Gippers Picks’ favorite wager is a two-leg parlay that both Brad Katona’s bout and the Valentina Shevchenko vs Manon Fiorot title fight reach the judges, paying roughly plus money depending on the shop. He called Katona a "tough son of a bitch" who has repeatedly cashed his alternate-over tickets because he keeps plowing forward even when he is getting pieced up. On the co-main, Gippers expects a 25-minute technical kick-boxing match: Shevchenko and Fiorot are both durable, calculated, and unlikely to attempt low-percentage submissions. The only caveat, he said, is freak injuries—six of his parlays this year have died that way—but he still grades these two matchups as the highest-probability distance props on the entire UFC 315 slate and would not bother hedging.

DFS Army said Brad Katona is their preferred DraftKings play at just $7,600. Katona has never been finished in his pro career and averages 4.5–5.0 significant strikes per minute while mixing in takedowns and control time every round. His all-around offensive metrics—striking accuracy, takedown rate, and top-position control—grade well above divisional averages, giving him multiple scoring paths. Bekzat Amakan is favored largely because he knocked down Umar Nurmagomedov on short notice, yet there is almost no other UFC data on him. With the fight –285 to go the distance, Katona’s durability provides a solid floor, and his well-rounded skill set adds GPP ceiling if he can rack up takedowns or land volume over three rounds.

Matty Betss sees a buy-low opportunity on Brad Katona by decision despite the modest +130 money-line. Katona offers reliable cardio, durability and a willingness to mix takedowns, attributes Betss believes translate into a 29-28 type of scorecard against an opponent whose public perception is inflated after scoring a single knock-down on Umar Nurmagomedov while still losing every other minute (Umar 30-27’d him). Betss thinks that highlight splash masks the lack of high-level footage on the opponent, who profiles as KO-or-bust and carries less minute-winning equity. Because Katona’s ceiling is a close decision, Betss prefers Katona by decision in the +225 range or even a small sprinkle on split-decision props rather than taking the straight dog price.

Matty Betss sees a buy-low opportunity on Brad Katona by decision despite the modest +130 money-line. Katona offers reliable cardio, durability and a willingness to mix takedowns, attributes Betss believes translate into a 29-28 type of scorecard against an opponent whose public perception is inflated after scoring a single knock-down on Umar Nurmagomedov while still losing every other minute (Umar 30-27’d him). Betss thinks that highlight splash masks the lack of high-level footage on the opponent, who profiles as KO-or-bust and carries less minute-winning equity. Because Katona’s ceiling is a close decision, Betss prefers Katona by decision in the +225 range or even a small sprinkle on split-decision props rather than taking the straight dog price.

Michael Iurato backed Brad Katona at +158, citing a clear wrestling path and Almakhan’s shaky chin. Re-watching tape, Iurato saw Almakhan dropped in round one of two of his last three fights and controlled for long stretches once grounded. Katona, meanwhile, has never been knocked out and has held his own against elite chain wrestlers like Merab Dvalishvili. Iurato believes Katona’s southpaw jab will force overeager entries from Almakhan, opening easy level changes and mat returns. With nine of Katona’s eleven pro wins coming via decision, Madlab is focusing on the decision prop (+200) but will have some exposure to money-line in case judges lean toward top control. He tagged this as the best dog number on the card to open parlays or bankroll building.

Cody Saftic also sided with Brad Katona, calling the plus-money line a classic dog-or-pass spot. Saftic argued that Almakhan’s stock is inflated by landing three total significant strikes on Umar—one knock-down and two glancing blows—before being mauled on the mat. He questioned the Kazakh’s get-up game and cardio, noting Katona’s third-round surge versus Garrett Armfield after he finally committed to takedowns. Saftic expects the SBG-Ireland product to fight smarter this time: probe with his amateur-boxing jab, duck under the first wild exchange, and chain wrestle to 2–3 minutes of top control per round. Katona’s black-belt grappling and 100 percent UFC durability rate make a late finish unlikely, so Cody is targeting Katona by decision (+225) and will add live if Almakhan’s early burst does not produce a 10-8. He warned the fight could be scored 30-27 Almakhan or 29-28 Katona, calling the split-decision prop a logical hedge.

Paul Shaughnessy said he already grabbed Brad Katona at +158 and still likes the underdog anywhere north of +150. Shaughnessy trusts Katona’s resume—Ultimate Fighter winner twice, 15 hard rounds against Marab Dvalishvili and Rob Font—to trump Bekzat Almakhan’s flash knock-down of Umar Nurmagomedov, a moment he called “one highlight in an otherwise lopsided loss.” Tape showed Almakhan getting dropped in two of his last three regional bouts and surrendering extended top control once grounded. Shaughnessy expects Katona’s boxing-into-double-leg rhythm to expose that get-up weakness, rack up clinch time, and turn the Canadian crowd in his favor. Because Katona has never been finished and eight of his last nine fights hit the scorecards, Paul prefers money-line plus a sprinkle on the split-decision prop—judges in Canada have rewarded damage optics over control before and a 29-28 either way would not surprise him.

Millz Young said to back Brad Katona as an underdog because the matchup is probably much tighter than the opening line suggests. Bekzat Almakhan looked dangerous early against Umar Nurmagomedov but was completely dominated once the fight hit the mat, even suffering a 10-8 on one judge’s scorecard. Katona has only four UFC losses, all by unanimous decision, so he is difficult to put away, and Millz thinks the Canadian crowd plus a ‘back-against-the-wall’ narrative will bring extra grit out of him. Katona’s adequate boxing combined with a willingness to mix in some wrestling could sway close rounds, so Millz is grabbing the dog money line rather than laying juice on a favorite with clear cardio issues.

Kunath loves the dog price on two-time Ultimate Fighter winner Brad Katona. He argued Bexat Olma Khan’s highlight-reel knockdown of Umar Nurmagomedov lingers in bettors’ memories, masking how completely he was dominated—zero strikes in Round 2 and only one in Round 3 while giving up five takedowns and nearly 12 minutes of control. Olma Khan relies almost exclusively on knockout power; Katona has never been dropped in the UFC and routinely lands multiple takedowns per fight. Kunath noted Katona will have the Canadian crowd and potential "home cooking" in close rounds, further boosting his decision equity. Given Olma Khan’s year-long layoff and suspect defensive grappling, Kunath sees Katona blanketing him, racking up top time and short strikes to cruise on the cards. Recommendation: Katona money-line at +150 or better, plus Katona by decision for a bigger payout.