Matty Betss locked in Denise Gomes by submission at +500 as the opening leg of his Cycle Parlay. He acknowledged that Gomes has zero subs on her record but pointed out she has attempted a submission in each of her last two fights against far better defensive grapplers than Elise Reed. Reed has been finished in two of her last four bouts and was subbed by Lupita Godinez inside two rounds, signaling a clear path for Gomes on the mat. Betss thinks the +500 price ignores those defensive holes and believes Gomes’ increasing willingness to hunt for chokes/armbars makes this the week she notches her first tap-out victory.

Billy Ward grabbed Denise Gomes inside-the-distance at +150 even though her moneyline has ballooned past ‑600. Ward pointed out Elise Reed is 4-4 in the UFC and has been finished in all four defeats. Gomes owns a massive grappling edge—Ward said she “could dominate on the mat whenever she chooses”—yet is also the far quicker striker after scoring back-to-back knockout wins. That dual finish equity makes the plus-money price a standout. Ward conceded Gomes sometimes falls in love with her hands, but added that a stand-up knockout is still live because Reed’s striking defense sits at just 46%. He projected the true inside-the-distance number at roughly ‑120, giving bettors a double-digit percentage edge.

Jim Malaro has flipped his stance and now likes Denise Gomes inside the distance. Reed has been stopped in five of six defeats – choked by Lupita Godinez, clubbed by Sam Hughes, and generally folds whenever an opponent can grapple. Malaro praised Gomes’ clinch elbows, dirty boxing and willingness to mix in takedowns, predicting Reed will be bullied to the fence, cut open, and either ground-and-pounded or submitted. With Gomes needing a statement after the Angela Hill loss, Malaro thinks the finish prop is the smartest way to attack this matchup.

Matty Betss pivoted from the generic inside-the-distance play to a straight submission ticket on Denise Gomes at +500. He pointed out that Gomes ITD has been hammered down to +150 while the KO number is only slightly longer, yet the sub price remains five-to-one despite clear tape of Gomes hunting chokes. Betss reminded listeners that Gomes had Eduarda Mora flailing in a deep guillotine during round one and routinely looks to wrap the neck whenever forward pressure forces clinch exchanges. Because Elise Reed has been finished in every UFC loss and owns porous defensive wrestling, Betss expects Gomes to create multiple grappling entries. He added that books consistently leave value on fighters seeking their first Octagon submission, making +500 worth a dedicated sprinkle rather than the watered-down ITD line.

Matty Betss recommended betting Denise Gomes inside the distance rather than laying –500 on her moneyline against Elise Reed. Gomes’ striking has become far more composed and technical, yet she can still flip the brawler switch and now mixes in clinch takedowns and submission attempts. Reed is 4-4 in the UFC, lacks stopping power, and every one of her losses has come via finish—two knockouts and two submissions. Betss also pointed out Gomes’ 30-27 domination of highly-touted prospect Eduarda Moura as evidence of her evolving all-around game. With Reed unable to deter forward pressure and historically folding once opponents get her to the mat, Betss sees clear finishing equity on both the feet and the ground, making Gomes ITD the superior bet to a steep moneyline or a sweaty decision ticket.

Calling it ‘sacrificial lamb matchmaking,’ Guru backed Denise Gomes (-575) to knock out Elise Reed in round one. He highlighted Gomes’ clear athletic edge, notably heavier hands and occasional takedown threat, while Reed has been finished in two of her last four and rarely wins physical exchanges. Because the money-line is wide, Guru prefers KO-1 props or using Gomes as a parlay anchor.

Michael Lurato agreed Reed’s takedown defense is still a liability and predicted Gomes gets her out of there in the second or third round. Reed’s UFC run is a revolving door of win-loss results, and every loss came when opponents imposed grappling pressure. Lurato expects Gomes to march forward for 15 minutes throwing "heavy leather" before changing levels; once Reed’s hips hit the mat her lack of athleticism and grappling awareness usually ends the fight quickly. Because women’s MMA upsets do happen, Lurato will not pay the –550 tag, but he is comfortable with Gomes Round 2/3 or ITD props that convert the stylistic edge into plus money. He also noted that Gomes’ combination of takedowns and potential finish makes her a sneaky high-ceiling fantasy option if priced below the top salary tier.

