Matty Betss flagged the 18-to-1 submission price on Connor Matthews as the wildest number on the card. Matthews owns five submissions in seven pro victories and three tap-outs in his last seven outings, yet books have him a longer shot to grapple Yadier Medeiros (debut) than to land a KO. Betss believes that makes no sense given Matthews’ style—constant forward pressure, one-track mind to clinch, drag opponents down, and hunt chokes. Medeiros is the cleaner striker and could flash power, but he has never been tested against this level of physical grinder. Betss expects violent swings either way and is already betting the fight Under 2.5 at –110. He will sprinkle the 18-1 Matthews submission as a pure numbers play, noting that debutante match-ups frequently blow up bookmaker algorithms.