Billy Ward is willing to lay up to −180 on Belal Muhammad, expecting the champion to bank rounds with relentless takedowns and clinch control. Ward pointed to Jack Della Maddalena giving up 7 takedowns to Gilbert Burns and 3 to Bassil Hafez, then needing late rallies to survive, whereas Muhammad rarely offers opponents a moment of offense. He cited Muhammad’s five-round experience, improved boxing that dismantled Sean Brady, and risk-averse game plans that judges reward. Ward hopes public money on the popular underdog drives the price toward −170, but is ready to bet Muhammad straight or via decision, projecting a 48-47 or 49-46 scorecard.

Danny Brasco said he is jumping on Belal Muhammad now that the money-line has crashed to −175 from an opener around −250. Brasco explained that the mere threat of Muhammad’s takedown changes the striking dynamic—once Belal shoots, Jack Della Maddalena’s hands drop and the boxing lanes open for the American. He cited Maddalena’s close calls against Bassil Hafez and Gilbert Burns, noting both exposed JDM’s defensive wrestling and that the Aussie has never been beyond three rounds. By contrast, Muhammad’s cardio is built for five-round grinds and he trains with the same Khabib-style camp that sharpened his chain wrestling. Brasco believes that combination of proven gas tank, stylistic edge, and the market over-correcting toward JDM makes Muhammad a must-bet before the line rebounds.

Josh Nagel is backing Belal Muhammad, insisting bookmakers continue to underrate him just as they did versus Leon Edwards (+190), Stephen Thompson, and Sean Brady. Although Muhammad turns 37 soon, Nagel argued his low-damage, wrestle-heavy style extends prime years. By contrast, he feels Jack Della Maddalena has "danced through raindrops," narrowly edging Bassil Hafez, Kevin Holland, and needing a miracle late KO of Gilbert Burns. Nagel only fears Muhammad’s talk of boxing with JDM; provided he sticks to his trademark blend of speed entries, chain wrestling, and clinch control, Nagel expects another “Remember the Decision” performance and a clear points victory.

Gippers Picks’ best bet is a two-leg parlay: fight over 3.5 rounds and Belal Muhammad money-line at −117 (shop as low as −130). He expects Muhammad to lean heavily on chain-wrestling, citing superior cardio over five rounds and the success Gilbert Burns enjoyed rag-dolling Jack Della Maddalena (JDM). While acknowledging JDM’s boxing can land a scare or two, Gippers believes Muhammad’s chin plus instant takedown response neutralize that risk. With Muhammad’s steady top control and pace, he projects a 48-47 or 49-46 decision, cashing both the over and the ML in one shot.

Danny Vithlani picked Belal Muhammad to win a 48-47 decision, highlighting several championship-caliber intangibles. Muhammad’s relentless cardio, improved Mexican-style pressure boxing and proven five-round durability contrast with Jack Della Maddalena’s inexperience past three rounds. Vithlani stressed that Muhammad’s takedown threat will dampen Della Maddalena’s boxing output and that the challenger has “danced through the raindrops” in narrow wins over Basil Hafez, Kevin Holland and an arm-broken Gilbert Burns. He expects Belal’s chain wrestling and top control to bag at least three rounds and keep the strap in Chicago.

Brian Campbell said Belal Muhammad will retain his welterweight belt by decision. Campbell emphasized Muhammad’s complete skill-set: an Abib Nurmagomedov-polished wrestling game, improved “Canelo hands,” elite cardio and an iron chin that let him thrive in the championship rounds. He contrasted that with Jack Della Maddalena’s elite but largely one-dimensional boxing and noted the challenger’s 14-month layoff and habit of getting dragged into razor-close fights on his climb to the title shot. Campbell thinks those factors, plus Muhammad’s reputation for grinding, five-round consistency, make the champion the right side on the cards.

Michael Bisping doubled-down on his earlier pick but got more specific, telling bettors to target the Belal Muhammad by-decision market. He noted Jack Della Maddalena’s reliance on upper-cut entries and warned that those punches naturally flow into underhooks—exactly the kind of tie-up Muhammad turns into takedowns. Bisping contrasted Gilbert Burns’ failure to keep JDM grounded with Belal’s relentless mat control, pointing out that once Muhammad plants opponents they “struggle to get back up.” He emphasized the champion’s legendary cardio, clean lifestyle (no alcohol, always in the gym) and a career trend: 8 of his last 11 wins have come on the scorecards. Because Muhammad rarely chases risky finishes and judges reward his positional dominance, Bisping believes a five-round grind is the most likely script and sees plus money on the decision prop as the best way to play it.

