Matty Betss likes Asu Almabayev by decision at roughly +135. He cited Almabayev’s absurd chain-wrestling pace—nearly 50 takedowns over five UFC bouts—and said opponents rarely stand once he’s on top. Jose Johnson (taking the fight on short notice) surrendered two takedowns and 1:42 of control time to Cody Durden before landing a knockout, suggesting the defensive grappling still leaks. Betss doesn’t fault Almabayev for losing on late notice to Manel Kape, projecting that volume of mat returns against Johnson, but stressed Almabayev does little damage on the floor, which limits finish equity and funnels action to the cards. With the moneyline creeping past −120, the decision prop is Betss’s preferred exposure.

Kunath said Asu Almabayev is his favorite sub-$8K value on DraftKings. Almabayev is now a slight betting favorite despite the $8,000 underdog salary because Jose Ochoa stepped in on short notice. Kunath highlighted Almabayev’s full camp, clear edge in experience and wrestling, and nine-takedown performance against CJ Vergara as proof of a huge DFS ceiling. DraftKings heavily rewards grappling (5 pts per takedown plus control time), so Kunath projected 5-7 takedowns with late-finish upside while still offering a solid decision floor. He framed it as the classic “favorite odds at dog pricing” situation that needs to be jammed into both cash builds and GPPs.