Perry labeled Harry Hall his deepest top-10 dart at +185. Hall ranks eighth in this week’s model and "as good as he putts" could vault up the board while trying to impress European Ryder Cup selectors who, per Hall, view him as outside the usual boys’ club.

Perry floated Maverick ("Mav") at +150 as a top-10 sleeper. McNealy is "playing really well" even though he lacks recent East Lake reps, and Perry thinks that current form alone can get him on the first page of the leaderboard.

Pat Perry said Sam Burns showed enough last week to warrant a +125 top-10 ticket even though he doubts a win is in play. Burns’ recent form plus the fact that he needs a big points move for Ryder Cup consideration create what Perry views as solid betting value.

Barnett is willing to back Cam Young at +140 for a top-10 finish and considers the 30-to-1 outright a fringe sprinkle. Young’s length fits East Lake’s par-5s, and Barnett highlighted that Young still needs Ryder Cup points, giving him rare extra motivation compared to many in the field.

Barnett pegged Ludvig Aberg at 16-to-1 as his other outright dart. After a quiet mid-season Aberg is "starting to show back up again," just in time for the Ryder Cup, and Barnett believes that surge in form gives him the second-best shot of catching Scheffler at East Lake.

Barnett called Viktor Hovland one of only two players with a real chance to chase down Scheffler and likes the 28-to-1 outright as well as the +130 top-10. His case: Hovland has already won at East Lake, and the iron play "has looked unbelievably good lately—kind of back to vintage Victor." Barnett thinks that combination of course history and resurgent approach play makes Hovland the best value on the board behind the favorite.

David Barnett said Scottie Scheffler is the only logical outright this week. Barnett called Scheffler "unstoppable," noting the Sunday chip-in at BMW, the fact that he already banked $15 million for leading the FedEx Cup through Wyndham and BMW, and that he very nearly won St. Jude with a replacement caddie. He added that East Lake is only about 7,500 yards and sits on familiar Bermuda greens—both traits that accent Scheffler’s strengths better than longer venues such as Caves Valley. Because Barnett sees no course where Scheffler can’t win and believes the staggered format actually helps him, his betting card starts and largely ends with Scheffler outright, possibly paired with a single top-10 prop to juice odds.

David Barnett said the Tour Championship betting card basically begins and ends with Scottie Scheffler at +150. Barnett pointed out that Scheffler has already banked $23.9 million in 18 starts this season, winning five times and finishing inside the top-10 in 15 of those events. He reminded listeners that Scheffler gained 10.5 strokes on the field at East Lake last year en route to the title and now faces only 29 opponents with no starting-stroke cushion required. Oddsmakers list Scheffler at a prohibitive –1250 just to finish top-10, underscoring how dominant his baseline is. In Barnett’s view, the combination of elite recent form, proven course history and the small, no-cut field justifies eating the short price and locking in the outright even at +150.

Perry closed the card with Akshay Bhatia at 55-1, emphasizing his 15th-place rank in the Bet-The-Number model and a No. 3 position in approaches from 150-220 yards— the exact bucket that dominates Wilmington’s par-4s. Bhatia has posted positive SG: Approach in seven of his last eight events and gained 1.8 strokes putting at the 3M, hinting the flat stick is close to cooperating. Perry admitted the putter remains volatile (158th season-to-date) but argued the upside outweighs the risk in a no-cut setting where ball-striking wins out. If the putter even lands at field average, Perry believes Bhatia’s ceiling is high enough to pay off a mid-tier outright number.

Barnett said Hideki Matsuyama’s outright price sliding from 50-1 to 40-1 still leaves meat on the bone. He called the Japanese star’s recent approach numbers ‘vintage Hideki’— gaining 5+ strokes with the irons at both the Scottish and FedEx St. Jude— while noting the short game has quietly gained strokes in six of seven starts. The only leak is driver accuracy, but Barnett is willing to live with a few missed fairways at Wilmington where rough is modest and Hideki’s historically elite scrambling (7th on TOUR) can bail him out. Barnett concluded Matsuyama’s long-term win rate (8 PGA victories) is far higher than most names in the 40-1 range, making him a must-add to the outright card.

Barnett jumped on Chris Gotterup even after the number shortened from 45-1 to 35-1, citing a perfect Bethpage prototype for the Rutgers product: monster driver (317-yard carry average), aggressive scoring mentality, and Northeast familiarity. Although Gotterup lost nearly four strokes on approach over the first two rounds at TPC Southwind, Barnett highlighted his bounce-back Sunday where he gained 2.7 strokes ball-striking, framing it as evidence the swing tweak clicked. With Ryder Cup chatter growing louder— Gotterup sits well outside the points but could make noise with a playoff win— Barnett thinks the upside outweighs the recent volatility and likes attaching himself to the ceiling price while the market frets about one bad week.

