Dan Tom is taking a flyer on underdog Chris Duncan and will only bet once he can secure a juicier price, but he is officially picking Duncan to spring the upset. Tom’s angle: Rebecki is a pressure-fighting southpaw who is hard-wired to shoot takedowns to his own left side, the exact side on which Duncan finishes every one of his guillotines (similar to Charles Oliveira’s right-hand stance / left-side choke dynamic). Duncan has been sparring countless southpaws, is throwing more orthodox-to-southpaw kicking combinations, and owns raw athletic strength from his work at American Top Team. Tom worries that Rebecki has absorbed "unnecessary damage and pacing risks" in his last two outings; eventually that durability erodes. The expected path: Duncan rocks Rebecki on the feet, forces a desperation shot, and cinches a fight-ending guillotine. Because he admits the favorite is skilled, Tom wants a better money-line before betting, but the pick is Duncan ITD for plus-money bettors and DFS dart throws.