Bisping forecast Belal Muhammad retaining his welterweight strap by grounding Jack Della Maddalena. He praised Della Maddalena’s seven-fight UFC run and comeback KO of Gilbert Burns but underscored that Burns dominated early with wrestling—the very skill Muhammad excels at. Bisping called Belal’s cardio "endless," his wrestling "top-notch," and noted the champion’s lifestyle: no drinking, always in the gym. Echoing Teddy Atlas, he said champions become "30 percent better overnight" and believes Muhammad will secure repeat takedowns, deny scrambles, and turn Della Maddalena’s boxing angles into underhooks and mat time. Recommendation: back Muhammad, especially by decision or late finish.

Matty Betss picked Belal Muhammad to win the five-round main event. Betss argued that Muhammad is the quicker striker, owns the superior wrestling pedigree, and carries the much deeper gas tank, a combination he believes will tell over 25 minutes. He pointed out that Jack Della Maddalena has never fought a UFC five-rounder and has been vulnerable in extended grappling sequences, citing Gilbert Burns winning the first two rounds and landing dominant grappling positions before getting finished. Betss acknowledged JDM’s knockout power—Muhammad’s only UFC losses came to heavy punchers Vicente Luque and Geoff Neal—but still trusts Belal’s pressure, improved boxing, and cardio to neutralize those big shots and grind out a win.

DFS Army called Belal Muhammad a "core play" at $8,700, citing a well-rounded profile perfect for a five-round slate breaker. Muhammad averages 4.2–4.5 significant strikes per minute "extremely consistently through all five rounds" while mixing 0.5–1.0 takedowns per five minutes and piling up control time that approaches two minutes in later rounds. His gas tank is elite, whereas Jack Della Maddalena has never entered a fourth round in his career and was taken down three times by short-notice debutant Bassil Hafez. The hosts stressed that if Hafez can control Della, Muhammad’s pressure wrestling should be overwhelming. They also noted that the fight is –160 to reach the cards, amplifying Belal’s per-minute scoring edge. Although Della lands 7.3 sig. strikes per minute, his scoring falls off outside the first round—83 DK points vs Hafez and just 77 vs Randy Brown—making a late-fight comeback unlikely if Belal’s wrestling kicks in. The touts will sprinkle some Della KO exposure in large-field GPPs but plan to be "all in" on Muhammad across formats, projecting 120-plus DK points if he lands five or more takedowns.

Although Betss favors Maddalena overall, he advised tiny hedges on Belal Muhammad round-3, round-4 and round-5 KO/TKO tickets that sit between 40-1 and 60-1. He argued that Muhammad’s style— nonstop pressure and cardio built for 25 minutes— makes late attritional finishes more plausible than the market implies. Betss pointed to Muhammad’s stoppage of Sean Brady, a similar pressure-driven accumulation that forced the ref to step in without a knock-down, and stressed that long five-round title fights create injury or doctor-stoppage paths that inflate the true probability above the implied 2% price. Because JDM has never seen championship rounds in the UFC and routinely absorbs body kicks while chasing the pocket, Betss believes a fatigue-based wave-off or cut stoppage in rounds 3-5 is live enough to justify the lotto-ticket sprinkles.

Georges St. Pierre said Belal Muhammad is the clear side of this matchup despite the –190 price tag. He called Muhammad "very well-rounded" but emphasized the specific edges that matter at the window: a sizable wrestling/takedown advantage, relentless forward pressure that forces opponents onto their heels, and elite cage-clinch work that allows him to grind along the fence. GSP added that Muhammad has “more ways to win” than Jack Della Maddalena, who essentially needs to land a clean counter as Belal shoots or crashes distance. In GSP’s view, if Muhammad keeps chaining takedowns and walks JDM back to the fence the way he usually does, he should justify favoritism and possibly look dominant.

