Billy Ward mapped out a two-stage approach for the Kattar-Garcia fight. Pre-fight he risked 0.6 units on Steve Garcia’s moneyline and 0.4 units on Garcia by knockout at +210 because one book is 50 cents off the market consensus of +165. Ward believes Garcia is largely finish-or-bust: the underdog will blitz early, force Kattar to retreat, and either find the KO or gas himself out. If that early storm pushes the live price on Calvin Kattar north of +200, Ward plans to fire another 0.5-unit bet on Kattar. His reasoning: once the veteran survives the first five minutes, Kattar’s superior boxing fundamentals, five-round experience, and historically reliable cardio make him the “clear A-side.” The strategy effectively free-rolls a Garcia finish while leaving plenty of equity on a Kattar decision if the bout settles into longer exchanges.

Sean Zerillo bet Calvin Kattar at –110 (playable to –120) and paired him with Fight-Goes-the-Distance at +190 in a same-game parlay. Zerillo’s model makes Kattar –120 straight and prices GTD at –114, so the combo creates what he views as a +EV correlated play: Kattar wins a decision roughly one-third of the time. The logic: Kattar has never been knocked down in 17 UFC bouts, owns superior pocket boxing and a more varied striking arsenal, and carries unexpected takedown upside (he used early top control to beat Giga Chikadze and could duplicate that against Garcia, who has surrendered 3+ minutes of control in multiple fights). Garcia is riding five straight KOs, a streak Zerillo believes is inflating his market price and due for regression. He also pointed to Garcia’s knockdowns versus Maheshate and Shayilan, evidence the taller fighter’s chin is less bankable than Kattar’s. Given the stylistic expectation of a phone-booth boxing match with limited ground exchanges, Zerillo sees Kattar’s durability and potential wrestling as the tiebreakers in a fight he projects to reach the cards over 54% of the time.

Kunath sees value on slight underdog Calvin Kattar, noting the New Englander is notoriously hard to knock out and tends to build momentum the longer a bout goes. He expects Garcia’s knockout threat to fade rapidly after Round 1, while Kattar’s cardio and volume climb. Kattar also holds the backup plan of offensive wrestling, something Garcia rarely shows. Because Garcia’s wins came over the likes of Shayilan Nuerdanbieke, Chase Hooper, and Kyle Nelson—none on Kattar’s level—Kunath projects Kattar to win R2 and R3 or edge a decision at plus money.

Michael Lurato warned listeners that Calvin Kattar was never the same after absorbing a record 445 significant strikes from Max Holloway. Citing his boxing-obsessed grandfather’s maxim that a fighter "leaves a piece of himself in the cage" after a historic drubbing, Lurato argued that Kattar’s legendary chin has quietly eroded and that bettors should be wary of relying on his traditional durability. With Kattar only a slight +105 underdog yet coming off multiple injuries and a clear accumulation of damage, Lurato implied the value now sits on the younger, more explosive favorite and that the under 1.5 rounds (+130) is live if Kattar finally collapses early.

Bedtime MMA doubled-down on Calvin Kattar winning a 29-28 decision over Steve Garcia but added a new wrinkle: Kattar is now working with Firas Zahabi. The tout believes that pairing will sharpen Kattar’s already slick counter-boxing and help him make the mid-fight adjustments Zahabi is famous for. He still expects Kattar to drop the opening round—possibly getting rocked—because Garcia will charge forward throwing hooks, yet he trusts Kattar’s proven chin (never cleanly knocked out) to hold up. From round two on, Bedtime anticipates Kattar circling, intercepting entries with elbows and jabs, and gradually walking a tiring Garcia down. He noted Garcia’s cardio fade and the fact that Garcia’s last KO came off a questionable back-of-the-head shot, calling those results “favorable match-ups.” With reach, technique, and Zahabi’s game-planning in his pocket, Kattar is projected to bag the last two rounds and the judges’ nod.

Bedtime MMA sided with Calvin Kattar despite the veteran’s recent skid, forecasting either a clear decision or late stoppage after weathering Steve Garcia’s round-one blitz. He likened Garcia to a featherweight Sergei Pavlovich—dangerous early but technically crude and reliant on wild hooks. Kattar, though aging, has only lost to elite names and has never been iced early; his jab, counter elbows and airtight takedown defense usually keep him safe while he downloads reads. The tout expects Kattar to start slow, stick the jab, make Garcia miss, then gradually turn up volume as Garcia’s cardio dips. Unless Garcia scores a flash KO in the first five minutes, Bedtime MMA believes Kattar systematically "snaps his head back" the rest of the fight and cruises on the cards.