Billy Ward is backing Alexandre Pantoja, preferably in a same-game parlay with over 1.5 rounds or via the ‑5.5 point spread. Ward’s technical angle hinges on Kara-France’s reliance on the switch when standing up from takedowns; Pantoja is one of the featherweight division’s premier back-takers and should anticipate that escape, allowing him to mat-return and accumulate control. In their Ultimate Fighter bout, Pantoja won a round without significant ground time, and Ward expects similar competitiveness on the feet with a sizable grappling edge once it hits the mat. Kara-France’s 88% first-layer takedown defense is solid, but Ward believes the second-layer scrambles overwhelmingly favor Pantoja, whose chin has never seriously been questioned, whereas Kara-France has been knocked out multiple times. Ward forecasts a steady, top-control win for the champion that cashes parlays built around Pantoja and moderate overs.

VSIN Host said Alexandre Pantoja is mis-priced and should be closer to a –300 favorite, making him a "great parlay piece" with Ilia Topuria. He pointed out that Pantoja has literally beaten everyone in the division, averages multiple takedowns per 15 minutes, and owns an elite back-take that could turn into a rear-naked-choke finish. Kai Kara-France relies on looping overhand power, but the host expects those swings to open easy level-changes for Pantoja. He added that Pantoja’s underrated gas tank allows him to push a pace deep into championship rounds, while Kara-France has never gone 25 minutes and tends to slow late. Because the champ can dominate either by early backpack submission or by grinding decision, the host labeled Pantoja money-line or inside-the-distance props as safe building blocks for parlays.

Matty Betss leaned Alexandre Pantoja by decision, noting the champ’s granite chin and five-round cardio should let him grind Kai Kara-France without necessarily finding the rear-naked choke that cashed in three of Pantoja’s last six. Betss expects Pantoja to wear on France with chain wrestling and top control while mixing in pocket exchanges that France’s booming right hand struggles to land cleanly upon. He highlighted that City Kickboxing has flown in elite BJJ partners to shore up France’s sub-defence, making the tap less likely and pushing value to the cards. With the moneyline hovering around –250, Betss believes a decision ticket (often +200 or longer on a favourite) is mispriced—Pantoja attrition rather than flash finish is the most probable script in his view.

Bisping forecasted Alexandre Pantoja’s fourth successful title defense, citing a classic striker-versus-grappler dynamic. He dismissed MMA-math comparisons after Kai Kara-France’s first-round KO of former challenger Steve Erceg, reminding listeners that Pantoja already pushed Erceg to the brink in a five-round war. Bisping expects Pantoja to secure a body-lock from the clinch, drag Kara-France to the mat, and either pound him out or take the back for a rear-naked choke. Given Kara-France’s 86% takedown-defense rate against mid-tier wrestlers, Bisping believes Pantoja’s chain grappling is a level up and likes props on Pantoja inside-the-distance or via submission.

Joe Osborne advised using Alexandre Pantoja as a parlay piece at –255 in the co-main. Pantoja rides a seven-fight win streak, is already tenth on the UFC pound-for-pound list, and has defended the flyweight belt with a mixture of relentless pressure, back-takes, and improved boxing. Osborne contrasted that consistency with Kara-France’s hot-and-cold results, noting the challenger has dropped two of his last three and can be out-grappled when forced backward. Given Pantoja’s championship experience and finishing upside, Osborne sees the favorite as a safe leg to pair with other wagers on the UFC 317 card.

Welch is backing flyweight champ Alexandre Pantoja to beat Kai Kara-France by decision. Pantoja rides a seven-fight UFC win streak that includes wins over Moreno, Royval, Perez and Cape, and Welch believes the Brazilian’s combination of physical strength and elite back-taking grappling gives him multiple paths to bank rounds. Kara-France’s power and 12 KO wins make him live early, but Welch noted the New Zealander enters as a sizable underdog after a two-fight skid preceding his Steve Erceg knockout. Factoring in ATT’s game-planning, Pantoja’s championship confidence, and his ability to mix takedowns with long combinations, Welch expects a competitive but clear 48-47 or 49-46 decision for “The Cannibal.”