Matt Every noted that Kitayama opened 55-1 Monday but was bet down to 45-1 by show time and said he would still fire. Every believes the market hasn’t fully priced Kitayama’s ball-striking surge— he has gained 7.4 strokes tee-to-green per tournament since June— or the narrative juice of needing a late-season win to crack the Ryder Cup team. The Bet-The-Number model graded him No. 2 overall this week, and Every emphasized Kitayama’s elite long-iron play (Top-3 in approaches 175-225 yards season-to-date) matches the bulk of Wilmington’s par-4 approach distances. With confidence soaring after back-to-back top-12 finishes, Every is happy to ride the steam at 45-1.

Barnett flagged Kurt Kitayama at +300 for a top-10 as his favourite placement bet. With only 49 players teeing it up, he framed 3-1 as ‘better than most NFL money-line dogs’ and argued Kitayama’s recent form (T2, T11, T9 last three starts) plus 2nd-place ranking in the Bet-The-Number model makes the price a steal. Kitayama has gained at least 1.2 strokes on approach in five consecutive events and is 4th in total driving carry over the same span— two skills Barnett thinks are mandatory at Wilmington. He added the Ryder Cup carrot (Kitayama needs a win or high finish to impress captains) as an intangible that should keep the foot on the gas through Sunday.

Pat Perry told listeners he had no issue swallowing the short +750 on Rory McIlroy. Perry argued the course sets up perfectly: generous fairways accentuate McIlroy’s 1st-ranked driving distance, while bent/poa mix greens mirror venues where Rory has gained 0.7 strokes putting per round over the past two seasons. He stressed that, unlike some elites merely tuning up for East Lake, McIlroy’s statistical profile (top-5 in SG: Tee-to-Green in five straight starts) screams ‘peak form.’ Given his track record of erupting during playoff events (three wins and eight top-5s in his last 12 FedEx Cup starts) Perry believes Rory’s true win probability is closer to 15%, making +750 a playable number even for single-bullet bettors.

Barnett followed Cameron Young with Ben Griffin at 35-1, noting that Griffin graded 5th in the Bet-The-Number model and shockingly ranked near the top of the field in driving-carry distance— a metric usually dominated by bombers. Barnett admitted he underestimated Griffin’s power but pointed out that the lefty sits 3rd in the field in strokes-gained approach over the last eight rounds and has gained with the putter in six straight events. Barnett called Griffin “freaking dialed right now” and said a win doesn’t feel crazy on a course that rewards carry distance and hot irons, making 35-1 a number he wanted to grab before it shortens.

David Barnett said Cameron Young was the first name that stopped him when scrolling the odds board and immediately clicked the 30-1 outright. Barnett argued the Wilmington routing rewards heavy drivers who can carry bunkers, a skill Young flashed when he ranked 6th in total driving carry in the Bet-The-Number database. He added that Young sits 14th in the Ryder Cup standings, giving him added motivation to keep his foot on the gas, and pointed to Young’s last five starts (four top-25s with +1.4 strokes-gained tee-to-green per round) as proof the ball-striking has rounded back into form. With no cut in a 49-man field and the “monkey off his back” after last season’s playoff win, Barnett believes Young’s win equity is meaningfully higher than his 30-1 price implies.

Barnett labeled Xander Schauffele an avoid for both betting cards and DFS builds, saying the American "is not fully himself" at the moment. While Caves Valley is expected to reward bombers and hot putters, Barnett does not believe Schauffele’s current ball-striking consistency is sharp enough to keep pace with Scheffler or the other heavy hitters in what should again be a birdie-fest (projected winning score 18-under or better). Given Xander’s premium price and recent underwhelming finishes, Barnett prefers to deploy salary-cap or outright units elsewhere.

David Barnett advised passing on Rory McIlroy in outright and DFS builds for the BMW. Barnett’s read is that McIlroy is treating Caves Valley primarily as a warm-up for next week’s Tour Championship at East Lake, so he doubts Rory will press the gas pedal the way Scheffler will. Although the setup should suit McIlroy’s length, Barnett questioned whether the competitive edge will be there in a no-cut event that offers limited FedExCup upside for a player already safely through. The combination of presumed lower motivation and a likely high ownership tag makes Rory a fade in Barnett’s view.