Dan Tom favored Denise Gomes but refused to lay the –550 money-line, instead targeting finish props and DFS shares. Gomes owns the clear grappling edge, regularly hitting chain takedowns and pounding away from mount—a style that scores in every column on DraftKings. Elise Reed still operates out of her own small gym and has shown zero defensive wrestling growth, losing whenever an opponent can ride top. The 25-foot Apex cage shortens Reed’s karate movement and funnels her into Gomes’ clinch entries. Tom thinks a second-round TKO is the most likely outcome, making Inside-the-Distance (around –130) or submission/KO round props far more palatable than the chalky ML. For fantasy players forced to choose an expensive fighter, he prefers Gomes’ takedown-plus-ground-and-pound ceiling over other big favorites on the slate.

Gumby Vreeland added Denise Gomes by-knockout at +325 as the second leg of his +1281 parlay, insisting Elise Reed’s defense simply cannot hold up. Reed has already been stopped twice in the UFC, eats 5.3 significant strikes per minute, and relies on toughness rather than slick head movement. Vreeland noted Gomes lands with 57% accuracy, has finished three of her last four wins, and is the far heavier puncher in this matchup. If Reed chooses to "take punches all day," Vreeland expects the Brazilian to crack her wide-open chin inside the distance, making the +325 KO ticket—and the two-leg parlay—live dart throws for bettors.

Monk argued Denise Gomes is playable in all DFS formats despite the $9,500 salary because Elise Reed bleeds fantasy points. In Reed’s four UFC losses she has surrendered 128 DK points to Lupita Godinez, 121 to Sam Hughes, 118 to Sijara Eubanks, and 88 to Loma Lookboonmee, with three of those opponents making the optimal lineup. Reed’s 46% takedown defense and -1.37 significant strike differential invite big scores. Gomes averages 97 DK points in wins and has already posted a 132-point slate breaker. Monk expects her pressure striking and improving grappling to replicate the 100-plus point performances others have produced against Reed, making her worth the spend in both cash and GPPs.

Sniper picked Denise Gomes to defeat Elise Reed but labeled her $9,500 DraftKings price tag an auto-fade. Reed is competent enough to survive and Gomes lacks the dominant wrestling of other big favorites, making a ceiling score unlikely. With cheaper high-end options such as Michael Morales and Raul Rosas available, Sniper cannot justify paying top salary for a fighter projected to score 85–90 DK points in a decision. He would rather punt with Reed at $6,700 or allocate the funds elsewhere in GPP builds.

Kunath labeled Elise Reed ‘worm food’ and forecasted Denise Gomes to put her away by knockout in Round 2 or 3. Gomes’ forward pressure and raw horsepower have already melted lower-tier opposition, and Kunath believes Reed falls squarely into that bucket. Reed has been chewed up whenever she faced seasoned Muay Thai strikers—Angela Hill and Loma Lookboonmee both picked her apart—while Gomes lands with far more pop. Kunath is bullish on Gomes’ long-term upside, even mentioning she could be a future title challenger, something he cannot envision for Reed. With the bout taking place in the small Apex cage, he expects Gomes to walk Reed onto heavy combinations, overwhelm her with power, and separate her from consciousness before the final horn. Lay the KO/TKO prop instead of the bloated moneyline.

Daniel “Gumby” Vreeland urged bettors to lay the chalk on Denise Gomes or stick her in parlays, predicting a stoppage against Elise Reed. Vreeland dismissed Reed’s reputation for toughness, arguing it backfires versus a power puncher who thrives on extended exchanges. He pointed to Gomes’ knock-out of Bruna Brazil and a +1.44 significant-strike differential built on 6.1 strikes landed per minute as proof she can melt durable opponents. Reed, meanwhile, owns just a +0.35 differential and has never defended better than 46 percent of her opponent’s strikes. With Gomes seven years younger, more athletic and facing an opponent who “takes punches for a living,” Vreeland expects multiple clean right hands to find Reed’s chin and cash either the money-line or inside-the-distance prop.