Billy Ward prefers attacking Davey Grant in DraftKings’ Decision-Only market (+215) or by Decision outright because of Blackshear’s high-variance submission hunting. Ward noted Blackshear will happily roll for twisters or give up position chasing subs, which wins highlights but not rounds. If Blackshear does snag a tap, the decision-only wager refunds; otherwise Ward expects Grant’s minute-winning boxing and knockout threat to impress judges. He passed on the +3.5 spread (+120) for the same reason— a submission loss kills that ticket— and sees the decision-only play as the cleanest way to back the 39-year-old while limiting downside.

Sean Zerillo called Davey Grant his "favorite underdog this week" at +295 and said he would bet the Englishman down to +250 because his model makes the fight a virtual coin-flip (+228 implied). Zerillo believes Grant has been on the wrong end of two robberies (Daniel Marcos and Adrian Yanez) and even hung tight with Chito Vera, so the market is underrating him. He expects Blackshear to have the submission upside, but if the American cannot stick takedowns, striking exchanges become 50/50 where Grant owns the superior knockout power. Zerillo also likes the "goes to decision" prop at even money (would play to –125) because both men are durable and Black­shear’s grappling style extends fights. He plans to split his action between Grant ML and the GTD prop to capture value on either a Grant upset or another tight scorecard.