Camenker likes Isaac TeSlaa anytime TD at +200. Amon-Ra St. Brown and Kalif Raymond could both miss Thursday, freeing up red-zone targets. The Cowboys have already coughed up a league-high 21 receiving touchdowns to wide receivers. The 6-4, 215-pound third-round rookie has turned three of his six receptions into scores thanks to elite body control, and Sam LaPorta’s season-ending back injury leaves even more end-zone work available. Camenker believes Goff will look TeSlaa’s way on contested throws, making the + odds attractive.

Camenker backed Jahmyr Gibbs 100+ rushing yards at +175. In Detroit’s three games against bottom-quartile run defenses, Gibbs has averaged 14 carries, 138.3 yards and 1.3 rushing touchdowns. Dallas ranks third worst in defensive EPA per rushing attempt, presenting the same soft matchup. With the Lions likely down multiple receivers, he expects Ben Johnson to feed Gibbs and exploit the Cowboys’ biggest weakness. One breakaway run could push the explosive back over the century mark for the fourth time in seven contests.

Jacob Camenker said grabbing Dallas +3 is the safest side in what he calls a true coin-flip. Prescott and company have ripped off three straight wins while averaging 29.3 points, and post-bye defensive tweaks are generating just enough timely stops to beat good opponents. Detroit, meanwhile, has stumbled to a 3-4 record over its last seven, struggling to protect Jared Goff behind an injury-riddled offensive line. With top wideout Amon-Ra St. Brown "banged up," Camenker doubts the Lions can match Dallas drive for drive. Because the outcome may come down to the final possession, he prefers taking the field goal head start with the hotter Cowboys.

Blake Schuster laid -3 with Detroit, saying Thanksgiving letdowns and losses to Green Bay have become routine narrative noise. He expects a positive correction at Ford Field and thinks Dallas is 'due for regression' after its recent hot run. Schuster views the spot as a classic buy-low on the Lions and is willing to lay the points.

Richard Morin took the 3 points with Dallas. He acknowledged the Cowboys’ documented road issues but noted their three-game winning streak gives them confidence and form. Morin expects a tightly contested matchup and believes the cushion of a field goal is enough to side with the underdog.

Lorenzo Reyes said Jahmyr Gibbs 'could be in line for a huge day' versus Dallas, pointing to the Cowboys’ tendency to over-pursue and give up chunk gains on the ground when Micah Parsons is forced inside. With Detroit’s offense expected to rebound, Reyes advised elevating Gibbs in Season-Long lineups and using him as a core play in single-game DFS contests.

Lorenzo Reyes backed the Lions -3 despite a 1-2 skid, arguing their recent struggles stem from execution lapses, not roster talent. He views Dallas’ defense as improved but still vulnerable—particularly to mis-direction and explosive runs—making this a classic 'get-right' spot for Ben Johnson’s offense. Reyes is laying the points, expecting Detroit to regain rhythm in front of the home crowd.

Tyler Dragon laid the 3 with Detroit, predicting that the Cowboys’ current three-game win streak halts in prime time. Dragon emphasized Detroit’s need to keep pace in the NFC North and expects that desperation to tilt the matchup. He is comfortable eating a field goal, banking on the Lions to play with playoff-level intensity.

Jordan Mendoza grabbed the Cowboys +3, tying the pick to Detroit’s injury report. He pointed out that losing top wideout Amon-Ra St. Brown could limit Jared Goff’s passing options and force a narrower game plan. With Dak Prescott and the Dallas offense 'looking great' of late, Mendoza expects the visitors to at least stay within a field goal and give moneyline backers a live shot as well.

Jon Hoefling said the lack of a rest‐day edge on the short week removes one common Thursday handicap, so he is defaulting to Ford Field’s atmosphere and Detroit’s urgency. With both clubs 6-plus wins and jockeying for playoff position, Hoefling believes the Lions—still stinging from recent slip-ups—are the side that 'has something to prove.' He laid the 3-point spread, calling the home-field edge decisive for bettors.

