Mont sided with Andreas Gustafsson at $8,400 despite debut jitters, noting the matchup is tailor-made for a knockout. Giles has been finished in six of his seven UFC defeats and now moves into a 180-lb catchweight where Gustafsson’s 10 career KO/TKO victories should translate. Giles’ offense is notoriously low-volume—allowing fewer than 2.5 sig-strikes a minute overall but spiking to nearly 5.0 absorbed in Round 2—leaving him vulnerable once opponents ramp up. Mont expects Gustafsson to pressure early, land the heavier shots, and find a stoppage before cardio questions surface. He will prioritize Gustafsson in GPPs given the –170 ITD line and mid-range salary, while largely avoiding Giles aside from small leverage stacks due to Giles’ tendency to fight at molasses pace when he survives.

Jeff Fox echoed the Gustafsson play, calling Trevin Giles “mediocre at best” and highlighting how poorly Giles’ 0-3 skid aligns with a short-notice weight drop to 180 lbs. Fox added that Giles has been out-wrestled in three of his last four fights and has not recorded a finish since 2019. By contrast, Gustafsson has finished five of his last six by TKO and routinely chains elbows and collar-tie knees once he glues opponents to the fence. Fox framed the –150 number as a bargain for a fighter with measurable advantages in momentum, durability (never finished), and fight-finishing urgency.

Gumby Vreeland hammered Andreas Gustafsson at –150 (now trending even lower) against Trevin Giles, calling it "so many things working in Gustafsson’s favor." He highlighted Gustafsson’s clinch-heavy, grinding style built around elbows and body work, plus reliable takedown defense he has shown both on Dana White’s Contender Series and the European regional scene. With the bout set at a 180-lb catch-weight, Vreeland noted Gustafsson likely walks around near that number while Giles must still cut from 195+ on just a few weeks’ notice, compounding Giles’ well-documented cardio fades. Giles has dropped three straight and has not won since March 2020, whereas Gustafsson rides a 3-fight TKO streak and has never been finished. Vreeland even sprinkled Gustafsson by submission at +800, reasoning that Giles “loves getting tired and sticking his neck where it doesn’t belong,” referencing his third-round guillotine loss to Gerald Meerschaert.

Guru is fading part-time fighter Trevin Giles and picking Swedish newcomer Andreas Gustafsson by knockout. Giles, a Houston police officer, accepted this catch-weight bout on short notice—a spot where he historically looks good early then folds (KO losses to Mike Malott, Dricus du Plessis, and Gerald Meerschaert after winning initial exchanges). Gustafsson, a full-time pro, impressed by mauling his Contender Series opponent with knees and elbows in Round 2 and owns a string of regional finishes. Guru doubts Giles’ durability and conditioning against a relentless clinch grappler; he envisions Gustafsson walking Giles down and ending matters with elbows along the fence.