Warren Sharp advised steering clear of Bryce Young in season-long fantasy formats, noting that the quarterback’s "late-season improvement" was illusory. Young’s success rate moved only from 34 % in 2023 to 38 % in 2024, and his yards per attempt crept from 5.5 to 6.3—still 37th in the league. Overall he ranked 41st in accuracy out of 46 qualifiers, 30th in EPA, and 39th in success rate. Sharp stressed that the small bump came against the NFL’s four weakest pass defenses (Cowboys 28th, Cardinals 26th, Buccaneers 25th, Falcons 20th), yet Young still placed 29th of 32 QBs in success rate over that span. With head coach Dave Canales already willing to bench him once—and a front office unlikely to grant another mulligan—Sharp warned that any early-season stumble could lead to a quick hook, torpedoing fantasy value.

Warren Sharp said Bijan Robinson should remain a priority RB1 for season-long and DFS play because Atlanta’s offense is now engineered to give him light boxes and constant goal-line work. New OC Zach Robinson abandoned heavy 12 personnel for 11, spreading defenses out and forcing nickel looks. As a result Bijan saw eight-man boxes on only 13% of carries in 2024 (down from 52% in 2023) and exploded for 10 goal-line touchdowns versus just 2 the prior year. With the Falcons drawing the league’s third-easiest defensive schedule, Sharp expects the same red-zone volume and rushing efficiency, projecting Robinson as a weekly top-five back.

Warren Sharp said bettors should fade Atlanta’s offense in live or second-half markets whenever Kirk Cousins is under center. He highlighted a dramatic 2024 split: Cousins ranked top-five in EPA per attempt, success rate, and yards per attempt before halftime but dropped to 31st in second-half EPA, posted the league’s third-worst interception rate, and threw 11 of his 16 picks after the break. Sharp traced the collapse to Cousins operating 100% of his snaps from shotgun or pistol while coming off Achilles surgery, a combination that becomes predictable and likely leads to fatigue. Until the Falcons prove they can adjust, Sharp believes second-half unders and opponent second-half spreads carry value.

Ray Summerlin pivoted to fantasy and called Daniel Jones a clear stylistic upgrade for Michael Pittman, Josh Downs and rookie tight end Tyler Warren. Jones’ short-area accuracy and willingness to pepper underneath routes align perfectly with the Colts’ top receiving trio, whereas Anthony Richardson’s scramble-and-bomb tendencies rarely did. Because Steichen needs wins now, Summerlin expects a quick-hitting, high-percentage pass game that funnels targets to Pittman and Downs and creates red-zone chances for Warren. He advised treating all three as undervalued in season-long and best-ball drafts if Jones is named the starter.

Warren Sharp said Daniel Jones still is "not a good quarterback," yet Indianapolis can smash an undersized win total if Shane Steichen baby-sits him the same way Brian Daboll did in 2022. Sharp reminded listeners that Daboll’s first-year training-wheels approach raised Jones’ floor and the entire offense’s floor, while letting him “spread his wings” in 2023 caused the system to crumble. Steichen, he believes, will lean on quick reads, designed runs and a conservative game plan that hides Jones’ down-field weaknesses. Combined with an easier-than-average schedule and a defense Sharp trusts to keep games close, he projects the Colts to grind out eight-plus victories, making them an over bet in win-total markets.

Rich Hribar finished his draft by defaulting to Indianapolis yet still made the case for an over. The Colts survived last season’s "literally worst offensive climate" and still won eight games, then overhauled the defense by adding Charvarius Ward and Cam Bynum and, more importantly, replacing Gus Bradley with Lou Anarumo. Hribar believes Big Lou’s schematic chops will raise the floor in a division light on elite quarterbacks. He has "no faith" in the Colts’ own QB room but thinks the roster is the best of the remaining bad teams, which makes topping their low posted win total a smart bet.

Rich Hribar grabbed the Panthers in the win-totals draft and said they are the sneakiest path to an NFC South surprise. He pointed to a legitimately upgraded offensive line and a front-seven overhaul aimed at fixing what he called "the worst run defense in NFL history." The front office spent on Bobby Brown and Tershawn Wharton for interior push and added Patrick Jones plus Christian Roosevelt at linebacker. With Tampa Bay expected to regress and Atlanta sporting a weaker trench unit, Hribar believes "somebody has to win games in that division" and Carolina’s schedule is friendlier than Dallas’, which must face Philadelphia and Washington four times. That combination has Hribar betting the Panthers to beat their posted 2025 win total and keep long-shot division tickets alive.

