Sean Zerillo advised laying up to -200 on Aaron Pico’s UFC debut, pricing him closer to -220 despite public action favoring Lerone Murphy. Zerillo highlighted Pico’s elite folkstyle and freestyle wrestling base, plus camp work with Arman Tsarukyan and Khamzat Chimaev that signals a wrestle-heavy game plan. Murphy was controlled for 7½ minutes by Makwan Amirkhani, revealing defensive grappling holes Pico can exploit. Pico told media he will "stay busy with elbows" from top position, reinforcing Zerillo’s expectation of proactive takedowns and ground damage. Zerillo also projects Pico KO at +400 as value, making it +250 in his model due to the American’s power edge.

Claudia Bellofatto skipped the money-line and laid ‑180 on the fight-to-go-decision prop. Her case: Lerone Murphy has evolved from knockout hunter to patient wrestler, with each of his last five victories coming via judges. Aaron Pico owns Olympic-trial wrestling chops plus serious boxing pop, but is debuting after an 18-month layoff and has historically taken risks he will likely curb over three rounds. Murphy’s cardio questions and Pico’s wrestling edge cancel each other out in Claudia’s eyes, making a 15-minute back-and-forth more probable than a finish. She leans Pico slightly but believes the safest angle is simply banking on the judges’ scorecards.

Dan Tom cautioned listeners against backing Aaron Pico at a hefty number, saying he "wouldn’t go near it" even though he slightly favors Pico. The key red flag is Lerone Murphy’s inside-elbow game: Murphy routinely creates “car crashes” on entries, slicing opponents when they load up on overhands or liver-shot shifts—exact moments Pico historically leans into. Tom noted Jeremy Kennedy’s camp tried the same tactic and believes Murphy is even better at initiating that clash. Because a cut-induced stoppage or compromised vision could quickly swing momentum, Tom argued the fight carries more risk than a projected north-of--200 price implies and advised passing on the bet.

Dan Tom picked Aaron Pico to win but advised staying away from the betting window. He flagged two red-light factors: Lerone Murphy is taking the bout on short notice yet still cutting to 145, and first-time UFC transfers like Pico often underperform in their debuts – he referenced Manel Kape and Ariane Lipski as recent examples. Tom believes those uncertainties make the –190 money-line and an over 2.5 total that is juiced to –210 inconsistent, so he is passing on a wager and recommends bettors do the same unless the price drops closer to a pick’em.

Madlab Michael Lurato said Aaron Pico’s blend of explosive wrestling and underrated boxing gives him the clear upper hand. Lurato highlighted Pico’s ‘different kind of athletic’, noting his quick level-changes and heavy top game should let him score early takedowns and then open up power shots once Murphy has to respect the shot. He does not see Lerone Murphy — a footwork-first, in-and-out striker — creating the chaotic pocket exchanges that have troubled Pico in the past. Expect Pico to be “running downhill,” winning dominant positions and the optics on judges’ scorecards. Lurato still warns the –190 money-line feels wide for a UFC debut, but the stylistic read points to Pico by decision or late ground-and-pound.

Gumby Vreeland recommended taking debutant Aaron Pico at ‑170 despite the recent Bellator-to-UFC flop narrative. Pico is an Olympic-alternate wrestler and Golden Gloves boxer riding a 3-fight TKO streak (9-of-10 overall) and is five years younger with a 3-inch reach edge. Vreeland pointed out Lerone Murphy’s unbeaten record is padded: Murphy was taken down four times and controlled for an entire round by Josh Emmett and arguably lost a split to Gabriel Santos. Pico is a better and faster wrestler than Emmett, says Vreeland, and if he chains takedowns the way he did before the shoulder injury against Jeremy Kennedy, Murphy’s eight-fight UFC run ends on the mat. Play Pico money-line or consider Pico by decision prop to capture top-control time.

After re-watching Dan Ige’s success versus Lerone Murphy, Matty Betss predicted Aaron Pico will lean on his Olympic-caliber wrestling to cruise to a decision. Betss reminded listeners that Pico was a point away from qualifying for the 2016 Rio Games and also owns Golden Gloves credentials, giving him both the grappling and pocket-boxing edge. He expects Pico—eight years younger than recent Bellator crossover losers—to chain takedowns, control from top, and do damage with short elbows rather than chase a low-percentage submission. The only red flag Betss flagged is Pico’s occasional Michael-Chandler-style brawling that leaves his chin high, but if he keeps emotion in check Betss sees a comfortable 30-27 type win.