknowledged the familiar concern—Lowry’s putting—but pointed out every other statistical category stacks up well, making the Irishman a worthwhile outright stab in a 69-man playoff field.

Barnett said he prefers Harris English over most others in the mid-30s outright band, calling it "tough to ignore how well he's playing right now." With English showing sustained form heading into the playoffs, Barnett feels bettors can safely click his name in the same range as Berger while still getting ceiling win equity.

Barnett pushed Hideki Matsuyama at 40-to-1, noting the Japanese star is the defending champion and that his iron play "is back" after flashing vintage form at The Open. In a strong but limited-field playoff event where elite approach play usually wins, Barnett considers those odds too long for a player with recent ball-striking momentum and proven success on the track.