Whalen urged grabbing Houston at plus odds to win the AFC South, arguing they own a higher season-long floor than Jacksonville. He acknowledged legitimate concerns—Houston dealt away left tackle Laremy Tunsil and is rebuilding the offensive line with "no-name guys"—but still prefers their roster to a Jaguars squad he believes is a year away from challenging for the division. With market hype pushing Jacksonville’s price down, Whalen sees value in the Texans as the steadier option in what he considers a two-team race.

Nick Whalen is fading Cincinnati at 10-to-1 to win the AFC. He called last year a best-case health scenario—Joe Burrow, Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins all stayed upright, Chase Brown emerged, and the offense still needed weekly shootouts to survive. The defense remains the primary worry: the secondary is thin, Trey Hendrickson’s contract standoff lingers, and only minor additions were made. Whalen doubts that lineup can travel to Buffalo, Baltimore or Kansas City and win playoff games, so current pricing is, in his words, “way too low.”

Jeff Erickson advised passing on the Chargers at 14-to-1 to win the AFC. He noted they are actually priced shorter than Houston despite residing in a brutal division with Kansas City and Denver. Erickson doubts the front office fixed core problems: the run game hinges on unproven backs Najee Harris and Mario Hampton, and the defense still lacks difference-makers. The team is banking on another second-round draft hit (Trey Harris is still unsigned) after striking gold with Ladd McConkey last year. Without a substantial talent infusion or likely home-field advantage, Erickson argued that 14-1 fails to compensate for their path or roster flaws.

Nick Whalen picked the Ravens to win the AFC but advised waiting to pounce if they open slowly. Baltimore starts with road games at Buffalo and Kansas City plus matchups against Detroit, Houston, and the Rams in the first six weeks—an early gauntlet that could push their price longer. Whalen believes this is the season the Ravens finally break through: Lamar Jackson’s offense showed flashes before last year’s 0-2 start, the roster is deep, and their defense remains stout. He acknowledges Buffalo has the easier path but thinks market movement after September could give bettors a better Ravens number than what is available in preseason futures.

Jeff Erickson argued that Houston is mis-priced at 17-1 to win the AFC. Bettors overreacted to last year’s offensive struggles, yet the Texans still won the AFC South, captured a playoff game, and nearly upset Kansas City at Arrowhead. Erickson highlighted an elite defense with a fierce pass rush, a new offensive coordinator, and a completely revamped offensive line—even after trading their star left tackle—that could finally protect their promising quarterback. He also noted an upgraded wide-receiver corps. Because strong defenses travel in January and the division is winnable, Erickson sees a clear path to a home playoff game and likes stashing the Texans now before the market adjusts.

Jeff Erickson recommended grabbing the Packers at 10-1 to win the NFC. Green Bay ranked third in DVOA last season even though Jordan Love played half the year hurt and the wide-receiver room was a mess. The front office spent first- and third-round picks on receivers, so Erickson expects a major bump in passing efficiency. He praised the two-headed rushing attack, Matt LaFleur’s play-calling, and the youth of the roster, calling the team ‘on the upswing.’ Detroit lost key pieces and Minnesota is breaking in a rookie quarterback, giving Green Bay a realistic path to a division crown and potential home-field advantage. Erickson’s only concern is a thin secondary if Jaire Alexander misses time again, but he still believes the roster offers value at the current price.

Kelley Bydlon endorsed taking the Rams at almost 2-1 on DraftKings to win the NFC West and 11-1 to win the conference. He thinks the Rams can push — and possibly pass — the 49ers because Matthew Stafford is healthy again, the front office added Davante Adams to pair with an aging but still dangerous Cooper Kupp, and the defensive line should generate a strong pass rush. Bydlon is a believer in Brock Purdy but feels San Francisco’s easy schedule and injury luck are already reflected in the price, while Arizona is correctly projected around eight to nine wins. With Stafford back, a deeper receiver group, and legitimate defensive juice, Bydlon expects Los Angeles to stay on the 49ers’ heels all season and sees the odds as a buying opportunity for bettors.