Dragon gave the defending champs a 27-21 edge and laid the field-goal spread despite Philadelphia’s ongoing search for an offensive identity under Kevin Patullo. He cited the roster’s overall talent gap and Justin Herbert’s left-hand issue as enough to tilt Monday night at SoFi.

Dragon is laying 8 after pegging Rams 27-17. He blamed last week’s flat effort (three Matthew Stafford turnovers) on travel to North Carolina and expects a rebound against a Cardinals squad already eliminated, with the quick hop to Glendale eliminating fatigue concerns.

Even with Chicago improbably sitting atop the conference, Dragon likes Green Bay 28-24—good for a Bears cover but a Packers statement. He simply sees Matt LaFleur’s club as the NFC North’s best entering December and trusts Lambeau to reinforce it.

Denver has lived on the edge with eight one-score wins, but Dragon predicts a 26-16 result that clears the 7.5-point spread. Having already beaten Vegas in Week 10, he expects the Broncos to control tempo and avoid drama inside Allegiant.

Dragon has Baltimore 27-24 but would take Steelers +5.5, citing Lamar Jackson’s questionable health yet trusting home-field and extra rest after Thanksgiving to vault the Ravens into first place in the AFC North.

Despite losing three of four and laying 1.5 on the road, Dragon believes the Colts right the ship 27-24 to snap Jacksonville’s three-game surge in a suddenly wide-open AFC South race.

Dragon laid the hefty 8.5, projecting 28-17 Bucs. He framed New Orleans as a club "thinking about next year" while Tampa Bay chases a fifth straight NFC South title, implying motivation plus talent gap equals comfortable cover in Raymond James.

Riding a three-game heater, the Dolphins get Dragon’s nod 24-20 as 2.5-point favorites. He called the Jets "bad" and expects Miami’s momentum to trump MetLife’s December weather, stretching the streak to four and keeping their wild-card hopes alive.

Dragon laid the short 2-point road chalk, projecting Commanders 21-17. He thinks Washington’s backup quarterback can manage the game while Minnesota continues to be "marred" by poor signal-caller play after letting Sam Darnold walk. With Jayden Daniels still nursing an elbow, Washington’s depth under center becomes the key edge.

Calling Browns 16-14 (short of the 3.5-point spread), Dragon spotlighted edge terror Myles Garrett and a "top-ranked defense" as the difference in a duel between 2025 first-round passers Cam Ward and Shedeur Sanders. He expects each young quarterback to flash but believes Cleveland’s defense ultimately decides it.

Dragon picked Buffalo 27-24 but noted the 6-point number is rich because Joe Burrow’s return has made Cincinnati "by far" more dangerous. Cincinnati has beaten Buffalo twice in a row, including last postseason, so Dragon expects a close revenge win rather than a comfortable cover for Josh Allen’s crew as they chase the Patriots atop the AFC East.

Dragon projected a 27-17 Seattle victory, happily laying the 7.5-point road spread. His call hinges on Seattle’s opportunistic defense, fresh off a five-takeaway shutout of Minnesota, overwhelming Kirk Cousins and a still-gelling Falcons attack inside Mercedes-Benz Stadium.

Dragon laid the 3.5, forecasting a 25-20 Chiefs triumph he believes could "springboard" a late playoff push. He respects Houston’s No. 1 ranked defense but views Kansas City’s urgency at Arrowhead as the deciding factor in prime time.

Tyler Dragon predicted Detroit will squeak past Dallas 28-26 even though the Lions are laying 3 points. He acknowledged the Cowboys look revitalized since the trade deadline, crediting the mid-season addition of interior wrecker Quinnen Williams for Dallas’ recent surge, but Dragon still sided with a desperate Detroit squad that cannot afford a third loss in four games if it wants to stay in the NFC North race.

