He also attacked Over 7.5, projecting 8.3. Kolek’s underlying 4.03 FIP and Meyer’s 4.15 ERA point to more runs than raw ERAs suggest, and both bullpens have exploitable weaknesses—particularly Miami’s 25th-ranked unit. Add in San Diego’s recent uptick in hard-hit rate and Peterson is comfortable betting the total climbs above the key 7.5 number.

Peterson fired on Over 7.5 (projected 8.3). Toronto’s Bowden Francis leads MLB with 15 home runs allowed while sporting a 5.54 ERA and ghastly 6.50 FIP. Texas ace Nathan Eovaldi has been lights-out (1.60 ERA, 0.5 HR/9), but the Rangers’ bullpen ranks 19th with a 4.17 ERA and could leak late runs. Toronto’s pen is only middling (3.71 ERA). The combination of a homer-prone starter and two average relief corps convinced Peterson the market total is too low.

Peterson played Over 7 with his model spitting out 7.3. Webb’s 4.08 road ERA and Flaherty’s 1.9 HR/9 suggest both starters can be touched, while Detroit’s top-five offense regularly pushes totals higher. Even a neutral Comerica Park won’t be enough to keep this matchup under the posted number in Peterson’s view.

Peterson also fired on Under 8.5 runs. Bibee’s stingy 1.46 home ERA, May’s solid underlying metrics and Cleveland’s punch-less offense that averages only 3.45 runs per game at Progressive Field all point to a low-scoring affair. His model made the total 8.3, giving him enough cushion to play the Under at the current number.

Peterson laid -1.5 runs with San Diego at +125, compared to his fair price of -112. Rookie Stephen Kolek has been quietly effective (2.84 ERA) and keeps the ball in the yard (1.1 HR/9). He hands off to a top-10 bullpen (3.47 ERA). Miami counters with Max Meyer (4.15 ERA, 1.4 HR/9) and a relief corps ranked 25th (4.91 ERA). With the Padres’ offense in a strong platoon spot, Peterson expects a multi-run cushion.

Peterson grabbed Seattle -1.5 at +145 when he made the run line -102. Nationals rookie Mitchell Parker has coughed up at least three runs in five straight starts (4.39 ERA, 4.1 BB/9), and Washington’s bullpen is a disaster with a 6.13 ERA (29th). Seattle starter Logan Evans owns a respectable 3.33 ERA, and even if his 4.93 FIP hints at regression, a ninth-ranked bullpen (3.43 ERA) provides cover. The pricing discrepancy on the alternate run line was simply too juicy for Peterson to pass.

Peterson took Detroit at +106 with a personal line of Tigers -107. Giants ace Logan Webb is a different pitcher away from Oracle Park, posting a 4.08 road ERA versus 2.68 at home while surrendering double the home-run rate. Detroit counters with Jack Flaherty (4.39 ERA, 1.9 HR/9) but backs him with a lineup that ranks fourth in MLB at more than 5.1 runs per game, giving the Tigers plenty of punch to exploit Webb’s road struggles.

Peterson grabbed St. Louis -105, pricing the Redbirds at -116. He is fading Baltimore starter Tomoyuki Sugano, whose shiny 3.08 ERA masks a 4.81 FIP, just 4.9 K/9 and 1.5 HR/9. Those contact issues are compounded by an Orioles bullpen that sits 27th with a 5.46 ERA. While Cards starter Andre Pallante carries a 4.18 ERA, he faces an Orioles offense ranked only 25th at 3.8 runs per game, making the Cardinals the value side.

Greg Peterson laid out why he grabbed the Dodgers at -125. Cleveland starter Tanner Bibee has sparkled at home with a 1.46 ERA, but Peterson noted that the Guardians’ lineup gives him almost no margin for error, ranking 28th in home scoring at just 3.45 runs per game. Dodgers right-hander Dustin May owns a 4.09 ERA that is backed by an even better FIP and he limits power (1.1 HR/9), making it tough for Cleveland to steal cheap runs. Peterson’s true number was Dodgers -137, so he sees roughly 12 cents of value on the road favorite.

Peterson laid the -1.5 run line at +100 on New York, stating his fair price was -1.5 -122. He expects the AL’s highest-scoring offense (5.6 R/G) to feast on rookie Jack Kochanowicz, who sports a 5.03 ERA, 5.63 FIP, 4.3 BB/9 and 1.5 HR/9. Ryan Yarbrough has found his groove with a 2.27 ERA across his last nine starts after shifting full-time to the rotation. Peterson anticipates a comfortable multi-run Yankee win.

Peterson grabbed the Twins at +108, pricing them as -111 favorites thanks to Chris Paddack’s current heater—three earned runs or fewer in nine straight starts and a 2.22 ERA over his last eight. He contrasted that with Zack Littell’s 4.25 ERA, inflated 5.42 FIP and troubling 2.1 HR/9. With the starting-pitching gap and plus money available, Peterson felt Minnesota offered significant value.