Sharp called Washington’s 87% fourth-down conversion rate in 2024 flat-out unsustainable. The Commanders converted 13-of-15 fourth-down runs without relying on the tush-push and Jaden Daniels posted early-2000s-level passing success in those situations. Sharp said those high-leverage plays will regress, leading to fewer points and making a 9.5 win total aggressive. He still likes the rookie-contract flexibility that let them add LT Laremy Tunsell and WR Deebo Samuel and praises Cliff Kingsbury’s horizontal attack, but overall he would lean under and views Washington as a classic regression candidate for bettors.

Warren Sharp ranked Denver’s offensive line second only to Philadelphia after combining yards-before-contact, short-yardage conversion, pressure rate, and ESPN pass-block win metrics. He pointed out Denver’s rushing attack cratered specifically when Javonte Williams handled early downs; with Williams now in Dallas and a deeper backfield behind that elite line, early-down efficiency should spike. That keeps Sean Payton out of predictable passing situations and sets up Bo Nix for a true sophomore jump rather than a slump. Pair that with a top-tier defense and Sharp expects meaningful team improvement, making Nix an intriguing season-long and best-ball upside play and Denver a live over/futures candidate.

Warren Sharp said the market is still pricing 2025 Pittsburgh like last year’s Mason-Rudolph offense, ignoring the massive upgrade to Aaron Rodgers. Even though Sharp questions the long-term strategy, he believes Rodgers’ final-season motivation, the front office’s push for added pieces, and a generally solid roster make 8.5 wins too low. Sharp noted Rodgers’ 2024 decline was shaped by Achilles recovery and a bad Jets coordinator, factors that will not carry over. For a one-year window he would bet the over on Pittsburgh’s win total.

Brown’s model spit out Marco Penge 10th overall, forcing a 125-1 ticket and some DFS sprinkles. Over the last 30 rounds on the DP World Tour, Penge ranks 1st in Strokes-Gained Off-the-T, averages 309 yards in driving distance, sits 6th in Birdie or Better Gained, and top-30 in Bogey Avoidance—an exact match to Brown’s Scottish weightings of distance plus scoring. The 27-year-old Englishman already owns a win this season at the Heinen Classic in China and followed with a solo 3rd and T-11 at the BMW International, proving he can contend against stronger fields. Brown figures if Penge can simply hover through Friday, his firepower gives him real Sunday upside and tremendous lineup flexibility in DFS builds loaded with expensive stars.

Brown grabbed Thomas Detry at 90-1, embracing the volatility that comes with a bomber who owns true spike-week equity. Detry has gained strokes off the tee in seven of his last nine starts and flashes elite putting upside—the same putter that fueled his eight-shot romp at this year’s Phoenix Open. Even when the putter is cold, Detry remains neutral to positive around the greens, and Brown highlighted the U.S. Open where Detry was green in every strokes-gained category except putting. Renaissance rewards that kind of all-around profile, especially in a week projected to play easier than normal. Brown’s thesis: Detry has shown he can gain multiple strokes in all four facets during the same event, a combination few triple-digit prices possess. If the Belgian’s flatstick cooperates, Brown believes a back-door win or juicy top-10 is firmly in play.

Brown went back to the well on Harry Hall at 70-1 outright and in placement markets. Hall ranks inside the top-20 in both Opportunities Gained and Birdie or Better Gained while averaging 305 yards off the tee—"plenty long" for Renaissance’s three reachable par-5s. Most importantly, he is on a putting heater, sitting top-5 in Strokes-Gained Putting over his last eight events. Hall is also top-20 in Bogey Avoidance, giving Brown confidence the Englishman won’t kick away scoring chances. Brown noted Hall skipped defending his title at the ISCO Championship to test himself in this stronger field, signaling confidence and form. With Hall inside the top-25 of every weighted category except around-the-green, Brown thinks one of his trademark God-mode putting weeks could put him in the mix and offers tremendous DFS upside.

Brown punched a 65-1 outright on Ryan Fox, calling the number flat-out wrong given Fox’s recent form and statistical fit. Although Fox ranks only 68th in raw driving distance, his 304-yard average is "plenty long" once fescue roll-out is factored in. Over the last 24 rounds he sits 23rd in Birdie or Better Gained, 24th in Opportunities Gained, top-20 in Strokes-Gained Approach, and top-20 in Par-4 Scoring—every bucket Brown weighted heavily this week. The New Zealander’s results back it up: a run of T20, T19, T17 plus two earlier wins shows he’s lurking. Fox also owns a win at the Alfred Dunhill Links, reinforcing his comfort on firm fescue and large, contoured greens. Brown believes that ceiling plus links pedigree makes Fox one of the best mid-tier values on the board and a prime DFS leverage play.