Christopher Bumbaca laid the 5.5 with Buffalo, noting that Houston’s 'goal-line issues are the opposite of how the Bills operate.' The Texans have converted just 42% of goal-to-go opportunities this year (29th), while Buffalo sits at 77% (2nd). Bumbaca expects those red-zone efficiency splits to decide the game even against Houston’s formidable defensive front.

Blake Schuster hammered Buffalo -5.5, quipping 'Have you seen Davis Mills play football?' and adding he would back the Bills 'at any number.' Schuster cited Mills’ 5.9 yards-per-attempt and 2.1% TD rate over his last six starts as evidence Houston’s offense will sputter, whereas Buffalo’s red-zone conversion rate ranks top-3 in the league.

Tyler Dragon backed Buffalo -5.5 because C.J. Stroud remains in concussion protocol. Dragon stated bluntly that Stroud’s absence 'eliminates Houston’s chance at an upset,' highlighting Buffalo’s 29.8 points per game over the last month against a Texans offense that has averaged just 16.0 in the same span without its star quarterback.

Lorenzo Reyes laid the 5.5 with Buffalo, calling the matchup 'strength on strength' but concluding the continued absence of C.J. Stroud swings it. Reyes pointed out that Buffalo ranks top-5 in EPA per play while Houston’s offense has scored just two touchdowns in two games with Davis Mills, making it unlikely the Texans can match the Bills’ scoring pace even with a solid defense.

Jordan Mendoza grabbed Houston +5.5, arguing the Texans' defense gives them a realistic chance to 'hang around' even if the offense is limited without C.J. Stroud. Mendoza expects Houston’s pass rush and top-10 DVOA secondary to slow Buffalo enough for a back-door cover, noting that Thursday night unders and home underdogs have both been profitable angles this season.

Jon Hoefling laid the points with Buffalo at -5.5, stressing that C.J. Stroud is 'unlikely to play once again' because he has not cleared concussion protocol. Hoefling believes Davis Mills will struggle to keep pace with Josh Allen, making it 'hard to imagine a world where Houston keeps this game within a touchdown.' He views the quarterback downgrade as the single biggest factor and expects Buffalo’s offense to control the game script.

Blake Schuster grabbed Detroit +2.5, insisting 'something's up with the Eagles' that a raucous Lincoln Financial Field will not fix. Schuster’s read is that Philadelphia’s recent offensive stalls and secondary lapses have not been fully priced in, making the Lions—with their top-10 passing efficiency and aggressive play-calling—the smarter bet to cover and potentially win outright.

Jordan Mendoza leaned Lions +2.5, asking whether Detroit is 'back to its high-scoring ways.' He expects the offense to travel well and put up a big number even against an Eagles front seven with name recognition but recent cracks. Mendoza concluded Detroit has shown enough firepower to keep pace with anyone and remains a live dog on the road.

Lorenzo Reyes took Detroit +2.5 and said he is sprinkling the moneyline because the Lions are 'more balanced' than Philadelphia. Reyes argued Detroit’s ability to score quickly forces the Eagles away from their preferred ground-and-pound identity, creating a game script advantage. He views the matchup as tight but believes Detroit’s offense gives them enough ceiling to win outright.

Christopher Bumbaca snapped up the Lions +2.5 'without much consideration.' His main angle is Dan Campbell being back on the headset after missing last week, which he believes sharpens Detroit’s in-game aggressiveness on fourth downs and short-yardage play-calling. Bumbaca thinks that edge, combined with the Lions’ balanced attack, makes Detroit the sharper side against an Eagles team he views as trending sideways.

Tyler Dragon laid the 2.5 points with Philadelphia, calling Sunday night a bruising, high-stakes matchup but noting the Eagles 'still have the most talent in the NFC'. Dragon acknowledged the offense has not fully clicked yet, yet expects that raw roster advantage—particularly along both lines—to win out in a grind-it-out game. He advised bettors to back the Eagles -2.5 before any late money pushes it back to the opening -3.5.