Peterson took Under 8.5 runs (projected 7.6). He cited Adrian Houser’s six–inning scoreless debut for Chicago and a Mets matchup versus a White Sox lineup that ranks 28th in scoring (3.3 R/G, just 2.9 on the road). On the other side, Clay Holmes carries a 3.13 ERA and gives up only 0.8 HR/9. With two competent arms and one of the league’s worst offenses involved, Peterson expects a low-scoring affair that never threatens nine runs.

Peterson laid -116 with Kansas City, noting Michael Lorenzen’s 3.77 ERA and manageable 1.4 HR/9, then highlighting a Royals bullpen that ranks 5th in MLB with a 3.27 ERA. While Nick Martinez owns a respectable 3.43 ERA, Peterson stressed the number jumps to 4.18 on the road and that Cincinnati’s overall staff ERA (4.11, 18th) is mediocre. He made the Royals -134 and felt the superior relief corps would decide a close game.

Greg Peterson backed the Cardinals at -104, saying his own line made St. Louis a -144 favorite. He pointed to Erick Fedde’s 3.77 ERA and stingy 0.8 HR/9 as a clear advantage over Charlie Morton’s ugly 7.86 ERA, 5.3 BB/9 and 2.0 HR/9. Peterson added that Baltimore’s offense entered Sunday just 25th in runs per game (3.8), giving Fedde a soft landing spot. With the pitching mismatch paired with an anemic Orioles lineup, Peterson felt the market was undervaluing St. Louis.

The same pitching profile that favors Chicago also prompted Peterson to play Over 9. Both starters allow loud contact—Brown gives up 1.3 HR/9 and Lodolo 1.1—and Great American Ball Park ranks No. 2 in Statcast HR Park Factor. With Chicago pacing the NL in scoring and his model spitting out 9.6 runs, he’s happy to sweat the fireworks.

Peterson also bet Over 8, projecting 8.7 runs. He expects Seattle’s top-10 road offense to rough up Colton Gordon, while Houston should scratch across runs against Castillo’s diminished strikeout stuff and a bullpen that has been stretched the last two days.

Peterson bet Under 10 because Jesus Luzardo is locked in (1.95 ERA, two total homers in 10 starts, two runs or fewer in five straight) and Oakland’s lineup averages just 4.3 runs per game at spacious Coliseum. Rookie Gunnar Hoglund has been mediocre (5.06 ERA), but Peterson still projects only 9.2 runs in this run-suppressing environment.

Peterson’s final play was Under 8.5. Kodai Senga sports a sparkling 1.43 ERA with just one homer allowed in 10 starts, and the Mets bullpen ranks third at 2.89 ERA. Although Landon Knack owns a 6.17 ERA, his career 3.86 road mark suggests competence in spacious Citi Field. Peterson’s model shows 8.2 runs, enough edge to ride the Under.

He also played Over 7.5 (projected 8.3). Both starters have extreme home-run issues and Arizona’s offense is fifth in MLB at 5.1 runs per game. Warm Midwest temps and a neutral wind further support a crooked-number scoreboard.

Peterson bet Over 8 because both starters carry hidden warts: Robbie Ray’s glossy 2.67 ERA is offset by a 3.43 FIP and 4.3 BB/9, while Mike Soroka owns a 5.95 ERA and 1.8 HR/9. Washington’s bullpen is even worse at a 6.27 ERA (29th in MLB). He projected 8.7 runs and believes neither staff can stay off the barrels for nine innings.

Peterson laid -118 with St. Louis. While Sonny Gray is surrendering a career-high 1.4 HR/9, Brandon Pfaadt has been worse—three-plus runs in four of five outings and 1.7 HR/9 allowed. Peterson trusts the Cardinals’ deeper lineup against righties and priced the game at Cards -127.

Peterson laid -123 with Seattle. Luis Castillo owns a 3.20 ERA (3.52 FIP) and even with a career-low 7.0 K/9 still dwarfs rookie Colton Gordon, who has coughed up six runs in 9⅔ MLB innings. Seattle’s offense averages 5.1 runs per road game (6th overall), creating what Peterson valued at Mariners -143.

Peterson scooped +105 on Toronto because Chris Bassitt is in peak form—2.83 ERA with a 9.6 K/9 and stingy 1.7 BB/9. He fades Ryan Pepiot, whose 3.99 ERA is supported by an ugly 4.73 FIP and 1.6 HR/9. Toronto’s lineup ranks third in road wRC+ (3.6 runs per game) while Tampa Bay is 24th in home scoring. His fair line: Jays -104.

