WagerTalk TV: Sports Picks and Betting Tips

Tokyo Brandon advised betting on Merrill Kelly and the Diamondbacks in the first five innings against the Yankees. Kelly has historically excelled against New York, holding Yankee hitters to a .180 average and .580 OPS in his career. He recently had a strong start, unlike opposing starter Carlos Carrasco, who has struggled in recent years. With Kelly maintaining solid form even at 36 and benefiting from Arizona's top-3 ranked offense by Brandon's metrics, Brandon sees value in taking Arizona at +0.5 runs for the first five innings at odds between -120 and -135, expecting Kelly to outperform Carrasco early.

Tokyo Brandon recommended betting against Yankees pitcher Carlos Carrasco in the first five innings when they face the Diamondbacks. Brandon emphasized that Carrasco, now 39 and having battled cancer, has significantly declined recently, with WHIP declining from a prime of around 1.00 to as high as 1.70 in recent seasons. Carrasco's season opener was particularly troubling: in just two innings against a struggling Milwaukee lineup, he allowed three earned runs and gave up a home run. Additionally, Carrasco last faced Arizona in 2024 and was hit hard, surrendering four earned runs in four innings. Considering Arizona ranks third in MLB offense per Brandon's metrics, he expects Carrasco to be vulnerable again early in the matchup.

Drew Martin highlighted Hunter Brown and the Astros as a valuable underdog at +110 against the Twins for several reasons. Brown impressed in his first outing, striking out seven hitters in six innings pitched and allowing just two earned runs, despite taking a loss. His velocity topped 98-99 mph. Conversely, Twins' pitcher Joe Ryan struggled significantly against Houston hitters last season, allowing eight earned runs across 10 innings pitched. Drew sees Houston hitters having familiarity as a significant advantage. Despite both lineups ranking bottom five in team OPS early in 2025 and unfavorable travel conditions for Houston, Drew remains confident Hunter Brown's superior talent gives the Astros a clear pitching edge to win as an underdog.

Jimmy Adams recommended fading Luis Castillo and the Mariners today, signaling concern over Castillo's concerning underlying numbers from last season, including a high barrel rate and a hard-hit percentage of 42%. With the Mariners struggling offensively—two or fewer runs in four of six games—and coming up against Tarik Skubal, Adams sees Castillo and Seattle as clear bet-against candidates at the current pricing. Adams highlighted both the Mariners' consistent offensive struggles and Castillo's unsettling metrics as key factors for betting against them today.

Jimmy Adams advocated betting on Tarik Skubal and the Tigers today, emphasizing Skubal's motivation after giving up four runs against the potent Dodgers lineup in his first start. Adams dismissed that outing as understandable, given Los Angeles' strength, and spotlighted Skubal's elite pitching metrics, notably ranking in the 100th percentile in pitching run value last season and winning the AL Cy Young. Adams considers him an ideal 'bet-on' pitcher today, especially against a Mariners offense that has struggled to produce runs, scoring two or fewer in four of their first six games, including just one run yesterday. Adams sees outstanding betting value in backing Skubal at a reasonable price against Seattle.

Jimmy Adams expressed confidence in backing Zach Eflin and the Orioles because of Eflin's varied five-pitch mix that includes a cutter, sinker, sweeper, curveball, change-up, and occasionally a four-seamer. Adams praised Eflin for his surprising good fastball run value, high chase percentage, and excellent control (low walk rates), a key metric Adams personally values highly. Adams was encouraged by Eflin's previous start and his ability to disrupt opposing hitters' timing, combined with the strength of the Orioles' lineup, which currently leads MLB in batting average, is top-five in runs scored, and has hit 10 home runs already. This creates a compelling betting value in favor of Baltimore today.