Welch forecasted that Belal Muhammad will retain the welterweight title by decision over Jack Della Maddalena. He highlighted Muhammad’s relentless pressure, high fight IQ, and versatile wrestling/boxing blend. Muhammad’s resume—wins over Leon Edwards, Gilbert Burns, Sean Brady, Vicente Luque, and Stephen Thompson—demonstrates his ability to out-point elite opponents. Welch believes Muhammad will replicate that blueprint here: constant forward pressure, repeated takedown attempts, and clinch control that smothers Jack’s boxing and steals rounds on the judges’ cards.

Tim Welch said he is hitting the PrizePicks prop that asks for more than 4.0 takedowns from Belal Muhammad in the UFC 315 title fight. Welch argued that Belal’s only smart path is heavy wrestling – he will not hang around in a pure boxing match with Jack Della Maddalena, whose best chance is to box. With 25 full minutes to work, Welch expects Muhammad to relentlessly chain-wrestle, sap Jack’s gas tank, and clear the 4-takedown mark the same way he did against Leon Edwards, Vicente Luque and Gilbert Burns. The pressure-first style, cardio, and historically elite control numbers make the over an easy bet in Welch’s eyes.

Although Betss favors Maddalena overall, he advised tiny hedges on Belal Muhammad round-3, round-4 and round-5 KO/TKO tickets that sit between 40-1 and 60-1. He argued that Muhammad’s style— nonstop pressure and cardio built for 25 minutes— makes late attritional finishes more plausible than the market implies. Betss pointed to Muhammad’s stoppage of Sean Brady, a similar pressure-driven accumulation that forced the ref to step in without a knock-down, and stressed that long five-round title fights create injury or doctor-stoppage paths that inflate the true probability above the implied 2% price. Because JDM has never seen championship rounds in the UFC and routinely absorbs body kicks while chasing the pocket, Betss believes a fatigue-based wave-off or cut stoppage in rounds 3-5 is live enough to justify the lotto-ticket sprinkles.

Georges St. Pierre said Belal Muhammad is the clear side of this matchup despite the –190 price tag. He called Muhammad "very well-rounded" but emphasized the specific edges that matter at the window: a sizable wrestling/takedown advantage, relentless forward pressure that forces opponents onto their heels, and elite cage-clinch work that allows him to grind along the fence. GSP added that Muhammad has “more ways to win” than Jack Della Maddalena, who essentially needs to land a clean counter as Belal shoots or crashes distance. In GSP’s view, if Muhammad keeps chaining takedowns and walks JDM back to the fence the way he usually does, he should justify favoritism and possibly look dominant.

Welch forecasted that Belal Muhammad will retain the welterweight title by decision over Jack Della Maddalena. He highlighted Muhammad’s relentless pressure, high fight IQ, and versatile wrestling/boxing blend. Muhammad’s resume—wins over Leon Edwards, Gilbert Burns, Sean Brady, Vicente Luque, and Stephen Thompson—demonstrates his ability to out-point elite opponents. Welch believes Muhammad will replicate that blueprint here: constant forward pressure, repeated takedown attempts, and clinch control that smothers Jack’s boxing and steals rounds on the judges’ cards.

Tim Welch said he is hitting the PrizePicks prop that asks for more than 4.0 takedowns from Belal Muhammad in the UFC 315 title fight. Welch argued that Belal’s only smart path is heavy wrestling – he will not hang around in a pure boxing match with Jack Della Maddalena, whose best chance is to box. With 25 full minutes to work, Welch expects Muhammad to relentlessly chain-wrestle, sap Jack’s gas tank, and clear the 4-takedown mark the same way he did against Leon Edwards, Vicente Luque and Gilbert Burns. The pressure-first style, cardio, and historically elite control numbers make the over an easy bet in Welch’s eyes.

The Weasle expects Belal Muhammad to retain his welterweight crown via grinding decision over Jack Della Maddalena. Jack is arguably the best pure boxer at 170—lightning counters, sharp reflexes—but his takedown defense has looked mortal against Gilbert Burns and Bassil Hafez. The Weasle noted two caveats: Della broke an arm against Burns and cut weight twice for Hafez, making those wrestling lapses hard to grade. Even so, Belal is the division’s premier fence wrestler, excels at cutting the cage with jab-into-double-leg sequences, and carries a five-round gas tank. Jack’s underhook-based scrambles will win some separations, and The Weasle thinks he stuffs a handful of shots, yet Belal’s relentless chain wrestling and top control should secure 3-4 rounds. At current odds of roughly –200, Muhammad by decision or simply money-line is the recommended play, with awareness that any clean break in space keeps Jack’s knockout threat live.