Dan Tom urged bettors to stay on the Pantoja-inside-the-distance train, highlighting technical wrinkles he has not seen priced into the prop market yet. Tom said Pantoja’s underrated Muay Thai clinch game has quietly become a weapon: in tape from fights with taller knee specialists Erceg and Asakura, Pantoja consistently controlled knee space, landed the cleaner knees himself, and shucked opponents off to hunting back exposure. Kai Kara-France, by contrast, relies on the same ‘weak wizard’ over-hook every time he defends takedowns; Tom noted the New Zealander is quick to abandon that wizard to fight hands, giving elite back-takers an open lane. Pantoja, whom Tom calls a "game-over grappler," converts those angles into body-triangle RNCs at one of the highest success rates in the division. Add in KKF’s historical tendency to freeze against strong wrestle-grappling threats—his volume dipped almost 20% versus Albazi—and Tom expects the challenger to hesitate, surrender the clinch, and get drowned late. With the straight money-line hovering around –265, Tom prefers Pantoja submission (+250) or round-4/5 props for a fatter payday.

Dan Tom echoed the pro-Pantoja stance but framed it through historical and stylistic angles useful at the window. He reminded listeners that Pantoja is 3-0 in rematches while Kai Kara-France is 1-2, noting trilogy math usually favors the original winner. Tape study showed KKF absorbs a disproportionate number of left-sided strikes—body kicks from southpaws Brandon Royval and switch-kicks from orthodox Brandon Moreno both crippled him before submissions or TKOs. Tom expects Pantoja’s stance-switching and heavy left body kicks to reprise that damage and open grappling entries. Because bodywork often goes under-credited by judges, he recommends chasing inside-the-distance props (sub or KO) instead of decision at roughly even money. That approach also mitigates the potential for judge Ben Cartlidge—on duty again after his controversial Yan-O’Malley scorecard—to reward KKF’s flashier head strikes in a close fight.

Madlab Michael Lurato advised betting Pantoja by submission rather than laying the –265 money-line. Lurato said he has never trusted Kai Kara-France’s overall MMA structure, citing spotty defensive grappling despite a respectable takedown-defense stat. He argued Pantoja’s back-taking is among the most dangerous sequences in the sport—once the champ locks a body triangle with two minutes to work, opponents rarely survive. Lurato pointed to Pantoja’s underrated cardio bursts: the Brazilian often looks gassed early in round three, then explodes into frenetic scrambles that break technical strikers. Lurato expects that pattern to repeat here: Pantoja eats some clean shots early, eventually drags KKF to the mat, secures back control and sinks a choke in the championship rounds. With the submission prop sitting near +250 and the ‘fight doesn’t go distance’ at roughly pick’em, he prefers the sub line and sprinkles Round 4 finish tickets for extra upside.

MMA Guru backed Alexandre Pantoja to squeak past Kai Kara-France on the scorecards (48-47 or 49-46). Guru said Kara-France morphs from knockout hunter to low-risk point-fighter whenever takedowns are a threat—citing the Amir Albazi and Askar Askarov bouts where the New Zealander switched to calf-kicks and pot-shots and largely abandoned his trademark step-through right hand that produced KOs of Cody Garbrandt, Steve Erceg and Rogerio Bontorin. Because Pantoja will press forward and change levels the moment Kara-France over-commits, Guru expects KKF’s finishing upside to vanish. He also highlighted Pantoja’s improved stand-up—body kicks that muted Manel Kape, follow-up punches in the pocket, and a willingness to end combos with hard low kicks—which will score while he hunts clinches. The Brazilian’s underrated durability and cardio should let him absorb the occasional counter and keep walking KKF down, banking close rounds through damage and control time along the fence. Guru recommended playing Pantoja money-line and sprinkling decision props rather than chasing a submission that may never materialise.

Brian Campbell backed the ‘Pantoja by submission OR decision’ market, saying it prices in everything he expects while trimming the juice. Campbell argued that Pantoja wins roughly two-thirds of the time through either backpack-and-choke sequences or a grinding 25-minute control game. He pointed to Kara-France’s recurring problems against elite grapplers (Royval sub, Moreno body-kick KO, split loss to Albazi after being repeatedly clinched) and noted KKF’s escapes against Bontorin still left him fighting off multiple choke attempts. Campbell dismissed MMA-math links through Steve Erceg, stressing that KKF always falters when the opposition is truly ‘super-elite.’ With Pantoja riding a career-best streak, motivated by a potential future Merab Dvalishvili super-fight, Campbell sees the double-chance ticket cashing whether the champ snatches a rear-naked choke or banks rounds behind top control.

