Sean Zerillo advised passing on Du Plessis pre-fight and pouncing live after he survives Chimaev’s early barrage. Chimaev shoots within 20 seconds and often dominates round 1, so Zerillo expects sportsbooks to inflate Chimaev’s in-fight price—creating a discounted number on Du Plessis heading to round 2 or 3 when cardio and pace typically flip in the South African’s favor.

For bettors fading Chimaev’s gas-tank, Billy Ward recommended the ‘round 4, round 5, or decision’ prop on Dricus Du Plessis at roughly 4-to-1. Ward argues Du Plessis surges once Chimaev’s all-out style inevitably red-lines; Chimaev has never faced a full-size middleweight who can match his strength and force him to work for takedowns. Ward expects the fight’s "turn-around point" somewhere in round 3, making Du Plessis live in the championship rounds or on the scorecards. He suggests cash-strapped bettors take this pre-fight instead of staying awake for a 1 a.m. live-bet.

Claudia Bellofatto argued the +205 price on Dricus Du Plessis is too wide and represents pure value. She thinks the betting market is charging a "hype tax" for Khamzat Chimaev’s viral jaw-crank of Robert Whittaker, ignoring Du Plessis’s own 9-0 tear in less time than Chimaev’s 8-0 run. Bellofatto highlighted Du Plessis’s 6.12 significant strikes landed per minute, 54 % striking defence, switch-stance blitzes, and proven five-round gas tank (two recent 25-minute fights versus Sean Strickland and Israel Adesanya) as edges that could flip the late moments of a championship bout. She also questioned whether Chimaev can sustain his frenetic wrestling pace for 25 minutes on U.S. soil after three years fighting mostly in the UAE. With those intangibles plus stylistic chaos that Chimaev cannot game-plan for, Bellofatto recommends grabbing the underdog moneyline before books correct the number.

Jim Malaro said he is backing champion Dricus Du Plessis at UFC 319, pointing to Khamzat Chimaev’s trouble simply making it to fight night – repeated injuries, visa hang-ups, even a hospitalization. Malaro believes Chimaev will empty the gas tank in the opening two rounds, but Du Plessis’ legendary cardio means “you have to hit him with a Mack truck to stop him.” If the challenger fades, the final three rounds become Du Plessis time, making a decision ticket on the champ a "sneaky" value play at long odds. After losing money fading Du Plessis in previous bouts, Malaro said he is done doubting the South African’s ability to survive early storms and turn fights late.

Joe Osbourne said the value sits squarely on Dricus Du Plessis at +190 to beat Khamzat Chimaev and keep the belt. His case hinged on two angles. First, raw volume: Du Plessis throws 6.12 significant strikes per minute and carries real knockout power, whereas Chimaev’s UFC striking-defence rate is just 41 percent—well below divisional averages—so Joe expects Chimaev to eat leather early and often. Second, durability over five rounds: Osbourne noted Chimaev’s cardio dip in longer scraps with Gilbert Burns and Kamaru Usman, while Du Plessis, the larger man, has already banked multiple main-event rounds and remains undefeated in the promotion. Put together, a hittable favourite plus a power puncher who usually gets stronger as the clock ticks equals a live underdog Joe is happy to ride.

Joe Osbourne locked in Dricus Du Plessis at +170 on Bet99 as one of his three plus-money best bets for UFC 319. He emphasized that the reigning middleweight champion owns an 11-fight UFC winning streak and has never lost inside the promotion, arguing the line underrates that resume. Pairing those facts with Georges St-Pierre’s assessment that Du Plessis thrives in later rounds, Osbourne believes the champ’s well-rounded skill set and superior cardio can survive Chimaev’s opening blitz and cash the underdog ticket.

Georges St-Pierre framed Dricus Du Plessis as the side to back once the bout moves past the early storm. Calling the champion "a freak of nature" who is "good everywhere," St-Pierre pointed to Du Plessis’ proven stamina, noting he often looks stronger in later rounds. He expects Chimaev to put Du Plessis on his back early but advised the champ to accept that, avoid the inverted katagatami, and "get him in the deep waters." Because Chimaev noticeably slowed against Kamaru Usman and Gilbert Burns, St-Pierre believes Du Plessis gains the advantage after Round 2, making the +170 moneyline or live-betting Du Plessis after Round 1 attractive.

Dan Tom said Dricus Du Plessis could be a live dog if he leans on a grind-heavy approach. Tom outlined a strategy built around counter-wrestling, repeated clinch entries, dirty boxing and heavy pummelling to force Khamzat Chimaev to work every second. That style, Tom argued, would sap Chimaev’s gas tank and push the fight into the championship rounds where Chimaev has never been tested. The analysis implies value on Du Plessis round-4/round-5 props or an over-3.5 total, because the deeper the fight goes the more Du Plessis’ cardio edge should show.