Rich Hribar selected the Carolina Panthers, stating someone has to win games in the NFC South and Carolina is better positioned than Atlanta. He trusts their superior offensive line and likes that the front office aggressively addressed what was the worst run defense in NFL history by signing Bobby Brown and Tershawn Wharton and adding edge depth with Patrick Jones and linebacker Christian Roseboom. Hribar expects that defensive improvement plus a manageable divisional slate to push Carolina past its low win total.

Warren Sharp warned against assuming a big leap from the Chicago Bears. Despite a new play-caller and upgraded offensive line, he is “very worried” about their brutal schedule. Sharp said the Bears could realistically finish with only five or six wins because they live in one-score games and Caleb Williams must be perfect late. He views Chicago as a potential under in win-total markets rather than a breakout candidate.

Warren Sharp went off the board for the Jacksonville Jaguars because they face a far easier schedule inside a soft division. He expects new play-caller Liam Coen to simplify life for Trevor Lawrence—whose consistency he questions—and has already invested in several Jaguars futures and offensive prop markets. Sharp believes the combination of scheme upgrade and schedule relief gives Jacksonville a clear path to beating their current win total.

Rich Hribar reluctantly took the Miami Dolphins but argued the market underrates their defensive front. If Chop Robinson, Bradley Chubb, and Jaelan Phillips are healthy—and with the recent addition of Matthew Judon—Hribar believes Miami’s pass rush can be “legitimately good,” offsetting a weak secondary. While acknowledging poor vibes (Mike McDaniel is the betting favorite for first coach fired), he thinks the front seven can steal games and make the posted win total too pessimistic.

Warren Sharp reinforced the Patriots call, pointing out their win total opened aggressively yet they still own the league’s second-easiest schedule by his metrics. In Year 2 for Drake Maye with a new head coach, New England is projected to be favored in 11 games. Sharp sees a clear path to double-digit victories and views the current over as playable despite the high opening number.

Ray Summerlin selected the New England Patriots and projected them to finish second in the AFC East. He expects the Dolphins to suffer a “year from hell,” is unconvinced by the Jets, and believes Mike Vrabel’s arrival provides a sturdy floor. Summerlin noted a defense loaded with talent, an upgraded offensive line, and a healthy Stefon Diggs giving Drake May a far better environment than the one he inherited last season, making New England undervalued in win-total and division-finish markets.

Ray Summerlin targeted the Pittsburgh Steelers as a bet to place second in the AFC North. He argued the Ravens are clear favorites, the Browns may not even be drafted in win-total contests, and the Bengals’ defense remains unimproved after a season in which Joe Burrow’s elite play still left Cincinnati short of the postseason. With somebody needing to claim the runner-up spot, Summerlin sees Pittsburgh as the value side in both division-placement and season-win markets.

Warren Sharp said he is taking the Seattle Seahawks to smash their posted win total. In the preseason Seattle has used 40 % less 11-personnel on early downs, signaling a clear shift to heavier sets that echoes what the same play-caller did with the Saints to open 2024. Sharp expects Sam Darnold to benefit from that structure and stressed that the Seahawks’ defense is “very good.” With a soft home date against the Buccaneers and several other winnable games, he believes the market still undervalues Seattle’s ceiling.

Hribar locked in Seattle’s over, ranking the defense top-five on paper and noting new HC Mike Macdonald can finally run the ball-control formula he wanted a year ago. He highlighted a schedule that brings tougher opponents – San Francisco, Houston, Tampa Bay – to the Pacific Northwest, and argued the offense will lean on heavier personnel (40 % less 11 personnel in preseason) to mask line issues and feed the play-action game. A 10-win 2024 team getting a friendlier path is, to him, the archetype of a profitable over.

