Billy Ward plans to start with a 0.25-unit wager on Figueiredo at +430 and then pivot to a live Sandhagen bet once the former flyweight champion’s gas tank starts to fade. Ward reminded listeners that Figgy’s power is still real—he is the only man to drop Marlon "Chito" Vera in 24 UFC bouts—and added that Figueiredo owns some early grappling upside against Sandhagen’s middling 63 % takedown defense. However, wrestling is energy-intensive and Sandhagen’s length and pace generally take over after Round 1, so Ward wants an in-fight entry when the line on the favorite improves. The paired approach lets bettors capture Figgy’s early danger while still siding with Sandhagen’s superior late-fight cardio.

Sniper advised coming in well underweight on Deiveson Figueiredo because the former flyweight champ simply does not score in extended fights. He rattled off the ugly DraftKings history: 0.9 points per minute in the first Brandon Moreno title fight, 1.5 in the rematch, barely 2.0 in the trilogy bout, and exactly 1.0 per minute before the quick sub of Alex Perez. Even at a bargain-basement $6,800, those per-minute numbers translate to 55–60 DK points in a full 25-minute loss—nowhere near the 10× return most underdogs need to swing GPPs. Sniper added that Sandhagen has quietly patched his wrestling holes, which should make it even harder for Figgy to create the high-impact moments that juice fantasy scoring. Because the card offers several other live dogs with grappling paths, Sniper will either run solo Sandhagen shares or fade the main-event stack entirely in cash games, limiting Figueiredo exposure to a few “just-in-case” lineups.