Madlab Michael Lurato backed Du Plessis as the value side, stressing that the South African’s unorthodox stand-up routinely scrambles the reads of ‘pure’ strikers and wrestlers alike. He recalled how inside low-kicks and relentless teeps disrupted Sean Strickland’s stance and forced Adesanya into uncomfortable blitzes. Lurato expects Du Plessis to reuse that strategy here: chop Chimaev’s base, make him return kicks, then level-change while the favorite is on one leg, forcing wrestling scrambles that tax Chimaev’s questionable long-range cardio. The key coaching note is to make Chimaev ‘restart the system’ — pummel, clinch, dirty box and scrape the cage so the Chechen has to go back from step D to step A over and over instead of cruising from takedown to finish. If Du Plessis can survive round 1, Lurato thinks the fight tilts sharply in his favor, recommending live bets on Du Plessis after the opening frame and small stabs on Du Plessis by late KO/TKO.

Dan Tom said Du Plessis is the side to bet at plus money because the matchup is narrower than the line implies. He pointed out that Chimaev’s entire top-game system hinges on riding opponents against the fence; when forced into open-mat half-guard — as we saw against Kamaru Usman — his offense deteriorates into blanketing while the man on bottom lands more strikes. Tom highlighted Du Plessis’ recent technical fixes: he now swims his knee inside and keeps the underhook below the hip instead of reaching high, the exact adjustment Usman used to escape Chimaev’s front-head threats. Film from the Derek Brunson bout showed Du Plessis hitting that same knee-to-elbow single-leg swim multiple times, evidence he can survive the initial wrestling burst. Tom also noted Du Plessis owns the larger UFC sample (7-0) and has routinely weaponized cardio — baiting Israel Adesanya into over-punching before melting him late. If Du Plessis breaks the A-to-F takedown sequence Chimaev relies on and forces resets, Chimaev’s gas tank becomes a question in rounds 4-5. Tom is therefore betting Du Plessis moneyline and sprinking round-4/5 props.

Madlab Michael Lurato said he is backing Du Plessis as a near +195 underdog on the UFC 319 money-line. Lurato argued that every time he has doubted Du Plessis he has been burned, noting the champion’s 18-1 record at middleweight and repeated ability to explode late even when he looks fatigued. He highlighted Chimaev’s limited sample beyond two rounds—only one fight that reached the third—and pointed to cardio red flags in the Usman and Burns bouts where Hamzat’s pace noticeably dipped. Lurato believes Du Plessis is physically strong enough to survive the expected early wrestling onslaught and, once the fight moves past the first ten minutes, the champion’s proven five-round engine and willingness to brawl will flip momentum. He advised bettors to take the dog or wait for a live line after Round 2 rather than laying ‑240 on Chimaev.

Michael Bisping predicted that Dricus Du Plessis will retain the middleweight belt at UFC 319 by surviving Khamzat Chimaev’s early wrestling onslaught and finishing the fight late. Bisping expects Chimaev to dominate the first round and probably snag the second with takedowns, but believes Du Plessis’ rebuilt gas-tank, larger frame and willingness to march forward will let him weather those storms. He compared Du Plessis’ grappling and size combination to a hybrid of Gilbert Burns’ submission savvy and Kamaru Usman’s defensive wrestling, noting both men took Chimaev the distance. Bisping emphasized that Chimaev has never proven he can maintain his pace for five rounds, calling him "the best first-round fighter the sport has ever seen" but questioning whether a "sprinter" can become a "marathon runner." Once Chimaev’s output drops—projected around round 3—Bisping sees Du Plessis growing in confidence, landing the heavier shots, and potentially forcing a stoppage in the 4th or 5th. Bettors looking for value, he says, should consider Du Plessis live after round 2 or target ‘Du Plessis by late finish’ props.

For the main event Welch forecasted Du Plessis winning by fourth- or fifth-round TKO. He reasoned that Chimaev blitzes at full throttle and fades if he cannot secure an early finish, pointing to the Gilbert Burns and Kamaru Usman decisions. Du Plessis, riding a streak over Sean Strickland and Israel Adesanya, has shown he can gut through fatigue and outlast opponents. Welch believes surviving the initial eight-minute storm allows the champion’s pressure and ground-and-pound to take over late.

