Cody Saftic said to attack Aljamain “Navajo” Sterling’s KO/TKO prop at plus money, arguing that the 6-foot-4 City Kickboxing product’s length and pace will eventually melt Ivan Erslan. Saftic noted Sterling’s 78-inch reach, switch-stance arsenal and the Eugene Bareman system that turned fellow lanky strikers Israel Adesanya and Carlos Ulberg into finish machines. He re-watched Sterling’s decision over Tokkos and came away encouraged by the 27-year-old’s ability to crank up volume late (output climbed each round), calling that cage time “graduate school in composure.” Erslan, by contrast, stands due-north, offers no lateral movement and willingly traded center-line shots with Ion Cutelaba — a recipe for eating flash-knees and head kicks from Sterling. Saftic expects the first five minutes to be competitive but predicts Sterling’s range weapons, inside-leg kicks and step-in knees will snowball once the Croatian starts plodding. With Sterling’s money-line already past –300, Saftic prefers KO/TKO at plus money and is sprinkling Round-2 (+400) as the ceiling outcome.

Michael Iurato doubled down on Sterling’s finish equity, calling this "textbook UFC matchmaking for a viral clip." Erslan marches straight forward, rarely cuts angles, and shows no footage of meaningful lateral movement—exactly the profile that lets Sterling set landmines. Iurato loves Sterling’s habit of chaining body-head combinations, switching stance mid-flurry, and never throwing single strikes; against a stationary target, that volume should snowball quickly. He bet Sterling inside-the-distance at –120 and sprinkled the Round-2 prop at +400, predicting a step-in knee or high kick once the Croatian’s guard starts cheating low. Iurato dismissed the underdog’s puncher’s chance, noting Sterling’s 6-0 record already includes several foes with sturdier knock-out resumes than Erslan.

Dan Tom advised betting Aljamain "Navajo" Sterling inside the distance, projecting a round-two or round-three stoppage over Ivan Erslan. Tom highlighted Sterling’s commitment to ripping the body—a weapon Erslan has never really had to defend—and thinks sustained liver shots will melt the Croatian far quicker than the 1.5-round total suggests (under sits at +135). While Erslan looked serviceable on short notice last time, he still plants his feet and offers almost no lateral movement, a dream target for Sterling’s switch-stance kicks and shovel hooks. Because the money-line has ballooned to –310, Tom is bypassing the chalk and taking Sterling KO/TKO around +125 with a hedge on the under 1.5 in case the body work pays off even sooner.