Sean Zerillo said he grabbed Beneil Dariush at +118 early in the week and would still lay up to –115 now. Zerillo’s core angle is that Dariush only loses to single-shot knockout artists—his last three defeats came via first-round bombs from Arman Tsarukyan, Charles Oliveira and Alexander Hernandez—while Renato Moicano owns just one UFC knockdown and none since moving to lightweight. With Moicano unlikely to find that chin-checking moment, Zerillo expects Dariush’s elite wrestling (3.7 takedowns per 15 minutes) to bank rounds just as Islam Makhachev and Rafael dos Anjos did against Moicano. He is pairing the money-line with time props such as Dariush & Over 1.5, Dariush Round 3/Decision, and even simple fight overs, arguing the only fast finish scenario is a low-probability Moicano KO. Zerillo views the archetype matchup as perfect for Dariush and is comfortable stacking ML tickets with moderate-length overs to juice the payout.

Sean Zerillo and Billy Ward made Beneil Dariush their co-signed best bet, recommending Dariush down to –115 and Fight Goes to Decision at plus money (+110). Zerillo projects the fight 60% to see the cards, citing that both 36-year-olds average exactly one significant strike landed per minute at distance, neutralizing each other on the feet. He gives Moicano the cleaner boxing and better pure BJJ but says Dariush’s 3.7 takedowns per 15 minutes and 82% top-control rate make him the more proactive wrestler and the man likelier to bank rounds with positional dominance. Both fighters have shown chin concerns lately, yet Zerillo believes they cancel out because neither carries one-shot power at this stage. A wrestling-heavy, grinding battle should tilt the judges toward Dariush while cashing the decision line for bettors.

Tim Welch advised playing the PrizePicks Over 11-minute fight-time square for Beneil Dariush-Renato Moicano. Welch noted that both men are high-level black-belt grapplers who can box, which usually produces longer feeling-out stretches rather than a frantic scramble. He does not see Moicano submitting Dariush early—Dariush has never been tapped in the UFC—and he doubts Moicano has the pure power to ice Benny in the opening rounds. Because neither fighter relies on wild exchanges and both are comfortable trading positions, Welch expects the bout to grind well into the second round before a finish is even on the table, making the 11-minute threshold a solid over bet.

Bisping leaned toward Beneil Dariush, projecting either a three-round decision or a late submission. He acknowledged both men are 36-year-old grappling specialists, but argued Dariush owns the stronger resume: an eight-fight UFC win streak prior to back-to-back first-round losses against Arman Tsarukyan and Charles Oliveira, plus victories over Mateusz Gamrot and Tony Ferguson. Moicano, meanwhile, was choked out by Islam Makhachev on short notice and has feasted on lower-tier opposition despite a recent four-fight streak. Bisping expects Dariush’s south-paw kickboxing and chain wrestling to bank early control time, then threaten subs once Moicano tires, making Dariush money-line or Dariush-by-sub a viable bet although he cautioned the matchup is the night’s tightest.

Madlab Michael Lurato doubled down on his earlier dog stance and drilled into a specific finishing angle: Dariush’s south-paw body kick. Lurato noted that Dan Tom’s own south-paw study shows Moicano is just 3-2 versus lefties and has been badly hurt to the body in every one of those fights—yet still won two simply because the opponent never followed up. Dariush, by contrast, fires the liver kick in combination and will pour on ground-and-pound if Moicano crumples. Madlab also dismissed one-punch knockout risk, pointing out Moicano’s 0.25 knockdowns per 15 minutes ranks in the bottom third of the division. With both men likely to respect each other’s grappling and strike more than expected, he sees a clear path to a standing finish and prefers the Dariush KO/TKO prop (available around +400) to the straight money-line that has already been steamed.

Madlab Michael Lurato advised grabbing Beneil Dariush at the current +100 price in what he described as a near mirror-match. Lurato conceded Renato Moicano’s recent surge and sticky top control but questioned his cage IQ—citing the Brian Ortega loss where Moicano jumped into guard moments before the bell—and reminded listeners that Moicano has been clipped and finished multiple times. Conversely, he labeled Dariush’s southpaw boxing ‘criminally underrated’ and rated the Iranian’s BJJ and positional grappling a tier above Moicano’s. Because both men prefer to wrestle off their strikes, Lurato expects prolonged mat exchanges where Dariush’s tighter transitions and more aggressive submission hunting will separate him. With the total set at 2.5 rounds at pick’em juice, Lurato prefers the even-money dog shot on the fighter he views as the more durable and technically sound grappler instead of laying ‑120 on someone prone to disastrous split-second decisions.

For Dariush-Moicano, Brian Campbell prefers the fight-to-go-the-distance prop at +120 instead of picking a side. He argued that Dariush, 36, enters with career urgency after back-to-back stoppage losses and reportedly had his best camp in years, suggesting a wrestle-heavy, risk-averse game plan to preserve his spot in the lightweight top 10. Moicano, 35, is also coming off a humbling short-notice title loss to Islam Makhachev and may dial back his usual aggression. Campbell expects Dariush’s elite scrambling and defensive grappling to neutralize Moicano’s submission threat, turning the matchup into a competitive but cautious striking affair between two seasoned vets whose chins, while not invincible, should survive 15 minutes. He’s betting pride, durability, and stylistic parity produce judges’ scorecards rather than another finish.

Monk pivoted to Beneil Dariush once DraftKings salaries posted, explaining that a bout he grades as 50-50 should have you siding with the cheaper fighter. Dariush comes in at $7,800 versus Renato Moicano’s $8,400, giving GPP players instant lineup flexibility. Monk ran through the numbers: Dariush owns an 82 % control-time share in his UFC grappling exchanges and stuffs 81 % of takedowns, compared with Moicano’s 66 % control share and 71 % takedown defense. Even more important for DFS scoring, Dariush’s ground dominance snowballs—he averages almost two minutes of top control in Round 1 and “well over” that in the second and third. Meanwhile Moicano’s takedown and control stats decline as his striking pace rises, creating late-fight opportunities for Benny to rack up mat time and advances. Monk will be “majority overweight” on Dariush, still stacking some Moicano because the fight is –135 Inside-the-Distance, but believes Dariush’s combo of control upside and bargain price makes him one of the slate’s best leverage plays.