Matt Brown said this is the perfect spot to fire outright and DFS shares on Ludvig Aberg but warned he will likely have zero exposure at next week’s Open Championship. Brown loves Aberg’s current profile for Renaissance—elite driver who ranks top-20 in Birdie or Better Gained and Opportunities Gained over the last 16 rounds, plus a T-4 here in 2024 that proves course fit. The Scottish setup features generous fescue run-outs and oversized greens, minimizing short-game stress. Brown thinks that masks Aberg’s one glaring hole: around-the-green play, where he sits outside the top 100 on Tour. At Royal Troon next week, the tighter lies and mandatory creativity around pot bunkers will punish that weakness, so Brown plans to pivot off Aberg there. For this week, however, he expects the Swede’s driver-plus-birdies combo to thrive in a projected 20-under shoot-out and is happy to grab him at 30-1 or better.

For head-to-head bettors, Bydlon played Jake Knapp –105 over Hao-Tong Li. His model repeatedly pushed Knapp inside the top-25 thanks to power-driving and improved irons, whereas Li’s recent form is spotty and offers little evidence he can contend in calm scoring conditions. Bydlon sees Knapp’s floor as multiple strokes higher given Li’s tendency to spray the driver—an especially costly trait when missed fairways bring fescue and pot bunkers into play. With the market pricing the matchup near a coin-flip, Bydlon believes Knapp should be closer to –130 and labeled it his favorite 72-hole matchup on the board.

Bydlon backed Max Greyserman for a top-20, pointing to a T21 here last year and a five-event stretch where the New Jersey bomber has gained strokes both off-the-tee and on approach in every start. Greyserman is plenty long for Renaissance, and his recent field-adjusted tee-to-green numbers sit inside the top-15. Bydlon said he considered an outright but settled on the safer plus-money top-20, noting Greyserman’s volatility makes him a perfect upside target in DFS showdown slates as well.

Bydlon punched Sam Burns tickets outright (40-1), top-5 and top-20, calling the LSU product a sneaky perfect fit. Burns ranks 3rd in his 16-round model thanks to elite irons and his trademark top-5 putter. Recent finishes—2nd Canadian Open, 7th U.S. Open, 17th Travelers—confirm the trajectory. While Burns is only 306 yards off the tee, Bydlon noted that ranks 55th in the field but is just six yards shy of 20th, so distance is more than adequate. Past Scottish results (T19 2023, T18 2021) prove he can handle the fescue, and birdie-heavy scoring mitigates his occasionally wild driver.

Bydlon doubled down on Scottish native Robert MacIntyre at 33-1 outright and a separate top-10. Over his last 16 rounds Bobby Mac sits inside the top-35 in every ball-striking metric and 11th in putting. Recent results—T17 Travelers, 2nd U.S. Open, T20 Memorial, T6 Colonial—show the surge is real. At Renaissance he’s a fixture: winner in 2024, runner-up in 2023, T18 in 2021. Bydlon said that combination of red-hot form and home-course comfort makes 33-1 far too long and expects the number to shorten by Wednesday night.

Kelley Bydlon welcomed Ludvig Aberg back onto his card at 30-1, highlighting the Swede’s renewed consistency over his last 16 rounds: 29th off-the-tee, 19th in driving distance, 19th in approach and 8th in Opportunities Gained against this field. Aberg finished T4 at Renaissance last year, so course fit is proven. Bydlon admitted the short game is still shaky but figures oversized greens minimize the weakness. Any time Aberg drifts to 30-ish, Bydlon says he’ll buy because the ceiling—elite driver plus high-rate birdie maker—plays perfectly in a projected 20-under shoot-out.

Reynolds could not resist a triple-digit stab on Laurie Canter at 175-1. Since rejoining the DP World Tour last summer, Canter has wins in Germany and Bahrain, ranks No. 1 in strokes-gained off-the-tee and 7th in approach among Tour regulars, and just finished 7th at the BMW International. Those metrics perfectly match Reynolds’ model weighting on distance plus irons at a calm Renaissance Club. With the Open berth carrot dangling—and very few elite drivers priced beyond 100-1—Reynolds believes Canter is the kind of volatility-friendly bomber who can spike a win when the putter cooperates.