Jimmy Adams is recommending betting against Garrett Crochet and the Red Sox today, highlighting concern after Crochet's recent $170 million extension. Adams explained that Crochet primarily relies on just two pitches, the four-seamer and cutter, suggesting that as the game progresses, Baltimore hitters will comfortably key in on Crochet's fastball. Additionally, Adams emphasized the Orioles' strong offensive metrics, noting their MLB-best batting average on the early season, top-five run production, and power with 10 home runs already. Given this combination of factors—Crochet's predictability with limited pitch types and new contract-induced pressure, contrasted with Baltimore's strong offensive performance—Adams sees significant betting value on the Orioles.

Jimmy Adams strongly recommended betting the Astros today against the Giants due to their ace Framber Valdez, who is coming off seven shutout innings against the improved Mets lineup featuring Juan Soto. Valdez excels at generating ground balls, ranking in the 99th percentile in ground ball percentage, 97th percentile in pitching run value, and boasting outstanding breaking ball run values. Adams believes Valdez won't require much run support and trusts the Astros bullpen to close out the game. Adams suggested three betting approaches: laying the money line, taking the Astros on the run line (at plus money), or betting them on the first-half run line, indicating he's very confident Houston will win and avoid a sweep.

Mark Zinno recommended backing Paul Skenes and the Pirates moneyline against Tampa Bay, emphasizing the favorable price at around -120. He cited Skenes' elite pitching talent as rarely being available at such a moderate favorite price, calling it a 'must play' on principle. Despite some bullpen hesitations, Zinno fully expects Skenes to pitch deep into the game (6 or 7 innings), providing significant security. He also pointed out the Pirates' recent strong offensive performance, scoring 6, 6, and 7 runs in their last three contests, producing enough run support for Skenes. Zinno endorsed both the full-game and first-five moneyline plays, acknowledging the Pirates bullpen concerns but expecting Skenes to mitigate that issue.

Drew Martin strongly recommended betting the White Sox at a significant home underdog price of +158 against Minnesota, citing several reasons. He noted White Sox starter Sean Burke had a six-inning shutout performance against the Angels on Opening Day, allowing only three hits. Conversely, Twins starter Pablo Lopez struggled against St. Louis in the opener (eight hits, four earned runs), and had two mediocre outings against the White Sox the previous year. Drew emphasized the Twins' current offensive struggles, pointing out they have the worst team OPS in MLB. With a relatively low game total around seven runs and Minnesota as -180 favorites, Drew believes the market setup strongly favors backing underdog Chicago, especially given their superior bullpen performance early on, boasting a 30% strikeout rate.

Drew Martin recommended betting on the Tampa Bay Rays as home underdogs at +115 against the Pirates, heavily citing their pitching advantages. Rays starter Ryan Pepiot excelled on opening day with six innings pitched, striking out eight and allowing just one hit. On the other hand, Pittsburgh's bullpen has struggled significantly so far, ranking bottom five in WHIP. In contrast, Tampa Bay's bullpen has impressed with a 30% strikeout rate and a stellar 0.50 WHIP. Drew also highlighted the Rays' offensive edge, with the Pirates lineup posting a sub-.550 team OPS. Drew noted the Rays' familiarity with the minor league stadium serving as their temporary home as another potential advantage.

Drew Martin strongly backs the Padres at -150 with Michael King pitching, calling it the night's best bet. Despite labored performances earlier, King now faces a weaker Guardians lineup compared to the Braves, whom the Padres recently swept convincingly. King also had an excellent past outing against Cleveland, allowing just one run and two hits over seven innings. Additionally, the Padres have displayed excellence from the bullpen (third-best WHIP at 0.69), whereas Cleveland's bullpen has struggled. Martin believes these factors make San Diego undervalued heading into this matchup, warranting a strong best bet recommendation.

Drew Martin is confident in backing Corbin Burnes and the Arizona Diamondbacks at -115 against the Yankees. Burnes finished last season strong, allowing just one earned run in his final 19 innings. He previously dominated the Yankees, striking out nine hitters and allowing only two hits in his last start at Yankee Stadium. Burnes enters well-rested as he wanted five days between starts. Drew contrasted this with Yankees pitcher Will Warren's lack of experience (0-3 record with a 10-plus ERA), highlighting clear pitching discrepancy and wagering value on Arizona.