Matt Every said he is riding with Scottie Scheffler to win the BMW Championship even though there is uncertainty around regular caddie Ted Scott. Every acknowledged the on-course communication looked off when Scheffler’s stand-in looper was on the bag last Sunday, yet reminded listeners that Scheffler fired a 62 during the third round of the PGA Championship with that same fill-in. Caves Valley is a 7,600-yard par-70 that Every expects to play soft enough to encourage low scores, which amplifies Scheffler’s tee-to-green dominance and long-iron edge. With no cut in a 49-man field and $3.6 million to first, Every believes the combination of Scheffler’s bomber profile and four-round scoring safety makes him worth the short number in betting markets and a lock-button play in DFS contests.

Pat Perry said bettors should stop backing Tommy Fleetwood in outright markets until he finally proves he can finish a tournament. Perry pointed out that Fleetwood now leads the PGA Tour in top-10 finishes without a win—a stat ESPN flashed on Sunday—and noted Graham DeLaet’s on-air comment that every near-miss only worsens the mental hurdle. Watching the first FedEx Cup playoff, Perry saw Fleetwood lose control off the tee early, tighten up on approach shots, and fail to birdie the soft par-5 16th despite a perfect fairway lie, all classic signs of a player feeling the pressure. Perry compared Fleetwood’s body language coming down the stretch to a golfer sweating a Friday cut, concluding you can still cash placement tickets (top-10/20) on Fleetwood’s consistent ball-striking but outright wagers are lighting money on fire until he shows he can handle Sunday leads.

Perry’s longest top-10 ticket is Emiliano Grillo at +650. He’s trusting David Barnett’s model, which ranks Grillo No. 2 this week, and pointed out the Argentine has been “playing pretty well,” enough to justify the chunky payout in a small field.

Barnett likes Aaron Rai at +240 for a top-10, explaining that if Rai doesn’t win he still expects a big week because the Englishman sits 14th on the European Ryder-Cup standings and is hovering near the critical top-50 FedEx-Cup cutoff. That extra incentive plus solid recent form make the plus-money finish attractive.

Barnett called Xander Schauffele at +135 for a top-10 finish "a lock," pointing out the hosts already like him outright. In a 69-man field, Barnett believes any plus-money on Xander’s floor-high profile is a must bet.

Perry said Lucas Glover at 80-to-1 "could do some damage" despite a disappointing week at the Wyndham. Glover’s previous win at Southwind and dependable tee-to-green profile give Perry confidence that the veteran has the experience to seal another big playoff victory if he finds the weekend lead.

Barnett said Chris Kirk "gets me the most at 100-to-1," separating him from the other long shots. The host sees Kirk’s all-around game as suited to Southwind and trusts him to "close the door" if he gets in contention, making the triple-digit number too tempting to pass up.

Perry highlighted J.T. Poston at 65-to-1, stressing that Poston is already a multiple PGA-Tour winner who "does kind of just come out of nowhere." Poston’s irons popped last week at the Wyndham, and he owns a "decent record" at Southwind thanks to a tidy short game—making him dangerous if the approach play stays hot.

Barnett floated Denny McCarthy as a long-shot outright, noting McCarthy finished 11th last week, carries "decent form," and is one of the tour’s best putters. Because TPC Southwind features "pure Bermuda" greens—his favorite surface—Barnett believes the setup could line up for McCarthy’s first PGA-Tour victory.

Pat Perry argued that Shane Lowry is "pretty good value" at 50-to-1 because he sits 7th in the Bet-The-Number model. Perry acknowledged the familiar concern—Lowry’s putting—but pointed out every other statistical category stacks up well, making the Irishman a worthwhile outright stab in a 69-man playoff field.

Barnett said he prefers Harris English over most others in the mid-30s outright band, calling it "tough to ignore how well he's playing right now." With English showing sustained form heading into the playoffs, Barnett feels bettors can safely click his name in the same range as Berger while still getting ceiling win equity.

Barnett pushed Hideki Matsuyama at 40-to-1, noting the Japanese star is the defending champion and that his iron play "is back" after flashing vintage form at The Open. In a strong but limited-field playoff event where elite approach play usually wins, Barnett considers those odds too long for a player with recent ball-striking momentum and proven success on the track.