Reynolds added Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen at 90-1, noting the rookie has already posted runner-up finishes in Qatar and Puerto Rico plus three additional top-10s this year. On the DP World Tour he sits 6th in strokes-gained off-the-tee and 11th on approach among full-time regulars, numbers that mirror last year’s Scottish Open leaderboards. Neergaard-Petersen was 4th at the Dunhill Links, proving comfort on fescue greens, and his elite driving sets up birdie looks on Renaissance’s three-shot holes. Reynolds sees him as a perfect long-odds bullet for outright and each-way tickets.

Reynolds fired on Rasmus Hojgaard at 80-1, citing a profile tailor-made for a calm, score-fest week. Hojgaard ranks eighth in driving distance on the PGA side, was runner-up (with twin brother Nicolai) at the Zurich Classic, and finished 10th at Renaissance in 2022. The trio of reachable par-5s plus generous fescue run-outs plays directly into his bomb-and-wedge skill-set. Reynolds acknowledged the Dane’s frustrating PGA Tour season but pointed out that motivation spikes here with three Open spots on the line. If his streaky putter shows up, Reynolds believes Hojgaard’s ceiling is equal to players half his price.

Wes Reynolds grabbed Adam Scott at 55-1 because the Aussie checks every box for the Genesis Scottish Open. Scott owns a win at the Dunhill Links, finished runner-up here the year Robert MacIntyre swiped the trophy with an eagle from a fortuitous free drop, and has quietly posted top-20s in three of his last four majors (T12 U.S. Open despite brutal Sunday weather, T10 at last year’s Open). Reynolds believes the Renaissance Club’s calm forecast removes Scott’s only weakness—sheer length—while his classic swing, elite long-iron play and years of links reps give him an edge in a mid-range that lacks proven major winners. With the 43-year-old still chasing “one more big one,” Reynolds called 55-1 a clear mis-price worth adding to outright cards.

Reynolds added Matt Fitzpatrick at 45-1 for the Scottish Open, pointing to a resurgence in both power and putting. Fitz has two top-10s in his last eight starts, gaining 0.9 strokes per round off-the-tee in Detroit (5th) and finishing 1st in putting at the U.S. Open. He was runner-up on debut here in 2021 and owns a Dunhill Links win, confirming his comfort on slow fescue greens. With Ryder Cup qualification still in doubt, Reynolds expects maximum motivation. The separation from longtime caddie Billy Foster looks positive so far, as Fitz has gained approach strokes in three straight events. Reynolds believes that combo of trending ball-striking, rekindled flat-stick, and links pedigree makes 45-1 "flat out wrong".

Reynolds grabbed Collin Morikawa at 25-1 for the Scottish Open, arguing that a fresh partnership with veteran looper Billy Foster (Sebi Ballesteros, Darren Clarke, Matt Fitzpatrick) is the perfect spark. Morikawa climbed to 8th in strokes-gained total his last start in Detroit and has already shown he can make a rapid links adjustment—he missed the cut at the 2021 Scottish Open, swapped out his blades, then won the Claret Jug seven days later. He missed the cut here on debut but rebounded to 4th last year, validating the learning curve. Foster’s encyclopedic knowledge of U.K. winds and green complexes plus Morikawa’s top-five irons (field-adjusted) convinced Reynolds the two-time major winner is undervalued in the mid-20s.

Wes Reynolds punched a 22-1 outright on Tommy Fleetwood because the Englishman checks every Scottish-Open box despite mediocre raw distance. Fleetwood has finished runner-up, 4th, and 6th the last three years at Renaissance and owns a second-place finish at Royal Portrush, next week’s Open venue. Reynolds noted Fleetwood’s proven comfort on firm fescue layouts and the psychological edge of playing outside the U.S., where most of his near-misses occur. With calm weather turning the event into a mini birdie-fest, Reynolds expects Fleetwood’s elite long-iron play and seasoned links shot-making to keep him in the hunt and finally cash a trophy across the pond.

