Matty Betss endorsed Dustin Jacoby by KO/TKO at +190, calling it a prime “cycle leg.” Jacoby owns three straight knockout wins and a Glory Kickboxing resume that includes a 2014 bout with Alex Pereira. Betss likes how the undersized Apex octagon forces exchanges—Jacoby already lands 5.3 significant strikes per minute on 51 % accuracy and posts 1.25 knockdowns per 15 minutes. Debutant Bruno Lopes gassed late on Contender Series and has never faced a ranked striker. Matty doubts Lopes can wrestle long enough to keep Jacoby grounded given the American’s 63 % takedown defense and quick get-ups. If the Brazilian tires while chasing clinches, Jacoby’s precision boxing and leg kicks should eventually fold him. With the KO prop at +190 versus a −225 moneyline, Betss would rather sweat the finish than 15 minutes of scorecards.

Mont sided with Dustin Jacoby at $8,800, arguing the veteran kickboxer’s defensive wrestling has quietly tightened up while Bruno Lopez relies almost exclusively on takedowns to win. Jacoby has allowed more than two takedowns only once since 2021 (Darren Stewart) and still kept every opponent under nine minutes of control. Lopez’s gaudy 90 % control-time figure is almost entirely the result of his forgettable Gaudzy Zula fight, where he landed just 33 total strikes in 15 minutes despite spending nine of those minutes on top. On the feet Lopez gets out-landed overall and owns some of the worst leg-kick defense in the division—problematic against a guy who built his career around chopping kicks. Mont acknowledged Jacoby’s finish equity is moderate, but said 80–90 points via clean striking volume and leg-kick damage can still beat his slightly inflated salary. Lopez is merely “an OK dart” for large-field leverage, but Mont will be overweight Jacoby in his GPP pool and treat the bout as low-priority exposure otherwise.

Dan Tom said he is comfortable using Dustin Jacoby as a parlay piece because the veteran is 3-1-1 inside the UFC Apex, strings combinations like a pool player and has survived wrestling-heavy storms from Ion Cutelaba without being controlled. Jacoby’s habit of answering every pocket exchange with a straight counter makes him the far cleaner striker than Bruno Lopes, whom Tom dismissed as a "throw spaghetti at the wall" brawler. That said, Tom still advised a small insurance ticket on the opponent’s Round-1 KO prop— just as he did when he cashed Kennedy Nzechukwu +1800 in a similar spot— because Jacoby sometimes starts cold and both men carry real power in the small cage. Suggested plan: fold Jacoby money-line into parlays, then sprinkle the Lopes Round-1 KO number if bookmakers hang anything in the +1200 range or better to offset the parlay exposure.

Madlab Michael Lurato kept it simple: Bruno Lopes ‘throws spaghetti at the wall’ while Dustin Jacoby is a high-pedigree kickboxer who always fights down the centre line. Jacoby strings punches together like a pool player planning three shots ahead, whereas Lopes routinely gets baited into the wrong exchanges and has already been knocked out once on Dana White’s Contender Series. Madlab does not completely trust Jacoby’s consistency but believes Lopes’ willingness to brawl will gift the veteran clean counters all night. Because Jacoby’s technical striking is several tiers above and Lopes’ defensive reactions are late, Lurato expects Jacoby to sting him on a mistake and eventually finish the job. Betting angle: play Jacoby by KO/TKO (prop currently unpriced in the transcript but implied value) rather than the –190 money-line, as the stoppage route is far more likely than a decision given their styles.

MMA Guru predicted Dustin Jacoby will stop Bruno Lopes in the second or third round. He called Jacoby one of the most underrated light-heavyweights, praising his technical kickboxing and durability—Reyes is the only man to truly finish him and that took a flying knee plus follow-ups. Lopes, in Guru’s view, is a straight-line puncher who looks even less threatening than Vitor Petrino, a stylistic twin Jacoby just out-boxed. Guru expects an uneasy moment in round one where Lopes’ power clips Jacoby, but once the range is set Jacoby’s volume and precision take over. He specifically forecast a front-kick or straight right to the body folding Lopes for a TKO. Betting advice: skip the ‑190 moneyline and take Jacoby by KO/TKO or inside-the-distance at plus money.