Sharp selected Arizona’s over at 8.5–9 wins. He thinks the defense ‘has nowhere to go but up’ after heavy offseason investment and that a solid offensive line/run game combo lowers the burden on Kyler Murray, whose late-season injuries and diminished deep ball still worry him. With even modest defensive improvement and a middling schedule, Sharp believes nine wins is within reach, making this his least enthusiastic but still acceptable wager.

Warren Sharp felt the Bengals were mis-priced this deep in the win-total draft. While acknowledging concerns he has highlighted in his annual book, he still prefers Cincinnati to Pittsburgh and liked the value created by board position. Sharp reminded listeners to grab the in-season package that will feature Week 1 start/sit advice, underscoring that he expects the Bengals to remain fantasy-relevant immediately – an indirect vote of confidence in the roster’s overall health.

Hribar bet the Vikings over on the strength of Kevin O’Connell’s track record (two straight winning seasons) and a roster built to insulate J.J. McCarthy. Jordan Addison returns after suspension, Justin Jefferson avoided serious injury, and Minnesota added two linemen plus power back Jordan Mason to help a heavy play-action approach. On defense he trusts Brian Flores’s blitz-happy creativity. Choosing the NFC’s third-best North squad over a comparable AFC option made sense to him because the conference road is softer.

Summerlin grudgingly grabbed the Chargers over, noting Rashawn Slater’s injury compounds the franchise’s yearly offensive-line anxiety. He still sees upside because the defense unearthed young contributors in 2024 and excels in three-safety looks, while Justin Herbert remains an upper-tier passer. The AFC West strength and offensive-line volatility keep him uneasy, but he concluded the talent is enough to squeak past the posted total.

Ray Summerlin called the Buccaneers the easiest pick on the board. Tampa owns the league’s 10th-easiest 2025 schedule and shares a division whose other three clubs project for only 19.5 combined wins in Vegas markets. Although injuries to Chris Godwin and Tristan Wirfs are on his radar, Summerlin believes the Bucs are simply ‘actually good’ and should assert far more control over a weak NFC South than they managed a year ago.

Hribar drafted Washington’s over despite the league’s toughest slate (most games versus 2024 double-digit winners). He argued the organization finally ‘has quarterback right,’ patched its offensive-line holes, and again poured free-agent resources into the defense. Beating out the Giants and Cowboys is the path he envisions, and he believes the upgraded trenches give them staying power in those in-division slugfests.

Warren Sharp said he is betting the Broncos to clear their posted 2025 win total. He called Denver’s defense 'one of the best, if not the best in the NFL' and argued that gives the team an unusually safe floor. Sharp added that a sturdy offensive line plus a balanced run-pass approach should unlock even more consistency in year two of Bo Nix. Because bookmakers already bumped the number up after last year’s surprise season, Sharp believes the public is still short-changing a roster that owns both reliable weekly floor and legitimate upside.

Rich Hribar backed Denver’s win-total over, stressing that the 2024 breakout was fully deserved rather than lucky. He pointed out the Broncos actually under-performed their Pythagorean expected wins, so regression ought to add victories, not subtract them. Hribar praised a defense that was already good but largely ignored by the public, and noted the offense adds Evan Engram while promising more than 50 % route participation for Marvin Mims – both upgrades to last year’s passing game. His only caveat: Denver still needs to knock off elite opponents to reach true contender status, but he expects that to happen given the underlying metrics.

Sharp doubled down on the AFC West by taking Denver, citing "one of the best defenses in the NFL," a sturdy offensive line, and a balanced scheme that should mature in Bo Nix’s second season. Oddsmakers already bumped their total, but Sharp still sees both a high floor and meaningful upside compared with the Chargers in the division.

Sharp finally snapped up the 49ers, calling it a "layup" because Kyle Shanahan, Brock Purdy, and Christian McCaffrey headline an offense with a proven ceiling while Robert Saleh’s return boosts the defense. Most importantly, his numbers show San Francisco plays "by far the easiest schedule" in 2025, giving the team a very high win-total floor as long as catastrophic injuries are avoided.

Ray Summerlin drafted the Ravens first in his win-totals pool, arguing that Lamar Jackson keeps the offense near last year’s level while Baltimore’s historical success versus Cincinnati and a declining Pittsburgh roster give them a clear divisional path to 11-plus wins. Summerlin also noted the Browns remain an unknown quantity, further lowering the risk of AFC North roadblocks.