Kelley Bydlon recommended bettors who want exposure to Rory McIlroy hunt for the ‘winner without Scottie Scheffler’ market instead of a standard outright. Caesars is hanging 8-1 on Rory in the field-minus-Scheffler pool—the same price DraftKings lists for a full-field outright—which effectively removes the tournament favorite while keeping the payout identical. Bydlon urged listeners to line-shop because other books have shorter numbers in both markets and the gap can swing expected value by more than 30 basis points.

Kelley Bydlon said he is sitting out Scottie Scheffler outright tickets unless the number drifts to 5-1 or longer. DraftKings opened Scheffler at +360, a price Bydlon called "fair" but unplayable because this week’s mild Scottish weather neutralizes Scheffler’s talent edge. With Renaissance expected to play soft and scoreable, Bydlon thinks a larger portion of the field can reach 20-under, tightening win equity and making the world No. 1 a poor value. He plans to deploy Scheffler money next week at the Open Championship, where swirling winds and baked-out turf would reward Scheffler’s complete tee-to-green game and mental toughness.

Whalen is betting the Rams at +140 to miss the playoffs. He admits Davante Adams is a nice addition but doubts the run game and overall roster depth. With Arizona "creeping" and San Francisco still the class of the division, Whalen views Los Angeles as the odd team out and sees better value fading them than backing a shaky wild-card chase.

At +125, Whalen likes wagering on Cincinnati to miss the postseason. He loves Joe Burrow but said the offensive line projects as "bottom barrel," the run game is shaky because of that line, and the defense has internal turmoil with its best player reportedly wanting out. Given those trenches-related red flags, Whalen doubts the Bengals can survive the AFC gauntlet and considers the plus money fade a worthwhile play.

Whalen advocated taking Pittsburgh at +140 to make the playoffs. He called the defense "as elite as they come," grouping it with Philadelphia, Detroit and Denver among the NFL’s very best. The key upgrade is Aaron Rodgers, whom Whalen labeled the most mistake-free quarterback in league history. He envisions a conservative 20-16 style where Rodgers avoids turnovers and the defense handles the heavy lifting, a formula he believes will rack up enough wins for a postseason berth.

Whalen said he would sprinkle on Denver at +330 to win the AFC West and likes them around –114 to return to the playoffs. The Broncos surprised at 10-7 last season behind rookie Bo Nix, whom Whalen now trusts to play like a poised veteran. He expects a "big jump" from the defense and praised the run-game additions of J.K. Dobbins and second-round rookie Audric Harvey, arguing the overall roster improvement gives Denver a live shot to unseat Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs.

Whalen tagged Atlanta at +155 to make the playoffs as one of the best value plays on the board. He concedes Tampa Bay’s offense could win the NFC South but slots the Falcons alongside the Rams, Vikings and Packers in the wild-card race. His optimism stems from second-year QB Michael Penix Jr.’s expected leap, a strong run game, and an upgraded defense that should keep Atlanta in the mix even if they fall short of the division title.

Whalen recommended betting Minnesota at –106 to reach the postseason. He expects Brian Flores’ unit to be "very solid defensively," giving the Vikings a high floor even while rookie QB J.J. McCarthy learns on the job. With an upgraded offensive line, a run-heavier approach, and Justin Jefferson still the focal point, Whalen believes 9–10 wins is realistic, which would cash the near-even money playoff ticket.

Nick Whalen backed Detroit to win the NFC North despite calling it the league’s toughest division. He said the Lions remain "cream of the crop" on offense and now boast arguably the best defensive front outside Philadelphia plus what he believes could be the league’s deepest secondary. With that two-way balance, Whalen is comfortable laying a short price on Detroit to repeat as division champs even though all four NFC North teams won 11-plus games last year.

Nick Whalen gave a cautious 3/5 endorsement to Aaron Jones over 775.5 rushing yards at –110. Jones topped 1,100 yards last year and has cleared this mark in five of his past six seasons, so averaging 55–60 yards across 13–14 games would cash the ticket. Whalen’s hesitation is durability—Jones’ recent soft-tissue issues—and Minnesota’s intent to share carries. He expects a surprisingly balanced split with Jordan Mason, signed from San Francisco, and pointed out that Jones was the league’s most inefficient high-volume red-zone back in 2024. Whalen even sees a scenario where Mason becomes the 1A late in the year, but the total is low enough that Jones can still get home if he stays on the field.