DFS Army advised keeping Bekzat Almakhan exposure light despite his –150 betting tag. Outside of a single knock-down strike against Umar Nurmagomedov, Almakhan has no meaningful UFC sample size, making his statistical profile impossible to trust. The hosts expect him to be over-owned in the mid-8K salary tier where attractive pivots exist. They prefer Katona’s proven durability and wrestling volume, warning that Almakhan could score poorly if he fails to secure an early knockout in what projects as a paced, 15-minute fight.

Gumby Vreeland targeted Underdog Fantasy’s 14.99-minute fight-time line for Bekzat Almukon-Brad Katona and took the lower side at 1.6x. Vreeland reminded listeners that nine of Almukon’s 11 wins are knockouts and that he floored Umar Nurmagomedov on five-days’ notice, proof he carries early finishing power. Katona, meanwhile, has just one KO in 18 pro fights and rarely produces offense that slows opponents down. With Almukon owning a four-inch reach edge, a vicious body-kick game, and Greco throws that can put Katona in danger on the mat, Vreeland expects a stoppage well before the judges get involved, making the "lower than 14.99" prop his favorite bonus play.

Jeff Fox also backed Bekzat Almukon, stressing that Brad Katona’s inability to finish (1 KO in 18 bouts) forces him to stand with a man who owns 9 knockouts and a four-inch reach advantage. Fox noted Almukon floored Umar Nurmagomedov and believes that same power will punish Katona’s point-fighting style. While Katona averages multiple takedowns, Fox doubts the Canadian’s level of wrestling can consistently ground Almukon, whose defensive grappling held up well on short notice against a Nurmagomedov. With Almukon’s danger everywhere and Katona’s decision-heavy tendencies, Fox expects a knockout and still likes the moneyline around –165.

The Weasle said Bekzat Almakhan is a live knockout pick, projecting a finish midway through Round 2. He highlighted Almakhan’s freakish power for a bantamweight, noting that even a grazing right hand floored Umar Nurmagomedov in the Kazakh’s debut – something no one else has done. Almakhan ‘pitches his right hand like a fastball,’ mixes in head-kicks and uppercuts, and still maintains balance despite over-committing. Brad Katona must fight perfectly for 15 minutes, yet film shows Katona is hittable and relies on boxing-wrestling blends that leave him open for timed uppers and overhands. Almakhan is also a competent defensive wrestler, so Weasle expects him to stuff enough double-legs to keep it standing and eventually crack Katona for a KO.

Dan Tom still leans toward Bekzat Almakhan but advised bettors to attack the split-decision market (≈ +600) rather than laying chalk on either side. Tom acknowledged Almakhan’s year of upgrades—Tiger Muay Thai striking reps and American Top Team grappling rounds with Alexandre Pantoja—but expects Katona’s veteran savvy to keep every frame competitive. He sees Almakhan’s speed and in-and-out karate footwork winning the optics while Katona’s clinch advances and top control win the nerd stats, leaving judges to choose their flavor. Given Alberta’s history of 29-28 disagreement, Tom feels a split ticket captures the likely variance and pays better than a straight favorite bet or the over 2.5 rounds that is already juiced to –240.

Gumby Vreeland said Bekzat Almukon should roll past Brad Katona. He pointed to Almukon’s 11-2 record with 9 knockouts and reminded listeners that he even dropped Umar Nurmagomedov on five-days’ notice. Vreeland loves Almukon’s thunderous hooks, body-kick game, and especially his Greco-style body-lock throws, arguing those tools neutralize the Canadian’s grind-heavy approach. Katona is 4-4 in the UFC with only four career finishes, and Vreeland doubts that point-fighting style can survive a four-inch reach deficit and Almukon’s KO power. Given Almukon’s proven chin, plus wrestling that “beats Katona everywhere,” Vreeland believes the Kazakh prospect is worth a wager at the current –165 number.

Dan Tom labeled Bekzat Almakhan a worthy parlay piece at –161, despite acknowledging the line feels like a trap. Historical tape shows Brad Katona fights to his opponent’s level—squeaking split decisions over fringe talents while remaining competitive with better names—but consistently struggles when the other man owns superior athleticism and a dedicated wrestling game. Almakhan checks both boxes: the Kazakh prospect averages 3.9 takedown attempts per 15 minutes, chains doubles into mat returns, and throws heavy overhands off level-change feints. Dan highlighted Almakhan flashing legitimate power when he floored Umar Nurmagomedov on short notice, adding that the SPG-Ireland featherweight’s upright stance leaves him vulnerable to the same counter right hand John Matsumoto landed repeatedly. Katona is durable—never finished—but Dan trusts Alma-khan’s pace, first-move grappling initiative and willingness to swing big in pocket exits to bank the first two rounds and threaten a late finish if Katona’s volume dips under his career 3.3 strikes-landed-per-minute mark. He is pairing the Kazakh with another chalk favorite rather than paying minus money on a 2.5-round over that could get hairy if Almakhan’s power shows up early.

Bedtime MMA said Bekzat Almakhan is a live knockout pick against Brad Katona. He pointed to Almakhan’s four-inch reach edge and the fact that the Kazakh looks like "a bigger bantamweight" who is finally getting a full camp after stepping in on short notice versus Umar Nurmagomedov. Katona, by contrast, "has no finishing ability whatsoever" and habitually tries to grind 29-28 decisions with jab-and-calf-kick volume. The tout expects Katona to need clinch control but eventually be forced into open exchanges where Almakhan’s power shows up. Prediction: Almakhan by TKO inside two rounds.

Guru predicted Bekzat Almakhan will stop Brad Katona. He cited Almakhan’s clear size and physicality edge at bantamweight, pointing to the Kazakh’s power that dropped Umar Nurmagomedov on short notice. Guru called Katona “untalented” and highlighted his lack of finishing ability—just one stoppage in his last seven fights—meaning Almakhan can stay relaxed stuffing takedowns before unleashing heavier leather. Because Almakhan was competitive with top-10 caliber Umar, Guru views this as a step down and expects a mid-fight TKO once Katona realizes he cannot out-grapple or out-strike the stronger prospect.

Guru predicted Bezkat Al-Makhan will stop Brad Katona. He cited Al-Makhan’s clear size and physicality edge at bantamweight, pointing to the Kazakh’s power that dropped Umar Nurmagomedov on short notice. Guru called Katona “untalented” and highlighted his lack of finishing ability—just one stoppage in his last seven fights—meaning Al-Makhan can stay relaxed stuffing takedowns before unleashing heavier leather. Because Al-Makhan was competitive with top-10 caliber Umar, Guru views this as a step down and expects a mid-fight TKO once Katona realizes he cannot out-grapple or out-strike the stronger prospect.