Drew Martin is backing the Marlins at +139, believing the betting market has undervalued Miami with Sandy Alcantara pitching. Alcantara was impressive on Opening Day, throwing four-plus innings and touching 100 mph with 7 strikeouts. Both teams have strong bullpens entering the game, but Alcantara's standout early performance and plus-money home dog pricing offer good betting value against an inconsistent Mets offense.

Drew Martin highlighted Pete Alonso's impressive history at LoanDepot Park, making him an excellent player prop option. Alonso boasts 12 career home runs and an OPS exceeding .900 in Miami's home stadium. Given his strong splits and past success in the stadium, he stands out as a valuable target for player props in this matchup against the Marlins.

Tokyo Brandon is strongly negative on Grant Holmes' prospects for success against the Dodgers, calling him a vulnerable and inexperienced pitcher who's accustomed only to short outings of three or four innings rather than extended appearances. Brandon underscores the dangerous position Holmes faces, as he squares off against a Dodgers team featuring arguably the best lineup in baseball history and a fully rested, potent batting order. He also expresses concern about Holmes' limited career experience and short track record, compounded by Atlanta’s weak bullpen behind him and team's winless early record. Brandon openly predicts Holmes will struggle significantly in this challenging spot.

Tokyo Brandon identifies betting value in Freddie Freeman exceeding 1.5 hits, runs, and RBIs at -120 odds. Highlighting Freeman’s impressive start to the season, including consecutive games with a hit and home runs, Brandon emphasizes Freeman's dependability and Dodgers' potent lineup. With matchup conditions heavily favoring Dodgers batters against the inexperienced opposing pitcher Grant Holmes and the Braves' weak bullpen, Brandon confidently expects Freeman to deliver another productive outing, characterizing this prop as excellent value in consideration of Freeman's current momentum and strong surrounding lineup.

Tokyo Brandon sees clear betting value on Mookie Betts exceeding 1.5 hits, runs, and RBIs at DraftKings with odds of -120. He mentions Betts as one of baseball's top pure hitters, fresh off a rest day and therefore likely primed for a strong performance. Brandon notes the Dodgers' offensive strength, their ability to generate ample run-scoring opportunities, and Betts' prime batting position. Given these factors and the Braves' current pitching struggles, Brandon labels this prop offering as an attractive bet worth taking advantage of.

Tokyo Brandon strongly recommends betting Shohei Ohtani over 1.5 hits, runs, and RBIs (HRR) at -140. Brandon emphasizes that Ohtani, consistently one of MLB’s top hitters, typically sees his HRR prop line set at 2.5, making the lower 1.5 line unusually valuable. Pointing out how prolific the Dodgers offense has been (averaging 6 runs/game and currently 5-0), Brandon expects Ohtani to capitalize against inexperienced Braves starter Grant Holmes and a struggling bullpen. He finds the current line of just 1.5 extremely favorable and plans to take advantage himself, seeing it as an excellent opportunity given Ohtani’s role in a potent Dodgers lineup.

Tokyo Brandon strongly supports backing Tyler Glasnow and the Dodgers against the struggling Atlanta Braves. Glasnow has historically dominated Atlanta hitters, holding them to a .177 batting average, .507 OPS, and no home runs allowed over 62 at-bats. Brandon highlights that Atlanta enters this matchup 0-4 to start the season with a severely underperforming bullpen and is forced to start an inexperienced pitcher, Grant Holmes, known for short outings rather than extended starts. The Dodgers, on the other hand, boast a rested lineup he describes possibly as the best in MLB history, a deep bullpen, and flexibility in their pitching rotation. Given Glasnow’s past success versus Atlanta, paired with the Braves' travel fatigue and bullpen struggles, Brandon recommends multiple betting angles such as Dodgers moneyline (-220), Dodgers minus one run line (-180), and alternative prop bets like Dodgers score first and win (-120) and Dodgers race to three runs (-130). Brandon confidently asserts it's rare to get the Dodgers under -200, making these wagers particularly valuable.