Jon Hoefling said he is 'shocked' Philadelphia is still laying points and grabbed Detroit at +2.5. He pointed to the Eagles' week-to-week inconsistency on both sides of the ball and argued that the Lions' offense has been far more reliable at finishing drives. Hoefling expects Detroit to control tempo, believes the Lions can win outright by 'five or more', and views the current spread as free points for bettors willing to fade a shaky Philadelphia squad.

Passing along analysis from the CBS Sports pick column, Giannotto highlighted that the Ravens have surrendered the fifth-most passing yards per game and have inexplicably never won in Minnesota. That vulnerability lines up with Justin Jefferson, who owns a 32% target share at home and has cleared 100 yards in four straight at U.S. Bank Stadium. With Baltimore’s corners allowing 1.93 yards per route (27th), Giannotto likes Vikings +4 and is targeting Jefferson alternate yardage props, projecting 8-10 catches and 110-plus yards.

Mark Giannotto relayed that Sporting News likes Denver laying the nine on Thursday night because the Broncos’ edge duo continues to live in opposing backfields. Denver’s rush has cranked out 32 sacks (top-8 in the league) and now faces a Raiders line that has surrendered 112 points over its last three road games. Geno Smith has turned the ball over seven times during that stretch and will again be without Brock Bowers, who exploded for 127 yards and three TDs in Week 9 but missed two of those blowouts. Denver is only 1-3 ATS when favored by more than a touchdown, yet the matchup tilt and Mile-High altitude have Giannotto comfortable laying the big number.

Citing Sporting News and ESPN wagering blurbs, Giannotto hammered home that Cleveland’s pass rush, spearheaded by Myles Garrett’s 10 sacks, is a nightmare for a Jets front that has already allowed 31 sacks (fourth-most). Jim Schwartz’s unit leads the NFL in pressure rate and is comfortable in man coverage, allowing them to crank up blitz frequency. With New York averaging just 16 points per game and facing a Browns offense that travels poorly (12.5 ppg on the road), Giannotto likes the under and is grabbing the Browns +2 in what profiles as a field-position slugfest.

Summarizing CBS Sports’ breakdown, Giannotto noted this neutral-site game sets up perfectly for Taylor. Atlanta has coughed up 100+ rushing yards in seven of eight contests and ranks 29th in EPA allowed per carry. The Colts want to hide Daniel Jones after back-to-back multi-turnover outings, so expect a run-heavy plan similar to Taylor’s 24-carry, 148-yard explosion in Week 7. With the public all over Indianapolis, the spread (-5.5) is creeping up, but Giannotto still views Taylor as the path of least resistance and a core DFS play.

Giannotto relayed ESPN’s optimism that Ben Johnson’s between-the-numbers passing concepts perfectly complement Caleb Williams, whose accuracy issues have been concentrated on throws outside the numbers. Johnson’s Lions offenses routinely funneled 65% of targets to interior zones, and early returns suggest Chicago will replicate that blueprint. Facing a Dallas secondary missing All-Pro CB Jaylon Johnson, the Bears are a trendy +1 home dog, and Giannotto expects the Williams–Johnson pairing to show immediate dividends against a defense that just allowed 334 passing yards in Week 2.

Citing BetMGM, Giannotto argued that Spencer Rattler’s clean 2-game resume (0 INT, 118.1 rating, 307-yard, 3-TD outing vs San Francisco) makes New Orleans +7.5 a live bet in Seattle. The Saints have already stayed within one score of the Cardinals and 49ers, and their quick-game approach mitigates the Seahawks’ elite edge rush. With New Orleans throwing at a 66% clip on first down, Giannotto sees a pass-heavy script that supports Rattler overs and a back-door cover.

Referencing ESPN’s betting preview, Giannotto pointed out that Daniel Jones owns the NFL’s sixth-best QBR (80.9) while completing 71.4% of his passes through two weeks. Pair that efficiency with Jonathan Taylor’s 5.6 yards per rush and a Colts offense ranking third in early-down success rate, and he is comfortable laying -3.5 against a Titans team whose pass rush has generated pressure on just 22% of dropbacks. Giannotto predicts Indianapolis reaches 3-0 and keeps Jones firmly in play for over 1.5 passing TD props.