Cody Saftic, a long-time Belal skeptic, is siding with Muhammad for once because the number crashed from –200 to –160 during fight week. Saftic admits JDM’s 15-fight win streak and highlight-reel boxing tempted the market, but he still sees the same cardio and wrestling gaps that Basil Hafez exposed. Expect Belal to ignore knockout talk, spam takedowns, and lean on clinch control—exactly the approach that has burned Saftic’s bankroll in the past. He believes the cheaper price finally offers value on the champion’s minute-winning style.

Michael Iurato advised laying –160 on Belal Muhammad by decision, arguing that the Habib-led camp unlocked another gear in Belal’s wrestling. Iurato loves Jack Della Maddalena’s long-range boxing, switch-stance combos, and butterfly guard but pointed to two recent bouts as the path of least resistance: Basil Hafez repeatedly grounded JDM in the first two rounds and Gilbert Burns went 6-of-10 on takedowns before fading. Iurato expects Belal—who now shoots with far more conviction, chains high-crotches, and ‘wins minutes’—to rinse-and-repeat that blueprint for 25 minutes. He does not buy Belal’s KO talk, saying a pure striking match would be disastrous, so the champion will mix levels, ride top, and drain clock for a clear scorecard win.

Dan Tom said to back Belal Muhammad by decision at roughly –161 because the champion is the best game-planner in any weight class right now and refuses to give opponents the fight they want. Tom acknowledged Jack Della Maddalena is a live dog thanks to a switch-stance boxing attack and a Southpaw left hand that has historically bothered Belal (Tom cited the Luque left hook and Leon Edwards’ early success). Even so, Tom trusts Belal’s 6-2-1 record in five-rounders, his willingness to stick to a jab-and-level-change blueprint, and his proven durability in late-night, short-notice situations. With the total set at 4.5 rounds (Over –200), Tom expects 25 full minutes of Belal top-control and fence-pushing that secures a judges’ nod while avoiding the Australian’s pocket exchanges.

Millz Young backed Belal Muhammad to defend his title by decision after his line slid from ‑220 to about ‑200. He called Muhammad the most complete fighter in the matchup: elite cardio, serviceable boxing, and a grinding wrestling game that has fueled his long win streak. Millz noted that Jack Della Maddalena’s slick high-low boxing is fun to watch but masks a glaring weakness—he has been taken down and controlled by far lesser wrestlers than Muhammad. Because Muhammad can push pace for 25 minutes and rack up top-control time, Millz views the decision prop as the sharp angle and also suggested using Muhammad as a parlay anchor with Jasudavicius for bettors comfortable laying chalk.

Jon Anik said he actually expects Belal Muhammad to secure a rare finish in his first title defence at UFC 315. Anik acknowledged that Muhammad has built his résumé on grinding five-round decisions, yet pointed to several factors that make a stoppage plausible here: (1) Muhammad’s cardio and chain-wrestling have given opponents almost no room to breathe over 25 minutes, and Jack Della Maddalena has never dealt with that kind of sustained top pressure at this level; (2) the champion’s ground-and-pound has quietly improved—he bludgeoned Gilbert Burns late and nearly got him out of there before the shoulder injury; (3) Della Maddalena is walking straight into a stylistic clash after a year-long layoff and a 10,000-mile trip from Perth to Montreal, which could exacerbate any defensive grappling lapses; and (4) Muhammad is 35 and openly motivated to make statement finishes to keep pace in a suddenly log-jammed welterweight division. Anik concluded that, even though the betting market still prices a Muhammad decision as the most likely outcome, there is value in props that pay off if Belal closes the show inside the distance.

Bedtime MMA said he would "guarantee" Belal Muhammad shoots for a double-leg inside the first 60 seconds against Jack Della Maddalena at UFC 315. The tout noted Muhammad’s long-standing habit of talking up his boxing all week—claiming he out-struck Leon Edwards and carries Canelo-level hands—only to abandon those promises and lean on his wrestling as soon as the fight begins. Citing similar quick level-changes in the Sean Brady bout, Bedtime believes an early takedown attempt is virtually automatic and presents a valuable prop-bet angle for anyone looking to wager on the opening minute of the main event.