Mark Zinno advised taking Atlanta Braves plus one and a half against the Los Angeles Dodgers, despite their rough 0-14 start. He emphasized that it's purely a value-driven bet, as this line typically costs around -140 or -150, yet because the Dodgers are heavily favored, bettors can get Braves +1.5 at nearly even money (minus 110). Zinno acknowledged the Braves recent hitting struggles, including getting swept by San Diego with just one total hit in their last game. He also cited Tyler Glasnow starting for the Dodgers, who dominated the Braves once last year (7 IP, 5 hits, 2 ER, 10 Ks). However, Zinno trusted in market correction and baseball's tendency to regress to the mean, indicating the Braves won't continue losing indefinitely, highlighting it as a valuable price-point wager even amidst tough circumstances.

Bryan Power again backs the under (8.5 runs, down to 8) in Giants vs Astros, highlighting Houston's diminished lineup after offseason exits of stars Kyle Tucker and Alex Bregman. His reasoning is bolstered by recent performance, with all three of Houston's opening games vs. the Mets producing four or fewer total runs. Moreover, both bullpens enter rested, and Bryan notes predicted rain will likely close Minute Maid Park's roof, historically helping pitchers and suppressing runs scored.

Tokyo Brandon identified Jack Flaherty's strikeout prop of 4.5 strikeouts (available on DraftKings) as significantly undervalued, strongly recommending betting the over. Brandon modeled Flaherty for approximately 5.36 strikeouts against the Dodgers in this matchup—well above the listed line—and cited that historically Flaherty has averaged 6.34 strikeouts per start against these Dodgers hitters specifically. Although Brandon still expects Los Angeles to win and Flaherty to concede some runs, he sees considerable betting value in Flaherty surpassing the modest 4.5 strikeout line and made this his second pick for the game.

Tokyo Brandon recommended betting on the Dodgers money line in part due to Yoshinobu Yamamoto's significant improvement in his second year stateside. He explained that Japanese pitchers often face difficulties adapting to MLB, specifically adjusting to a different baseball, stadium environments, and power-hitting MLB lineups. Despite acknowledging Yamamoto's previous struggles under pressure in Japan and an initial shaky MLB outing last year against San Diego—where he surrendered five earned runs—Brandon highlighted Yamamoto's excellent performance against the Cubs earlier this season as proof of his improving mental game and acclimation to MLB. He anticipates Yamamoto will comfortably hold Detroit's bats in check, particularly noting he expects Dodgers manager Dave Roberts to let Yamamoto pitch deep into the game. Brandon's play on the money line simmers with the confidence in Yamamoto's elite pitching ability and his upward trajectory entering the 2025 season.

Steve Seagrave advised betting the under on Justin Steele's total outs recorded at 15.5. He reasoned that Steele will likely have strict pitch limits early, as shown last season where Steele never exceeded the fifth inning and pitched only 67, 68, and 74 pitches in his first three starts. In his season opener against the Dodgers, he threw just 67 pitches over four innings. Further concern arises because he's facing a Diamondbacks lineup that was exceptional vs left-handed pitching in 2024. Steele is thus expected to struggle again, particularly due to limited pitch counts and matchup disadvantages. This prop is currently available at minus-120 at DraftKings, significantly better than the minus-160 at FanDuel.

Steve Seagrave recommended betting Arizona Diamondbacks on the moneyline for Opening Day against the Chicago Cubs. Justin Steele struggled significantly in his opener against the Dodgers, surrendering five earned runs and three home runs in just four innings. Zac Gallen, meanwhile, demonstrated excellent form at Chase Field last season, going 8-3 with a 3.36 ERA and a stellar .235 batting average against. Additionally, Arizona historically performs very well in home openers, winning comfortably the past four times they've opened the season at home, most recently with a blowout win (16-1) over Colorado last year. This blend of favorable history, home advantage, and pitching superiority makes the Diamondbacks a strong wager at -125.