Warren Sharp said the Chiefs played "very tight" in 2024 because the receiving corps was banged-up and the offense had to live on third-down conversions just to reach the Super Bowl. With the wideouts healthy and Rashee Rice avoiding a Week 1 suspension, Sharp expects Andy Reid to “open things up a lot earlier in games and build leads quicker” instead of sitting on the ball. The takeaway is that Kansas City’s first-half team-total overs and full-season win total overs look attractive because the market may still be pricing last year’s conservative script.

Rich Hribar took the Kansas City Chiefs immediately after Buffalo, arguing their win floor is too high to pass. The Chiefs have posted double-digit victories every year since 2015 and have hit 12-plus wins in six of the past seven seasons. Hribar cited having "the best quarterback in the NFL" in Patrick Mahomes and what he called "arguably the best defensive coordinator" as structural edges that keep them in the 11-to-13 win band regardless of offensive style changes or statistical variance. He framed Kansas City as a tried-and-true futures anchor; even if the offense plays conservatively and lives in close games, the long-term results have been bankable and justify an over play on any total lower than 12.

Ray Summerlin said the Buffalo Bills are the clearest win-total bet on the board. His logic: (1) Buffalo owns what his proprietary model grades as a top-five strength-of-schedule edge, meaning they draw one of the league’s softest slates. (2) The rest of the AFC East looks pedestrian to him, with no roster he views as a serious year-long threat. (3) The Bills have cleared double-digit victories in six straight seasons, giving sportsbooks little cushion if they hang another 10.5 or 11.5. (4) As long as Josh Allen stays healthy, the offensive ceiling remains intact. Summerlin conceded Buffalo may not be the NFL’s best roster overall, but the combination of historic win consistency, division quality, and schedule strength makes them his 1.01 pick in a wins draft and a bet to smash any posted total in the market.

Warren Sharp flagged Caleb Williams as the league’s worst passer at avoiding sacks: a staggering 32 % of his pressures have ended in sacks—triple Josh Allen’s rate and the highest among 300-attempt QBs over the last two seasons. Because one sack slashes a drive’s scoring odds from 40 % to 25 % and halves expected points (2.2 ➜ 1.1), Sharp warns that Williams’ current habit is a fantasy and betting red flag. Until the Bears show schematic or protection fixes, he recommends fading Chicago team totals and Williams’ passing-yard/TD overs, and lowering season-long expectations for Bears pass-catchers.

Warren Sharp highlighted Josh Allen’s league-best sack-avoidance rate: only 10.9 % of pressures have turned into sacks the past two seasons. Drives without a sack score points 40 % of the time (25 % TDs, 2.2 PPD) versus 25 % with a single sack (8 % TDs, 1.1 PPD). Allen’s escapability preserves drives, boosts play volume and keeps Buffalo’s scoring floor sky-high—critical edges for passing-yard props, DFS cash builds, and season-long confidence. Sharp advises leaning overs on Allen’s yardage/TD props and trusting Bills skill players because the quarterback himself mitigates negative plays that kill fantasy points and betting overs.

Picking Clint Kubiak as the most impactful new play-caller, Orlovsky described a forthcoming "cheesecake-factory menu" of Shanahan-style motion, cadence variance, multiple launch points, and inside-outside run diversity that should elevate Seattle as a complete offense. The scheme historically boosts offensive-line cohesion, a unit that regressed badly last year, and drops Sam Darnold into the familiar rhythm-and-play-action environment that showcased his strengths in Minnesota. Physical downhill backs like Kenneth Walker and Zach Charbonnet fit the identity, while JSN gets manufactured touches in quick game. Orlovsky believes this balance will make Seattle "a difficult out," enhancing Darnold’s superflex appeal and improving Seahawk futures bets.

Orlovsky cautioned that Tanner Engstrand’s Jets scheme faces an uphill battle because Justin Fields "has never been good" at true three-step quick game. Fields routinely holds the ball 3-4 seconds, the inverse of Aaron Rodgers’ lightning release that previously masked offensive-line issues. Orlovsky expects Engstrand to lean on RPOs and perimeter screens to fake a quick game, but if those band-aids fail New York’s line could look disastrous, sabotaging drives and team win totals. Fantasy managers counting on passing volume or bettors eyeing Jets overs should temper expectations until Fields proves he can speed up.