Sniper sided with Dricus Du Plessis as well, calling the plus-money line "utter disrespect." He views the fight as binary: either Chimaev smashes early or Du Plessis survives and takes over late. Because the market expects a finish inside 2.5 rounds (-125) and ownership projections have Chimaev near 60 %, Sniper intends to cap his Chimaev exposure around 35-40 % and load up on Du Plessis in all formats. He does not recommend stacking in cash games given the ‑325 inside-the-distance prop, instead advising players to pick a side—preferably the cheaper dog with better late-fight cardio and five-round experience.

Monk called Dricus Du Plessis a "criminally" under-priced underdog at $7,300 and picked him to defeat Khamzat Chimaev at UFC 319. Du Plessis averages 6.0 significant strikes per minute, attempts almost one takedown per five minutes, and never fades late, while Chimaev’s control time and takedown success plummet after the opening round. Monk emphasized that Chimaev has never seen a fourth round; Du Plessis routinely turns fights around in rounds 2-3 and has the chin to survive the expected early onslaught. With the champ sitting at +190, Monk will play the fight in every GPP lineup but plans a 60-40 exposure split in favor of Du Plessis, expecting massive ownership on Chimaev and a potential cardio collapse if the under 2.5 prop misses.

Gumby Vreeland likes Dricus Du Plessis by knockout at +500. He expects the bout to clear 2.5 rounds but believes Du Plessis’ relentless pace will cause Khamzat Chimaev to "wilt" once fatigue sets in, setting up a swarm of strikes or standing TKO. Pairing the over 2.5 with the KO prop, Vreeland argues, leverages Du Plessis’ superior gas tank and finishing instincts for a five-to-one return.

Jeff Fox also sided with Dricus Du Plessis, saying he actually trusts the champion more than Chimaev right now. Fox argued Chimaev’s gas tank tops out around five minutes – a weakness magnified since his bout with long-COVID – and cited the Usman fight where a late-notice Usman stole two rounds on one scorecard. He emphasized that Du Plessis ‘looks like he’s dying’ early but routinely catches a second wind and has finished opponents deep into fights during his 11-fight winning streak. Because Fox doubts Chimaev can secure an immediate finish, he sees striking value in the champ at +210.

Gumby Vreeland said Dricus Du Plessis is the side at +210 against Khamzat Chimaev. Vreeland hammered the cardio gap, noting Chimaev’s bursts rarely last longer than five minutes and pointing to lingering long-COVID issues. He reminded listeners that one judge gave Kamaru Usman rounds 2 and 3 on ten-days’ notice and that Gilbert Burns lit Chimaev up late. Du Plessis, meanwhile, is 9-0 in the UFC, always finds a second wind, and is notoriously hard to finish. Vreeland expects Chimaev to land early takedowns but sees Du Plessis scrambling up, forcing extended exchanges, and taking over in the championship rounds. With the champ getting plus-money despite two title defenses, Vreeland labeled him a "live underdog" worth a straight bet.

Matty Betss advocated taking Dricus Du Plessis by knockout at +500 in the UFC 319 main event against Khamzat Chimaev. Betss acknowledged that Chimaev has ballooned from a slight favorite to –260 on the money-line after improving to 14–0 and dominating Robert Whittaker, but argued the number is now bloated. He noted Du Plessis’ knack for surviving bad spots on the mat—citing escapes against Derek Brunson and a comeback rear-naked choke of Israel Adesanya—and pointed out that the South African hits much harder than most middleweights. Betss reasoned that Chimaev’s usual wrestle-heavy blitz burns cardio in the first two rounds; in a five-round fight a prolonged striking exchange would allow Du Plessis to “find that chin and knock him out.” Given the stylistic volatility and the generous +500 price, Betss labeled the Du Plessis KO prop the smartest way to attack the underdog.

The Weasle warned that Du Plessis’ habit of throwing slow, naked switch-kicks is a disaster against an elite wrestler like Chimaev. He highlighted two film clips: Darren Till simply grabbed a telegraphed leg kick and dumped Du Plessis to the mat, and Brunson did the same earlier in the fight. Even non-wrestlers turned those catches into dominant top positions. Chimaev routinely times entries off caught kicks and low-levels underneath elbow frames, so The Weasle expects the first caught kick to translate into a blast double or immediate back-take. He suggested fading Du Plessis takedown defense props (Under 0.5 takedowns surrendered is +money at some books) and instead betting markets like “Chimaev to land the first takedown” or live-betting Chimaev once Du Plessis starts kicking. The core thesis: every telegraphed kick becomes a built-in takedown attempt for Khamzat, drastically shortening Du Plessis’ path to an upset.