David Barnett said he is backing Daniel Berger in both the outright and placement markets at TPC Southwind. Barnett reminded listeners that two of Berger’s four PGA-Tour wins came on this course, calling him a textbook fit because “he’s going to hit fairways” and remains an elite ball-striker. After having Berger on the show earlier in the week, Barnett was encouraged by the player’s own words: Berger feels he has a real edge chipping out of the pure Bermuda around the greens and was noticeably ‘cocky’ about where his game sits. That combination of proven course history, specific short-game comfort on the grass type, and visible self-belief led Barnett to label Berger a buy in all betting formats this week.

David Barnett reminded listeners that two of Daniel Berger’s four career victories came at TPC Southwind and said he is punching the ticket at the mid-40s number. After interviewing Berger earlier in the week, Barnett reported the Floridian is openly bullish on his current ball-striking and believes he has a unique advantage chipping off the sticky Bermuda surrounds. Even during Berger’s injury-plagued 2023, he still gained strokes tee-to-green in three of his last four measured events. With comfort on the property and renewed confidence, Barnett sees ceiling-winning potential that the books are undervaluing.

Pat Perry endorsed Viktor Hovland as a must-have near the top of betting cards. Hovland owns three consecutive top-20s at TPC Southwind and ranks 2nd in the field in SG:Ball-Striking over those appearances. Perry acknowledged the well-known scrambling weakness but stressed that Southwind’s closely-mown run-offs mitigate that liability compared to gnarly rough venues. With driving accuracy emphasized and Hovland gaining over a stroke off-the-tee per round in his last five starts, Perry projects another realistic win chance and likes him in both outright and one-and-done formats.

Barnett flagged Aaron Rai as a high-ceiling GPP play rather than an outright ticket. Rai has gained a staggering 19 strokes on approach across his last eight measured rounds (The Open + Wyndham), leads the field in fairways hit during that stretch, and traditionally over-performs on par-70 layouts under 7,300 yards—an exact description of TPC Southwind. While name recognition will keep his DraftKings ownership modest, Barnett believes the iron play alone justifies overweight exposure, especially in single-entry contests.

Barnett called Matt Fitzpatrick "very, very dialed" and was happy to take the 30-1 number. He highlighted Fitzpatrick’s sea of green on recent strokes-gained charts—positive in every category over his past four starts, including +1.2 SG:Approach per round since the Scottish Open. With a top-12 Ryder Cup spot hanging in the balance, Barnett expects added motivation. Southwind’s small greens should reward Fitzpatrick’s elite wedge game; he ranks top-5 in the field from 100-150 yards over the last 24 rounds. Barnett sees him as a core outright and top-10 bet.

David Barnett grabbed Chris Kirk at triple-digit odds, citing a perfect confluence of recent form and course fit. Barnett noted Kirk has gained strokes tee-to-green in six straight starts, is coming off back-to-back top-25 finishes, and historically gains over half a stroke per round on Bermuda greens. Southwind rewards players who keep it in the short grass, and Barnett pointed out Kirk ranks inside the field’s top 10 in fairways hit over the last 24 rounds. With outright prices as short as 60-1 appearing at other shops, Barnett argued the 100-1 available early in the week is simply mis-priced.

Pat Perry said Tommy Fleetwood is one of the first names he would click at the FedEx St. Jude, calling 25-1 a bargain. Perry stressed that Southwind’s tight corridors and water-guarded greens accentuate Fleetwood’s accuracy and short-game strengths. The Englishman finished 3rd here in 2023 and has continued to trend with a run of strong ball-striking numbers over the past two months. With Rory McIlroy skipping the event, Perry believes Fleetwood’s outright path is clearer and expects him to contend from Thursday morning.

Matt Every followed up his 170-1 outright bomb on Ben Kohles by grabbing a 5-to-1 top-20 ticket for added exposure. Every called Kohles “probably the best putter I know right now other than Denny McCarthy” and pointed back to Kohles’ recent upward trend in approach play—exactly what Sedgefield’s 72% GIR environment rewards. With the Wyndham historically turning into a Bermuda putting contest and Kohles already proving he can gain strokes in every department, Every believes the former UNC star has both the floor and ceiling to land inside the top-20. The 5-1 number, in his view, underrates a player whose spike-week flatstick alone can cash this prop.

Pat Perry moved beyond his earlier outright stab on Adam Svensson and locked in a +450 top-20 ticket. Perry reiterated that Svensson pops 14th in David Barnett’s analytic model thanks to top-35 rankings in every approach bucket and a recent surge in driving accuracy. The Canadian has also picked up strokes putting in three straight visits to Sedgefield, gaining 6.9, 5.4 and 2.1 on the slick Bermuda surfaces that decide this event. Perry thinks the +450 price bakes in Svensson’s historically cold putter but ignores that he’s suddenly rolling it and already owns a Bermuda-green victory at the RSM. For bettors who want exposure without full outright volatility, Perry sees the placement market as the sweet spot.