Brian Campbell doubled down on an Alexandre Pantoja finish, arguing the champ’s late-career form has quietly become one of the best flyweight runs ever. Since winning the belt in a 25-minute slugfest with Brandon Moreno, Pantoja has tightened his striking defense and improved shot selection, posting back-to-back 60+ % significant-strike accuracy figures in sparring footage Campbell said he’s seen. Kai Kara-France, by contrast, is just 1-2 in his last three and hasn’t defeated a top-10 opponent since 2022. Campbell emphasized a pattern: when KKF faces “super elites” he gets stopped—Moreno body-kicked him, Royval caught a guillotine. Pantoja averages 3.8 submission attempts per 15 minutes and owns an 80 % career finishing rate. Campbell expects the champion’s backpacking style to expose KKF’s 47 % submission-escape success, predicting a round-3 or round-4 tap. He’s comfortable with the ITD prop or a smaller stab on Pantoja by submission at plus money.

Claudia Bellofatto played Alexandre Pantoja inside the distance at +120, calling it the best way to capture all of the champ’s win conditions. She framed the bout as striker vs grappler but believes Pantoja’s relentless back-takes (2.1 TDs per 15, 46 % control rate), granite chin and bottomless cardio eventually melt Kai Kara-France. KKF owns solid 84 % takedown defense, yet Bellofatto noted he slows after extended grappling exchanges and has been finished in two of his last four. Meanwhile, Pantoja has openly promised to showcase his own power, giving bettors knockout equity in addition to his trademark rear-naked choke. With KKF dropped in three of his last five and historically vulnerable once fatigue sets in, Bellofatto sees a late RNC or ground-and-pound TKO as the most likely outcome and calls the +120 number "a gift on a champion who almost always hunts finishes."

Kunath advised betting Alexandre Pantoja to defeat Kai Kara-France inside the distance. He admitted searching for reasons to pick the underdog but concluded the champion simply has more paths: world-class grappling, superior clinch work, heavier hands, and a proven chin that has absorbed power from Kai Asakura, Deiveson Figueiredo, and others. Kara-France concedes space, routinely backing to the fence versus Steve Erceg and Amir Albazi—tendencies Kunath says play directly into Pantoja’s straight-line pressure. Even with KKF’s 80% takedown defense, Pantoja can win ugly exchanges, break the Kiwi in clinch exits, and may even benefit from accidental head clashes when he crashes the pocket. At 35, Pantoja still fights hungry; Kunath doubts Kara-France’s killer-instinct in championship moments and sees the champ finishing late via submission or strikes.

Monk said Alexandre Pantoja at $9,000 is the safest ceiling play on the slate. Pantoja has scored exactly 143 DraftKings points in three straight bouts (Brandon Moreno, Brandon Royval, Steve Erceg) thanks to 9, 8 and 6 takedowns and 15 minutes of cumulative control time. He has appeared in the optimal lineup five fights in a row. Monk highlighted that Kai Kara-France’s 88 % reported takedown defence is hollow because he is still out-controlled 61 % to 39 %; Amir Albazi sat on him for six minutes and Askar Askarov rag-dolled him despite landing only two takedowns. Monk expects Pantoja’s relentless chain-wrestling to suffocate KKF, generate repeat mat returns and another triple-digit DK total. Because $9K is barely above Pantoja’s historical salary average, Monk is locking him in cash and GPP builds, sprinkling small KKF exposure only for game-theory leverage, and even recommends stacking the fight in cash games given the minus-money over-3.5 prop and projected pace.

Bedtime MMA sided with Alexandre Pantoja to repeat over Kai Kara-France, forecasting a 48-47 or 49-46 decision with a live shot at a late submission. He credited Kara-France’s City Kickboxing polish—stout initial takedown-defense, crisp boxing power, durable chin—and expects those traits to prevent an early wipe-out. Still, Pantoja’s evolution from pure marauder to layered threat now mixes feints, leg kicks and body kicks behind the constant shot threat. Bedtime MMA thinks that omnipresent level-change will freeze Kai in the pocket, allowing Pantoja to land right hands at range then drive him to the fence for easier takedowns and backpack control. He noted Pantoja dropped Moreno and Asakura recently, proof the striking is catching up. Key win conditions: volume edge, clinch trips, fence mat-returns, and those grinding back-takes that eat clock. Bettors were advised to hit Pantoja ML, Decision, and sprinkle Sub Round 4-5 in case a body-kick or right hand hurts Kai and opens the choke.