Giannotto summarized Rotowire’s bearish angle on Herbert: Denver led the league in every major pass-rush metric last year and just posted six sacks in Week 2. With LT Rashawn Slater (hamstring) ruled out, Los Angeles’ protection finally faces a front capable of exposing its depth. Rotowire projects a low-scoring slog (DEN 20-17), making Herbert unders and a Broncos +2.5 ticket attractive. Giannotto notes the Chargers have covered only once in six games as a home favorite under Jim Harbaugh when allowing four or more sacks.

Quoting BetMGM analysis, Giannotto drew attention to Philadelphia’s glaring hole opposite rookie Quinyon Mitchell at cornerback—a spot Dallas repeatedly attacked in Week 1. Sean McVay is expected to isolate Puka Nacua (and Davante Adams) on that CB2, setting up heavy target volume. The Rams rank second in pass-rate over expectation and fifth in yards per drive, while the Eagles have ceded 8.1 yards per attempt. Giannotto likes Los Angeles +3.5 and pegged Nacua as a strong anytime-TD and 80-plus receiving-yard ladder play.

Giannotto relayed Sports Illustrated’s reminder that Jake Browning went 4-3 when pressed into duty in 2023, completing 70.4% of his throws with a 98.4 passer rating and 60.1 QBR. Minnesota has yet to score a TD in the first three quarters of any game this season, and its offensive line is allowing pressure on 38% of dropbacks. With Cincinnati catching a field goal, Giannotto believes the downgrade from Joe Burrow is overstated and likes the Bengals to cover, calling Browning a sneaky prop target for over 1.5 passing TDs.

Pulling from Sporting News and Arizona Republic write-ups, Giannotto emphasized that C.J. Stroud has carved up Jacksonville for 7 TDs, 0 INTs, and a 110.1 passer rating across his first two meetings while Houston has taken three of the last four in the series. With the Texans getting a full point on the road, Giannotto sees value in backing a Houston offense that ranks top-10 in explosive-pass rate against a Jaguars secondary giving up 8.3 yards per attempt. He projects another tight AFC South game decided by a field goal or less, making Houston +1 the play.

Giannotto, citing ESPN’s early line analysis, expects Atlanta to lean even harder on Bijan Robinson after he erupted for 143 rushing yards against Minnesota. Carolina’s offensive-line injuries (Austin Corbett left knee, Robert Hunt biceps) put the Panthers in negative game scripts and shorten their drives, creating extra possessions for the Falcons. Atlanta is already top-5 in rush rate over expectation and owns six defensive sacks through two weeks, a combination Giannotto believes will give Robinson 20-plus touches and pave the way for the Falcons to cover the -5 spread.

Mark Giannotto highlighted Sports Illustrated’s wager that Green Bay is a smash spot at -8. He pointed to the Packers leading the NFL in net yards per play (+2.4) despite opening with Detroit and Washington—both top-10 DVOA defenses—while the Browns limp in with Joe Flacco directing an offense ranked 30th in EPA per drive. Giannotto noted that Cleveland’s passing attack has generated only 4.9 yards per attempt and that Kevin Stefanski’s unit has failed to top 17 points in either contest. Facing its first weak opponent of the year, Green Bay’s balanced offense and swarming pass rush are projected to turn this into a blow-out cover.

Jacob Camenker targeted Jacory “Bill” Croskey-Merritt at +210 for an anytime touchdown. The seventh-round rookie paced Washington’s backs with 10 carries, 82 rushing yards and a score in Week 1 while tying Austin Ekeler for the team lead with two red-zone rushes. Green Bay did stonewall Detroit at 2.1 YPC, but Camenker likes the + odds because Croskey-Merritt has already carved out high-leverage work near the goal line.