Sean Zerillo prefers Amanda Ribas by Decision at even money instead of laying –190 on her money line. His model prices the decision prop at –130 because the fight is –460 to reach the cards. Zerillo cited Ribas’ size edge (3" height, 5" reach) and superior distance striking— she out-lands opponents by 2.0 significant strikes per minute, while Ricci is –1.7. He expects the bout to stay largely upright where Ribas’ volume and length should sway judges. Betting the decision prop gives plus money exposure to the fighter Zerillo’s data already favors without risking the chalky ML.

Bedtime MMA thinks the UFC is forcing a Tabatha Ricci title push but called her a "mid" strawweight—undersized, limited reach, and not dangerous in any one phase. He highlighted Ribas’ superior offensive grappling, proven striking pop, and the fact she went toe-to-toe with Rose Namajunas. While Ribas can be chinny off her back, Ricci’s lack of finishing threat makes that less concerning. Expecting Ribas to land the cleaner strikes and mix in takedowns, he predicted a clear unanimous decision for the Brazilian.

Monk picked Amanda Ribas to win a decision, citing Tabatha Ricci’s porous strike absorption—5.29 per minute on just 57.8 % defense, ballooning to 6+ in latter rounds. Ribas lands slightly more than Ricci (4+ per minute), absorbs only 3.24, and owns the superior BJJ resume along with better control-time metrics. Monk expects Ribas to mix wrestling and out-work Ricci at range while surviving clinch exchanges. That said, the -350 ‘goes to decision’ line plus Ribas’ modest 96 DK-points-per-win average make her $8.6K salary unattractive. Monk tagged the fight as a “two-star” DFS play, planning minimal exposure and warning that even a clear Ribas victory is unlikely to crack the optimal lineup.

Kunath said Amanda Ribas is a smash-spot tournament play at $8,600 because she carries legitimate finish equity against Tabatha Ricci yet will likely be overlooked. It is the only women’s MMA bout on the Abu Dhabi card, a category that historically comes in under-owned even when it breaks slates. Kunath sees Ricci a step behind everywhere: Ribas should control the tempo on the feet with volume and can threaten submissions if the fight hits the mat. He put Ribas on “finish watch,” calling her ideal single-entry leverage—pivoting off Ricci chalk while leaving salary on the table to create unique builds.