Kunath is fading Dustin Jacoby and taking underdog Bruno Lopes to win by submission. Jacoby’s technical kickboxing, long jab and leg kicks work at range, but Lopes thrives in the clinch and on the mat—areas where Jacoby historically struggles. The smaller APEX cage favors clinch entries, and Lopes already showed he can out-grind Magomed Ankalaev–style wrestlers when he upset Magomed Gadzhi-Azizov earlier this year. Jacoby is also a ‘rise to the occasion’ fighter: over his last seven bouts he is 3-4, winning only as an underdog and losing every time the market made him favorite. At nearly –200, Jacoby is overpriced. Kunath expects Lopes to close distance, muscle Jacoby against the fence, drag him down and find a choke. Bet the money-line dog, sprinkle Lopes-by-submission for a bigger score.