Peterson laid -115 with Chicago because Ben Brown’s inflated 5.44 ERA hides a 3.49 FIP and elite 11.3 K/9, signaling positive regression ahead. Meanwhile Nick Lodolo’s strikeout rate has cratered to 7.5 K/9, well below his career norms. Coupled with the Cubs’ league-leading NL offense, Peterson priced the North Siders at -128.

Peterson grabbed Boston -125, citing Walker Buehler’s steady form—three runs or fewer in five straight starts—and Baltimore’s pitching issues. Dean Kremer lugs a 5.50 ERA with 1.6 HR/9, and the Orioles bullpen ranks 27th with a 5.67 ERA. Peterson’s model made the Sox -171, giving nearly 50 cents of perceived value.

Greg Peterson laid -125 with Milwaukee because rookie right-hander Logan Henderson has surrendered only three runs over 16 innings (1.69 ERA) while striking out 23 batters across his first three starts. The pitching edge is amplified by a matchup with a Pittsburgh lineup that sits dead-last in MLB at just 3.0 runs per game. Peterson noted Bailey Falter’s pedestrian 3.50 ERA and middling 6.5 K/9, concluding the true price should be closer to Brewers -148.

Peterson played Over 8.5 (projected 9.1) because both starting pitchers bring question marks and the Nationals’ pen is a gas can. Kyle Harrison makes his first 2025 start after four relief outings (3.38 ERA in 5.1 IP) but was a 4.56 ERA arm as a rookie starter last year. Washington’s Jake Irvin owns a tidy 3.88 ERA, yet his 4.90 FIP and middling strikeout rate scream regression. Most importantly, Irvin hands the ball to a bullpen sporting a league-worst 6.22 ERA. Even a modest Giants lineup should score late, while Harrison’s limited leash means plenty of innings for a San Francisco pen that has been league-average at best. Peterson sees both clubs reaching four runs.

Peterson paired his Rays play with Under 9.5 (handicapped total 8.4). Despite Baz’s rough month, Tropicana Field has played almost a half-run below league average the past three seasons. Tampa ranks 24th in home scoring (3.9 RPG) and prefers mixing-and-matching relievers by the sixth inning. On the other side, Berrios’ new two-seam/slider mix has held opponents to a .249 xwOBA the last five weeks. With the dome closed and two managers willing to hook starters quickly, Peterson projects limited big innings and expects no more than eight combined runs.

Peterson made the Mets -127 compared to market -110, highlighting both the starting-pitching and bullpen gaps. Tony Gonsolin’s 4.05 ERA masks a 4.69 FIP, 1.8 HR/9 and 4.1 BB/9—exactly the skill set that can implode at Citi Field. David Peterson counters with a 2.86 ERA while keeping the ball in the park (0.7 HR/9). Once the starters exit, New York leans on a bullpen ranked third in MLB (2.91 ERA); the Dodgers sit 17th at 4.00. With late-inning leverage swinging to Queens and Gonsolin’s home-run issues unresolved, Peterson is happy to lay the short price on the Mets.

Peterson still makes Tampa -136 (market -116) even with Shane Baz struggling to a 5.33 ERA and four straight outings of 3+ runs. His logic: Tampa’s bats are better at home than advertised and draw Jose Berrios, who has surrendered two or fewer in four of five but owns a career 4.09 road ERA. Toronto’s lineup travels well (third in road run creation, 3.6 RPG) yet Tropicana consistently suppresses power. Meanwhile, the Rays’ typical buy-low spot on Baz comes with a bullpen ranking top-10 in leverage index efficiency. With the number short of his projection, Peterson fires on the home side.

Taking the Reds at +110 (Peterson line Reds -104) hinges on Andrew Abbott’s current heater and a stark bullpen edge. Abbott has given up only one earned run total across his last four starts (1.80 ERA in that stretch) and has dropped his season ERA to 1.80. Colin Rea looks good on the surface (2.38 ERA) but a 3.58 FIP and just 6.9 K/9 hint at looming regression. Once the starters exit, Cincinnati turns things over to a relief corps that ranks sixth in MLB with a 3.30 ERA, whereas the Cubs bullpen sits 19th at 4.23. Peterson believes those late-inning advantages flip the game in the Reds’ favor.

Greg Peterson laid out why St. Louis is worth a play at -110, pricing the Cardinals at -132 himself. Matthew Liberatore has blossomed in the rotation with a 2.92 ERA that is actually hiding an elite 2.29 FIP. He is limiting opponents to just 0.3 HR/9 and 1.4 BB/9, giving Arizona very little margin for a crooked inning. Arizona counters with Merrill Kelly, but Peterson noted Kelly’s Jekyll-and-Hyde split—2.35 ERA in Chase Field versus 4.28 on the road. With Liberatore’s underlying metrics screaming legitimacy and Kelly’s road struggles baked in, Peterson believes the wrong team is favored and recommends backing St. Louis.