Orlovsky argued that new Falcons play-caller Zach Robinson must dial up far more play action than Atlanta used last season to maximize Michael Penix’s "hand cannon." Penix is a self-described big-game hunter, and the roster boasts multiple vertical threats who can punish single-high looks. Orlovsky wants Robinson to chase chunk gains while still sprinkling an efficient underneath concept portfolio to beat today’s split-safety shells. If Robinson marries that deep-shot philosophy with early-down play action, Penix offers week-winning DFS upside and best-ball spike weeks at his still-depressed draft cost.

Dan Orlovsky said the early-preseason film convinced him that Ben Johnson is tailoring a quick-read, under-center, play-action scheme to mask Caleb Williams’ habit of holding the ball. In that first preseason appearance Williams’ average time to throw was just 2.1-2.2 seconds, a massive shift from last year. Orlovsky expects Johnson to keep forcing the first read open and lean on heavy play action, making Williams’ job uncomplicated and turning drive-killing sacks into quick completions. The next growth step—speeding through reads 2 and 3—will determine ceiling, but the floor already rises for fantasy drafters and DFS cash-game players banking on efficiency-based points.

Dan Orlovsky said Baker Mayfield repeatedly landed inside his top-10 lists for the seven quarterback traits he graded—decision making, ball placement, pocket movement, second-reaction ability, mechanics, arm strength, and rushing ability—showing up "a good amount" even more often than marquee names such as Justin Herbert or Jalen Hurts. Orlovsky explained that this multi-category presence demonstrates Mayfield is a more complete signal-caller than public perception suggests, reinforcing him as a late-round fantasy target and a potential over play on season-long passing props in Tampa Bay’s continuity-heavy offense.

Raymond Summerlin said he has been targeting Dameon Pierce in the late rounds because Houston’s new offensive coordinator is installing more man/gap concepts—exactly the downhill scheme Pierce thrived in at Florida and briefly as a rookie. Summerlin felt Pierce was miscast in last year’s zone-heavy attack but noted that recent Texans practices show the back hitting the hole decisively under the new system. With Mixon’s status shaky and Chubb looking sluggish, Pierce has a path to meaningful early-down work at a bargain ADP.

Matt Olson highlighted Woody Marks as the Texan most likely to benefit if Joe Mixon’s foot keeps him off the field. Marks has been flashing in camp, earning coaches’ trust with strong pass protection and natural receiving skills. Olson expects Nick Chubb (or Dameon Pierce) to handle early-down work, but sees Marks soaking up high-value third-down snaps in a Brian Robinson/Austin Ekeler-style split. That pass-game role could give Marks instant PPR relevance at the very end of drafts.

Raymond Summerlin said Joe Mixon’s foot issue has all the red-flag language of a long-term setback. He pointed to Ian Rapoport labeling the injury "frustrating,” a word Summerlin learned in his Rotoworld days is usually code for something that does not heal on schedule. Mixon still has not practiced, and Summerlin would not be shocked if news of season-ending surgery surfaces in the next couple of weeks. He advised fantasy managers to remove Mixon from draft boards rather than gamble on an extended absence that could wipe out the 2025 season.

Matt Olson reported that the Rams are being “cautious, cautious, cautious” with Matthew Stafford’s balky back but still expect him to start Week 1. Stafford will undergo another test on Saturday—the same protocol that caused a minor flare-up earlier this month. If he clears it, team doctors are prepared to green-light him for full practice, and Sean McVay reiterated that the veteran remains on track for the opener. Olson warned that back injuries can resurface at any time but, for now, views Stafford as good to go, stabilizing Rams passing bets and season-long outlooks.

Matt Olson predicted T.J. Hockenson will open the year as the focal point of Minnesota’s passing attack. Justin Jefferson is still managing a hamstring issue, Jordan Addison is unavailable for the first three games, free-agent Moore is on IR, and Jalen Nailor just picked up an injury. With the top of the depth chart gutted, Olson expects Kevin O’Connell to funnel targets through Hockenson, making the tight end a value in season-long drafts and an immediate plug-and-play for best-ball formats.