Barnett flagged Emiliano Grillo at +320 for a top-20 as “way too long” given the Argentine’s current form. Earlier in the show he called Grillo’s outright price ‘stupid’ because the veteran is striking his irons as well as anyone in the mid-tier. With Sedgefield offering almost no driving advantage and turning into a wedge contest, Barnett wants to bet on the player who is already gaining strokes on approach almost every week. He argued that an elite ball-striker who’s been living on the first two pages of leaderboards all summer should be closer to +200 in this market, making the 3.2-to-1 ticket a clear value play.

David Barnett staked a nine-to-one ticket on Harry Higgs to finish inside the top-20 at Sedgefield. Barnett reminded listeners that Higgs has teed it up here four times and already logged a top-20 despite generally poor course form in prior seasons. What swings the value this year, according to Barnett, is trajectory: Higgs has rattled off three straight top-30 finishes (T25, T24, T28) and his iron play is finally perking up—exactly what the wedge-heavy Donald Ross layout demands. Barnett thinks the combination of renewed confidence, positive recent ball-striking and proven comfort on slick Bermuda greens justifies the long 9-1 number for a simple placement bet, especially for bettors who don’t want to chase the 300-1 outright ticket he recommended earlier in the show.

David Barnett admitted he “hates betting Brian Campbell,” yet could not ignore the ceiling at 200-to-250-1. Barnett dubbed Campbell “Jim Herman on steroids,” pointing out the American has already won twice on Tour—once on a course that didn’t even suit him. Sedgefield, by contrast, rewards Campbell’s strengths: extreme fairway accuracy (Barnett joked he’s hitting “120 percent of his fairways”) and a hot putter that has produced victories on Passpalum, Bent and Bermuda this season. Barnett added this is Campbell’s last realistic chance to grab a win before Ryder Cup selections, so motivation is sky-high. With the Wyndham often turning into a putting contest and longshots having a history of breaking through, Barnett is willing to fire an outright ticket and sprinkle top-10/20 props on Campbell as a pure ceiling play.

Pat Perry locked Chris Kirk onto his outright card at 100-1, arguing the number ignores both form and fit. Kirk is a multi-time PGA Tour winner who just finished runner-up at the Rocket Mortgage a few weeks ago, proving spike-week upside remains. Perry emphasized that Sedgefield rewards draw-biased, fairway-finding tee shots and reliable wedges—Kirk’s exact profile—while the slick Bermuda greens align with his preferred surface. Sitting 73rd in the FedEx standings, Kirk needs a strong showing to reach East Lake, giving him additional motivation. Perry admitted Kirk’s course record is oddly pedestrian (best of T-11 since 2016) but chalked that up to variance, saying the veteran’s current iron play and comfort on Bermuda make him an auto-bet at triple-digit odds and a rock-solid DFS pivot off the chalkier mid-range names.

Matt Every said Pierceson Coody’s game “looked absolutely flush” while finishing T-3 last week and sees the former Texas star as a live sleeper at Sedgefield. Every noted Coody gained 3.5 strokes putting and nearly nothing on approach because he kept knocking wedges inside 12 feet only to lip out. Stat-wise, Coody picked up nearly two strokes off the tee with a power/accuracy blend that should translate even on a shorter Donald Ross track. Every called the 24-year-old “a big talent that hasn’t hit yet” but believes the combination of trending ball-striking, confidence from a podium finish and still-lumpy outright odds makes him an intriguing bomb for outright cards and a cheap upside play in DFS tournaments.

Pat Perry could not believe the price on Adam Svensson, calling 150-to-170-1 “flat-out wrong.” Perry said Svensson pops 14th in David Barnett’s analytic model despite the triple-digit number because he’s top-35 in every approach bucket they weighted and 13th in driving-accuracy over the last 30 rounds. The Canadian’s ball-striking surge is paired with sneaky course history: he has gained 6.9, 5.4 and 2.1 strokes putting in three straight trips to Sedgefield and closed with a 60 last week. Perry reminded listeners Svensson’s lone PGA win came on fast Bermuda at the RSM, another short, dog-leg layout, and argued that if his baseline-cold putter merely holds serve he has real win equity on a course where wedges and a suddenly hot flatstick decide everything. He labeled Svensson a mandatory outright sprinkle and a leverage DFS dart in large-field GPPs.