Matt Olson warned that Nick Chubb no longer looks like the league-best runner he once was. Metrics Olson tracks had Chubb at or near the bottom of qualified backs in 2024 efficiency, and the beat reports from Texans camp echo that decline. Olson still expects Chubb to grind out carries if Mixon is sidelined, comparing him to last year’s Najee Harris—steady volume, little burst, and a capped ceiling. Fantasy drafters should treat Chubb as a floor-play rather than a difference-maker.

Warren Sharp said he already bet Brian Robinson’s season-long rushing-yards UNDER, grabbing the number at 750 and noting the market has since slid to 700. Sharp’s projection bakes in three red flags: (1) Washington faced the 5th-easiest schedule of run defenses last year and draws a far tougher slate in 2025, (2) the Commanders are expected to play from behind more often, cutting into neutral-script carries, and (3) coaches are reportedly excited about an explosive change-of-pace option (“JMC”) who could siphon snaps. Add it up and Sharp believes Robinson finishes well south of the current posted total.

Warren Sharp noted that Justin Jefferson is ‘iffy to be 100 percent’ for Week 1 and Jordan Addison will be sidelined for three weeks, leaving practice reps wide open. Lucky Jackson has been running with the first team throughout camp, and Sharp said the former XFL standout has enjoyed ‘a great two weeks’ while flashing repeatedly in team drills. With uncertainty atop the Vikings’ depth chart, Sharp believes Jackson could earn meaningful routes in September and is worth a late-round dart in best-ball drafts or as a DFS punt if Jefferson’s recovery drags into the opener.

Matt Olson warned that Brian Robinson could be phased out of the Commanders’ offense. Olson cited Ben Standig’s report questioning whether Robinson will even make the final 53 and noted Robinson has not cleared 800 rushing yards in any of the past three seasons. With Jacory Croskey-Merritt ripping off chunk gains in camp and Austin Ekeler entrenched as the passing-down specialist, Olson expects Washington to chase more explosiveness and lower Robinson’s early-down volume. Season-long managers should consider selling Robinson before preseason usage clarifies the depth chart, while bettors should temper any overs on his rushing props.

Matt Olson said Jacory Croskey-Merritt ‘could be the focal point’ of the Commanders backfield sooner than later. Olson relayed beat-writer Ben Standig’s note that Brian Robinson’s role – and even his roster spot – is in question, while Croskey-Merritt has been stacking explosive runs every day of camp. Robinson has failed to top 800 rushing yards in any of his three seasons and Washington has lacked big-play production on the ground. Olson emphasized that a seventh-round pick who ‘never should have lasted that long’ is now flashing with the first unit, and coaching staffs – especially Kliff Kingsbury, who is coaching for job security – will not bench an explosive runner that solves a long-standing problem. Fantasy drafters in best ball or season-long formats should stash Croskey-Merritt now before preseason usage and joint-practice reports push his ADP higher.

Ray Summerlin said Jaydon Blue is his favorite mid-round best-ball target because the Cowboys are expected to lean heavily on the pass under Brian Schottenheimer. Blue has already taken first-team reps in camp, and Summerlin believes that if the rookie earns Dak Prescott’s trust on passing downs he can "absolutely smash" on full-PPR DraftKings scoring. The bet is not on early-season touches but on Blue becoming the primary receiving back by Weeks 8-11 when fantasy money is made. At an 11th-round ADP, Summerlin views Blue as a cheap upside stack with CeeDee Lamb and Prescott in a projected high-volume aerial offense.

Rich Hribar noted that Kyren Williams usually lasts to the 3-4 turn, but he expects the new contract extension to push the Rams back’s ADP "a few spots" as drafters gain confidence in his role. Even with that climb, Rich still wants Williams on Zero-RB builds because the Rams were top-10 in running-back target share last year and Williams profiles as a rare every-down back who can catch passes and avoid game-script traps.

Rich Hribar explained that the Chargers acquisition of Keenan Allen did not move Ladd McConkey in his rankings; he still has McConkey 21st overall. Rich was already a couple spots below market on McConkey, so Allen’s presence merely dinged the veteran receivers around him while McConkey’s short-area target projection stayed the same. If drafters let McConkey drift toward the 2/3 turn, Rich plans to buy the dip.